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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Variations in Bedrock and Vegetation Cover Modulate Subsurface Water Flow Dynamics of a Mountainous Hillslope

Abstract Predicting the hydrological response of watersheds to climate disturbances requires a detailed understanding of the processes connecting hillslopes and streams. Using a network of soil moisture and temperature sensors, electrical resistivity tomography monitoring, and a weather station we assess the above and below‐ground processes driving the hydrological response of a hillslope during snowmelt and summer monsoon. The transect covers bedrock and vegetation gradients, with a steep upper part characterized by shallow bedrock, and gentle lower part underlain by colluvium. The main vegetation cover is conifers on the upper, and grass and veratrum on the lower part. Combined with a simplified hydrological model, we show that the thin soil layer of the steep slope acts as a preferential flow path, leading to mostly shallow lateral flow, interrupted by vertical flow, mostly at tree locations, and likely facilitated by flow along fractures and roots. Vertical flow and upstream‐driven groundwater dynamics are prevailing at the colluvium, presenting a very different hydrological behavior compared to the upper part. These results show that subsurface structure and features have a strong control on the hydrological response of a hillslope and that those can create considerably varying hydrological dynamics across small spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Creating high-precision reference gas standards of 85Kr for groundwater age-dating

Absolute gas counting (AGC) was applied to two gas blends of 85Kr in argon-methane (P10) counting gas to establish a high-precision specific activity (Bq/cm3) reference value for characterizing 85Kr detection efficiency for groundwater age dating measurements. The AGC or length-compensated technique has been utilized by the metrology community for decades and is an accepted method for developing radioactive gas standards. The AGC capability at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) uses a set of nine unequal-length proportional counters with precisely-measured internal volumes, and a gas loading system with high-precision pressure and temperature sensors. A series of AGC measurements were collected at multiple pressures to determine the inverse pressure relationship (1/P) for 85Kr and define a wall-effect correction that accounts for events decaying into the detector wall and not depositing sufficient energy in the gas to be detected. In addition to the wall-effect, two additional corrections were evaluated and are discussed in detail. Specifically, the threshold effect which accounts for events deposited below the analysis threshold and a detection efficiency as a function of detector volume effect that was observed during analysis. A robust uncertainty model was developed using the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM) approach. The combination of carefully scrutinized correction factors, precise measurements of pressure, temperature and detector volume, and robust counting statistics resulted in the determination of high-precision specific activity values with 0.50% or less total combined uncertainty for two Kr-in-P10 reference gas standards (KP10) that will enable new groundwater age-dating measurements at PNNL.

Kr-85↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrology in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: From Fragmentation to Coherent Terrestrial Hydrosphere Science

The rapid rise of machine learning (ML) in hydrology has prompted debate about the discipline's scientific relevance. While ML often outperforms traditional models in streamflow prediction, we argue that this reflects a deeper limitation: persistent fragmentation of hydrological science itself. Narrow focus on isolated components has hindered the development of coherent, scale‐relevant understanding of the integrated terrestrial hydrosphere. This is illustrated, for example, by widely divergent estimates of groundwater–streamflow interactions and of water balance‐implied ongoing storage changes. We argue that hydrology's future lies not in choosing between ML and physics, but in integrating data‐driven and process‐based approaches to advance consistent, realistic, and societally relevant understanding of the terrestrial hydrosphere and its multifaceted roles in the Earth System.

Painter, Scott L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript on residence time distribution simulation in two 10-kilometer long river sections

This data package is associated with the publication “On the Transferability of Residence Time Distributions in Two 10-km Long River Sections with Similar Hydromorphic Units” submitted to the Journal of Hydrology (Bao et al. 2024).Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) at the stream-groundwater interface, along with their residence time distributions (RTDs) in the subsurface, is crucial for managing water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridors. However, directly simulating high-spatial resolution HEFs and RTDs can be a time-consuming process, particularly for watershed-scale modeling. Efficient surrogate models that link RTDs to hydromorphic units (HUs) may serve as alternatives for simulating RTDs in large-scale models. One common concern with these surrogate models, however, is the transferability of the relationship between the RTDs and HUs from one river corridor to another. To address this, we evaluated the HEFs and the resulting RTD-HU relationships for two 10-kilometer-long river corridors along the Columbia River, using a one-way coupled three-dimensional transient surface-subsurface water transport modeling framework that we previously developed. Applying this framework to the two river corridors with similar HUs allows for quantitative comparisons of HEFs and RTDs using both statistical tests and machine learning classification models. This data package includes the model inputs files and the simulation results data. This data package contains 10 folders. The modeling simulation results data are in the folders 100H_pt_data and 300area_pt_data, for the study domain Hanford 100H and 300 area respectively. The remaining eight folders contain the scripts and data to generate the manuscript figures. The file-level metadata file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _flmd.csv) includes a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _dd.csv) includes column header definitions and units of all tabular files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interplay of changing irrigation technologies and water reuse: example from the upper Snake River basin, Idaho, USA

