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At least 469 records · Page 26

Analysis of the Warmest Arctic Winter, 2015-2016

December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

Barents and Kara Seas↗

Prompt Injections of Highly Relativistic Electrons Induced by Interplanetary Shocks: A Statistical Study of Van Allen Probes Observations

We conduct a statistical study on the sudden response of outer radiation belt electrons due to interplanetary (IP) shocks during the Van Allen Probes era, i.e., 2012 to 2015. Data from the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope instrument on board Van Allen Probes are used to investigate the highly relativistic electron response (E greater than 1.8 MeV) within the first few minutes after shock impact. We investigate the relationship of IP shock parameters, such as Mach number, with the highly relativistic electron response, including spectral properties and radial location of the shock-induced injection. We find that the driving solar wind structure of the shock does not affect occurrence for enhancement events, 25% of IP shocks are associated with prompt energization, and 14% are associated with MeV electron depletion. Parameters that represent IP shock strength are found to correlate best with highest levels of energization, suggesting that shock strength may play a key role in the severity of the enhancements. However, not every shock results in an enhancement, indicating that magnetospheric preconditioning may be required.

Schiller, Q.↗

Assessment of Delivery Accuracy in an Operational-Like Environment

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) environment, ground-based sequencing and scheduling functions were developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling tools are designed to assist air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy, from enroute down to the terminal area boundary. NASA developed a ground system concept and protoype capability called Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) to extend metering operations into the terminal area to the runway. To demonstrate the use of these scheduling and spacing tools in an operational-like environment, the FAA, NASA, and MITRE conducted an Operational Integration Assessment (OIA) of a prototype TSAS system at the FAA's William J. Hughes Technical Center (WJHTC). This paper presents an analysis of the arrival management strategies utilized and delivery accuracy achieved during the OIA. The analysis demonstrates how en route preconditioning, in various forms, and schedule disruptions impact delivery accuracy. As the simulation spanned both enroute and terminal airspace, the use of Ground Interval Management - Spacing (GIM-S) enroute speed advisories was investigated. Delivery accuracy was measured as the difference between the Scheduled Time of Arrival (STA) and the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA). The delivery accuracy was computed across all runs conducted during the OIA, which included deviations from nominal operations which are known to commonly occur in real operations, such as schedule changes and missed approaches. Overall, 83% of all flights were delivered into the terminal airspace within +/- 30 seconds of their STA and 94% of flights were delivered within +/- 60 seconds. The meter fix delivery accuracy standard deviation was found to be between 36 and 55 seconds across all arrival procedures. The data also showed when schedule disruptions were excluded, the percentage of aircraft delivered within +/- 30 seconds was between 85 and 90% across the various arrival procedures at the meter fix. This paper illustrates the ability to meet new delivery accuracy requirements in an operational-like environment using operational systems and NATCA controller participants, while also including common events that might cause disruptions to the schedule and overall system.

Air Traffic Scheduling↗

Tensor-Product Preconditioners for Higher-Order Space-Time Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

space-time discontinuous-Galerkin spectral-element discretization is presented for direct numerical simulation of the compressible Navier-Stokes equat ions. An efficient solution technique based on a matrix-free Newton-Krylov method is developed in order to overcome the stiffness associated with high solution order. The use of tensor-product basis functions is key to maintaining efficiency at high order. Efficient preconditioning methods are presented which can take advantage of the tensor-product formulation. A diagonalized Alternating-Direction-Implicit (ADI) scheme is extended to the space-time discontinuous Galerkin discretization. A new preconditioner for the compressible Euler/Navier-Stokes equations based on the fast-diagonalization method is also presented. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of these preconditioners for the direct numerical simulation of subsonic turbulent flows.

