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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty analysis of steady-state measurements with a hot-filament type calorimetric emissometer

Calorimetric emissometers measure total hemispherical emissivity by measuring the heat transferred from a heated sample to its surroundings under a vacuum. The accuracy of emissometers standardized by the ASTM C835-06 are well understood. This work uses the Guide to the Evaluation of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) for the propagation uncertainties for an ASTM compliant emissometer. The GUM method was able to develop a measurement model and expressions to determine the uncertainty for other emissometers of this type. Data on ‘as-received’ Hastelloy X was used to develop a detailed uncertainty analysis of the emissivity measurement. Data on ‘as-received’ SS 347 and sandblasted A387 Gr. 91 and previous data by the group on A508/A533B were used to determine uncertainty over the ranges 0.16 to 0.81. For all samples, relative uncertainties in emissivities varied from 0.77% to 2.5% when using a fluxgate magnetometer sensor (FMS) to measure the DC heating current. Data on Hastelloy X using a Hall-effect sensor for DC current and low alloy steel showed the DC current and voltage across the test section to be dominate sources of uncertainty. When these sources were reduced, the specimen temperature and the surface area of the test sections were main sources of uncertainty in the emissivity, especially at higher temperatures. As thermal expansion of the surface was considered in the calculations, correlation between specimen temperature and surface area was examined. It was found to be a small contribution to emissivity's uncertainty despite the differences in linear CTE and its uncertainty for the materials analyzed in this study. For low temperatures, the chamber temperature can be a significant source of uncertainty if not sufficiently cooled. The GUM was also briefly compared to uncertainty from the 2nd and 3rd expansions of the Taylor series. We found that the results were the same when rounding to two significant figures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Magnetic Navigation for GPS-Denied Airborne Applications

Most current flight systems are dependent on GPS for navigation. Recently, however, navigation in GPS-denied environments has become an area of intensive research. Additional navigation sensor data can be obtained from visual observations (stars or terrain), inertial measurement units, radar, measurements of the local magnetic field, or perhaps even gravity. Absolute and relative positioning via magnetic field measurements have been shown to be viable in many applications including ground navigation, low altitude aircraft flight, and spaceflight. There is greater variability in the magnetic field over shorter distances when flying at low altitude and in ground applications, leading to more accurate positioning. However, ground-based magnetic navigation is often heavily influenced by man-made structures, especially in urban environments. This is not the case for airborne magnetic navigation since the influence of buildings, roads, etc. is negligible for typical aircraft altitudes. For absolute magnetic navigation, the positioning accuracy decreases as altitude increases for a given vehicle velocity, but the observed time variability in the field can be reclaimed by traveling faster through the field. Thus, navigation accuracy becomes a balance of speed and altitude since the higher altitude can be counterbalanced by higher velocity. To understand these effects quantitatively, we explored various techniques to aid a simulated inertial measurement unit with magnetic information. Using a technique known as two-dimensional magnetic map matching, we simulated the performance of airborne magnetic navigation at fixed speed while varying the altitude, flight direction, magnetometer data collection time, reference magnetic map bias error, and type of trajectory (over land or over ocean).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Illuminating the Night: A Survey of Super-Resolution Methods for Nighttime Light Images

Nighttime Light (NTL) images provide critical insights into urbanization, disaster response, and energy consumption. The VIIRS Day/Night Band (DNB) sensor offers high-quality NTL imagery with daily revisit rates, but the available spatial resolution hinders fine-grained accurate analysis. Super-resolution techniques aim to increase the resolution of NTL images, enabling more detailed assessments of infrastructure, light pollution, economic activity, and power outages. However, existing state-of-the-art super-resolution methods designed for natural images struggle with the unique characteristics of NTL data. This work provides a comprehensive review of super-resolution methods across multiple image modalities, evaluates their effectiveness on VIIRS DNB data, and proposes a multi-modal super-resolution approach tailored to NTL imagery. The proposed approach integrates VIIRS DNB data with road networks and land use information to improve reconstruction accuracy and spatial detail. Code is available for this project at https://code.ornl.gov/viirs-sr/sr-demos.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Anomaly Detection with Graph Networks for Data Quality Monitoring of the Hadron Calorimeter

