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Predictive Modeling to Assess and Address Challenges and Limitations Associated with Clinical Care and Decision Support in Deep Space

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for assessing and integrating the risk of failure in a multivariate system. While it is often applied by engineers designing complex machines, it could also be applied to humans to assess the probability of a health “failure” treating diseases as the multiple “variables” and the human as the “complex machine.” The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was developed to apply PRA to assess medical risk for exploration spaceflight and inform the design of medical systems for space flight. The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault tree probabilistic techniques to classify risk in the space flight environment by leveraging the inherent knowledge of complex space flight system design and testing to quantify risk. However, in harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of “How do we balance astronaut health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on exploration space missions?” remains a profoundly challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is one aspect of the Human Research Program’s efforts to represent space fight human health and performance risks quantitatively.

L Mcintyre↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Operations concepts for Mars missions with multiple mobile spacecraft

Missions are being proposed which involve landing a varying number (anywhere from one to 24) of small mobile spacecraft on Mars. Mission proposals include sample returns, in situ geochemistry and geology, and instrument deployment functions. This paper discusses changes needed in traditional space operations methods for support of rover operations. Relevant differences include more frequent commanding, higher risk acceptance, streamlined procedures, and reliance on additional spacecraft autonomy, advanced fault protection, and prenegotiated decisions. New methods are especially important for missions with several Mars rovers operating concurrently against time limits. This paper also discusses likely mission design limits imposed by operations constraints .

Dias, William C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Hyperswitch Communication Network Computer

Hyperswitch Communications Network (HCN) computer is prototype multiple-processor computer being developed. Incorporates improved version of hyperswitch communication network described in "Hyperswitch Network For Hypercube Computer" (NPO-16905). Designed to support high-level software and expansion of itself. HCN computer is message-passing, multiple-instruction/multiple-data computer offering significant advantages over older single-processor and bus-based multiple-processor computers, with respect to price/performance ratio, reliability, availability, and manufacturing. Design of HCN operating-system software provides flexible computing environment accommodating both parallel and distributed processing. Also achieves balance among following competing factors; performance in processing and communications, ease of use, and tolerance of (and recovery from) faults.

Peterson, John C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Predicting Ares I Reaction Control System Performance by Utilizing Analysis Anchored with Development Test Data

The Ares I launch vehicle is an integral part of NASA s Constellation Program, providing a foundation for a new era of space access. The Ares I is designed to lift the Orion Crew Module and will enable humans to return to the Moon as well as explore Mars.1 The Ares I is comprised of two inline stages: a Space Shuttle-derived five-segment Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) First Stage (FS) and an Upper Stage (US) powered by a Saturn V-derived J-2X engine. A dedicated Roll Control System (RoCS) located on the connecting interstage provides roll control prior to FS separation. Induced yaw and pitch moments are handled by the SRB nozzle vectoring. The FS SRB operates for approximately two minutes after which the US separates from the vehicle and the US Reaction Control System (ReCS) continues to provide reaction control for the remainder of the mission. A representation of the Ares I launch vehicle in the stacked configuration and including the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) is shown in Figure 1. Each Reaction Control System (RCS) design incorporates a Gaseous Helium (GHe) pressurization system combined with a monopropellant Hydrazine (N2H4) propulsion system. Both systems have two diametrically opposed thruster modules. This architecture provides one failure tolerance for function and prevention of catastrophic hazards such as inadvertent thruster firing, bulk propellant leakage, and over-pressurization. The pressurization system on the RoCS includes two ambient pressure-referenced regulators on parallel strings in order to attain the required system level single Fault Tolerant (FT) design for function while the ReCS utilizes a blow-down approach. A single burst disk and relief valve assembly is also included on the RoCS to ensure single failure tolerance for must-not-occur catastrophic hazards. The Reaction Control Systems are designed to support simultaneously firing multiple thrusters as required

Stein, William B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Single-Shot Decoding of Good Quantum LDPC Codes

Abstract Quantum Tanner codes constitute a family of quantum low-density parity-check codes with good parameters, i.e., constant encoding rate and relative distance. In this article, we prove that quantum Tanner codes also facilitate single-shot quantum error correction (QEC) of adversarial noise, where one measurement round (consisting of constant-weight parity checks) suffices to perform reliable QEC even in the presence of measurement errors. We establish this result for both the sequential and parallel decoding algorithms introduced by Leverrier and Zémor. Furthermore, we show that in order to suppress errors over multiple repeated rounds of QEC, it suffices to run the parallel decoding algorithm for constant time in each round. Combined with good code parameters, the resulting constant-time overhead of QEC and robustness to (possibly time-correlated) adversarial noise make quantum Tanner codes alluring from the perspective of quantum fault-tolerant protocols.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Managing technical debt across large-scale control systems

