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DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generalized framework for likelihood-based field-level inference of growth rate from velocity and density fields

Measuring the growth rate of large-scale structures ( f ) as a function of redshift has the potential to break degeneracies between modified gravity and dark energy models, when combined with expansion-rate probes. Direct estimates of peculiar velocities of galaxies have attracted interest as a means of estimating fσ 8 . In particular, field-level methods can be used to fit the field nuisance parameter along with cosmological parameters simultaneously. This article aims to provide the community with a unified framework for the theoretical modeling of the likelihood-based field-level inference by performing fast field covariance calculations for velocity and density fields. Our purpose is to lay the foundations for a nonlinear extension of the likelihood-based method at the field level. We have developed a generalized framework, implemented in the dedicated software flip to perform a likelihood-based inference of fσ 8 . We derived a new field covariance model, which includes wide-angle corrections. We also included the models previously described in the literature inside our framework. We compared their performance against ours, and we validated our model by comparing it with the two-point statistics of a recent N-body simulation. The tests we performed have allowed us to validate our software and determine the appropriate wavenumber range to integrate our covariance model and its validity in terms of separation. Our framework allows for a wider wavenumber coverage to be used in our calculations than in previous works, which is particularly interesting for nonlinear model extensions. Finally, our generalized framework allows us to efficiently perform a survey geometry-dependent Fisher forecast of the fσ 8 parameter. We show that the Fisher forecast method we developed gives an error bar that is 30% closer to a full likelihood-based estimation than a standard volume Fisher forecast.

Ravoux, Corentin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Control for Efficient Load Shifting with Thermal Energy Storage in Existing HVAC Systems

This project developed the integration of a direct-contact heat exchanger (DCHX) based thermal energy storage (TES) system with a chiller–air handling unit (AHU) plant to evaluate its potential for reducing building energy costs. Detailed physical models of the TES unit, building envelope, and HVAC components were developed alongside simplified control-oriented models to support both high-fidelity simulation and real-time optimization. Two control strategies were implemented and compared: a rule-based control (RBC) aligned with utility time-of-use (ToU) rates, and a model predictive control (MPC) framework leveraging forecasts of building load, weather, and internal gains.Simulation results show that the RBC strategy reduced daily electricity costs by around 30% by shifting cooling production from on-peak to off-peak hours. In contrast, the MPC strategy achieved significantly greater performance, reducing daily operating costs by up to 44% and peak-hour costs by more than 60%. Both strategies maintained indoor thermal comfort within acceptable limits, with MPC further improving load distribution and reducing equipment cycling.The outcomes confirm that TES integration, particularly when coordinated with advanced predictive control, can provide substantial cost savings and on-peak demand reduction. . These findings directly support the U.S. Department of Energy’s goals for grid-interactive efficient buildings and demonstrate the potential of TES-enabled HVAC systems for scalable deployment across the commercial building.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Control for Efficient Load Shifting with Thermal Energy Storage in Existing HVAC Systems

This project developed the integration of a direct-contact heat exchanger (DCHX) based thermal energy storage (TES) system with a chiller–air handling unit (AHU) plant to evaluate its potential for reducing building energy costs. Detailed physical models of the TES unit, building envelope, and HVAC components were developed alongside simplified control-oriented models to support both high-fidelity simulation and real-time optimization. Two control strategies were implemented and compared: a rule-based control (RBC) aligned with utility time-of-use (ToU) rates, and a model predictive control (MPC) framework leveraging forecasts of building load, weather, and internal gains. Simulation results show that the RBC strategy reduced daily electricity costs by around 30% by shifting cooling production from on-peak to off-peak hours. In contrast, the MPC strategy achieved significantly greater performance, reducing daily operating costs by up to 44% and peak-hour costs by more than 60%. Both strategies maintained indoor thermal comfort within acceptable limits, with MPC further improving load distribution and reducing equipment cycling. The outcomes confirm that TES integration, particularly when coordinated with advanced predictive control, can provide substantial cost savings and on-peak demand reduction. . These findings directly support the U.S. Department of Energy’s goals for grid-interactive efficient buildings and demonstrate the potential of TES-enabled HVAC systems for scalable deployment across the commercial building.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Linking Threat Agents to Targeted Organizations: A Pipeline for Enhanced Cybersecurity Risk Metrics

