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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Renewables for Arctic Energy: A Case Study

Alaska is a vast state that stretches into the Arctic Circle. Roughly 140,000 people in the state are dependent on isolated electric grids, traditionally burning expensive fossil fuels. This has negative impacts on air quality and climate. As the climate warms, fuel supply chains and traditional ways of life are threatened. Renewable electric sources offer a clean, resilient alternative with less volatile costs, but there are a variety of technical, social, economic, and political challenges to developing renewable energy systems in remote Arctic communities. Examples include harsh operating conditions, lack of local technical and managerial capacity, complex funding mechanisms, and glacial permitting processes. In this study, we interview one group of communities that are interested in adding renewable energy to their systems to understand the needs and challenges they face, and then another group that has successfully installed renewable energy, to understand how they overcame such challenges and the lessons they learned. Notable results include the importance of local buy-in, education, and technical involvement, procuring external funding sources, inter-community collaboration, installing bespoke systems, and working with reliable equipment suppliers. The goal of this report is to orient and inspire Arctic communities that want to begin their renewable transition, by providing helpful examples and points of contact.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spin-Controllable Dynamics in Defect-Engineered Carbon Nanotubes as Single Photon Emitters: Data-Driven Modeling and Computations

Quantum technologies, such as quantum computing and sensing, require efficient single-photon emission (SPE) sources that operate at room temperature in telecom wavelengths. While several materials can serve as SPE sources, no single platform meets all the criteria for efficiency, ambient operation, and scalability. Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) with covalently attached molecules offer a promising solution. Their SPE can be easily tuned via modifications of the SWCNT's diameter, chirality, and bonded molecules, enabling emission across near-IR to telecom wavelengths at ambient conditions. However, to fully realize the potential of SWCNTs and unlock their quantum capabilities, a deeper understanding of how structural defects from molecular adducts affect their emission and competing photoexcited processes is essential. To address this gap in our knowledge, this project combined quantum chemistry calculations with data-driven methods of cheminformatics (QSAR) and machine learning (ML). The developed computational approaches have provided several design strategies for covalent functionalization of SWCNTs to improve their optical response. The collaboration with Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) enabled direct comparison of computational and experimental data, facilitating method validation. This partnership was enhanced through access to LANL's Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies (CINT) utilizing User Facility Program and summer internships, which provided three NDSU graduate students with hands-on experience at LANL. The outcomes of this project included (1) Advancing the current stage of computational methods in accurate modeling of non-adiabatic spin-dependent photoexcited dynamics and its applicability to nanosystems consisting of thousands of atoms, realized as open-access codes linked to existing DFT-based software; (2) Establishing the relationship between the structure of adducts and SWCNTs and intrinsic excitonic and spin properties of defect states for guiding novel synthetic strategies and experimental probes of chemically functionalized SWCNTs as near-IR emitting materials; (3) Generating virtual libraries of hypothetical functionalized SWCNTs for virtual screening of their chemical structures and optical properties, leveraging new functionalities of SWCNTs; (4) Offering a unique experience for NDSU graduate students that prepared them for future scientific careers related to materials modeling and big data processing. These results were summarized in 12 published journal papers and 3 recently submitted papers. One of a key finding is that the position of defect sites on the SWCNT surface primarily drives the emission redshift (up to 100 meV), while the polarity of the defect-inducing molecules has a much smaller effect (~10 meV). However, the electron-donating or withdrawing properties of a molecule influence selecting reactivity of defect sites. These insights important for optimizing synthetic protocols for desired emissions in SWCNTs. We also revealed that the interaction between two defects at various positions on the SWCNT enhances the redshift and optical activity of states, favoring strong near-IR emission. This suggests that manipulations in defect concentrations is a promising strategy for controlling efficient emission. Mostly important, the defect position was found controllable by the spin states of photoexcited intermediates: Excited aromatic molecules form ortho defects with SWCNTs at their singlet states in the presence of oxygen, while oxygen-free conditions favor para defects via the triplet-state mechanism. Additionally, a heat-activated [2+2] cycloaddition reaction facilitates divalent defect formation with fewer bonding positions that narrows emission bands. These groundbreaking findings have been experimentally validated and significantly advance our understanding of defect chemistry in SWCNTs. Using a novel encoding technique and 3D-MoRSE descriptors, we developed highly accurate ML/QSAR models to predict both the 3D structure and optical properties of SWCNTs with chemical defects. This model enabled the creation of a virtual library of 125,556 structures, providing new insights into the relationship between SWCNT-defect structure and emission.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2002