The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment is a general-purpose detector for high-energy collision at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. It employs an online data quality monitoring (DQM) system to promptly spot and diagnose particle data acquisition problems to avoid data quality loss. In this study, we present a semi-supervised spatio-temporal anomaly detection (AD) monitoring system for the physics particle reading channels of the Hadron Calorimeter (HCAL) of the CMS using three-dimensional digi-occupancy map data of the DQM. We propose the GraphSTAD system, which employs convolutional and graph neural networks to learn local spatial characteristics induced by particles traversing the detector and the global behavior owing to shared backend circuit connections and housing boxes of the channels, respectively. Recurrent neural networks capture the temporal evolution of the extracted spatial features. We validate the accuracy of the proposed AD system in capturing diverse channel fault types using the LHC collision data sets. The GraphSTAD system achieves production-level accuracy and is being integrated into the CMS core production system for real-time monitoring of the HCAL. We provide a quantitative performance comparison with alternative benchmark models to demonstrate the promising leverage of the presented system.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transducer Resolution Effect on Pressure Fluctuations Beneath Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layers

The size of a pressure transducer is known to affect the accuracy of measurements of wall-pressure fluctuations beneath a turbulent boundary layer because of spatial averaging over the sensing area of the transducer. In this paper, the effect of finite transducer size is investigated by applying spatial averaging or wavenumber filters to a database of hypersonic wall pressure generated from a direct numerical simulation (DNS) that simulates the turbulent portion of the boundary layer over a sharp 7° half-angle cone at nominally Mach 8. Here, a good comparison between the DNS and the experiment in the Sandia Hypersonic Wind Tunnel at Mach 8 is achieved after spatial averaging is applied to the DNS data over an area similar to the sensing area of the transducer. The study shows that a finite sensor size similar to that of the PCB132 transducer can cause significant attenuation in the root-mean-square and power spectral density (PSD) of wall-pressure fluctuations, and the attenuation effect is identical between cone and flat plate configurations at the same friction Reynolds number. The Corcos theory is found to successfully compensate for the attenuated high-frequency components of the wall-pressure PSD.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intelligent Electrochemical Sensors for Precise Identification of Volatile Organic Compounds Enabled by Neural Network Analysis

The volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in a wide spectrum of categories were identified as biomarkers in aquatic environments, playing an important role in marine and freshwater ecology and global atmospheric chemistry. VOCs released from biofuel have also attracted increasing attention. Although the importance has been recognized, the portable detection and analysis methods of VOC in aquatic systems have not yet been well developed and understood. Here, in this work, we innovatively proposed an intelligent electrochemical sensing approach to classify and quantify VOCs in solution. Utilizing the cyclic voltammetry (CV) method with an ionic liquid (IL)-based electrolyte, we analyzed 50 μL samples of various VOC analytes, including acetic acid (AC), acetone, dimethylformamide (DMF), dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), ethanol, formaldehyde, formic acid, methanol, methyl formate (MF), toluene, and a formaldehyde-methanol mixture, along with deionized water (DI water). The generated voltammograms were subsequently analyzed using our uniquely designed and optimized 1-D convolutional neural network (1D-CNN). This deep-learning algorithm achieved a 99.09% accuracy in VOC classification validated through fivefold cross-validation and demonstrated an impressive 94.4% test accuracy for methanol detection within a 10 μL error range. For quantification, the system accurately categorized methanol volumes ranging from 0 to 50 μL in 10 μL increments, achieving a 98.18% accuracy. A notable linear correlation (R2 = 95.56%) was found between max current density at the oxidation peak and methanol volume, with the limit of detection (LOD) at 9.3 μL. Such a sensing method exhibits potential for portability, high accuracy, and generalization in the classification and quantification, ultimately reshaping the realm of VOC analysis in solution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Accuracy Limitations of Quantifying Methane Emissions Using Other Test Method 33A

