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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Aware Deep Learning for Particle Accelerators

Standard deep learning models for classification and regression applications are ideal for capturing complex system dynamics. However, their predictions can be arbitrarily inaccurate when the input samples are not similar to the training data. Implementation of distance aware uncertainty estimation can be used to detect these scenarios and provide a level of confidence associated with their predictions. In this paper, we present results from using Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) methods for errant beam prediction at Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) accelerator (classification) and we provide an uncertainty aware surrogate model for the Fermi National Accelerator Lab (FNAL) Booster Accelerator Complex (regression).

Rajput, Kishansingh↗
DOE OSTI2022

Castanha et al. 2018: Hopland Lysimeter 13C-Labeled Root Litter Decomposition Study.

The breakdown and decomposition of plant inputs are critical for nutrient cycling, soil development, and climate-ecosystem feedbacks, but uncertainties persist in how the rates and products of litter decomposition are affected by soil temperature, rhizosphere, and depth of input. To elucidate these questions we measured the effects of soil warming (+ 4 °C), rhizosphere, and depth of litter placement on the decomposition of Avena fatua (wild oat grass) root litter in a Mediterranean grassland ecosystem. Field lysimeters were subjected to three environmental treatments (heating, control, and plant removal) and three 13C-labeled root litter addition treatments (to A horizon, to B horizon, and no-addition disturbance control) for each of two harvest time points. We buried root litter in February 2014 and measured loss of 13C in CO2 from the soil surface and in leachate as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) over two growing seasons. At the end of each of the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons we recovered the 13C remaining in the soil. Loss of root litter C occurred almost entirely via heterotrophic respiration, with an estimated < 2% lost as DOC during the initial decay period. The added roots were broken down and incorporated into bulk soil material very quickly; only ~ 30% of added root was visible after 6 months. In the first growing season, decomposition occurred faster in the B than in the A horizon, the latter having greater moisture limitation. Subsequently, there was almost no further decomposition in the B horizon. After two growing seasons, less than 20% of the added root litter C remained in the A or B horizons of all environmental treatments. Heating did not stimulate decomposition, likely because it exacerbated the moisture limitation. However, while plots without plants dried down more slowly than plots with plants, their decomposition rate was not significantly greater, possibly due to the lack of rhizosphere processes such as priming. We conclude that in this Mediterranean grassland ecosystem, soil moisture, which is affected by season, depth, heating, and rhizosphere, plays a dominant role in mediating the effect of those factors on root litter decomposition, which after two seasons did not differ by depth or by treatment.The files in this dataset comprise (1) 13C-labeled litter additions made to each plot, (2) litter recovery after each of 2 growing seasons, (3) periodical soil flux measurements, (4) leachate measurements, and continuously monitored soil (5) temperature and (6) moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessment of Finite Element Models for Fall From Heights Injury Scenarios

Finite element (FE) computational models of the whole human body are being used to investigate the injury modalities and mechanisms arising from suited astronauts’ ExtraVehicular Activities (EVAs). These FE whole body models – simplified Elemance and THUMS pedestrian versions – have undergone a series of verification and validation (V&V) assessments for applications in automotive, domestic, and contact sports arenas. However, the FE models’ Modeling and Simulation (M&S) credibility assessments for simulating suited astronaut injuries due to fall from heights in altered gravity environments are limited. The current study evaluates the M&S credibility of simplified Elemance and THUMS pedestrian FE models based on eight credibility factors – data pedigree, input pedigree, code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, referent validation, results uncertainty, and results robustness – as per NASA-STD-7009A [1]. These credibility factors were assigned ordinal scores ranging between 0 to 4, with a score of 0 in the case of insufficient evidence and 4 when all data for the model is known, used appropriately, and traceable to the Real-World System (RWS) with acceptable accuracy, precision, and uncertainty. The credibility factor sufficiency thresholds were assigned upon guidance from NASA EVA subject matter experts. The factor scores were ascertained through the evaluation of M&S credibility assessment procedures described in the published literature and FE model reports. The M&S credibility scores for the Elemance and THUMS FE models vary between 1 and 3 for data pedigree, input pedigree, and referent validation credibility factors, and between 0 and 1 for code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, results uncertainty and results robustness. The results show that these FE models are credible for simulating fall from heights injury scenarios in specific kinematic and kinetic ranges that correlate with highway and contact sports-related external conditions. Multiple credibility elevation strategies are prescribed to improve the Elemance and THUMS models’ credibility for use in the EVA fall from height injury scenarios.

