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Forest investigations by polarimetric AIRSAR data in the Harz mountains

The Harz Mountains in the North of Germany have been a study site for several remote sensing investigations since 1985, as the mountainous area is one of the forest regions in Germany heavily affected by forest decline, especially in the high altitudes above 800 m. In a research program at the University of Berlin, methods are developed for improving remote sensing assessment of forest structure and forest state by additional GIS information, using several datasets for establishing a forest information system. The Harz has been defined as a test site for the SIR-C/X-SAR mission which is going to deliver multifrequency and multipolarizational SAR data from orbit. In a pilot project let by DLR-DFD, these data are to be investigated for forestry and ecology purposes. In preparing a flight campaign to the SIR-C / X-SAR mission, 'MAC EUROPE 1991', performed by NASA/JPL, an area of about 12 km in the Northern Harz was covered with multipolarizational AIRSAR data in the C-, L- and P-band, including the Brocken, the highest mountain of the Harz, with an altitude of 1142 m. The multiparameter AIRSAR data are investigated for their information content on the forest state, regarding the following questions: (1) information on forest stand parameters like forest types, age classes and crown density, especially for the separation of deciduous and coniferous forest; (2) information on the storm damages (since 1972) and the status of regeneration; (3) information on the status of forest destruction because of forest decline; and (4) influence of topography, local incidence angle and soil moisture on the SAR data. Within the project various methods and tools have been developed for the investigation of multipolarimetric radar backscatter responses and for discrimination purposes, in order to use the multipolarization information of the compressed Stokes matrix delivered by JPL.

Keil, M.↗

Quantifying atmospheric carbon removal at pulp and paper mills: a life cycle assessment across system boundaries

The pulp and paper industry is a promising yet underexplored platform for large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) due to its use of biogenic feedstocks and production of concentrated CO 2 emissions from point sources. This study presents the first comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) of retrofitting an amine-based carbon capture and storage (CCS) system into a representative virgin kraft pulp and paper mill in the Southeastern U.S. We evaluate carbon removal across five system configurations, applying both static and dynamic LCA methods under multiple functional units: CO 2 captured, biomass input, and paper output. Results show that CCS retrofits can convert a conventional mill from a net emitter into a net carbon sink, with total removal efficiencies from 17% to 92% (metric tonnes of CO 2 removed per metric tonne of CO 2 available for removal under selected boundary conditions). When carbon removal is normalized to the quantity of biogenic CO 2 captured—a narrow, gate-to-gate system boundary that considers only CCS facility emissions—removal efficiencies reached as high as 92%. The use of such narrow boundaries aligns with precedents in traditional LCA methodology, where gate-to-gate assessments are commonly applied to isolate process-level performance and allocate emissions accordingly, providing a consistent basis for comparison across technologies. Under broader cradle-to-grave boundaries—which begin tracking carbon at the point of its physical removal from the atmosphere via photosynthesis in the forest, and extend to include upstream forest operations, mill-wide emissions, and downstream product decomposition—efficiencies declined, ranging from 17% to 46% under static assumptions and dropping to 12% when accounting for dynamic biogenic carbon fluxes over time. These results underscore how system boundary definitions influence reported outcomes, while also illustrating the complementary roles of narrow and broad perspectives for different decision-making contexts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Disruption of starch biosynthesis and triacylglycerol degradation impairs growth but improves photosynthesis in Arabidopsis

Enhancing lipid accumulation by redirecting carbon from starch to triacylglycerol (TAG) in vegetative tissues is a promising strategy for developing high-energy-density crops for bioenergy production. However, our understanding of how starch and TAG metabolism interact and how this interaction affects growth and photosynthesis is incomplete. Here, we investigated the metabolic and physiological consequences of disrupting starch biosynthesis and TAG turnover in Arabidopsis thaliana by generating single, double, and triple mutants involving ADG1 (starch biosynthesis), TGD1 (lipid trafficking), and SDP1\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n(TAG lipase). Unexpectedly, elimination of starch biosynthesis lowered TAG levels in the high-TAG-accumulating tgd1 mutant, primarily through enhanced TAG breakdown. This decline was completely reversed by sucrose supplementation, suggesting that TAG degradation was induced by carbon limitation.\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nGenetic suppression of TAG turnover via SDP1 disruption in the starchless tgd1 adg1-1 background led to a nine-fold rise in leaf TAG accumulation in the tgd1 sdp1 adg1-1 triple mutant, together with enhanced photosynthetic performance. However, this metabolic reprogramming incurred growth penalties.\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nOur results highlight the role of dynamic TAG turnover in maintaining metabolic balance and photosynthesis in starch-deficient backgrounds. These findings underscore the need for refined metabolic engineering strategies that coordinate TAG biosynthesis and degradation to optimize lipid accumulation in bioenergy crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Potosi Reservoir Model 2013