Researchers have utilized Other Test Method (OTM) 33A to quantify methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure. Historically, errors have been reported based on a population of measurements compared to known controlled releases of methane. These errors have been reported as 2σ errors of ±70%. However, little research has been performed on the minimum attainable uncertainty of any one measurement. We present two methods of uncertainty estimation. The first was the measurement uncertainty of the state-of-the-art equipment, which was determined to be ±3.8% of the estimate. This was determined from bootstrapped measurements compared to controlled releases. The second approach of uncertainty estimation was a modified Hollinger and Richardson (H&R) method which was developed for quantifying the uncertainty of eddy covariance measurements. Using a modified version of this method applied to OTM 33A measurements, it was determined that uncertainty of any given measurement was ±17%. Combining measurement uncertainty with that of stochasticity produced a total minimum uncertainty of 17.4%. Due to the current nature of stationary single-sensor measurements and the stochasticity of atmospheric data, such uncertainties will always be present. This is critical in understanding the transport of methane emissions and indirect measurements obtained from the natural gas industry.

Heltzel, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neuro-Spark: A Submicrosecond Spiking Neural Networks Architecture for In-Sensor Filtering

Neuro-Spark, which is a new neuromorphic architecture with a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) implementation for ultrafast spiking neural network (SNN) inference at the edge, facilitates smart-pixel in-sensor filtering for high-energy physics experiments at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Utilizing the evolutionary optimization for neuromorphic systems (EONS) training method, we generate compact SNN models with 91% signal efficiency, akin to convolutional neural networks but with half the parameters. However, deploying near the detector poses a challenge because the SNN must handle a sustained input data rate exceeding 1013 GB/s. To overcome this, we propose a novel hardware architecture that uses high-level synthesis to construct a tuned architecture for the EONS-trained SNN. In addition to the analysis and validation with an AMD Xilinx Artix-A7 FPGA, our solution consumes only ç24% of FPGA LUT and flipflops. We also introduce an innovative quantization method that reduces FPGA resource utilization by ç15% without compromising accuracy. Our FPGA implementation achieves computing latency of ç10 ns for smart-pixel application inference on an edge FPGA.

Miniskar, Narasinga Rao↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable multiplexed machine learning gas sensor chips for food classification

Multiplexed gas sensor arrays combined with machine learning have unlocked previously inaccessible applications for scent-based sensing. Current platforms are limited by overlapping sensing materials with similar compositions, leading to highly correlated responses, or multistep deposition processes that hinder scalability. In this work, we developed a 16-element monolithic chip with fully distinct sensing layers, enabling a truly heterogeneous array. The system consists of highly sensitive carbon nanotube field effect transistors that are functionalized through a single-step microdispensing method compatible with automated pipetting systems. The resulting chip produces characteristic signal patterns in response to object-specific scent profiles and, when combined with machine learning algorithms, can perform automated object identification. We demonstrate the classification of 16 different objects, including food spoilage and nut allergens, with a 92.6% overall prediction accuracy.

Bassil, Carla [University of California, Berkeley,↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of average leaf inclination angle quantified by indirect optical instruments in crop fields

