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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1976

A global average model of atmospheric aerosols for radiative transfer calculations

A global average model is proposed for the size distribution, chemical composition, and optical thickness of stratospheric and tropospheric aerosols. This aerosol model is designed to specify the input parameters to global average radiative transfer calculations which assume the atmosphere is horizontally homogeneous. The model subdivides the atmosphere at multiples of 3 km, where the surface layer extends from the ground to 3 km, the upper troposphere from 3 to 12 km, and the stratosphere from 12 to 45 km. A list of assumptions made in construction of the model is presented and discussed along with major model uncertainties. The stratospheric aerosol is modeled as a liquid mixture of 75% H2SO4 and 25% H2O, while the tropospheric aerosol consists of 60% sulfate and 40% soil particles above 3 km and of 50% sulfate, 35% soil particles, and 15% sea salt below 3 km. Implications and consistency of the model are discussed.

Toon, O. B.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Robust time and frequency domain estimation methods in adaptive control

A robust identification method was developed for use in an adaptive control system. The type of estimator is called the robust estimator, since it is robust to the effects of both unmodeled dynamics and an unmeasurable disturbance. The development of the robust estimator was motivated by a need to provide guarantees in the identification part of an adaptive controller. To enable the design of a robust control system, a nominal model as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling uncertainty associated with this nominal model must be provided. Two estimation methods are presented for finding parameter estimates, and, hence, a nominal model. One of these methods is based on the well developed field of time-domain parameter estimation. In a second method of finding parameter estimates, a type of weighted least-squares fitting to a frequency-domain estimated model is used. The frequency-domain estimator is shown to perform better, in general, than the time-domain parameter estimator. In addition, a methodology for finding a frequency-domain bounding function on the disturbance is used to compute a frequency-domain bounding function on the additive modeling error due to the effects of the disturbance and the use of finite-length data. The performance of the robust estimator in both open-loop and closed-loop situations is examined through the use of simulations.

Lamaire, Richard Orville↗
NASA NTRS1988

Stratospheric responses to solar ultraviolet variations - Comparisons with photochemical models

At latitudes and altitudes where transport effects on ozone mixing ratio can be neglected, ozone and temperature responses to short-term changes in solar ultraviolet flux can be used to calculate implied bounds on two basic photochemical parameters: the odd oxygen photochemical relaxation time and the chemical sensitivity of odd oxygen to local temperature changes. Seasonally averaged values of these parameters are derived from response measurements and are compared with model calculations between 0.7 and 4 mbar at tropical latitudes. Results are in agreement within measurement and model uncertainties at all pressure levels. Model values of mean ozone and of the response of ozone to perturbations are functions of the same photochemical data. Therefore this agreement provides a constraint which should be considered when changes are proposed in model input data for the purpose of improving agreement between measured and calculated high-altitude ozone.

Hood, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Design of a flight control system for a highly maneuverable aircraft using mu synthesis

This paper presents a methodology for the design of longitudinal controllers for high performance aircraft operating over large ranges of angle of attack. The technique used for controller design is structured singular value or mu synthesis. The controller is designed to minimize the weighted H-infinity norm of the error between the aircraft response and the desired handling quality specifications without saturating the control actuators. The mu synthesis procedure ensures that the stability and performance of the aircraft is robust to parameter variations and modeling uncertainties included in the design model. Nonlinear simulations demonstrate that the controller satisfies handling quality requirements and provides excellent tracking of pilot inputs over a wide range of transient angles of attack and Mach number.

Reiner, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling for Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of system thermal-hydraulics code using critical flow experimental data

The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology in nuclear system thermal-hydraulic studies necessitates a comprehensive understanding of uncertainties in system code predictions. The forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) process involves the propagation of input uncertainties through the computational models to obtain uncertainties in the outputs. To this end, achieving an accurate estimation of input uncertainties is important, which is the focus of inverse UQ (IUQ). Traditionally, research in Bayesian IUQ within the nuclear engineering domain has largely relied on single-level Bayesian inference. While being effective for relatively small datasets, this approach encounters limitations for cases with large datasets. The use of a single-level model may prove inefficient, as the resultant posterior distributions can significantly differ when distinct subsets of data are employed. To address this issue, we employ an hierarchical Bayesian model for IUQ. Furthermore, this approach involves organizing observations into different groups based on the test conditions, thereby accommodating varying calibration parameters across these distinct groups. In this study, we developed and implemented a hierarchical Bayesian IUQ method to consider the grouping effect of critical flow measurement data from various geometries. Comparing the outcomes of IUQ under different selections of test data using hierarchical Bayesian IUQ against those obtained from single-level Bayesian IUQ, the forward propagation of hierarchical Bayesian IUQ results demonstrates a notably improved agreement with the experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, is a meteorological dataset providing high-resolution time series, including interannual variability and model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point to indicate ranges of possible wind speeds. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: (1) Numerical simulations of wind speed and other meteorological variables covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska, with high-resolution (5-minute [min], 2-kilometer [km]) data for 3 years (2018-2020): WTK-LED CONUS, WTK-LED Alaska. (2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratory covering North America, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km, hourly dataset covering 20 years (2001-2020): WTK-LED Climate. (3) Specific long-term, high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the U.S. coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset: NOW-23. The data for Hawaii include land-based data and are part of WTK-LED Hawaii. Because the accuracy of simulations from a mesoscale model, such as WRF, varies depending on the location and weather situation, and can reach up to several m/s for wind speed, we provide simulated wind speed uncertainty estimates to the community to be used in conjunction with the deterministic model simulations. This dataset was developed to satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have. Based on our validation results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED as shown in "WTK-LED Use Cases" resource below.