Making Sense of Rocket Science - Building NASA's Knowledge Management Program

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has launched a range of KM activities-from deploying intelligent "know-bots" across millions of electronic sources to ensuring tacit knowledge is transferred across generations. The strategy and implementation focuses on managing NASA's wealth of explicit knowledge, enabling remote collaboration for international teams, and enhancing capture of the key knowledge of the workforce. An in-depth view of the work being done at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) shows the integration of academic studies and practical applications to architect, develop, and deploy KM systems in the areas of document management, electronic archives, information lifecycles, authoring environments, enterprise information portals, search engines, experts directories, collaborative tools, and in-process decision capture. These systems, together, comprise JPL's architecture to capture, organize, store, and distribute key learnings for the U.S. exploration of space.

knowledge management organizational learning NASA ↗
NASA NTRS2020

RMIT AR Android Application Abstract

This summer, I've worked as an intern for IT-C1's Rapid Model Import Tool (RMIT) project under Bill Little. The goal of this project was to develop a mobile application for IT-C1's larger project, RMIT, so that it could be deployed in a convenient way. The current function of RMIT is to import file types that are not normally compatible with the Unity 3D software development engine and make them into files that can be placed into Unity for the specific purpose of viewing CAD models in virtual reality (VR). The mobile application that I worked on uses augmented reality (AR), using the camera on a mobile device, to show virtual models in the real world for the purpose of visualization and understanding. In addition to single-player capabilities, this application will include a multi-player mode so that collaborating engineers can see each other's work on their own devices.Working on this application required many steps. First, I hard to learn a lot about how mobile development is different from desktop development, and what the limitations of augmented reality are at its current state. From there, I was assigned new tasks and goals every two weeks, which included addingground plane and air plane functionality, designing a user interface, adding multi-player capability and allowing the user to manipulate models placed in a scene.

Dorian Thompson↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards Trust-Augmented Visual Analytics for Data-Driven Energy Modeling

The promise of data-driven predictive modeling is being increasingly realized in various science and engineering disciplines, where experts are used to the more conventional, simulation-driven modeling practices. However, trust remains a bottleneck for greater adoption of machine learning-based models for domain experts, who might not be necessarily trained in data science. In this paper, we focus on the building energy domain, where physics-based simulations are being complemented or replaced by machine learning-based methods for forecasting energy supply and demand at various spatio-temporal scales. We study the trust problem in close collaboration with energy scientists and engineers and describe how visual analytics can be leveraged for alleviating this trust bottleneck for stakeholders with varying degrees of expertise and analytics goals in this domain.

Kandakatla, Akshith R.↗
DOE OSTI2016

TH-F-202-00: MRI for Radiation Therapy

MRI has excellent soft tissue contrast and can provide both anatomical and physiological information. It is becoming increasingly important in radiation therapy for treatment planning, image-guided radiation therapy, and treatment assessment. It is critically important at this time point to educate and update our medical physicists about MRI to prepare for the upcoming surge of MRI applications in radiation therapy. This session will review important basics of MR physics, pulse sequence designs, and current radiotherapy application, as well as showcase exciting new developments in MRI that can be potentially useful in radiation therapy. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of MR physics and understand the differences between various pulse sequences To review current applications of MRI in radiation therapy.To discuss recent MRI advances for future MRI guided radiation therapy Partly supported by NIH (1R21CA165384).; W. Miller, Research supported in part by Siemens Healthcare; G. Li, My clinical research is in part supported by NIH U54CA137788. I have a collaborative research project with Philips Healthcare.; J. Cai, jing cai.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Livermore Brain: Massive Deep Learning Networks Enabled by High Performance Computing

