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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Cascade energy optimization for waste heat recovery in distributed energy systems

The efficiency of distributed energy systems can be significantly increased through waste heat recovery from industry or power generation. The technologies used for this process are typically dependent on the quality and temperature grades of waste heat. To maximize the efficiency of cascade heat utilization, it is important to optimize the choice of waste heat recovery technologies and their operation. Here, a detailed mixed integer linear programming optimization model is proposed for waste heat recovery in a district-scale microgrid. The model can distinguish waste heat quality for planning and operation optimization of distributed energy systems. Heat utilization technologies are formulated in this developed model and categorized in different temperature grades. The developed model is validated using four typical cases under different settings of system operation and business models. It is found that the optimization model, by distinguishing waste heat temperature, can increase energy cost savings by around 5%, compared to models that do not consider waste heat temperature grades. Additionally, the results indicate that the developed model can provide more realistic configuration and technologies dispatch.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fusion Fuel Cycle Inventory Reduction Studies Using a Processing-Time–Based Discrete-Time Interval Model

Developing a Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP) design that minimizes risks due to tritium in-process inventory (IPI) is an important concern for the operation of commercial devices. This becomes even more of concern since an FPP will be breeding more tritium than is burned in the reactor for sustainability. The IPI is the tritium moving through the system that is not in the storage and delivery subsystem. Here a process model that solves time-dependent differential equations based on processing times was used to investigate the reduction of the IPI of a potential fuel cycle design. The impact of new and more efficient technologies such as direct internal recycling (DIR), metal foil pumps, continuous pumping, improved isotope separation, and hydrogen separating continuous pumps on IPI was investigated by adjusting subsystem processing times and material flow streams. It was shown that any of the insertions of DIR studied in this paper caused a reduction in the total IPI of the system and proved to be the optimal way to reduce the IPI in the system. Fuel cycle modifications near the torus, such as a coupled DIR and improved pumping systems, produced the largest reductions in tritium inventory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geochemical narrowing of cement fracture aperture during multiphase flow of supercritical CO2 and brine

For carbon capture and storage operations, wells are used as a necessary conduit for injecting CO2 at depth, but they can also act as leakage conduits if the cement seals are compromised. The specific objective of this research was to investigate the nature of self-healing of a fracture within cement under multiphase flow of CO2 and brine, and to compare this to a newly developed model. This was accomplished through a laboratory investigation, flowing reacting supercritical CO2 and brine through a cement fracture with multiphase flow. The influent end of the fracture was degraded as evidenced by the formation of cracks across the surface. At the effluent end of the fracture, the initial aperture of 137 µm was reduced to 50 µm. This reduction by 87 µm was similar to results from a recently developed model tested in this study, which predicted an aperture reduction of 80 µm. Our results demonstrated that the model accurately predicted the reactions which occurred in this multiphase flow system.

wellbore, cement, fracture, multiphase-flow, super↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Gas-Induced Motion of a Piston in a Vibrated Liquid-Filled Housing

We present that models and experiments are developed to investigate how a small amount of gas can cause large rectified motion of a piston in a vibrated liquid-filled housing when piston drag depends on piston position so that damping is nonlinear even for viscous flow. Two bellows serve as surrogates for the upper and lower gas regions maintained by Bjerknes forces. Without the bellows, piston motion is highly damped. With the bellows, the piston, the liquid, and the two bellows move together so that almost no liquid is forced through the gaps between the piston and the housing. This Couette mode has low damping and a strong resonance: the piston and the liquid vibrate against the spring formed by the two bellows (like the pneumatic spring formed by the gas regions). Near this resonance, the piston motion becomes large, and the nonlinear damping produces a large rectified force that pushes the piston downward against its spring suspension. A recently developed model based on quasi-steady Stokes flow is applied to this system. A drift model is developed from the full model and used to determine the equilibrium piston position as a function of vibration amplitude and frequency. Corresponding experiments are performed for two different systems. In the two-spring system, the piston is suspended against gravity between upper and lower springs. Lastly, in the spring-stop system, the piston is pushed up against a stop by a lower spring. Model and experimental results agree closely for both systems and for different bellows properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Proposal of a Novel Approach to Developing Material Models for Micro-scale Composites Based on Testing and Modeling of Macro-scale Composites

