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NASA NTRS2021

Tree-Ring Reconstruction of the Atmospheric Ridging Feature that Causes Flash Drought in the Central United States Since 1500

Rapid drought intensification, or flash droughts, is often driven by anomalous atmospheric ridging and can cause severe and complex impacts on water availability and agriculture, but the full range of variability of such events in terms of intensity and frequency is unknown. New tree-ring reconstructions of May–July mid-tropospheric ridging and soil moisture anomalies back to 1500 CE in the central United States — a hotspot for flash drought — suggest that over the last five centuries, anomalies in these two variables combined to indicate flash-drought conditions in ~17% of years and exceptionally severe flash drought in ~4% of years, similar to frequencies in recent decades. However, over one-third of all inferred exceptional flash droughts occurred since 1900, suggesting the 20th century was highly flash-drought prone. These results may guide future work to diagnose the roles of external, oceanic, and land-surface forcing of warm-season atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate over North America.

Flash Drought↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Investigating the Influence of Clouds on the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water.

The dust and water cycles are critical to the current Martian climate, and they interact with each other through cloud formation. Dust modulates the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly influences atmospheric circulation. Clouds provide radiative forcing and control the net hemispheric transport of water through the alteration of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent advancements in the quality and sophistication of both climate models and observations enable an increased understanding of how the coupling between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) impacts the dust and water cycles. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distributions of dust and water and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. We utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) to show that the magnitude and nature of the hemispheric exchange of water during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. Further, we investigate how clouds influence atmospheric temperatures and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to isolate and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM)↗

NASA NTRS2013

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: a Scientific Assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg/yr in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)W/sq m. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W/sq m. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W/sq m. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W/sq m, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (0.50 to +1.08) W/sq m during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (0.06 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of 1.45 to +1.29 W/sq m). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

black carbon↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Regulation of Tropical Climate by Radiative Cooling as Simulated in a Cumulus Ensemble Model

Responses of tropical atmosphere to low-boundary forcing are investigated in a 2-D cumulus ensemble model (CEM) with an imposed warm-pool and cold-pool SST contrast (deltaSST). The domain-mean vertical motion is constrained to produce heat sink and moisture source as in the observed tropical climate. In a series of experiments, the warm pool SST is specified at different values while the cold pool SST is specified at 26 C. The strength of the circulation increases with increasing deltaSST until deltaSST reaches 3.5 C, and remains unchanged as deltaSST exceeds 3.5 C. The regulation of tropical convection by zonal SST gradient is constrained by the radiative cooling over the cold pool. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an enhanced subsidence warming is balanced by a reduced condensation heating over the cold pool. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, the subsidence regime expands over the entire cold pool where no condensation heating exist so that a further enhanced subsidence warming can no longer be sustained. The above regulation mechanism is also evident in the change of energy at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that is dominated by cloud and water vapor greenhouse effect (c (sub LW)) and G (sub clear). The change in shortwave radiation at TOA is largely cancelled between the warm pool and cold pool, likely due to the same imposed vertical motion in our experiments. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an increase of deltaSST is associated with a large increase in c (sub Lw) due to increased total clouds in response to enhanced SST-induced circulation. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, clouds over the warm pool decrease with increasing SST, and the change in c (sub LW) is much smaller. In both dSST regimes, the change in CLW is larger than the change in G(sub clear) which is slightly negative. However, in the case of uniform warming (deltaSST=0), DeltaG(sub clear), is positive, approximately 5 W per square meters per degree change of SST.

Sui, Chung-Hsiung↗

NASA NTRS1999

Evaluation of Dust Absorption and Radiative Forcing of Climate Using Satellite and Ground Based Remote Sensing

Simultaneous spaceborne and ground based measurements of the scattered solar radiation, create a powerful tool for determination of dust absorption. Absorption of solar radiation is a key component in understanding dust impact on radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere, on the temperature profile and on cloud formation. We use Landsat spaceborne measurements at seven spectral channels in the range of 0.47 to 2.2 microns over Senegal with corresponding measurements of the aerosol spectral optical thickness by ground based sunphotometers, to find that Saharan dust absorption of solar radiation is two to four times smaller than measured in situ and represented in models. Though dust was found to absorb in the blue (single scattering albedo wo = 0.88), almost no absorption, wo = 0.98, was found for 1 greater than 0.6 microns. The results are in agreement with dust radiative measurements reported in the literature, and explain some previously reported but unexplained dust radiative properties. Therefore, the new finding should be of general relevance. The new finding increases by 50% recently estimated solar radiative forcing by dust at the top of the atmosphere and decreases the estimated dust heating of the lower troposphere due to absorption of solar radiation. Dust transported from Asia shows slightly higher absorption for wavelengths under 1 @im, that can be explained by the presence of black carbon from urban/industrial pollution associated with the submicron size mode.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS1999

