Parametric reentry study of elliptic earth orbits with apogees up to 10,000 nautical miles
Mathematical model of parametric reentry study of elliptic earth orbits with apogees up to 10,000 nautical miles
Pruett, W. R.↗
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Cost Modeling for low-cost planetary missions
This presentation will provide an overview of the JPL parametric cost models used to estimate flight science spacecrafts and instruments. This material will emphasize the cost model approaches to estimate low-cost flight hardware, sensors, and instrumentation, and to perform cost-risk assessments. This presentation will also discuss JPL approaches to perform cost modeling and the methodologies and analyses used to capture low-cost vs. key cost drivers.
cost model↗
Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2
This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.
Crespo, Luis G.↗
Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 1
This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean and the variance of the model's parameters, thus of the predicted output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, can be bounded tightly and rigorously.
Crespo, Luis G.↗
Trajectory optimization for the Atlas/Centaur launch vehicle
A method for finding solutions to complex trajectory optimization problems with detailed hardware and launch vehicle constraints is presented. The trajectory optimization problem is formulated as a constrained function minimization problem by modeling the control by a function of a finite number of parameters. Although any parametric control model may be selected, the natural choice of parameters is the actual parameters of the parametric guidance equations flown on the flight digital computer. A variation of the method of multipliers is presented for performing the constrained function minimization. A functional is proposed that allows incorporation of state variable inequality constraints. Finally, optimization of the HEAO-A direct-ascent trajectory is discussed. The HEAO-A mission demonstrates profile optimization to meet range safety, tracking, heating, structural integrity, and attitude rate constraints.
Brusch, R. G.↗
Aircraft Conceptual Design Using Vehicle Sketch Pad
Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP) is a parametric geometry modeling tool that is intended for use in the conceptual design of aircraft. The intent of this software is to rapidly model aircraft configurations without expending the expertise and time that is typically required for modeling with traditional Computer Aided Design (CAD) packages. VSP accomplishes this by using parametrically defined components, such as a wing that is defined by span, area, sweep, taper ratio, thickness to cord, and so on. During this phase of frequent design builds, changes to the model can be rapidly visualized along with the internal volumetric layout. Using this geometry-based approach, parameters such as wetted areas and cord lengths can be easily extracted for rapid external performance analyses, such as a parasite drag buildup. At the completion of the conceptual design phase, VSP can export its geometry to higher fidelity tools. This geometry tool was developed by NASA and is freely available to U.S. companies and universities. It has become integral to conceptual design in the Aeronautics Systems Analysis Branch (ASAB) here at NASA Langley Research Center and is currently being used at over 100 universities, aerospace companies, and other government agencies. This paper focuses on the use of VSP in recent NASA conceptual design studies to facilitate geometry-centered design methodology. Such a process is shown to promote greater levels of creativity, more rapid assessment of critical design issues, and improved ability to quickly interact with higher order analyses. A number of VSP vehicle model examples are compared to CAD-based conceptual design, from a designer perspective; comparisons are also made of the time and expertise required to build the geometry representations as well.
Fredericks, William J.↗
Region and cloud regime dependence of parametric sensitivity in E3SM atmosphere model
Abstract The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), including its atmosphere model (EAM), has many relatively new features. In a previous study we conducted a systematic parametric sensitivity analysis for EAM based on short, perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations, mainly focusing on global mean climate features and metrics. While parameter values in global climate models are generally invariant in space and time, model response to parameters perturbation may vary by regions and climate regimes, which motivates the need to better understand the EAM model behaviors and physics at regional scale and process level. In this study, using the same set of PPE simulations and a similar sensitivity analysis framework, we identify parameters that cause largest sensitivities over different regions and compare model responses in fast atmospheric processes to the parameters across different cloud regimes for several important cloud-related fidelity metrics. We find that cloud forcing has opposite response to some parameters over mid-latitude vs. tropical land. We also analyze how the parametric sensitivity varies as stratocumulus transitions to shallow convection and to deep convection over ocean. Low cloud forcing and shortwave cloud forcing in the subtropical eastern Pacific are most sensitive to the parameters controlling the width of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity ( w’ ) ( gamma ) and the damping of the w’ skewness ( c8 ) near the coast but become more sensitive to the parameter affecting the damping of the w’ variance ( c1 ) further offshore. Detailed interpretation of the spatial dependence of parametric sensitivity is provided. We also investigate how the parametric sensitivity evolves with prediction duration. This study improves our process-level understanding of cloud physics and parameterization and provides insights for developing more advanced regime-aware parameterization schemes in global climate model.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability
Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Aerothermal Analysis of the Rocket Lab Venus Probe Heatshield
