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NASA NTRS1991

Factors That Affect Software Testability

Software faults that infrequently affect software's output are dangerous. When a software fault causes frequent software failures, testing is likely to reveal the fault before the software is releases; when the fault remains undetected during testing, it can cause disaster after the software is installed. A technique for predicting whether a particular piece of software is likely to reveal faults within itself during testing is found in [Voas91b]. A piece of software that is likely to reveal faults within itself during testing is said to have high testability. A piece of software that is not likely to reveal faults within itself during testing is said to have low testability. It is preferable to design software with higher testabilities from the outset, i.e., create software with as high of a degree of testability as possible to avoid the problems of having undetected faults that are associated with low testability. Information loss is a phenomenon that occurs during program execution that increases the likelihood that a fault will remain undetected. In this paper, I identify two brad classes of information loss, define them, and suggest ways of predicting the potential for information loss to occur. We do this in order to decrease the likelihood that faults will remain undetected during testing.

Voas, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Consumer Expectations of Capacity Constrains and Their Effect on the Demand for Multi-Class Air Travel

This paper argues that a consumer's decision on ticket class takes into account the expected likelihood of obtaining a seat in a particular class which, in turn, partially depends on an optimum "transaction cost". Taking into account the preferences of the consumer and the information that the consumer is endowed with, the consumer will select a ticket that includes its own optimal transaction cost. This motivates the inclusion of the capacity constraint as a proxy independent variable for these consumer expectations This then forms the basis of a model of air-travel demand with specific reference to Australia. A censored likelihood function allowing for correlation in the disturbance term across k classes is introduced. The correlation in the disturbances arises as a result of the interdependence of the capacity constraints in k different ticket classes on each flight.

Battersby, Bryn D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Influence of Roughness on Gear Surface Fatigue

Gear working surfaces are subjected to repeated rolling and sliding contacts, and often designs require loads sufficient to cause eventual fatigue of the surface. This research provides experimental data and analytical tools to further the understanding of the causal relationship of gear surface roughness to surface fatigue. The research included evaluations and developments of statistical tools for gear fatigue data, experimental evaluation of the surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears with a near-mirror quality, and evaluations of the experiments by analytical methods and surface inspections. Alternative statistical methods were evaluated using Monte Carlo studies leading to a final recommendation to describe gear fatigue data using a Weibull distribution, maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, and a presumed zero-valued location parameter. A new method was developed for comparing two datasets by extending the current methods of likelihood-ratio based statistics. The surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears were evaluated by carefully controlled experiments, and it is shown conclusively that superfinishing of gears can provide for significantly greater lives relative to ground gears. The measured life improvement was approximately a factor of five. To assist with application of this finding to products, the experimental condition was evaluated. The fatigue life results were expressed in terms of specific film thickness and shown to be consistent with bearing data. Elastohydrodynamic and stress analyses were completed to relate the stress condition to fatigue. Smooth-surface models do not adequately explain the improved fatigue lives. Based on analyses using a rough surface model, it is concluded that the improved fatigue lives of superfinished gears is due to a reduced rate of near-surface micropitting fatigue processes, not due to any reduced rate of spalling (sub-surface) fatigue processes. To complete the evaluations, surface inspection were completed. The surface topographies of the ground gears changed substantially due to running, but the topographies of the superfinished gears were essentially unchanged with running.

Krantz, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS1998

Optimum Receiver Structure for PPM Signals with Avalanche Photodiode Statistics

The maximum likelihood decision statistic for detection of pulse-position modulated signals with an avalanche photodiode is derived, using the more accurate Webb density rather than Poisson or Gaussian approximations for the distribution of avalanche photodiode output electrons. It is shown that for Webb-distributed output electtrons, the maximum likelihood rule is to choose the PPM word corresponding to the slot with the maximum electron count.

avalanche photodiode PPM Gaussian Poisson↗

NASA NTRS2005

Using Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Guide Quantitative Safety Analysis

Quantitative methods can be beneficial in many types of safety investigations. However, there are many difficulties in using quantitative m ethods. Far example, there may be little relevant data available. This paper proposes a framework for using quantitative hazard analysis to prioritize hazard scenarios most suitable for quantitative mziysis. The framework first categorizes hazard scenarios by severity and likelihood. We then propose another metric "modeling difficulty" that desc ribes the complexity in modeling a given hazard scenario quantitatively. The combined metrics of severity, likelihood, and modeling difficu lty help to prioritize hazard scenarios for which quantitative analys is should be applied. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for airplane operatio ns at closely spaced parallel runways.

