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At least 487 records · Page 27

Characterizing manufacturing sector disruptions with targeted mitigation strategies

It has become clear in recent decades that manufacturing supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions of varying geographical scales and intensities. These disruptions—whether intentional, accidental, or resulting from natural disasters—cause failures and capacity reductions to manufacturing infrastructure, with lasting effects that can cascade throughout the manufacturing network. An overall lack of understanding of solutions to mitigate disturbances has rendered the challenge of reducing manufacturing supply chain vulnerability even more difficult. Additionally, the variability of disruptions and their impacts complicates policy maker and stakeholder efforts to plan for specific disruptive scenarios. It is necessary to comprehend different kinds of disturbances and group them based on stakeholder-provided metrics to support planning processes and modeling efforts that promote adaptable, resilient manufacturing supply chains. This paper reviews existing methods for risk management in manufacturing supply chains and the economic and environmental impacts of disruptions. In addition, we develop a framework using agglomerative hierarchical clustering to classify disruptions using U.S. manufacturing network data between 2000 and 2021 and characteristic metrics defined in the literature. Our review identifies five groups of disruptions and discusses both general mitigation methods and strategies targeting each identified group. Further, we highlight gaps in the literature related to estimating and including environmental costs in disaster preparedness and mitigation planning. We also discuss the lack of easily available metrics to quantify environmental impacts of disruptions and how such metrics could be included into our methodology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DEEPEN 3D PFA Weights for Exploration Datasets in Magmatic Environments

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the development of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology for magmatic plays (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), weights needed to be developed for use in the weighted sum of the different favorability index models produced from geoscientific exploration datasets. This GDR submission includes those weights. The weighting was done using two different approaches: one based on expert opinions, and one based on statistical learning. The weights are intended to describe how useful a particular exploration method is for imaging each component of each play type. They may be adjusted based on the characteristics of the resource under investigation, knowledge of the quality of the dataset, or simply to reduce the impact a single dataset has on the resulting outputs. Within the DEEPEN PFA, separate sets of weights are produced for each component of each play type, since exploration methods hold different levels of importance for detecting each play component, within each play type. The weights for conventional hydrothermal systems were based on the average of the normalized weights used in the DOE-funded PFA projects that were focused on magmatic plays. This decision was made because conventional hydrothermal plays are already well-studied and understood, and therefore it is logical to use existing weights where possible. In contrast, a true PFA has never been applied to superhot EGS or supercritical plays, meaning that exploration methods have never been weighted in terms of their utility in imaging the components of these plays. To produce weights for superhot EGS and supercritical plays, two different approaches were used: one based on expert opinion and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and another using a statistical approach based on principal component analysis (PCA). The weights are intended to provide standardized sets of weights for each play type in all magmatic geothermal systems. Two different approaches were used to investigate whether a more data-centric approach might allow new insights into the datasets, and also to analyze how different weighting approaches impact the outcomes. The expert/AHP approach involved using an online tool (https://bpmsg.com/ahp/) with built-in forms to make pairwise comparisons which are used to rank exploration methods against one-another. The inputs are then combined in a quantitative way, ultimately producing a set of consensus-based weights. To minimize the burden on each individual participant, the forms were completed in group discussions. While the group setting means that there is potential for some opinions to outweigh others, it also provides a venue for conversation to take place, in theory leading the group to a more robust consensus then what can be achieved on an individual basis. This exercise was done with two separate groups: one consisting of U.S.-based experts, and one consisting of Iceland-based experts in magmatic geothermal systems. The two sets of weights were then averaged to produce what we will from here on refer to as the "expert opinion-based weights," or "expert weights" for short. While expert opinions allow us to include more nuanced information in the weights, expert opinions are subject to human bias. Data-centric or statistical approaches help to overcome these potential human biases by focusing on and drawing conclusions from the data alone. More information on this approach along with the dataset used to produce the statistical weights may be found in the linked dataset below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Design and fabrication of TiO 2 -based dye sensitized solar cells using plant-derived organic dyes

