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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27

Evaluation of pre-training large language models on leadership-class supercomputers

Large language models (LLMs) have arisen rapidly to the center stage of artificial intelligence as the foundation models applicable to many downstream learning tasks. However, how to effectively build, train, and serve such models for many high-stake and first-principle-based scientific use cases are both of great interests and of great challenges. Moreover, pre-training LLMs with billions or even trillions of parameters can be prohibitively expensive not just for academic institutions, but also for well-funded industrial and government labs. Furthermore, the energy cost and the environmental impact of developing LLMs must be kept in mind. Here, in this work, we conduct a first-of-its-kind performance analysis to understand the time and energy cost of pre-training LLMs on the Department of Energy (DOE)’s leadership-class supercomputers. Employing state-of-the-art distributed training techniques, we evaluate the computational performance of various parallelization approaches at scale for a range of model sizes, and establish a projection model for the cost of full training. Our findings provide baseline results, best practices, and heuristics for pre-training such large models that should be valuable to HPC community at large. We also offer insights and optimization strategies for using the first exascale computing system, Frontier, to train models of the size of GPT-3 and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impacts of chemical gradients on microbial community structure

Succession of redox processes is sometimes assumed to define a basic microbial community structure for ecosystems with oxygen gradients. In this paradigm, aerobic respiration, denitrification, fermentation and sulfate reduction proceed in a thermodynamically determined order, known as the ‘redox tower’. Here, we investigated whether redox sorting of microbial processes explains microbial community structure at low-oxygen concentrations. We subjected a diverse microbial community sampled from a coastal marine sediment to 100 days of tidal cycling in a laboratory chemostat. Oxygen gradients (both in space and time) led to the assembly of a microbial community dominated by populations that each performed aerobic and anaerobic metabolism in parallel. This was shown by metagenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and stable isotope incubations. Effective oxygen consumption combined with the formation of microaggregates sustained the activity of oxygen-sensitive anaerobic enzymes, leading to braiding of unsorted redox processes, within and between populations. Analyses of available metagenomic data sets indicated that the same ecological strategies might also be successful in some natural ecosystems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Visual Analytics for Power Grid Contingency Analysis

Contingency analysis is the process of employing different measures to model scenarios, analyze them, and then derive the best response to remove the threats. This application paper focuses on a class of contingency analysis problems found in the power grid management system. A power grid is a geographically distributed interconnected transmission network that transmits and delivers electricity from generators to end users. The power grid contingency analysis problem is increasingly important because of both the growing size of the underlying raw data that need to be analyzed and the urgency to deliver working solutions in an aggressive timeframe. Failure to do so may bring significant financial, economic, and security impacts to all parties involved and the society at large. The paper presents a scalable visual analytics pipeline that transforms about 100 million contingency scenarios to a manageable size and form for grid operators to examine different scenarios and come up with preventive or mitigation strategies to address the problems in a predictive and timely manner. Great attention is given to the computational scalability, information scalability, visual scalability, and display scalability issues surrounding the data analytics pipeline. Most of the large-scale computation requirements of our work are conducted on a Cray XMT multi-threaded parallel computer. The paper demonstrates a number of examples using western North American power grid models and data.

contingency analysis↗

Hardware-in-the-Loop Investigation of Emissions Challenges in Hybrid Medium- and Heavy-Duty Powertrains Using a Pre-Production Diesel-Electric Parallel Hybrid System With and Without Stop-Start Operation

