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At least 469 records · Page 26

StratoFIRE: Modeling Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere

The most extreme manifestation of a fire–weather interaction is the formation of pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) thunderstorms, triggered by super-heated updrafts, which can eject smoke at altitudes exceeding 20 Km. In this study, we investigated climate-related impacts from the most intensive pyroCb-triggered injection of smoke in the stratosphere: the Australian New Year wildfires in 2019/2020. We first provide a general overview of the vision and objectives of the StratoFIRE project. With the aid of the global chemistry-climate model EMAC, we then simulate radiative and chemical perturbations in the stratosphere in relation to 0.9 Tg smoke in the stratosphere assuming different injection heights, from 13 to 16 Km. The simulation of stratospheric optical depth perturbations were found to be sensitive to the assumed injection height, with a maximum height at 16 Km showing the best agreement with the GLOSSAC and SAGE-ISS aerosol extinction observations.

PyroCb↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-11382-DND

Long-range transport of ozone precursor species and carbonaceous aerosols emitted by wildfires may affect the atmospheric composition and regional climate far away from the location of the fires. Major outbreaks of fires occurred in 3 areas of Asia, Kazakhstan, Siberia, and Thailand, during the spring of 2008. Satellite and aircraft-based observations and trajectory studies have identified the transit of the plumes from these fires across the Pacific. We have conducted simulations of the effects of these fires on the atmospheric composition using the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS). RAQMS is a global scale meteorological and chemical modeling system with unified (stratosphere/troposphere) chemistry module. Model results, for example, indicate that increases of 10 ppbv in upper tropospheric ozone at 180W longitude and northern mid-latitudes in April, 2008 could be attributed to these fires. Large increases in aerosol optical depth due to carbonaceous aerosols are also seen nearer the fire location. Both tropospheric ozone and carbonaceous aerosols influence the atmospheric energy balance and climate. We use an off-line radiative transfer model along with the RAQMS chemical and aerosol analyses to calculate the direct radiative forcing during April, 2008, due to Asian wildfire emissions. Arctic indirect radiative forcing due to these emissions are evaluated using RAQMS aerosol extinction analyses in conjunction with MODIS retrievals of cloud liquid water and effective radius. We will discuss the radiative forcing results and the relative influences of the different fire events.

Murali Natarajan↗

Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

Oman, Luke D.↗

Thermal Analysis and Testing of Fastrac Gas Generator Design

The Fastrac Engine is being developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to help meet the goal of substantially reducing the cost of access to space. This engine relies on a simple gas-generator cycle, which burns a small amount of RP-1 and oxygen to provide gas to drive the turbine and then exhausts the spent fuel. The Fastrac program envisions a combination of analysis, design and hot-fire evaluation testing. This paper provides the supporting thermal analysis of the gas generator design. In order to ensure that the design objectives were met, the evaluation tests have started on a component level and a total of 15 tests of different durations were completed to date at MSFC. The correlated thermal model results will also be compared against hot-fire thermocouple data gathered.

Nguyen, H.↗

Combustion Model of Supersonic Rocket Exhausts in an Entrained Flow Enclosure

This paper describes the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model developed to simulate the supersonic rocket exhaust in an entrained flow cylinder. The model can be used to study the plume-induced environment due to static firing tests of the Taurus-II launch vehicle. The finite-rate chemistry is used to model the combustion process involving rocket propellant (RP-1) and liquid oxidizer (LOX). A similar chemical reacting model is also used to simulate the mixing of rocket plume and ambient air. The model provides detailed information on the gas concentration and other flow parameters within the enclosed region, thus allowing different operating scenarios to be examined in an efficient manner. It is shown that the real gas influence is significant and yields better agreement with the theory.

Vu, Bruce T.↗

Simulating Pyrocumulonimbus Clouds Using a Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, driven by extreme fires under favorable meteorological conditions, can inject smoke into the stratosphere at magnitudes comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions, potentially altering the global radiative balance and atmospheric composition. However, simulating pyroCb is particularly challenging in Earth system models. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we developed a novel global multiscale framework to model pyroCb events in California, which includes a high‐resolution fire radiative power time series, a one‐dimensional plume‐rise parameterization, a fire‐induced vertical water vapor transport scheme, and a surface wildfire sensible heat flux representation. Our simulation successfully reproduces many pyroCb features, including cloud height, spatiotemporal evolution, and convective intensity in comparison with satellite and ground‐based observations. Sensitivity experiments show that realistic pyroCb simulation depends on vertical water vapor transport. These advances provide a basis for future exploration of pyroCb impacts at regional and global scales within climate models.

