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At least 487 records · Page 27

Optimized retrievals of precipitable water from the VAS 'split window'

Precipitable water fields have been retrieved from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) using a radiation transfer model for the differential water vapor absorption between the 11- and 12-micron 'split window' channels. Previous moisture retrievals using only the split window channels provided very good space-time continuity but poor absolute accuracy. This note describes how retrieval errors can be significantly reduced from plus or minus 0.9 to plus or minus 0.6 gm/sq cm by empirically optimizing the effective air temperature and absorption coefficients used in the two-channel model. The differential absorption between the VAS 11- and 12-micron channels, empirically estimated from 135 colocated VAS-RAOB observations, is found to be approximately 50 percent smaller than the theoretical estimates. Similar discrepancies have been noted previously between theoretical and empirical absorption coefficients applied to the retrieval of sea surface temperatures using radiances observed by VAS and polar-orbiting satellites. These discrepancies indicate that radiation transfer models for the 11-micron window appear to be less accurate than the satellite observations.

Chesters, Dennis↗

Constraining Stellar Parameters and Atmospheric Dynamics of the Carbon AGB star V Oph

Molecules and dust produced by the atmospheres of cool evolved stars contribute to a significant amount of the total material found in the interstellar medium. To understand the mechanism behind the mass loss of these stars, it is of pivotal importance to investigate the structure and dynamics of their atmospheres. Our goal is to verify if the extended molecular and dust layers of the carbon-rich asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star V Oph, and their time variations, can be explained by dust-driven winds triggered by stellar pulsation alone, or if other mechanisms are in play. We model V Oph mid-infrared interferometric VLTI-MIDI data (8–13 μm), at phases 0.18, 0.49, and 0.65, together with literature photometric data, using the latest-generation self-consistent dynamic atmosphere models for carbon-rich stars: DARWIN. We determine the fundamental stellar parameters: T(eff) = 2600 K, L(bol) = 3585 L⊙, M = 1.5 M⊙, C/O = 1.35, Mass flow rate= 2.50 x 10(exp -6) M⊙/yr. We calculate the stellar photospheric radii at the three phases: 479, 494, 448 R⊙; and the dust radii: 780, 853, 787 R⊙. The dynamic models can fairly explain the observed N-band visibility and spectra, although there is some discrepancy between the data and the models, which is discussed in the text. We discuss the possible causes of the temporal variations of the outer atmosphere, deriving an estimate of the magnetic field strength, and computing upper limits for the Alfvén waves velocity. In addition, using period–luminosity sequences, and interferometric modeling, we suggest V Oph as a candidate to be reclassified as a semi-regular star.

Gioia Rau↗

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Benchmarking Simulated Precipitation Variability Amplitude across Time Scales

Here, objective performance metrics that measure precipitation variability across time scales from subdaily to interannual are presented and applied to Historical simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. Three satellite-based precipitation estimates (IMERG, TRMM, and CMORPH) are used as reference data. We apply two independent methods to estimate temporal variability of precipitation and compare the consistency in their results. The first method is derived from power spectra analysis of 3-hourly precipitation, measuring forced variability by solar insolation (diurnal and annual cycles) and internal variability at different time scales (subdaily, synoptic, subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual). The second method is based on time averaging and facilitates estimating the seasonality of subdaily variability. Supporting the robustness of our metric, we find a near equivalence between the results obtained from the two methods when examining simulated-to-observed ratios over large domains (global, tropics, extratropics, land, or ocean). Additionally, we demonstrate that our model evaluation is not very sensitive to the discrepancies between observations. Our results reveal that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in general overestimate the forced variability while they underestimate the internal variability, especially in the tropical ocean and higher-frequency variability. The underestimation of subdaily variability is consistent across different seasons. The internal variability is overall improved in CMIP6, but remains underestimated, and there is little evidence of improvement in forced variability. Increased horizontal resolution results in some improvement of internal variability at subdaily and synoptic time scales, but not at longer time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of the anomalous spin precession frequency $\omega_a$ in the Muon $g-2$ experiment at Fermilab

The muon anomaly, $a_\mu=(g_{\mu}-2)/2$, is a low-energy observable which can be both measured and computed to high precision, making it a sensitive test of the Standard Model (SM) and a probe for new physics. The current discrepancy between the experimental value and the Standard Model calculation from the Muon $g-2$ Theory Initiative is $a_{\mu}^{exp}-a_{\mu}^{SM}=(251\pm59)\cdot10^{-11}$, with a significance of $4.2\,\sigma$.The Fermilab E989 experiment aims, with the full statistical power, to improve by a factor of four the precision of the measurement.In April 2021 the collaboration published the first measurement, based on the first year of data taking.This paper will present the status of the measurement of the anomalous muon spin precession frequency, $\omega_a$, performed on the datasets collected during Run-2 and Run-3 (2019 and 2020 campaigns), with a preliminary projection of the systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evidence against chromospheric evaporation from the 21 May 1980 flare