Shortle, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

Nickol, Craig L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Communications Blackout Predictions for Atmospheric Entry of Mars Science Laboratory

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) is expected to be a long-range, long-duration science laboratory rover on the Martian surface. MSL will provide a significant milestone that paves the way for future landed missions to Mars. NASA is studying options to launch MSL as early as 2009. There are three elements to the spacecraft; carrier (cruise stage), entry vehicle, and rover. The rover will have a UHF proximity link as the primary path for EDL communications and may have an X-band direct-to-Earth link as a back-up. Given the importance of collecting critical event telemetry data during atmospheric entry, it is important to understand the ability of a signal link to be maintained, especially during the period near peak convective heating. The received telemetry during entry (or played back later) will allow for the performance of the Entry-Descent-Landing technologies to be assessed. These technologies include guided entry for precision landing, a new sky-crane landing system and powered descent. MSL will undergo an entry profile that may result in a potential communications blackout caused by ionized particles for short periods near peak heating. The vehicle will use UHF and possibly X-band during the entry phase. The purpose of this rep0rt is to quantify or bound the likelihood of any such blackout at UHF frequencies (401 MHz) and X-band frequencies (8.4 GHz). Two entry trajectory scenarios were evaluated: a stressful entry trajectory to quantify an upper-bound for any possible blackout period, and a nominal trajectory to quantify likelihood of blackout for such cases.

communications↗

NASA NTRS2005

Communications Blackout Predictions for Atmospheric Entry of Mars Science Laboratory

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) is expected to be a long-range, long-duration science laboratory rover on the Martian surface. MSL will provide a significant milestone that paves the way for future landed missions to Mars. NASA is studying options to launch MSL as early as 2009. MSL will be the first mission to demonstrate the new technology of 'smart landers', which include precision landing and hazard avoidance in order to -land at scientifically interesting sites that would otherwise be unreachable. There are three elements to the spacecraft; carrier (cruise stage), entry vehicle, and rover. The rover will have an X-band direct-to-Earth (DTE) link as well as a UHF proximity link. There is also a possibility of an X-band proximity link. Given the importance of collecting critical event telemetry data during atmospheric entry, it is important to understand the ability of a signal link to be maintained, especially during the period near peak convective heating. The received telemetry during entry (or played back later) will allow for the performance of the Entry-Descent-Landing technologies to be assessed. These technologies include guided entry for precision landing, hazard avoidance, a new sky-crane landing system and powered descent. MSL will undergo an entry profile that may result in a potential communications blackout caused by ionized plasma for short periods near peak heating. The vehicle will use UHF and possibly X-band during the entry phase. The purpose of this report is to quantify or bound the likelihood of any such blackout at UHF frequencies (401 MHz) and X-band frequencies (8.4 GHz). Two entry trajectory scenarios were evaluated: a stressful entry trajectory to quantify an upper-bound for any possible blackout period, and a nominal likely trajectory to quantify likelihood of blackout for such cases.

UHF↗

NASA NTRS2007

Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

Mackey, Ryan↗

NASA NTRS2007

Noncoherent DTTLs for Symbol Synchronization

Noncoherent data-transition tracking loops (DTTLs) have been proposed for use as symbol synchronizers in digital communication receivers. [Communication- receiver subsystems that can perform their assigned functions in the absence of synchronization with the phases of their carrier signals ( carrier synchronization ) are denoted by the term noncoherent, while receiver subsystems that cannot function without carrier synchronization are said to be coherent. ] The proposal applies, more specifically, to receivers of binary phase-shift-keying (BPSK) signals generated by directly phase-modulating binary non-return-to-zero (NRZ) data streams onto carrier signals having known frequencies but unknown phases. The proposed noncoherent DTTLs would be modified versions of traditional DTTLs, which are coherent. The symbol-synchronization problem is essentially the problem of recovering symbol timing from a received signal. In the traditional, coherent approach to symbol synchronization, it is necessary to establish carrier synchronization in order to recover symbol timing. A traditional DTTL effects an iterative process in which it first generates an estimate of the carrier phase in the absence of symbol-synchronization information, then uses the carrier-phase estimate to obtain an estimate of the symbol-synchronization information, then feeds the symbol-synchronization estimate back to the carrier-phase-estimation subprocess. In a noncoherent symbol-synchronization process, there is no need for carrier synchronization and, hence, no need for iteration between carrier-synchronization and symbol- synchronization subprocesses. The proposed noncoherent symbolsynchronization process is justified theoretically by a mathematical derivation that starts from a maximum a posteriori (MAP) method of estimation of symbol timing utilized in traditional, coherent DTTLs. In that MAP method, one chooses the value of a variable of interest (in this case, the offset in the estimated symbol timing) that causes a likelihood function of symbol estimates over some number of symbol periods to assume a maximum value. In terms that are necessarily oversimplified to fit within the space available for this article, it can be said that the mathematical derivation involves a modified interpretation of the likelihood function that lends itself to noncoherent DTTLs. The proposal encompasses both linear and nonlinear noncoherent DTTLs. The performances of both have been computationally simulated; for comparison, the performances of linear and nonlinear coherent DTTLs have also been computationally simulated. The results of these simulations show that, among other things, the expected mean-square timing errors of coherent and noncoherent DTTLs are relatively insensitive to window width. The results also show that at high signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), the performances of the noncoherent DTTLs approach those of their coherent counterparts at, while at low SNRs, the noncoherent DTTLs incur penalties of the order of 1.5 to 2 dB.