E3SM↗

Impact of grassland fire dynamics on particulate emission factors

Understanding particulate emission factors in grassland fires is critical for improving air quality assessments and refining emissions inventories. This study explores the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of fire processes and their influence on particulate emissions. Traditional emission factor inventories often rely on static values, overlooking the spatially and temporally variable dynamics of fire behavior. Through field experiments conducted at Konza Prairie Biological Station measuring emissions with uncrewed aerial vehicles, and computational modeling using HIGRAD/FIRETEC, this research highlights the dependency of emission production on localized fire dynamics, including ignition patterns, fuel properties, and atmospheric conditions. The results demonstrate a need for fire dynamic considerations to accurately capture emissions variability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Informing Dionaea muscipula (Venus Flytrap) Conservation Through Habitat Modeling and Forecasted Land Cover Change

The carnivorous Dionaea muscipula (Venus flytrap, Droseraceae) is threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. For rare plant species like D. muscipula with specialized habitat requirements and fragmented distribution, habitat suitability modeling is an important method for guiding conservation efforts. To support the D. muscipula conservation, this study: 1) modeled suitable habitat across the extent of the species’ known range and 2) forecasted land cover change due to development in the study area to the year 2050. Habitat modeling was conducted by overlaying high-confidence presence data observed since 1980 (n=292) with environmental predictor variables (n=23). Suitable habitats were then compared with land cover change to identify areas at risk of habitat loss due to human development. According to those models, nearly half (107.1km2) of modeled highly suitable D. muscipula habitat outside of protected lands are likely to face development pressure. On the other hand, 39.4% (139.9km2) of highly suitable habitats overlap with protected lands and may serve as lasting D. muscipula habitat. Results from this study can inform D. muscipula conservation, including targeted seed banking of populations at risk of extirpation, prioritization of habitats for protection and management, and reintroduction to suitable habitats within protected areas.

Kathryn Caruso↗

Simple models for the shuttle remote manipulator system

The investigation is aimed at establishing a series of simple models which can be used to study the forces and moments which occur due to the reaction control system (RCS) jet plume firings during a deployment or retrieval of an IUS type payload. The models considered in this investigation are primarily planar in nature. In this study primary attention is given to the roles the payload play in determining the overall moments on the remote manipulator system arm.

Fowler, W. T.↗

Passive Rocket Diffuser Testing: Performance Similitude Via Nozzle Contour Modification

Subscale rocket testing offers a chance to examine exhaust plume behavior and prove out auxiliary systems early in a development cycle, when the cost of design iteration remains low. Despite the utility of experimentation, perfect similitude between a rocket engine and a scaled model is unobtainable; choices must be made to prioritize the reproduction of certain parameters at the expense of others. The experimentalist’s toolkit contains a variety of techniques to achieve this selective similarity. Determination of the appropriate tool is dependent on a test series’ specific objectives, facility limitations, and financial considerations. Preservation of full nozzle geometry is crucial if its internal flow is of interest. However, subscale thrusters often serve as a simple plume source in the evaluation of adjacent phenomena: vehicle base pressures, retropropulsive flows, supersonic diffuser performance, refractory erosion, deflector cooling, impingement shock structures, etc. In such cases, it may be permissible to rework the nozzle geometry to compensate for discrepancies in subscale propellant pressure, temperature, or chemical composition. Thrust, pressure, Mach number, heat flux, and myriad other parameters can be used to ground the altered designs. Subscale diffuser testing at the full chamber pressure of flight hardware is occasionally infeasible. It is hypothesized that, absent a means of backpressure reduction, comparable performance may be obtained for a prescribed motive fluid by maintaining scaled engine mass flow and nozzle exit geometry at the expense of throat geometry, exit pressure, and Mach number. The present work offers discrete empirical support for this mass-flow-based approach to contour modification.

