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At least 487 records · Page 27

Analysis of the Warmest Arctic Winter, 2015-2016

December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

Barents and Kara Seas↗

In Situ Observation of Ion Migration in a Ferroelectric Ionic Conductor Rb-KTP during Thermal Annealing

Ion exchange in Rb-doped KTiOPO 4 has facilitated significant advancements in ferroelectric domain engineering, yet understanding the underlying mechanisms remains in its infancy. We perform time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry analysis on multiple periodically ion-exchanged and periodically poled Rb-doped KTiOPO 4 samples under different temperatures and annealing durations. The results are compared between annealing in air, which involved ex situ annealing before periodic poling, and vacuum annealing conducted in situ after periodic poling. The Rb + diffusion profile after periodic ion exchange forms a tooth-shaped pattern. We show that in situ annealing causes a surface pinning effect on the nonpolar face, limiting Rb + migration along the polar axis at the surface. Once the pinned layer is removed through milling, the underlying Rb + diffusion is distinctively different from the surface. Additionally, the rate of Rb + diffusion during in situ annealing is linear, while the periodic domain structures remain stable after annealing. These results contribute to understanding the ionic diffusion process in a ferroelectric ionic conductor and using ion exchange to tailor the linear and nonlinear properties of KTiOPO 4 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The global characteristics of atmosphere emissions in the lower thermosphere and their aeronomic implications

The green line of atomic oxygen and the Herzberg bands of molecular oxygen as observed from the OGO-4 airglow photometer are discussed in terms of their spatial and temporal distributions and their relation to the atomic oxygen content in the lower thermosphere. Daily maps of the distribution of emissions show considerable structure (cells, patches, and bands) with appreciable daily changes. When data are averaged over periods of several days in length, the resulting patterns have occasional tendencies to follow geomagnetic parallels. The Seasonal variations are characterized by maxima in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in October, with the Northern Hemisphere having substantially higher emission rates. Formulae are derived relating the vertical column emission rates of the green line and the Herzberg bands to the atomic oxygen peak density. Global averages for the time period for these data (August 1967 to January 1968), when converted to maximum atomic oxygen densities near 95 km, have a range of 2.0 x 10 to the 11th power/cu cm 2.7 x 10 to the 11th power/cu cm.

Reed, E. I.↗

The temporal patterns of disease severity and prevalence in schistosomiasis

Schistosomiasis is one of the most widespread public health problems in the world. In this work, we introduce an eco-epidemiological model for its transmission and dynamics with the purpose of explaining both intra- and inter-annual fluctuations of disease severity and prevalence. The model takes the form of a system of nonlinear differential equations that incorporate biological complexity associated with schistosome's life cycle, including a prepatent period in snails (i.e., the time between initial infection and onset of infectiousness). Nonlinear analysis is used to explore the parametric conditions that produce different temporal patterns (stationary, endemic, periodic, and chaotic). For the time-invariant model, we identify a transcritical and a Hopf bifurcation in the space of the human and snail infection parameters. The first corresponds to the occurrence of an endemic equilibrium, while the latter marks the transition to interannual periodic oscillations. We then investigate a more realistic time-varying model in which fertility of the intermediate host population is assumed to seasonally vary. We show that seasonality can give rise to a cascade of period-doubling bifurcations leading to chaos for larger, though realistic, values of the amplitude of the seasonal variation of fertility.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Thermal dewetting with a chemically heterogeneous nano-template for self-assembled L1 0 FePt nanoparticle arrays

In this paper, a design for the fabrication of metallic nanoparticles is presented by thermal dewetting with a chemically heterogeneous nano-template. For the template, we fabricate a nanostructured polystyrene-b-polydimethylsiloxane (PS-b-PDMS) film on a Si|SiO 2 substrate, followed by a thermal annealing and reactive ion etching (RIE) process. This gives a template composed of an ordered hexagonal array of SiOC hemispheres emerging in the polystyrene matrix. After the deposition of a FePt film on this template, we utilize the rapid thermal annealing (RTA) process, which provides in-plane stress, to achieve thermal dewetting and structural ordering of FePt simultaneously. Since the template is composed of different composition surfaces with periodically varied morphologies, it offers more tuning knobs to manipulate the nanostructures. We show that both the decrease in the area of the PS matrix and the increase in the strain energy relaxation transfer the dewetted pattern from the randomly distributed nanoparticles into a hexagonal periodic array of L1 0 FePt nanoparticles. Transmission electron microscopy with the in situ heating stage reveals the evolution of the dewetting process, and confirms that the positions of nanoparticles are aligned with those of the SiOC hemispheres. The nanoparticles formed by this template-dewetting show an average diameter and center-to-center distance of 19.30 ± 2.09 nm and 39.85 ± 4.80 nm, respectively. The hexagonal array of FePt nanoparticles reveals a large coercivity of 1.5 T, much larger than the nanoparticles fabricated by top-down approaches. Lastly, this approach offers an efficient pathway toward self-assembled nanostructures in a wide range of material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Periodicity of the earth's magnetic reversals

