Results for “Risk Based Analysis” — Page 27

NASA NTRS2019

Follow-on studies using the Voyager spacecraft thermal model

The 42-year-old Voyager mission, now named the Voyager Interstellar Mission (VIM) is operating long beyond its design life. In 2012, Voyager 1 crossed the heliopause into interstellar space and Voyager 2 made the same transit in November 2018. Due to declining power output from the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) the Science and Flight Operations teams continue to make difficult choices in terms of managing both the power and thermal margins to preserve critical science observations and maintain the health of the two spacecraft. A previous paper, “Creating a Voyager Thermal Model 39 Years Into the Flight Mission, Along With Model Correlation and Application” described how a thermal model of these 1977 spacecraft was developed and correlated without many design artifacts and with limited temperature telemetry. This paper describes how the thermal model has been used to establish an Allowable Flight Temperature (AFT) limit for hydrazine propellant in the propulsion subsystem to minimize the risk of freezing. Voyager 2 temperatures have already descended to this limit in the vicinity of the Roll thruster propellant lines. The Flight Operations team has investigated several ways of detecting propellant freezing based on analysis and trending of thruster performance telemetry. In addition, the Voyager thermal model is being used to predict the spacecraft response to possible changes in power state. These changes could involve turning off outboard science instruments and/or their heaters to increase power margin and hence power dissipation inside the spacecraft bus (i.e. in Bay 7, where the power regulation electronics are located). Changes might also be made to turn on or off other loads inside the bus to more effectively heat the coldest propellant lines.

Medina, Enrique↗

NASA NTRS2019

Follow-on studies using the Voyager spacecraft thermal model

The 42-year-old Voyager mission, now named the Voyager Interstellar Mission (VIM) is operating long beyond its design life. In 2012, Voyager 1 crossed the heliopause into interstellar space and Voyager 2 made the same transit in November 2018. Due to declining power output from the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) the Science and Flight Operations teams continue to make difficult choices in terms of managing both the power and thermal margins to preserve critical science observations and maintain the health of the two spacecraft. A previous paper, “Creating a Voyager Thermal Model 39 Years Into the Flight Mission, Along With Model Correlation and Application” described how a thermal model of these 1977 spacecraft was developed and correlated without many design artifacts and with limited temperature telemetry. This paper describes how the thermal model has been used to establish an Allowable Flight Temperature (AFT) limit for hydrazine propellant in the propulsion subsystem to minimize the risk of freezing. Voyager 2 temperatures have already descended to this limit in the vicinity of the Roll thruster propellant lines. The Flight Operations team has investigated several ways of detecting propellant freezing based on analysis and trending of thruster performance telemetry. In addition, the Voyager thermal model is being used to predict the spacecraft response to possible changes in power state. These changes could involve turning off outboard science instruments and/or their heaters to increase power margin and hence power dissipation inside the spacecraft bus (i.e. in Bay 7, where the power regulation electronics are located). Changes might also be made to turn on or off other loads inside the bus to more effectively heat the coldest propellant lines. Many of these changes have been or will be tested first on Voyager 1 which has more power margin and does not have the power matrix commanding issues experienced on Voyager 2. Ultimately this assessment may assist the Voyager project in making decisions on the order in which science instruments are permanently turned off.

Medina, Enrique↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM SciDAC) (Technical Final Report)