Abstract. Careful allotment of water resources for irrigation is critical for ensuring the resiliency of agriculture in semiarid regions, and modernizing irrigation technology to minimize inefficient water losses is an important tool for farmers and agricultural economies. While modernizing irrigation technology can achieve reductions in the nonbeneficial use of water, such as bare soil evaporation and nonconsumptive losses, water returned to the landscape is also reduced, often eliminating flow paths that other users rely on. In basins using a combination of surface and groundwater, replenishing aquifer storage by the managed aquifer recharge (MAR) of seasonally available water can mitigate the aquifer drawdown that results from reduced recharge when irrigation efficiency is improved. We examine the effects of MAR on the system-scale efficiency of modernizing irrigation technology and the resulting changes in the reuse of nonconsumptive losses, using a macroscale hydrologic model applied to the semiarid upper Snake River basin (USRB) of western Wyoming and southern Idaho, USA. Irrigation technologies were represented explicitly in the model, and available data informed baseline parameterizations of the irrigation technology. A suite of parameterizations were simulated that updated the existing technologies to be more efficient, both with and without sufficient MAR to cause a stabilization of the aquifer at the present-day head. As expected, simulated changes in irrigation technology resulted in greater downstream export of pristine water and a higher rate of aquifer drawdown when MAR was not simulated. Under current water use and cropping patterns, we were not able to simulate aquifer stabilization and maintain discharge downstream at any level of irrigation efficiency. We found support for the hypothesis that, as efficiency improves, less MAR is required to maintain a stable aquifer than when return flows are reduced due to increased efficiency. To evaluate the hypothesis, we defined the management benefit as a metric that compared the difference between the change in irrigation's net recharge and the change in MAR required as irrigation technology became more efficient. The metric generally indicated that less MAR was needed than net recharge was lost, but only for the most efficient case did the management benefit exceed the MAR needed at the baseline to stabilize the aquifer. Increasing efficiency of irrigation technology reduced the reuse of the gross irrigation derived from prior nonconsumptive losses, but simulating MAR increased reuse for a given parameterization, leading to higher effective irrigation efficiency. We find that local groundwater storage that users depend on is generally more sensitive to management decisions than downstream flows, and the drawdown of the aquifer without MAR always exceeded any decrease in discharge induced by MAR. Improving resource sufficiency in semiarid systems like the USRB will require an array of solutions that will need to balance benefits to local and downstream users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

QA/QC-ed Groundwater Level Time Series in PLM-1 and PLM-6 Monitoring Wells, East River, Colorado (2016-2022)