The utilization of solar energy, an abundant and renewable resource, shows great promise. Various technologies have been employed to capture this vast energy potential. In this study, the effectiveness of natural dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) was explored through experimental and computational methods. Organic dyes derived from specific plant species were examined, with a solvent mixture of ethanol, methanol, and tetrahydrofuran used for extraction. A UV–vis spectrophotometer was utilized to measure the sensitizers’ optical characteristics. The study employed density functional theory (DFT), implemented in Gaussian 09 W software, to perform computational calculations. The B3LYP method and a basis set of 6-31G++(d,p) were chosen for optimizing the geometries and energetics of dye molecules. The DFT results indicated that the dye molecules had a bandgap in the range of 2.16–2.38 eV. The photochemical performance of all four fabricated DSSC-based devices was evaluated to be between 0.33% and 1.04%, and the Euryops pectinatus sensitizer demonstrated the highest efficiency of 1.04% among the studied sensitizers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Best Practices for Measuring the Modulation Transfer Function of Video Endoscopes

Endoscopes are crucial for assisting in surgery and disease diagnosis, including the early detection of cancer. The effective use of endoscopes relies on their optical performance, which can be characterized with a series of metrics such as resolution, vital for revealing anatomical details. The modulation transfer function (MTF) is a key metric for evaluating endoscope resolution. However, the 2020 version of the ISO 8600-5 standard, while introducing an endoscope MTF measurement method, lacks empirical validation and excludes opto-electronic video endoscopes, the largest family of endoscopes. Measuring the MTF of video endoscopes requires tailored standards that address their unique characteristics. This paper aims to expand the scope of ISO 8600-5:2020 to include video endoscopes, by optimizing the MTF test method and addressing parameters affecting measurement accuracy. We studied the effects of intensity and uniformity of image luminance, chart modulation compensation, linearity of image digital values, auto gain control, image enhancement, image compression and the region of interest dimensions on images of slanted-edge test charts, and thus the MTF based on these images. By analyzing these effects, we provided recommendations for setting and controlling these factors to obtain accurate MTF curves. Our goal is to enhance the standard’s relevance and effectiveness for measuring the MTF of a broader range of endoscopic devices, with potential applications in the MTF measurement of other digital imaging devices.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Deuterium retention characteristics in Li film by coating and during flowing liquid Li limiter operation in experimental advanced superconducting tokamak

Lithium (Li) is a promising low-Z material for particle recycling and impurity control to improve plasma performance in fusion devices. In the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST), Li coating has become a routine method for wall conditioning, and a flowing liquid Li (FLiLi) limiter has been successfully tested several times. Deuterium retention characteristics in the Li film coated on the international thermonuclear experimental reactor-like tungsten divertor and FLiLi during plasma discharges, which is important for the utilization of Li in future fusion devices, were investigated in EAST. It is found that the absorption of the fuel particles by Li coatings decreases gradually, and recycling gradually increases over a series of discharges. The maximum net amount of deuterium retained reached ~0.8 g, corresponding to 12% deuterium in the Li. Furthermore, this corresponds to a whole day's worth of shots with a total of 87 plasma discharges and a total of ~640s plasma time after 11.75 g Li was deposited. Compared to the Li coating, it is shown that FLiLi continuously traps fuel particles and achieves a higher deuterium retention ratio over both the short- and long-term, leading to lower recycling. Meanwhile, it is also observed that the fuel particle retention ratio increases when FLiLi is closer to the plasma. This result is likely due to higher plasma heating power and limiter temperature, which cause an increased Li efflux from FLiLi due to a higher limiter temperature, which then redeposits on the other plasma-facing surfaces and increases fuel particle absorption. It is estimated that ≥ 80% of the retained D particles are captured by the continual renewal of the Li redeposition film during the FLiLi operation. This investigation would also be useful for D/T retention in future fusion devices if Li is used as a plasma-facing component.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Design and analysis of a wake model for spatially heterogeneous flow