Runaway electrons can severely damage the plasma facing components on ITER during a major disruption and pose a major risk for tokamak fusion. It has been recognized that an adequate disruption mitigation system (DMS) is essential for the safe operation of ITER. The United States is responsible for the design and implementation of the disruption mitigation system on ITER, and in July 2016 the Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM) was launched by DOE, in a joint Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) collaboration. SCREAM was a comprehensive theory and simulation SciDAC center that provided physics guidance in the avoidance and mitigation of runaway electrons, and in tandem with domestic and international experiments, helped establish the qualitative and quantitative bases for safe operational scenarios and viable mitigation techniques. The SCREAM center assembled a national team of experts in runaway electron physics, tokamak disruptions, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, and advanced algorithms and computing. The team combined advanced simulation and analysis capability facilitated by direct participation of ASCR SciDAC institutes with theoretical models and code development by FES scientists to focus on the runaway risk for ITER and tokamaks in general. The research scope was focussed on integrated simulations of kinetic runaway electrons, including MHD and fluid models of impurity transport, within a research plan guided by theory. The specific research tasks were (1) establish the fundamental physics of runaway generation, saturation, and dynamical evolution in a tokamak; (2) examine the critical path toward runaway avoidance; and (3) investigate the viability and effectiveness of the leading candidate schemes for runaway mitigation. In all three areas, members of the team carried out scoping studies that established the readiness for rapid and critical advances, especially in the deployment and further development of large-to extreme-scale simulation tools. Our multi-pronged computational approach included (1) relativistic Fokker-Planck solvers with discretization in phase space, (2) self-consistent particle-in-cell techniques, (3) particle-based Monte-Carlo, and (4) MHD-particle hybrid simulations. Cross-check between these different methods provided an additional means for verification and further bolstered the fidelity of our physics prediction. Validation against experimental results brings confidence to the predictive capability for ITER and frequently leads to new ideas for understanding and mitigating the thermal quench driven runaway electron phenomenon.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2011

Ares I-X First Flight Loss of Vehicle Probability Analysis

As part of the Constellation (Cx) Program development effort, several test flights were planned to prove concepts and operational capabilities of the new vehicles being developed. The first test, involving the Eastern Test Range, is the Ares I-X launched in 2009. As part of this test, the risk to the general public was addressed to ensure it is within Air Force requirements. This paper describes the methodology used to develop first flight estimates of overall loss of vehicle (LOV) failure probability, specifically for the Ares I-X. The method described in this report starts with the Air Force s generic failure probability estimate for first flight and adjusts the value based on the complexity of the vehicle as compared to the complexity of a generic vehicle. The results estimate a 1 in 9 probability of failure. The paper also describes traditional PRA methods used in this assessment, which were then combined with the updated first flight risk methodology to generate inputs required by the malfunction turn analysis to support estimate of casualty (Ec) calculations as part of the Final Flight Data Package (FFDP) delivered to the Eastern Range for Final Flight Plan Approval.

Bigler, Mark A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Analysis Process for Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System

Introduction: Micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk analyses for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) have been significantly more rigorous than previously flown missions because of its categorization as a Class V restricted return mission. This means the returned samples present significant concern for biogenic contamination. These analyses seek to determine if a micrometeoroid or orbital debris strike would result in loss of containment assurance and are summarized in the flowchart in Fig. 1. Methodology: The mission is considered in two MMOD phases: a pre-release phase where the EES is protected by a Micrometeoroid Protection System (MMPS) and a post-release phase called “free-flight” where the EES is exposed directly to the MMOD environment. These phases correspond to interplanetary cruise and imminent re-entry, respectively. To inform the MMPS design, a 30-shot high velocity impact testing (HVIT) series on candidate configurations at NASA White Sands Test Facility was completed in the summer of 2022. Sample post-shot images are shown in Fig 2 [1]. These data are used to baseline the MMPS design and to tune the hydrocode simulations. ALE3D, CTH, and SPHC are the hydrocodes that simulate physics of high-speed impacts [2]. Results generated with these populate a penetration depth versus energy space beyond the testable velocity regime of HVIT (~7 km/s). The penetration depth versus energy space data are used to define a critical projectile diameter function called a Ballistic Limit Equation (BLE), where the projectile “criticality” is determined by zone dependent failure criteria defined a-priori [3]. For example, the nose of the heatshield has a failure criterion of 50% TPS penetration, assigned because the landing loads are concentrated on that region and no substructure damage is permitted. The BLEs for each vehicle material zone are input into the BUMPER 3 code, along with the vehicle surface mesh and the corresponding space environment model, to calculate a probability of penetration or number of penetrations. The environment models, MEM3 for MM and ORDEM 3.2 for OD, simulate the meteoroid environment from 0.2 to 2 au based on the Grün flux equation, and the debris environment up to 40,000 km altitude from Earth surface, respectively [4,5]. Presentation Focus: The presentation or poster will present the results to-date focusing on the full risk analysis process flow seen in Fig. 1. Details on the derivation of the failure criteria will be discussed, along with HVIT results and how these influenced the MMPS configuration baseline decision. Further, results of hydrocode simulations will be presented and the tuning to HVIT outputs will be described. Finally, the strategies that direct the BLE formulation will be reviewed, specifically, for the EES elements that are most exposed to the MMOD environment.