As a part of a larger project co-funded by the United States Department of Energy (US DOE) to evaluate the potential of formations within the Cambro-Ordovician strata above the Mt. Simon as potential targets for carbon sequestration in the Illinois and Michigan Basins, the Illinois Clean Coal Institute (ICCI) requested Schlumberger to evaluate the potential injectivity and carbon dioxide (CO2) plume size of the Cambrian Potosi Formation. The evaluation of this formation was accomplished using wireline data, core data, pressure data, and seismic data from the US DOE-funded Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP) being conducted by the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium in Macon County, Illinois. In 2010, technical performance evaluations on the Cambrian Potosi Formation were performed through reservoir modeling. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the VW1 and the CCS1 wells, structural and stratigraphic formation from three dimensional (3D) seismic data, and field data from several waste water injection wells for Potosi Formation. Intention was for two million tons per annum (MTPA) of CO2 to be injected for 20 years. In the preceding, the 2010 Potosi heterogeneous model (referred to as the "Potosi Dynamic Model 2010" in this topical report) was re-run using a new injection scenario; 3.2 MTPA for 30 years. The extent of the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010, however, appeared too small for the new injection target. It was not sufficiently large enough to accommodate the evolution of the plume. The new model, Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a, was built by extending the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010 grid to 30 miles x 30 miles (48.3km x48.3km), while preserving all property modeling workflows and layering. This model was retained as the base case of Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a. The Potosi reservoir model was updated to take into account the new data from the verification well VW2 which was drilled in 2012. The new porosity and permeability modeling was performed to take into account the log data from the new well. Revisions of the 2010 modeling assumptions were also done on relative permeability, capillary pressures, formation water salinity, and the maximum allowable well bottomhole pressure. Dynamic simulations were run using the injection target of 3.2 MTPA for 30 years. This new dynamic model was named Potosi Dynamic Model 2013b. Due to the major uncertainties on the vugs permeability, two models were built; the Pessimistic and Optimistic Cases. The Optimistic Case assumes vugs permeability of 9,000 mD, which is analog to the vugs permeability identified in the pressure fall off test of a waste water injector in the Tuscola site, approx. 40 miles (64.4km) away from the IBDP area. The Pessimistic Case assumes that the vugs permeability is equal to the log data, which does not take into account the permeability from secondary porosity. The probability of such case is deemed low and could be treated as the worst case scenario, since the contribution of secondary porosity to the permeability is neglected and the loss circulation events might correspond to a much higher permeability. It is considered important, however, to identify the range of possible reservoir performance since there are no rigorous data available for the vugs permeability. The Optimistic Case gives an average CO2 injection rate of 0.8 MTPA and cumulative injection of 26 MT in 30 years, which corresponds to 27% of the injection target. The injection rate is approx. 3.2 MTPA in the first year as the well is injecting into the surrounding vugs, and declines rapidly to 0.8 MTPA in year 4 once the surrounding vugs are full and the CO2 start to reach the matrix. This implies that according to this preliminary model, a minimum of four (4) wells could be required to achieve the injection target. This result is lower than the injectivity estimated in the Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a (43 MT in 30 years), since the permeability model applied in the Potosi Dynamic Model 2013b is more conservative. This revision was deemed necessary to treat the uncertainty in a more appropriate manner. As the CO2 follows the paths where vugs interconnection exists, a reasonably large and irregular plume extent was created. For the Optimistic Case, the plume extends 17 miles (27.4km) in E-W and 14 miles (22.5km) in N-S directions after 30 years. After injection is completed, the plume continues to migrate laterally, mainly driven by the remaining pressure gradient. After 100 years post injection, the plume extends 20 miles (32.2km) in E-W and 15.5 miles (24.9km) in N-S directions. Should the targeted cumulative injection of 96 MT be achieved; a much larger plume extent could be expected. For the Optimistic Case, the increase of reservoir pressure at the end of injection is approximately 1200 psia (8,274 kPa) around the injector and gradually decreases away from the well. The reservoir pressure increase is less than 30 psia (206.8 kPa) beyond 14 miles (22.5km) away from injector. Should the targeted cumulative injection of 96 MT be achieved; a much larger areal pressure increase could be expected. The initial reservoir pressure is nearly restored after approximately 100 years post injection. The presence of matrix slows down the pressure dissipations. The Pessimistic Case gives an average CO2 injection rate of 0.2 MTPA and cumulative injection of 7 MT in 30 years, which corresponds to 7% of the injection target. This implies that in the worst case scenario, a minimum of sixteen (16) wells could be required to achieve the injection target. The present evaluation is mainly associated with uncertainty on the vugs permeability, distribution, and interconnectivity. The different results indicated by the Optimistic and Pessimistic Cases signify the importance of vugs permeability characterization. Therefore, injection test and pressure interference test among the wells could be considered to evaluate the local vugs permeability, extent, and interconnectivity. Porosity mapping derived from the seismic inversion could also be used in the succeeding task to characterize the lateral porosity distribution within the reservoir. With or without seismic inversion porosity mapping, it is worth exploring whether increased lateral heterogeneity plays a significant role in Potosi injectivity. Investigations on vugular, dolomitic outcrops suggest that there may be significantly greater lateral heterogeneity than what has been modeled here. Facies modeling within the Potosi has yet to be thoroughly addressed. The carbonates during the time of deposition are believed to be regionally extensive. However, it may be worth delineating the reservoir with other regional wells or modern day analogues to understand the extent of the Potosi. More specifically, the model could incorporate lateral changes or trends if deemed necessary to represent facies transition. Data acquisitions to characterize the fracture pressure gradient, the formation water properties, the relative permeability, and the capillary pressure could also be considered in order to allow a more rigorous evaluation of the Potosi storage performance. A simulation using several injectors could also be considered to determine the required number of wells to achieve the injection target while taking into account the pressure interference.

