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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Evolution of the Impact Evidence Library Methods – What We Learned

During fiscal years 2020-2022 NASA’s Human Research Program, Exploration Medical Capability Element has worked to source this evidence for the model. During the process several lessons learned have been identified and drive recommendations for future efforts. The ICL 1.0: Spaceflight Medical Operational expertise should be consulted regarding the addition of future conditions. A clinician experienced with the nuances of spaceflight is recommended to have a minimum of 20 hours per condition to adequately source the evidence. Condition definitions should be carefully crafted to maintain mutual exclusivity. Common side effects from medications, common and consequential incidental findings in laboratory studies, and consequential side effects of diagnostic and procedural capabilities should be considered for inclusion as unique conditions in future iterations of the ICL 1.0. Incidence: Spaceflight incidence, although based on small population sizes, is the gold standard. Terrestrial incidence should be applied cautiously. Probability of minor vs. severe cases of the condition: Data informing severity probability of the medical condition are nearly always terrestrial. Special attention should be paid to this metric as it drives outcomes in the model and terrestrial data often overestimate severity of expected cases in spaceflight. Condition duration: Three clinical phases currently exist in the model. They represent the time necessary for diagnosis, treatment/convalescence/recurrence, and the remaining duration of the mission after maximal recovery, respectively. Further subdivision of acute and convalescent treatment/recurrence is recommended. Probability of need for evacuation: Surrogates for “Return to Definitive Care” were chosen prior to data collection. In most cases these surrogates were “need for hospitalization” or “need for surgery.” For many conditions these may not be realistic drivers of “Return to Definitive Care” and should be re-examined. Probability of Crew Mortality: Terrestrial mortality data is difficult to apply to astronauts who, invariably, have less comorbidities than terrestrial subjects. It must be applied judiciously. The proportion of mission tasks impaired by the condition: “Task Impairment” was assigned to each condition prior to the condition duration data becoming available. Future efforts should assign Task Impairment as the final step in sourcing the evidence.

A.J. Kreykes↗

NASA NTRS2011

Multipoint Observations of Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Energetic Particle Events on Mars and Earth During November 2001

Multipoint spacecraft observations provide unique opportunities to constrain the propagation and evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) throughout the heliosphere. Using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data to study both ICME and solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Mars and OMNI and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data to study ICMEs and SEPs at Earth, we present a detailed study of three CMEs and flares in late November 2001. In this period, Mars trailed Earth by 56deg solar longitude so that the two planets occupied interplanetary magnetic field lines separated by only approx.25deg. We model the interplanetary propagation of CME events using the ENLIL version 2.6 3-D MHD code coupled with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge version 1.6 potential source surface model, using Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) images to determine CME input parameters. We find that multipoint observations are essential to constrain the simulations of ICME propagation, as two very different ICMEs may look very similar in only one observational location. The direction and width of the CME as parameters essential to a correct estimation of arrival time and amplitude of the ICME signal. We find that these are problematic to extract from the analysis of SOHO/LASCO images commonly used for input to ICME propagation models. We further confirm that MGS magnetometer and electron reflectometer data can be used to study not only ICME events but also SEP events at Mars, with good results providing a consistent picture of the events when combined with near-Earth data.

Falkenberg, T. V.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Real-time Identification and Control of Satellite Signal Impairments Solution and Application of the Stratonovich Equation Part 1. Theoretical Development

As satellite communications systems become both more complex and reliant with respect to their operating environment, it has become imperative to be able to identify, during real-time operation, the onset of one or more impairments to the quality of overall communications system integrity. One of the most important aspects to monitor of a satellite link operating within the Earth's atmosphere is the signal fading due to the occurrence of rain and/or phase scintillations. This, of course, must be done in the presence of the associated measurement uncertainty or potentially faulty measurement equipment such as in the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) experiment. In the present work, an approach originally suggested in 1991, and apparently still considered iconoclastic, will be significantly developed and applied to the satellite communications link on which the deleterious composite signal fade is the result of one or many component fade mechanisms. Through the measurement (with the attendant uncertainty or 'error' in the measurement) of such a composite fading satellite signal, it is desired to extract the level of each of the individual fading mechanisms so they can be appropriately mitigated before they impact the overall performance of the communications network. Rather than employing simple-minded deterministic filtering to the real-time fading, the present approach is built around all the models and/or descriptions used to describe the individual fade components, including their dynamic evolution. The latter is usually given by a first-order Langevin equation. This circumstance allows the description of the associated temporal transition probability densities of each of the component processes. By using this description, along with the real-time measurements of the composite fade (along with the measurement errors), one can obtain statistical estimates of the levels of each of the component fading mechanisms as well as their predicted values into the future. This is all accomplished by the use of the well-known Stratonovich integro-differential equation that results from the model of the measured signal fade that is also tailored to adaptively adjust the values of the parameters used in the statistical models of the individual fade mechanisms. Three examples of increasing complexity are addressed and solved for the iterative determination of fade component levels from the measured composite signal fade in the presence of measurement error and, in the last case, with uncertainty in the model parameters.