Simon, Marvin↗

NASA NTRS2011

Human factors process failure modes and effects analysis (HF PFMEA) software tool

Methods, computer-readable media, and systems for automatically performing Human Factors Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis for a process are provided. At least one task involved in a process is identified, where the task includes at least one human activity. The human activity is described using at least one verb. A human error potentially resulting from the human activity is automatically identified, the human error is related to the verb used in describing the task. A likelihood of occurrence, detection, and correction of the human error is identified. The severity of the effect of the human error is identified. The likelihood of occurrence, and the severity of the risk of potential harm is identified. The risk of potential harm is compared with a risk threshold to identify the appropriateness of corrective measures.

Chandler, Faith T.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sleep Disruption Medical Intervention Forecasting (SDMIF) Module for the Integrated Medical Model

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fatigue due to sleep disruption is a condition that could lead to operational errors, potentially resulting in loss of mission or crew. Pharmacological consumables are mitigation strategies used to manage the risks associated with sleep deficits. The likelihood of medical intervention due to sleep disruption was estimated with a well validated sleep model and a Monte Carlo computer simulation in an effort to optimize the quantity of consumables. METHODS: The key components of the model are the mission parameter program, the calculation of sleep intensity and the diagnosis and decision module. The mission parameter program was used to create simulated daily sleep/wake schedules for an ISS increment. The hypothetical schedules included critical events such as dockings and extravehicular activities and included actual sleep time and sleep quality. The schedules were used as inputs to the Sleep, Activity, Fatigue and Task Effectiveness (SAFTE) Model (IBR Inc., Baltimore MD), which calculated sleep intensity. Sleep data from an ISS study was used to relate calculated sleep intensity to the probability of sleep medication use, using a generalized linear model for binomial regression. A human yes/no decision process using a binomial random number was also factored into sleep medication use probability. RESULTS: These probability calculations were repeated 5000 times resulting in an estimate of the most likely amount of sleep aids used during an ISS mission and a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSIONS: These results were transferred to the parent IMM for further weighting and integration with other medical conditions, to help inform operational decisions. This model is a potential planning tool for ensuring adequate sleep during sleep disrupted periods of a mission.

Lewandowski, Beth↗

NASA NTRS2011

Application of Probabilistic Methods to Assess Risk Due to Resonance in the Design of J-2X Rocket Engine Turbine Blades

The LOX-Hydrogen J-2X Rocket Engine, which is proposed for use as an upper-stage engine for numerous earth-to-orbit and heavy lift launch vehicle architectures, is presently in the design phase and will move shortly to the initial development test phase. Analysis of the design has revealed numerous potential resonance issues with hardware in the turbomachinery turbine-side flow-path. The analysis of the fuel pump turbine blades requires particular care because resonant failure of the blades, which are rotating in excess of 30,000 revolutions/minutes (RPM), could be catastrophic for the engine and the entire launch vehicle. This paper describes a series of probabilistic analyses performed to assess the risk of failure of the turbine blades due to resonant vibration during past and present test series. Some significant results are that the probability of failure during a single complete engine hot-fire test is low (~1%) because of the small likelihood of resonance, but that the probability increases to around 30% for a more focused turbomachinery-only test because all speeds will be ramped through and there is a greater likelihood of dwelling at more speeds. These risk calculations have been invaluable for use by program management in deciding if risk-reduction methods such as dampers are necessary immediately or if the test can be performed before the risk-reduction hardware is ready.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Methodology and method and apparatus for signaling with capacity optimized constellations

