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At least 487 records · Page 27

Cellular and Network Mechanisms Underlying Information Processing in a Simple Sensory System

Realistic, biophysically-based compartmental models were constructed of several primary sensory interneurons in the cricket cercal sensory system. A dynamic atlas of the afferent input to these cells was used to set spatio-temporal parameters for the simulated stimulus-dependent synaptic inputs. We examined the roles of dendritic morphology, passive membrane properties, and active conductances on the frequency tuning of the neurons. The sensitivity of narrow-band low pass interneurons could be explained entirely by the electronic structure of the dendritic arbors and the dynamic sensitivity of the SIZ. The dynamic characteristics of interneurons with higher frequency sensitivity required models with voltage-dependent dendritic conductances.

Jacobs, Gwen↗

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

Clouds↗

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

Neal, Donald M.↗

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. An inverse estimation of the backshell and heatshield surface aeroheating was performed, using the data from the MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs, a network of thermocouples embedded within the thermal protection system across the aeroshell. Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the surface heat rate, temperature, and heat load to uncertainties in thermocouple depth and material properties. In this paper, a variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to understand the relative contributions of each uncertainty parameter. Performing this analysis using results from the inverse analysis tool FIAT_Opt was found to require incredibly high computation time, and thus machine learning models were trained and evaluated as a surrogate model for FIAT_Opt. This paper demonstrates that machine learning models can be an efficient, accurate alternative to state-of-the-art inverse analysis tools like FIAT_Opt, especially for computationally-expensive processes. Using these models, the sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in heat capacity and thermal conductivity were the main drivers for the overall uncertainty in peak reconstructed heating and heat load.

H S Alpert↗

A new methodology to determine kinetic parameters for one- and two-step chemical models

In this paper, a new methodology to determine kinetic parameters for simple chemical models and simple transport properties classically used in DNS of premixed combustion is presented. First, a one-dimensional code is utilized to performed steady unstrained laminar methane-air flame in order to verify intrinsic features of laminar flames such as burning velocity and temperature and concentration profiles. Second, the flame response to steady and unsteady strain in the opposed jet configuration is numerically investigated. It appears that for a well determined set of parameters, one- and two-step mechanisms reproduce the extinction limit of a laminar flame submitted to a steady strain. Computations with the GRI-mech mechanism (177 reactions, 39 species) and multicomponent transport properties are used to validate these simplified models. A sensitivity analysis of the preferential diffusion of heat and reactants when the Lewis number is close to unity indicates that the response of the flame to an oscillating strain is very sensitive to this number. As an application of this methodology, the interaction between a two-dimensional vortex pair and a premixed laminar flame is performed by Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) using the one- and two-step mechanisms. Comparison with the experimental results of Samaniego et al. (1994) shows a significant improvement in the description of the interaction when the two-step model is used.

Mantel, T.↗

A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

Ambaruch, R.↗

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

sensitivity↗

Regional variability of dust single scattering albedo due to mineral composition

Nearly all Earth System Models (ESMs) assume globally homogeneous dust aerosols, neglecting regional variations of the imaginary refractive index (IRI) due to varying mineral composition. This has led to a range of single scattering albedo (SSA) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) estimates, as models assign global properties using dust measurements from different regions. We use model and observational data to assess to what extent regionally varying mineral composition affects visible-band SSA and short-wave DRF of dust. We run global simulations with NASA GISS ModelE2.1, using optical properties for minerals based on laboratory-derived empirical relationships between dust IRI at visible wavelengths and the mineral content of iron oxides. When allowing mineral variations instead of homogeneous dust, we find regional differences in dust SSA up to ~0.06 and consequent variations in DRF up to ~6 and ~5 W/m2, at surface and top-of-atmosphere respectively. We compare model SSA with AERONET inversion data (Version 3.0, Level 2), filtered by aerosol size and optical properties to identify pure dust scenes. To investigate possible contamination by biomass burning aerosols, we use the dataset of Schuster et al. (2016, doi:10.5194/acp-16-1565-2016), who separately calculated the contribution of iron oxides and carbonaceous species to AERONET extinction and absorption optical depths. Our results show that: (1) the range of observed SSA (even without carbonaceous species) is larger than that resulting from homogeneous dust; (2) residual amounts of fine mode black and brown carbon may affect AERONET SSA even in seasons with limited biomass burning; (3) model SSA from our mineral scheme exceeds the AERONET range, possibly due also to an uncertain treatment of goethite. In summary, homogeneous dust cannot explain the variability of observed SSA, so regionally varying optical properties based on mineral content are necessary. Higher accuracy in soil mineralogy maps is needed to better reproduce SSA variations at regional scales. Also, distinct soil maps for hematite and goethite are required, given the high sensitivity of model SSA to their extreme optical properties.

