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At least 469 records · Page 26

When can we detect lianas from space? Toward a mechanistic understanding of liana‐infested forest optics

Abstract Lianas, woody vines acting as structural parasites of trees, have profound effects on the composition and structure of tropical forests, impacting tree growth, mortality, and forest succession. Remote sensing could offer a powerful tool for quantifying the scale of liana infestation, provided the availability of robust detection methods. We analyze the consistency and global geographic specificity of spectral signals—reflectance across wavelengths—from liana‐infested tree crowns and forest stands, examining the underlying mechanisms of these signals. We compiled a uniquely comprehensive database, including leaf reflectance spectra from 5424 leaves, fine‐scale airborne reflectance data from 999 liana‐infested canopies, and coarse‐scale satellite reflectance data covering 775 ha of liana‐infested forest stands. To unravel the mechanisms of the liana spectral signal, we applied mechanistic radiative transfer models across scales, establishing a synthesis of the relative importance of different mechanisms, which we corroborate with field data on liana leaf chemistry and canopy structure. We find a consistent liana spectral signal at canopy and stand scales across globally distributed sites. This signature mainly arises at the canopy level due to direct effects of more horizontal leaf angles, resulting in a larger projected leaf area, and indirect effects from increased light scattering in the near and short‐wave infrared regions, linked to lianas' less costly leaf construction compared with trees on average. The existence of a consistent global spectral signal for lianas suggests that large‐scale quantification of liana infestation is feasible. However, because the traits responsible for the liana canopy‐reflectance signal are not exclusive to lianas, accurate large‐scale detection requires rigorously validated remote sensing methods. Our models highlight challenges in automated detection, such as potential misidentification due to leaf phenology, tree life history, topography, and climate, especially where the scale of liana infestation is less than a single remote sensing pixel. The observed cross‐site patterns also prompt ecological questions about lianas' adaptive similarities in optical traits across environments, indicating possible convergent evolution due to shared constraints on leaf biochemical and structural traits.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Spontaneous Lithiation of Binary Oxides during Epitaxial Growth on LiCoO 2

Epitaxial growth is a powerful tool for synthesizing heterostructures and integrating multiple functionalities. Interfacial mixing can readily occur at temperatures required for complete film crystallization and can significantly modify the properties of layered structures, particularly for those containing energy storage materials with smaller cations. Here we show a two-step sequence involving the growth of an epitaxial LiCoO 2 cathode layer followed by the deposition of a binary transition metal oxide (WO 3 , TiO 2 , and others) in which controlled lithiation of the binary oxide occurs. Orientation-controlled epitaxial synthesis of the model solid-state-electrolyte Li 2 WO 4 and model anode material Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 occurs as WO 3 and TiO 2 nucleate their respective host lattices and attract Li ions from the underlying cathode. The cathode layer readily provides a tunable amount of Li ions for the controlled lithiation of the subsequent layer. We demonstrate that this approach can be used for energy materials discovery and exploring different combinations of epitaxial interfaces that can serve as well-defined model systems for mechanistic studies of energy storage and conversion processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nanoscale Surface Structure of Nanometer-Thick Ferroelectric BaTiO 3 Films Revealed by Synchrotron X-ray Scanning Tunneling Microscopy: Implications for Catalytic Adsorption Reactions

Ferroelectric nanomaterials are of interest in catalysis, non-volatile memory, and neuromorphic computing among other applications because of their switchable structure that can alter electronic and interface properties of a single material. The investigation of the role of polarization on the surface structure and chemistry of ferroelectric nanomaterials is a longstanding challenge, as it ideally requires a combination of both nanoscale imaging and chemical spectroscopy. In this work we study a model ferroelectric BaTiO 3 thin film by synchrotron X-ray scanning tunneling microscopy (SX-STM), a unique method which integrates nanoscale surface imaging and chemically sensitive spectroscopy. We find that polarization switching from downward to upward in (001)single crystalline BaTiO 3 thin films increases the intensity of X-ray absorption across Ba M, Ti L and O K edges. Chemical mapping of nanometer sized domains further demonstrates the modulation of surface structures upon polarization switching, as well as confirming the trends observed in single point experiments across the surface. Here, we complement these measurements with ab-initio computational absorption spectroscopy to elucidate the effect of polarization switching on the core-hole excitations using the Bethe-Salpeter equation approach. Our experimental and theoretical results thus confirm a stronger binding strength for the upward polarized surface with molecular O 2 as a model reactant, offering mechanistic evidence that supports previous reports. This work advances the understanding of the surface chemistry and electronic structure of ferroelectrics, which can ultimately aid strategies to design interfaces with tailored properties.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Redox regulation of m 6 A methyltransferase METTL3 in β-cells controls the innate immune response in type 1 diabetes

Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) is characterized by the destruction of pancreatic ß-cells. Several observations have renewed the interest in ß-cell RNA sensors and editors. Here, in this study, we report that N 6 -methyladenosine (m 6 A) is an adaptive ß-cell safeguard mechanism that controls the amplitude and duration of the antiviral innate immune response at T1D onset. m 6 A writer methyltransferase 3 (METTL3) levels increase drastically in ß-cells at T1D onset but rapidly decline with disease progression. m 6 A-sequencing revealed the m 6 A hypermethylation of several key innate immune mediators including OAS1, OAS2, OAS3, and ADAR1 in human islets and EndoC-ßH1 cells at T1D onset. METTL3 silencing enhanced OAS levels by increasing its mRNA stability. Consistently, in vivo gene therapy, to prolong Mettl3 overexpression specifically in ß-cells, delayed diabetes progression in the non-obese diabetic (NOD) mouse model of T1D. Mechanistically, the accumulation of reactive oxygen species blocked upregulation of METTL3 in response to cytokines, while physiological levels of nitric oxide enhanced its expression. Furthermore, for the first time to our knowledge, we report that the cysteines in position C276 and C326 in the zinc finger domains of the METTL3 protein are sensitive to S-nitrosylation (SNO) and are significant for the METTL3-mediated regulation of OAS mRNA stability in human ß-cells. Collectively, we report that m 6 A regulates ß-cells to control the innate immune response during the onset of T1D in humans.

2'-5'-oligoadenylate synthetase↗

An efficient and durable anode for ammonia protonic ceramic fuel cells

Ammonia protonic ceramic fuel cells (PCFCs) have the potential to be a highly efficient power source with high energy density. However, the inadequate catalytic activity of the existing anodes for utilization of ammonia greatly limits the performance of PCFCs. In this study, we report an Fe-modified state-of-the-art Ni cermet anode with greatly enhanced activity and durability toward utilization of ammonia. Cells with an Fe-decorated Ni-BaZr 0.1 Ce 0.7 Y 0.1 Yb 0.1 O 3 (Ni–BZCYYb) anode demonstrate an excellent performance, achieving peak power densities of 0.360, 0.723, 1.257, and 1.609 W cm –2 at 550, 600, 650, and 700 °C, respectively, which reveal the highest performance of solid oxide fuel cells fueled on ammonia. In addition, the cells show an excellent durability when operated at a constant current density of 0.5 A cm –2 (or a power density of ~0.435 W cm –2 ) at 650 °C. The superior activity and durability of the Fe-modified Ni/BZCYYb anode are attributed to the alternation of NH 3 adsorption strength and N 2 desorption barrier heights, as confirmed by first-principles based mechanistic and microkinetic modeling. Our research provides a valuable guidance for the development of efficient electro-catalysts for ammonia PCFCs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Stimulation of isoprene emissions and electron transport rates are a key mechanism of thermal tolerance in the tropical species Vismia guianensis