This data set contains QA/QC-ed (Quality Assurance and Quality Control) water level data for the PLM1 and PLM6 wells. PLM1 and PLM6 are location identifiers used by the Watershed Function SFA project for two groundwater monitoring wells along an elevation gradient located along the lower montane life zone of a hillslope near the Pumphouse location at the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. These wells are used to monitor subsurface water and carbon inventories and fluxes, and to determine the seasonally dependent flow of groundwater under the PLM hillslope. The downslope flow of groundwater in combination with data on groundwater chemistry (see related references) can be used to estimate rates of solute export from the hillslope to the floodplain and river. QA/QC analysis of measured groundwater levels in monitoring wells PLM-1 and PLM-6 included identification and flagging of duplicated values of timestamps, gap filling of missing timestamps and water levels, removal of abnormal/bad and outliers of measured water levels. The QA/QC analysis also tested the application of different QA/QC methods and the development of regular (5-minute, 1-hour, and 1-day) time series datasets, which can serve as a benchmark for testing other QA/QC techniques, and will be applicable for ecohydrological modeling. The package includes a Readme file, one R code file used to perform QA/QC, a series of 8 data csv files (six QA/QC-ed regular time series datasets of varying intervals (5-min, 1-hr, 1-day) and two files with QA/QC flagging of original data), and three files for the reporting format adoption of this dataset (InstallationMethods, file level metadata (flmd), and data dictionary (dd) files).QA/QC-ed data herein were derived from the original/raw data publication available at Williams et al., 2020 (DOI: 10.15485/1818367). For more information about running R code file (10.15485_1866836_QAQC_PLM1_PLM6.R) to reproduce QA/QC output files, see README (QAQC_PLM_readme.docx). This dataset replaces the previously published raw data time series, and is the final groundwater data product for the PLM wells in the East River. Complete metadata information on the PLM1 and PLM6 wells are available in a related dataset on ESS-DIVE: Varadharajan C, et al (2022). https://doi.org/10.15485/1660962. These data products are part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area collection effort to further scientific understanding of biogeochemical dynamics from genome to watershed scales. 2022/09/09 Update: Converted data files using ESS-DIVE’s Hydrological Monitoring Reporting Format. With the adoption of this reporting format, the addition of three new files (v1_20220909_flmd.csv, V1_20220909_dd.csv, and InstallationMethods.csv) were added. The file-level metadata file (v1_20220909_flmd.csv) contains information specific to the files contained within the dataset. The data dictionary file (v1_20220909_dd.csv) contains definitions of column headers and other terms across the dataset. The installation methods file (InstallationMethods.csv) contains a description of methods associated with installation and deployment at PLM1 and PLM6 wells. Additionally, eight data files were re-formatted to follow the reporting format guidance (er_plm1_waterlevel_2016-2020.csv, er_plm1_waterlevel_1-hour_2016-2020.csv, er_plm1_waterlevel_daily_2016-2020.csv, QA_PLM1_Flagging.csv, er_plm6_waterlevel_2016-2020.csv, er_plm6_waterlevel_1-hour_2016-2020.csv, er_plm6_waterlevel_daily_2016-2020.csv, QA_PLM6_Flagging.csv). The major changes to the data files include the addition of header_rows above the data containing metadata about the particular well, units, and sensor description. 2023/01/18 Update: Dataset updated to include additional QA/QC-ed water level data up until 2022-10-12 for ER-PLM1 and 2022-10-13 for ER-PLM6. Reporting format specific files (v2_20230118_flmd.csv, v2_20230118_dd.csv, v2_20230118_InstallationMethods.csv) were updated to reflect the additional data. R code file (QAQC_PLM1_PLM6.R) was added to replace the previously uploaded HTML files to enable execution of the associated code. R code file (QAQC_PLM1_PLM6.R) and ReadMe file (QAQC_PLM_readme.docx) were revised to clarify where original data was retrieved from and to remove local file paths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiphysics modeling of a critical dual-purpose canister in a saturated geological repository

Dual purpose dry cask storage canisters for spent nuclear fuel are designed for storage and transportation, but are not licensed for permanent disposal in a geological repository. If dual purpose canisters were to be used to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a geological repository, they would be expected to eventually breach and be flooded with groundwater, and it is shown that some fraction of these canisters will achieve criticality. In order to evaluate the consequences of canisters going critical in a repository, an initial capability has been developed for estimating the quasi-static power level of a critical canister using loosely coupled multiphysics simulations. The low power level in a critical canister enables coupling through precomputed physics proxies. This calculated power level is then used to compute the change in the critical canister’s isotopic inventory as a function of time. Three as-loaded canisters are evaluated and two were found to have power levels below 4 kW, with a modest effect on the radiological inventory over time. This effort also shows that although some DPCs will have extremely peaked power shapes, the relatively low power and long-time scales result in relatively homogenized thermohydraulic properties in the water within the DPC.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Removal of iodine (I- and IO3-) from aqueous solutions using CoAl and NiAl layered double hydroxides

The treatment of radioactive iodine released from nuclear power plants and radiological waste disposal sites is of great concern due to its high mobility and toxicity. In particular, iodide (I-) and iodate (IO3-) are the major iodine species of concern under various pHs and groundwater conditions. Herein, CoAl and NiAl layered double hydroxides (LDHs) were synthesized by a hydrothermal method and investigated to identify the removal mechanisms and efficiencies of both I- and IO3-. Both CoAl and NiAl LDHs exhibited rapid iodine removal processes within 20 min, following the pseudo-second-order model via ion-exchange with parent NO3- anion in the LDHs. The CoAl LDH’s maximum sorption capacities for I- and IO3- were about 1.67 and 2.16 mmol g-1, respectively, whereas for the NiAl LDH, these were about 2.10 and 2.26 mmol g-1, and they followed the Langmuir isotherm model. Interestingly, both the CoAl and NiAl LDHs showed a preferential ion-exchange affinity for IO3- over I-, which was attributed to the structural similarity of the IO3- and NO3- as well as new formation of secondary Co(or Ni)(IO3)2·2H2O phases. In addition, a desorption study indicated that the selectivity order was SO42- = IO3- = OH- > HCO3- > Cl- > NO3- = I- and demonstrated the higher retention of the IO3- than I- anion. This study provides insights into promising iodine sorbents and the different removal mechanisms of I- and IO3- using CoAl and NiAl LDHs.