V. Obiso↗

Technoeconomic analysis of perovskite/silicon tandem solar modules

Tandem photovoltaic (PV) modules offer an opportunity to improve the efficiency and energy yield of available solar resources compared with single-junction devices. Here, we present a cost model and sensitivity analysis of perovskite/silicon (Si) tandem modules to understand how design choices impact overall module costs. We find a minimum sustainable price (MSP) of $\$$0.428/W DC for our baseline two-terminal design and $\$$0.423/W DC for our baseline four-terminal design, each at a module efficiency of 25% and module production of 3 GW per year in the United States. We find that the choice of Si cell architecture, overall module efficiency, and factory throughput have the most significant impacts on cost and competitiveness. The dynamic model provided is designed for researchers, companies, and interested individuals to use and edit as needed to better understand the trade-offs among PV module technologies and enable targeted research to improve module design and fabrication.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

March 2003 EOS Aqua AMSR-E Arctic Sea Ice Field Campaign

An overview of the March 2003 coordinated sea ice field campaign in the Alaskan Arctic is presented with reference to the papers in this special section. This campaign is part of the program to validate the Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) sea ice products. Standard AMSR-E sea ice products include sea ice concentration, sea ice temperature, and snow depth on sea ice. The validation program consists of three elements, namely: 1) satellite data comparisons; 2) coordinated satellite/aircraft surface measurements; and 3) modeling and sensitivity analyses. Landsat-7 and RADARSAT observations were used in comparative studies with the retrieved AMSR-E sea ice concentrations. The aircraft sensors provided high-resolution microwave imagery of the surface, atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity, and digital records of sea ice conditions. When combined with in situ measurements, aircraft data were used to validate the AMSR-E sea ice temperature and snow-depth products. The modeling studies helped interpret the field-data comparisons, provided insight on the limitations of the AMSR-E sea ice algorithms, and suggested potential improvements to the AMSR-E retrieval algorithms.

Cavalieri, Donald J.↗

Meteoritic Constraints on Models of the Solar Nebula: The Abundances of Moderately Volatile Elements

The "moderately volatile" elements are those which condense (or evaporate) in the temperature range 650 - 1350 K, as a mix of material with solar abundances is cooled (or heated) tinder equilibrium conditions. Their relative abundances in chondritic meteorites are solar (or "cosmic", as defined by the composition of Cl meteorites) to within a factor of several, but vary within that range in a way that correlates remarkably well with condensation temperature, independent of chemical affinity. It has been argued that this correlation reflects a systematically selective process which favored the accretion of refractory material over volatile material from a cooling nebula. Wasson and Chou (Meteoritics 9, 69-94, 1974, and Wasson and co-authors in subsequent papers) suggested that condensation and settling of solids contemporaneously with the cooling and removal of nebular gas could produce the observed abundance patterns, but a quantitative model has been lacking. We show that the abundance patterns of the moderately volatile elements in chondritic meteorites can be produced, in some degree of quantitative detail, by models of the solar nebula that are designed to conform to observations of T Tauri stars and the global conservation laws. For example, even if the local surface density of the nebula is not decreasing, condensation and accretion of solids from radially inflowing gas in a cooling nebula can result in depletions of volatiles, relative to refractories, like those observed, The details of the calculated abundance patterns depend on (but are not especially sensitive to) model parameters, and can exhibit the variations that distinguish the meteorite classes. Thus it appears that nebula characteristics such as cooling rates, radial flow velocities, and particle accumulation rates can be quantitatively constrained by demanding that they conform to meteoritic data; and the models, in turn, can produce testable hypotheses regarding the time and location of the formation of the chondrite parent bodies and the planets.

