Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Maximum Likelihood Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A New Estimator to Correct for Bias from Tag Rate Expansion on Natural-Origin Fish Attributes in Mixed-Stock Analysis Using Parentage-Based Tagging

Abstract In fisheries where hatchery- and natural-origin conspecifics occur as mixed stocks, it is often important to estimate both the natural-origin proportion of the mixture and the composition of attributes within the natural-origin portion (e.g., genetic stock, sex, and age-class). These estimates are facilitated by parentage-based tagging, which allows large numbers of hatchery fish to be efficiently tagged and later identified. When tag rates are less than 100%, the untagged fish in the mixture include both untagged hatchery fish and natural-origin fish. Unbiased estimation of the abundance and attribute composition of the natural-origin portion requires an estimator that accounts for tag rates. Two estimators are described: one “accounting-style” estimator similar to previously described approaches and one maximum likelihood method. These estimators were evaluated and compared using simulations mimicking estimation of the composition of fish migrating past a dam. The two estimators performed similarly at reducing bias when tag rates were high, but the maximum likelihood method had smaller mean square error when tag rates were low. We provide an R package to allow usage of this estimator in a wide variety of fisheries applications.

Delomas, Thomas A. (ORCID:000000015154759X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

ASCR Workshop Position Paper: Challenges and Opportunities in High Energy Physics

High energy particle physics and cosmology concern themselves with estimating fundamental parameters of nature, such as the masses and interactions of fundamental particles like the Higgs boson and the rate of expansion of the universe. In doing so, they analyze exabyte-scale datasets, some of the largest in all of science, and face many challenges in subsequent data analysis. These challenges are shared between the two disciplines, but we focus on particle physics to highlight one specific domain. In particle physics, the standard method for estimating parameters involves performing Monte Carlo (MC) integration as a function of both parameters of interest and nuisance parameters using an expensive simulator, counting the number of observed collision events (i.i.d. samples) from an experiment in the corresponding integration domains, and forming a Poisson likelihood function. This likelihood function is then used in a Frequentist manner to construct a maximum likelihood point estimate (MLE) and confidence set for the parameters. To sufficiently populate the high-dimensional integration domains, simulators consume billions of CPU-hours annually and produce hundreds of petabytes of intermediate output data. Several techniques have been developed to: optimize definitions of the integration domains so as to be maximally sensitive to a particular subset of parameters, efficiently estimate the integrals, and build robust surrogate models by interpolating between integral evaluations at different parameter points. One can view this whole endeavor as classical Simulation-Based Inference (SBI).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust Medium-Voltage Distribution System State Estimation using Multi-Source Data

Due to the lack of sufficient online measurements for distribution system observability, pseudo-measurements from short-term load or distributed renewable energy resources (DERs) forecasting are used. However, the accuracy of them is low and thus significantly limits the performance of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). In this paper, a robust DSSE that integrates multi-source measurement data is proposed. Specifically, the historical low-voltage (LV) side smart meters are used to forecast load and DERs injections via the support vector machine (SVM) with optimally tuned parameters. By contrast, the online smart meters at LV side are utilized to derive equivalent power injections at the MV/LV transformers, yielding more accurate pseudo-measurements compared to the forecasted injections. Furthermore, to deal with bad data caused by communication loss, instrumental errors and cyber attacks, robust DSSE that relies on generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimation criterion is developed. The projection statistics are developed to adjust the weights of each measurement, leading to better balance between pseudo- and real-time measurements. Numerical results conducted on modified IEEE 33-bus system with DG integration demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

distribution system state estimation↗
NASA NTRS1980

Development of advanced techniques for rotorcraft state estimation and parameter identification

An integrated methodology for rotorcraft system identification consists of rotorcraft mathematical modeling, three distinct data processing steps, and a technique for designing inputs to improve the identifiability of the data. These elements are as follows: (1) a Kalman filter smoother algorithm which estimates states and sensor errors from error corrupted data. Gust time histories and statistics may also be estimated; (2) a model structure estimation algorithm for isolating a model which adequately explains the data; (3) a maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating the parameters and estimates for the variance of these estimates; and (4) an input design algorithm, based on a maximum likelihood approach, which provides inputs to improve the accuracy of parameter estimates. Each step is discussed with examples to both flight and simulated data cases.