Countermeasure↗

NASA NTRS2013

Azimuthal spoke propagation in Hall Effect Thrusters

Spokes are azimuthally propagating perturbations in the plasma discharge of Hall Effect Thrusters (HETs) that travel in the E × B direction and have been observed in many different systems. The propagation of azimuthal spokes are investigated in a 6 kW HET known as the H6 using ultra-fast imaging and azimuthally spaced probes. A spoke surface is a 2-D plot of azimuthal light intensity evolution over time calculated from 87,500 frames/s videos. The spoke velocity has been determined using three methods with similar results: manual fitting of diagonal lines on the spoke surface, linear cross-correlation between azimuthal locations and an approximated dispersion relation. The spoke velocity for three discharge voltages (300, 400 and 450 V) and three anode mass flow rates (14.7, 19.5 and 25.2 mg/s) yielded spoke velocities between 1500 and 2200 m/s across a range of normalized magnetic field settings. The spoke velocity was inversely dependent on magnetic field strength for low B-field settings and asymptoted at B-field higher values. The velocities and frequencies are compared to standard drifts and plasma waves such as E × B drift, electrostatic ion cyclotron, magnetosonic and various drift waves. The empirically approximated dispersion relation yielded a characteristic velocity that matched the ion acoustic speed for 5 eV electrons that exist in the near-anode and near-field plume regions of the discharge channel based on internal measurements. Thruster performance has been linked to operating mode where thrust-to-power is maximized when azimuthal spokes are present so investigating the underlying mechanism of spokes will benefit thruster operation.

Polk, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Azimuthal Spoke Propagation in Hall Effect Thrusters

Spokes are azimuthally propagating perturbations in the plasma discharge of Hall Effect Thrusters (HETs) that travel in the E x B direction and have been observed in many different systems. The propagation of azimuthal spokes are investigated in a 6 kW HET known as the H6 using ultra-fast imaging and azimuthally spaced probes. A spoke surface is a 2-D plot of azimuthal light intensity evolution over time calculated from 87,500 frames/s videos. The spoke velocity has been determined using three methods with similar results: manual fitting of diagonal lines on the spoke surface, linear cross-correlation between azimuthal locations and an approximated dispersion relation. The spoke velocity for three discharge voltages (300, 400 and 450 V) and three anode mass flow rates (14.7, 19.5 and 25.2 mg/s) yielded spoke velocities between 1500 and 2200 m/s across a range of normalized magnetic field settings. The spoke velocity was inversely dependent on magnetic field strength for low B-field settings and asymptoted at B-field higher values. The velocities and frequencies are compared to standard drifts and plasma waves such as E x B drift, electrostatic ion cyclotron, magnetosonic and various drift waves. The empirically approximated dispersion relation yielded a characteristic velocity that matched the ion acoustic speed for 5 eV electrons that exist in the near-anode and near-field plume regions of the discharge channel based on internal measurements. Thruster performance has been linked to operating mode where thrust-to-power is maximized when azimuthal spokes are present so investigating the underlying mechanism of spokes will benefit thruster operation.