Hybrid electric powertrains are a growing market in medium- and heavy-duty applications. There is a lack of available information to understand the challenges in the integration of engine platforms into electrified powertrains, such as cold-start, restart, and load-reduction effects on emissions and emission control devices. Results from the Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck (HHDDT) cycle using a conventional medium-duty diesel engine were compared with those of a parallel hybrid architecture. Oak Ridge National Laboratory in collaboration with the US Department of Energy and Odyne Systems, LLC developed a powertrain in a hardware-in-the-loop environment, integrating the Odyne Systems, LLC medium-duty parallel hybrid system, which was used for the hybrid portion of this study. Experiments under the HHDDT cycle showed increasing improvements in fuel consumption and engine-out emissions with the integration of stop/start, hybrid, and hybrid with stop/start. However, the effects of load reduction and exhaust temperature on the thermal management strategy have shown an increase in fueling in the second part of the HHDDT cycle. Four configurations of medium-duty electrification were studied and contributed to building a unique data set containing combustion, emissions, and system integration data. Each electrification level was compared with the conventional baseline. The calibration of the conventional engine was not altered for this study. Opportunities to tailor the combustion process were identified with the stop/start strategy.

Lerin, Chloe↗

2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop

Decarbonization refers to a large-scale shift away from fossil fuel sources for energy production and toward energy sources, energy end-use practices, and land management approaches that do not result in a net increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Decarbonization in the Southeastern United States is distinguished from that of other regions in the country by its potential impact on historically underserved populations and the ways this region’s human–environmental systems are predicted to fare in a climate-altered world. In parallel, ensuring a clean energy transition requires the ability to engage entire communities that are motivated to learn, build, and encourage the spread of so-called clean tech. In contrast to other technology trends from the past century, the foundation of clean tech is a shared sense of purpose—a collective strategy to mitigate the threats of climate change and support a better environment for everyone. As seen in the Office of Science and Technology Policy’s (OSTP’s) Net-Zero Technology Action Plan (2023), decarbonization is best accelerated by simultaneous investments in Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment of technology in tandem with intentional policy and community-based solutions. The 2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop, hosted by the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), aimed to bring together members of our communities and a group of regional experts to strategize about opportunities in this important area, as well as to incorporate the important pillar of System Interactions to bridge the gap between clean tech’s intent and its impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Technical Report for DE-SC0022206

This project developed foundational genetic, genomic, and epigenetic tools for anaerobic fungi (Neocallimastigomycota), a group of microorganisms with exceptional natural abilities to deconstruct lignocellulosic biomass. Efficient biomass deconstruction remains a major barrier to economical production of renewable fuels, chemicals, and materials from agricultural and forestry residues. The project sought to enable mechanistic studies and future engineering of anaerobic fungi by improving genomic resources, establishing methods for gene expression, and investigating epigenetic regulation of biomass-degrading pathways. Major accomplishments included generation of the first chromosome-scale genome assemblies for multiple anaerobic fungal species, providing publicly available genomic resources that support both engineering and fundamental biological research. The project established the first reproducible system for heterologous gene expression in anaerobic fungi and identified genomic features and mobile genetic elements that may support future development of stable transformation technologies. In parallel, the project demonstrated direct conversion of untreated lignocellulosic biomass into fuels and specialty chemicals through a fungal-yeast bioprocess and identified anaerobic fungal enzymes with utility for metabolic engineering. The research also revealed that epigenetic regulation plays an important role in controlling fungal gene expression and enzyme production, identifying potential strategies for enhancing biomass degradation. Collectively, this work established anaerobic fungi as a tractable emerging platform for bioenergy and biomanufacturing research, generated valuable public resources, trained the next generation of researchers, and advanced DOE-BER goals related to predictive biology, sustainable bioprocessing, and the circular bioeconomy.

