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DOE OSTI2024

DuraMAT: Building a Consortium to Accelerate the Photovoltaic Module Reliability Learning Cycle

Durable and reliable photovoltaic (PV) modules are critical to enabling an efficient transition to sustainable energy generation. The rate at which new module designs and materials are developed and deployed currently outpaces the rate at which we can identify failure mechanisms and understand degradation rates. Increasing the service life of PV modules, and our ability to predict performance over time, requires more durable materials and designs, better durability testing, more extensive material characterization, robust modeling, and methods to cross-examine historical performance data to extract meaningful results. This is a multidisciplinary challenge that requires expertise from a broad range of fields and, therefore, benefits significantly from a collaborative approach. In this Perspective, we outline the approach taken by the Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT), present a few case studies where our approach was successful, and provide an outlook on where this approach might be applied as the PV technology landscape continues to rapidly evolve. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Setting Priorities for Photovoltaic Reliability Research Using Criticality Analysis

A forward-looking research opportunity number (RON) is defined for photovoltaic reliability researchers. The RON enables researchers to prioritize their efforts toward the highest impact. For a given degradation mode, the RON is based on three factors: the effect on levelized cost of electricity, the susceptibility of future module products, and the maturity of accelerated tests that can detect and quantify the mode. Reporting bias is avoided because the RON does not rely on polls. The RON is derived for three example cases: light and elevated temperature degradation, backsheet cracking, and antireflective coating abrasion. Finally, these examples demonstrate that targeted research has reduced the risk for these modes over the last several years.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Evaluation Of Year 2020 IEEE RTS Generation Reliability Indices

A new IEEE Reliability Test System (2017 update) with wind and solar sources modeling 2020 has been created by NREL and posted on the GitHub RTS-GMLC repository. A simple procedure duplicates the 1979 RTS 'exact' indices and calculates indices for the 1996 RTS and the new 2020 Model RTS 'exact' indices. Extremely fast execution is realized by simply 'looking up' the exact LOLPs each hour from a COPT. Wind and solar are treated as hourly demand reducers. Computer program codes are included.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Moving Toward Quantifying Reliability - The Next Step in a Rapidly Maturing PV Industry: Preprint

Some may say that PV modules are moving toward being a simple commodity, but most major PV customers ask: 'How can I minimize chances of a module recall?' Or, 'How can I quantify the added value of a 'premium' module?' Or, 'How can I assess the value of an old PV system that I'm thinking of purchasing?' These are all questions that PVQAT (the International PV Quality Assurance Task Force) and partner organizations are working to answer. Defining standard methods for ensuring minimal acceptable quality of PV modules, differentiating modules that provide added value in the toughest of environments, and creating a process (e.g. through IECRE [1]) that can follow a PV system from design through installation and operation are tough tasks, but having standard approaches for these will increase confidence, reduce costs, and be a critical foundation of a mature PV industry. This paper summarizes current needs for new tests, some challenges for defining those tests, and some of the key efforts toward development of international standards, emphasizing that meaningful quantification of reliability (as in defining a service life prediction) must be done in the context of a specific product with design parameters defined through a quality management system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

PV System 'Availability' as a Reliability Metric -- Improving Standards, Contract Language and Performance Models

The use of the term 'availability' to describe a photovoltaic (PV) system and power plant has been fraught with confusion for many years. A term that is meant to describe equipment operational status is often omitted, misapplied or inaccurately combined with PV performance metrics due to attempts to measure performance and reliability through the lens of traditional power plant language. This paper discusses three areas where current research in standards, contract language and performance modeling is improving the way availability is used with regards to photovoltaic systems and power plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reliability Analysis of Field-aged Glass/Glass PV Modules: Influence of Different Encapsulant Types

This paper presents a preliminary reliability analysis of field-aged glass/glass (G/G) PV modules. Several characterization tests were performed on more than 60 modules with two different encapsulant types (EVA and ionomer) exposed in hot-dry Arizona (AZ) climate over 10-35 years. The common degradation mode observed in both encapsulant types was the delamination of encapsulant along with encapsulant browning (EVA only), glass cracking (EVA only), and metallic corrosion over junction box area (ionomer only). The EVA encapsulated G/G modules showed the higher median power degradation rate at 0.91-1.99%/yr whereas modules with ionomer showed the lower at 0.21%/yr.

photovoltaic, failures, field exposed, glass/glass↗

DOE OSTI2021

Employing Fracture Statistics to Track Cell Reliability Through Module Fabrication

In this work we demonstrate how fracture statistics may be employed to track cell reliability through module fabrication steps. We were able to detect how cell cutting equipment could reduce cell fracture strain by 25 % as well as increase its variability. A smaller reduction was found to result from the ribbon soldering operation, and all cells measured were weaker when strained in an orientation perpendicular to the gridlines. Cell fracture measurements were found to be consistent with the number of cracked cells experienced in full sized modules exposed to mechanical loading. A structural mechanics model was created to elucidate how the requisite fracture strain is developed in a cell encapsulated within a PV module and demonstrates that this strain decreases more than 50 % from its center to edge when placed within the inner loading span of four-point flexure. The associated implications on the apparent cell strength is examined with an effective volume treatment.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2024