Cylindrical Hall Thruster (CHT)↗

NASA NTRS2009

Design Evolution and Verification of the A-3 Chemical Steam Generator

Following is an overview of the Chemical Steam Generator system selected to provide vacuum conditions for a new altitude test facility, the A-3 Test Stand at Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Bay St. Louis, MS. A-3 will serve as NASA s primary facility for altitude testing of the J-2X rocket engine, to be used as the primary propulsion device for the upper stages of the Ares launch vehicles. The Chemical Steam Generators (CSGs) will produce vacuum conditions in the test cell through the production and subsequent supersonic ejection of steam into a diffuser downstream of the J-2X engine nozzle exit. The Chemical Steam Generators chosen have a rich heritage of operation at rocket engine altitude test facilities since the days of the Apollo program and are still in use at NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) in New Mexico. The generators at WSTF have been modified to a degree, but are still very close to the heritage design. The intent for the A-3 implementation is to maintain this heritage design as much as possible, making minimal updates only where necessary to substitute for obsolete parts and to increase reliability. Reliability improvements are especially desired because the proposed system will require 27 generators, which is nine times the largest system installed in the 1960s. Improvements were suggested by the original design firm, Reaction Motors, by NASA SSC and NASA WSTF engineers, and by the A-3 test stand design contractor, Jacobs Technology, Inc. (JTI). This paper describes the range of improvements made to the design to date, starting with the heritage generator and the minor modifications made over time at WSTF, to the modernized configuration which will be used at A-3. The paper will discuss NASA s investment in modifications to SSC s E-2 test facility fire a full-scale Chemical Steam Generator in advance of the larger steam system installation at A-3. Risk mitigation testing will be performed in early 2009 at this test facility to verify that the CSGs operate as expected. The generator which will undergo this testing is of the most recent A-3 configuration, and will be instrumented far in excess of what is normally required for operation. The extra data will allow for easier troubleshooting and more complete knowledge of expected generator performance. In addition, the early testing will give SSC personnel experience in operating the CSG systems, which will expedite the process of installation and activation at A-3. Each Chemical Steam Generator is supported by a complement of valves, instruments, and flow control devices, with the entire assembly called a "module." The generators will be installed in groups of three, historically called "units". A module is so called because of its modular ability to be replaced or serviced without disturbing the other two modules installed on the same unit. A module is pictured in Figure 1, shown with its generator secured by white bands in its shipping (vs. installed) configuration. The heritage system at WSTF is composed of a single unit (three generator modules), pictured in Figure 2 as it was installed in 1965. In contrast, A-3 will have nine units operating in parallel to achieve vacuum conditions appropriate for testing the J-2X engine. Each of the combustors operates in two modes and achieves the so-called "full-steam" mode after all three of its stages ignite. Ignition of the first stage is achieved by exciting a spark plug; the second stage and main stage are lit by the flame front of the previous stage. The main stage burns approximately 97% of the total propellant flow and uses the heat energy to vaporize water into superheated steam. While the main stage remains unlit, the combustor is in so-called "idle" mode. In the WSTF system, this idle mode is not optimized for water usage, and does not need to be, as the water is pumped from a large reservoir. The water supply at A-3 will be contained in tanks with finite volume, so water optimization is preferred for the modnized configuration. Multiple solutions for this issue have been proposed, with the leading concept being a change to the operational definition of "idle mode," with the generator running in a lower heat flux condition.

Kirchner, Casey K.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The application of artificial intelligence to astronomical scheduling problems

Efficient utilization of expensive space- and ground-based observatories is an important goal for the astronomical community; the cost of modern observing facilities is enormous, and the available observing time is much less than the demand from astronomers around the world. The complexity and variety of scheduling constraints and goals has led several groups to investigate how artificial intelligence (AI) techniques might help solve these kinds of problems. The earliest and most successful of these projects was started at Space Telescope Science Institute in 1987 and has led to the development of the Spike scheduling system to support the scheduling of Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The aim of Spike at STScI is to allocate observations to timescales of days to a week observing all scheduling constraints and maximizing preferences that help ensure that observations are made at optimal times. Spike has been in use operationally for HST since shortly after the observatory was launched in Apr. 1990. Although developed specifically for HST scheduling, Spike was carefully designed to provide a general framework for similar (activity-based) scheduling problems. In particular, the tasks to be scheduled are defined in the system in general terms, and no assumptions about the scheduling timescale are built in. The mechanisms for describing, combining, and propagating temporal and other constraints and preferences are quite general. The success of this approach has been demonstrated by the application of Spike to the scheduling of other satellite observatories: changes to the system are required only in the specific constraints that apply, and not in the framework itself. In particular, the Spike framework is sufficiently flexible to handle both long-term and short-term scheduling, on timescales of years down to minutes or less. This talk will discuss recent progress made in scheduling search techniques, the lessons learned from early HST operations, the application of Spike to other problem domains, and plans for the future evolution of the system.