Results are presented from an attempt to perform a relatively comprehensive analysis of the evidence for a periodicity, with harmonics, of the observed regular reversals of the earth's magnetic field. The database considered covers 296 reversals over the past 165 Myr. Histograms with bins 1 Myr apart reveal only 30 Myr reversal patterns. The reversal dates are fitted to a linear periodic function and a spectrum is computed for the residuals at the adopted dates. The possible presence of multiple periodicities is evaluated and over various time intervals. The analysis shows that a recently observed 15 Myr periodicity is probably a harmonic of the 29.5-30.5 Myr period. The calculations do not confirm an inherent magnetic reversal property of the earth. The reversals may arise from tectonic events or from impacts from extraterrestrial objects.

Stothers, R. B.↗

Periodic Bursts of Jovian Non-Io Decametric Radio Emission

During the years 2000-2011 the radio instruments onboard Cassini, Wind and STEREO spacecraft have Recorded a large amount of the Jovian decametric radio emission (DAM). In this paper we report on the analysis of the new type of Jovian periodic radio bursts recently revealed in the decametric frequency range. These bursts, which are non-Io component of DAM, are characterized by a strong periodic reoccurrence over several Jovian days with a period approx. = 1:5% longer than the rotation rate of the planet's magnetosphere (System III). The bursts are typically observed between 4 and 12 MHz and their occurrence probability has been found to be significantly higher in the sector of Jovian Central Meridian Longitude between 300 deg. and 60 deg. (via 360 deg.). The stereoscopic multispacecraft observations have shown that the radio sources of the periodic bursts radiate in a non-axisymmetric hollow cone-like pattern and sub-corotate with Jupiter remaining active during several planet's rotations. The occurrence of the periodic non-Io DAM bursts is strongly correlated with pulses of the solar wind ram pressure at Jupiter. Moreover the periodic bursts exhibit a tendency to occur in groups every approx. 25 days. The polarization measurements have shown that the periodic bursts are right hand polarized radio emission associated with the Northern magnetic hemisphere of Jupiter. We suggest that periodic non-Io DAM bursts may be connected with the interchange instability in Io plasma torus triggered by the solar wind.

Jovian↗

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Curtis, Scott↗

Scanning tunneling microscopy study of epitaxial Fe 3 GeTe 2 monolayers on Bi 2 Te 3

Abstract Introducing magnetism to the surface state of topological insulators, such as Bi 2 Te 3 , can lead to a variety of interesting phenomena. We use scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) to study a single quintuple layer (QL) of the van der Waals magnet Fe 3 GeTe 2 (FGT) that is grown on Bi 2 Te 3 via molecular beam epitaxy. STM topographic images show that the FGT grows as free-standing islands on Bi 2 Te 3 and outwards from Bi 2 Te 3 steps. Atomic resolution imaging shows triangular lattices of 390 ± 10 pm for FGT and 430 ± 10 pm for Bi 2 Te 3 , consistent with the respective bulk crystals. A moiré pattern is observed on FGT regions with a periodicity of 4.3 ± 0.4 nm that can be attributed solely to this lattice mismatch and thus indicates zero rotational misalignment. While most of the surface is covered by a single QL of the FGT, there are small double QL regions, as well as regions with distinct chemical terminations due to an incomplete QL. The most common partial QL surface termination is the FeGe layer, in which the top two atomic layers are missing. This termination has a distinctive electronic structure and a 3 x 3 R 30 ∘ reconstruction overlaid on the moiré pattern in STM images. Magnetic circular dichroism measurements confirm these thin FGT films are ferromagnetic withT C ∼190 K.