R A Perkins↗
DOE OSTI2023

How does uncertainty of soil organic carbon stock affect the calculation of carbon budgets and soil carbon credits for croplands in the U.S. Midwest?

Cropland carbon budget depicts the amount of carbon flowing in and out of agroecosystems and the changes in carbon stocks of soil and living biomass during the same period. Soil carbon credit is the additional change in soil carbon stock under certain farming practices compared with the business-as-usual practices. Accurately calculating cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is critical to assessing climate change mitigation potential in agroecosystems. The calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is sensitive to local soil and climatic conditions, especially initial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, which is determined by both SOC concentration (SOC%) and bulk density (Bulk_Density). SOC stock data are either from soil sampling or gridded public survey data. In agroecosystem models, SOC stock data are a key model input for quantifying cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. However, various types and degrees of uncertainties exist in SOC stock datasets, which propagate to the quantification of SOC stock change. In particular, a large discrepancy is found in two widely used SOC stock datasets — Rapid Carbon Assessment dataset (RaCA) and Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO) — in the U.S. Midwest, with a relative difference (quantified using Normalized Root Mean Square Error, NRMSE) of 48.0% for 0–30 cm SOC stock between the two datasets. It remains largely unclear how uncertainty in SOC stocks affects the calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. To address this question, we used a well-validated process-based agroecosystem model, ecosys, to assess the impacts of SOC stock uncertainty on carbon budget and soil carbon credit calculation in the U.S. Midwestern corn-soybean rotation systems. Our results reveal the following findings: (1) A sizable discrepancy exists in simulated cropland carbon budget between using gSSURGO and using RaCA for their SOC% and Bulk_Density as model inputs, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of only 0.4 for simulated change of SOC stock (ΔSOC) using these two different soil datasets. (2) Simulated cropland carbon budget components were more sensitive to initial SOC% than to Bulk_Density. For example, the upper and lower quartiles of multi-year averaged ΔSOC were –29.8 and 4.8 gC/m 2 /year for the selected counties respectively, with an uncertainty of 13.7 and 0.7 gC/m 2 /year induced by uncertainties in initial SOC% and Bulk_Density, respectively. (3) Both simulated ΔSOC and its uncertainty were negatively correlated with initial SOC%, whereas ΔSOC was negatively correlated with air temperature, and ΔSOC uncertainty was positively correlated with air temperature. (4) The uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits was much smaller compared with the uncertainty of calculated absolute carbon budgets assuming the same SOC stock uncertainty level in the inputs. Specifically, in our assessment comparing planting cover crops vs no cover crop, the uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits induced by initial SOC% uncertainty was less than 4% (relative to the quantified value of the soil carbon credits) for 90% of the cases. Our analysis highlights that high accuracy measurement of SOC% as inputs is needed for the calculation of cropland carbon budgets; however, soil carbon credit quantification is much less sensitive to the initial SOC% inputs, and the current publicly available soil datasets (e.g., gSSURGO) are largely suitable for the calculation of soil

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust clustering of the local Milky Way stellar kinematic substructures with Gaia eDR3

Understanding local stellar kinematic substructures in the solar neighbourhood helps build a complete picture of the formation of the Milky Way, as well as an empirical phase space distribution of dark matter that would inform detection experiments. We apply the clustering algorithm HDBSCAN on the Gaia early third data release to identify a list of stable clusters in velocity space and action-angle space by taking into account the measurement uncertainties and studying the stability of the clustering results. We find 1405 (497) stars in 23 (6) robust clusters in velocity space (action-angle space) that are consistently not associated with noise. We discuss the kinematic properties of these structures and study whether many of the small clusters belong to a similar larger cluster based on their chemical abundances. They are attributed to the known structures: the Gaia Sausage-Enceladus, the Helmi Stream, and globular cluster NGC 3201 are found in both spaces, while NGC 104 and the thick disc (Sequoia) are identified in velocity space (action-angle space). Although we do not identify any new structures, we find that the HDBSCAN member selection of already known structures is unstable to input kinematics of the stars when resampled within their uncertainties. We therefore present the stable subset of local kinematic structures, which are consistently identified by the clustering algorithm, and emphasize the need to take into account error propagation during both the manual and automated identification of stellar structures, both for existing ones as well as future discoveries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of the effect of uncertainty on impurity migration in PISCES-A simulated with GITR

