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DOE OSTI2024

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie I [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-88838 for the English translation of this document.

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DOE OSTI2024

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie II [Slides]

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient Interdependent Systems Recovery Modeling with DeepONets

Modeling the recovery of interdependent critical infrastructure is a key component of quantifying and optimizing societal resilience to disruptive events. However, simulating the recovery of large-scale interdependent systems under random disruptive events is computationally expensive. Therefore, we propose the application of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets) in this paper to accelerate the recovery modeling of interdependent systems. DeepONets are ML architectures which identify mathematical operators from data. The form of governing equations DeepONets identify and the governing equation of interdependent systems recovery model are similar. Therefore, we hypothesize that DeepONets can efficiently model the interdependent systems recovery with little training data. We applied DeepONets to a simple case of four interdependent systems with sixteen states. DeepONets, overall, performed satisfactorily in predicting the recovery of these interdependent systems for out of training sample data when compared to reference results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

ADROC: An Emulation Experimentation Platform for Advancing Resilience of Control Systems

Cyberattacks against industrial control systems have increased over the last decade, making it more critical than ever for system owners to have the tools necessary to understand the cyber resilience of their systems. However, existing tools are often qualitative, subject matter expertise-driven, or highly generic, making thorough, data-driven cyber resilience analysis challenging. The ADROC project proposed to develop a platform to enable efficient, repeatable, data-driven cyber resilience analysis for cyber-physical systems. The approach consists of two phases of modeling: computationally efficient math modeling and high-fidelity emulations. The first phase allows for scenarios of low concern to be quickly filtered out, conserving resources available for analysis. The second phase supports more detailed scenario analysis, which is more predictive of real-world systems. Data extracted from experiments is used to calculate cyber resilience metrics. ADROC then ranks scenarios based on these metrics, enabling prioritization of system resources to improve cyber resilience.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Increased salinity decreases annual gross primary productivity at a Northern California brackish tidal marsh

Tidal marshes sequester 11.4–87.0 Tg C yr –1 globally, but climate change impacts can threaten the carbon capture potential of these ecosystems. Tidal marshes occur across a wide range of salinity, with brackish marshes (0.5–18 ppt (parts per thousand)) dominating global tidal marsh extents. A diverse mix of freshwater- and saltwater-tolerant plant and microbial communities has led researchers to predict that carbon cycling in brackish wetlands may be less sensitive to changes in salinity than fresh- or saltwater wetlands. Rush Ranch, a well-monitored brackish tidal wetland of the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, experiences highly variable annual salinity regimes. Within a five-year period (2014–2018), Rush Ranch experienced particularly extreme drought-induced salinization during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons. During drought years, tidal channel salinity rose from a 15 year baseline of 4.7 ppt to growing season peaks of 10.3 ppt and 12.5 ppt. Continuous eddy covariance data from 2014 to 2018 demonstrate that during drought summers, gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by 24%, whereas ecosystem respiration remained similar among all five years. Stepwise linear regression revealed that salinity, not air temperature or tidal height, was the dominant driver of annual GPP. A random forest model trained to predict GPP based on environmental data from low salinity years (i.e. naive to salinization) significantly over predicted GPP in drought years. When growing season salinities were doubled, annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 decreased by up to 30%. These results provide ecosystem-scale evidence that increased salinity influences CO 2 fluxes dominantly through reductions in GPP. This relationship provides a starting point for incorporating the effect of changes in salinity in wetland carbon models, which could improve wetland carbon forecasting and management for climate resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Droop Setting for Congestion Reduction in a 100% Grid-Forming Inverter-based Power System

he high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) introduces new challenges to power systems due to the complex inverter control. However, IBRs can be configured to maximize their benefits to improve system resilience and reliability. This paper proposes a steady-state optimization model that aims to mitigate transmission congestion in a 100% grid- forming (GFM) IBR-based power system. This goal is achieved by determining the optimal droop settings for the GFM IBRs under different congestion conditions due to renewable energy and load variations. The numerical solution is rigorously verified by a high-fidelity model of the IEEE 39-bus test system with detailed GFM IBR control in the time-domain electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation tool PSCAD. The numerical solution and simulation results show a significant congestion reduction while meeting all other operating requirements. It is also observed that the numerical solving time is substantially less compared to the EMT simulation time.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Topology-Agnostic, Scalable, Self-Healing, and Cost-Aware Protection of Microgrids