Cassen, Patrick↗

Meteoritic Constraints on Models of the Solar Nebula: The Abundances of Moderately Volatile Elements

The "moderately volatile" elements are those which condense (or evaporate) in the temperature range 650 - 1350 K, as a mix of material with solar abundances is cooled (or heated) under equilibrium conditions. Their relative abundances in chondritic meteorites are solar (or "cosmic", as defined by tile composition of CI meteorites) to within a factor of several, but vary within that range in a way that correlates remarkably well with condensation temperature, independent of chemical affinity. It has been argued that this correlation reflects a systematically selective process which favored the accretion of refractory material over volatile material from a cooling nebula. Wasson and Chou suggested that condensation and settling of solids contemporaneously with the cooling and removal of nebular gas could produce tile observed abundance patterns, but a quantitative model has been lacking. We show that the abundance patterns of the moderately volatile elements in chondritic meteorites can be produced, in some degree of quantitative detail, by models of the solar nebula that are designed to conform to observations of T Tauri stars and the global conservation laws. For example, even if the local surface density of the nebula is not decreasing, condensation and accretion of solids from radially inflowing gas in a cooling nebula can result in depletions of volatiles, relative to refractories, like those observed. The details of the calculated abundance patterns depend on (but are not especially sensitive to) model parameters, and can exhibit the variations that distinguish the meteorite classes. Thus it appears that nebula characteristics Such as cooling rates, radial flow velocities, and particle accumulation rates can be quantitatively constrained by demanding that they conform to meteoritic data; and the models, in turn, can produce testable hypotheses regarding the time and location of the formation of the chondrite parent bodies and the planets.

Cassen, P.↗

FIREFLY: heat load and particle exhaust approximations for rapid evaluation of divertor designs

The divertor in a magnetic confinement fusion reactor is an essential component for power dissipation and particle removal. The FIREFLY package for rapid evaluation of divertor designs is presented as an extension of the FLARE code for field line reconstruction from a flux tube mesh. First, divertor loads are approximated with a simplified heat transport model. Neutralized particles are then sampled from the resulting load distribution, and the EIRENE code is used to track molecules and atoms in a plasma background while accounting for dissociation, charge exchange and ionization. Particles are removed on pumping surfaces in order to estimate the exhaust efficiency for a given divertor geometry. Optimization of the divertor geometry for more efficient particle exhaust is explored by using W7-X as an example, and the sensitivity to model parameters for the plasma background in the proxy calculations is evaluated.

mesh generation, magnetic field lines, scrape-off ↗

Sensitivity of a climatologically-driven sea ice model to the ocean heat flux

Ocean heat flux sensitivity was studied on a numerical model of sea ice covering the Weddell Sea region of the southern ocean. The model is driven by mean monthly climatological atmospheric variables. For each model run, the ocean heat flux is uniform in both space and time. Ocean heat fluxes below 20 W m to the minus 2 power do not provide sufficient energy to allow the ice to melt to its summertime thicknesses and concentrations by the end of the 14 month simulation, whereas ocean heat fluxes of 30 W m to the minus 2 power and above result in too much ice melt, producing the almost total disappearance of ice in the Weddell Sea by the end of the 14 months. These results are dependent on the atmospheric forcing fields.

Parkinson, C. L.↗

Modeling of infrared flux spectra from disk-shaped interstellar dust clouds

Although there is growing observational and theoretical evidence for many disk-shaped objects of astrophysical interest, spherical geometry is assumed in most radiative transfer models. Recently we generalized the quasi-diffusion method developed by Leung (1975, 1976) for spherical geometry to solve the problem of scattering, absorption, and reemission by dust grains in a medium of disk geometry. The method is applicable to a variety of astronomical sources whose dynamics are angular-momentum dominated and hence not accurately treated by spherical geometry, e.g., protoplanetary nebulae, circumstellar disks, bipolar-flow molecular clouds, accretion disks and disk galaxies. Using this technique and realistic grain opacities we construct theoretical models to determine self-consistently the dust temperature distribution and infrared emission from disk-shaped, quiescent dark globules heated externally by the intersteller radiation field. The effects of the following parameters on the temperature structure and the emergent spectrum are studied: grain type (graphite and silicate), optical depth, density inhomogeneity, and degree of disk flattening. The disk models are characterized by an aspect ratio and an optical depth at 0.55 microns. For inhomogeneous models, a gaussian density distribution is assumed such that the ratio of central to surface density is 100. To study the effects of source geometry, we also compare results for models with spherical and disk geometry. In this case both models have the same radius and central optical depth, the disk models having a 1:1 aspect ratio. While the dust temperature distributions in the two cases are very similar, the emergent flux for the disk model depends sensitively on the viewing angle. For clouds which are unresolved, one would expect, since the thermal emission is isotropic in the neighborhood of an emitting grain, and since the emission (in the far infrared) is optically thin, that the emergent flux spectrum should be characteristic only of the dust temperature, and independent of viewing angle. However, because of the lack of complete symmetry and the resulting radiation anisotropy, this is found not to be the case for the disk models. Angle is that it implies a large uncertainty in estimating the radiation dust mass.