mmod↗

NASA NTRS2017

Shape Effect Analysis of Aluminum Projectile Impact on Whipple Shields

The informed design with respect to hypervelocity collisions involving micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) is influential to the success of space missions. For an orbit comparable to that of the International Space Station, velocities for MMOD can range from 1 to 15 km/s, with an average velocity around 10 km/cu s. The high energy released during collisions at these speeds can result in damage to a spacecraft, or worst-case, loss of the spacecraft, thus outlining the importance of methods to predict the likelihood and extent of damage due to an impact. Through experimental testing and numerical simulations, substantial work has been conducted to better understand the effects of hypervelocity impacts (HVI) on spacecraft systems and shields; however, much of the work has been focused on spherical impacting particles. To improve environment models for the analysis of MMOD, a large-scale satellite break-up test was performed at the Arnold Engineering and Development Complex to better understand the varied impactor geometries that could be generated from a large impact. As a part of the post-experiment analysis, an undertaking to characterize the irregular fragments generated is currently being performed by the University of Florida under the management of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC). DebriSat was a representative, modern LEO satellite that was catastrophically broken up in a HVI test. The test chamber was lined with a soft-catch system of foam panels that captured the fragments after impact. Initial predictions put the number of fragments larger than 2mm generated from the HVI at roughly 85,000. The number of fragments thus far extracted from the foam panels has exceeded 100,000, with that number continuously increasing. The shapes of the fragments vary dependent upon the material. Carbon-fiber reinforced polymer pieces, for instance, are abundantly found as thin, flat slivers. The characterization of these fragments with respect to their mass, size, and material composition needs to be summarized in a form that can be used in MMOD analysis. The mechanism that brings these fragment traits into MMOD analysis is through ballistic limit equations (BLE) that have been developed largely for a few types of materials1. As a BLE provides the failure threshold for a shield or spacecraft component based on parameters such as the projectile impact velocity and size, and the target's materials, thickness, and configuration, it is used to design protective shields for spacecraft such as Whipple shields (WS) to an acceptable risk level. The majority of experiments and simulations to test shields and validate BLEs have, heretofore, largely used spheres as the impactor, not properly reflecting the irregular shapes of MMOD. This shortfall has motivated a numerical impact analysis study of HVI involving non-spherical geometries to identify key parameters that environment models should provide.

Carrasquilla, Maria J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Artemis IV

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D Hilmers↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for A Long Duration Artemis Mission

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in-mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. DISCUSSION: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for an extended duration Artemis mission of approximately 9 months, with phases including outbound transit, 3 months on the Lunar Gateway space station, 3 months on the Lunar surface with EVAs, 3 months on Gateway (simulating the return phase of a Mars mission), and transit back to Earth. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk.

W Thompson↗

NASA NTRS2022

Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for a Late Artemis Mission

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in-mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. DISCUSSION: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for an extended duration Artemis mission of approximately 9 months, with phases including outbound transit, 3 months on the Lunar Gateway space station, 3 months on the Lunar surface with EVAs, 3 months on Gateway (simulating the return phase of a Mars mission), and transit back to Earth. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care –RTDC), and an estimate of crew time list due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost –TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk.