Johnston, Mark D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Monitoring System for Storm Readiness and Recovery of Test Facilities: Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Approach

Severe weather events are likely occurrences on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It is important to rapidly diagnose and mitigate the effects of storms on Stennis Space Center's rocket engine test complex to avoid delays to critical test article programs, reduce costs, and maintain safety. An Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) approach and technologies are employed to integrate environmental (weather) monitoring, structural modeling, and the suite of available facility instrumentation to provide information for readiness before storms, rapid initial damage assessment to guide mitigation planning, and then support on-going assurance as repairs are effected and finally support recertification. The system is denominated Katrina Storm Monitoring System (KStorMS). Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) describes a comprehensive set of capabilities that provide insight into the behavior the health of a system. Knowing the status of a system allows decision makers to effectively plan and execute their mission. For example, early insight into component degradation and impending failures provides more time to develop work around strategies and more effectively plan for maintenance. Failures of system elements generally occur over time. Information extracted from sensor data, combined with system-wide knowledge bases and methods for information extraction and fusion, inference, and decision making, can be used to detect incipient failures. If failures do occur, it is critical to detect and isolate them, and suggest an appropriate course of action. ISHM enables determining the condition (health) of every element in a complex system-of-systems or SoS (detect anomalies, diagnose causes, predict future anomalies), and provide data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) to control systems for safe and effective operation. ISHM capability is achieved by using a wide range of technologies that enable anomaly detection, diagnostics, prognostics, and advise for control: (1) anomaly detection algorithms and strategies, (2) fusion of DIaK for anomaly detection (model-based, numerical, statistical, empirical, expert-based, qualitative, etc.), (3) diagnostics/prognostics strategies and methods, (4) user interface, (5) advanced control strategies, (6) integration architectures/frameworks, (7) embedding of intelligence. Many of these technologies are mature, and they are being used in the KStorMS. The paper will describe the design, implementation, and operation of the KStorMS; and discuss further evolution to support other needs such as condition-based maintenance (CBM).

Figueroa, Fernando↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Crew Performance Support System to Aid in Anomaly Resolution: Concept of Operations

As missions progress into deep space, communication delays and disruptions will disenable the crew’s reliance on Earth experts. There are also limitations in the amount of data that can be downlinked to the ground. It is prudent to assume that critical, complex vehicle or habitat sub-systems will malfunction at a time when a lunar or Mars’ crew cannot rely on the Earth-Support team to detect, diagnose and resolve the problem and it is impractical to expect a small crew to step-in with the same level of expertise as 50+ authorities. The crew will need novel processes and advanced technological support to independently identify and resolve safety- and time-critical anomalies. That a self-reliant crew is unable to respond appropriately to time-critical anomalies is a significant risk to crew safety and mission success. This risk is driven by several factors; novel and unanticipated anomalies would not have been trained pre-flight, the crew could forget their pre-flight training or spaceflight stressors could impair the crew’s problem-solving ability. At last year’s IWS, Beard reported that a single spaceflight stressor (elevated CO2) could undermine the crew’s ability to independently respond to emergencies. Concept of Operations (ConOps) provide a common view of future system functions to all stakeholders. For the current project, a ConOps was developed that describes the operational processes, practices and capabilities needed by a crew of astronauts on deep space missions to autonomously respond to anticipated and unanticipated anomalies. It is crucial to recognize that, as of August 2018 existing technologies are unable to effectively support crew anomaly response to unanticipated events. “Intelligent technology” has not reached a maturity level that permits generalizing a solution to novel situations. For example, to train intelligent technology requires volumes of data that do not exist. The complexities involved in a manned mission to Mars cannot be compared to sending rovers to Mars using scripted software. This ConOps proposes a Crew Performance Support System (CPSS) that will push NASA and its industry partners toward what will be required for a safe and successful manned mission to Mars. Anomaly resolution during a deep space mission will take place within a dynamic, or changing, context. The figure to the left shows five broad contextual variables: the organizational culture, mission context, system characteristics, team characteristics and individual characteristics. The yellow arrow indicates that spaceflight and task-related stressors can affect system, team and individual crewmember characteristics and therefore anomaly response potential. The figure depicts a protective umbrella of Human-System Integration (HSI) principles that should be instituted during CPSS development including a balanced workload, shared situation awareness and building an appropriate level of trust in the automation. The figure also depicts two interrelated and cooperative components, an HSI Data System and other Enabling Capabilities will be required to support crew anomaly response and Earth-Support situation awareness. As we journey from ISS to Gateway to Mars, multiple, simultaneous and integrated research and development efforts (i.e., support systems co-evolution) must be implemented to meet the problem-solving challenges a self-reliant crew will face on a Mars’ mission. The crossovers between the capabilities are just as important as the discrete capabilities themselves. As the capabilities mature, the lines between the support subdomains will blur and an integrated system will emerge. The ConOps summarizes current knowledge about how highly trained people solve anomalies in safety- and time-critical situations, describes a group of capabilities that could help to reduce the extant risk and documents requirements levied on additional systems that provides critical inputs to the CPSS. Scenarios are used to promote a shared understanding of processes, practices and technological goals needed for safe and productive manned missions beyond LEO.