Adushita, Yasmin↗

Continuous enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass in a membrane-reactor system: Continuous enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass in a membrane-reactor system

Converting abundant lignocellulosic biomass to sugars as fungible precursors to fuels and chemicals has the potential to diversify the supply chain for those products, but further process improvements are needed to achieve economic viability. In the current work, process intensification of the key enzymatic hydrolysis unit operation is demonstrated by means of a membrane reactor system that was operated continuously. Lignocellulosic biomass (pretreated corn stover) and buffered enzyme solution were fed to a continuously stirred-tank reactor, and clarified sugar solution was withdrawn via a commercial tubular ultrafiltration membrane. The membrane permeance decline and membrane cleaning efficacy were studied and did not vary significantly when increasing fraction insoluble solids (FIS) from 2.5% to 5%. Continuous enzymatic hydrolysis was successfully operated for more than 80 h. A model for the reactor system was able to predict dynamic behavior that was in reasonable agreement with experimental results. The modeled technical performance of anticipated commercial batch and continuous enzymatic hydrolysis processes were compared and showed that continuous operation would provide at least twice the volumetric productivity for the conditions studied. Further improvements are anticipated by better membrane selection and by increasing FIS.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Evaluating the SWAT Model for Hydrological Modeling in the Xixian Watershed and A Comparison with the XAJ Model

Already declining water availability in Huaihe River, the 6th largest river in China, is further stressed by climate change and intense human activities. There is a pressing need for a watershed model to better understand the interaction between land use activities and hydrologic processes and to support sustainable water use planning. In this study, we evaluated the performance of SWAT for hydrologic modeling in the Xixian River Basin, located at the headwaters of the Huaihe River, and compared its performance with the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model that has been widely used in China

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in Cervical Cancer FDG Uptake During Chemoradiation and Association With Response