The Los Alamos National Laboratory's Weapon Systems Engineering division's Advanced Engineering Analysis group employs material constitutive models of composites for use in simulations of components and assemblies of interest. Experimental characterization, modeling and prediction of the macro-scale (i.e. continuum) behaviors of these composite materials is generally difficult because they exhibit nonlinear behaviors on the meso- (e.g. micro-) and macro-scales. Furthermore, it can be difficult to measure and model the mechanical responses of the individual constituents and constituent interactions in the composites of interest. Current efforts to model such composite materials rely on semi-empirical models in which meso-scale properties are inferred from continuum level testing and modeling. The proposed approach involves removing the difficulties of interrogating and characterizing micro-scale behaviors by scaling-up the problem to work with macro-scale composites, with the intention of developing testing and modeling capabilities that will be applicable to the mesoscale. This approach assumes that the physical mechanisms governing the responses of the composites on the meso-scale are reproducible on the macro-scale. Working on the macro-scale simplifies the quantification of composite constituents and constituent interactions so that efforts can be focused on developing material models and the testing techniques needed for calibration and validation. Other benefits to working with macro-scale composites include the ability to engineer and manufacture—potentially using additive manufacturing techniques—composites that will support the application of advanced measurement techniques such as digital volume correlation and three-dimensional computed tomography imaging, which would aid in observing and quantifying complex behaviors that are exhibited in the macro-scale composites of interest. Ultimately, the goal of this new approach is to develop a meso-scale composite modeling framework, applicable to many composite materials, and the corresponding macroscale testing and test data interrogation techniques to support model calibration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model: Stories of Use and Impact

The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biopower, and geothermal energy projects around the world. This short publication outlines how the tool has been used by organizations around the world.

economic development↗
DOE OSTI2014

The Coal-Seq III Consortium. Advancing the Science of CO 2 Sequestration in Coal Seam and Gas Shale Reservoirs

The Coal-Seq consortium is a government-industry collaborative that was initially launched in 2000 as a U.S. Department of Energy sponsored investigation into CO2 sequestration in deep, unmineable coal seams. The consortium’s objective aimed to advancing industry’s understanding of complex coalbed methane and gas shale reservoir behavior in the presence of multi-component gases via laboratory experiments, theoretical model development and field validation studies. Research from this collaborative effort was utilized to produce modules to enhance reservoir simulation and modeling capabilities to assess the technical and economic potential for CO2 storage and enhanced coalbed methane recovery in coal basins. Coal-Seq Phase 3 expands upon the learnings garnered from Phase 1 & 2, which has led to further investigation into refined model development related to multicomponent equations-of-state, sorption and diffusion behavior, geomechanical and permeability studies, technical and economic feasibility studies for major international coal basins the extension of the work to gas shale reservoirs, and continued global technology exchange. The first research objective assesses changes in coal and shale properties with exposure to CO2 under field replicated conditions. Results indicate that no significant weakening occurs when coal and shale were exposed to CO2, therefore, there was no need to account for mechanical weakening of coal due to the injection of CO2 for modeling. The second major research objective evaluates cleat, Cp, and matrix, Cm, swelling/shrinkage compressibility under field replicated conditions. The experimental studies found that both Cp and Cm vary due to changes in reservoir pressure during injection and depletion under field replicated conditions. Using laboratory data from this study, a compressibility model was developed to predict the pore-volume compressibility, Cp, and the matrix compressibility, Cm, of coal and shale, which was applied to modeling software to enhance model robustness. Research was also conducted to improve algorithms and generalized adsorption models to facilitate realistic simulation of CO2 sequestration in coal seams and shale gas reservoirs. The interaction among water and the adsorbed gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrogen (N2) in coalbeds is examined using experimental in situ laboratory techniques to comprehensively model CBM production and CO2 sequestration in coals. An equation of state (EOS) module was developed which is capable of predicting the density of pure components and mixtures involving the wet CBM gases CH4, CO2, and N2 at typical reservoir condition, and is used to inform CO2 injection models. The final research objective examined the effects adsorbed CO2 has on coal strength and permeability. This research studied the weakening or failure of coal by the adsorption of CO2 from empirically derived gas production data to develop models for advanced modeling of permeability changes during CO2 sequestration. The results of this research effort have been used to construct a new and improved model for assessing changes in permeability of coal reservoirs due CO2 injection. The modules developed from these studies and knowledge learned are applied to field validation and basin assessment studies. These data were used to assess the flow and storage of CO2 in a shale reservoir, test newly developed code against large-scale projects, and conduct a basin-oriented review of coal storage potential in the San Juan Basin. The storage potential and flow of CO2 was modeled for shale sequestration of a proprietary Marcellus Shale horizontal gas production well using COMET3 simulation software. Simulation results from five model runs indicate that stored CO2 quantities are linked to the duration of primary production preceding injection. Matrix CO2 saturation is observed to increase in each shale zone after injection with an increase in primary production, and the size of the CO2 plume is also observed to increase in size the longer initial production is sustained. The simulation modules developed around the Coal-Seq experimental work are also incorporated into a pre-existing large-scale numerical simulation model of the Pump Canyon CO2-ECBM pilot in the San Juan Basin. The new model was applied to re-history match the data set to explore the improvements made in permeability prediction against previously published data sets and to validate this module. The assessment of the new data, however, indicates that the impact of the variable Cp is negligible on the overall behavior of the coal for CO2 storage purposes. Applying these new modules, the San Juan Basin and the Marcellus Shale are assessed for their technical ECBM/AGR and CO2 storage potential and the economic potential of these operations. The San Juan Basin was divided into 4 unique geographic zones based on production history, and the Marcellus was divided into nine. Each was assessed based upon each zone’s properties, and simulations were run to assess the potential of full Basin development. Models of a fully developed San Juan Basin suggest the potential for up to 104 Tcf of CO2 storage, and 12.3 Tcf of methane recovery. The Marcellus models suggest 1,248 Tcf of CO2 storage and 924 Tcf of AGR. The economics are deemed favorable where credits cover the cost of CO2 in the San Juan Basin, and in many cases in the Marcellus, but to maximize storage potential, credits need to extend to pay the operator to store CO2.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and Demonstration of a Reduced-Order PWR Power Dispatch Simulator