Assessed Using Satellite Data and Ground Based Sun/Sky Radiometers

The short aerosol lifetime and the variety of sources and atmospheric processes that affect the aerosol concentration and properties, generate a very heterogeneous aerosol field. Satellite data are needed to assess the daily global distribution of aerosol loading, properties and radiative forcing of climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument launched in July 1999 measures the aerosol properties and backscattered radiation in 7 spectral channels across the solar channel with spatial resolution of 500 m. Novel inversion techniques are used to derive the aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere in these 7 spectral bands with even higher accuracy than the derivation of the aerosol loading or microphysical properties. But satellites cannot sense the aerosol attenuation of radiation reaching the Earth surface. A network of 100 sun/sky radiometers, members of the AErosol RObotic NEtwork (AERONET) is used to assess, simultaneously, the radiative forcing of aerosol at the surface level. The relevance of MODIS and AERONET to assess the global aerosol forcing, and the inversion techniques will be presented and discussed.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Full nonlinear treatment of the global thermospheric wind system. Part 1: Mathematical method and analysis of forces

The equations of horizontal motion of the neutral atmosphere between 120 and 500 km are integrated with the inclusion of all the nonlinear terms of the convective derivative and the viscous forces due to vertical and horizontal velocity gradients. Empirical models of the distribution of neutral and charged particles are assumed to be known. The model of velocities developed is a steady state model. In part 1 the mathematical method used in the integration of the Navier-Stokes equations is described and the various forces are analysed.

Blum, P. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

System noise analysis of the dumbbell tethered satellite for gravity-gradient measurements

An analysis of the dumbbell gravity gradiometer concept for measuring short wavelength variations in the earth's gravity gradient is presented. Variations in the gradient are recorded by measuring tension variations in a vertically stabilized satellite consisting of heavy masses connected by a long wire or rod. Tension noise arises from the excitation of various mechanical oscillations of the system. The principal noise sources that were identified are fluctuations in atmospheric drag heating and drag force resulting from density variations and winds. Approximate analytical expressions are presented for the tension noise as a function of the system design parameters for various possible configurations. Computer simulations using numerical integration were performed to study the tension noise for several sample cases. Three designs consistent with Shuttle launch capabilities are discussed.

Colombo, G.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Shuttle entry trajectory reconstruction using inflight accelerometer and gyro measurements

An error analysis has been made of a Shuttle postflight entry trajectory reconstruction process to obtain trajectory state estimation errors and to assess the impact of these errors on Shuttle aerodynamic force coefficient extraction. In this analysis, the entry trajectory is assumed to be reconstructed via numerical integration of onboard accelerometer and gyro measurements and constrained to satisfy ground-based radio tracking. The trajectory state estimation errors are calculated using a Kalman-Schmidt sequential filter assuming various measurement error models and combinations of ground-based tracking. The resultant trajectory estimation errors are analyzed in a simplified perturbation process to establish the accuracy to which postflight aerodynamic force coefficients can be determined. Results are presented which show that the principal error sources affecting the trajectory reconstruction and thus the force coefficient extraction, assuming perfect atmospheric density knowledge, are the accelerometer and gyro resolution, acceleration-sensitive gyro drifts, and the alignment uncertainties associated with integration on the Shuttle.

Compton, H. R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A four-dimensional primitive equation model for coupled coastal-deep ocean studies

A prototype four dimensional continental shelf/deep ocean model is described. In its present form, the model incorporates the effects of finite amplitude topography, advective nonlinearities, and variable stratification and rotation. The model can be forced either directly by imposed atmospheric windstress and surface pressure distributions, and energetic mean currents imposed by the exterior oceanic circulation; or indirectly by initial distributions of shoreward propagation mesoscale waves and eddies. To avoid concerns over the appropriate specification of 'open' boundary conditions on the cross-shelf and seaward model boundaries, a periodic channel geometry (oriented along-coast) is used. The model employs a traditional finite difference expansion in the cross-shelf direction, and a Fourier (periodic) representation in the long-shelf coordinate.

Haidvogel, D. B.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The Satellite Sail

It is proposed to suspend an airfoil from the Space Shuttle by a long tether into the upper atmosphere to provide a horizontal force on the Shuttle, thereby changing its orbital plane most efficiently. The airfoil would need high-temperature skin and tether, and remotely controlled flaps to adjust its angle of attack. The airfoil could also be used as a hypersonic facility to measure aerodynamic characteristics at extreme altitudes and velocities. This use would require a vertical lift force to counteract the drag force and prevent the Shuttle orbit from decaying too rapidly during the aerodynamic measurements.

Pearson, J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Magneto-atmospheric waves from a localized source

A technique developed by Lighthill (1960, 1965, and 1967) for finding the asymptotic solution of an inhomogeneous wave equation with constant coefficients is applied to the study of wave propagation in magneto-atmospheres. The geometry of the wavenumber surface plays an important role in determining the generation and propagation of various types of magneto-atmospheric waves from a localized forcing region. Examples of these wavenumber surfaces are exhibited for various magnetic-field strengths and wave frequencies. The asymptotic far field is tabulated for a time-harmonic spatially Gaussian localized forcing term.