A Bayesian inference strategy has been used to estimate uncertain inputs to global impurity transport code (GITR) modeling predictions of tungsten erosion and migration in the linear plasma device, PISCES-A. This allows quantification of GITR output uncertainty based on the uncertainties in measured PISCES-A plasma electron density and temperature profiles (n e , T e ) used as inputs to GITR. The technique has been applied for comparison to dedicated experiments performed for high (4 × 10 22 m –2 s –1 ) and low (5 × 10 21 m –2 s –1 ) flux 250 eV He–plasma exposed tungsten (W) targets designed to assess the net and gross erosion of tungsten, and corresponding W impurity transport. The W target design and orientation, impurity collector, and diagnostics, have been designed to eliminate complexities associated with tokamak divertor plasma exposures (inclined target, mixed plasma species, re-erosion, etc) to benchmark results against the trace impurity transport model simulated by GITR. The simulated results of the erosion, migration, and re-deposition of W during the experiment from the GITR code coupled to materials response models are presented. Specifically, the modeled and experimental W I emission spectroscopy data for a 429.4 nm line and net erosion through the target and collector mass difference measurements are compared. Furthermore, the methodology provides predictions of observable quantities of interest with quantified uncertainty, allowing estimation of moments, together with the sensitivities to plasma temperature and density.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Verification of the PERSENT Software

Ongoing commercial design activities require a thorough verification of the Argonne Reactor Computation codes be performed. DIF3D is central to this system and substantial work has been done to verify its accuracy on several identified commercial needs. This manuscript details the verification work done on PERSENT which relies upon the DIF3D code for its forward and adjoint flux solution. Previous work identified the PERSENT features required to be verified to support commercial design activities, features of which are generally applicable to hexagonal-Z fast reactor designs. The scope of this verification effort includes verifying PERSENT’s ability to correctly calculate four key quantities: perturbation worth distributions, kinetics parameters, sensitivity coefficients, and cross section uncertainty quantification. This manuscript provides the verification tasks and their results with respect to these quantities needed for commercial design activities. For the perturbation worth distributions, hand calculations are deployed to verify the PERSENT calculated results. Similarly, hand calculation of the PERSENT computed kinetics parameters is also used to verify the PERSENT results. In both of these, the input to PERSENT is manipulated to ensure the hand calculation exactly matches the equations PERSENT is calculating. The sensitivity coefficients involve calculating the derivatives of a parameter (such as reactivity worth), with respect to the cross section data. Direct finite difference calculations with DIF3D are used to verify the PERSENT calculated results. For the uncertainty quantification, manufactured input to PERSENT is used to allow an exact hand calculation to reproduce the PERSENT calculated results. The work detailed in this report verified that significant issues were identified for earlier versions of PERSENT for sensitivity coefficients which were corrected in this work and thus version 12.1.0 of PERSENT must be used to reproduce all of the verified work in this report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reweighting Monte Carlo predictions and automated fragmentation variations in Pythia 8

This work reports on a method for uncertainty estimation in simulated collider-event predictions. The method is based on a Monte Carlo-veto algorithm, and extends previous work on uncertainty estimates in parton showers by including uncertainty estimates for the Lund string-fragmentation model. This method is advantageous from the perspective of simulation costs: a single ensemble of generated events can be reinterpreted as though it was obtained using a different set of input parameters, where each event now is accompanied with a corresponding weight. This allows for a robust exploration of the uncertainties arising from the choice of input model parameters, without the need to rerun full simulation pipelines for each input parameter choice. Such explorations are important when determining the sensitivities of precision physics measurements. Accompanying code is available at https://gitlab.com/uchep/mlhad-weights-validation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Controlling extrapolations of nuclear properties with feature selection