Purpose: Previous research showed that pretreatment uptake of F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG), as assessed by the maximal standardized uptake value (SUV{sub max}) and the variability of uptake (FDG{sub hetero}), predicted for posttreatment response in cervical cancer. In this pilot study, we evaluated the changes in SUV{sub max} and FDG{sub hetero} during concurrent chemoradiation for cervical cancer and their association with post-treatment response. Methods and Materials: Twenty-five patients with stage Ib1-IVa cervical cancer were enrolled. SUV{sub max}, FDG{sub hetero}, and metabolic tumor volume (MTV) were recorded from FDG-positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) scans performed pretreatment and during weeks 2 and 4 of treatment and were evaluated for changes and association with response assessed on 3-month post-treatment FDG-PET/CT. Results: For all patients, the average pretreatment SUV{sub max} was 17.8, MTV was 55.4 cm{sup 3}, and FDG{sub hetero} was -1.33. A similar decline in SUV{sub max} was seen at week 2 compared with baseline and week 4 compared with week 2 (34%). The areas of highest FDG uptake in the tumor remained relatively consistent on serial scans. Mean FDG{sub hetero} decreased during treatment. For all patients, MTV decreased more from week 2 to week 4 than from pretreatment to week 2. By week 4, the average SUV{sub max} had decreased by 57% and the MTV had decreased by 30%. Five patients showed persistent or new disease on 3-month post-treatment PET. These poor responders showed a higher average SUV{sub max}, larger MTV, and greater heterogeneity at all 3 times. Week 4 SUV{sub max} (P=.037), week 4 FDG{sub hetero} (P=.005), pretreatment MTV (P=.008), and pretreatment FDG{sub hetero} (P=.008) were all significantly associated with post-treatment PET response. Conclusions: SUV{sub max} shows a consistent rate of decline during treatment and declines at a faster rate than MTV regresses. Based on this pilot study, pretreatment and week 4 of treatment represent the best time points for prediction of response.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Using learning curves on energy-efficient technologies to estimate future energy savings and emission reduction potentials in the U.S. iron and steel industry

Increasing concerns on non-sustainable energy use and climate change spur a growing research interest in energy efficiency potentials in various critical areas such as industrial production. This paper focuses on learning curve aspects of energy efficiency measures in the U.S iron and steel sector. A number of early-stage efficient technologies (i.e., emerging or demonstration technologies) are technically feasible and have the potential to make a significant contribution to energy saving and CO 2 emissions reduction, but fall short economically to be included. However, they may also have the cost effective potential for significant cost reduction and/or performance improvement in the future under learning effects such as ‘learning-by-doing’. The investigation is carried out using ISEEM, a technology oriented, linear optimization model. We investigated how steel demand is balanced with/without the availability learning curve, compared to a Reference scenario. The retrofit (or investment in some cases) costs of energy efficient technologies decline in the scenario where learning curve is applied. The analysis also addresses market penetration of energy efficient technologies, energy saving, and CO 2 emissions in the U.S. iron and steel sector with/without learning impact. Accordingly, the study helps those who use energy models better manage the price barriers preventing unrealistic diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies, better understand the market and learning system involved, predict future achievable learning rates more accurately, and project future savings via energy-efficiency technologies with presence of learning. We conclude from our analysis that, most of the existing energy efficiency technologies that are currently used in the U.S. iron and steel sector are cost effective. Penetration levels increases through the years, even though there is no price reduction. However, demonstration technologies are not economically feasible in the U.S. iron and steel sector with the current cost structure. In contrast, some of the demonstration technologies are adapted in the mid-term and their penetration levels increase as the prices go down with learning curve. We also observe large penetration of 225kg pulverized coal injection with the presence of learning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Teamwork for Oversight of Processes and Systems (TOPS). Implementation guide for TOPS version 2.0, 10 August 1992

As the nation redefines priorities to deal with a rapidly changing world order, both government and industry require new approaches for oversight of management systems, particularly for high technology products. Declining defense budgets will lead to significant reductions in government contract management personnel. Concurrently, defense contractors are reducing administrative and overhead staffing to control costs. These combined pressures require bold approaches for the oversight of management systems. In the Spring of 1991, the DPRO and TRW created a Process Action Team (PAT) to jointly prepare a Performance Based Management (PBM) system titled Teamwork for Oversight of Processes and Systems (TOPS). The primary goal is implementation of a performance based management system based on objective data to review critical TRW processes with an emphasis on continuous improvement. The processes are: Finance and Business Systems, Engineering and Manufacturing Systems, Quality Assurance, and Software Systems. The team established a number of goals: delivery of quality products to contractual terms and conditions; ensure that TRW management systems meet government guidance and good business practices; use of objective data to measure critical processes; elimination of wasteful/duplicative reviews and audits; emphasis on teamwork--all efforts must be perceived to add value by both sides and decisions are made by consensus; and synergy and the creation of a strong working trust between TRW and the DPRO. TOPS permits the adjustment of oversight resources when conditions change or when TRW systems performance indicate either an increase or decrease in surveillance is appropriate. Monthly Contractor Performance Assessments (CPA) are derived from a summary of supporting system level and process-level ratings obtained from objective process-level data. Tiered, objective, data-driven metrics are highly successful in achieving a cooperative and effective method of measuring performance. The teamwork-based culture developed by TOPS proved an unequaled success in removing adversarial relationships and creating an atmosphere of continuous improvement in quality processes at TRW. The new working relationship does not decrease the responsibility or authority of the DPRO to ensure contract compliance and it permits both parties to work more effectively to improve total quality and reduce cost. By emphasizing teamwork in developing a stronger approach to efficient management of the defense industrial base TOPS is a singular success.