This presentation provides a comprehensive overview of technical debt in the context of control systems for large-scale physics facilities. We will explore its various forms, common causes, and potential consequences on system reliability, maintainability, and upgradability. Drawing on experiences from multiple projects, we will present a range of strategies for proactively managing technical debt, including best practices in design, development, testing, and documentation, as well as reactive approaches for identifying and mitigating existing issues. The presentation will also emphasize the importance of a collaborative approach and the use of modern tools, like fault tracking systems, to ensure the long-term health and success of control systems in our field.

Watts, Adam [Fermilab]↗

NASA NTRS2009

Rover Attitude and Pointing System Simulation Testbed

The MER (Mars Exploration Rover) Attitude and Pointing System Simulation Testbed Environment (RAPSSTER) provides a simulation platform used for the development and test of GNC (guidance, navigation, and control) flight algorithm designs for the Mars rovers, which was specifically tailored to the MERs, but has since been used in the development of rover algorithms for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) as well. The software provides an integrated simulation and software testbed environment for the development of Mars rover attitude and pointing flight software. It provides an environment that is able to run the MER GNC flight software directly (as opposed to running an algorithmic model of the MER GNC flight code). This improves simulation fidelity and confidence in the results. Further more, the simulation environment allows the user to single step through its execution, pausing, and restarting at will. The system also provides for the introduction of simulated faults specific to Mars rover environments that cannot be replicated in other testbed platforms, to stress test the GNC flight algorithms under examination. The software provides facilities to do these stress tests in ways that cannot be done in the real-time flight system testbeds, such as time-jumping (both forwards and backwards), and introduction of simulated actuator faults that would be difficult, expensive, and/or destructive to implement in the real-time testbeds. Actual flight-quality codes can be incorporated back into the development-test suite of GNC developers, closing the loop between the GNC developers and the flight software developers. The software provides fully automated scripting, allowing multiple tests to be run with varying parameters, without human supervision.

Vanelli, Charles A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time-Lapse Gravity Monitoring of CO2 Migration Based on Numerical Modeling of a Faulted Storage Complex

In this study, the performance of both surface and borehole time-lapse gravity monitoring to detect CO2 leakage from a carbon storage site is evaluated. Several hypothetical scenarios of CO2 migration in a leaky fault, and thief zones at different depths at the Kimberlina site (California, USA) constitute the basis of the approach. The CO2 displacement is simulated using the TOUGH2 simulator applied to a detailed geological model of the site. The gravity responses to these CO2 plumes are simulated using forward modeling with sensors at ground surface and in vertical boreholes. Results of inversion on one scenario are also presented. The surface-based gravity responses obtained for the different leakage scenarios demonstrate that leakage can be detected at the surface in all the scenarios but the time to detection is highly variable (10 to 40 years) and dependent on the detection threshold considered. Borehole measurements of the vertical component of gravity provide excellent constrains in depth when they are located in proximity of the density anomaly associated with the presence of CO2, thus discriminating multiple leaks in different thief zones. Joint inversion of surface and borehole data can bring valuable information of the occurrence of leakages and their importance by providing a reasonable estimate of mass of displaced fluids. This study demonstrates the importance of combining multiphase flow simulations with gravity modeling in order to define if and when gravity monitoring would be applicable at a given storage site.

Time-lapse gravity monitoring, leak detection, CCS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predictive modeling of Néel temperature in austenitic alloys using CALPHAD and data analytics

The Néel temperature is a crucial yet often overlooked parameter in calculating the stacking fault energy (SFE) of austenitic alloys. Several empirical equations have been proposed to estimate the Néel temperature of austenitic alloys, which are then used to calculate the SFE and explain deformation mechanisms. However, these empirical equations, typically derived using linear regression algorithms, are often simplistic and may fail to capture the complex interactions among multiple alloying elements that influence the Néel temperature. Moreover, their applicability is usually limited to specific compositional ranges. In this study, we propose a CALPHAD based approach and develop a surrogate decision tree based regression model capable of capturing the interactions among multiple alloying elements to predict the Néel temperature. Predictions from both the CALPHAD approach and the regression model show close agreement with experimental measurements reported in the literature. In conclusion, the implications of accurate Néel temperature predictions on the calculated SFE and deformation mechanisms are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2004

Autonomous Propulsion System Technology Being Developed to Optimize Engine Performance Throughout the Lifecycle