subscale↗

North African savanna fires and atmospheric carbon dioxide

The effect of north African savanna fires on atmospheric CO2 is investigated using a tracer transport model. The model uses winds from operational numerical weather prediction analyses and provides CO2 concentrations as a function of space and time. After a spin-up period of several years, biomass-burning sources are added, and model experiments are run for an additional year, utilizing various estimates of CO2 sources. The various model experiments show that biomass burning in the north African savannas significantly affects CO2 concentrations in South America. The effect is more pronounced during the period from January through March, when biomass burning in South America is almost nonexistent. During this period, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in parts of South America typically may increase by 0.5 to 0.75 ppm at 970 mbar, the average pressure of the lowest model layer. These figures are above the probable uncertainty level, as model runs with biomass-burning sources estimated from independent studies using distinct data sets and techniques indicate. From May through September, when severe biomass burning occurs in South America, the effect of north African savanna fires over South America has become generally small at 970 mbar, but north of the equator it may be of the same magnitude or larger than the effect of South American fires. The CO2 concentration increase in the extreme northern and southern portions of South America, however, is mostly due to southern African fires, whose effect may be 2-3 times larger than the effect of South American fires at 970 mbar. Even in the central part of the continent, where local biomass-burning emissions are maximum, southern African fires contribute to at least 15% of the CO2 concentration increase at 970 mbar. At higher levels in the atmosphere, less CO2 emitted by north African savanna fires reaches South America, and at 100 mbar no significant amount of CO2 is transported across the Atlantic Ocean. The vertical structure of the CO2 concentration increase due to biomass burning differs substantially, depending on whether sources are local or remote. A prominent maximum of CO2 concentration increase in the lower layers characterizes the effect of local sources, whereas a more homogeneous profile of CO2 concentration increase characterizes the effect of remote sources. The results demonstrate the strong remote effects of African biomoass burning which, owing to the general circulation of the atmosphere, are felt as far away as South America.

Iacobellis, Sam F.↗

International Space Station Model Correlation Analysis

This paper summarizes the on-orbit structural dynamic data and the related modal analysis, model validation and correlation performed for the International Space Station (ISS) configuration ISS Stage ULF7, 2015 Dedicated Thruster Firing (DTF). The objective of this analysis is to validate and correlate the analytical models used to calculate the ISS internal dynamic loads and compare the 2015 DTF with previous tests. During the ISS configurations under consideration, on-orbit dynamic measurements were collected using the three main ISS instrumentation systems; Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS) and the Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS). The measurements were recorded during several nominal on-orbit DTF tests on August 18, 2015. Experimental modal analyses were performed on the measured data to extract modal parameters including frequency, damping, and mode shape information. Correlation and comparisons between test and analytical frequencies and mode shapes were performed to assess the accuracy of the analytical models for the configurations under consideration. These mode shapes were also compared to earlier tests. Based on the frequency comparisons, the accuracy of the mathematical models is assessed and model refinement recommendations are given. In particular, results of the first fundamental mode will be discussed, nonlinear results will be shown, and accelerometer placement will be assessed.

Modal Analysis↗

Oregon Wildfires: Integrating ECOSTRESS to Map & Analyze Vegetation Moisture for Wildfire Modeling

Wildfire season in the western USA is starting earlier and gaining in intensity. The Bootleg Fire in Southern Oregon began on July 6th, 2021, and burned over 1675 km2 before it was fully contained on August 15th, 2021. Evapotranspiration (ET) is one indicator of vegetation moisture and there is interest in using high-resolution ET products from ECOsystem and Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) in future wildfire modeling. In partnership with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and US Forest Service, the team examined ECOSTRESS ET for the two years before the Bootleg Fire and assessed the relationship between ET, topography, and vegetation. Remotely sensed data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) along with ancillary data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and Landscape Fire Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) were incorporated. The team examined data in relation to soil burn severity from the Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) program. From ET median composites for April 1st – July 5th, 2021 and 2019, the Bootleg Fire area showed a 7 mm/day decrease in ET and a relative 75% decrease in ET between 2019 and 2021. Approximately 6% of the Bootleg Fire area was identified as having a high soil burn severity and these areas were found predominantly in the evergreen forest land cover class and northward facing slopes with a mean ET decrease of 3 mm/day between 2019 and 2021. The team also analyzed ECOSTRESS Water Use Efficiency products as an additional vegetation moisture indicator of pre-fire conditions in the study area. The end products will allow the partners to assess if higher resolution vegetation moisture datasets from ECOSTRESS will improve wildfire modeling for other susceptible areas.

Brenna Hatch↗

Fire Detection Tradeoffs as a Function of Vehicle Parameters

Fire survivability depends on the detection of and response to a fire before it has produced an unacceptable environment in the vehicle. This detection time is the result of interplay between the fire burning and growth rates; the vehicle size; the detection system design; the transport time to the detector (controlled by the level of mixing in the vehicle); and the rate at which the life support system filters the atmosphere, potentially removing the detected species or particles. Given the large differences in critical vehicle parameters (volume, mixing rate and filtration rate) the detection approach that works for a large vehicle (e.g. the ISS) may not be the best choice for a smaller crew capsule. This paper examines the impact of vehicle size and environmental control and life support system parameters on the detectability of fires in comparison to the hazard they present. A lumped element model was developed that considers smoke, heat, and toxic product release rates in comparison to mixing and filtration rates in the vehicle. Recent work has quantified the production rate of smoke and several hazardous species from overheated spacecraft polymers. These results are used as the input data set in the lumped element model in combination with the transport behavior of major toxic products released by overheating spacecraft materials to evaluate the necessary alarm thresholds to enable appropriate response to the fire hazard.

