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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk

Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DECADE cosmic shear project III: validation of analysis pipeline using spatially inhomogeneous data

We present the pipeline for the cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog consisting of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. The catalog derives from a large number of disparate observing programs and is therefore more inhomogeneous across the sky compared to existing lensing surveys. First, we use simulated data-vectors to show the sensitivity of our constraints to different analysis choices in our inference pipeline, including sensitivity to residual systematics. Next we use simulations to validate our covariance modeling for inhomogeneous datasets. Finally, we show that our choices in the end-to-end cosmic shear pipeline are robust against inhomogeneities in the survey, by extracting relative shifts in the cosmology constraints across different subsets of the footprint/catalog and showing they are all consistent within 1σ to 2σ. This is done for forty-six subsets of the data and is carried out in a fully consistent manner: for each subset of the data, we re-derive the photometric redshift estimates, shear calibrations, survey transfer functions, the data vector, measurement covariance, and finally, the cosmological constraints. Our results show that existing analysis methods for weak lensing cosmology can be fairly resilient towards inhomogeneous datasets. This also motivates exploring a wider range of image data for pursuing such cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

From Images to Dark Matter: End-to-end Inference of Substructure from Hundreds of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Abstract Constraining the distribution of small-scale structure in our universe allows us to probe alternatives to the cold dark matter paradigm. Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique window into small dark matter halos (<10 10 M ⊙ ) because these halos impart a gravitational lensing signal even if they do not host luminous galaxies. We create large data sets of strong lensing images with realistic low-mass halos, Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observational effects, and galaxy light from HST’s COSMOS field. Using a simulation-based inference pipeline, we train a neural posterior estimator of the subhalo mass function (SHMF) and place constraints on populations of lenses generated using a separate set of galaxy sources. We find that by combining our network with a hierarchical inference framework, we can both reliably infer the SHMF across a variety of configurations and scale efficiently to populations with hundreds of lenses. By conducting precise inference on large and complex simulated data sets, our method lays a foundation for extracting dark matter constraints from the next generation of wide-field optical imaging surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Approach to Characterizing Spatial Aspects of Image System Blur

In imaging applications, such as X-ray radiography, the experimental system setup and data capture process introduce system blur and distortion. In images taken with thick scintillators, a spatially varying system blur is observed, requiring a nonstandard approach to blur and distortion estimation and removal. We demonstrate an approach to estimation of local point spread functions using checkerboard radiographs collected at the Naval Research Laboratory and extend that into a map defining the kernel over the camera field of view.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpreting Primal-Dual Algorithms for Constrained Multiagent Reinforcement Learning

Constrained multiagent reinforcement learning (C-MARL) is gaining importance as MARL algorithms find new applications in real-world systems ranging from energy systems to drone swarms. Most C-MARL algorithms use a primal-dual approach to enforce constraints through a penalty function added to the reward. In this paper, we study the structural effects of this penalty term on the MARL problem. First, we show that the standard practice of using the constraint function as the penalty leads to a weak notion of safety. However, by making simple modifications to the penalty term, we can enforce meaningful probabilistic (chance and conditional value at risk) constraints. Second, we quantify the effect of the penalty term on the value function, uncovering an improved value estimation procedure. We use these insights to propose a constrained multiagent advantage actor critic (C-MAA2C) algorithm. Simulations in a simple constrained multiagent environment affirm that our reinterpretation of the primal-dual method in terms of probabilistic constraints is effective, and that our proposed value estimate accelerates convergence to a safe joint policy.

chance constraints↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparative critical mass calculations for NNL and ENDF/B-VIII.0 - Zirconium hydride thermal neutron scattering laws