Kang, Jaehyuk↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Representation of Human Actions in Large‐Scale Hydrological Models: Challenges and Future Research Directions

Characterizing the impact of human actions on terrestrial water fluxes and storages at multi-basin, continental, and global scales has long been on the agenda of scientists engaged in climate science, hydrology, and water resources systems analysis. This need has resulted in a variety of modeling efforts focused on the representation of water infrastructure operations. Yet, the representation of human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological models is still relatively crude, fragmented across models, and often achieved at coarse resolutions (~10–100 km) that cannot capture local water management decisions. In this commentary, we argue that the concomitance of four drivers and innovations is poised to change the status quo: “hyper-resolution” hydrological models (~0.1–1 km), multi-sector modeling, satellite missions able to monitor the outcome of human actions, and machine learning are creating a fertile environment for human-water research to flourish. We then outline four challenges that chart future research in hydrological modeling: (a) creating hyper-resolution global data sets of water management practices, (b) improving the characterization of anthropogenic interventions on water quantity, stream temperature, and sediment transport, (c) improving model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, and (d) reducing the computational requirements associated with the successful exploration of these challenges. Overcoming them will require addressing modeling, computational, and data development needs that cut across the hydrology community, thereby requiring a major communal effort.

catchment hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advances in 3D Geologic Modeling of Alluvial Basins with a Focus on Facies and Property Modeling

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. There are hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in vertical separation between repository and water table and thus longer transport paths to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. A thick geologic host medium, which serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system, isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing Streamflow Forecast and Extracting Insights Using Long-Short Term Memory Networks With Data Integration at Continental Scales

Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data integration (DI) to leverage recent discharge measurements to improve forecasts. DI accepts lagged inputs either directly or through a convolutional neural network unit. DI ubiquitously elevated streamflow forecast performance to unseen levels, reaching a record continental-scale median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient value of 0.86. Integrating moving-average discharge, discharge from the last few days, or even average discharge from the previous calendar month could all improve daily forecasts. Directly using lagged observations as inputs was comparable in performance to using the convolutional neural network unit. Importantly, we obtained valuable insights regarding hydrologic processes impacting LSTM and DI performance. Before applying DI, the base LSTM model worked well in mountainous or snow-dominated regions, but less well in regions with low discharge volumes (due to either low precipitation or high precipitation-energy synchronicity) and large interannual storage variability. DI was most beneficial in regions with high flow autocorrelation: it greatly reduced baseflow bias in groundwater-dominated western basins and also improved peak prediction for basins with dynamical surface water storage, such as the Prairie Potholes or Great Lakes regions. However, even DI cannot elevate performance in high-aridity basins with 1-day flash peaks. Despite this limitation, there is much promise for a deep-learning-based forecast paradigm due to its performance, automation, efficiency, and flexibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model run output for WM-ABM 2024 HESS Publication

Model output for computational experiments introducing WM-ABM. See associated HESS publication here: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1604/ all_nldas_cdl_data_v3.txt - Cropland Data Layer data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution for input into the PMP calibration process. Variables include NLDAS ID, crop type, year, the count of pixels in the grid cell of the crop type, CDL crop ID, and GCAM crop ID. 20230115 ABM runs - WM-ABM model outputs for various scenarios described in HESS publication. If multiple versions exist (e.g., v2, v3, etc.) latest version indicates dataset generated for manuscript. The "baseline" run is the primary run, where as the "memXX" runs indicate sensitivity runs testing different parameters of agent memory. Output files starting with "abm_results_" include groundwater irrigated acres and surface water irrigated acres for each farm/agent combination. Other CSV outputs provide summary statistics of various agent and water shortage outcomes, used for generation of figures in the HESS manuscript.