Strand, Albert A.↗

Local Recurrence in Women With Stage I Breast Cancer: Declining Rates Over Time in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

Purpose: To evaluate whether local recurrence (LR) risk has changed over time among women with stage I breast cancer treated with breast-conserving therapy. Methods and Materials: Subjects were 5974 women aged ≥50 years diagnosis with pT1N0 breast cancer from 1989 to 2006, treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation therapy. Clinicopathologic characteristics, treatment, and LR outcomes were compared among 4 cohorts stratified by year of diagnosis: 1989 to 1993 (n=1077), 1994 to 1998 (n=1633), 1999 to 2002 (n=1622), and 2003 to 2006 (n=1642). Multivariable analysis was performed, with year of diagnosis as a continuous variable. Results: Median follow-up time was 8.6 years. Among patients diagnosed in 1989 to 1993, 1994 to 1998, 1999 to 2002, and 2003 to 2006, the proportions of grade 1 tumors increased (16% vs 29% vs 40% vs 39%, respectively, P<.001). Surgical margin clearance rates increased from 82% to 93% to 95% and 88%, respectively (P<.001). Over time, the proportions of unknown estrogen receptor (ER) status decreased (29% vs 10% vs 1.2% vs 0.5%, respectively, P<.001), whereas ER-positive tumors increased (56% vs 77% vs 86% vs 86%, respectively, P<.001). Hormone therapy use increased (23% vs 23% vs 62% vs 73%, respectively, P<.001), and chemotherapy use increased (2% vs 5% vs 10% vs 13%, respectively, P<.001). The 5-year cumulative incidence rates of LR over the 4 time periods were 2.8% vs 1.7% vs 0.9% vs 0.8%, respectively (Gray's test, P<.001). On competing risk multivariable analysis, year of diagnosis was significantly associated with decreased LR (hazard ratio, 0.92 per year, P=.0003). Relative to grade 1 histology, grades 2, 3, and unknown were associated with increased LR. Hormone therapy use was associated with reduced LR. Conclusion: Significant changes in the multimodality management of stage I breast cancer have occurred over the past 2 decades. More favorable-risk tumors were diagnosed, and margin clearance and systemic therapy use increased. These changes contributed to the observed declining LR rates among patients treated with breast-conserving therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence: Model Projection Weighting Scheme

Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Screening Model to Predict Microalgae Biomass Growth in Photobioreactors and Raceway Ponds

A microalgae biomass growth model was developed for screening novel strains for their potential to exhibit high biomass productivities under nutrient-replete conditions in photobioreactors or outdoor ponds. Growth is modeled by first estimating the light attenuation by biomass according to Beer-Lambert’s law, and then calculating the specific growth rate in discretized culture volume slices that receive declining light intensities due to attenuation. The model requires only two physical and two species-specific biological input parameters, all of which are relatively easy to determine: incident light intensity, culture depth, as well as the biomass light absorption coefficient and the specific growth rate as a function of light intensity. Roux bottle culture experiments were performed with Nannochloropsis salina at constant temperature (23 °C) at six different incident light intensities (5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 850 μmol/m2∙ sec) to determine both the specific growth rate under non-shading conditions and the biomass light absorption coefficient as a function of light intensity. The model was successful in predicting the biomass growth rate in these Roux bottle cultures during the light-limited linear phase at different incident light intensities. Model predictions were moderately sensitive to minor variations in the values of input parameters. The model was also successful in predicting the growth performance of Chlorella sp. cultured in LED-lighted 800 L raceway ponds operated at constant temperature (30 °C) and constant light intensity (1650 μmol/m2∙ sec). Measurements of oxygen concentrations as a function of time demonstrated that following exposure to darkness, it takes at least 5 seconds for cells to initiate dark respiration. As a result, biomass loss due to dark respiration in the aphotic zone of a culture is unlikely to occur in highly mixed small-scale photobioreactors where cells move rapidly in and out of the light. By contrast, as supported also by the growth model, biomass loss due to dark respiration occurs in the dark zones of the relatively less well mixed pond cultures. In addition to screening novel microalgae strains for high biomass productivities, the model can also be used for optimizing the pond design and operation. Additional research is needed to validate the biomass growth model for other microalgae species and for the more realistic case of fluctuating temperatures and light intensities observed in outdoor pond cultures.