Diosady, Laslo T.↗

Considerations When Building Thermal Models that Require Conversion Between Formats

At times, it is inevitable to require conversion of thermal models from one software format to another. This most often occurs for missions with international partners where not all parties utilize the same software packages for thermal analysis. Mandating a single tool for all parties is one possible solution, but this approach can introduce problems if significant effort is required to overcome inexperience with the designated tool and may result in difficulty meeting analysis schedule requirements. Alternatively, allowing all parties to use their own familiar tools minimizes the impact to analysis schedules but does introduce the need to convert the models later to a common format for analysis at a higher level of assembly. External conversion tools and formats have been developed through the years to aid in this process, but have had limited success in fully converting models seamlessly. Having a basic familiarity with tool capabilities on both sides of the conversion process allows for models to be built in a manner to better facilitate conversion by avoiding features and capabilities which are unsupported by the destination tool or for which no workarounds exist. Also, the effort to convert a model is often neglected when developing the schedules for analysis at the higher assembly levels; delivery of models preconditioned for convertibility minimizes the schedule risk. This paper seeks to provide some guidance on modeling techniques to avoid when developing Geometrical Math Models (GMM) and Thermal Math Models (TMM) when conversion is required. The recommendations are based on GMM conversion experiences between TSS/ThermalDesktop/ESARAD and TMM conversions between SINDA-FLUINT/ESATAN.

Modeling↗

Space Architecture for MoonVillage

The concept of a multinational MoonVillage, as proposed by Jan Wörner of ESA, is analyzed with respect to diverse factors affecting its implementation feasibility: potential activities and scale as a function of location, technology, and purpose; potential participants and their roles; business models for growth and sustainability as compared to the ISS; and implications for the field of space architecture. Environmental and operations constraints that govern all types of MoonVillage are detailed. Findings include: 1) while technically feasible, a MoonVillage would be more distributed and complex a project than the ISS; 2) significant and distinctive opportunities exist for willing participants, at all evolutionary scales and degrees of commercialization; 3) the mixed-use space business park model is essential for growth and permanence; 4) growth depends on exporting lunar material products, and the rate and extent of growth depends on export customers including terrestrial industries; 5) industrial-scale operations are a precondition for lunar urbanism, which goal in turn dramatically drives technology requirements; but 6) industrial viability cannot be discerned until significant in situ operations occur; and therefore 7) government investment in lunar surface operations is a strictly enabling step. Because of the resources it could apply, the U.S. government holds the greatest leverage on growth, no matter who founds a MoonVillage. The interplanetary business to be built may be cause for engagement.

Sherwood, Bent↗

BioSentinel: Optimizing Growth Conditions for Improved Yeast Cell Viability After Long-Term Desiccation

NASA's BioSentinel mission is one of thirteen secondary payloads to be deployed on the Space Launch System Exploration Mission-1 (SLS EM-1). The BioSentinel nanosatellite will be sent into a heliocentric orbit beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), to study the effects of deep space radiation on the budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Ionizing radiation encountered in deep space can create damaging lesions in DNA, including double strand breaks (DSBs). Budding yeast is suitable as a biological model to study these effects, as it is eukaryotic, and can be desiccated for prolonged periods while retaining viability, thus serving as a robust analog for human cells. On the ground, yeast cells are grown in liquid medium, then loaded into the wells of microfluidic cards and air dried prior to integration into the payload. Once the spacecraft reaches its target heliocentric orbit, a mixture of growth medium and metabolic indicator dye will be pumped into the microwells at specific time points to rehydrate the cells and allow them to grow. A 3-color LED detection system will measure changes in growth and metabolism resulting from ionizing radiation exposure. BioSentinel contains a wild type control strain and a rad51 mutant that is defective for DNA damage repair. In this study, we will determine the optimal amount of time to grow diploid yeast cells in liquid culture before they are desiccated for space flight. After an extended time in stationary phase, they become more tolerant to desiccation due to stress caused by nitrogen starvation. However, excessive exposure can lead to loss of viability and to a heterogeneous cell population due to sporulation. Since viability loss during desiccation poses a risk to mission success, a stress preconditioning process during initial growth may increase long-term cell viability. To determine the growth period that improves desiccation tolerance but allows for retention of uniform radiation sensitivity, we will grow both strains in liquid medium for a varying number of days (4 to 7), desiccate the cells, and then observe changes to cell viability and ionizing radiation sensitivity over time. Supported by the Space Life Sciences Training Program at NASA Ames Research Center.