Antonucci et al. (1985) have presented observations of the large two-ribbon flare of May 21, 1980 and interpreted the Ca XIX X-ray line profiles, hard X-ray observations, and X-ray images to support the standard model of electron-beam-driven chromospheric evaporation. Here it is shown that an active filament which erupted at flare onset can also explain the observations, and that a closer look at the evidence of Antonucci et al. leads to discrepancies with the chromospheric evaporation model.

Batchelor, David A.↗

Origin of tropospheric NO(x) over subarctic eastern Canada in summer

The original of NO(X) in the summertime troposphere over subarctic eastern Canada is investigated by photochemical modeling of aircraft and ground-based measurements from the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3B). It is found that decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) can account for most of the NO(X) observed between the surface and 6.2 km altitude (aircraft ceiling). Forest fires represent the principal source of PAN in the region, implying the same origin for NO(X). There is, however, evidence for an unidentified source of NO(X) in occasional air masses subsiding from the upper troposphere. Isoprene emissions from boreal forests maintain high NO(X) concentrations in the continental boundary layer over eastern Canada by scavenging OH and NO3, thus slowing down conversion of NO(X) to HNO3, both in the daytime and at night. This effect is partly compensated by the production of CH3CO3 radicals during isoprene oxidation, which slows down the decomposition of PAN subsiding from the free troposphere. The peroxy radical concentrations estimated from concurrent measurements of NO and NO2 concentrations during ABLE 3B are consistent with values computed from our photochemical model below 4 km, but model values are low at higher altitudes. The discrepancy may reflect either a missing radical source in the model or interferences in the NO2 measurement.

Fan, S.-M↗

AVHRR Surface Temperature and Narrow-Band Albedo Comparison with Ground Measurements for the Greenland Ice Sheet

An ice-surface temperature retrieval algorithm for the Greenland ice sheet was developed using NOAA 11 thermal radiances from channels 4 and 5. Temperature, pressure and humidity profiles, cloud observations and skin temperatures from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) camp, located at the equilibrium line altitude at 49 deg17 min W, 69 deg 34 min N, were used in the LOWTRAN 7 model. Through a statistical analysis of daily clear sky profiles, the coefficients that correct for the atmospheric effects were determined for the ETH-Camp field season (May to August). Surface temperatures retrieved by this method were then compared against the in situ observations with a maximum difference of 0.6 K. The NOAA 11 narrow-band planetary albedo values for channels 1 and 2 were calculated using pre-launch calibration coefficients. Scattering and absorption by the atmosphere were modelled with LOWTRAN 7. Then, narrow-band albedo values for the AVHRR visible and near infrared channels were compared with in situ high resolution spectral reflectance measurements. In the visible band (580-680 nm), AVHRR-derived narrow-band albedo and the in situ measurements corrected with radiative transfer model LOWTRAN 7 showed a difference of less than 2%. For the near infrared channel (725-1100 nm) the difference between the measured and modelled narrow-band albedo was 14%. These discrepancies could be either the result of inaccurate aerosol scattering modelling (lack of the in situ observation), or the result of sensor drift due to degradation.

Haefliger, M.↗

Promoting CO 2 Release from CO 3 2- -Containing Solvents during Water Electrolysis for Direct Air Capture

The pH swings from water electrolysis are leveraged to condition OH – -based facile CO 2 capture solvents using an electrochemical flow cell for direct air capture (DAC). Besides demonstrating the DAC using a membrane contactor, promoting CO 2 release from a CO 3 2– solution at the anode is specifically studied by adjusting the volumetric flow rate, anode chamber volume, residence time, and K 2 CO 3 concentration. Through case-by-case comparisons coupled with modeled results, increasing current, reducing volumetric flow rate, and/or reducing CO 3 2– concentration are the effective methods to promote CO 2 release from a CO 3 2– -containing solvent, whereas enlarging the anode chamber volume poses a minor effect. Moreover, the discrepancies between the experimental and modeled results may be caused by H + crossover rather than K + transport through the Nafion membrane during water electrolysis based upon the total alkalinity measurements for the K 2 CO 3 solutions gleaned from the anode. Here, it is believed that such results will provide guidance to design and operate an electrochemical flow cell for electrochemistry-assisted DAC and point source CO 2 capture.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Assessment and validation of NEAMS tools for high-fidelity multiphysics transient modeling of microreactors: Application of NEAMS codes to perform multiphysics modeling analyses of micro-reactor concepts

The NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team aims at providing assessment of code useability and functionality for microreactor design and analyses, together with demonstration of their capabilities to properly capture the steady-state and time-dependent behavior of different microreactor concepts. In FY-24, significant progress was achieved in improving multi-physics models of several microreactors systems: HP-MR, GC-MR and KRUSTY. These efforts focused on solving more complex multiphysics problems enabled by enhanced tools capability, verifying and validating results obtained, providing feedback to developers for suggested improvements, and sharing these models to facilitate user training. A series of new multiphysics transients were completed on the HP-MR (using Griffin/BISON/Sockeye) with core startup transient, control drum inadvertent rotation accident, and hydrogen leakage from hydride moderator (also including SWIFT). On the GC-MR, a new full-core model was developed and analyzed through a series of new multiphysics (Griffin/BISON/SAM) transients to simulate moderator leakage (also including SWIFT), flow blockage and coolant depressurization. Additional and updated TRISO failure analyses were completed on the HP-MR unit-cell and GC-MR assembly models leveraging improved TRISO modeling capabilities. The amount of SiC failure following accidental transients at end-of-life was null. However, GC-MR assembly TRISO analysis highlighted Pd penetration rate can be problematic and may require design changes on the studied microreactor concept. The neutronics discrepancies observed on the KRUSTY model in previous years were resolved using hybrid set of Monte Carlo/Deterministic cross-sections. The multiphysics (Griffin neutronics / BISON thermal-mechanics) 15₵ insertion transient simulation displayed good agreement when comparing with experimental data. Initial modeling of the 30 ₵ reactivity insertion also displays promising results. Such close agreement provides important validation data that can be leveraged by the NEAMS program and by microreactor vendors to support licensing of their technology. Finally, important experience was gathered with the NEAMS tools leading to several user feedback shared with tools developers, especially with regards to MOOSE mesh generator and Griffin. This project led to many publications demonstrating modeling capabilities, and to three models shared on the Virtual Test Bed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Inadequacy of the statistical many-body model for molecular infrared absorption in the far wings

It is known that the infrared absorption coefficient of CO2 in the far wings is far less than what is derived from the assumption of a Lorentzian absorption profile. Sorgen and Ben-Aryeh (1972) tried to show that by incorporating the statistical many-body model into impact theory, the discrepancy between the Lorentzian absorption profile and the experimental infrared absorption coefficient can be removed. This paper attempts to show that the high frequency or short-time property of the dipole-dipole interaction cannot be adequately explained by the many-body model; in other words, the statistical model as conventionally understood is not applicable to infrared spectral lines in the far wings.

Fowler, B. W.↗

A comparison between ShapeFit compression and Full-Modelling method with PyBird for DESI 2024 and beyond

DESI aims to provide one of the tightest constraints on cosmological parameters by analysing the clustering of more than thirty million galaxies. However, obtaining such constraints requires special care in validating the methodology and efforts to reduce the computational time required through data compression and emulation techniques. In this work, we perform a rigorous validation of the PyBird power spectrum modelling code with both a traditional emulated Full-Modelling approach and the model-independent ShapeFit compression approach. By using cubic box simulations that accurately reproduce the clustering and precision of the DESI survey, we find that the cosmological constraints from ShapeFit and Full-Modelling are consistent with each other at the ∼ 0.5σ level for the ΛCDM model. Both ShapeFit and Full-Modelling are also consistent with the true ΛCDM simulation cosmology down to a scale of k max = 0.20 hMpc -1 even after including the hexadecapole. For extended models such as the wCDM and the oCDM models, we find that including the hexadecapole can significantly improve the constraints and reduce the modelling errors with the same k max . While their discrepancies between the constraints from ShapeFit and Full-Modelling are more significant than ΛCDM, they remain consistent within 0.7σ. Lastly, we also show that the constraints on cosmological parameters with the correlation function evaluated from PyBird down to s min = 30h -1 Mpc are unbiased and consistent with the constraints from the power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Frequency based localization of structural discrepancies

The intent of modal analysis is to develop a reliable model of a structure by working with the analytical and experimental modal properties of frequency, damping and mode shape. In addition to identifying these modal properties, it would be desirable to determine spatially which parts of the structure are modelled poorly or well. It is shown how the pattern of discrepancies in the analytical and experimental test values for the pole and the driving point zero frequencies of a structure can be linked to discrepancies in the mass or stiffness of the structural elements. The success of the procedure depends on the numerical conditioning of a modal reference matrix. Strategies to insure adequate numerical conditioning require a formulation which avoids geometric and energy storage symmetries of the structure, and ignores structural elements which contribute negligibly small potential or kinetic energy to the excited modes. Physical insight into the numerical conditioning problem is provided by a numerical example and by localization of a mass discrepancy in a real structure based on lab tests.