biomass growth model↗

Measurement-Based Approach for Inertia-Trend Analysis of the US Western Interconnection

Rising deployment of inverter-based resources (IBRs), characterized by a lack of rotating mass, is decreasing the total inertia of the system. This can lead to an increased Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) during the disturbance and false activation of protective devices. There is a need to assess the inertia over the past decade amidst the evolving landscape of renewable energy sources to develop strategies for integrating energy storage, enhancing resilience measures, and ensuring the stable and reliable operation of the grid. Therefore, a realistic assessment of the inertia trend using a measurement-based approach that addresses the limitations of existing models is proposed. An inertia study of the Western Interconnection in the United States is performed utilizing the data from 2013 to 2022, obtained from FNET/ GridEye network. The three-second RoCoF time window is chosen for the study as it showed an optimum balance between a strong correlation with the power imbalance (ΔP) and minimum inclusion of primary response from governor. The obtained inertia trend result shows a small percentage declination of inertia over the decade. By examining the result alongside a generation mix graph, insights are gained into the dynamic interplay between shifting energy landscape and system inertia.

Dulal, Saurav↗

First Ever Polymer Flood Field Pilot to Enhance the Recovery of Heavy Oils on Alaska North Slope – Producer Responses and Operational Lessons Learned

The US Department of Energy and Hilcorp Alaska, LLC are jointly cosponsoring a field pilot project entitled “First Ever Field Pilot on Alaska’s North Slope to Validate the Use of Polymer Floods for Heavy Oil Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR).” The objective of this pilot is to perform a field experiment to validate the use of an advanced polymer flooding technology to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on Alaska North Slope (ANS). Two pairs of horizontal injection and production wells have been deployed in an isolated fault block of the Schrader Bluff heavy oil reservoir at the Milne Point Field to conduct a polymer flood pilot which was designed to acquire field performance data to optimize polymer flood design in the Schrader Bluff heavy oil reservoirs on ANS. Hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM) polymer injection started on August 28, 2018 using a custom made polymer mixing and pumping unit. Polymer solution properties such as concentration, viscosity, and filter ratio, have been closely monitored and adjusted as necessary. Operational procedures have been improved to ensure adequate injectivity and polymer propagation through the formation. Oil and water production is tested frequently to monitor water cut performance, and produced water is sampled and analyzed for polymer content. Tracers were pumped pre and post polymer injection startup to compare polymer flood breakthrough timing and sweep efficiency. Polymer injectivity of the horizontal wells drilled in the Schrader Bluff NB sand is found to be sufficient to replace the reservoir production voidage although there were some declines as high viscosity polymer swept the near wellbore region. Production data show significant reduction in water cut and the oil production rate has stabilized. No polymer production has been confirmed from the two horizontal producers after 22 months of polymer injection into the two supporting horizontal injectors. Tracer data show very low sweep efficiencies with waterflood alone, whereas significant improvement has been achieved with polymer flood. Many operational lessons have been learned and improvements have been made regarding polymer mixing, pumping, and onsite quality control, particularly in a challenging Arctic environment. Adequate polymer injection rate can be achieved with diligent monitoring and quality assurance of the properties of the injected polymer solution.