Tropical forests absorb large amounts of atmospheric CO 2 through photosynthesis, but high surface temperatures suppress this absorption while promoting isoprene emissions. While mechanistic isoprene emission models predict a tight coupling to photosynthetic electron transport (ETR) as a function of temperature, direct field observations of these phenomenon are lacking in the tropics and are necessary to assess the impact of a warming climate on global isoprene emissions. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the early successional species Vismia guianensis in the central Amazon, ETR rates increased with temperature in concert with isoprene emissions, even as stomatal conductance ($g _s$) and net photosynthetic carbon fixation ($P_n$) declined. We observed the highest temperatures of continually increasing isoprene emissions yet reported (50°C). While $P_n$ showed an optimum value of 32.6 ± 0.4°C, isoprene emissions, ETR, and the oxidation state of PSII reaction centers (q L ) increased with leaf temperature with strong linear correlations for ETR (ρ = 0.98) and q L (ρ= 0.99) with leaf isoprene emissions. In contrast, other photoprotective mechanisms, such as non-photochemical quenching (NPQ), were not activated at elevated temperatures. Inhibition of isoprenoid biosynthesis repressed $P_n$ at high temperatures through a mechanism that was independent of stomatal closure. While extreme warming will decrease $g_s$ and $P_n$ in tropical species, our observations support a thermal tolerance mechanism where the maintenance of high photosynthetic capacity under extreme warming is assisted by the simultaneous stimulation of ETR and metabolic pathways that consume the direct products of ETR including photorespiration and the biosynthesis of thermoprotective isoprenoids. Our results confirm that models which link isoprene emissions to the rate of ETR hold true in tropical species and provide necessary "ground-truthing" for simulations of the large predicted increases in tropical isoprene emissions with climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atomic-scale polarization switching in wurtzite ferroelectrics

Ferroelectric wurtzites have the potential to revolutionize modern microelectronics because they are easily integrated with multiple mainstream semiconductor platforms. However, the electric fields required to reverse their polarization direction and unlock electronic and optical functions need substantial reduction for operational compatibility with complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) electronics. To understand this process, we observed and quantified real-time polarization switching of a representative ferroelectric wurtzite (Al 0.94 B 0.06 N) at the atomic scale with scanning transmission electron microscopy. The analysis revealed a polarization reversal model in which puckered aluminum/boron nitride rings in the wurtzite basal planes gradually flatten and adopt a transient nonpolar geometry. Independent first-principles simulations reveal the details and energetics of the reversal process through an antipolar phase. Furthermore, this model and local mechanistic understanding are a critical initial step for property engineering efforts in this emerging material class.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Isolation and characterization of 24 phages infecting the plant growth-promoting rhizobacterium Klebsiella sp. M5al

Bacteriophages largely impact bacterial communities via lysis, gene transfer, and metabolic reprogramming and thus are increasingly thought to alter nutrient and energy cycling across many of Earth’s ecosystems. However, there are few model systems to mechanistically and quantitatively study phage-bacteria interactions, especially in soil systems. Here, we isolated, sequenced, and genomically characterized 24 novel phages infectingKlebsiellasp. M5al, a plant growth-promoting, nonencapsulated rhizosphere-associated bacterium, and compared many of their features against all 565 sequenced, dsDNAKlebsiellaphage genomes. Taxonomic analyses revealed that theseKlebsiellaphages belong to three known phage families (Autographiviridae,Drexlerviridae, andStraboviridae) and two newly proposed phage families (CandidatusMavericviridaeand Ca.Rivulusviridae). At the phage family level, we found that core genes were often phage-centric proteins, such as structural proteins for the phage head and tail and DNA packaging proteins. In contrast, genes involved in transcription, translation, or hypothetical proteins were commonly not shared or flexible genes. Ecologically, we assessed the phages’ ubiquity in recent large-scale metagenomic datasets, which revealed they were not widespread, as well as a possible direct role in reprogramming specific metabolisms during infection by screening their genomes for phage-encoded auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs). Even though AMGs are common in the environmental literature, only one of our phage families,Straboviridae, contained AMGs, and the types of AMGs were correlated at the genus level. Host range phenotyping revealed the phages had a wide range of infectivity, infecting between 1–14 of our 22 bacterial strain panel that included pathogenicKlebsiellaandRaoultellastrains. This indicates that not all capsule-independent Klebsiella phages have broad host ranges. Together, these isolates, with corresponding genome, AMG, and host range analyses, help build theKlebsiellamodel system for studying phage-host interactions of rhizosphere-associated bacteria.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

The Release of the Simplified Radionuclide Transport (SRT) Code (V.2.1)