Shepard, G. D.↗

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Grain Destruction in a Supernova Remnant Shock Wave

Dust grains are sputtered away in the hot gas behind shock fronts in supernova remnants, gradually enriching the gas phase with refractory elements. We have measured emission in C IV (lambda)1550 from C atoms sputtered from dust in the gas behind a non-radiative shock wave in the northern Cygnus Loop. Overall, the intensity observed behind the shock agrees approximately with predictions from model calculations that match the Spitzer 24 micron and the X-ray intensity profiles. Thus these observations confirm the overall picture of dust destruction in SNR shocks and the sputtering rates used in models. However, there is a discrepancy in that the CIV intensity 10'' behind the shock is too high compared to the intensities at the shock and 25'' behind it. Variations in the density, hydrogen neutral fraction and the dust properties over parsec scales in the pre- shock medium limit our ability to test dust destruction models in detail.

dust↗

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A critical analysis of CLO and O3 in the mid-latitude stratosphere

The Caltech one-dimensional photochemical model is used to analyze important questions concerning the upper stratospheric O3 and the key HO(x), NO(x), and ClO(x) free radicals. The model is described and first order effects of the inclusion of diffuse radiation in a spherical rather than plane parallel atmosphere at solar zenith angles close to 90 deg are assessed. A comparison is made between photochemical theory and observations for upper stratospheric O3, where local photochemistry rather than dynamics should control the O3 abundance. The photochemical equilibrium relation for odd oxygen is studied, including the important radicals involves. It is concluded that a significant model ozone deficit exists in the upper stratosphere. Possible causes for such a discrepancy are investigated in light of current model and experimental uncertainties. In particular, the observational ratio of atomic oxygen to zone appears to disagree with the model results.

Froidevaux, L.↗

Consequences of Different Air-Sea Feedbacks on Ocean Using MITgcm and MERRA-2 Forcing: Implications for Coupled Data Assimilation Systems

Ocean surface flux estimates from atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses contain errors that compensate for inaccuracies in the respective atmosphere and ocean models used to generate these reanalyses. A conundrum for climate studies is the discrepancy between surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an atmosphere-only model vs surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an ocean model. As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere data-assimilation (DA) system, we compare surface net heat flux from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to net heat flux from a state-of-the-art ocean state estimate, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4 (ECCO-v4). The possible impacts of the MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 air-sea net heat flux difference in a coupled DA system were assessed using a set of experiments designed to imitate different “flavors” of a coupled DA system in an ocean-only setup. This was done by forcing the ECCO-v4 underlying ocean model - the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) - with different sets of MERRA-2 fields and utilizing different forcing methods. By doing so we were able to turn off different air-sea feedbacks which, in a coupled DA setup, are partially muted by the constraining observations. The set of experiments, therefore, represents a range of active feedbacks in different “flavors” of coupled data-assimilation systems. For the period 1992–2011, MERRA-2 net heat flux has a global mean difference of -4.9 Wm(exp -2) relative to ECCO-v4. When MERRA-2 surface fields are used to force MITgcm, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2, which are directly related to the fact that MERRA-2 was created without an interactive ocean, propagate to the ocean. The experiment in which MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 fluxes (MERRA-2-flux experiment) results in a 2.5°C global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling, a 1m reduction in global mean sea level, and other drastic changes in the large scale ocean circulation relative to those resulting when the MITgcm is forced with the optimized ECCO-v4 net heat flux (the ECCO-v4 experiment itself). When MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 state variables (MERRA-2-state experiment), the SST is somewhat restored to the observed SST, but the errors are shifted to the water cycle, resulting in a global mean sea level increase of 2.7 m. To further explore the pros and cons of these two approaches, we introduce a new intermediate forcing method in which the ocean is forced with turbulent fluxes but has a long wave feedback. This method, unlike MERRA-2 state, preserves the MERRA-2 water and salinity cycles, and it reduces the SST error compared to the MERRA-2-flux experiment, but the SST is not as good as that in the MERRA-2-state experiment. Our results have implications for ocean-model forcing recipes and clearly reveal the undesirable consequences of limiting the feedbacks in either these types of experiments or in coupled DA.

Ehud Strobach↗