A Anderson↗

NASA NTRS2024

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Late Artemis Missions

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D. Hilmers↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACT-ing Exploration Spaceflight Risk Prediction and Medical System Design

Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in-mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 120 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. IMPACT provides evidence-based, mission-specific PRA estimates of in-flight medical risk and an initial list of clinical capabilities and medical resources/hardware to be considered. In addition, sophisticated trade space capabilities estimate how human system risk varies with changes to the mission architecture or medical capability set (e.g., if the system mass constraint decreases by 10% or ultrasound is removed). This panel will provide an overview of IMPACT, its intended use cases, and future development plans. The panel will be the first public presentation of IMPACT results, including medical risk estimates for extended duration Artemis missions, the medical conditions most influencing medical risk metrics, and the clinical capabilities that have the largest effect on medical risk.

Ben Easter↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global droughts connected by linkages between drought hubs

Abstract Quantifying the spatial and interconnected structure of regional to continental scale droughts is one of the unsolved global hydrology problems, which is important for understanding the looming risk of mega-scale droughts and the resulting water and food scarcity and their cascading impact on the worldwide economy. Using a Complex Network analysis, this study explores the topological characteristics of global drought events based on the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. Event Synchronization is used to measure the strength of association between the onset of droughts at different spatial locations within the time lag of 1-3 months. The network coefficients derived from the synchronization network indicate a highly heterogeneous connectivity structure underlying global drought events. Drought hotspot regions such as Southern Europe, Northeast Brazil, Australia, and Northwest USA behave as drought hubs that synchronize regionally and with other hubs at inter-continental or even inter-hemispheric scale. This observed affinity among drought hubs is equivalent to the ‘rich-club phenomenon’ in Network Theory, where ‘rich’ nodes (here, drought hubs) are tightly interconnected to form a club, implicating the possibility of simultaneous large-scale droughts over multiple continents.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Artificial intelligence-empowered cellular morphometric risk score improves prognostic stratification of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract Background Risk stratification of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is essential for managing patients. Objectives To determine if artificial intelligence and machine learning might help to stratify patients with cSCC by risk using more than solely clinical and histopathological factors. Methods We retrieved a retrospective cohort of 104 patients whose cSCCs had been excised with clear margins. Clinical and histopathological risk factors were evaluated. Haematoxylin and eosin-stained slides were scanned and analysed by an algorithm based on the stacked predictive sparse decomposition technique. Cellular morphometric biomarkers (CMBs) were identified via machine learning and used to derive a cellular morphometric risk score (CMRS) that classified cSCCs into clusters of differential prognoses. Concordance analysis, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy were calculated and compared with results obtained with the Brigham and Women’s Hospital (BWH) staging system. The performance of the combination of the BWH staging system and the CMBs was also analysed. Results There were no differences among the CMRS groups in terms of clinical and histopathological risk factors and T-stage assignment, but there were significant differences in prognosis. Combining the CMRS with BWH staging systems increased distinctiveness and improved prognostic performance. C-indices were 0.91 local recurrence and 0.91 for nodal metastasis when combining the two approaches. The NPV was 94.41% and 96.00%, the PPV was 36.36% and 41.67%, and accuracy reached 86.75% and 89.16%, respectively, with the combined approach. Conclusions CMRS is helpful for cSCC risk stratification beyond classic clinical and histopathological risk features. Combining the information from the CMRS and the BWH staging system offers outstanding prognostic performance for patients with high-risk cSCC.

Pérez-Baena, Manuel J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Digital Twin for Hydrogen Dispersion and Safety Assessment in an Electrolyzer Based Hydrogen Production Facility