This report describes the development, modeling, and results of a reduced-order thermal power dispatch pressurized water reactor (RO-TPD-PWR) power plant simulator that incorporates coupled electrical and thermal power dispatch to an industrial process. The simulator is built on models that have been developed in previous work, including a Rancor Microworld model previously developed by INL and the University of Idaho [Ref] and reactor core and secondary system models that have been published previously [Ref]. The simulator also includes a scalable model of a high temperature electrolysis (HTE) system that has been developed at INL. A particular benefit of the Rancor Microworld model is that it is compatible with a human-system interface (HMI) that has already been developed by the Human System Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) at INL that can emulate the control room of a PWR for realistic human-in-the-loop studies with mock nuclear power plant operating procedures. The results of these human-in-the-loop tests will be compared with similar tests using a commercial full-scope generic PWR (GPWR) simulator that has been modified to include thermal power dispatch, referred to as the TPD-GPWR [ , ]. The simplicity of the RO-TPD-PWR helps to better understand and verify the results of the TPD-GPWR, which employs >1,000 variables and has much greater complexity. A second key purpose of the RO-TPD-PWR simulator is that its relative simplicity allows it scale between lab-size equipment (~100 kW) and full-scale nuclear power plants (~1 GW) by adjusting only a few parameters in the models, such as fluid masses and heat exchanger areas. The RO-TPD-PWR simulator will be used to guide the controls of lab tests, so that equipment in those tests, such as the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) and pilot-scale high temperature electrolysis (HTE) units at scales of 50-250 kW, may operate in a manner that is relevant to full-scale PWR operations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Next Generation Co-Molded One-Piece Automotive Parts

The purpose of this project was to determine the feasibility of co-molding Class A Sheet Molding Compound (SMC), structural SMC, and continuous fiber prepreg materials to produce a single piece co-molded automotive part, such as a hood. The combination of the three molding materials and the incorporation of selective design features (ribs, flanges, corrugations) was expected to eliminate the need for inner reinforcement panels, significantly reducing tooling costs and simplifying the manufacturing process. A multi-material solution would also result in significant weight savings. The scope of this project included the material characterization of the three materials, development of cure and flow simulation models, and validation of the models against parts molded with different combinations of the materials on an 11”x11” plaque tool with rib features. The intent of this project was to apply the learnings obtained from co-molding a part with simplified geometry to a Phase 2 project that would produce a single piece hood, co-molded with the same materials. Resins from INEOS Composites were provided to IDI to produce SMC and continuous fiber prepregs. Purdue University and INEOS Composites characterized the rheological and curing behavior of the different materials as well as the mechanical properties of the co-molded parts. This data was used by Purdue University to create simulation models. Models were created to predict both flow patterns and predict mechanical properties of different laminate constructions in and around the ribs. Michigan State University - Corktown validated Purdue’s models by co-molding the three materials in different combinations on a tool containing rib features provided by Century Tool. The co-molded parts were evaluated against the simulation models by Purdue, Corktown and INEOS. The project team demonstrated the following: • The ability to obtain a cohesive co-molded structure made up of Class A SMC, Structural SMC, and continuous fiber prepreg. • The ability to obtain a co-molded part with a Class A surface • Modeling of flow and fiber orientation • Modeling to predict mechanical properties of multi-material co-molded structures The predicted flow behavior and fiber orientation from simulations were then compared with the molded samples. Exact local orientation state was difficult to compare between microscopy and flow simulation, but captured general trends. Multi-material flow behavior was generally modeled well with SMC materials, but the introduction of woven material sheets requires further model development. Purdue compared the predicted versus actual mechanical properties, and INEOS Composites evaluated the surface appearance of unpainted and painted co-molded parts. The models developed by Purdue demonstrated that the mechanical properties can be predicted for parts with varying material configurations. The resulting models can be applied to future co-molded part design, tooling design, and molding conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of artificial neural network performance for classification of potato plants infected with potato virus Y using spectral data on multiple varieties and genotypes