The proliferation of inexpensive sensor technologies like the ubiquitous digital image sensors has resulted in the collection and sharing of vast amounts of unsorted and unexploited raw data. Companies and governments who are able to collect and make sense of large datasets to help them make better decisions more rapidly will have a competitive advantage in the information era. Machine Learning technologies play a critical role for automating the data understanding process; however, to be maximally effective, useful intermediate representations of the data are required. These representations or “features” are transformations of the raw data into a form where patterns are more easily recognized. Recent breakthroughs in Deep Learning have made it possible to learn these features from large amounts of labeled data. The focus of this project is to develop and extend Deep Learning algorithms for learning features from vast amounts of unlabeled data and to develop the HPC neural network training platform to support the training of massive network models. This LDRD project succeeded in developing new unsupervised feature learning algorithms for images and video and created a scalable neural network training toolkit for HPC. Additionally, this LDRD helped create the world’s largest freely-available image and video dataset supporting open multimedia research and used this dataset for training our deep neural networks. This research helped LLNL capture several work-for-others (WFO) projects, attract new talent, and establish collaborations with leading academic and commercial partners. Finally, this project demonstrated the successful training of the largest unsupervised image neural network using HPC resources and helped establish LLNL leadership at the intersection of Machine Learning and HPC research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1993

Newly available technologies present expanding opportunities for scientific and technical information exchange

The potential for expanded communication among researchers, scholars, and students is supported by growth in the capabilities for electronic communication as well as expanding access to various forms of electronic interchange and computing capabilities. Increased possibilities for information exchange, collegial dialogue, collaboration, and access to remote resources exist as high-speed networks, increasingly powerful workstations, and large, multi-user computational facilities are more frequently linked and more commonly available. Numerous writers speak of the telecommunications revolution and its impact on the development and dissemination of knowledge and learning. One author offers the phrase 'Scholarly skywriting' to represent a new form of scientific communication that he envisions using electronic networks. In the United States (U.S.), researchers associated with the National Science Foundation (NSF) are exploring 'nationwide collaboratories' and 'digital collaboration.' Research supported by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) points to a future where workstations with built-in audio, video monitors, and screen sharing protocols are used to support collaborations with colleagues located throughout the world. Instruments and sensors located worldwide will produce data streams that will be brought together, analyzed, and distributed as new findings. Researchers will have access to machines that can supply domain-specific information in addition to locator and directory assistance. New forms of electronic journals will emerge and provide opportunities for researchers and scientists to exchange information electronically and interactively in a range of structures and formats. Ultimately, the wide-scale use of these technologies in the dissemination of research results and the stimulation of collegial dialogue will change the way we represent and express our knowledge of the world. A new paradigm will evolve--perhaps a truly worldwide 'invisible college.'

Tolzman, Jean M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The role of international collaboration in the United States geologic disposal research program