Hall, W. E., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Using PyBioNetFit to leverage qualitative and quantitative data in biological model parameterization and uncertainty quantification

Data generated in studies of cellular regulatory systems are often qualitative. For example, measurements of signaling readouts in the presence and absence of mutations may reveal a rank ordering of responses across conditions but not the precise extents of mutation-induced differences. Qualitative data are often ignored by mathematical modelers or are considered in an ad hoc manner, as in the study of Kocieniewski and Lipniacki (2013) [Phys Biol 10: 035006], which was focused on the roles of MEK isoforms in ERK activation. In this earlier study, model parameter values were tuned manually to obtain consistency with a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This approach is not reproducible, nor does it provide insights into parametric or prediction uncertainties. Here, starting from the same data and the same ordinary differential equation (ODE) model structure, we generate formalized statements of qualitative observations, making these observations more reusable, and we improve the model parameterization procedure by applying a systematic and automated approach enabled by the software package PyBioNetFit. We also demonstrate uncertainty quantification (UQ), which was absent in the original study. Our results show that PyBioNetFit enables qualitative data to be leveraged, together with quantitative data, in parameterization of systems biology models and facilitates UQ. These capabilities are important for reliable estimation of model parameters and model analyses in studies of cellular regulatory systems and reproducibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Weibull and Bootstrap-Based Data-Analytics Framework for Fatigue Life Prognosis of the Pressurized Water Nuclear Reactor Component Under Harsh Reactor Coolant Environment

In general, the fatigue life of a safety critical pressure component is estimated using best-fit fatigue life curves (S-N curves). These curves are estimated based on underlying in-air condition fatigue test data. The best-fitting approach requires a large safety factor to accommodate the uncertainty associated with large scatter in fatigue test data. In addition to this safety factor, reactor component fatigue life prognostics requires an additional correction factor that in general is also estimated deterministically. This additional factor known as the environmental correction factor F en is to cater the effect of the harsh coolant environment that severely reduces the life of these components. The deterministic F en factor may also lead to further conservative estimation of fatigue life leading to unnecessary early retirement of costly reactor components. To address the above-mentioned issues, we propose a data-analytics framework which uses Weibull and Bootstrap probabilistic modeling techniques for explicitly quantifying the uncertainty/scatter associated with fatigue life rather than estimating the lives based on a best-fit based deterministic approach. We assume the proposed probabilistic approach would provide the first hand information for assessing the maximum and minimum effects of pressurized water reactor water on the reactor component. In the discussed approach, in addition to the probabilistic fatigue curves, we suggest using a probabilistic environment correction factor F en . Here, we assume the probabilistic fatigue curve and F en would capture the S-N data scatter associated with the bulk effect of material grades, surface finish, strain rate, etc. on the material/component fatigue life.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Measurement of kernel swelling and buffer densification in irradiated UCO-TRISO particles

Radiation-induced volume changes in the fuel kernels and buffer layers of UCO-TRISO particles irradiated to an average burnup of 16.1% FIMA have been determined. Measurements of particle dimensions were made on polished cross-sections of 56 irradiated particles at several different polish planes. The data were then analyzed to compute the equivalent spherical diameters of the kernels and the various coating layers, and these were compared to the average as-fabricated values to determine changes due to irradiation. Finally, the kernel volume was found to have increased by an average of 26 ± 6%. Buffer volume decreased by an average of 39 ± 2% due to densification.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations

Abstract The atmospheric component of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 has included many new features in the physics parameterizations compared to its predecessors. Potential complex nonlinear interactions among the new features create a significant challenge for understanding the model behaviors and parameter tuning. Using the one‐at‐a‐time method, the benefit of tuning one parameter may offset the benefit of tuning another parameter, or improvement in one target variable may lead to degradation in another target variable. To better understand the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 model behaviors and physics, we conducted a large number of short simulations (three days) in which 18 parameters carefully selected from parameterizations of deep convection, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics and microphysics were perturbed simultaneously using the Latin hypercube sampling method. From the perturbed parameter ensemble simulations and use of different skill score functions, we identified the most sensitive parameters, quantified how the model responds to changes of the parameters for both global mean and spatial distribution, and estimated the maximum likelihood of model parameter space for a number of important fidelity metrics. Comparison of the parametric sensitivity using simulations of two different lengths suggests that perturbed parameter ensemble using short simulations has some bearing on understanding parametric sensitivity of longer simulations. Results from this analysis provide a more comprehensive picture of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 behavior. The difficulty in reducing biases in multiple variables simultaneously highlights the need of characterizing model structural uncertainty (so‐called embedded errors) to inform future development efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation Metrics for Fixed Effects and Mixed-Effects Calibration

The modern scientific process often involves the development of a predictive computational model. To improve its accuracy, a computational model can be calibrated to a set of experimental data. A variety of validation metrics can be used to quantify this process. Some of these metrics have direct physical interpretations and a history of use, while others, especially those for probabilistic data, are more difficult to interpret. In this work, a variety of validation metrics are used to quantify the accuracy of different calibration methods. Frequentist and Bayesian perspectives are used with both fixed effects and mixed-effects statistical models. Through a quantitative comparison of the resulting distributions, the most accurate calibration method can be selected. Two examples are included which compare the results of various validation metrics for different calibration methods. It is quantitatively shown that, in the presence of significant laboratory biases, a fixed effects calibration is significantly less accurate than a mixed-effects calibration. This is because the mixed-effects statistical model better characterizes the underlying parameter distributions than the fixed effects model. The results suggest that validation metrics can be used to select the most accurate calibration model for a particular empirical model with corresponding experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1973

Maximum likelihood synchronizer for binary overlapping PCM/NRZ signals.