In this study, we present a methodology leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to transform Cybersecurity Threat Intelligence (CTI) narratives into actionable insights for individual organizations. Our approach automates the extraction of machine-readable adversary SKRAM (Skills, Knowledge, Resources, Authorities, and Motivation) attributes from open-source reports, extending LLM utility beyond typical interactions. This innovation enables precise, automated assessments of cybersecurity risks posed by various adversaries. Using a chain-of-thought and multi-shot prompting strategy, our methodology advances the automation of cybersecurity feature extraction for new machine-learning models that predict the risk of adversary targeting. This approach is refined using a substantial dataset of over 150 analyst-validated threat reports and synthetic organizational data from 900 companies. Here, by bootstrapping the training data with a rule-based heuristic over synthetic data, we have developed a high-accuracy machine-learning model that allows entities to dynamically prioritize threats and defensive actions.

Cyber Threat Intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2026

Recent progress in atomic-scale controlled plasma processing

Atomic-scale control in plasma processing is becoming increasingly critical for fabricating of advanced semiconductor devices, particularly as the industry shifts toward three-dimensional (3D) architectures and high-aspect-ratio (HAR) structures. This review presents a comprehensive overview of recent developments in atomic-scale controlled plasma processes, organized along two key directions: the hierarchical structure of plasma–surface interactions and the generational evolution of atomic layer processing (ALP) technologies. We examined the gas phase, where molecular design enables selective generation of ions and radicals; the boundary layer, where transport phenomena govern species delivery into nanoscale features, and the surface, where temperature-dependent reactions and cyclic processing determine etching selectivity and precision. Building on this foundation, we outline five generations of ALP—from thermal atomic layer deposition to transport-aware, temporally and structurally decoupled processes—highlighting the increasing sophistication of process control. The review further explores the transition from empirical recipe development to science-based, data-driven methodologies. By integrating quantum-chemical modeling, advanced diagnostics, and machine learning, we demonstrated how predictive models can link plasma species composition to process outcomes, enabling autonomous and adaptive control strategies. Finally, this review discusses the broader societal implications of plasma process innovation through the E4 quartet: energy and resource efficiency, environmental sustainability, evolutionary advancement, and educational promotion. These principles guide the development of sustainable and intelligent atomic-scale manufacturing technologies that are not only technically advanced but also socially responsible.

Ishikawa, Kenji [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)] (ORCID:0000↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and Evaluation of a General Drag Model for Gas-Solid Flows via Deep Learning

This project presents the development and evaluation of a general drag model for gas–solid multiphase flows using deep learning techniques. A comprehensive database of more than 4,000 experimental and numerical data points for spherical and non spherical particles was compiled, incorporating geometric features such as sphericity, aspect ratio, and orientation. Several predictive approaches—including traditional em pirical correlations, machine learning, and deep neural networks—were benchmarked, with the proposed Drag Coefficient Correlation-aided Deep Neural Network (DCC DNN) demonstrating superior accuracy. To account for particle–particle interactions, additional drag data were generated using CFD-based simulations of packed and flu idized beds, leading to the development of a retrained model capable of incorporat ing volume fraction effects. Integration of the trained model with the MFiX CFD solver was achieved using FTorch, enabling drag predictions during discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Validation against experimental data for single particles and fluidized beds confirmed the model’s improved predictive ability, particularly for non-spherical geometries. While the model performed strongly under fluidized con ditions, limitations remained in unfluidized regimes, suggesting a need for expanded datasets. Overall, this study demonstrates the feasibility of combining deep learning with physics-informed CFD to improve drag modeling for gas–solid flows, with promis ing implications for scaling multiphase simulations in industrial applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Unknown Waveform Detection by Learning Intra and Inter-domain Dependencies with Advanced Attention Fusion Mechanisms