Abstract. More than a decade ago, the United States disposal program discontinued all research activities focused on the unsaturated fractured tuff formation at Yucca Mountain as the geologic disposal site for spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste. A new research and development (R&D) program was initiated to provide a sound technical basis for alternative disposal options across clay, crystalline, and salt rocks. The goals of this broad program were (and still are) to (1) increase confidence in the robustness of generic disposal concepts, (2) develop the science and engineering tools needed to support disposal concept implementation, and (3) conduct R&D on the direct disposal of existing dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters. Recognizing the benefits of international collaboration toward the common goal of safely and efficiently managing the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the program emphasized international cooperation as an effective strategy for sharing information and knowledge. In a multi-laboratory effort coordinated by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) program established formal and informal cooperation partnerships with several international initiatives and institutions and developed a number of collaborative R&D activities in important research areas, such as engineered barrier integrity, near-field perturbations, radionuclide transport, performance assessment, and methods for characterization and monitoring of engineered and natural barriers. This presentation gives an overview of these R&D activities, with a specific focus on activities that improve our current understanding of the coupled thermal–hydrological–mechanical–chemical (THMC) processes occurring in engineered and natural barriers. We start with a brief review of selected international collaboration initiatives and then describe a few specific collaboration projects. We focus specifically on such studies that use experimental data sets provided by international research cooperation for joint modeling work to increase confidence in performance-relevant predictions of coupled processes. Overall, the focus on international collaboration has allowed deep engagement of US researchers with the international waste management R&D community in terms of best practices, new scientific advances, state-of-the-art simulation tools, new monitoring and performance confirmation approaches, and lessons learned. The joint R&D with international researchers, worldwide sharing of knowledge and experience, and access to relevant data and experiments from a variety of host rocks have helped our researchers to significantly improve their understanding of the current technical basis for disposal in a range of potential host rock environments. International collaboration also provides ample opportunity for training and educating junior staff that are well suited to move the United States disposal research program forward into the next decades, a promising avenue for developing a next-generation workforce of disposal scientists.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fit for Purpose Remote Technology Decommissioning Solutions - 18630

The Magnox Decommissioning Project is actively progressing clean-up and decommissioning of 12 reactor sites across England, Scotland and Wales. Funded and directed by the United Kingdom's Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) and managed by the Cavendish Fluor Partnership (CFP), the Magnox Decommissioning Project introduces a wide range of radiological and industrial hazards warranting deployment of remote technologies to safely de-inventory, decontaminate and decommission a vast array of nuclear facilities. The Magnox Decommissioning Project encompasses 22 former Magnox nuclear power production reactors across 10 reactor sites and five research/test reactors at two former research sites. Decommissioning activities have been underway at some sites for nearly 20 years with early focus on retrieving and stabilising wastes and draining and stabilising spent fuel ponds. The Magnox decommissioning strategy invokes a programme perspective to drive consistency in tackling similar decommissioning and waste challenges across multiple sites. Programme central teams have worked with technology suppliers to foster learning from industry experience to develop and deploy tooling and robotics. The programme approach has also facilitated learning from one site to the next. In many cases, this central programme approach has promoted an evolution of technologies resulting in optimisation of simple remote tooling. In other instances, collaboration with suppliers is producing state-of-the-art technologies to tackle more unique challenges including, most recently, early demonstration of laser cutting for reactor vessel dismantling. This paper will outline the programme management approach and the scalable optioneering process Magnox employs to select the engineered controls and technologies used in decommissioning and waste management activities. It will provide an overview of the broad range of remote tooling and robotics deployed across the 12 Magnox sites by exploring some specific examples. Lastly, the paper will summarise key lessons learned in the now extensive history of selecting and using remote technologies to decommission Magnox nuclear facilities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Privacy-Preserving Knowledge Transfer with Bootstrap Aggregation of Teacher Ensembles

There is a need to transfer knowledge among institutions and organizations to save effort in annotation and labeling or in enhancing task performance. However, knowledge transfer is difficult because of restrictions that are in place to ensure data security and privacy. Institutions are not allowed to exchange data or perform any activity that may expose personal information. With the leverage of a differential privacy algorithm in a high-performance computing environment, we propose a new training protocol, Bootstrap Aggregation of Teacher Ensembles (BATE), which is applicable to various types of machine learning models. The BATE algorithm is based on and provides enhancements to the PATE algorithm, maintaining competitive task performance scores on complex datasets with underrepresented class labels.We conducted a proof-of-the-concept study of the information extraction from cancer pathology report data from four cancer registries and performed comparisons between four scenarios: no collaboration, no privacy-preserving collaboration, the PATE algorithm, and the proposed BATE algorithm. The results showed that the BATE algorithm maintained competitive macro-averaged F1 scores, demonstrating that the suggested algorithm is an effective yet privacy-preserving method for machine learning and deep learning solutions.