This document provides an overview of the aerothermodynamic analyses performed by the Aerothermodynamics Branch at NASA Langley Research Center for the Rocket Lab Venus Probe (RLVP). In addition to defining the baseline heating environment to the heatshield, this document pursues the experimental validation of key physical models at RLVP-relevant conditions. This experimental validation analysis, which captures the model form uncertainty, is used as one of two primary components of the margin assessment, where the other component is the parametric uncertainty. These model form (experimental) and parametric uncertainty components are used to construct a spatial and time varying margin for the heating to the RLVP heatshield. The margin is evaluated as the sum of the parametric and model form uncertainty components. The model form uncertainty is defined as the difference between the RLVP-relevant measurements and their simulations, using the upper limit uncertainty bounds for both the measurements and simulations in the comparisons. The differences in the dominant physics in the stagnation region and flank lead to the separate RLVP-relevant measurements for assessing the model form uncertainty in these two regions. These regions are addressed as follows: Stagnation Region Heating Environment: For the high-temperature stagnation-region, both the radiative heating and impact of blowing on convective heating are significant, while the impacts of turbulence and roughness are negligible. Coupled radiation and ablation LAURA/HARA solutions with ray-tracing provide the radiative heating over the entire vehicle, including the contributions from the Venus atmosphere and ablation species. Non-ablating LAURA simulations provide the convective heating. During the material-response computation typically used for TPS sizing, this non-ablating convective heating is corrected for the impact of ablation using the blowing correction. Coupled ablation LAURA simulations that capture finite-rate sur-face processes show that this blowing correction may be non-conservative over most of the heatshield. This non-conservatism is due to hydrogen recombination in the finite-rate surface model, which tends to increase the coupled ablation convective heating to near the non-ablating values, therefore making any reduction in the non-ablating value through the blowing correction non-conservative. This non-conservatism due to H catalysis is captured in the parametric component of the margin. The best available ground-test measurements that capture the impact of blowing on stagnation region convective heating, at RLVP-relevant conditions, indicate that the current blowing reduction model is non-conservative by up to 20% at RLVP-relevant blowing rates (the coupled blowing simulations were also non-conservative). Because of the relatively low velocity of the ground tests and the non-Venus atmospheric chemistry, these measurements do not capture the chemistry and therefore do not inform the uncertainty due to H catalysis. However, they do capture the fluid mechanics of blowing. The non-conservatism of the blowing correction implied by these measurements is covered by the model form component of the margin, which leads to total margin values over 50%. For the radiative heating, the shock-tube informed bias approach suggests a model form uncertainty of roughly 20%, while the parametric uncertainty analysis suggests values over 100%. The combined stagnation-point radiation margin of over 100% leads to peak margined radiative heating values of over300 W/cm2, which remains small relative to the peak margined convective heating of nearly 2000 W/cm2. Based on this analysis, at the stagnation point, the peak margined heat rate is 2203 W/cm2 and the margined total heat load is 31.5 kJ/cm2 for the current nominal trajectory. Flank Heating Environment: The forebody flank (and near-shoulder) heating environment is dominated by the impact of turbulence, roughness augmentation, and ablation on the convective heating. An extensive collection of ground test measurements with RLVP-relevant turbulence and roughness is studied to show that the maximum difference between the simulated and measured convective heating is 5%. However, with the exception of the Holden measurements from the 1980s, these measurements do not include roughness elements extending into the supersonic region of the boundary layer, which is likely to occur for RLVP (due to the 45 degree sphere-cone geometry). The interaction between the supersonic flow and roughness could cause convective heating augmentation fundamentally different than for locally subsonic flow. Although these Holden measurements are consistent with the other measurements considered, another path was pursued to assure that the rough-ness height extending into supersonic flow does not fundamentally change the roughness augmentation. This additional path was a computational effort to resolve the roughness elements in the CFD grid, so that the interaction be-tween the roughness elements and locally supersonic flow may be simulated in detail. This roughness-resolved CFD simulation is feasible because of the RLVP forebody TPS’s patterned roughness, which may be approximated analytically, and because of the axisymmetric nominal flow field, which allows a narrow surface region to be simulated and therefore make the computational expense feasible. These grid-resolved roughness simulations, which are performed at actual RLVP flight conditions, result in heating augmentation values that are below the design approach for roughness augmentation. This provides evidence that the design approach for RLVP roughness augmentation is sufficient. Based on this analysis, at this flank or near-shoulder location, the peak margined total heat rate is 2088 W/cm2and the margined total heat load is 26.0 kJ/cm2for the current nominal trajectory. Heat flux, shear, pressure and heat transfer coefficient at the RLVP stagnation point and near shoulder location are evaluated for the entire trajectory, and curved fit to a functional form of F=AρB∞UC∞. These simplified relationships for the nominal and margined aerothermal environments are referred to as aerothermal indicators, and presented at the end of this document.
