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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Ready Dataset of Acoustic Power Maps for Detection of Active Region Emergence

The development of an accurate forecast for solar eruptive activity has become increasingly important in order to prevent any potential impact on activities in space and the Earth's environment. It is therefore crucial to detect active regions before they appear on the solar surface and create early warning capabilities for upcoming Space Weather disturbances. In this work, 9TB of solar data (SDO/HMI dopplergrams, magnetograms and continuum intensity maps) involving the emergence of 61 NOAA solar active regions since 2010 were processed using the NASA HECC capabilities. An acoustic power maps time-series dataset was created (for four different frequency ranges and processed to take into account the solar sphere geometric effect ) which can be used for understanding the dynamics of the solar surface and train a variety of ML models. The calculated acoustic power maps carry precursor information associated with the decrease in continuum intensity on the solar surface, verifying older helioseismology research. Our results show that a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs) model, with a modest layer depth and the right hyperparameters tuned, when trained on this solar acoustic power maps dataset can predict without false negatives a drop in intensity (associated with the emergence of the active region), up to 18 hours in advance.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nanoflare Heating Frequency of an X-Ray Bright Point Observed By MaGIXS

Nanoflares are thought to be one of the prime candidates that can heat the solar corona to its multimillion kelvin temperature. Individual nanoflares are difficult to detect with the present generation instruments, however their presence can be inferred by comparing simulated nanoflare-heated plasma emissions with the observed emission. Using HYDRAD coronal loop simulations, we model the emission from an X-ray bright point observed by the Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS), along with concurrent observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and X-Ray Telescope (XRT) onboard Hinode observatory. The length and magnetic field strength of the coronal loops are derived from the potential field extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetogram by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard SDO. Each loop is assumed to be heated by random nanoflares, whose magnitude and frequency are determined by the loop length and magnetic field strength. The simulation results are then compared and matched against the measured intensity from AIA, XRT, and MaGIXS. Our model results indicate the loop morphology and emissions from the XBP under study could be well matched by a distribution of nanoflares with average delay times 400 s to 800 s, which strongly suggest that the heating is dominated by high-frequency events. Further, we demonstrate the high sensitivity of MaGIXS and XRT to diagnose the heating frequency using this method, while AIA passbands are found to be the least sensitive.

coronal heating↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining The Nanoflare Heating Frequency of an X-Ray Bright Point Observed by MaGIXS

Nanoflares are thought to be one of the prime candidates that can heat the solar corona to its multi-million kelvin temperature. Individual nanoflares are difficult to detect with the present generation instruments, however their presence can be inferred by comparing simulated nanoflare-heated plasma emissions with the observed emission. Using HYDRAD coronal loop simulations, we model the emission from an X-ray bright point (XBP) observed by the Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS), along with nearest-available observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and X-Ray Telescope (XRT) onboard Hinode observatory. The length and magnetic field strength of the coronal loops are derived from the linear-force-free extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetogram by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard SDO. Each loop is assumed to be heated by random nanoflares, whose magnitude and frequency are determined by the loop length and magnetic field strength. The simulation results are then compared and matched against the measured intensity from AIA, XRT, and MaGIXS. Our model results indicate the observed emissions from the XBP under study could be well matched by a distribution of nanoflares with average delay times 1500 s to 3000 s, which suggest that the heating is dominated by high-frequency events. Further, we demonstrate the high sensitivity of MaGIXS and XRT to diagnose the heating frequency using this method, while AIA passbands are found to be the least sensitive.

coronal heating↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Active Region Coronal Jets: Hidden-onset Jets

Solar quiet- and coronal-hole region coronal jets frequently clearly originate from erupting minifilaments, but active-region jets often lack an obvious erupting-minifilament source. We observe a coronal-jet-productive active region (AR), AR12824, over 2021 May 22 0–8 UT, primarily using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Array (AIA) EUV images and SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager magnetograms. Jets were concentrated in two locations in the AR: on the south side and on the northwest side of the AR’s lone large sunspot. The south-location jets are oriented so that we have a clear view of the jets’ origin low in the atmosphere: their source is clearly minifilaments erupting from locations showing magnetic flux changes/cancelations. After erupting a projected distance ~5ʹʹ away from their origin site, the minifilaments erupt outward onto far-reaching field as part of the jet’s spire, quickly losing their minifilament character. In contrast, the northwest-location jets show no clear erupting minifilament, but the source site of those jets are obscured along our line of sight by absorbing chromospheric material. EUV and magnetic data indicate that the likely source sites were ~15ʹʹ from where the we first see the jet spire; thus, an erupting minifilament would likely lose its minifilament character before we first see the spire. We conclude that such AR jets could work like non-AR jets, but the erupting-minifilament jet source is often hidden by obscuring material. Another factor is that magnetic eruptions making some AR jets carry only a harder-to-detect comparatively thin (∼1ʹʹ–2ʹʹ) minifilament “strand.” A full report appears in Sterling, Moore, & Panesar (2024, ApJ, 960, 109).