Zirconium hydride (ZrH{sub x}) is a moderator material for TRIGA reactors and historical space reactor systems, such as SNAP-10A. Thermal neutron scattering laws (TSL) for two phases of this material, δ and ε, have been previously evaluated by Naval Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) and submitted to the National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC) for inclusion in the US national ENDF/B-VIII.1 nuclear data library. In contrast to the current ENDF/B-VIII.0 TSL evaluations, which consider only a single phase, the new evaluations are derived from separate ab initio calculations for both phases and include coherent elastic effects of the zirconium sublattice. To estimate the impact of these changes to the TSL evaluation of this material, comparative critical mass calculations were performed with MC21 for homogenous mixtures of high-enriched uranium (HEU) and ZrH{sub x} in bare and water reflected sphere configurations. These calculations yield an impact on the estimated critical mass as a function of {sup 235}U loading density with maximum differences as large as 1% - 5% for over-moderated thermal spectrum systems. Consequently, the NNL TSL evaluations are anticipated to have a small impact on criticality calculations of thermal reactor systems regardless of the material phase. Nevertheless, characteristic differences exist in the predicted thermal spectra as function of energy for the two sets of TSL evaluations, which are attributed to difference in the underlying phonon density of states of hydrogen bound in ZrH{sub x}. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computing the Critical Temperature of the Affine-Transformed $D=3$ Ising Model Using Masked Autoregressive Flow

The simple Ising model provides a rich environment to build and study lattice field theories. As part of an ongoing project to construct a conformal field theory (CFT) on an arbitrarily curved manifold, in this work we develop methods to measure the critical temperature $β_c$ of the affine-transformed Ising model on the face-centered cubic (FCC) lattice. The main challenge in this endeavor is finding a computationally efficient and accurate method of interpolating and extrapolating Monte Carlo observables with respect to coupling coefficients and temperature. Herein, we compare two such methods. A traditional statistical approach uses the multiple histogram (MH) method, while a newer machine learning approach uses a masked autoregressive flow (MAF) to estimate the underlying probability density function of a set of observables. While the MH method is specifically designed to interpolate and extrapolate Monte Carlo observables, we find that MAF is a viable alternative for measuring $β_c$ with a computational cost that scales more favorably. Furthermore, we comment on additional advantages of MAF relevant to our work, such as extrapolating in system volume.

Svenson, Kai [Texas U.]↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling golden eagle‐vehicle collisions to design mitigation strategies

ABSTRACT The incidental take of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) as a result of wind energy development requires some form of compensatory mitigation. Although several options have been proposed, only one has been formerly accepted and implemented, and the lack of options can limit the permit process for wind facilities. We developed a model to estimate numbers of golden eagles that die when struck by vehicles when eagles scavenge road kill to evaluate removal of road‐killed carcasses as an additional mitigation option. Our model estimates vehicle collision rates as a function of eagle densities, road traffic volume, and animal carcass abundance at the scale of a Wyoming, USA, county during fall‐winter, and quantifies the effects of different mitigation strategies, including estimates of uncertainty. We evaluated the plausibility of our model estimates by predicting mortality rates for each county in Wyoming and comparing overall state mortality to current estimates of mortality using derived estimates from expert judgment. We also developed a context‐dependent analysis of potential mitigation credits controlling for carcass number, traffic volume, and background carcass removals. We found that mitigation credit should be highest in areas with greatest number of carcasses. Collision mitigation is a potentially useful addition to the mitigation toolbox for wind energy development or other activities that need to offset predicted golden eagle mortality and satisfy incidental take permit requirements. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Lonsdorf, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Novel Data-based Stochastic Distribution Control for Non-Gaussian Stochastic Systems

In this note, we present a novel data-based approach to investigate the non-Gaussian stochastic distribution control problem. As the motivation of this note, the existing methods have been summarised regarding to the drawbacks, for example, neural network weights training for unknown stochastic distribution and so on. To overcome these disadvantages, a new transformation for dynamic probability density function is given by kernel density estimation using interpolation. Based upon this transformation, a representative model has been developed while the stochastic distribution control problem has been transformed into an optimisation problem. Then, data-based direct optimisation and identification-based indirect optimisation have been proposed. In addition, the convergences of the presented algorithms are analysed and the effectiveness of these algorithms has been evaluated by numerical examples. In summary, the contributions of this note are as follows: 1) a new data-based probability density function transformation is given; 2) the optimisation algorithms are given based on the presented model; and 3) a new research framework is demonstrated as the potential extensions to the existing stochastic distribution control.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Software defined network inference with evolutionary optimal observation matrices