microgravity↗

Fire Detection Tradeoffs as a Function of Vehicle Parameters

Fire survivability depends on the detection of and response to a fire before it has produced an unacceptable environment in the vehicle. This detection time is the result of interplay between the fire burning and growth rates; the vehicle size; the detection system design; the transport time to the detector (controlled by the level of mixing in the vehicle); and the rate at which the life support system filters the atmosphere, potentially removing the detected species or particles. Given the large differences in critical vehicle parameters (volume, mixing rate and filtration rate) the detection approach that works for a large vehicle (e.g. the ISS) may not be the best choice for a smaller crew capsule. This paper examines the impact of vehicle size and environmental control and life support system parameters on the detectability of fires in comparison to the hazard they present. A lumped element model was developed that considers smoke, heat, and toxic product release rates in comparison to mixing and filtration rates in the vehicle. Recent work has quantified the production rate of smoke and several hazardous species from overheated spacecraft polymers. These results are used as the input data set in the lumped element model in combination with the transport behavior of major toxic products released by overheating spacecraft materials to evaluate the necessary alarm thresholds to enable appropriate response to the fire hazard.

microgravity↗

A VARI-Based Relative Greenness from MODIS Data for Computing the Fire Potential Index

The Fire Potential Index (FPI) relies on relative greenness (RG) estimates from remote sensing data. The Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI), derived from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery is currently used to calculate RG operationally. Here we evaluated an alternate measure of RG using the Visible Atmospheric Resistant Index (VARI) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data. VARI was chosen because it has previously been shown to have the strongest relationship with Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) out of a wide selection of MODIS-derived indices in southern California shrublands. To compare MODIS-based NDVI-FPI and VARI-FPI, RG was calculated from a 6-year time series of MODIS composites and validated against in-situ observations of LFM as a surrogate for vegetation greenness. RG from both indices was then compared in terms of its performance for computing the FPI using historical wildfire data. Computed RG values were regressed against ground-sampled LFM at 14 sites within Los Angeles County. The results indicate the VARI-based RG consistently shows a stronger relationship with observed LFM than NDVI-based RG. With an average R2 of 0.727 compared to a value of only 0.622 for NDVI-RG, VARI-RG showed stronger relationships at 13 out of 14 sites. Based on these results, daily FPI maps were computed for the years 2001 through 2005 using both NDVI-RG and VARI-RG. These were then validated against 12,490 fire detections from the MODIS active fire product using logistic regression. Deviance of the logistic regression model was 408.8 for NDVI-FPI and 176.2 for VARI-FPI. The c-index was found to be 0.69 and 0.78, respectively. The results show that VARI-FP outperforms NDVI-FPI in distinguishing between fire and no-fire events for historical wildfire data in southern California for the given time period.

Schneider, P.↗

Develop a Model Component

During my internship at NASA, I was a model developer for Ground Support Equipment (GSE). The purpose of a model developer is to develop and unit test model component libraries (fluid, electrical, gas, etc.). The models are designed to simulate software for GSE (Ground Special Power, Crew Access Arm, Cryo, Fire and Leak Detection System, Environmental Control System (ECS), etc. ~.) before they are implemented into hardware. These models support verifying local control and remote software for End-Item Software Under Test (SUT). The model simulates the physical behavior (function, state, limits and 110) of each end-item and it's dependencies as defined in the Subsystem Interface Table, Software Requirements & Design Specification (SRDS), Ground Integrated Schematic (GIS), and System Mechanical Schematic.(SMS). The software of each specific model component is simulated through MATLAB's Simulink program. The intensiv~ model development life cycle is a.s follows: Identify source documents; identify model scope; update schedule; preliminary design review; develop model requirements; update model.. scope; update schedule; detailed design review; create/modify library component; implement library components reference; implement subsystem components; develop a test script; run the test script; develop users guide; send model out for peer review; the model is sent out for verific~tionlvalidation; if there is empirical data, a validation data package is generated; if there is not empirical data, a verification package is generated; the test results are then reviewed; and finally, the user. requests accreditation, and a statement of accreditation is prepared. Once each component model is reviewed and approved, they are intertwined together into one integrated model. This integrated model is then tested itself, through a test script and autotest, so that it can be concluded that all models work conjointly, for a single purpose. The component I was assigned, specifically, was a fluid component, a discrete pressure switch. The switch takes a fluid pressure input, and if the pressure is greater than a designated cutoff pressure, the switch would stop fluid flow.

Ensey, Tyler S.↗