Reactor licensing centers on the protection of the public and environment from the inadvertent release of radioactive material. Therefore, mechanistic source term analysis, or the realistic evaluation of radionuclide transport from the source to the environment for specific transient scenarios, is vital to reactor licensing efforts. Developed to resolve a gap in mechanistic source term modeling capabilities for sodium fast reactors (SFRs), the Simplified Radionuclide Transport (SRT) code created by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is now utilized by advanced reactor vendors, universities, and research institutions to support a multitude of design, licensing, and research efforts. Recently, SRT version 2.1 was released, which includes improvements to code models and verification and validation (V&V) suite to support the SRT user community. The following work provides an overview of the improvements made as part of the release of SRT version 2.1. This effort is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE:NE) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Fast Reactor Program (FRP), as part of the program’s support of national laboratory design and safety analysis computer codes utilized by the fast reactor industry. The expansion of SRT code capabilities and improvements to code V&V associated with version 2.1 are in response to user requests and lessons learned from recent source term analyses performed by Argonne and advanced reactor vendors. They also align with the evolving role of SRT, from research and development tool to software utilized for reactor licensing calculations. The report is structured in alignment with the code improvements, as outlined in Figure 1-1. Section 2 provides background information on SRT, including its history, capabilities, and utilization. Section 3 details new code capabilities as part of version 2.1, while Section 4 focuses on the expansion of the code’s V&V suite. Lastly, Section 5 provides a summary and discussion of next steps.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The effect of heat treatment on the defect evolution in LPBF 316H stainless steel

This work investigates the effect of processing and heat treatment on defect evolution and irradiation response of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316H stainless steel, with comparisons to LPBF 316L and wrought 316L/316H. Using in-situ and ex-situ ion irradiations across a wide parameter space—temperature (300–675 °C), dose (0.2–25 dpa), dose rate (10 -3 –10 -5 dpa/s), and helium co-implantation (20–2500 appm)—we correlated void swelling, dislocation loop evolution, and segregation behavior with pre-irradiation microstructures (as-built, stress-relieved, solution-annealed, and cold-worked). Results show that swelling is strongly controlled by dislocation density: intermediate densities maximize swelling, while solution annealing or cold working reduce susceptibility to levels comparable to wrought alloys. Low dose rates and helium both promote cavity nucleation and lower the incubation barrier, with helium suppressing the role of dislocation density and driving swelling behavior toward wrought-like response. Loop evolution in SA LPBF 316H resembles wrought 316L but shows localized denuded zones near low-angle grain boundaries. STEM-EDS mapping further revealed Ni segregation at voids and sparse Al-rich oxides, without evidence of Ni–Si precipitates. Collectively, these findings identify dislocation density, helium content, and dose rate as the factors governing swelling in LPBF 316H and provide mechanistic datasets for model validation, supporting LAIN and the qualification of AM austenitic steels for nuclear service.

316 stainless steel↗

Long-term measurements of ice nucleating particles at Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites worldwide

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) play a critical role in cloud microphysics and precipitation formation, yet long-term, spatially extensive observational datasets remain limited. Here, we present one of the most comprehensive publicly available datasets of immersion-mode INP concentrations using a single analytical method, generated through the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. INP filter samples have been collected across a broad range of environments – including agricultural plains, Arctic coastlines, high-elevation mountain sites, marine regions, and urban areas – via fixed observatories, mobile facility deployments, and vertically-resolved tethered balloon system operations. We describe the standardized processing and quality assurance pipeline, from filter collection and processing using the Ice Nucleation Spectrometer to final data products archived on the ARM Data Discovery portal. The dataset includes both total INP concentrations and selectively treated samples, allowing for classification of biological, organic, and inorganic INP types. It features a continuous 5-year record of INP measurements from a central U.S. site, with data collection still ongoing. Seasonal and site-specific differences in INP concentrations are illustrated through intercomparisons at −10 and −20 °C, revealing distinct regional sources and atmospheric drivers. We also outline mechanisms for researchers to access existing data, request additional sample analyses, and propose future field campaigns involving ARM INP measurements. This dataset supports a wide range of scientific applications, from observational and mechanistic studies to model development, and provides critical constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions across diverse atmospheric regimes (Creamean et al., 2024, 2020b; https://doi.org/10.5439/1770816).