Abstract. Methods of turbine wake modeling are being developed to more accurately account for spatially variant atmospheric conditions within wind farms. Most current wake modeling utilities are designed to apply a uniform flow field to the entire domain of a wind farm. When this method is used, the accuracy of power prediction and wind farm controls can be compromised depending on the flow-field characteristics of a particular area. In an effort to improve strategies of wind farm wake modeling and power prediction, FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) was developed to implement sophisticated methods of atmospheric characterization and power output calculation. In this paper, we describe an adapted FLORIS model that features spatial heterogeneity in flow-field characterization. This model approximates an observed flow field by interpolating from a set of atmospheric measurements that represent local weather conditions. The objective of this method is to capture heterogeneous atmospheric effects caused by site-specific terrain features, without explicitly modeling the geometry of the wind farm terrain. The implemented adaptations were validated by comparing the simulated power predictions generated from FLORIS to the actual recorded wind farm output from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) recordings and large eddy simulations (LESs). When comparing the performance of the proposed heterogeneous model to homogeneous FLORIS simulations, the results show a 14.6 % decrease for mean absolute error (MAE) in wind farm power output predictions for cases using wind farm SCADA data and a 18.9 % decrease in LES case studies. The results of these studies also indicate that the efficacy of the proposed modeling techniques may vary with differing site-specific operational conditions. This work quantifies the accuracy of wind plant power predictions under heterogeneous flow conditions and establishes best practices for atmospheric surveying for wake modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Application and evaluation of a pattern-based building energy model calibration method using public building datasets

Building performance simulation has been adopted to support decision making in the building life cycle. An essential issue is to ensure a building energy simulation model can capture the reality and complexity of buildings and their systems in both the static characteristics and dynamic operations. Building energy model calibration is a technique that takes various types of measured performance data (e.g., energy use) and tunes key model parameters to match the simulated results with the actual measurements. This study performed an application and evaluation of an automated pattern-based calibration method on commercial building models that were generated based on characteristics of real buildings. A public building dataset that includes high-level building attributes (e.g., building type, vintage, total floor area, number of stories, zip code) of 111 buildings in San Francisco, California, USA, was used to generate building models in EnergyPlus. Monthly level energy use calibrations were then conducted by comparing building model results against the actual buildings' monthly electricity and natural gas consumption. The results showed 57 out of 111 buildings were successfully calibrated against actual buildings, while the remaining buildings showed opportunities for future calibration improvements. Enhancements to the pattern-based model calibration method are identified to expand its use for: (1) central heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with chillers, (2) space heating and hot water heating with electricity sources, (3) mixed-use building types, and (4) partially occupied buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Structural, Electronic, and Photophysical Insights into a Few Atom Copper-Sulfur Cluster in the Solid and Solution States

Coinage-metal chalcogenide clusters are widely studied for their attractive photoluminescence properties. Copper chalcogenides are especially promising, but are often confined to solid-state investigations due to their limited solution stability and the difficulty of synthesizing stable, well-defined clusters. Here, we investigate copper–sulfur clusters incorporating a small number of Cu atoms to elucidate fundamental atomic interactions, ground- and excited-state characteristics, and photophysical behavior in both solid and solution. We have synthesized the Cu6(4,6-dimethyl-2-mercaptopyrimidine)6 cluster in both neutral and charged states, Cu6 and Cu6-2H2+, respectively, by selective ligand protonation. The molecular structures are determined using single-crystal X-ray diffraction, while Cu K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy is used to probe Cu electronic structure differences arising from the ligand modification. Steady-state and pump-probe optical spectroscopy is used to investigate photophysical properties, interpreted using density functional theory methods. Both clusters exhibit good stability in the solid state and in solution and show characteristic near-infrared emission with microsecond lifetimes. Overall, the Cu6S6 clusters display favorable charge–transfer characteristics and show potential for further use in driving photochemical transformations.