Average leaf inclination angle ($\overline{θ}$ L ) is an important canopy structure variable that influences light regime, photosynthesis, and evapotranspiration of plants. $\overline{θ}$ L can be measured through direct methods (e.g., protractor), which are labor-intensive and time-consuming, or through indirect optical instruments, which are more efficient than the direct methods. However, uncertainties of different indirect optical instruments for quantifying $\overline{θ}$ L remain largely unquantified. In this study, we evaluated and compared the performances of three major indirect optical instruments: (1) LAI-2200, (2) 30°-tilted camera, and (3) digital hemispherical photography (DHP), in different crop fields over a growing season, benchmarked with direct measurements. LAI-2200 and 30°-tilted camera showed higher agreement with direct $\overline{θ}$ measurements (R 2 = 0.54, RMSE = 7.37°; R 2 = 0.58, RMSE = 8.08°) than DHP (R 2 = 0.14, RMSE = 13.96°). Different performances of indirect optical instruments could be attributed to the accuracy of gap fraction measurement and the performance of the $\overline{θ}$ L quantification algorithms. When using the LAI-2200 algorithm, larger gap fraction gradients over view zenith angles led to larger $\overline{θ}$ L values, and smaller gap fraction gradients led to smaller $\overline{θ}$ L values. Such error propagation was larger in sparse canopy than in dense canopy. The Wilson G function of the LAI-2200 algorithm performed better in estimating $\overline{θ}$ L than the G function based on the ellipsoidal LAD function used by the CAN_EYE algorithm. We also proposed a modification of the LAI-2200 algorithm, which further improved the performance of LAI-2200 and 30°-tilted cameras in estimating $\overline{θ}$ L . We envision that the low-cost 30°-tilted cameras provide a promising sensor solution to continuously monitor canopy structure for various ecosystems.

30°-tilted camera↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a high current density, high temperature superconducting cable for pulsed magnets

Abstract A low AC loss Rare Earth Barium Copper Oxide (REBCO) cable, based on the VIPER cable technology has been developed by Commonwealth Fusion Systems for use in high field, REBCO based tokamaks. The new cable is composed of partitioned and transposed copper ‘petals’ shaped to fit together in a circular pattern with each petal containing a REBCO tape stack and insulated from each other to reduce AC losses. A stainless steel jacket adds mechanical robustness—also serving as a vessel for solder impregnation—while a tube runs through the middle for cooling purposes. Additionally, fiber optic sensors are placed under the tape stacks for quench detection. To qualify this design, a series of experiments were conducted as part of the SPARC tokamak Central Solenoid Model Coil program—to retire the risks associated with full scale, fast ramping, high flux HTS Central Solenoid (CS) and Poloidal Field (PF) coils for tokamak fusion power plants and net energy demonstrators. These risk study and risk reduction experiments include (1) AC loss measurement and model validation in the range of ~5 T/s, (2) an IxB electromagnetic loading of over 850 kN/m at the cable level and up to 300 kN/m at the stack level, (3) a transverse compression resilience of over 350 MPa, (4) manufacturability at tokamak relevant speeds and scales, (5) cable to cable joint performance, (6) fiber optic based quench detection speed, accuracy, and feasibility, and (7) overall winding pack integration and magnet assembly. The result is a cable technology, now referred to as PIT VIPER, with AC losses that measure fifteen times lower (at ~5 T/s) than its predecessor technology; a 2% or lower degradation of critical current (Ic) at high IxB electromagnetic loads; no detectable Ic degradation up to 570 MPa of transverse compression on the cable unit cell; end to end magnet manufacturing, consistently producing Ic values within 7% of the model prediction; cable to cable joint resistances at 20 K on the order of ~15 nΩ; and fast, functional quench detection capabilities that do not involve voltage taps. This cable technology will be tested comprehensively in a Central Solenoid Model Coil to prove its readiness for compact, high field tokamak operation.

Sanabria, Charlie (ORCID:0000000150175309)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real-time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI's Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz), Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection, Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate, Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time. In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real- time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI’s Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: 1. Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz) 2. Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection 3. Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate 4. Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion using physics-informed meltpool signatures and machine learning