Predictions of nuclear properties far from measured data are inherently inaccurate because of uncertainties in our knowledge of nuclear forces and in our treatment of quantum many-body effects in strongly-interacting systems. While the model bias can be directly calculated when experimental data is available, only an estimate can be made in the absence of such measurements. Current approaches to compute the estimated bias quickly lose predictive power when their input variables are taken far from the training region, resulting in uncontrolled uncertainties in applications such as nucleosynthesis simulations. In this letter, we present a novel technique to identify the input variables of machine learning algorithms that can provide robust estimates of model bias. Our process is based on selecting input variables, or features, based on their probability distribution functions across the entire nuclear chart. We illustrate our approach on the problem of quantifying the model bias in nuclear binding energies calculated with Density Functional Theory (DFT). We prove that building model biases with only Z and N as features leads to highly unreliable extrapolations. Conversely, we show that proper feature selection can systematically improve theoretical predictions without increasing uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GEWEX SRB Release 4: Public Release

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produces 3-hourly shortwave and longwave surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes for the 1983-nearpresent time period. Here we announce the public availability of the new Release 4 Integrated data product (R4-IP). R4-IP uses the newly recalibrated and processed ISCCP HXS product as its primary input for cloud and radiance data, replacing ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10km instead of 30km). This version retains a 1°x1° resolution but benefits from a much larger number of samples per grid box than the SRB Release 3. ISCCP also provides an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS which we use here, along with Seaflux and Landflux surface and near-surface meteorological parameters constituting an “Integrated Product” for energy and water cycle studies. In addition to the input data improvements, several important algorithm improvements have been made since Release 3. These include recalculated shortwave (SW or solar wavelengths) atmospheric transmissivities and reflectivities yielding a somewhat less transmissive atmosphere. Both SW and LW (longwave or thermal infrared) also include variable aerosol composition and radiative properties, allowing for the use of a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MAC). Both LW and SW algorithms now produce pristine sky fluxes, allowing the aerosol flux effects to be quantified. For SW, ocean albedo and snow/ice albedo are improved from Release 3. Total solar irradiance is now variable, and reduced to an average of 1361 Wm-2. The radiative treatment of ice cloud is improved. For the LW, a climatological monthly varying spectral surface emissivity is added.Here we analyze the new SW SRB datasets, comparing them to the previous Release 3, BSRN and PMEL surface measurements. Validation results show improved agreement compared to Release 3. Comparisons to ERBE and CERES TOA and surface satellite datasets before and after overlap periods show the long-term agreement with radiometric uncertainty. Monthly anomalies at global and zonal regions show very good correlation with the shorter ERBE and CERES flux anomalies linking those to the longer term. The uncertainties are discussed and periods of potential issues in inputs and/or algorithms are identified.

Earth energy budget↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GEWEX SRB Release 4: Public Release

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produces 3-hourly shortwave and longwave surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes for the 1983-near present time period. Here we announce the public availability of the new Release 4 Integrated data product (R4-IP). R4-IP uses the newly recalibrated and processed ISCCP HXS product as its primary input for cloud and radiance data, replacing ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10km instead of 30km). This version retains a 1°x1° resolution but benefits from a much larger number of samples per grid box than the SRB Release 3. ISCCP also provides an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS which we use here, along with Seaflux and Landflux surface and near-surface meteorological parameters constituting an “Integrated Product” for energy and water cycle studies. In addition to the input data improvements, several important algorithm improvements have been made since Release 3. These include recalculated shortwave (SW or solar wavelengths) atmospheric transmissivities and reflectivities yielding a somewhat less transmissive atmosphere. Both SW and LW (longwave or thermal infrared) also include variable aerosol composition and radiative properties, allowing for the use of a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MAC). Both LW and SW algorithms now produce pristine sky fluxes, allowing the aerosol flux effects to be quantified. For SW, ocean albedo and snow/ice albedo are improved from Release 3. Total solar irradiance is now variable, and reduced to an average of 1361 Wm-2. The radiative treatment of ice cloud is improved. For the LW, a climatological monthly varying spectral surface emissivity is added. Here we analyze the new SW SRB datasets, comparing them to the previous Release 3, BSRN and PMEL surface measurements. Validation results show improved agreement compared to Release 3. Comparisons to ERBE and CERES TOA and surface satellite datasets before and after overlap periods show the long-term agreement with radiometric uncertainty. Monthly anomalies at global and zonal regions show very good correlation with the shorter ERBE and CERES flux anomalies linking those to the longer term. The uncertainties are discussed and periods of potential issues in inputs and/or algorithms are identified.