Creamean, Jessie M. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Co↗

A Study of Heat Transfer and Flow Characteristics of Rising Taylor Bubbles

Practical application of flow boiling to ground- and space-based thermal management systems hinges on the ability to predict the systems heat removal capabilities under expected operating conditions. Research in this field has shown that the heat transfer coefficient within two-phase heat exchangers can be largely dependent on the experienced flow regime. This finding has inspired an effort to develop mechanistic heat transfer models for each flow pattern which are likely to outperform traditional empirical correlations. As a contribution to the effort, this work aimed to identify the heat transfer mechanisms for the slug flow regime through analysis of individual Taylor bubbles.An experimental apparatus was developed to inject single vapor Taylor bubbles into co-currently flowing liquid HFE 7100. The heat transfer was measured as the bubble rose through a 6 mm inner diameter heated tube using an infrared thermography technique. High-speed flow visualization was obtained and the bubble film thickness measured in an adiabatic section. Experiments were conducted at various liquid mass fluxes (43-200 kgm2s) and gravity levels (0.01g-1.8g) to characterize the effect of bubble drift velocityon the heat transfer mechanisms. Variable gravity testing was conducted during a NASA parabolic flight campaign.Results from the experiments showed that the drift velocity strongly affects the hydrodynamics and heat transfer of single elongated bubbles. At low gravity levels, bubbles exhibited shapes characteristic of capillary flows and the heat transfer enhancement due to the bubble was dominated by conduction through the thin film. At moderate to high gravity, traditional Taylor bubbles provided small values of enhancement within the film, but large peaks in the wake heat transfer occurred due to turbulent vortices induced by the film plunging into the trailing liquid slug. Characteristics of the wake heat transfer profiles were analyzed and related to the predicted velocity field. Results were compared and shown to agree with numerical simulations of colleagues from EPFL, Switzerland.In addition, a preliminary study was completed on the effect of a Taylor bubble passing through nucleate flow boiling, showing that the thinning thermal boundary layer within the film suppressed nucleation, thereby decreasing the heat transfer coefficient.

capillary flow↗

Digital Twins for Predicting Nitrifier Population and Kinetics

Digital twins can be mechanistic biological process models that when regularly calibrated give an indication of nitrifier kinetics and nitrifier population. Having such information can inform waste rates and dissolved oxygen setpoints for ammonia-based aeration control.

Sparks, Jeff↗

State of Wildfires

Fire is an essential component of ecosystems and acts as key driver of biogeochemical cycling with impacts on vegetation structure and composition, soil conditions, and climate feedbacks. Fire behavior and effects vary based on the types of fuel, fuel dryness, and frequency of ignition. Due to changing climate and land use patterns, fire danger is increasing in many regions globally, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Recurrent fires help to determine the distribution of trees and grasses, and overall fuel load, which inform the behavior of future fires. Process-based models can be used to capture multi-scale impacts at the forest stand-level up to the landscape level, and across minutes to centuries, but must capture variation in fire behavior and intensity as a function of the fuel and climate, from high intensity forest crown fires within boreal regions to low intensity rapid grass fires of the tropics. Fire model development demonstrates our ability to capture large scale fire influenced biogeography and vegetation distribution at the earth system scale through vegetation traits and fire feedbacks. At the individual stand scale the importance of interactions and feedbacks between above and below ground process is essential to capturing the vegetation dynamics across boreal forest systems. Improving the mechanics of including plant physiology and specifically live fuel moisture content is the next step to advancing the capability of process based models to inform fire research. Advances in the testing and creation of a mechanistic live fuel moisture model demonstrate the foundation for future live fuel dynamics research that can be informed by field and remote sensing information. Improved remote sensing, technological and modeling capabilities support a more comprehensive and cohesive fire response that will be better equipped to overcome current barriers and anticipate the new reality of fires in a warming world.

wildfires↗

RELAP-7 Application and Enhancement for FLEX Strategies and ATF Behavior under Extended Loss of AC Power Conditions