Materials Science↗

On the Nature of Navier-stokes Turbulence

Several turbulent and nonturbulent solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations are obtained. The unaveraged equations are used numerically in conjunction with tools and concepts from nonlinear dynamics, including time series, phase portraits, Poincare sections, largest Liapunov exponents, power spectra, and strange attractors. Initially neighboring solutions for a low-Reynolds-number fully developed turbulence are compared. The solutions, separate exponentially with time, having a positive Liapunov exponent. Thus the turbulence is characterized as chaotic. In a search for solutions which contrast with the turbulent ones, the Reynolds number is reduced. Several qualitatively different flows are noted. These are, fully chaotic, complex period, weakly chaotic, simple periodic, and fixed-point. Of these, only the fully chaotic flows are classified as turbulent. Those flows have both a positive Liapunov exponent and Poincare sections without pattern. By contrast, the weakly chaotic flows have some pattern in their Poincare sections. The fixed-point and periodic flows are nonturbulent, since turbulence, is both time-dependent and aperiodic. Turbulent solutions are obtained in which energy cascades from large to small-scale motions. In general, the spectral energy transfer takes place between wavenumber bands that are considerably separated. The special transfer can occur either as a result of nonlinear turbulence self-interaction or by interaction of turbulence with mean gradients. Turbulent systems are compared with those studied in kinetic theory. The two types of systems are fundamentally different (continuous and dissipative as opposed to discrete and conservative), but there are similarities. For instance, both are nonlinear and show sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Also, the turbulent and molecular stress tensors are identical if the macroscopic velocities for the turbulent stress are replaced by molecular velocities.

Deissler, Robert G.↗

Turbulent Fluid Motion 6: Turbulence, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Deterministic Chaos

Several turbulent and nonturbulent solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations are obtained. The unaveraged equations are used numerically in conjunction with tools and concepts from nonlinear dynamics, including time series, phase portraits, Poincare sections, Liapunov exponents, power spectra, and strange attractors. Initially neighboring solutions for a low-Reynolds-number fully developed turbulence are compared. The turbulence is sustained by a nonrandom time-independent external force. The solutions, on the average, separate exponentially with time, having a positive Liapunov exponent. Thus, the turbulence is characterized as chaotic. In a search for solutions which contrast with the turbulent ones, the Reynolds number (or strength of the forcing) is reduced. Several qualitatively different flows are noted. These are, respectively, fully chaotic, complex periodic, weakly chaotic, simple periodic, and fixed-point. Of these, we classify only the fully chaotic flows as turbulent. Those flows have both a positive Liapunov exponent and Poincare sections without pattern. By contrast, the weakly chaotic flows, although having positive Liapunov exponents, have some pattern in their Poincare sections. The fixed-point and periodic flows are nonturbulent, since turbulence, as generally understood, is both time-dependent and aperiodic.

Deissler, Robert G.↗

The Intrinsic 150‐Day Periodicity of the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large‐scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150‐day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal‐mean circulation, and in hemispheric‐scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150‐day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced‐order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is associated with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM's variability connect to the models' ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Oceanographic influences on the sea ice cover in the Sea of Okhotsk

Sea ice conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk, as determined by satellite images from the electrically scanning microwave radiometer on board Nimbus 5, were analyzed in conjunction with the known oceanography. In particular, the sea ice coverage was compared with the bottom bathymetry and the surface currents, water temperatures, and salinity. It is found that ice forms first in cold, shallow, low salinity waters. Once formed, the ice seems to drift in a direction approximating the Okhotsk-Kuril current system. Two basic patterns of ice edge positioning which persist for significant periods were identified as a rectangular structure and a wedge structure. Each of these is strongly correlated with the bathymetry of the region and with the known current system, suggesting that convective depth and ocean currents play an important role in determining ice patterns.