Potato virus Y (Potyviridae, PVY) is a plant virus that poses a significant threat to potato producers on a global basis. The pathogen has disrupted seed potato supplies and negatively impacted yield and quality of commercial potato crops. The potato industry currently manages PVY infection levels via insecticide applications, regional seed certification programs that rely on field scouting to visually assess individual plants for infection status, and destructive and costly tissue sampling coupled with laboratory assays. Despite these efforts, PVY continues to confound potato industry stakeholders resulting in economic harm. Remote sensing and machine learning provide for the development of new tools to more accurately detect and spatially quantify PVY-infected plants versus the current state of the art. However, there is a need to understand how the occurrence of many different potato varieties impact the dynamics of developing models to detect potato plants impacted with PVY and their potential effectiveness. This study evaluates classification modelling outcomes using spectral datasets collected in different temporal and spatial environments (greenhouse and a production field) on multiple potato varieties consisting of labelled instances of plants infected with PVY and those not infected with the virus. A modelling framework was developed to support iterative modelling runs using artificial neural network (ANN) architectures configured as binary classifiers to develop sample populations to support statistical analysis on model performance using specific spectral subsets. When using spectral data to detect PVY-infected plants, ANN models achieved the highest mean accuracy of 0.894 on a single variety. Conversely, the same ANN model architecture only achieved a mean accuracy of 0.575 on a spectral data set representing 29 potato breeding lines. Additionally, statistical analysis indicates spectral regions including the red edge, near infrared and shortwave infrared contain more important spectral features for the ANN classifier introduced in this research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Cemented Annulus Modeling and Testing; FY16 Progress

Sandia National Laboratories has begun developing modeling and analysis tools of flow through the cemented portion of a cemented annulus in a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) well since August of 2015. The goal of this work is to develop models and testing procedures to diagnose the health of cemented annuli at SPR sites. In Fiscal Year 2016 (FY16), we have developed several tests and associated models that we believe are sufficient for this purpose. This report outlines progress made in FY16 and future work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

US Department of Energy National Lab Activities in Marine Hydrokinetics: Machine Performance Testing

Marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) technology performance testing in the laboratory and field supports the US Department of Energy s MHK program goals to advance the technology readiness levels of MHK machines, to ensure environmentally responsible designs, to identify key cost drivers, and to reduce the cost of energy of MHK technologies. Laboratory testing results from scaled model machine testing at the University of Minnesota s St. Anthony Falls Laboratory (SAFL) main channel flume are presented, including simultaneous machine power and inflow measurements for a 1:10 scale three-bladed axial flow turbine used to assess machine performance in turbulent flows, and detailed measurements of inflow and wake flow velocity and turbulence, including the assessment of the effects of large energetic organized vortex shedding on machine performance and wake turbulence downstream. Scaled laboratory testing provides accurate data sets for near- and far-field hydrodynamic models, and useful information on technology and environmental readiness levels before full-scale testing and demonstration in open water. This study validated turbine performance for a technology in order to advance its technology readiness level. Synchronized ADV measurements to calculate spatio-temporal characteristics of turbulence supported model development of the inflow turbulence model, Hydro-TurbSim, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate unsteady loading on MHK machines. Wake flow measurements supported model development of the far-field model, SNL-EFDC, developed by Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) to optimize spacing for MHK machine arrays.

acoustic Doppler profiler↗
DOE OSTI2017

Model representations of kerogen structures: An insight from density functional theory calculations and spectroscopic measurements