Array↗
NASA NTRS2022

NESC Peer Review of Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Integrated Vehicle Modal Test, Model Correlation, Development Flight Instrumentation (DFI) and Flight Loads Readiness; Uncertainty Propagation for Model Validation Sub-task

This report details a sub-task (regarding Uncertainty Propagation for Model Validation) from a NASA Engineering and Safety Center assessment that is a multi-year activity spanning the complete development of the Space Launch System integrated vehicle structural dynamic models, and the development of the certification of flight readiness for the Artemis 1 and Artemis 2 vehicles and their variants.

Exploration Systems Development; Development Fligh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance-based earthquake early warning for tall buildings

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system aims to issue an advance warning to residents on the West Coast of the United States seconds before the ground shaking arrives, if the expected ground shaking exceeds a certain threshold. However, residents in tall buildings may experience much greater motion due to the dynamic response of the buildings. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to extend ShakeAlert to include the contribution of building response to provide a more accurate estimation of the expected shaking intensity for tall buildings. Currently, the supposedly ideal solution of analyzing detailed finite element models of buildings under predicted ground-motion time histories is not theoretically or practically feasible. The authors have recently investigated existing simple methods to estimate peak floor acceleration (PFA) and determined these simple formulas are not practically suitable. Instead, this article explores another approach by extending the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) to EEW, considering that every component involved in building response prediction is uncertain in the EEW scenario. Additionally, while this idea is not new and has been proposed by other researchers, it has two shortcomings: (1) the simple beam model used for response prediction is prone to modeling uncertainty, which has not been quantified, and (2) the ground motions used for probabilistic demand models are not suitable for EEW applications. In this article, we address these two issues by incorporating modeling errors into the parameters of the beam model and using a new set of ground motions, respectively. We demonstrate how this approach could practically work using data from a 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles. Using the criteria and thresholds employed by previous researchers, we show that if peak ground acceleration (PGA) is accurately estimated, this approach can predict the expected level of human comfort in tall buildings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

pnnl/SNAP

In this work, we detail two uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods that provide complementary information. Readout ensembling, by finetuning only the readout layers of an ensemble of foundation models, provides information about model uncertainty. Amending the final readout layer to predict upper and lower quantiles replaces point predictions with distributional predictions, which provide information about uncertainty within the underlying training data. We demonstrate our approach with the MACE-MP-0 model, applying UQ to both the foundation model and a series of finetuned models. The uncertainties produced by the ensemble and quantile methods are demonstrated to be distinct measures by which the quality of the NNP output can be judged.

Pope, Jenna (Bilbrey) [Pacific Northwest National ↗
NASA NTRS1992

Line-of-sight control of the CSI evolutionary model - mu control

The design, analysis, and simulation of a control law that guarantees a fine pointing performance under external disturbances and model uncertainties are investigated. The authors examine the achievable performance and modeling errors for the control-structure interaction (CSI) evolutionary model structure and highlight the importance of accurate knowledge of structural frequencies and damping values for very lightly damped structures. Numerical results indicate that a limited but significant line-of-sight pointing performance robustness can be attained in spite of modeled structured and unstructured uncertainties in the system. The simulation results reported demonstrate typical performance levels, types of uncertainties and their magnitudes, and design tradeoffs for a realistic laboratory model of a large flexible space structure.