Most microgrid protection schemes found in published literature suffer from a lack of generality in that they work well for the assumed topology, including type and placement of sources. Other generic protection schemes tend to be too complicated, too expensive, or both. To overcome these draw- backs, a topology-agnostic, scalable, and cost-aware protection based on fundamental principles that work in the presence of high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is developed and tested in this paper. Here, the protection system also implements stable automatic reconfiguration of the healthy sections of the system after clearance of fault, thus increasing resilience by self- healing. To achieve this ambitious goal, stable inverter models are developed that operate in unbalanced networks in grid-connected and islanded modes, even with 100% IBRs, share power without conflicting controls, and can ride through faults while limiting fault currents. The scheme is tested for primary and backup protection and reconfiguration on the IEEE 123-node feeder in grid-connected and islanded modes with 15 IBRs connected to the system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

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DOE OSTI2025

sup3ruhi (Super Resolution for Renewable Resource Data and Urban Heat Islands) [SWR-25-05]

Urban heat is a growing concern, particularly in dense metropolitan areas where high temperatures increase the risk of heat-related illness and drive energy expenses for cooling. Estimating the effects of urban heat remains a challenge due to limitations in describing the built environment, computational constraints, and the need for high-resolution data. This software presents open-source, computationally efficient machine learning methods that enhance the accuracy of urban temperature estimates compared to historical reanalysis data. Models trained using this software have been applied to urban microclimates in Los Angeles and Seattle showing greater accuracy and less bias when compared to low-resolution reanalysis datasets like ERA5 and even when compared to high-resolution mesoscale numerical weather models like WRF with an urban canopy model. Initial findings highlight how machine learning can support urban heat resilience planning by enabling improved assessments of local heat islands, mitigation strategies, and their energy implications. This software is an extension of (sup3r). This software supports the following publication: Buster, Grant, et al. Tackling Extreme Urban Heat: A Machine Learning Approach to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change and the Efficacy of Climate Adaptation Strategies in Urban Microclimates. arXiv:2411.05952, arXiv, 8 Nov. 2024. arXiv.org, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.05952. And has related public data records available at: Buster, Grant, Cox, Jordan, Benton, Brandon, and King, Ryan. Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data and Urban Heat Islands (Sup3rUHI). United States: N.p., 16 Oct, 2024. Web. https://data.openei.org/submissions/6220.

Buster, Grant [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-scale Dynamics of Water Regulation by Bacteria in Synthetic Soil Microsystems (Final Technical Report)

The objective of this project was to develop a multifunctional in situ platform to link gene expression, regulation, and function with the spatiotemporal context of the whole cell environment. In particular, we focus on a synthetic rhizosphere microhabitat and spatial regulation of genes encoding production of exopolysaccharides, or EPS. We have fully met this objective and report results that support the hypothesis: microbial EPS production, acting at pore throats, limits water evaporation and promotes resilience of terrestrial soil systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Influence of Vegetation Canopy Architecture on Dynamics of Spatiotemporal Light Distribution and its Effect on Land-Biosphere-Atmosphere Fluxes of Energy, Carbon, and Water