Copper-sulfur clusters↗

Flexible robotic actuators

Systems and methods for providing flexible robotic actuators are disclosed. Some embodiments of the disclosed subject matter include a soft robot capable of providing a radial deflection motions; a soft tentacle actuator capable of providing a variety of motions and providing transportation means for various types of materials; and a hybrid robotic system that retains desirable characteristics of both soft robots and hard robots. Some embodiments of the disclosed subject matter also include methods for operating the disclosed robotic systems.

Morin, Stephen A.↗

CrysFieldExplorer : rapid optimization of the crystal field Hamiltonian

A new approach to the fast optimization of crystal electric field (CEF) parameters to fit experimental data is presented. This approach is implemented in a lightweight Python-based program, CrysFieldExplorer. The main novelty of the method is the development of a unique loss function, referred to as the spectrum characteristic loss (L Spectrum ), which is based on the characteristic polynomial of the Hamiltonian matrix. Particle swarm optimization and a covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy are used to find the minimum of the total loss function. It is demonstrated that CrysFieldExplorer can perform direct fitting of CEF parameters to any experimental data such as a neutron spectrum, susceptibility or magnetization measurements etc. CrysFieldExplorer can handle a large number of non-zero CEF parameters and reveal multiple local and global minimum solutions. Crystal field theory, the loss function, and the implementation and limitations of the program are discussed within the context of two examples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Frequency domain assurance criterion for defect detection in additively manufactured parts

Additive manufacturing (AM) is a very desirable manufacturing method for industries such as aerospace and automotive due to its ability to create internal features and complex geometries, however, these characteristics also present challenges for nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and defect detection. Dynamic analysis and modal analysis have shown promise for NDE and identifying flaws in AM parts. Frequency Domain Assurance Criterion (FDAC) is a method of dynamic evaluation that represents the degree of correlation between two sets of operational deflection shapes (ODS) at each spectral line. Using colormaps to display the results allows for quick and easy interpretation of parts’ similarities and differences. This method appears to show promise in identifying parts with minor defects and can be used to differentiate nominal and defective parts. This paper explores the use of FDAC on various AM parts with and without intentional defects.

Deonarain, G↗

Optical Control of Adaptive Nanoscale Domain Networks

Adaptive networks can sense and adjust to dynamic environments to optimize their performance. Understanding their nanoscale responses to external stimuli is essential for applications in nanodevices and neuromorphic computing. However, it is challenging to image such responses on the nanoscale with crystallographic sensitivity. Here, the evolution of nanodomain networks in (PbTiO 3 ) n /(SrTiO 3 ) n superlattices (SLs) is directly visualized in real space as the system adapts to ultrafast repetitive optical excitations that emulate controlled neural inputs. The adaptive response allows the system to explore a wealth of metastable states that are previously inaccessible. Their reconfiguration and competition are quantitatively measured by scanning x-ray nanodiffraction as a function of the number of applied pulses, in which crystallographic characteristics are quantitatively assessed by assorted diffraction patterns using unsupervised machine-learning methods. The corresponding domain boundaries and their connectivity are drastically altered by light, holding promise for light-programable nanocircuits in analogy to neuroplasticity. Phase-field simulations elucidate that the reconfiguration of the domain networks is a result of the interplay between photocarriers and transient lattice temperature. The demonstrated optical control scheme and the uncovered nanoscopic insights open opportunities for the remote control of adaptive nanoscale domain networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of the rheological and electrical percolation of high‐density polyethylene/carbon black composites using mathematical models