Yoon, Hong-Jun↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advances in Machine and Deep Learning for Modeling and Real-time Detection of Multi-Messenger Sources

We live in momentous times. The science community is empowered with an arsenal of cosmic messengers to study the universe in unprecedented detail. Gravitational waves, electromagnetic waves, neutrinos, and cosmic rays cover a wide range of wavelengths and timescales. Combining and processing these datasets that vary in volume, speed, and dimensionality requires new modes of instrument coordination, funding, and international collaboration with a specialized human and technological infrastructure. In tandem with the advent of large-scale scientific facilities, the last decade has experienced an unprecedented transformation in computing and signal-processing algorithms. The combination of graphics processing units, deep learning, and the availability of open source, high-quality datasets has powered the rise of artificial intelligence. This digital revolution now powers a multibillion dollar industry, with far-reaching implications in technology and society. In this chapter, we describe pioneering efforts to adapt artificial intelligence algorithms to address computational grand challenges in multi-messenger astrophysics. We review the rapid evolution of these disruptive algorithms, from the first class of algorithms introduced in early 2017 to the sophisticated algorithms that now incorporate domain expertise in their architectural design and optimization schemes. We discuss the importance of scientific visualization and extreme-scale computing in reducing time-to-insight and obtaining new knowledge from the interplay between models and data.

Artificial Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding EV Charging Pain Points Through Deep Learning Analysis

Current and potential electric vehicle (EV) owners express concerns about the charging infrastructure, mentioning non-functional chargers, prolonged charging times, inconvenient charger locations, long wait times, and high costs as major barriers. Addressing these issues often requires analyzing actual vehicle charging data, which is typically proprietary and inconsistent due to diverse standards and protocols. To understand and improve the EV charging experience, customer reviews are typically used to identify common customer pain points (CPPs). However, there is not a comprehensive method to map customer reviews to a standardized set of CPPs. In collaboration with the National Charging Experience (ChargeX) Consortium, this study bridges these gaps by proposing a Systematic Categorization and Analysis of Large-scale EV-charging Reviews (SCALER) framework. SCALER is an integrated, deep learning framework that segments, actively labels, analyzes, and classifies EV charging customer reviews into six CPP categories. To test its effectiveness, we used SCALER to analyze over 72,000 reviews from customers charging various EV models on different networks across the United States. SCALER achieves a classification accuracy of 92.5%, with an F1 score exceeding 85.7%. By demonstrating real-world applications of SCALER, we enhance the industry’s ability to understand and address CPPs to improve the EV charging experience.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

NNMC–DP Continuing Education Summary [Slides]

DP technicians voiced a desire for more development and learning opportunities. DP management and technician partners identified the opportunity to expand the knowledge of the technicians through employee development to strengthen the collaboration.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Use of Stable Mercury Isotopes to Assess Mercury and Methylmercury Transformation and Transport across Critical Interfaces from the Molecular to the Watershed Scale (Final Report)