The dynamic spatiotemporal distribution of light and micro climatic variables (wind speed, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, humidity, pressure, and air temperature) within the plant canopy as determined by the canopy architecture play a critical role in land-biosphere-atmosphere (LBA) photosynthetic carbon uptake, transpiratory water loss and energy partitioning. Vegetation models that include effects of sun and shade flecks, leaf temperature and energy balance partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, and reduced turbulent mixing in dense vegetation canopies can accurately predict canopy performance, particularly its shaded leaves, which can constitute 80% of leaf area and contribute up to 50% of carbon update and 65% of water loss. However, current vegetation models with their bulk characterization of shaded leaves poorly represent the complex three dimensional (3D) canopy architecture are insufficient to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of shaded leaves. Here, we propose to employ an x-ray computed tomography (XCT) imaging technique in combination with an automated, high throughput, image processing pipeline (3DArch, to be developed) to obtain an explicit 3D triangulated surface mesh of a plant canopy (Fig 1). 3DArch would provide a much needed technological jump in 3D LBA modeling where computer generated artificial 3D models suffer from lack of high resolution detailed canopy architecture parameters. The 3D canopy surface mesh output from 3DArch is coupled with an explicit 3D forward ray tracing model (fastTracer) to obtain a high resolution representation of the dynamic spatiotemporal light environment within the canopy over the course of a day (Fig 1). The results from the light attenuation model are then coupled with a process based multi-scale bio-physical canopy and leaf model of photosynthesis (PlantGro) to get fluxes of carbon, water and energy at the leaf and canopy scale, in addition to estimating whole plant carbon uptake, and water loss. Our proposed model framework would be the first of its kind to provide a breakthrough capability in the field of process-based plant modeling that bridges the key technological gap in shaded leaf modeling through explicit representation of 3D canopy architecture. Computer generated artificial 3D model canopy simulations on grasses show that the canopy light distribution does not follow an exponential behavior as assumed in most 1D vegetation models, but rather exhibits a heterogeneous behavior, with a small but significant portion of interior canopy leaves experiencing peak light levels due to sun flecks while the rest of the canopy receives substantially lower light levels. These results indicate a bias in traditional models that overestimates shaded leaf contribution towards whole canopy photosynthesis by up to 15% and underestimate transpiration by up to 12% with an associated increase in sensible heat fluxes since photosynthesis, transpiration and energy partitioning are tightly coupled processes. However, these test results need to be validated using the 3D architecture obtained from a real plant imaged in 3D using 3DArch, rather than an artificial model plant. Our proposed model framework would allow us to identify inefficiencies in canopy light distribution and prescribe optimal canopy architectures (leaf optical properties, leaf area, leaf angles, row spacing, planting density, etc.) to traditional and genetic engineering based crop breeders, for maximizing target functions such as light use efficiency, water use efficiency, drought tolerance, crop yield, crop resilience etc., with important applications in biofuel crops such as sorghum, and switchgrass. Our model can also be applied for designing optimal canopy architecture that increase surface albedo as a mitigation strategy for global warming and projections of crop yield for future food and water security under climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Energy Resilience of Office Buildings: Development and Testing of a Simplified Metric for Real Estate Stakeholders

Increasing concern over higher frequency extreme weather events is driving a push towards a more resilient built environment. In recent years there has been growing interest in understanding how to evaluate, measure, and improve building energy resilience, i.e., the ability of a building to provide energy-related services in the event of a local or regional power outage. In addition to human health and safety, many stakeholders are keenly interested in the ability of a building to allow continuity of operations and minimize business disruption. Office buildings are subject to significant economic losses when building operations are disrupted due to a power outage. We propose “occupant hours lost” (OHL) as a means to measure the business productivity lost as the result of a power outage in office buildings. OHL is determined based on indoor conditions in each space for each hour during a power outage, and then aggregated spatially and temporally to determine the whole building OHL. We used quasi-Monte Carlo parametric energy simulations to demonstrate how the OHL metric varies due to different building characteristics across different climate zones and seasons. The simulation dataset was then used to develop simple regression models for assessing the impact of ten key building characteristics on OHL. The most impactful were window-to-wall ratio and window characteristics. The regression models show promise as a simple means to assess and screen for resilience using basic building characteristics, especially for non-critical facilities where it may not be viable to conduct detailed engineering analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cortical proteins may provide motor resilience in older adults

Motor resilience proteins may be a high value therapeutic target that offset the negative effects of pathologies on motor function. This study sought to identify cortical proteins associated with motor decline unexplained by brain pathologies that provide motor resilience. We studied 1226 older decedents with annual motor testing, postmortem brain pathologies and quantified 226 proteotypic peptides in prefrontal cortex. Twenty peptides remained associated with motor decline in models controlling for ten brain pathologies (FDR < 0.05). Higher levels of nine peptides and lower levels of eleven peptides were related to slower decline. A higher motor resilience protein score based on averaging the levels of all 20 peptides was related to slower motor decline, less severe parkinsonism and lower odds of mobility disability before death. Cortical proteins may provide motor resilience. Targeting these proteins in further drug discovery may yield novel interventions to maintain motor function in old age.