This report summarizes the results of a three-year research project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) to enhance and apply the RELAP-7 code by adding and improving several important components (e.g., a mechanistic Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) system model) for thermal hydraulic studies of LWRs under ELAP conditions and evaluating the time available for transition to portable FLEX equipment. The project team included University of Massachusetts–Lowell, The Ohio State University, Texas A&M University, Idaho National Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In the Fukushima accident, it was found that the RCIC system played a crucial role in delaying core meltdown by almost three days in Fukushima Daiichi Unit 2, because of self-regulated operation of the steam driven RCIC turbine-pump injection system. Steam flow in the convergent-divergent nozzles of the RCIC Terry turbine is two-phase non-equilibrium transonic flow with homogenous nucleation condensation. To more accurately predict the dynamic process and behavior of the transonic compressible steam flow, a one-dimensional transient two-phase analytical model is presented. A simplified four-fluid model was employed in the present work with the consideration of four separate fluid fields: vapor, liquid film, entrained droplets and condensed droplets. The mass, momentum and energy interactions between the fluids were considered and modeled. An extended seven-equation non-equilibrium critical flow model was developed to obtain the critical pressure and velocities of each phase at the nozzle throat. To predict the wetness in the divergent section, a mechanistic nucleation condensation model was integrated in the nozzle analysis model, considering the generation and consequent growth of droplets. The governing differential equations on a staggered grid were discretized using the second-order Lax-Wendroff scheme with a flux limiter, and the Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equation (SIMPLE) algorithm was employed to solve the discrete linear system. To demonstrate the predictability and reliability of the physical models and the numerical method proposed in the present work, three representative nozzles were modeled and simulated. The results show good agreement with the available experimental data, even for condensation shock. Then, the 1D nozzle model was employed to obtain nozzle flow tables of the Terry turbine nozzle for different working pressures which can cover the operation pressure range of the RCIC system. A mechanistic RCIC turbine-pump system model was developed and implemented in the system code TRACE to simulate dynamic responses of the RCIC system under Beyond Design Basis Accident (BDBA) conditions. The turbine-pump governing equations are based on the control volume approach of the angular momentum balance. The physics based mechanistic RCIC model was developed using the TRACE control system components (i.e., signal variables, control blocks, and tables), and incorporated into a TRACE boiling water reactor (BWR) model. The TRACE model in this report has a detailed nodalization of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV), and all of the major flow paths and system components, including the safety relief valves (SRVs) and the containment suppression pool and drywell. Based on the nozzle flow tables generated from the 1D nozzle model developed, the turbine drive torque can be calculated from table lookup. Since the detailed specifications of the RCIC pump are unavailable, the homologous curves for a Bingham pump were used in the current pump component. A station black-out (SBO) accident test problem was selected to demonstrate the TRACE RCIC model. The short-term SBO simulations were performed for two cladding materials: Zircaloy and FeCrAl, to demonstrate the effect of the accident tolerant fuel cladding on fuel heat-up under BDBA accident conditions. The wetwell plays a vital safety role in SBO and other BWR accident scenarios in that it can reduce containment pressure and supply additional core make-up water. The suppression pool temperature distribution has a very large impact on both RPV and containment pressure. Thus, another novel contribution of the project comes mainly from an improved, systems-level wetwell model which can capture buoyancy-induced thermal stratification effects due to steam injection and condensation. A two-zone stratified wetwell model has been implemented in RELAP-7 and some results from that model are presented. This wetwell model is capable of simulating thermal stratification due to a low steam mass injection rate. With a low mass flow rate, the model assumes that all the steam condenses within the pipe and the resulting plume can be approximated with a purely buoyant, heat-source driven model. The wetwell model developed with these assumptions is adequate to simulate slow transients such as extended SBO transients.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Electrically driven proton transfer promotes Brønsted acid catalysis by orders of magnitude

Electric fields play a key role in enzymatic catalysis and can enhance reaction rates by 100,000-fold, but the same rate enhancements have yet to be achieved in thermochemical heterogeneous catalysis. In this work, we probe the influence of catalyst potential and interfacial electric fields on heterogeneous Brønsted acid catalysis. We observed that variations in applied potential of ~380 mV led to a 100,000-fold rate enhancement for 1-methylcyclopentanol dehydration, which was catalyzed by carbon-supported phosphotungstic acid. Mechanistic studies support a model in which the interfacial electrostatic potential drop drives quasi-equilibrated proton transfer to the adsorbed substrate prior to rate-limiting C–O bond cleavage. Large increases in rate with potential were also observed for the same reaction catalyzed by Ti/TiO y H x and for the Friedel Crafts acylation of anisole with acetic anhydride by carbon-supported phosphotungstic acid.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