Solomon, Kevin [University of Delaware] (ORCID:000↗

ADAPT

The purpose of the ADAPT code is to generate Dynamic Event Trees (DET) using a user specified set of simulators. ADAPT can utilize any simulation tool which meets a minimal set of requirements. ADAPT is based on the concept of DET which uses explicit modeling of the deterministic dynamic processes that take place during a nuclear reactor plant system (or other complex system) evolution along with stochastic modeling. When DET are used to model various aspects of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), all accident progression scenarios starting from an initiating event are considered simultaneously. The DET branching occurs at user specified times and/or when an action is required by the system and/or the operator. These outcomes then decide how the dynamic system variables will evolve in time for each DET branch. Since two different outcomes at a DET branching may lead to completely different paths for system evolution, the next branching for these paths may occur not only at separate times, but can be based on different branching criteria. The computational infrastructure allows for flexibility in ADAPT to link with different system simulation codes, parallel processing of the scenarios under consideration, on-line scenario management (initiation as well as termination), analysis of results, and user friendly graphical capabilities. The ADAPT system is designed for a distributed computing environment; the scheduler can track multiple concurrent branches simultaneously. The scheduler is modularized so that the DET branching strategy can be modified (e.g. biasing towards the worst-case scenario/event). Independent database systems store data from the simulation tasks and the DET structure so that the event tree can be constructed and analyzed later. ADAPT is provided with a user-friendly client which can easily sort through and display the results of an experiment, precluding the need for the user to manually inspect individual simulator runs.

Reynolds, John↗

Gas Turbine Heavy Hybrid Powertrain Variants. Opportunities and Potential for Systems Optimization

Widespread use of alternative hybrid powertrains is currently inevitable, and many opportunities for substantial progress remain. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have attracted considerable attention due to their potential to reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector. This capability is mainly attributed to (a) the potential for downsizing the engine, (b) the potential for recovering energy during braking and thus recharging the energy storage unit, and (c) the ability to minimize the operation of the engine outside of its most efficient brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC) regime. Hybridization of the Class 8, heavy-duty (HD) powertrain is inherently challenging due to the expected long-haul driving requirements and limited opportunities for regenerative braking. The objective of this project is to develop control strategies aiming at optimizing the operation of a Class 8 HEV that features a micro-turbine as the heat engine. The micro-turbine application shows promise in fuel efficiency, even when compared to current diesel engines, and can meet regulated exhaust emissions levels with no exhaust after-treatment system. Both parallel and series HEV variants will be examined to understand the merits of each approach of the micro-turbine to MD advanced powertrain applications. These powertrain configurations enable new paradigms in operational efficiency, particularly in the Class 8 truck fleet. The successful development of these HEV variants will require a thorough technical understanding of the complex interactions between various energy sources and energy consumption components, for various operating modes. PACCAR will be integrating the first generation of their series HEV powertrain with a Brayton Energy micro-turbine into a Class 8 HD truck tractor that has both regional haul and local pick-up and delivery (P&D) components to its drive cycle. The vehicle will be deployed into fleet operation for a demonstration period of six (6) months to assess real world operating benefits of the advanced powertrain. A parallel variant of the micro-turbine powertrain will be built and sent to the ORNL Vehicle Systems Integration Laboratory.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Intrinsically low thermal conductivity from a quasi-one-dimensional crystal structure and enhanced electrical conductivity network via Pb doping in SbCrSe 3

The development of new routes for the production of thermoelectric materials with low-cost and high-performance characteristics has been one of the long-term strategies for saving and harvesting thermal energy. We report a new approach for improving thermoelectric properties by employing the intrinsically low thermal conductivity of a quasi-one-dimensional (quasi-1D) crystal structure and optimizing the power factor with aliovalent ion doping. As an example, we demonstrated that SbCrSe 3 , in which two parallel chains of CrSe 6 octahedra are linked by antimony atoms, possesses a quasi-1D property that resulted in an ultra-low thermal conductivity of 0.56 W m -1 K -1 at 900 K. After maximizing the power factor by Pb doping, the peak ZT value of the optimized Pb-doped sample reached 0.46 at 900 K, which is an enhancement of 24 times that of the parent SbCrSe 3 structure. The mechanisms that lead to low thermal conductivity derive from anharmonic phonons with the presence of the lone-pair electrons of Sb atoms and weak bonds between the CrSe 6 double chains. Our results shed new light on the design of new and high-performance thermoelectric materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemoselective, osmium-free, dihydroxylation/oxidative cleavage of heteroaryl isoprenes by a contemporary Malaprade reaction