Earth Radiation Budget↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Deep Gaussian Process-Based Probabilistic Electrical Load Forecasting Against Anomalous Events

The abnormal events, such as the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, can significantly change the load behaviors, leading to huge challenges for traditional short-term forecasting methods. This article proposes a robust deep Gaussian processes (DGP)-based probabilistic load forecasting method using a limited number of data. Since the proposed method only requires a limited number of training samples for load forecasting, it allows us to deal with extreme scenarios that cause short-term load behavior changes. In particular, the load forecasting at the beginning of abnormal event is cast as a regression problem with limited training samples and solved by double stochastic variational inference DGP. The mobility data are also utilized to deal with the uncertainties and pattern changes and enhance the flexibility of the forecasting model. The proposed method can quantify the uncertainties of load forecasting outcomes, which would be essential under uncertain inputs. Extensive comparison results with other state-of-the-art point and probabilistic forecasting methods show that our proposed approach can achieve high forecasting accuracies with only a limited number of data while maintaining the excellent performance of capturing the forecasting uncertainties.

anomalous events↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth System Model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) are heavily used to provide inputs to sectoral impact and multisector dynamic models, which include representations of energy, water, land, economics, and their interactions. Therefore, representing the full range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability that ensembles of these models capture is critical to the exploration of the future co-evolution of the integrated human–Earth system. The pre-eminent source of these ensembles has been the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). With more modeling centers participating in each new CMIP phase, the size of the model archive is rapidly increasing, which can be intractable for impact modelers to effectively utilize due to computational constraints and the challenges of analyzing large datasets. In this work, we present a method to select a subset of the latest phase, CMIP6, featuring models for use as inputs to a sectoral impact or multisector dynamics models, while prioritizing preservation of the range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability in the full CMIP6 ensemble results. This method is intended to help impact modelers select climate information from the CMIP archive efficiently for use in downstream models that require global coverage of climate information. This is particularly critical for large-ensemble experiments of multisector dynamic models that may be varying additional features beyond climate inputs in a factorial design, thus putting constraints on the number of climate simulations that can be used. We focus on temperature and precipitation outputs of CMIP6 models, as these are two of the most used variables among impact models, and many other key input variables for impacts are at least correlated with one or both of temperature and precipitation (e.g., relative humidity). Besides preserving the multi-model ensemble variance characteristics, we prioritize selecting CMIP6 models in the subset that preserve the very likely distribution of equilibrium climate sensitivity values as assessed by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. This approach could be applied to other output variables of climate models and, possibly when combined with emulators, offers a flexible framework for designing more efficient experiments on human-relevant climate impacts. It can also provide greater insight into the properties of existing CMIP6 models.

Snyder, Abigail C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward shell model interactions with credible uncertainties

Background: The nuclear shell model is a powerful framework for predicting nuclear structure observables, but relies on interaction matrix elements fit to experimental data as its inputs. Extending the shell model's applicability, particularly toward dripline nuclei, requires efficient fitting methods and credible uncertainty quantification. Traditional approaches face computational challenges and may underestimate uncertainties. Purpose: We develop and test a framework combining eigenvector continuation and Markov chain Monte Carlo to efficiently fit shell model interaction matrix elements and quantify their uncertainties. Methods: Eigenvector continuation is used to emulate shell model calculations, reducing computational costs. The emulator enables Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to optimize interaction matrix elements and rigorously assess parametric uncertainties. Here, the framework is benchmarked using the USDB interaction in the 𝑠⁢𝑑 shell. Results: The emulator reproduces the USDB interaction with negligible error, validating its use in shell model fitting applications. However, we find that to obtain credible predictive intervals, the model defect of the shell model itself, rather than experimental or emulator error, must be taken into account in order to obtain credible uncertainties. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an efficient and rigorous approach for fitting shell model interactions and quantifying uncertainties. Further, the normality assumption used in the past appears sufficient to describe the distribution of interaction matrix elements. However, it is crucial to account for model correlations to avoid underestimating uncertainties.

Nuclear forces↗