Abstract In this work, conductive polymer composites (CPCs) of bio‐based polyethylene (BioPe) containing different concentrations of carbon black (CB) were developed. By using oscillatory rheology analysis, a Newtonian plateau was observed in BioPe, and all BioPe/CB composites had a behavior of a pseudo‐solid and that composites with volume fractions ranging from 0.24 to 0.56 presented higher viscosity, storage, and loss modulus. This suggests the formation of a percolated network and by using the power‐law models, it was observed that the electrical percolation threshold was higher than the rheological percolation threshold. The electrical conductivity was measured using the four‐point probe method and a sigmoid model was used to predict the CPCs' electrical conductivity percolation threshold. The results indicated that the four‐point probe method presented satisfactory results according to the calculated standard deviations and voltage–current characteristics for each round of measurements considering the same ranging as used in rheology analysis. The analytical model used showed a coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) higher than 95%, allowing the prediction of the electrical conductivity of the CPC and the percolation threshold as a function of the volumetric fraction of the CB.

da SiIva, Moacy P.↗

The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon in the Standard Model

We review the present status of the Standard Model calculation of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. This is performed in a perturbative expansion in the fine-structure constant α and is broken down into pure QED, electroweak, and hadronic contributions. The pure QED contribution is by far the largest and has been evaluated up to and including O(α 5 ) with negligible numerical uncertainty. The electroweak contribution is suppressed by (m μ / M W ) 2 and only shows up at the level of the seventh significant digit. It has been evaluated up to two loops and is known to better than one percent. Hadronic contributions are the most difficult to calculate and are responsible for almost all of the theoretical uncertainty. The leading hadronic contribution appears at O(α 2 ) and is due to hadronic vacuum polarization, whereas at O(α 3 ) the hadronic light-by-light scattering contribution appears. Given the low characteristic scale of this observable, these contributions have to be calculated with nonperturbative methods, in particular, dispersion relations and the lattice approach to QCD. The largest part of this review is dedicated to a detailed account of recent efforts to improve the calculation of these two contributions with either a data-driven, dispersive approach, or a first- principle, lattice-QCD approach. The final result reads $a$$^{SM}_{μ}$ = 116 591 810(43) × 10 −11 and is smaller than the Brookhaven measurement by 3.7σ. The experimental uncertainty will soon be reduced by up to a factor four by the new experiment currently running at Fermilab, and also by the future J-PARC experiment. Furthermore, this and the prospects to further reduce the theoretical uncertainty in the near future – which are also discussed here – make this quantity one of the most promising places to look for evidence of new physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century

Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21 st Century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8-digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K-means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with Mountain, Plateau and Basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landform type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning with bond information for local structure optimizations in surface science

Local optimization of adsorption systems inherently involves different scales: within the substrate, within the molecule, and between the molecule and the substrate. In this work, we show how the explicit modeling of different characteristics of the bonds in these systems improves the performance of machine learning methods for optimization. Furthermore, we introduce an anisotropic kernel in the Gaussian process regression framework that guides the search for the local minimum, and we show its overall good performance across different types of atomic systems. The method shows a speed-up of up to a factor of two compared with the fastest standard optimization methods on adsorption systems. Additionally, we show that a limited memory approach is not only beneficial in terms of overall computational resources but can also result in a further reduction of energy and force calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Linear shaped-charge jet optimization using machine learning methods

Linear shaped charges are used to focus energy into rapidly creating a deep linear incision. The general design of a shaped charge involves detonating a confined mass of high explosive (HE) with a metal-lined concave cavity on one side to produce a high velocity jet for the purpose of striking and penetrating a given material target. This jetting effect occurs due to the interaction of the detonation wave with the cavity geometry, which produces an unstable fluid phenomenon known as the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability and results in the rapid growth of a long narrow jet. We apply machine learning and optimization methods to hydrodynamics simulations of linear shaped charges to improve the simulated jet characteristics. The designs that we propose and investigate in this work generally involve modifying the behavior of the detonation waves prior to interaction with the liner material. These designs include the placement of multiple detonators and the use of metal inclusions within the HE. In conclusion, we are able to produce a linear shaped-charge design with a higher penetration depth than the baseline case that we consider and accomplish this using the same amount of or less HE.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