In this work we accomplished the monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing process. This objective was realized by extracting physics-informed meltpool signatures from an in-situ dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer, and subsequently, analyzing these signatures via computationally tractable machine learning approaches. Porosity in LPBF occurs despite extensive optimization of processing conditions due to stochastic causes. Hence, it is essential to continually monitor the process with in-situ sensors for detecting and mitigating incipient pore formation. In this work a tall cuboid-shaped part (10 mm × 10 mm × 137 mm, material ATI 718Plus) was built with controlled porosity by varying laser power and scanning speed. This test caused various types of porosity, such as lack-of-fusion and keyhole formation, with varying degrees of severity in the part. The meltpool was continuously monitored using a dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer installed in the machine. Physically intuitive process signatures, such as meltpool length, temperature distribution, and ejecta (spatter) characteristics, were extracted from the meltpool images. Subsequently, relatively simple machine learning models, e.g., K-Nearest Neighbors, were trained to predict both the severity and type of porosity as a function of these physics-informed meltpool signatures. These models resulted in a prediction accuracy exceeding 95% (statistical F1-score). The same analysis was carried out with a complex, black-box deep learning convolutional neural network which directly used the meltpool images instead of physics-informed features. The convolutional neural network produced a comparable F1-score in the range of 89–97%. Finally, these results demonstrate that using pragmatic, physics-informed meltpool signatures within a simple machine learning model is as effective for flaw prediction in LPBF as using a complex and computationally demanding black-box deep learning model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Enabled Wearable Piezoelectric Acoustic Sensor for Real-Time Breast Abnormality Detection

In contemporary society, breast health has become a significant public health concern, particularly among women. According to statistics from the World Health Organization, both the incidence and mortality rates of breast tumors have steadily increased in recent years. Therefore, effective early-stage screening and postoperative monitoring are essential for maintaining breast health. However, conventional clinical diagnostic modalities are typically bulky, operationally complex, and unsuitable for continuous real-time monitoring, which limits their use in portable and everyday health management applications. To address these limitations, this study proposes a machine learning-integrated wearable piezoelectric sensing platform as an auxiliary tool for breast health assessment. The device consists of a PDMS matching layer embedded with flexible silver nanowires, a P(VDF-TrFE) piezoelectric layer, and a multi-channel low-noise signal acquisition circuit. It is capable of acquiring acoustic echo signals from tissue-mimicking environments and automatically evaluating signal validity using a convolutional neural network (CNN). By integrating piezoelectric sensing with deep learning-based signal analysis, the proposed system achieves a signal-to-noise ratio exceeding 70 dB and a real-time classification accuracy above 96% under controlled conditions. These results demonstrate that the platform provides a compact, portable, and intelligent approach for wearable sensing of mechanical heterogeneity and highlight its potential for future development in continuous biomedical monitoring technologies.

He, Shuaitong↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nominal and adversarial synthetic PMU data for standard IEEE test systems

GridSTAGE (Spatio-Temporal Adversarial scenario GEneration) is a framework for the simulation of adversarial scenarios and the generation of multivariate spatio-temporal data in cyber-physical systems. GridSTAGE is developed based on Matlab and leverages Power System Toolbox (PST) where the evolution of the power network is governed by nonlinear differential equations. Using GridSTAGE, one can create several event scenarios that correspond to several operating states of the power network by enabling or disabling any of the following: faults, AGC control, PSS control, exciter control, load changes, generation changes, and different types of cyber-attacks. Standard IEEE bus system data is used to define the power system environment. GridSTAGE emulates the data from PMU and SCADA sensors. The rate of frequency and location of the sensors can be adjusted as well. Detailed instructions on generating data scenarios with different system topologies, attack characteristics, load characteristics, sensor configuration, control parameters are available in the Github repository - https://github.com/pnnl/GridSTAGE. There is no existing adversarial data-generation framework that can incorporate several attack characteristics and yield adversarial PMU data. The GridSTAGE framework currently supports simulation of False Data Injection attacks (such as a ramp, step, random, trapezoidal, multiplicative, replay, freezing) and Denial of Service attacks (such as time-delay, packet-loss) on PMU data. Furthermore, it supports generating spatio-temporal time-series data corresponding to several random load changes across the network or corresponding to several generation changes. A Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) based algorithm to detect and identify the false data attacks in real-time is proposed in https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9303022. Machine learning-based predictive models are developed to capture the dynamics of the underlying power system with a high level of accuracy under various operating conditions for IEEE 68 bus system. The corresponding machine learning models are available at https://github.com/pnnl/grid_prediction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