Ning, Samson↗

Crack Growth Rate and Fracture Toughness of Stainless Steel Welds in Light Water Reactor Environment

Austenitic stainless steel welds play a crucial role in maintaining the structural integrity of light water reactors. Within the reactor core, stainless steel welds endure a harsh service environment including elevated temperature, corrosive coolant, and intense neutron irradiation. Long-term exposure to such a severe service environment could lead to performance degradation. To ensure the safe and economic operation of light water reactors, this study performed crack growth rate and fracture toughness tests on irradiated and thermally aged weld samples harvested from decommissioned reactor components. In a low-corrosion-potential environment, stainless steel welds showed resistance to stress corrosion cracking, and the measured crack propagation rates were comparable to those of wrought stainless steels under similar test conditions. However, a marked decline in fracture toughness was observed in weld samples, particularly in irradiated samples. Fracture instability was observed at ~0.8 dpa, significantly lower than those observed in wrought stainless steels. Further research at higher doses is needed to evaluate the dose dependence of irradiation-induced embrittlement, and to understand the interplay between thermal aging and neutron irradiation in stainless steel welds.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Summary of presentation for research on social structure, agreement, and conflict in groups in extreme and isolated environments

Despite a vast amount of research, little is known concerning the effect of group structure, and individuals' understanding of that structure, on conflict in Antarctic groups. The overall objective of the research discussed is to determine the interrelationships of group structure, social cognition, and group function and conflict in isolated and extreme environments. In the two decades following WWII, a large body of research focused on the physiological, psychological, and social psychological factors affecting the functioning of individuals and groups in a variety of extreme and isolated environments in both the Arctic and Antarctic. There are two primary reasons for further research of this type. First, Antarctic polar stations are considered to be natural laboratories for the social and behavioral sciences and provide an opportunity to address certain theoretical and empirical questions concerned with agreement and conflict in social groups in general and group behavior in extreme, isolated environments in particular. Recent advances in the analysis of social networks and intracultural variation have improved the methods and have shifted the theoretical questions. The research is motivated by three classes of questions: (1) What are the characteristics of the social relations among individuals working and living together in extreme and isolated environments?; (2) What do individuals understand about their group, how does that understanding develop, and how is it socially distributed?; and (3) What is the relationship between that understanding and the functioning of the social group? Answers to these questions are important if we are to advance our knowledge of how individuals and groups adapt to extreme environments. Second, although Antarctic winter-over candidates may be evaluated as qualified on the basis of individual characteristics, they may fail to adapt because of certain characteristics of the social group. Consequently, the ability of winter-over-groups to adapt to these extreme conditions has varied dramatically from year to year. In the past, differences in personality, background, and social status have led to conflicts between individuals or cliques precipitating, in turn, an overall decline in morale, failure to accomplish work tasks, and increases in insomnia, depression, anxiety, and alcohol abuse. A better understanding of the role of group structure and social cognition in processes of group adaptation and conflict in Antarctica would contribute towards the revision of existing screening methods, potentially leading to a reduction of group conflict and improved performance of scientific research and support activities. An improved screening protocol for the Antarctic would also have applications for other isolated environments such as scientific outposts and the proposed NASA space station. In sum, this research will (1) contribute significantly to our theoretical understanding of the role of social structure and cognition in the functioning of groups in isolation; (2) complement current work on health and adaptation in polar environments; and (3) provide for models of the formation of group structure that will aid in the development of improved procedures for assembling groups for the Antarctic and other isolated environments (e.g., space stations).