The goal of the Autonomous Propulsion System Technology (APST) project is to reduce pilot workload under both normal and anomalous conditions. Ongoing work under APST develops and leverages technologies that provide autonomous engine monitoring, diagnosing, and controller adaptation functions, resulting in an integrated suite of algorithms that maintain the propulsion system's performance and safety throughout its life. Engine-to-engine performance variation occurs among new engines because of manufacturing tolerances and assembly practices. As an engine wears, the performance changes as operability limits are reached. In addition to these normal phenomena, other unanticipated events such as sensor failures, bird ingestion, or component faults may occur, affecting pilot workload as well as compromising safety. APST will adapt the controller as necessary to achieve optimal performance for a normal aging engine, and the safety net of APST algorithms will examine and interpret data from a variety of onboard sources to detect, isolate, and if possible, accommodate faults. Situations that cannot be accommodated within the faulted engine itself will be referred to a higher level vehicle management system. This system will have the authority to redistribute the faulted engine's functionality among other engines, or to replan the mission based on this new engine health information. Work is currently underway in the areas of adaptive control to compensate for engine degradation due to aging, data fusion for diagnostics and prognostics of specific sensor and component faults, and foreign object ingestion detection. In addition, a framework is being defined for integrating all the components of APST into a unified system. A multivariable, adaptive, multimode control algorithm has been developed that accommodates degradation-induced thrust disturbances during throttle transients. The baseline controller of the engine model currently being investigated has multiple control modes that are selected according to some performance or operational criteria. As the engine degrades, parameters shift from their nominal values. Thus, when a new control mode is swapped in, a variable that is being brought under control might have an excessive initial error. The new adaptive algorithm adjusts the controller gains on the basis of the level of degradation to minimize the disruptive influence of the large error on other variables and to recover the desired thrust response.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

SIG: Multiple Views on Safety-Critical Automation: Aircraft, Autonomous Vehicles, Air Traffic Management and Satellite Ground Segments Perspectives

This SIG focuses on the engineering of automation in interactive critical systems. Automation has already been studied in a number of (sub-) disciplines and application fields: design, human factors, psychology, (software) engineering, aviation, health care, games. One distinguishing feature of the area we are focusing on is that in the field of interactive critical systems properties such as reliability, dependability, fault tolerance are as important as usability, user experience or overall acceptance issues. The SIG targets at two problem areas: first the engineering of the user interaction with (partly-) autonomous systems: how to design, build and assess autonomous behavior, especially in cases where there is a need to represent on the user interface both autonomous and interactive objects. An example of such integration is the representation of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) (where no direct interaction is possible), together with aircrafts (that have to be instructed by an air traffic controller to avoid the UAV). Second the design and engineering of user interaction in general for autonomous objects/systems (for example a cruise control in a car or an autopilot in an aircraft). The goal of the SIG is to raise interest in the CHI community on the general aspects of automation and to identify a community of researchers and practitioners interested in those increasingly prominent issues of interfaces towards (semi)-autonomous systems. The expected audience should be interested in addressing the issues of integration of mainly unconnected research domains to formulate a new joint research agenda.

human-automation interaction↗

NASA NTRS1995

Detecting gear tooth fracture in a high contact ratio face gear mesh

This paper summarized the results of a study in which three different vibration diagnostic methods were used to detect gear tooth fracture in a high contact ratio face gear mesh. The NASA spiral bevel gear fatigue test rig was used to produce unseeded fault, natural failures of four face gear specimens. During the fatigue tests, which were run to determine load capacity and primary failure mechanisms for face gears, vibration signals were monitored and recorded for gear diagnostic purposes. Gear tooth bending fatigue and surface pitting were the primary failure modes found in the tests. The damage ranged from partial tooth fracture on a single tooth in one test to heavy wear, severe pitting, and complete tooth fracture of several teeth on another test. Three gear fault detection techniques, FM4, NA4*, and NB4, were applied to the experimental data. These methods use the signal average in both the time and frequency domain. Method NA4* was able to conclusively detect the gear tooth fractures in three out of the four fatigue tests, along with gear tooth surface pitting and heavy wear. For multiple tooth fractures, all of the methods gave a clear indication of the damage. It was also found that due to the high contact ratio of the face gear mesh, single tooth fractures did not significantly affect the vibration signal, making this type of failure difficult to detect.