Christopher O Johnston↗
Modeling Personnel Turnover in the Parametric Organization
A primary issue in organizing a new parametric cost analysis function is to determine the skill mix and number of personnel required. The skill mix can be obtained by a functional decomposition of the tasks required within the organization and a matrixed correlation with educational or experience backgrounds. The number of personnel is a function of the skills required to cover all tasks, personnel skill background and cross training, the intensity of the workload for each task, migration through various tasks by personnel along a career path, personnel hiring limitations imposed by management and the applicant marketplace, personnel training limitations imposed by management and personnel capability, and the rate at which personnel leave the organization for whatever reason. Faced with the task of relating all of these organizational facets in order to grow a parametric cost analysis (PCA) organization from scratch, it was decided that a dynamic model was required in order to account for the obvious dynamics of the forming organization. The challenge was to create such a simple model which would be credible during all phases of organizational development. The model development process was broken down into the activities of determining the tasks required for PCA, determining the skills required for each PCA task, determining the skills available in the applicant marketplace, determining the structure of the dynamic model, implementing the dynamic model, and testing the dynamic model.
Dean, Edwin B.↗
Surrogate models for linear response
Linear response theory is a well-established method in physics and chemistry for exploring excitations of many-body systems. In particular, the quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) provides a powerful microscopic framework by building excitations on top of the mean-field vacuum; however, its high computational cost limits model calibration and uncertainty quantification studies. Here, we present two complementary QRPA surrogate models and apply them to study response functions of finite nuclei. One is a reduced-order model that exploits the underlying QRPA structure, while the other utilizes the recently developed parametric matrix model algorithm to construct a map between the system’s Hamiltonian and observables. Our benchmark applications, the calculation of the electric dipole polarizability of 180 Yb and the 𝛽-decay half-life of 80 Ni, show that both emulators can achieve 0.1%–1% accuracy while offering a 6–7 orders of magnitude speedup compared to state-of-the-art QRPA solvers. These results demonstrate that the developed QRPA emulators are well positioned to enable Bayesian calibration and large-scale studies of computationally expensive physics models describing the properties of many-body systems.
Beta decay↗
A test of a cumulus parameterization model using the GATE data
Two parametric, ensemble cloud models were tested with data obtained during GATE (GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment) (1974). The first model is an adaption of the Arakawa-Schubert scheme which uses an entraining jet to represent individual cumulus cloud types. The second model consists of an ensemble of cylindrical cells to represent the convective cloud field.
Rodenhuis, D.↗
Performance Metrics, Error Modeling, and Uncertainty Quantification
A common set of statistical metrics has been used to summarize the performance of models or measurements- the most widely used ones being bias, mean square error, and linear correlation coefficient. They assume linear, additive, Gaussian errors, and they are interdependent, incomplete, and incapable of directly quantifying uncertainty. The authors demonstrate that these metrics can be directly derived from the parameters of the simple linear error model. Since a correct error model captures the full error information, it is argued that the specification of a parametric error model should be an alternative to the metrics-based approach. The error-modeling methodology is applicable to both linear and nonlinear errors, while the metrics are only meaningful for linear errors. In addition, the error model expresses the error structure more naturally, and directly quantifies uncertainty. This argument is further explained by highlighting the intrinsic connections between the performance metrics, the error model, and the joint distribution between the data and the reference.
Quantification↗
Experimental and CFD Investigation of the Titled Jet Behavior in the Zero Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Experiment
Screens are used in cryogenic storage tanks to diffuse the incoming gas or liquid injection/flow into the tank. Meshed screens were also used in the jet mixing pressure control tests of the Zero Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Experiment which was recently performed aboard the International Space Station (ISS). The ZBOT pressure control studies used a liquid jet that was intended to be aligned with the longitudinal axis of the tank. A cartridge consisting of a honeycomb flow straightener and two screen diffusers, one upstream of the honeycomb, and one downstream, were designed to obtain the desired velocity profile in a manner that would be consistent in all the tests and could also be used as an input to the CFD simulations. Unfortunately, during the flight operations, the Digital Particle Image Velocimetry (DPIV) measurements indicated that the jet actually exited the nozzle at an angle to the main axis. This unexpected tilt affected the motion and deformation of the ullage during the pressure control tests, influencing the initial pressure drops. Upon disassembling the experiment hardware, it was discovered that the screen diffuser upstream of the honeycomb was clogged with debris. Since this behavior is important, not only to the follow-on ZBOT-NC experiment, but also to the operation of cryogenics storage tanks in general, a series of ground-based experiments and parametric CFD model simulations were performed to understand and characterize the tilted flow in terms of the clogged area of the upstream screen and the jet velocity. The experimental and CFD results surprisingly and non-intuitively showed that although the modification of the flow originated from the clogging of the upstream screen, the presence of the downstream unclogged screen was also necessary to produce the tilted jet. Two different CFD models were used for the numerical simulations, and only the one using a porous media formulation to capture the screen pressure drop was able to produce the correct tilting behavior. Parametric runs with the porous media CFD model were used to characterize the jet tilt in terms of the blockage area and jet velocity for both the future ZBOT-NC Experiment and other propellant tank applications. Supported by NASA Biological & Physical Sciences (BPS) Division, Physical Sciences Research Program, NASA HQ, USA.