Detection of unknown waveforms in mission-critical communications is a crucial area of interest for the Department of Energy (DoE). Traditional methods and recent deep learning-based approaches often assume that the training set includes all possible classes, which is impractical for detecting new waveforms. This limitation gives rise to the problem of open-set recognition (OSR), which involves correctly identifying known classes while detecting and rejecting unknown or unseen classes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel dual-domain complex-valued neural architecture that jointly processes time-domain and frequency-domain signal representations using transformer mechanisms. A transformer model is a deep learning architecture that uses self-attention mechanisms to process and learn relationships in sequential data. Our model employs a cosine similarity loss to extract domain-specific features and incorporates a transformer architecture in the latent space to weigh the importance of different features from the time and frequency domains. The transformer layer includes stacked self-attention and cross-attention modules to learn intra-domain and inter-domain dependencies, creating a more holistic signal representation. An attention-based fusion module intelligently combines the time and frequency-domain features using multi-head attention, enabling the network to learn the optimal feature for each domain in each input signal. Quantitative results demonstrate the impact of these architectural choices on overall performance, showing significant improvement after incorporating self and cross-attention modules and using complex attention fusion over simple weighted fusion. Our ongoing work will focus on addressing the limitations of threshold-based OSR methods by developing a novel generative framework that integrates a conditional diffusion probabilistic model (DPM). DPM is a generative framework that learns to synthesize complex data by reversing a gradual noising process using a neural network trained to denoise step-by-step. Our goal is to leverage the inherent strengths of DPMs for identifying unknown signals more robustly. One primary advantage of using a DPM is its ability to provide a more reliable anomaly score based on the model's reconstruction error, rather than relying solely on classifier confidence. Additionally, the iterative denoising process of DPMs makes this approach naturally resilient to low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) conditions, where traditional methods often fail. By implementing this generative framework, we aim to enhance the model's capability to accurately detect unknown waveforms and maintain performance in challenging environments.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of supplementary cementitious materials on the degradation of cement-based barriers in radioactive waste repository: A case study in Korea

This study focuses on investigating the chemical degradation characteristics of cementitious barriers used in low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste repository by reactive transport modeling. The impact of the blending with supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) in the barriers on the chemical degradation was evaluated to find the optimum barrier design. A number of different barrier designs were examined by replacing ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by SCMs (i.e., fly ash, silica fume, and blast-furnace slag). The simulation results showed that silica fume blended barrier has better durability against chemical degradation by rainwater compared to fly ash or blast-furnace slag blended barriers. In addition, the chemical durability of silica fume-based barrier increased with increasing replacement level up to about 20 %. It seems that the amount of formed calcium silicate hydrate (CSH) in the initial cement-based barrier highly affects the overall chemical durability. The newly developed reactive transport model demonstrated its capability for understanding the barrier performance and investigating the optimal design of the barrier system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization based process modeling of an anaerobic membrane bioreactor system: Application to swine wastewater

To maintain current levels of consumption in the economy with the dwindling supply of non-renewable material and energy, alternative resource streams more traditionally viewed as waste streams must be considered. Fermentation of high-strength wastewaters is one such pathway that allows for the recovery of energy, nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon compounds. Anaerobic membrane bioreactors (AnMBRs) are an emerging technology that allow for the digestion of wastewater in a much smaller footprint than traditional anaerobic digesters. Adoption of this technology into industry has been limited by membrane capital and cleaning costs, but these costs may be offset through the recovery of valuable products. To evaluate the viability of AnMBR technology in the context of swine wastewater treatment, an optimization-based process model built upon Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) has been developed. Modeling results show that a swine wastewater stream provides potential for net positive energy generation from the AnMBR system in most cases. Sensitivity analyses around important variables were conducted to determine focus areas for future research into AnMBR technology and evaluate the robustness of the model to microbial variables that may change with different microbial communities.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Polarization Control via Artificial Optical Nonlinearity in Dielectric Metasurfaces

Nonlinear optical phenomena are generally governed by geometry in matter systems, as they depend on the spatial arrangement of atoms within materials or molecules. Metasurfaces, through precisely designed geometries on a subwavelength scale, allow the optical response of a material to be tailored far beyond its natural properties. Therefore, metasurfaces are highly appealing for enabling the engineering of nonlinear optical interactions. Current studies of nonlinear metasurfaces predominantly focus on the phase control of the generated light. Nonetheless, investigating the tensorial nature of the nonlinearity of metasurfaces and its effect on the polarization of the generated light is critical to fully unlocking a range of applications, such as nonlinear vector beam generation and nonlinear polarization imaging. Here, we study the artificial optical nonlinearity of a dielectric metasurface originating from its meta-atom symmetry and describe the third-order nonlinear behavior by considering the polarization degree of freedom. We establish an effective nonlinear medium model that serves as a design toolbox for developing amorphous silicon-based geometric metasurfaces with customizable features for third-harmonic generation. We further extract quantitative values of the artificial nonlinear susceptibility tensor elements related to the investigated nonlinear process and geometry. The implemented functional devices demonstrate the versatility of dielectric metasurfaces in shaping the emitted light in terms of amplitude, phase, and polarization for the precise engineering of advanced nonlinear architectures targeting applications in nonlinear imaging and complex light generation.