The methyl ketone is a central synthetic building block for the construction of advanced heteroaryl scaffolds and systems. Reactions, including oxidative cyclization strategies, are often predicated on efficient access to this ubiquitous moiety. In the context of arenes, standard approaches leveraging Markovnikov hydration/oxidation or oxidative cleavage of the C–C π bond often afford satisfactory performance. However, when the substrate contains an electron-deficient heteroaryl core, the traditional Malaprade reaction, and related oxidative-cleavage strategies, frequently result in diminished performance over carbon-based arenes. In this work we present the development and application of an oxidative cleavage reaction of various pyridinyl isoprenes towards accessing the downstream methyl ketone for utilization in advanced cyclizations for the preparation of soft-N-donor complexant scaffolds. Further, this efficient protocol parallels the principles of Green chemistry by exchanging KMnO 4 for the toxic OsO 4 and offers the end-user an efficient, more environmentally friendly option for accessing heteroaryl methyl ketones in one hour of reaction time using potassium permanganate and sodium paraperiodate as a synergistically potent oxidative cleavage system. The wide substrate scope defined access to simple, as well as advanced heteroaryl methyl ketones. Method development, optimization, substrate scope, preliminary mechanistic observations, and a scale up reaction are delineated herein.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deer Vigilance and Movement Behavior Are Affected by Edge Density and Connectivity

ABSTRACT Animal behavior is an important component of individual, population, and community responses to anthropogenic habitat alteration. For example, antipredator behavior (e.g., vigilance) and animal movement behavior may both be important behavioral responses to the increased density of habitat edges and changes in patch connectivity that characterize highly modified habitats. Importantly, edge density and connectivity might interact, and this interaction is likely to mediate animal behavior: linear, edge‐rich landscape features often provide structural connectivity between patches, but the functional connectedness of patches for animal use could depend upon how edge density modifies animal vigilance and movement. Using remote cameras in large‐scale experimental landscapes that manipulate edge density (high‐ vs. low‐density edges) and patch connectivity (isolated or connected patches), we examined the effects of edge density and connectivity on the antipredator behavior and movement behavior of white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). Deer vigilance was 1.38 times greater near high‐density edges compared to low‐density edges, regardless of whether patches were connected or isolated. Deer were also more likely to move parallel to connected high‐density edges than all other edge types, suggesting that connectivity promotes movement along high‐density edges. These results suggest that increases in edge density that accompany human fragmentation of existing habitats may give rise to large‐scale changes in the antipredator behavior of deer. These results also suggest that conservation strategies that simultaneously manipulate edge density and connectivity (i.e., habitat corridors) may have multiple effects on different aspects of deer behavior: linear habitat corridors were areas of high vigilance, but also areas where deer movement behavior implied increased movement along the habitat edge.

Bartel, Savannah L. [University of Wisconsin‐Madis↗

ELSI — An open infrastructure for electronic structure solvers

Routine applications of electronic structure theory to molecules and periodic systems need to compute the electron density from given Hamiltonian and, in case of non-orthogonal basis sets, overlap matrices. System sizes can range from few to thousands or, in some examples, millions of atoms. Different discretization schemes (basis sets) and different system geometries (finite non-periodic vs. infinite periodic boundary conditions) yield matrices with different structures. The ELectronic Structure Infrastructure (ELSI) project provides an open-source software interface to facilitate the implementation and optimal use of high-performance solver libraries covering cubic scaling eigensolvers, linear scaling density-matrix-based algorithms, and other reduced scaling methods in between. In this paper, we present recent improvements and developments inside ELSI, mainly covering (1) new solvers connected to the interface, (2) matrix layout and communication adapted for parallel calculations of periodic and/or spin-polarized systems, (3) routines for density matrix extrapolation in geometry optimization and molecular dynamics calculations, and (4) general utilities such as parallel matrix I/O and JSON output. The ELSI interface has been integrated into four electronic structure code projects (DFTB+, DGDFT, FHI-aims, SIESTA), allowing us to rigorously benchmark the performance of the solvers on an equal footing. Based on results of a systematic set of large-scale benchmarks performed with Kohn–Sham density-functional theory and density-functional tight-binding theory, we identify factors that strongly affect the efficiency of the solvers, and propose a decision layer that assists with the solver selection process. As a result, we describe a reverse communication interface encoding matrix-free iterative solver strategies that are amenable, e.g., for use with planewave basis sets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimizing transmit field inhomogeneity of parallel RF transmit design in 7T MRI using deep learning