Gratz, A. J.↗

Streamflow in the Columbia River Basin: Quantifying Changes Over the Period 1951-2008 and Determining the Drivers of Those Changes

Trend, detection, and attribution analyses were performed using naturalized streamflow observations and routed land surface model runoff for 10 subbasins in the Columbia River Basin during water years 1951–2008. The Energy Exascale Earth System land-surface model (ELM) version 1.0 and the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model were used to conduct semi-factorial simulations driven by multiple sets of bias-corrected forcing data sets. Four main potential drivers, including climate change (CLMT), CO 2 concentration (CO 2 ), nitrogen deposition (NDEP), and land use and land cover change (LULCC), were analyzed during the assessment. All subbasins showed significant (α = 0.10) declines in the observed amount of annual total streamflow, except for the Middle and Upper Snake and Upper Columbia Subbasins. These declines were led by significant decreases in June–October streamflow, which also directly led to significant decreases in peak and summer streamflow. Except for the Snake River Subbasins, LULCC had the same pattern of declines in monthly streamflow, but the period was shifted to May–September. NDEP also had significant trends in June–October; however, rather than decreases, the trends showed significant increases in streamflow. While there were significant trends in CO 2 , NDEP, and LULCC, their signals of change were weak in comparison to the signal in CLMT and the natural internal variability found in streamflow. Overall, the detection and attribution analysis showed that the historical changes found in annual total, center of timing of, and summer mean streamflow could be attributed to changing climate and variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ionospheric acoustic and gravity wave activity above low-latitude thunderstorms

In this report, we study the correlation between thunderstorm activity and ionospheric gravity and acoustic waves in the low-latitude ionosphere. We use ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements from the Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN) and lightning measurements from the World- Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). We find that ionospheric acoustic waves show a strong diurnal pattern in summer, peaking in the pre-midnight time period. However, the peak magnitude does not correspond to thunderstorm area, and the peak time is significantly after the peak in thunderstorm activity. Wintertime acoustic wave activity has no discernable pattern in these data. The coverage area of ionospheric gravity waves in the summer was found to increase with increasing thunderstorm activity. Wintertime gravity wave activity has an observable diurnal pattern unrelated to thunderstorm activity. These findings show that while thunderstorms are not the only, or dominant source of ionospheric perturbations at low-latitudes, they do have an observable effect on gravity wave activity and could be influential in acoustic wave activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Phase I Closeout Report: Invoking Artificial Neural Networks to Measure Insider Threat Mitigation

Researchers from Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and the University of Texas at Austin (UT) conducted this study to explore the effectiveness of commercial artificial neural network (ANN) software to improve insider threat detection and mitigation (ITDM). This study hypothesized that ANNs could be "trainee to learn patterns of organizational behaviors, detect off-normal (or anomalous) deviations from these patterns, and alert when certain types, frequencies, or quantities of deviations emerge. The ReconaSense ANN system was installed at UT's Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory (NETL) and collected 13,653 access control data points and 694 intrusion sensor data points over a three-month period. Preliminary analysis of this baseline data demonstrated regularized patterns of life in the facility, and that off-normal behaviors are detectable under certain situations -- even for a facility with anticipated highly non-routine, operational behaviors. Completion of this pilot study demonstrated how the ReconaSense ANN could be used to identify expected operational patterns and detect unexpected anomalous behaviors in support of a data-analytic approach to ITDM. While additional studies are needed to fully understand and characterize this system, the results of this initial study are overall very promising for demonstrating a new framework for ITDM utilizing ANNs and data analysis techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Measuring forest landscape patterns in the Cascade Range of Oregon, USA

This paper describes the use of a set of spatial statistics to quantify the landscape pattern caused by the patchwork of clearcuts made over a 15-year period in the western Cascades of Oregon. Fifteen areas were selected at random to represent a diversity of landscape fragmentation patterns. Managed forest stands (patches) were digitized and analyzed to produce both tabular and mapped information describing patch size, shape, abundance and spacing, and matrix characteristics of a given area. In addition, a GIS fragmentation index was developed which was found to be sensitive to patch abundance and to the spatial distribution of patches. Use of the GIS-derived index provides an automated method of determining the level of forest fragmentation and can be used to facilitate spatial analysis of the landscape for later coordination with field and remotely sensed data. A comparison of the spatial statistics calculated for the two years indicates an increase in forest fragmentation as characterized by an increase in mean patch abundance and a decrease in interpatch distance, amount of interior natural forest habitat, and the GIS fragmentation index. Such statistics capable of quantifying patch shape and spatial distribution may prove important in the evaluation of the changing character of interior and edge habitats for wildlife.

Ripple, William J.↗