Communication systems having transmitter, includes a coder configured to receive user bits and output encoded bits at an expanded output encoded bit rate, a mapper configured to map encoded bits to symbols in a symbol constellation, a modulator configured to generate a signal for transmission via the communication channel using symbols generated by the mapper. In addition, the receiver includes a demodulator configured to demodulate the received signal via the communication channel, a demapper configured to estimate likelihoods from the demodulated signal, a decoder that is configured to estimate decoded bits from the likelihoods generated by the demapper. Furthermore, the symbol constellation is a capacity optimized geometrically spaced symbol constellation that provides a given capacity at a reduced signal-to-noise ratio compared to a signal constellation that maximizes d.sub.min.

Barsoum, Maged F.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Extremophile Diatoms: Implications to the Drake Equation

Diatoms are unicellular Eukaryotes that (as a group and phylogenetically) are not strictly regarded as extremophiles , since the vast majority of diatoms are mesophilic photoautotrophs. However, among the terrestrial Eukaryotes, diatoms are by far the single group of organisms with the ability to inhabit the greatest range of hostile environments on Earth. They are the dominant eukaryotes in the polar regions; in fumaroles, hot springs and geysers; and in hypersaline and hyperalkaline lakes and pools. Cryophilic species such as Fragilaria sublinearis and Chaetoceras fragilis are able to carry out respiration at extremely low rates at low temperatures in darkness. The Drake Equation refers to the likelihood of there being intelligent life at the technological level of electromagnetic communication. However, consideration of the range of conditions suitable for the habitability of eukaryotic diatoms and prokaryotic extremophiles, the likelihood that life exists elsewhere in the cosmos becomes many orders of magnitude greater than that predicted by the classical Drake Equation. In this paper we review the characteristics of diatoms as eukaryotic extremophiles and consider the implications to adjustments needed to the Drake Equation to assess the possibility that life exists elsewhere in the Universe.

Sterrenburg, Frithjof A. S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Method and system for diagnostics of apparatus

Proposed is a method, implemented in software, for estimating fault state of an apparatus outfitted with sensors. At each execution period the method processes sensor data from the apparatus to obtain a set of parity parameters, which are further used for estimating fault state. The estimation method formulates a convex optimization problem for each fault hypothesis and employs a convex solver to compute fault parameter estimates and fault likelihoods for each fault hypothesis. The highest likelihoods and corresponding parameter estimates are transmitted to a display device or an automated decision and control system. The obtained accurate estimate of fault state can be used to improve safety, performance, or maintenance processes for the apparatus.

Gorinevsky, Dimitry↗

NASA NTRS2012

Optical Communications Channel Combiner

NASA has identified deep-space optical communications links as an integral part of a unified space communication network in order to provide data rates in excess of 100 Mb/s. The distances and limited power inherent in a deep-space optical downlink necessitate the use of photon-counting detectors and a power-efficient modulation such as pulse position modulation (PPM). For the output of each photodetector, whether from a separate telescope or a portion of the detection area, a communication receiver estimates a log-likelihood ratio for each PPM slot. To realize the full effective aperture of these receivers, their outputs must be combined prior to information decoding. A channel combiner was developed to synchronize the log-likelihood ratio (LLR) sequences of multiple receivers, and then combines these into a single LLR sequence for information decoding. The channel combiner synchronizes the LLR sequences of up to three receivers and then combines these into a single LLR sequence for output. The channel combiner has three channel inputs, each of which takes as input a sequence of four-bit LLRs for each PPM slot in a codeword via a XAUI 10 Gb/s quad optical fiber interface. The cross-correlation between the channels LLR time series are calculated and used to synchronize the sequences prior to combining. The output of the channel combiner is a sequence of four-bit LLRs for each PPM slot in a codeword via a XAUI 10 Gb/s quad optical fiber interface. The unit is controlled through a 1 Gb/s Ethernet UDP/IP interface. A deep-space optical communication link has not yet been demonstrated. This ground-station channel combiner was developed to demonstrate this capability and is unique in its ability to process such a signal.

Quirk, Kevin J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Current-State Constrained Filter Bank for Wald Testing of Spacecraft Conjunctions

We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the method achieved a missed detection rate of 0.1%, and a false alarm rate of 2%.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