HSIA risk↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Search & Rescue Applications of Lunar GNSS

Accurate lunar navigation and timing knowledge provides for the development of safety-critical services in the cislunar and lunar surface domain. Currently under development, the Goddard Space Flight Center’s (GSFC) Search and Rescue Mission Office is investigating and integrating search and rescue (SAR) capability into planned and future lunar communication and navigation interfaces. Lunar Search and Rescue (LunaSAR) development has a stated end-goal for assured, reliable, and timely indication of distress events for a wide variety of lunar surface users, including government-sponsored, commercial, and international users. LunaSAR performance requirements are modelled after the current terrestrial Cospas-Sarsat distress notification system, leveraging an internationally robust global navigation satellite system (GNSS) ecosystem as a core element of survivor locating capability. This presentation will discuss NASA’s work to develop user-focused distress messaging capabilities including infusion of example sensor data for triggering of automated distress alerts coupled with location-tagging. Additionally, the presentation will examine overall message structures, rotating fields for use in bi-directional distress messaging, and specific use cases based on NASA’s lunar exploration and lunar communication relay architectures. Modelling and simulation of LunaSAR use by individual lunar explorers will be discussed, based on notional industry and government design reference missions and mission considerations. Results from GSFC-funded Internal Research and Development (IRAD) efforts will be detailed, including successful distress message formulation simulating the ingestion of example legacy space suit telemetry fields. Hardware-in-the-loop testing using high-reliability software defined radio (SDR) modules serve as an example of IRAD successes and the framework for technical requirements. Architectural development and technical evolution from 2020 to 2021 included alignment of LunaSAR distress waveforms with ongoing NASA LunaNet interoperability development, as well as engagement with NASA Lunar Spectrum authorities for allocation of UHF-band distress frequencies on the lunar surface. S-Band and UHF-band transmission characteristics will be detailed, along with band-specific applications of each emission type. Additionally, examples of ingestion and formatting of GNSS signals (using historical terrestrial National Marine Electronics Association-formatted GNSS data) will be detailed, underscoring lunar user needs for a common lunar GNSS receiver output message framework. Maturity and ability to support evolving lunar exploration goals has been demonstrated and will be detailed, with maturity gaps such as position, navigation, and timing (PNT) and lunar reference frames identified within the context of distress message generation. Provision of LunaSAR services for lunar surface users represents a new era of ensured safety for lunar explorers and builds off of forty years of the Cospas-Sarsat program, underscoring the importance of lunar GNSS for safety-critical applications and growing interest in safe, reliable lunar surface operations. Enabled by new GNSS systems being developed by government and industry partners, NASA will continue to evolve and integrate lunar GNSS types into distress message generation, with a focus on compact and efficient message transmission over various lunar communication links. When fielded, LunaSAR will be the first dedicated search and rescue notification system employed on another celestial body. Robust lunar navigation and timing services form the core of LunaSAR capabilities, allowing for system syncing with time-dominant sensors, and high-accuracy location of those in distress while engaged in lunar surface activities.

Search and Rescue↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Medlin, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

VentureStar(trademark) Reaping the Benefits of the X-33 Program

Major X-33 flight hardware has been delivered, and assembly of the vehicle is well underway in anticipation of its flight test program commencing in the summer of 1999. Attention has now turned to the operational VentureStar(trademark), the first single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) reusable launch vehicle. Activities are grouped under two broad categories: (1) vehicle development and (2) market/business planning, each of which is discussed. The mission concept is presented for direct payload delivery to the International Space Station and to low Earth orbit, as well as payload delivery with an upper stage to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) and other high energy orbits. System requirements include flight segment and ground segment. Vehicle system sizing and design status is provided including the application of X-33 traceability and lessons learned. Technology applications to the VentureStar(trademark) are described including the structure, propellant tanks, thermal protection system, aerodynamics, subsystems, payload bay and propulsion. Developing a market driven low cost launch services system for the 21 st Century requires traditional and non-traditional ways of being able to forecast the evolution of the potential market. The challenge is balancing both the technical and financial assumptions of the market. This involves the need to provide a capability to meet market segments that in some cases are very speculative, while at the same time providing the financial community with a credible revenue stream.