Ultrahigh field (UHF) Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) provides a higher signal-to-noise ratio and, thereby, higher spatial resolution. However, UHF MRI introduces challenges such as transmit radiofrequency (RF) field (B+1) inhomogeneities, leading to uneven flip angles and image intensity anomalies. These issues can significantly degrade imaging quality and its medical applications. This study addresses B+1 field homogeneity through a novel deep learning-based strategy. Traditional methods like Magnitude Least Squares (MLS) optimization have been effective but are time-consuming and dependent on the patient’s presence. Recent machine learning approaches, such as RF Shim Prediction by Iteratively Projected Ridge Regression and deep learning frameworks, have shown promise but face limitations like extensive training times and oversimplified architectures. We propose a two-step deep learning strategy. First, we obtain the desired reference RF shimming weights from multi-channel B+1 fields using random-initialized Adaptive Moment Estimation. Then, we employ Residual Networks (ResNets) to train a model that maps B+1 fields to target RF shimming outputs. Our approach does not rely on pre-calculated reference optimizations for the testing process and efficiently learns residual functions. Comparative studies with traditional MLS optimization demonstrate our method’s advantages in terms of speed and accuracy. The proposed strategy achieves a faster and more efficient RF shimming design, significantly improving imaging quality at UHF. This advancement holds potential for broader applications in medical imaging and diagnostics.

Lu, Zhengyi [Vanderbilt University]↗

A Comparison of Classical and Aggregation-Based Algebraic Multigrid Preconditioners for High-Fidelity Simulation of Wind Turbine Incompressible Flows

This paper presents a comparison of parallel strong scaling performance of classical and aggregation algebraic multigrid (AMG) preconditioners in the context of wind turbine simulations. Fluid motion is governed by the incompressible Navier--Stokes equations, discretized in space with control-volume finite elements and in time with an inexact projection scheme using an implicit integrator. A discontinuous-Galerkin sliding-mesh algorithm captures rotor motion. The momentum equations are solved with iterative Krylov methods, preconditioned by symmetric Gauss--Seidel (SGS) in Trilinos and $\ell_1$ SGS in hypre. The mass-continuity equation is solved with GMRES preconditioned by AMG and can account for the majority of simulation time. Reducing this continuity solve time is crucial. Wind turbine simulations present two unique challenges for AMG preconditioned solvers: the computational meshes include strongly anisotropic elements, and mesh motion requires matrix reinitialization and computation of preconditioners at each time step. Detailed timing profiles are presented and analyzed, and best practices are discussed for both classical and aggregation-based AMG. Results are presented for simulations of two different wind turbines with up to 6 billion grid points on two different computer architectures. For moving mesh problems that require linear-system reinitialization, the well-established strategy of amortizing preconditioner setup costs over a large number of time steps to reduce the solve time is no longer valid. Instead, results show that faster time to solution is achieved by reducing preconditioner setup costs at the expense of linear-system solve costs. Standard smoothed aggregation with Chebyshev relaxation was found to perform poorly when compared with classical AMG in terms of solve time and robustness. However, plain aggregation was comparable to classical AMG.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Polynomial Preconditioned Arnoldi with Stability Control

Polynomial preconditioning can improve the convergence of the Arnoldi method for computing eigenvalues. Such preconditioning significantly reduces the cost of orthogonalization; for difficult problems, it can also reduce the number of matrix-vector products. Parallel computations can particularly benefit from the reduction of communication-intensive operations. Additoinally, the GMRES algorithm provides a simple and effective way of generating the preconditioning polynomial. For some problems high degree polynomials are especially effective, but they can lead to stability problems that must be mitigated. A two-level “double polynomial preconditioning” strategy provides an effective way to generate high-degree preconditioners.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ELECTRONIC STRUCTURE METHODS AND PROTOCOLS WITH APPLICATION TO DYNAMICS, KINETICS AND THERMOCHEMISTRY