Diffraction↗

DOE OSTI2025

From disorganized data to emergent dynamic models: Questionnaires to partial differential equations

Starting with sets of disorganized observations of spatially varying and temporally evolving systems, obtained at different (also disorganized) sets of parameters, we demonstrate the data-driven derivation of parameter dependent, evolutionary partial differential equation (PDE) models capable of generating the data. This tensor type of data is reminiscent of shuffled (multidimensional) puzzle tiles. The independent variables for the evolution equations (their “space” and “time”) as well as their effective parameters are all emergent , i.e. determined in a data-driven way from our disorganized observations of behavior in them. We use a diffusion map based questionnaire approach to build a smooth parametrization of our emergent space/time/parameter space for the data. This approach iteratively processes the data by successively observing them on the “space,” the “time” and the “parameter” axes of a tensor. Once the data become organized, we use machine learning (here, neural networks) to approximate the operators governing the evolution equations in this emergent space. Our illustrative examples are based (i) on a simple advection–diffusion model; (ii) on a previously developed vertex-plus-signaling model of Drosophila embryonic development; and (iii) on two complex dynamic network models (one neuronal and one coupled oscillator model) for which no obvious smooth embedding geometry is known a priori. This allows us to discuss features of the process like symmetry breaking, translational invariance, and autonomousness of the emergent PDE model, as well as its interpretability.

generative models↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Decadal Dynamics of Wetland Methane Emissions Revealed by Knowledge‐Guided Machine Learning

Measurement of methane fluxes (FCH 4 ) from natural systems, such as wetlands, has lagged far behind carbon dioxide fluxes. Short and fragmented wetland FCH 4 data limit our ability to assess its long-term dynamics and potential climate feedbacks. Extrapolating short-term FCH 4 records to recent decades remains challenging for both process-based models and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches. Here, we develop a knowledge-guided ML framework that integrates eddy covariance (EC) FCH 4 observations, field warming experiments, and biogeochemical knowledge to reconstruct the long-term FCH 4 budgets and trends. Focusing on the 11 longest EC monitoring sites in the AmeriFlux network, we found considerable variability in multi-decadal trends of wetland FCH 4 , with increases up to 14% per decade from 2000 to 2024. We also found that the strength of these increasing trends declines from high to low latitudes, highlighting the vulnerability of northern wetlands. This work presents novel and robust reconstructions of long-term wetland FCH 4 , offering critical benchmark datasets for bottom-up ecosystem models and advancing fundamental understanding of wetland biogeochemistry.

AmeriFlux site↗

DOE OSTI2025

Open database for GPD analyses

This article summarizes the main ideas behind creating an open database proposed for use in the exploration of generalized parton distributions (GPDs). This lightweight database is well suited for GPD phenomenology and is designed to store both experimental and lattice-QCD data. It can also aid in benchmarking GPD-related developments, such as GPD models. The database utilizes a new data format based on the YAML serialization language, enabling the storage of essential information for modern analyses, such as replica values. It includes interfaces for both Python and C++, allowing straightforward integration with analysis codes.

Burkert, V. D. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelera↗

DOE OSTI2025

Paraview-MCP

This project provides a streamlined way for users to interact with and control powerful scientific visualization software (ParaView) through a conversational interface. By developing an automated "Model Context Protocol" (MCP) server with a Python-based ParaView manager, the system allows users to seamlessly load and visualize complex datasets, explore visualization options with AI assistance, and optimize visualization output in a close loop. This is achieved by issuing intuitive, natural-language commands. The result is a user-friendly interface that integrates high-level conversation and scriptable data visualization, making scientific visualization tools more accessible to a broad audience.

Liu, Shusen [Lawrence Livermore National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unified differentiable digital twin for the IOTA/FAST facility

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or produce insights about accelerator state. One notable example of additional information are gradients of physical observables with respect to design parameters produced by differentiable simulations. The IOTA/FAST facility has recently begun a program to implement and experimentally validate a unified start-to-end differentiable digital twin to serve as a virtual accelerator test stand, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. In this contribution we will discuss our plans and progress. Specifically, we will cover the selection and benchmarking of both physics and ML codes, the development of generic interfaces between device models and surrogate or physics-based sections, and the export of the parameters through either a deterministic event loop or a fully asynchronous EPICS soft input/output controller. We will also discuss challenges in model calibration and uncertainty quantification, as well as future plans to support larger proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