Buchman, Aron↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Operation and Impact Assessment of Distributed Wind for Improving Efficiency and Resilience of Rural Electricity Systems

This project aims to empower rural utilities by developing advanced optimization models and algorithms for effectively integrating distributed wind energy alongside battery storage and other distributed energy resources (DERs). The primary objectives are to reduce peak demand, ensure reliable emergency power supply, and regulate voltage and frequency. To address operational challenges, the project introduces innovative mitigation strategies and ultrafast assessment frameworks to evaluate the impacts of distributed wind and DERs on rural grids, offering actionable solutions to potential issues. Economic viability is assessed through cost-benefit analysis using real rural utility data, ensuring the practical application of the project outcomes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗

DOE OSTI2020

Aeroelastic Modeling and Full-Scale Loads Measurements for Investigation of Single-Axis PV Tracker Wind-Driven Dynamic Instabilities

While wind tunnel testing and proprietary industry modeling tools have been used for years to design and develop PV tracker systems, wind induced dynamic failures are becoming more prevalent and high visibility. Designers and manufactures have reacted by developing new systems or add-on products to improve system dynamics adding to overall system costs. To better understand the physics and aeroelastic behavior that leads to dynamic instabilities NREL researches have taken up a first of a kind study to both develop open source aeroelastic modeling tools and measure tracker loads on a single axis full-scale tracker system at a high wind site. These modeling tools can simulate the fluid-structure interaction driving torsional instabilities under a wide range of turbulent inflow conditions and stow angles. The results of these simulations reveal the flow features associated with panel rotation and the induced loads in the structure. The experimental load measurements can be used to validate models and provide a quantifiable understanding of tracker dynamics, critical loads paths, identify instability markers, inform resilient design, and suggest the most favorable stow approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Considerations for Distributed Energy Resource Integration in Puerto Rico: DOE Multi-Lab Grid Modeling Support for Puerto Rico; Analytical Support for Interconnection and IEEE Std 1547-2018 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Task 3.0)

To ensure the sustainable long-term recovery of Puerto Rico's electric power grid from hurricanes María and Irma and to build capacity to manage future potential natural disasters in the most secure and resilient way, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) convened experts from multiple national laboratories to develop a comprehensive set of data, models, analytic tools, and studies, considering inputs from a wide variety of stakeholder groups, to support technically sound recommendations for Puerto Rico's energy investment decisions. A resilient electric grid is vital to Puerto Rico's security, economy, and way of life, and it will provide the foundation for essential services that people and businesses on the island rely on every day. This report shows progress for a grid modeling task under the DOE-sponsored project that is a collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and other national laboratories. In Phase 1 of the multilab effort to support Puerto Rico's recovery, NREL provided the utility company Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) recommendations for a new framework of interconnection standards to accelerate the integration of utility-scale, transmission-connected renewable electrical generation and energy storage that ensure cross-technology compatibility and enable high deployment levels without compromising grid reliably, safety, or security. This Phase 2 report focuses on the interconnection of distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system in Puerto Rico. This report is intended to familiarize the reader with Puerto Rico's distribution infrastructure and operational practices and procedures that are relevant to DER interconnection. The report also provides considerations for streamlining the interconnection process given the expected increase in deployments resulting from Puerto Rico's renewable portfolio standard (RPS) goal of 100% renewables by 2050. Accordingly, the report identifies considerations and concerns associated with the increase in intermittent generation, strategies for DER interconnection best practices, and the potential use of the latest technological solutions identified in the latest revision of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 1547-2018 interconnection standard.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Postdisaster Routing of Movable Energy Resources for Enhanced Distribution System Resilience: A Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Approach

The deployment of movable energy resources (MERs) can be an effective strategy to restore critical loads to enhance power system resilience when no other energy sources are available after the occurrence of an extreme event. Since the optimal locations of MERs following an extreme event are dependent on system operating states (e.g., the loads at each node, on/off status of system branches, and so on), existing analytical and population-based approaches must repeat the entire analysis and calculation when the system operating states change. On the contrary, if deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based algorithms are sufficiently trained with a wide range of scenarios, they can quickly find optimal or near-optimal locations irrespective of changes in system states. A deep Q-learning-based approach is proposed for optimal MER deployment to enhance power system resilience. MERs can be also utilized to complement other types of resources, if available. The proposed approach operates in two stages after the occurrence of extreme events. In the first stage, the distribution network is represented as a graph, and the network is then reconfigured using tie switches by using Kruskal’s spanning forest search algorithm (KSFSA). To maximize critical load recovery, the optimal or near-optimal locations of MERs are chosen in the second stage. Further, case studies on a 33-node distribution system and a modified IEEE 123-node system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for postdisaster routing of MERs.

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