Alphonse C. Sterling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Constraining Nanoflare Frequency Through Observations and Models

Nanoflares are considered prime candidates for heating the non-flaring solar corona. However, direct detection of individual nanoflares with present-generation instruments remains challenging. Understanding the frequency and magnitude of nanoflares is crucial for comprehending their role in coronal heating. In this study, we employ field-aligned hydrodynamic model to simulate the emission from a non-flaring X-ray bright point (XBP) observed by the Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS). The length and magnetic field strength of the coronal loops associated with this XBP are derived from magnetic field extrapolation of observed photospheric magnetograms by SDO/HMI. Each loop is assumed to be heated by random nanoflares, whose frequency and magnitude are determined by the loop length and their field strength. The simulation results are then compared and matched against the observation to determine the nanoflare heating frequency. We will discuss the findings of this study. Furthermore, we will discuss the evolution of nanoflare heating frequency during the formation and decay of an active region (AR) on the solar disk.

coronalheating↗
NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Optimisation Parameters on Data-Driven Magnetofrictional Modelling of Active Regions

Context . The solar magnetic field plays an essential role in the formation, evolution, and dynamics of large-scale eruptive structures in the corona. The estimation of the coronal magnetic field, the ultimate driver of space weather, particularly in the ‘low’ and ‘middle’ corona, is presently limited due to practical difficulties. Data-driven time-dependent magnetofrictional modelling (TMFM) of active region magnetic fields has been proven to be a useful tool to study the corona. The input to the model is the photospheric electric field that is inverted from a time series of the photospheric magnetic field. Constraining the complete electric field, that is, including the non-inductive component, is critical for capturing the eruption dynamics. We present a detailed study of the effects of optimisation of the non-inductive electric field on the TMFM of AR 12473. Aims . We aim to study the effects of varying the non-inductive electric field on the data-driven coronal simulations, for two alternative parametrisations. By varying parameters controlling the strength of the non-inductive electric field, we wish to explore the changes in flux rope formation and their early evolution and other parameters, for instance, axial flux and magnetic field magnitude. Methods . We used the high temporal and spatial resolution cadence vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The non-inductive electric field component in the photosphere is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field, thereby allowing unstable configurations to be formed. We estimated this component using an approach based on optimising the injection of magnetic energy. Results . Our data show that flux ropes are formed in all of the simulations except for those with the lower values of these optimised parameters. However, the flux rope formation, evolution and eruption time varies depending on the values of the optimisation parameters. The flux rope is formed and has overall similar evolution and properties with a large range of non-inductive electric fields needed to determine the non-inductive electric field component that is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field. Conclusions . This study shows that irrespective of non-inductive electric field values, flux ropes are formed and erupted, which indicates that data-driven TMFM can be used to estimate flux rope properties early in their evolution without needing to employ a lengthy optimisation process.

A. Kumari↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Solar Activity Data Portal for Studying 3D Dynamics and Activity of the Sun

The main problems with understanding and predicting solar activity are tightly linked to limitations in describing the global evolution of the Sun from the deep interior to the corona. Because of the complexity of interactions in a wide range of dynamical, turbulent, and spatial scales and dramatic changes in thermodynamic and magnetic field conditions, only physics-based models can provide essential background to generate reliable solar activity forecasts. However, performing accurate model calibration and estimating uncertainties is often challenging due to the unavailability of a long time series of observations. To mitigate these limitations, we have developed the Global Solar Activity (GSA) Data Portal, which enables convenient access to a variety of modern and historical data. The portal supports a dynamic visualization for 1D time series (such as the sunspot number and solar irradiance) and quick-look visualization for 2D datasets (e.g., synoptic magnetograms, the solar internal rotation, and flows). The GSA portal includes a search engine that enables data retrieval from user-specified data sources and time intervals. In this presentation, we will discuss the current and upcoming capabilities of the data portal and its potential applications for space weather studies.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