A key requirement for network management is the accurate and reliable monitoring of relevant network characteristics. In today's large-scale networks, this is a challenging task due to the scarcity of network measurement resources and the hard constraints that this imposes. Here, this paper proposes a new framework, called SNIPER, which leverages the flexibility provided by Software-Defined Networking (SDN) to design the optimal observation or measurement matrix that can lead to the best achievable estimation accuracy using Matrix Completion (MC) techniques. To cope with the complexity of designing large-scale optimal observation matrices, we use the Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms (EOA) which directly target the ultimate estimation accuracy as the optimization objective function. We evaluate the performance of SNIPER using both synthetic and real network measurement traces from different network topologies and by considering two main applications for per-flow size and delay estimations. Our results show that SNIPER can be applied to a variety of network performance measurements under hard resource constraints. For example, by measuring only 8.8% of all per-flow path delays in Harvard network [1], congested paths can be detected with probability of 0.94. Finally, to demonstrate the feasibility of our framework, we also have implemented a prototype of SNIPER in Mininet.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mitigation of DESI fiber assignment incompleteness effect on two-point clustering with small angular scale truncated estimators

We present a method to mitigate the effects of fiber assignment incompleteness in two-point power spectrum and correlation function measurements from galaxy spectroscopic surveys, by truncating small angular scales from estimators. We derive the corresponding modified correlation function and power spectrum windows to account for the small angular scale truncation in the theory prediction. We validate this approach on simulations reproducing the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) with and without fiber assignment. We show that we recover unbiased cosmological constraints using small angular scale truncated estimators from simulations with fiber assignment incompleteness, with respect to standard estimators from complete simulations. Additionally, we present an approach to remove the sensitivity of the fits to high k modes in the theoretical power spectrum, by applying a transformation to the data vector and window matrix. We find that our method efficiently mitigates the effect of fiber assignment incompleteness in two-point correlation function and power spectrum measurements, at low computational cost and with little statistical loss.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real-space local self-motion of protonated and deuterated water

Here, we report on the self-part of the Van Hove correlation function, the correlation function describing the dynamics of a single molecule, of water and deuterated water. The correlation function is determined by transforming inelastic scattering spectra of neutrons or x rays over a wide range of momentum transfer Q and energy transfer E to space R and time t. The short-range diffusivity is estimated from the Van Hove correlation function in the framework of the Gaussian approximation. The diffusivity has been found to be different from the long-range macroscopic diffusivity, providing information about local atomic dynamics.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Metal-insulator transition and magnetism of SU(3) fermions in the square lattice

We study the SU(3) symmetric Fermi-Hubbard model (FHM) in the square lattice at 1/3-filling using numerically exact determinant quantum Monte Carlo and numerical linked-cluster expansion techniques. We present the different regimes of the model in the T–U plane, which are characterized by local and short-range correlations, and capture signatures of the metal-insulator transition and magnetic crossovers. These signatures are detected as the temperature scales characterizing the rise of the compressibility, and an interaction-dependent change in the sign of the diagonal spin-spin correlation function. The analysis of the compressibility estimates the location of the metal-insulator quantum critical point at U c /t ~ 6, and provides a temperature scale for observing Mott physics at finite T. Furthermore, from the analysis of the spin-spin correlation function we observe that for U/t ≳ 6 and T ~ J = 4⁢t 2 /U there is a development of a short-range two-sublattice (2SL) antiferromagnetic structure, as well as an emerging three-sublattice (3SL) antiferromagnetic structure as the temperature is lowered below T/J ≲ 0.57. This crossover from 2SL to 3SL magnetic ordering agrees with Heisenberg limit predictions, and has observable effects on the density of on-site pairs. Finally, we describe how the features of the regimes in the T–U plane can be explored with alkaline-earth-like atoms in optical lattices with currently achieved experimental techniques and temperatures. Furthermore, the results discussed in this paper provide a starting point for the exploration of the SU(3) FHM upon doping.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Photon Radiation Scatter from Heterogeneous Shields using Green's Functions