Cryogenic Fluid Management↗
A first scramjet study
A variety of related scramjet engine topics are examined. The flow is assumed to be 1-D, the gas is thermally and calorically perfect, and focus is on low hypersonic Mach numbers. The thrust and lift of an exposed half nozzle, which is used on the aerospace plane, is evaluated as well as a fully confined nozzle. A rough estimate of the drag of an aerospace plane is provided. Thermal effects and shock waves are next discussed. A parametric scramjet model is then presented based on the influence coefficient method, which evaluates the dominant scramjet processes. The independent parameters are the ratio of specific heats, a nondimensional heat addition parameter, and four Mach numbers. The total thrust generated by the combustor and nozzle is shown to be independent of the heat release distribution and the combustor exit Mach number, providing thermal choking is avoided. An operating condition for the combustor is found that maximizes the thrust. An alternative condition is explored when this optimum is no longer realistic. This condition provides a favorable pressure gradient and a reasonable area ratio for the combustor. Parametric results based on the model is provided.
Emanuel, George↗
Search for new physics in high-mass diphoton events from proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{\textrm{s}} $ = 13 TeV
Results are presented from a search for new physics in high-mass diphoton events from proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV. The data set was collected in 2016–2018 with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Events with a diphoton invariant mass greater than 500 GeV are considered. Two different techniques are used to predict the standard model backgrounds: parametric fits to the smoothly-falling background and a first-principles calculation of the standard model diphoton spectrum at next-to-next-to-leading order in perturbative quantum chromodynamics calculations. The first technique is sensitive to resonant excesses while the second technique can identify broad differences in the invariant mass shape. The data are used to constrain the production of heavy Higgs bosons, Randall-Sundrum gravitons, the large extra dimensions model of Arkani-Hamed, Dimopoulos, and Dvali (ADD), and the continuum clockwork mechanism. No statistically significant excess is observed. The present results are the strongest limits to date on ADD extra dimensions and RS gravitons with a coupling parameter greater than 0.1.[graphic not available: see fulltext]
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Computational study of single-expansion-ramp nozzles with external burning
A computational investigation of the effects of external burning on the performance of single expansion ramp nozzles (SERN) operating at transonic speeds is presented. The study focuses on the effects of external heat addition and introduces a simplified injection and mixing model based on a control volume analysis. This simplified model permits parametric and scaling studies that would have been impossible to conduct with a detailed CFD analysis. The CFD model is validated by comparing the computed pressure distribution and thrust forces, for several nozzle configurations, with experimental data. Specific impulse calculations are also presented which indicate that external burning performance can be superior to other methods of thrust augmentation at transonic speeds. The effects of injection fuel pressure and nozzle pressure ratio on the performance of SERN nozzles with external burning are described. The results show trends similar to those reported in the experimental study, and provide additional information that complements the experimental data, improving our understanding of external burning flowfields. A study of the effect of scale is also presented. The results indicate that combustion kinetics do not make the flowfield sensitive to scale.
Yungster, Shaye↗
Structural Configuration Analysis of Crew Exploration Vehicle Concepts
Structural configuration modeling and finite element analysis of crew exploration vehicle (CEV) concepts are presented. In the structural configuration design approach, parametric solid models of the pressurized shell and tanks are developed. The CEV internal cabin pressure is same as in the International Space Station (ISS) to enable docking with the ISS without an intermediate airlock. Effects of this internal pressure load on the stress distribution, factor of safety, mass and deflections are investigated. Uniform 7 mm thick skin shell, 5 mm thick shell with ribs and frames, and isogrid skin construction options are investigated. From this limited study, the isogrid construction appears to provide most strength/mass ratio. Initial finite element analysis results on the service module tanks are also presented. These rapid finite element analyses, stress and factor of safety distribution results are presented as a part of lessons learned and to build up a structural mass estimation and sizing database for future technology support. This rapid structural analysis process may also facilitate better definition of the vehicles and components for rapid prototyping. However, these structural analysis results are highly conceptual and exploratory in nature and do not reflect current configuration designs being conducted at the program level by NASA and industry.
Mukhopadhyay, V.↗