High Temperature Copper Metallization: Demand, Hurdles and Reliability

As newer cells structures come online, the pressing need to replace silver in the metallization pastes has renewed interest in alternative technologies employing base metals. Copper typically leads the charge with its abundance and lower cost but has faced numerous obstacles from relatively higher oxidation and diffusion rates which can damage the lifetime of the devices. In this study, a low-cost alternative to silver metallization pastes has been shown on PERC cells. The screen printable copper paste can be fired in air at temperatures >500 degrees C, and the impact of processing conditions and equipment on the performance and reliability of 274 cm2 cells have been evaluated. Through damp heat testing of micro-modules using 16 cm2 cells, routes that can lead to both the failure and success of durable contacts have been demonstrated.

copper↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Performance and Reliability of Screen-Printable Fire-Through Copper Paste on PERC Solar Cells

In this work, we present the performance and reliability of a fire-through copper (Cu) paste which has been screen printed on c-Si solar cell with passivated emitter rear contact (PERC). The Cu paste is fired through silicon nitride (SiN) anti-reflection coating at a peak temperature of 630 degrees C . SEM images of the Cu paste show a Cu core with ~200 nm oxide shell around the particles. This conductive oxide layer acts as a diffusion barrier between Cu and Si and prevents the degradation of cell performance during accelerated aging conditions. An efficiency of 19.250% has been achieved with Voc=654mV,FF= 76.68%, Jsc=38.40 m.A/cm 2 for champion PERC cells. Accelerated testing of the PERC mini-modules in damp heat chamber with 85 degrees C and 85% humidity have demonstrated that the devices are operational even after 1,500 hours. Devices with screen printed Ag contacts on the front side have been studied in parallel to the Cu contacts for comparison.

copper↗

DOE OSTI2019

Synchrotron X-Ray Microdiffraction Investigation of Scaling Effects on Reliability for Through-Silicon Vias for 3-D Integration

Synchrotron x-ray microdiffraction has been applied to TSV characterization in various studies for nondestructive inspection with submicron resolution due to its high beam intensity and penetration depth. Here, the application of this technique to TSV investigations is examined and the correlation of the plastic deformation to the microstructure and extrusion behavior along with the effect of TSV dimensional scaling is examined. It is shown that the variability of the copper microstructure and resulting TSV behavior requires a larger number of samples in order to report statistically significant observations. The role of the microstructure in creating statistical scatter is demonstrated through microdiffraction measurements of grain orientation correlated with the observed peak widening, which shows that degraded TSV reliability is largely due to the high elastic anisotropy of copper. After taking the statistical variations into account, the scaling effect was clearly observed, with larger plastic deformation in 2μm diameter TSVs than in 5μm diameter TSVs consistent with microstructure variations. This is confirmed by TSV extrusion measurements, which show that the magnitude and statistical spread of the via extrusion for the 2μm diameter TSVs is higher than that of the 5μm diameter TSVs. These findings, confirmed by thermomechanical simulation, demonstrate first that large sample sizes are required in copper TSV investigations due to high variability, which is not improved with scaling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Reliability and Maintainability Data for Lead Lithium Cooling Systems

This article presents component failure rate data for use in assessment of lead lithium cooling systems. Best estimate data applicable to this liquid metal coolant is presented. Repair times for similar components are also referenced in this work. These data support probabilistic safety assessment and reliability, availability, maintainability and inspectability analyses.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Feasibility and Reliability of a Single Layer Polymeric PV Backsheet in White, Transparent, or Luminescent Concentrator Options

A single layer polymeric backsheet material has been evaluated for use in silicon PV modules and as a luminescent solar collector. Physical and optical properties of the backsheet have been examined after damp heat, thermal cycling, and UV exposure for two different polymeric grades and three different pigment options including white, transparent, and photo-luminescent. As the importance of developing a white backsheet that is cost-effective, recyclable, and reliable is evident, the increased availability and use of bifacial cells is bound to increase the demand for transparent backsheets as well. In today's market, the cost of a clear backsheet is significantly higher than a white backsheet which is motivation for research and development of new material options in this field. Results from these extensive tests reveal the need for continued research in white pigments and positive results in transparent and luminescent backsheet options.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-201-14: Is Maximum Skin Dose a Reliable Metric for Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation with Brachytherapy?