Adam, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Physical mechanisms of solar activity effects in the middle atmosphere

A great variety of physical mechanisms of possibly solar induced variations in the middle atmosphere has been discussed in the literature during the last decades. The views which have been put forward are often controversial in their physical consequences. The reason may be the complexity and non-linearity of the atmospheric response to comparatively weak forcing resulting from solar activity. Therefore this review focuses on aspects which seem to indicate nonlinear processes in the development of solar induced variations. Results from observations and numerical simulations are discussed.

Ebel, A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Scientific ballooning payload termination loads

NASA's high altitude balloon borne scientific payloads are typically suspended from a deployed flat circular parachute. At flight termination, the recovery train is pyrotechnically separated at the parachute apex and balloon nadir interface. The release of elastic energy stored in the parachute at zero initial vertical velocity in the rarefied atmosphere produces high canopy opening forces that subject the gondola to potentially damaging shock loads. Data from terminations occurring at altitudes to 40 km with payloads up to 2500 kg on parachutes up to 40 m in diameter are presented. Measured loads are markedly larger than encountered via packed parachute deployment for similar canopy loadings. Canopy inflation is significantly suppressed in the early stages and then accelerated during final blossoming. Data interpretation and behavioral phenomena are discussed along with proposed shock attenuation techniques.

Robbins, E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Atmospheric excitation of nonseasonal polar motion

Analysis of nonseasonal polar motion excitation and atmospheric mass equatorial angular momentum (EAM) over land for the period 1980-1989 reveals a clear pattern of high power and correlation during the northern hemisphere (NH) winter followed by low power and correlation during the NH summer. A special case of this pattern occurs for longer than 14 months (from January 1987 to March 1988) when the correlation throughout the NH summer remains statistically significant. During this epoch an average of 72% of the nonseasonal polar motion excitation power at frequencies between -30 and +12 cycles/yr linearly related to atmospheric EAM over land. During the southern hemisphere winter there is significant correlation between the atmospheric EAM over midlatitude southern oceans and polar motion excitation indicating the existence of a dynamic atmosphere-ocean excitation. The atmospheric excitation power is too small to explain the large correlation during the NH winter. The effects of winds probably account for the deficit in power. The implication of these results is that there are two main excitation sources each dominant at different seasons. Atmospheric mass redistribution over land forces polar motion during the NH winter, and a dynamic atmpshere-ocean response is important during the SH winter.

Kuehne, John↗

NASA NTRS1995

Earth observations from space: History, promise, and reality. Executive summary

In this report the Committee on Earth Studies (CES), a standing committee of the Space Studies Board (SSB) within the National Research Council (NRC), reviews the recent history (nominally from 1981 to 1995) of the U.S. earth observations programs that serve civilian needs. The principal observations programs examined are those of NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Air Force' s Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) is discussed, but only from the perspective of its relationship to civil needs and the planned merger with the NOAA polar-orbiting system. The report also reviews the interfaces between the earth observations satellite programs and the major national and international environmental monitoring and research programs. The monitoring and research programs discussed are the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), related international scientific campaigns, and operational programs for the sharing and application of environmental data. The purpose of this report is to provide a broad historical review and commentary based on the views of the CES members, with particular emphasis on tracing the lengthy record of advisory committee recommendations. Any individual topic could be the subject of an extended report in its own right. Indeed, extensive further reviews are already under way to that end. If the CES has succeeded in the task it has undertaken. This report will serve as a useful starting point for any such more intensive study. The report is divided into eight chapters: ( I ) an introduction, (2) the evolution of the MTPE, (3) its relationship to the USGCRP, (4) applications of earth observations data, (5) the role that smaller satellites can play in research and operational remote sensing, (6) earth system modeling and information systems, (7) a number of associated activities that contribute to the MTPE and the USGCRP, and (8) organizational issues in the conduct of civil earth observations programs. Following the body of the report is a series of appendixes: after a list of acronyms and abbreviations and collected short biographies of CES members, six brief tutorials discuss several scientific topics important to the science and applications of earth observations. Highlights from the eight chapters follow.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1999

Reconstruction of the 1997/1998 El Nino from TOPEX/POSEIDON and TOGA/TAO Data Using a Massively Parallel Pacific-Ocean Model and Ensemble Kalman Filter

Two massively parallel data assimilation systems in which the model forecast-error covariances are estimated from the distribution of an ensemble of model integrations are applied to the assimilation of 97-98 TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry and TOGA/TAO temperature data into a Pacific basin version the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. in the first system, ensemble of model runs forced by an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations is used to calculate asymptotic error statistics. The data assimilation then occurs in the reduced phase space spanned by the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal functions. The second system is an ensemble Kalman filter in which new error statistics are computed during each assimilation cycle from the time-dependent ensemble distribution. The data assimilation experiments are conducted on NSIPP's 512-processor CRAY T3E. The two data assimilation systems are validated by withholding part of the data and quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The pros and cons of each system are discussed.

Keppenne, C. L.↗