This project titled “Use of Stable Mercury Isotopes to Assess Mercury and Methylmercury Transformation and Transport across Critical Interfaces from the Molecular to the Watershed Scale” represents a collaborative effort between the University of Michigan (Jason Demers, PI) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Scott Brooks, co-I). Much has been learned about mercury (Hg) cycling in stream ecosystems, and East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in particular, through decades of previous research. Nevertheless, some of the most fundamental questions regarding the sources of bioavailable Hg and its transformation to toxic methylmercury (MeHg) have remained unanswered. These fundamental questions include: (1) what are the sources and biogeochemical processes that lead to the input of dissolved Hg to stream water across critical subsurface interfaces within stream ecosystems, and EFPC in particular? and (2) what are the sources and biogeochemical processes that control the production and fate of bioaccumulative MeHg within stream ecosystems, and in EFPC in particular? To address these fundamental questions, our project aimed to couple laboratory experiments and field observations, both utilizing natural abundance Hg stable isotope techniques, to identify the processes responsible for generating mobile, bioavailable dissolved Hg from recalcitrant legacy sources within critical subsurface zones (e.g., streambed hyporheic zone, riparian floodplain subsurface). We used the isotopic signature of this bioavailable dissolved Hg to track its mobilization across these critical interfaces in order to link diffuse subsurface sources of dissolved Hg with increases in surface water dissolved Hg flux measured at the watershed scale. Additionally, our research aimed to determine the isotopic composition of MeHg within these same critical subsurface zones. We directly assessed the isotopic composition of MeHg within biota in order to gain insight into which subsurface sources of inorganic Hg and toxic MeHg are available for bioaccumulation within the EFPC ecosystem. Net fluxes of dissolved Hg along the flow path of EFPC were shown to vary spatially and temporally. In the Upper EFPC, within the Y12 boundary, stream water flux of dissolved Hg consistently decreased between the outfall and the downstream boundary of Y12 (57% ± 29%, 1SD). Within the Upper EFPC, an assessment of Hg isotopic composition suggested that losses were strongly reaction-driven, although isotopic diagnostics did not conform to any known processes. Downstream of Y12, in the upper reach of the Lower EFPC, dissolved Hg fluxes tended to increase during the dormant season (net gain of 11-120%), and decrease during the growing season (net loss of 23% +/- 18%, 1SD). In the downstream-most reach of Lower EFPC, dissolved Hg fluxes increased by 12-108% in 9 out of 10 monthly assessments. Overall, diffuse fluxes from the non-Y12 watershed accounted for 34% (+/- 17%, 1SD) of all dissolved Hg exported during base flow. Within Lower EFPC, an assessment of Hg isotopic composition was consistent with the contribution of diffuse Hg inputs from high-concentration hotspots within riparian floodplains and streambed hyporheic pore water. To investigate remobilization of recalcitrant Hg from legacy sediment sources, we developed procedures that coupled isotopic analysis with sequential extractions of streambed sediment. We found that the proportion of weakly-bound Hg within EFPC streambed sediment was relatively small, but could still account for a large proportion of the annual flux of dissolved Hg from EFPC. These sequential extractions also showed that this weakly-bound Hg fraction could be replenished from the much larger fraction of recalcitrant Hg in sediment. The isotopic composition of these weakly-bound and remobilized recalcitrant Hg fractions within the sediment was consistent with high-concentration dissolved Hg hotspots within hyporheic pore water. Thus, this research provided novel evidence that legacy mercury sources within streambed sediment could provide an ongoing contribution of dissolved Hg to surface waters. Finally, we developed new methods for the direct determination of the MeHg isotopic composition of organisms, which allowed a more direct evaluation of inorganic Hg and MeHg sources accumulating in the food web. We found that fish and aquatic invertebrates in both EFPC and a regional background site obtained inorganic Hg and MeHg from multiple isotopically distinct sources, including sediment, suspended particulates, and periphyton. Photodemethylation was found to be an important reaction influencing MeHg dynamics at both sites. However, the balance of microbial methylation and demethylation processes differed between the two streams, with fractionation resulting from methylation and demethylation processes being relatively in balance within the regional background site, whereas microbial methylation appeared to be dominant over microbial demethylation within the EFPC ecosystem. Broadly, the application of Hg isotopic analysis in this study led to numerous novel insights regarding the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in stream ecosystems. This research project promoted the development of two new approaches, including the coupling of sequential extractions with Hg isotopic analysis to assess remobilization of recalcitrant Hg within sediments, and a new method for the isotopic analysis of MeHg isolated from environmental samples. Both of these efforts represent advances in capacity for the field of mercury isotopic analysis and environmental assessment. Overall, this study demonstrates that the application of Hg stable isotope techniques continues to provide new insights into the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in complex aquatic environments, both within the EFPC and beyond.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2008

Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Control on Return from ISS

Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Control on Return from ISS (CCISS) will study the effects of long-duration spaceflight on crew members' heart functions and their blood vessels that supply the brain. Learning more about the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular systems could lead to specific countermeasures that might better protect future space travelers. This experiment is collaborative with the Canadian Space Agency.

Hughson, Richard Lee↗
NASA NTRS2016

Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling

Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.

Model ensembles↗