Zakrajsek, James J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Multiple Views on Safety-Critical Automation: Aircraft, Autonomous Vehicles, Air Traffic Management and Satellite Ground Segments Perspectives

This SIG focuses on the engineering of automation in interactive critical systems. Automation has already been studied in a number of (sub-) disciplines and application fields: design, human factors, psychology, (software) engineering, aviation, health care, games. One distinguishing feature of the area we are focusing on is that in the field of interactive critical systems properties such as reliability, dependability, fault-tolerance are as important as usability, user experience or overall acceptance issues. The SIG targets at two problem areas: first the engineering of the user interaction with (partly-) autonomous systems: how to design, build and assess autonomous behavior, especially in cases where there is a need to represent on the user interface both autonomous and interactive objects. An example of such integration is the representation of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) (where no direct interaction is possible), together with aircrafts (that have to be instructed by an air traffic controller to avoid the UAV). Second the design and engineering of user interaction in general for autonomous objects systems (for example a cruise control in a car or an autopilot in an aircraft). The goal of the SIG is to raise interest in the CHI community on the general aspects of automation and to identify a community of researchers and practitioners interested in those increasingly prominent issues of interfaces towards (semi)-autonomous systems. The expected audience should be interested in addressing the issues of integration of mainly unconnected research domains to formulate a new joint research agenda.

safety-critical automation↗

NASA NTRS2010

Shifting the Inertial Navigation Paradigm with MEMS Technology

Why don t you use MEMS? is one of the most common questions posed to navigation systems engineers designing inertial navigation solutions in the modern era. The question stems from a general understanding that great strides have been made in terrestrial MEMS accelerometers and attitude rate sensors in terms of accuracy, mass, and power. Yet, when compared on a unit-to-unit basis, MEMS devices do not provide comparable performance (accuracy) to navigation grade sensors. This paper will propose a paradigm shift where the comparison in performance is between multiple MEMS devices and a single navigation grade sensor. The concept is that systematically, a sufficient number of MEMS sensors may mathematically provide comparable performance to a single navigation grade device and be competitive in terms power and mass allocations when viewed on a systems level. The implication is that both inertial navigation system design and fault detection, identification, and recovery could benefit from a system of MEMS devices in the same way that swarm sensing has benefited Earth observation and astronomy. A survey of the state of the art in inertial sensor accuracy scaled by mass and power will be provided to show the specific error in MEMS and navigation graded devices, a mathematical comparison of multi-unit to single-unit sensor errors will be developed, and preliminary applications to Constellation vehicles will be explored.

Crain, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS2010

Shifting the Intertial Navigation Paradigm with the MEMS Technology

"Why don't you use MEMS?" is of the most common questions posed to navigation systems engineers designing inertial navigation solutions in the modern era. The question stems from a general understanding that great strides have been made in terrestrial MEMS accelerometers and attitude rate sensors in terms of accuracy, mass, and power. Yet, when compared on a unit-to-unit basis, MEMS devices do not provide comparable performance (accuracy) to navigation grade sensors in several key metrics. This paper will propose a paradigm shift where the comparison in performance is between multiple MEMS devices and a single navigation grade sensor. The concept is that systematically, a sufficient number of MEMS sensors may mathematically provide comparable performance to a single navigation grade device and be competitive in terms power and mass allocations when viewed on a systems level. The implication is that both inertial navigation system design and fault detection, identification, and recovery could benefit from a system of MEMS devices in the same way that swarm sensing has benefited Earth observation and astronomy. A survey of the state of the art in inertial sensor accuracy scaled by mass and power will be provided to show the scaled error in MEMS and navigation graded devices, a mathematical comparison of multi-unit to single-unit sensor errors will be developed, and preliminary application to an Orion lunar skip atmospheric entry trajectory will be explored.

Crain, Timothy P., II↗

DOE OSTI2024

Relocation of the 8 September 2023 High Atlas, Morocco, Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

The earthquake that occurred on 8 September 2023, with a magnitude of 6.8, was the most destructive earthquake event in Morocco in the past decade. This earthquake took place in the Al Haouz region, located in the western part of the High Atlas Mountain range. To better understand what caused and triggered this earthquake, the earthquake catalogs including P and S arrival times were collected from the Moroccan seismic network and combined with regional data from the International Seismological Centre. The mainshock and aftershocks were relocated by using iLoc, a state-of-the-art single-event location algorithm, and then by the multiple event location double-difference algorithm, hypoDD. The improved earthquake relocations using iLoc and the double-difference methods provide sharper lineation of seismicity and agree well with tomographic images of the earthquake zone. Finally, the seismicity distribution and the focal mechanism of the mainshock indicate that the earthquake sequence has occurred along the South Atlas fault system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