Source record↗

The Star Formation History of Orion and its Environs

During the period of performance, we have obtained the following observations and carried out the analysis of the Orion associations itemized below. Optical Photometry: The Quest camera that had been damaged by lightning on Sept. 2001 was reconfigured to use 10 chips and only 3 filters instead of the original 4 but retaining its spatial coverage of 2.3deg wide in declination. During the Winter and Fall 2002 observing campaigns, we obtained multifilter photometry using the Quest camera on the 1mt Schmidt of the Venezuelan National Observatory, to continue the survey of the Orion clouds. In the Winter 2002 season, we obtained photometry for 10 scans at DEC=+5, 7 scans at DEC=-5. Several additional scans at DEC=-3 were obtained during the Fall 2002 observing campaign. Slit spectroscopy of bright candidates: During 2002 spectra for some 235 candidate PMS stars were obtained with the FAST spectrograph at the SAO 1.5m telescope in Mt. Hopkins. These objects, all brighter than V=16, are located in two strips centered at DEC=+l and -5, and spanning from RA=5h-6h. The spectra are being analyzed. Multifiber spectroscopy: Spectroscopy for our fainter (V less than or equal to 16) candidates has not kept pace with our spectroscopy of brighter candidates, because of the delay in the commissioning of the Hectospec and Hectoechelle multi-object spectrographs at the new 6.5m MMT. We obtained some data with the Hydra spectrograph on the WIYN telescope: Feb 1-4, 2002. Time granted to the project: "A Large Scale Survey of the Low-Mass Young Population in the Orion OB1 Association" (P.I.: C. Briceno). Three half-nights (we used the first half of the night, the second half of the night was used with the Mini-Mosaic imager by another team). Only the first half night was clear. We observed 3 fields centered in a 2.3 deg wide strip centered at DEC=-1 and spanning RA=Sh to 6h. A total of 250 spectra were obtained for the same number of candidate PMS stars. Nov. 13-15, 2002. Time granted to the project "Cluster survey of protoplanetary disk evolution", (P.I.: A. Sicilia-Aguilar). Clear weather throughout. We obtained spectra for some 200 candidate PMS stars in 3 fields located in a 2.3 deg wide strip centered at DEC=+l and spanning from RA=5h20m to 5h35m. Data for both observing runs is partially reduced and is being analyzed. U photometry: During Nov.29-Dec.4, 2002 we were granted time with the 4-shooter CCD Mosaic Camera at the SAO 1.2m telescope, to obtain U-band photometry of a subset of the newly identified T Tauri stars in the strip centered at DEC=-1. This sample is composed of strong H(alpha) emitting PMS stars (Classical T Tauri stars) located mostly in the Orion OB lb association, around the Orion Belt area. Our data will be combined with our calibration of the U-band excess (Gullbring et al. 1998) to derive mass accretion rates. Because of bad weather we observed only 20 stars during 1.5 clear nights. Near IR photometry: During Dec. 14-19, 2002 we used the IR Camera on the SAO 1.2m telescope, to obtain L-band photometry of a set of 17 the newly identified Orion OB 1a and 1b stars, in order to look for IR excess emission coming from the hotter inner parts of circumstellar disks. Again, mediocre weather prevented a larger set to be observed. These stars were also observed with the OSCIR mid-IR camera on Gemini North during later 2001. Our goal is to construct SEDs from the visual out to the mid-IR (by combining our optical/IR data with 2MASS JHK magnitudes) in order to explore disk dissipation at the critical ages of 5-10 Myr spanned by these stars.

Calvet, Nuria↗

Comment on "Observation of Large and All-Season Ozone Losses Over the Tropics" [AIP Advances 12, 075066 (2022)]

As discussed above, and supported by extensive literature, there is no robust, credible observational evidence for substantial ozone depletion (i.e., an “ozone hole”) in the tropics. It is well known that climatological total ozone in the tropics is much lower than that in the mid-latitudes (e.g., Sahai et al., 2000; Weber et al., 2022). Satellite and ozonesonde measurements indicate a 3%–5% per decade decline of tropical lower stratosphere ozone prior to 2000, far smaller than that reported by L2022. The stronger decline reported by L2022 is caused by inappropriate use of the gap-filled version of the TOST ozone dataset, which is based on sparse tropical ozone sondes before the 1990s. This misuse of data (TOST and total column ozone) shows the importance of collaboratively engaging with groups who obtain the measurements and create climatological datasets before performing such analyses. Furthermore, the study by L2022 has multiple flaws in its discussion of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, particularly in the proposed, and previously refuted (see Sec. III A), cosmicray- driven electron induced (CRE) mechanism. Evidence for the occurrence of tropical stratospheric clouds, as needed for the tropical CRE mechanism, is lacking, nor do CFC-12 observations show signatures of depletion in the tropical lower stratosphere, which could be associated with dissociative electron attachment-induced loss of CFC-12 on particulate matter (i.e., the CRE mechanism). Finally, it is worth reiterating that the CRE mechanism is also not responsible for polar LS ozone depletion. Polar ozone loss can be well explained by the gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry, based on extensive observations and modeling studies documented in many thousands of scientific papers on the topic [e.g., see WMO (2018) and references therein], which is not acknowledged by L2022. L2022’s research paper is a severely flawed one. There is no tropical ozone hole, and the CRE mechanism does not explain observed changes in stratospheric ozone either in the polar regions or in the tropics.

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