Purpose: To evaluate the reliability of the maximum point dose (Dmax) to the skin surface as a dosimetric constraint, we investigated the correlation between Dmax at the skin surface and dose metrics at various definitions of skin thickness. Methods: 42 patients treated with APBI using a Strut Adjusted Volume Implant (SAVI) applicator between 2010 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Target (PTV-EVAL) and organs at risk (OARs: skin, lung, and ribs) were delineated on a CT following NSABP B-39 guidelines. Six skin structures were contoured: a rind 3cm external to the body surface and 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5mm thick rinds deep to the body surface. Inverse planning simulated annealing optimization was used to deliver 32–34Gy in 8-10 fractions to the target while minimizing OAR doses. Dmax, D0.1cc, D1.0cc, and D2.0cc to the various skin structures were calculated. Linear regressions between the metrics were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}). Results: The average±SD PTV-EVAL volume and cavity-to-skin distances were 71.1±28.5cc and 6.9±5.0mm. The target V90 and V95 were 97.3±2.3% and 95.1±3.2%. The Dmax to the skin structures were 78.7±10.2% (skin surface), 82.2±10.7% (skin-1mm), 89.4±12.6% (skin-2mm), 97.9±15.4% (skin-3mm), 114.1±32.5% (skin-4mm), and 157.0±85.3% (skin-5mm). Linear regression analysis showed D1.0cc and D2.0cc to the skin 1mm and Dmax to the skin-4mm and 5mm were poorly correlated with other metrics (R{sup 2}=0.413±0.204). Dmax to the skin surface was well correlated (R{sup 2}=0.910±0.047) and D1.0cc to the skin-3mm was strongly correlated with all subsurface skin layers (R{sup 2}=0.935±0.050). Conclusion: Dmax to the skin surface is a relevant metric for breast skin dose. Contouring discontinuities in the skin with a 1mm subsurface rind and the active dwells in the skin 4 and 5mm introduced significant variations in skin DVH. D0.1cc, D1.0cc, and D2.0cc to a 3mm skin rind are more robust metrics in breast brachytherapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

MO-DE-207B-11: Reliability of PET/CT Radiomics Features in Functional and Morphological Components of NSCLC Lesions: A Repeatability Analysis in a Prospective Multicenter Cohort

Purpose: The goal of this study was to evaluate the repeatability of radiomics features (intensity, shape and heterogeneity) in both PET and low-dose CT components of test-retest FDG-PET/CT images in a prospective multicenter cohort of 74 NSCLC patients from ACRIN 6678 and a similar Merck trial. Methods: Seventy-four patients with stage III-IV NCSLC were prospectively included. The primary tumor and up to 3 additional lesions per patient were analyzed. The Fuzzy Locally Adaptive Bayesian algorithm was used to automatically delineate metabolically active volume (MAV) in PET. The 3D SlicerTM software was exploited to delineate anatomical volumes (AV) in CT. Ten intensity first-order features, as well as 26 textural features and four 3D shape descriptors were calculated from tumour volumes in both modalities. The repeatability of each metric was assessed by Bland-Altman analysis. Results: One hundred and five lesions (primary tumors and nodal or distant metastases) were delineated and characterized. The MAV and AV determination had a repeatability of −1.4±11.0% and −1.2±18.7% respectively. Several shape and heterogeneity features were found to be highly or moderately repeatable (e.g., sphericity, co-occurrence entropy or intensity size-zone matrix zone percentage), whereas others were confirmed as unreliable with much higher variability (more than twice that of the corresponding volume determination). Conclusion: Our results in this large multicenter cohort with more than 100 measurements confirm the PET findings in previous studies (with <30 lesions). In addition, our study is the first to explore the repeatability of radiomics features in the low-dose CT component of PET/CT acquisitions (previous studies considered dosimetry CT, CE-CT or CBCT). Several features were identified as reliable in both PET and CT components and could be used to build prognostic models. This work has received a French government support granted to the CominLabs excellence laboratory and managed by the National Research Agency in the “Investing for the Future” program under reference ANR-10-LABX-07-01, and support from the city of Brest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2023

What is Considered Reliable Information?

Pre-editorial draft chapter for book titled: "Nano- Safety: What we need to know to Protect Workers" edited by Dr. Dominick Fazarro- University of Texas at Tyler. Chapter 6 addresses two complementary aspects of communicating information related to all things “nano”. The first of these is the general concept of reliable information and its compatible concept of objective evidence. Second we will address the overuse and sometimes conflicting use of the modifier and short-form or prefix “nano”. How these two complementary aspects of communicating information are employed can complicate the usability of information, especially when considering the use of available research and impacts of nanotechnologies on worker safety and health.

information reliability, data integrity, nano-safe↗

DOE OSTI2016

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Investigation of High-Speed-Shaft Bearing Loads

The loads and contact stresses in the bearings of the high speed shaft section of the Gearbox Reliability Collaborative gearbox are examined in this paper. The loads were measured though strain gauges installed on the bearing outer races during dynamometer testing of the gearbox. Loads and stresses were also predicted with a simple analytical model and higher-fidelity commercial models. The experimental data compared favorably to each model, and bearing stresses were below thresholds for contact fatigue and axial cracking.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Phase 3 Gearbox 3 Test Plan

This document describes the Phase 3 test plan for the Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Gearbox #3. The primary test objective is to measure the planetary load sharing characteristics in the same conditions as the original gearbox design. If the measured load-sharing characteristics are close to the design model, the projected three-times improvement in planetary section predicted fatigue life and the efficacy of preloaded tapered roller bearings in mitigating the planetary bearing fatigue failure mode will have been demonstrated.

17 WIND ENERGY↗