Cui, Kaixin↗

The State of Remote Sensing Capabilities of Cascading Hazards over High Mountain Asia

Cascading hazard processes refer to a primary trigger such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, or snow melt, followed by a chain or web of consequences that can cause subsequent hazards influenced by a complex array of preconditions and vulnerabilities. These interact in multiple ways and can have tremendous impacts on populations proximate to or downstream of these initial triggers. High Mountain Asia (HMA) is extremely vulnerable to cascading hazard processes given the tectonic, geomorphologic, and climatic setting of the region, particularly as it relates to glacial lakes. Given the limitations of in situ surveys in steep and often inaccessible terrain, remote sensing data are a valuable resource for better understanding and quantifying these processes. The present work provides a survey of cascading hazard processes impacting HMA and how these can be characterized using remote sensing sources. We discuss how remote sensing products can be used to address these process chains, citing several examples of cascading hazard scenarios across HMA. This work also provides a perspective on the current gaps and challenges, community needs, and view forward towards improved characterization of evolving hazards and risk across HMA.

Glacial lake outburst floods↗

Surface Flow Visualization of the High-Lift Common Research Model

A 10% scale version of the High-Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL) was tested in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel (14x22) in support of the NASA Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) Project. The CRM-HL experiment included various configurations such as conventional and simple-hinged flaps, with and without engine nacelle/pylon, with and without nacelle chine, different Active Flow Control (AFC) methods (sweeping jets, alternating pulsed jets, and preconditioned boundary layer blowing), and their various parameters. This particular study is focused on the surface flow visualization of the conventional CRM-HL model at landing configuration. The conventional CRM-HL model with the single-slotted Fowler flap system serves as a baseline for the AFC-enabled simplified high-lift configuration as well as a high-lift technology development platform due to its publicly open geometry. Surface flow visualizations were performed using fluorescent minitufts, which were found to be nonintrusive to the aerodynamic performance. Tuft flow visualizations are supplemented with the relevant pressure and force measurements in order to understand the flow characteristics developed on the conventional CRM- HL model. In addition, three dimensional, unsteady, compressible Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations were performed for selective cases. The surface streamlines and transverse velocity fluctuations obtained by the CFD simulations are qualitatively compared to the tuft direction and tuft unsteadiness, respectively. Force measurements of the CRM-HL model show performance degradation at higher angles of attack. Surface flow visualizations revealed the performance loss due to the nacelle/pylon wake that grows with angle of attack and eventually promotes flow separation over the inboard wing. This performance loss was successfully recovered by placing a chine on the engine nacelle.

Koklu, Mehti↗

Global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) Version 2: New Activities and Future Plans

A remote sensing-based system has been developed to characterize the potential for rainfall-triggered landslides across the globe in near real-time. The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model uses a decision tree framework to combine a static susceptibility map derived from information on slope, rock characteristics, forest loss, distance to fault zones and distance to road networks with satellite precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Since 2016, the LHASA model has been providing near real-time and retrospective estimates of potential landslide activity. Results of this work are available at https://landslides.nasa.gov. In order to advance LHASA’s capabilities to characterize landslide hazards and impacts dynamically, we have implemented a new approach that leverages machine learning, new parameters, and new inventories. LHASA 2.0 uses the XGBoost machine learning model to bring in dynamic variables as well as additional static variables to better represent landslide hazard globally. Global rainfall forecasts are also being evaluated to provide a 1-3 day forecast of potential landslide activity. Additional factors such as recent seismicity and burned areas are also being considered to represent the preconditioning or changing interactions with subsequent rainfall over affected areas. A series of parameters are being tested within this structure using NASA’s Global Landslide Catalog as well as many other event-based and multi-temporal inventories mapped by the project team or provided by project partners. In addition to estimates of landslide hazard, LHASA Version 2 will incorporate dynamic estimates of exposure including population, roads and infrastructure to highlight the potential impacts that rainfall-triggered landslides. The ultimate goal of LHASA Version 2.0 is to approximate the relative probabilities of landslide hazard and exposure across different space and time scales to inform hazard assessment retrospectively over the past 20 years, in near real-time, and in the future. In addition to the hazard. This presentation will outline the new activities for LHASA Version 2.0 and present some next steps for this system.