A maximum likelihood parameter estimation technique for the self bit synchronization problem is investigated. The input sequence to the bit synchronizer is a sequence of binary overlapping PCM/NRZ signal in the presence of white Gaussian noise with zero mean and known variance. The resulting synchronizer consists of matched filters, a transition device and a weighting function. Finally, the performance is examined by Monte Carlo simulations.

Wang, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

The sensitivity of a very long baseline interferometer

The theoretical sensitivity of various methods of acquiring and processing interferometer data are compared. It is shown that for a fixed digital recording capacity one bit quantization of single sideband data filtered with a rectangular bandpass and sampled at the Nyquist rate yields the optimum signal to noise ratio. The losses which result from imperfect bandpass, poor image rejection, approximate methods of fringe rotation, fractional bit correction, and loss of quadrature are discussed. Also discussed is the use of the complex delay function as a maximum likelihood fringe estimator.

Rogers, A. E. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Discrimination Relative to Measures of Non-Normality

The robustness of discriminant functions to nonnormality is investigated. The performance of procedures relative to measures of the difference between the actual distribution of the observations and the usual assumption of normal densities is assessed. For example, the two population, mixed distributions problem with equal costs of misclassification are considered. The parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and recently proposed robust methods.

Smith, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On-orbit Systems Identification of Flexible Spacecraft Technol., 1984, Pt. 2 p 465-481

Future spacecraft include configurations which are too flexible to be adequately tested prior to flight and which will require on-orbit systems identification to ensure safe operation of the flight control system. The structural dynamics model will evolve and its accuracy will improve in stages as ground tests of full-scale components and replica-scale models are performed. State Space Modeling and Conditional Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation methodology can provide the formal probability-based framework for the process of upgrading a model as additional test results are obtained. Although the number of unknown parameters can be reduced by the use of canonical forms for the stability matrix, the number of unknown model parameters quickly becomes unmanageable unless advantage is taken of the relationship of a much fewer number of global model parameters. Distributed parameter systems or partial differential equation models are one way to take advantage of such global parameters to reduce the number of unknown model parameters.

Taylor, L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Measurement of interaction cross section of cosmic ray Fe nuclei (E4 GeV/N) with Al target

Although the study of relatvistic heavy ion interaction encumbered by the low intensities of the incident heavy nuclei in cosmic ray experiments, however, one can use a suitable structure of detector to attain a result with a reasonable accuracy. A cross section value of Fe(E 4 GeV/N) with Al is presented. CR-39 was used as detector and Al as target. The cross section value is estimated using maximum likelihood method.

Ren, G. X.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On-orbit systems identification of flexible spacecraft

The process of on-orbit systems identification of flexible spacecraft is examined in terms of the difficulties that are expected because of the potentially unmanageable number of unknown model parameters due to the very high order system models involved. A Jordon block canonical form and global model parameters are used to reduce the number of unknown parameters to manageable numbers. A Bayesian approach is discussed which enables the merging of theoretical models with ground or on-orbit test results by using Unconditional Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation. A Modified Newton-Raphson technique is proposed for determining the model parameter estimates and an expected fit error criterion is recommended for the determination of the model structure and order reduction.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Multiple symbol differential detection of uncoded and trellis coded MPSK

A differential detection for MPSK, which uses a multiple symbol observation interval, is presented and its performance analyzed and simulated. The technique makes use of maximum-likelihood sequence estimation of the transmitted phases rather than symbol-by-symbol detection as in conventional differential detection. As such the performance of this multiple symbol detection scheme fills the gap between conventional (two-symbol observation) differentially coherent detection of MPSK and ideal coherent of MPSK with differential encoding. The amount of improvement gained over conventional differential detection depends on the number of phases, M, and the number of additional symbol intervals added to the observation. What is particularly interesting is that substantial performance improvement can be obtained for only one or two additional symbol intervals of observation. The analysis and simulation results presented are for uncoded and trellis coded MPSK.

Divsalar, Dariush↗
NASA NTRS1990

Multiple-symbol differential detection of MPSK

A differential detection technique for MPSK (multiple-phase shift keying), which uses a multiple-symbol observation interval, is presented, and its performance is analyzed and simulated. The technique makes use of maximum-likelihood sequence estimation of the transmitted phases rather than symbol-by-symbol detection as in conventional differential detection. Thus, the performance of this multiple-symbol detection scheme fills the gap between conventional (two-symbol observation) differentially coherent detection of MPSK and ideal coherent of MPSK with differential encoding. The amount of improvement gained over conventional differential detection depends on the number of phases M and the number of additional symbol intervals added to the observation. What is particularly interesting is that substantial performance improvement can be obtained for only one or two additional symbol intervals of observation. The analysis and simulation results presented are for uncoded MPSK.

Divsalar, Dariush↗