The effect of shielding on ionizing photon radiation can be estimated using radiation transport simulations. This report covers the methodology and implementation of using Green's Functions to pre-compute this effect, which allows the radiation field exiting a variety of shielding configurations to be quickly computed. It also covers a weighting function that makes a relatively small pre-computed library applicable to a large variety of heterogeneous shields. The method enables rapid computation of the intensity versus energy for scattered radiation exiting a variety of shield materials and thicknesses without running a full transport simulation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2018

On estimating the curvature attributes and strain invariants of deformed surface through radial basis functions

Numerical methods in approximation of derivatives on regular or irregular gridded and scattered data points are of significance in the study of numerous problems in engineering and geoscience. A mathematically accurate and stable method is assessed to compute the differential quantities, while being flexible and easy to implement. Strain-invariant parameters in deformation analysis and curvature attributes in geometrical analysis of approximated surfaces are independent quantities which could be derived numerically through radial basis functions (RBFs) for scattered data points. Approximation of a function or its derivatives through RBFs is highly correlated to its shape parameter which depends on the number and distribution of the particles on the support domain. A procedure to find the optimal shape parameter for RBFs in the influence domain of each nodal point together with the presentation of a manner of calculating the curvature attributes and strain parameters through Gaussian RBFs is proposed here. Results indicate a significant improvement in the approximation accuracy of strain parameters and curvature attributes, while this approximation is more stable when RBFs with optimal shape parameter are implemented rather than the traditional moving least squares.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust and scalable uncertainty estimation with conformal prediction for machine-learned interatomic potentials

Abstract Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions. Established a-posteriori UQ methods, including ensemble methods, the dropout method, the delta method, and various heuristic distance metrics, have limitations such as being computationally challenging for large models due to model re-training. In addition, the uncertainty estimates are often not rigorously calibrated. In this work, we propose combining the distribution-free UQ method, known as conformal prediction (CP), with the distances in the neural network’s latent space to estimate the uncertainty of energies predicted by neural network force fields. We evaluate this method (CP+latent) along with other UQ methods on two essential aspects, calibration, and sharpness, and find this method to be both calibrated and sharp under the assumption of independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.) data. We show that the method is relatively insensitive to hyperparameters selected, and test the limitations of the method when the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Finally, we demonstrate that this method can be readily applied to trained neural network force fields with traditional and graph neural network architectures to obtain estimates of uncertainty with low computational costs on a training dataset of 1 million images to showcase its scalability and portability. Incorporating the CP method with latent distances offers a calibrated, sharp and efficient strategy to estimate the uncertainty of neural network force fields. In addition, the CP approach can also function as a promising strategy for calibrating uncertainty estimated by other approaches.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Intra-day variability of three Seyfert galaxies measured with XMM-Newton

We analyze the variability of three Seyfert galaxies on intra-day timescales. We have analyzed in a uniform manner the 38 longest (>30 ks) observations made for NGC 4051, MCG-06–30–15 and NGC 4151 by XMM-Newton between 2000 and 2015. The nuclei were quite active during essentially all of these observations and the overall X-ray fluxes (0.3–10 keV) varied by an order of magnitude. Most of the observations do appear to show characteristic timescales, estimated through their auto-correlation functions, ranging between ~2.9 ks and ~45.3 ks. The hard (2–10 keV) and soft (0.3–2.0 keV) bands are very well correlated but consideration of their hardness ratios shows that the sources typically soften during flares. We also provide new estimates of the central black hole masses for these three AGNs that support the hypothesis that Narrow Line Seyfert 1 galaxies have relatively small central black holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