Dalia Kirschbaum↗

Demonstrating Early-Adopter Benefits of Submitting Multiple Trajectory Options for Airlines

A workshop at NASA Ames Research Center was held with airline industry stakeholders to demonstrate the impact of using Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) during a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) for severe weather operations. The demonstration was conducted using apart-task Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) simulation of the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept, which is an air traffic management method that uses CTOP to deliver preconditioned traffic to the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) region. The demonstration addressed the following research objectives: first, determine who receives a greater benefit, TOS-participating or TOS-excluded airlines? Second, determine which method of trajectory selection yields a better solution, human/manual selection or automation? Finally, obtain feedback from stakeholders on their impression of the concept and recommendations for future work. The results showed that TOS-participating airlines received greater benefit in terms of total ground delay, ground delay savings, number of reroute options, and additional flight time, compared to TOS-excluded airlines. However, this result was dependent on the situational context, such as the number and location of flights. We found that all airlines benefitted when just a subset of airlines submitted TOS, but the greatest benefit went to the TOS-participating airlines. These benefits to the TOS-participating airlines were diminished as the number of TOS-participants in the system increased. Therefore, there was an “early-adopter” effect that suggested airlines could benefit by becoming the first to equip TOS without causing unfair disadvantages to those who do not equip TOS. In addition, we found that manual selection of trajectory options performed similarly to CTOP, but the CTOP solution was more efficient in terms of number of reroutes, additional flight time, and average ground delay for rerouted flights. Feedback from the stakeholders was solicited, and their overall impressions of the demonstrations were positive. They remarked that CTOP could do a better job than current day solutions, and they thought airlines could benefit from continuing to develop TOS capabilities.

Integrated Demand Management↗

Demonstrating the Early Adopter Benefits of Submitting Multiple Trajectory Options for Airlines

Integrated Demand Management (IDM), is a NASA developed Traffic Flow Management (TFM) concept that uses Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to precondition traffic flows into the Time Based Flow Management (TBFM) region, helping traffic planners manage imbalances between demand and capacity in the National Airspace (NAS). A workshop held at NASA was conducted to demonstrate how individual airlines can be impacted by using Trajectory Options Sets (TOS) during IDM operations. A primary concern that was specifically addressed in a part-task Human-in-the-Loop simulation was who received the greater benefit, TOS participating or non-TOS participating airlines? The results showed that TOS participating airlines received greater benefit in terms of ground delay, number of reroute options, and additional flight time, than non-TOS participating airlines. However, this result was dependent on the number and location of flights. Therefore, it was advantageous for airlines to equip TOS. In addition, we found that non-TOS participating airlines also benefitted from other airlines participating in TOS, because the total system-wide ground delay was reduced as more TOS were introduced into the system. The evidence suggests that the benefits were distributed fairly, and there were no unfair disadvantages for airlines who did not equip TOS.

Integrated Demand Management↗

Damage Accelerates Ice Shelf Instability and Mass Loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment

Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.

glaciology↗

Southern Ocean Heat Storage, Reemergence, and Winter Sea Ice Decline Induced by Summertime Winds

The observational record shows a substantial 40-yr upward trend in summertime westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, as characterized by the southern annular mode (SAM) index. Enhanced summertime westerly winds have been linked to cold summertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Previous studies have suggested that Ekman transport or upwelling is responsible for this seasonal cooling. Here, another process is presented in which enhanced vertical mixing, driven by summertime wind anomalies, moves heat downward, cooling the sea surface and simultaneously warming the subsurface waters. The anomalously cold SSTs draw heat from the atmosphere into the ocean, leading to increased depth-integrated ocean heat content. The subsurface heat is returned to the surface mixed layer during the autumn and winter as the mixed layer deepens, leading to anomalously warm SSTs and potentially reducing sea ice cover. Observational analyses and numerical experiments support our proposed mechanism, showing that enhanced vertical mixing produces subsurface warming and cools the surface mixed layer. Nevertheless, the dominant driver of surface cooling remains uncertain; the relative importance of advective and mixing contributions to the surface cooling is model dependent. Modeling results suggest that sea ice volume is more sensitive to summertime winds than sea ice extent, implying that enhanced summertime westerly winds may lead to thinner sea ice in the following winter, if not lesser ice extent. Thus, strong summertime winds could precondition the sea ice cover for a rapid retreat in the following melt season.