Hydrocarbon combustion involves the reaction dynamics of a tremendous number of species beginning with many-component fuel mixtures and proceeding via a complex system of intermediates to form primary and secondary products. Combustion conditions corresponding to new advanced engines and/or alternative fuels rely increasingly on autoignition and low-temperature-combustion chemistry. In these regimes various transient radical species such as HO2, ROO·, ·QOOH, HCO, NO2, HOCO, and Criegee intermediates play important roles in determining the detailed as well as more general dynamics. A clear understanding and accurate representation of these processes is needed for effective modeling. Given the difficulties associated with making reliable experimental measurements of these systems, computation can play an important role in developing these energy technologies. Accurate calculations have their own challenges since even within the simplest dynamical approximations such as transition state theory, the rates depend exponentially on critical barrier heights and these may be sensitive to the level of quantum chemistry. Moreover, it is well-known that in many cases it is necessary to go beyond statistical theories and consider the dynamics. Quantum tunneling, resonances, radiative transitions, and non-adiabatic effects governed by spin-orbit or derivative coupling can be determining factors in those dynamics. Building upon progress made during a period of prior support through the DOE Early Career Program, this project combines developments in the areas of potential energy surface (PES) fitting and multistate multireference quantum chemistry to allow spectroscopically and dynamically/kinetically accurate investigations of key molecular systems (such as those mentioned above), many of which are radicals with strong multireference character and have the possibility of multiple electronic states contributing to the observed dynamics. An ongoing area of investigation is to develop general strategies for robustly convergent electronic structure theory for global multichannel reactive surfaces including diabatization of energy and other relevant surfaces such as dipole transition. Combining advances in ab initio methods with automated interpolative PES fitting allows the construction of high-quality PESs (incorporating thousands of high-level data) to be done rapidly through parallel processing on high-performance computing (HPC) clusters. In addition, new methods and approaches to electronic structure theory will be developed and tested through applications. This project will explore limitations in traditional multireference calculations (e.g., MRCI) such as those imposed by internal contraction, lack of high-order correlation treatment and poor scaling. Methods such as DMRG-based extended active-space CASSCF and various Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods will be applied (including VMC/DMC and FCIQMC). Insight into the relative significance of different orbital spaces and the robustness of application of these approaches on leadership class computing architectures will be gained. Synergy with other components of this research program such as automated PES fitting and multireference quantum chemistry will be used to address challenges encountered by the standard approaches to computational thermochemistry (those being single-reference quantum chemistry and perturbative treatments of the anharmonic vibrational energy, which break down for some cases of electronic structure or floppy strongly coupled vibrational modes).

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Machine Committee Framework for Power Grid Disturbances Analysis Using Synchrophasors Data

Events detection is a key challenge in power grid frequency disturbances analysis. Accurate detection of events is crucial for situational awareness of the power system. In this paper, we study the problem of events detection in power grid frequency disturbance analysis using synchrophasors data streams. Current events detection approaches for power grid rely on individual detection algorithm. This study integrates some of the existing detection algorithms using the concept of machine committee to develop improved detection approaches for grid disturbance analysis. Specifically, we propose two algorithms—an Event Detection Machine Committee (EDMC) algorithm and a Change-Point Detection Machine Committee (CPDMC) algorithm. Both algorithms use parallel architecture to fuse detection knowledge of its individual methods to arrive at an overall output. The EDMC algorithm combines five individual event detection methods, while the CPDMC algorithm combines two change-point detection methods. Each method performs the detection task separately. The overall output of each algorithm is then computed using a voting strategy. The proposed algorithms are evaluated using three case studies of actual power grid disturbances. Compared with the individual results of the various detection methods, we found that the EDMC algorithm is a better fit for analyzing synchrophasors data; it improves the detection accuracy; and it is suitable for practical scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the US

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