Spagna, G. F., Jr.↗

A new model of monodeuterated ethane (C2H5D) spectrum: Enabling sensitive constraints on the D/H in ethane emission in comets

Similar to ethane (C2H6), monodeuterated ethane (C2H5D) has a bright series of Q-branches in the CH stretch region, between about 2960 - 3020 cm (3.38 - 3.31 µm). As the progressions in the different isotopes are slightly offset from one another, the new C2H5D model enables sensitive constrains of the D/H ratio in spectra from comets, in organics across the Solar System and beyond. Specifically, the D/H ratio of organic molecules in comets is a critical cosmogenic indicator, which not only provides insights into the formation processes of our Solar System, but also allows for a test of our understanding of solid-state astrochemistry. High D/H ratios are predicted in a number of astrochemical models, which can be benchmarked using the new spectroscopic information of C2H5D and C2H6. We present a quantum band model for C2H5D in the mid-infrared. Our model is based on rotationally resolved spectra of C2H5D and C2H6 obtained at 85K between 2050 - 3050 per cm (4.88 - 3.28 µm) using a Bruker IFS-125HR equipped with a cryogenic Herriott cell at JPL. High-level quantum chemical calculations were carried out at the CCSD(T)/ANO1 level of theory to aid vibrational assignments, with the anharmonic frequencies and vibrational corrections determined from second-order vibrational perturbation theory (VPT2). As a first demonstration of the applicability of the model, we obtained a stringent upper limit to the organic D/H ratio (18.2 VSMOW) in comet C/2007 W1 (Boattini) from high resolution fluorescence spectra obtained with Keck/NIRSPEC.

Kirstin D. Doney↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat Using WRF Proxy Fields

Objectives: Given that high-resolution WRF forecasts can capture the character of convective outbreaks, we seek to: 1. Create WRF forecasts of LTG threat (1-24 h), based on 2 proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area). 2. Calibrate each threat to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities. 3. Also evaluate threats for areal coverage, time variability. 4. Blend threats to optimize results. 5. Examine sensitivity to model mesh, microphysics. Methods: 1. Use high-resolution 2-km WRF simulations to prognose convection for a diverse series of selected case studies. 2. Evaluate graupel fluxes; vertically integrated ice (VII). 3. Calibrate WRF LTG proxies using peak total LTG flash rate densities from NALMA; relationships look linear, with regression line passing through origin. 4. Truncate low threat values to make threat areal coverage match NALMA flash extent density obs. 5. Blend proxies to achieve optimal performance 6. Study CAPS 4-km ensembles to evaluate sensitivities.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Coronal magnetic field diagnostics via the Hanle effect of Lyman series lines

The magnetic field plays a major role in the physics of the solar corona. However, there are no direct measurements of this physical parameter. We describe a method that can provide the most direct determination of the vector magnetic field in the extended corona (i.e., at heliocentric heights between 1.2 R(solar radius) and 2.0 R(solar radius)). The method is based on polarimetric observations of UV lines of the Lyman series, that is, Lyman alpha (Ly-alpha), lambda 1216 A, Lyman beta (Ly-beta), lambda 1025 A, and Lyman gamma (Ly-gamma), lambda 972 A. These lines have a collisional and a resonantly scattered component. Linear polarization is induced in the resonant component by the anisotropy in the chromospheric radiation field that illuminates the corona. Magnetic fields can be suitably determined through the effects that they induce on this resonance polarization (Hanle effect). The Hanle effect of the Ly-alpha is sensitive to field strengths in the 10 - 100 gauss range. The resonance polarization of Ly-beta and Ly-gamma is sensitive, through the Hanle effect, to fields with strengths between 3 - 30 gauss, and 0.3 - 6 gauss, respectively. We describe a new method for separating the resonant from the collisional component of the Ly-beta and Ly-gamma; the method is based on the approximation, valid within 10%, that the collisional component of the Ly-alpha is negligible, in typical coronal conditions. From the intensity and the polarization of the resonant components of these Lyman lines, the strength and direction of coronal fields can be determined. We model the sensitivity of Hanle-effect diagnostics for different coronal structures (e.g., coronal holes and loops).

Fineschi, S.↗