Molecular structures of kerogen control hydrocarbon production in unconventional reservoirs. Significant progress has been made in developing model representations of various kerogen structures. These models have been widely used for the prediction of gas adsorption and migration in shale matrix. However, using density functional perturbation theory (DFPT) calculations and vibrational spectroscopic measurements, we here show that a large gap may still remain between the existing model representations and actual kerogen structures, therefore calling for new model development. Using DFPT, we calculated Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra for six most widely used kerogen structure models. The computed spectra were then systematically compared to the FTIR absorption spectra collected for kerogen samples isolated from Mancos, Woodford and Marcellus formations representing a wide range of kerogen origin and maturation conditions. Limited agreement between the model predictions and the measurements highlights that the existing kerogen models may still miss some key features in structural representation. A combination of DFPT calculations with spectroscopic measurements may provide a useful diagnostic tool for assessing the adequacy of a proposed structural model as well as for future model development. This approach may eventually help develop comprehensive infrared (IR)-fingerprints for tracing kerogen evolution.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Aerosol indirect effect on the grid-scale clouds in the two-way coupled WRF–CMAQ: model description, development, evaluation and regional analysis

This study implemented first, second and glaciation aerosol indirect effects (AIE) on resolved clouds in the two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF–CMAQ) modeling system by including parameterizations for both cloud drop and ice number concentrations on the basis of CMAQ-predicted aerosol distributions and WRF meteorological conditions. The performance of the newly developed WRF–CMAQ model, with alternate Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) and Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) radiation schemes, was evaluated with observations from the Clouds and the See http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/ . Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite and surface monitoring networks (AQS, IMPROVE, CASTNET, STN, and PRISM) over the continental US (CONUS) (12 km resolution) and eastern Texas (4 km resolution) during August and September of 2006. The results at the Air Quality System (AQS) surface sites show that in August, the normalized mean bias (NMB) values for PM 2.5 over the eastern US (EUS) and the western US (WUS) are 5.3% (-0.1%) and 0.4% (-5.2%) for WRF–CMAQ/CAM (WRF–CMAQ/RRTMG), respectively. The evaluation of PM 2.5 chemical composition reveals that in August, WRF–CMAQ/CAM (WRF–CMAQ/RRTMG) consistently underestimated the observed SO 4 2- by -23.0% (-27.7%), -12.5% (-18.9%) and -7.9% (-14.8%) over the EUS at the Clean Air Status Trends Network (CASTNET), Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Speciated Trends Network (STN) sites, respectively. Both configurations (WRF–CMAQ/CAM, WRF–CMAQ/RRTMG) overestimated the observed mean organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC) and and total carbon (TC) concentrations over the EUS in August at the IMPROVE sites. Both configurations generally underestimated the cloud field (shortwave cloud forcing, SWCF) over the CONUS in August due to the fact that the AIE on the subgrid convective clouds was not considered when the model simulations were run at the 12 km resolution. This is in agreement with the fact that both configurations captured SWCF and longwave cloud forcing (LWCF) very well for the 4 km simulation over eastern Texas, when all clouds were resolved by the finer resolution domain. The simulations of WRF–CMAQ/CAM and WRF–CMAQ/RRTMG show dramatic improvements for SWCF, LWCF, cloud optical depth (COD), cloud fractions and precipitation over the ocean relative to those of WRF default cases in August. The model performance in September is similar to that in August, except for a greater overestimation of PM 2.5 due to the overestimations of SO 4 2- , NH 4 + , NO 3 - , and TC over the EUS, less underestimation of clouds (SWCF) over the land areas due to the lower SWCF values, and fewer convective clouds in September. Finally, this work shows that inclusion of indirect aerosol effect treatments in WRF–CMAQ represents a significant advancement and milestone in air quality modeling and the development of integrated emissions control strategies for air quality management and climate change mitigation.

indirect aerosol forcing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Convergence in simulating global soil organic carbon by structurally different models after data assimilation

Abstract Current biogeochemical models produce carbon–climate feedback projections with large uncertainties, often attributed to their structural differences when simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics worldwide. However, choices of model parameter values that quantify the strength and represent properties of different soil carbon cycle processes could also contribute to model simulation uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of using common observational data in reducing model uncertainty in estimates of global SOC storage. Two structurally different models featuring distinctive carbon pools, decomposition kinetics, and carbon transfer pathways simulate opposite global SOC distributions with their customary parameter values yet converge to similar results after being informed by the same global SOC database using a data assimilation approach. The converged spatial SOC simulations result from similar simulations in key model components such as carbon transfer efficiency, baseline decomposition rate, and environmental effects on carbon fluxes by these two models after data assimilation. Moreover, data assimilation results suggest equally effective simulations of SOC using models following either first‐order or Michaelis–Menten kinetics at the global scale. Nevertheless, a wider range of data with high‐quality control and assurance are needed to further constrain SOC dynamics simulations and reduce unconstrained parameters. New sets of data, such as microbial genomics‐function relationships, may also suggest novel structures to account for in future model development. Overall, our results highlight the importance of observational data in informing model development and constraining model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