Sumrall, J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Plasmaspheric Density Troughs: Global IMAGE EUV Observations and Analysis via Global Core Plasma Modeling

To date, the IMAGE EUV camera has observed several plasmaspheric density trough features inside the plasmapause under a wide range of geomagnetic activity. From the perspective of EUV, a density trough feature appears as a channel of diminished pixel counts which spans a width of L-shell (DELTA L) and magnetic local time (MLT) inside the plasmapause. Plasmaspheric density troughs are found to be morphologically complex possessing considerable spatial and temporal variability. We present an analysis of the evolution of trough DELTA L and MLT extent as functions of associated D (sub ST) and K (sub p) history. Trough features range in size from 0.16 less than or equal to DELTA L less than or equal to 1.2 with azimuthal extent from 1500 less than or equal to MLT less than or equal to 1200. All cases of plasmaspheric density troughs studied to date appear to have evolved as a result of the inner edge of the afternoon/evening plasma drainage plume being wrapped around through the nightside plasmasphere. The structure of plasmaspheric density trough features is further probed by analyzing simulated EUV images produced by forward modeling artificially introduced regions of depleted density into both static and dynamic global core plasmaspheric models. Forward modeling suggests that (1) L-shell refilling of density troughs during storm recovery can be modeled as filling from the ionosphere toward the equator (i.e., bottom-up refilling), and (2) that an erosion process is operating within flux tubes beyond the outer L-shell wall of the observed density troughs.

Adrian, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as outlined above, each 48 in number, were conducted for five midsummer weakly sheared coastal convective events each at two sites, Mobile, AL (MOB) and Houston, TX (HGX). Of special interest to operational forecasters at MOB and HGX were accuracy of timing and placement of convective storm initiation, reflectivity magnitudes and coverage, rainfall and inferred lightning threat.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Spacecraft Requirements Development and Tailoring

Spacecraft design is managed through the use of design requirements. Requirements are flowed from the highest level, the overall spacecraft, to systems, subsystems and ultimately individual components. Through the use of requirements, each part of the spacecraft will perform the functions that are required of it and will interface to the rest of the spacecraft. Functional requirements are used to make sure every component performs as expected and interface requirements ensure that each component works within the larger design environment where it operates. Writing good requirements is difficult and the verification of requirements can be expensive and time consuming. Because of this difficulty and expense, it is important that each requirement truly be “required” and critical to the overall performance of the vehicle. It is also important that requirements can be changed or eliminated as the system matures to minimize verification cost and schedule. The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Project is developing the parachute system for the NASA Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Orion Spacecraft. Throughout the development and qualification cycle for CPAS, requirements have been evaluated, added, eliminated, or more generically, “tailored”, to ensure that the system performs as required while minimizing the verification cost to the Program. One facet of this tailoring has been to delete requirements that do not add value to the overall spacecraft or are not needed. A second approach to minimize the cost of requirement verification has been to evaluate requirements based on the actual design as it has matured. As the design of the parachute system has become better understood, requirements that are not applicable have been eliminated. This paper will outline the evolution of CPAS requirements over time and will show how careful and considered changes to requirements can benefit the technical solution for the overall system design while allowing a Project to control costs.

Mcmichael, James H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evolution of Orion Mission Design for Exploration Mission 1 and 2

The evolving mission design and concepts of NASA's next steps have shaped Orion into the spacecraft that it is today. Since the initial inception of Orion, through the Constellation Program, and now in the Exploration Mission frame-work with the Space Launch System (SLS), each mission design concept and program goal have left Orion with a set of capabilities that can be utilized in many different mission types. Exploration Missions 1 and 2 (EM-1 and EM-2) have now been at the forefront of the mission design focus for the last several years. During that time, different Design Reference Missions (DRMs) were built, analyzed, and modified to solve or mitigate enterprise level design trades to ensure a viable mission from launch to landing. The resulting DRMs for EM-1 and EM-2 were then expanded into multi-year trajectory scans to characterize vehicle performance and Earth-Moon geometry trends. This provides Orion's subsystems with stressing reference trajectories to help design their system. Now that Orion has progressed through the Preliminary and Critical Design Re-views (PDR and CDR) there is a general shift in the focus of mission design from aiding the vehicle design to providing mission specific products needed for pre-flight and real time operations. Some of the mission specific products need-ed include analysis of steering law performance, inputs into navigational accura-cy assessments, abort options at any point in the mission for each valid trajecto-ry in the launch window, recontact avoidance between the upper stage and Orion post nominal separation, etc.

Gutkowski, Jeffrey P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Jana Kolassa↗