Southern Ocean↗

Towards Real-time Global Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Hazard

As the risk of wildfires increases worldwide, burned steeplands are vulnerable to the secondary hazard of widespread sediment mobilization through debris flows. Following an initial burn, sediment and soil previously restrained by vegetation are no longer consolidated, allowing for easy mobilization into channels and along steep hillslopes through runoff. Sufficiently powerful rainfall incorporates entrained material into turbulent flows and serves as the primary trigger for debris flow initiation. There is thus an ongoing need to establish the relationship between rainfall and debris flow initiation based on a variety of spatiotemporal preconditions. Previous work establishes regional and local thresholds to constrain the effect of rainfall in recently burned areas, but no empirical or numerical solution has worldwide application. Building from regionally-based efforts in the U.S., this work considers how remote sensing data can be applied to better approximate the post-fire debris flow hazards worldwide using freely available global datasets and software. Our work assesses the utility of remote sensing resources for analyzing burn characteristics, topography, rainfall intensity/duration, and, thus, debris flow initiation. Early results show that global observations are sufficient to delineate background rainfall rates from storms likely to cause debris flows across a variety of burn severity and topographic conditions. However, the dearth of publicly-available post-fire debris flow inventories globally limit the ability to test how the model framework performs within different climatologic and morphologic areas. This work will present preliminary analysis over the Western United States and demonstrate the feasibility of a global, near-real time model to provide situational awareness of potential hazards within recently burned areas worldwide. Future work will also consider how global or regional precipitation forecasts may increase the lead time for improved early warning of these hazards.

Elijah Orland↗

Understanding and Verifying Neural Networks

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have gained immense popularity in recent times and have widespread use in applications such as image classification, sentiment analysis, speech recognition and also in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. However, they suffer limitations such as lack of explainability and robustness which raise safety and security concerns in their usage. Further, the complex structure and large input spaces of DNNs act as an impediment to thorough verification and testing. The SafeDNN project at the Robust Software Engineering (RSE) group at NASA aims at exploring techniques to ensure that systems that use deep neural networks are safe, robust and interpretable. In this talk, I will be presenting our technique Prophecy that automatically infers formal properties of deep neural network models. The tool extracts patterns based on neuron activations as preconditions that imply certain desirable output properties of the model. I would be highlighting case studies that use Prophecy in obtaining explanations for network decisions, understanding correct and incorrect behavior, providing formal guarantees wrt safety and robustness, and debugging neural network models. We have applied the tool on image classification networks, neural network controllers providing turn advisories in unmanned aircrafts, regression models used for autonomous center-line tracking in aircrafts and neural network object detectors

Deep Neural Networks↗

Test Methods and Analysis of Anomalous Charging Currents in Polymer Tantalum Capacitors

Due to dry environments, anomalous charging currents (ACC) in polymer tantalum capacitors (PTC) could cause malfunctions or failures in space systems. Currently, there is no standard metric to assess this effect, and factors affecting ACC are not well understood. This paper discusses the benefits and drawbacks of different methods used to reveal ACC including constant voltage ramp and constant current stress and suggest a power surge testing (PST) as a procedure for screening and qualification of PTCs for space applications. The suggested test is similar to the surge current testing that is currently used for MnO2 tantalum capacitors but assures dissipation of high power in the part throughout testing. Using various types of capacitors, the reproducibility of test results for different manufacturing lots of PTCs and from sample to sample within a lot were estimated. The impact of moisture content, test temperature, stress voltages, and preconditioning were assessed. Thermal effects associated with ACC and the possibility of catastrophic failures were studied experimentally using an IR camera and calculated at adiabatic heating conditions. Possible mechanisms of the phenomenon are discussed and recommendations for testing to avoid failures related to ACC are suggested.

Alexander A.Teverovsky↗

Power Surge Testing for Polymer Tantalum Capacitors

Due to dry environments, anomalous charging currents (ACC) in polymer tantalum capacitors (PTC) might cause malfunctions and failures in space systems. Currently, there is no standard metrics to assess this effect and factors affecting ACC are not well understood. This paper discusses benefits and drawbacks of different methods used to reveal ACC and suggest a power surge testing (PST) as a procedure for screening and qualification of PTCs. The suggested test is similar to the surge current testing that is currently used for MnO2 tantalum capacitors but assures dissipation of high power in the part during the whole period of testing. Using various types of capacitors, the reproducibility of test results for different lots of PTCs and from sample to sample in a lot were estimated. The impact of moisture content, test temperature, stress voltages, and preconditioning is assessed. Thermal effects associated with ACC and the possibility of catastrophic failures were studied experimentally using an IR camera and calculated at adiabatic heating conditions. Possible mechanisms of the phenomenon are discussed and recommendations for testing to avoid failures related to ACC are suggested.

Alexander A Teverovsky↗