ABM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Site Management Strategies for the Hanford Central Plateau Groundwater

Adaptive site management (ASM) is a systematic and iterative management approach that can be used to expedite the remediation of large and/or complex sites. ASM is defined as a formal and systematic project or site management approach centered on rigorous site planning and a firm understanding of site conditions and uncertainties, using science and technology to routinely re-evaluate and prioritize site remedial actions and characterization activities. The goal of the approach is to create a framework of structured and continuous planning, implementation, and assessment processes that accommodates new information and changing site conditions to develop effective and efficient cleanup approaches that achieves the required outcome(s) while optimizing costs, cleanup timeframe, and performance. Central to ASM is an evolving conceptual site model (CSM). Over time, incremental reductions in uncertainty associated with the CSM will occur, while supporting continued progress toward site cleanup and closure through remedy optimization and evaluation. ASM has the potential to expedite cleanup for the Central Plateau area at Hanford through a planned and systematic approach for reducing uncertainty with targeted characterization activities, while continuing remediation activities that advance cleanup for key risk-driving contaminants. A core component of cleanup within the Central Plateau is the 200 West Pump-and-Treat (P&T) system. Even with an active P&T remedy, uncertainty exists with respect to plume distributions, total mass in the aquifer, and currently known continuing sources. Additional uncertainty is associated with multiple contaminant source locations in the vadose zone, which have the potential to create new groundwater plumes in the absence of any source control measures, although not all contaminant fluxes to groundwater will result in contaminant concentrations above cleanup levels. Collectively, these uncertainties need to be addressed in the CSM to support effective and efficient site progress toward cleanup goal(s). Other nontechnical factors that may warrant an ASM approach at the Hanford Central Plateau are associated with the formation of operable units (OUs) used to manage cleanup. With the exception of the 200-ZP-1 OU, the three remaining groundwater OUs only have interim action records of decision. Nine vadose zone source area OUs are also in the early stages of the remedial investigation and feasibility study process, with pending characterization and technology identification activities. A set of proposed site objectives for the Central Plateau are provided in this document as an initial consideration/example and basis for discussion for ASM implementation. These example site objectives were selected with the goal of maintaining protectiveness at the Columbia River through confinement of contaminant plumes within an administratively controlled area below existing surface waste sites and waste disposal facilities. Although site decision makers and regulators need to provide concurrence, these site objectives are used in this document to describe the elements of an ASM approach, including selection of interim objectives and a long-term adaptive management plan. Interim objectives are also defined to yield measurable incremental progress toward the overall site goals. This document identifies initial technical considerations for developing an ASM framework for the Central Plateau cleanup decisions. These considerations are intended to facilitate more specific decisions, such as objectives, near- and long-term actions, and performance metrics, to develop an overall approach that maintains protectiveness but recognizes the uncertainty, long timeframe, and technical challenges that need to be considered in selecting, implementing, and managing remediation at the Hanford Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Play Fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawai‘i: 4. Updates with new groundwater chemistry, subsurface stress analysis, and focused geophysical surveys

This paper is the fourth in a series on a play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawai‘i. Here we describe recent exploration activities that include groundwater sampling in ten locations statewide, as well as geophysical surveys on Lana‘i, across the SW rift of Haleakala Volcano (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea Volcano (Hawai‘i Island). We derive a first-order method for computing topographic stress using Green’s functions, finding that topography can induce appreciable crustal stress. We develop a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and topographic stresses into our previously published equations to calculate resource probability and confidence. We incorporate newly collected and modeled data into our calculations to update statewide maps of probability and confidence. Lana‘i Island and southeast Mauna Kea are identified as the top targets for exploratory drilling. The east rift of Haleakala Volcano, the southern-most region of Mauna Loa’s SW rift (Hawai‘i Island), and central Kauai are identified as targets for geophysical surveying.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗
DOE OSTI2021

The effects of well damage and completion designs on geoelectrical responses in mature wellbore environments

Well integrity is one of the major concerns in long-term geologic storage sites due to the potential risk of well leakage and groundwater contamination. Evaluating changes in electrical responses due to energized steel-cased wells has the potential to quantify and predict possible wellbore failures because any kind of breakage or corrosion along highly conductive well casings will have an impact on the distribution of the subsurface electrical potential. However, realistic wellbore-geoelectrical models that can fully capture fine-scale details of well completion design and the state of well damage at the field scale require extensive computational effort, or they can even be intractable to simulate. To overcome this computational burden while still keeping the model realistic, we have used the hierarchical finite-element method that represents electrical conductivity at each dimensional component (1D edges, 2D planes, and 3D cells) of a tetrahedral mesh. This allows well completion designs with real-life geometric scales and well systems with realistic, detailed, progressive corrosion and damage in our models. We have developed a comparison of possible discretization approaches of a multicasing completion design in the finite-element model. The effects of the surface casing and the coupling between concentric well casings as well as the effects of the degree and the location of well damage on the electrical responses are also examined. As a result, we analyze real surface electric field data to detect wellbore integrity failure associated with damage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