Lim, K. B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

YAHFC: A Code Framework to Model Nuclear Reactions and Estimate Correlated Uncertainties

Reaction modeling is a key ingredient in designing experiments and interpreting their results, and is an essential component in the process of evaluating nuclear data and assembling nuclear data libraries used in nuclear technology applications. Typically, experimental data are available only for a handful of reaction channels and theory models are used to fill in the gaps. In addition, theory is often called upon as the arbitrator between discrepant data. Most importantly, theory and modeling are required for an accurate determination of uncertainties in the evaluated data and the correlations between the multiple channels. A fast, accurate, and flexible modeling capability has been developed at LLNL with the code system YAHFC (Yet Another Hauser-Feshbach Code). YAHFC is a Monte Carlo, Hauser-Feshbach code framework, making full use of dynamic memory allocation, derived types, and parallel computing. YAHFC can generate events to simulate experiments and is guiding experiments designed to measure inelastic neutron scattering from actinide targets. YAHFC is also being used to analyze decays from surrogate experiments, thereby enabling the inference of reaction cross sections inaccessible by direct measurement. Finally, by modeling nuclear reactions with constraints from experimental data, YAHFC can deliver complete nuclear data libraries, with evaluated uncertainties, using the modernized Generalized Nuclear Data Structure (GNDS).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Autonomous frequency domain identification: Theory and experiment

The analysis, design, and on-orbit tuning of robust controllers require more information about the plant than simply a nominal estimate of the plant transfer function. Information is also required concerning the uncertainty in the nominal estimate, or more generally, the identification of a model set within which the true plant is known to lie. The identification methodology that was developed and experimentally demonstrated makes use of a simple but useful characterization of the model uncertainty based on the output error. This is a characterization of the additive uncertainty in the plant model, which has found considerable use in many robust control analysis and synthesis techniques. The identification process is initiated by a stochastic input u which is applied to the plant p giving rise to the output. Spectral estimation (h = P sub uy/P sub uu) is used as an estimate of p and the model order is estimated using the produce moment matrix (PMM) method. A parametric model unit direction vector p is then determined by curve fitting the spectral estimate to a rational transfer function. The additive uncertainty delta sub m = p - unit direction vector p is then estimated by the cross spectral estimate delta = P sub ue/P sub uu where e = y - unit direction vectory y is the output error, and unit direction vector y = unit direction vector pu is the computed output of the parametric model subjected to the actual input u. The experimental results demonstrate the curve fitting algorithm produces the reduced-order plant model which minimizes the additive uncertainty. The nominal transfer function estimate unit direction vector p and the estimate delta of the additive uncertainty delta sub m are subsequently available to be used for optimization of robust controller performance and stability.

Yam, Yeung↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗
DOE OSTI2018

Understanding the Impacts of Biomass Blending on the Uncertainty of Hydrolyzed Sugar Yield from a Stochastic Perspective

Feedstock price and availability are key challenges for biorefinery development and biomass blending has been suggested as a route to overcome these limitations. However, the impacts of feedstock blending on the variability of yields of hydrolyzed sugar remained unclear. This study quantifies the uncertainties in the sugar yields from the blends of corn stover, switchgrass, and grass clippings by considering both variable and model uncertainties. The results indicate that feedstock blending reduces the uncertainties in sugar yields and delivers feedstock of more uniform quality. A further investigation on xxx demonstrates that the reduction in overall uncertainty is achieved by reduced compositional uncertainties of blended feedstock. Based on these results, the optimization of blending ratios was performed with respect to three objectives: (1) probability of meeting the sugar yield target; (2) expected sugar yields; and (3) sugar yield per unit feedstock expense, while satisfying constraints of feedstock availability and cost. In conclusion, the optimization method developed in this study, is readily applied to other combinations of feedstocks, biofuels production processes, and constraints.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Cosmological parameter uncertainties from SALT-II type Ia supernova light curve models

We use simulated type Ia supernova (SN Ia) samples, including both photometry and spectra, to perform the first direct validation of cosmology analysis using the SALT-II light curve model. This validation includes residuals from the light curve training process, systematic biases in SN Ia distance measurements, and a bias on the dark energy equation of state parameter w. Using the SN-analysis package SNANA, we simulate and analyze realistic samples corresponding to the data samples used in the SNLS3 analysis: ∼120 low-redshift (z < 0.1) SNe Ia, ∼255 Sloan Digital Sky Survey SNe Ia (z < 0.4), and ∼290 SNLS SNe Ia (z ≤ 1). To probe systematic uncertainties in detail, we vary the input spectral model, the model of intrinsic scatter, and the smoothing (i.e., regularization) parameters used during the SALT-II model training. Using realistic intrinsic scatter models results in a slight bias in the ultraviolet portion of the trained SALT-II model, and w biases (w {sub input} – w {sub recovered}) ranging from –0.005 ± 0.012 to –0.024 ± 0.010. These biases are indistinguishable from each other within the uncertainty; the average bias on w is –0.014 ± 0.007.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