Digital twin models are virtual representations of physical systems that use real-time data to simulate and optimize performance. This study presents the development and initial implementation of a digital twin (DT) for the electrolyzer-based hydrogen production facility at NREL's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), focused on enhancing safety and optimizing sensor placement through physics-based simulations and metadata integration. The DT incorporates detailed facility-specific information, including component layout, leak locations, and controlled release parameters, to model hydrogen dispersion under varying environmental conditions. Using steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations informed by real meteorological data, such as wind speed, direction, and vertical wind profiles, the DT enables visualization of hydrogen plume behavior and spatial concentration distributions. Comparative analysis between high and low wind speed scenarios illustrates the significant influence of wind dynamics on plume shape and extent, with horizontal momentum dominating dispersion at higher speeds, while buoyancy effects become more prominent under low wind conditions. These simulations generate a rich dataset embedded within the DT, allowing users to assess potential leak outcomes and identify optimal sensor locations based on concentration thresholds. The model supports scenario-based analysis to guide safety strategies and equipment deployment for open-area hydrogen infrastructure. The digital twin thus serves as a dynamic platform for virtual prototyping, providing predictive insight into hydrogen behavior and enhancing risk-informed decision-making. This initial phase establishes a validated foundation for future integration of transient, uncontrolled leak scenarios and real-time sensor feedback, positioning the DT as a critical tool for safety design, operational planning, and adaptive monitoring in hydrogen systems. Overall, the approach demonstrates the value of combining environmental data with digital simulations to inform safer and more efficient deployment of hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2002

NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure

An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.

Patel, Bhogilal M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Human-Rated Space Vehicle Backup Flight Systems

Human rated space vehicles have historically employed a Backup Flight System (BFS) for the main purpose of mitigating the loss of the primary avionics control system. Throughout these projects, however, the underlying philosophy and technical implementation vary greatly. This paper attempts to coalesce each of the past space vehicle program's BFS design and implementation methodologies with the accompanying underlining philosophical arguments that drove each program to such decisions. The focus will be aimed at Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, and Space Shuttle However, the ideologies and implementation of several commercial and military aircraft are incorporated as well to complete the full breadth view of BFS development across the varying industries. In particular to the non-space based vehicles is the notion of deciding not to utilize a BFS. A diverse analysis of BFS to primary system benefits in terms of reliability against all aspects of project development are reviewed and traded. The risk of engaging the BFS during critical stages of flight (e.g. ascent and entry), the level of capability of the BFS (subset capability of main system vs. equivalent system), and the notion of dissimilar hardware and software design are all discussed. Finally, considerations for employing a BFS on future human-rated space missions are reviewed in light of modern avionics architectures and mission scenarios implicit in exploration beyond low Earth orbit.

Davis, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Constellation Program (CxP) Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Project Integrated Landing System

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Chief Engineer requested a risk comparison of the Integrated Landing System design developed by NASA and the design developed by Contractor- referred to as the LM 604 baseline. Based on the results of this risk comparison, the CEV Chief engineer requested that the NESC evaluate identified risks and develop strategies for their reduction or mitigation. The assessment progressed in two phases. A brief Phase I analysis was performed by the Water versus Land-Landing Team to compare the CEV Integrated Landing System proposed by the Contractor against the NASA TS-LRS001 baseline with respect to risk. A phase II effort examined the areas of critical importance to the overall landing risk, evaluating risk to the crew and to the CEV Crew Module (CM) during a nominal land-landing. The findings of the assessment are contained in this report.

Baker, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Swingbed Amine Carbon Dioxide Removal Flight Experiment - Feasibility Study and Concept Development for Cost-Effective Exploration Technology Maturation on The International Space Station

The completion of International Space Station Assembly and transition to a full six person crew has created the opportunity to create and implement flight experiments that will drive down the ultimate risks and cost for human space exploration by maturing exploration technologies in realistic space environments that are impossible or incredibly costly to duplicate in terrestrial laboratories. An early opportunity for such a technology maturation experiment was recognized in the amine swingbed technology baselined for carbon dioxide and humidity control on the Orion spacecraft and Constellation Spacesuit System. An experiment concept using an existing high fidelity laboratory swing bed prototype has been evaluated in a feasibility and concept definition study leading to the conclusion that the envisioned flight experiment can be both feasible and of significant value for NASA s space exploration technology development efforts. Based on the results of that study NASA has proceeded with detailed design and implementation for the flight experiment. The study effort included the evaluation of technology risks, the extent to which ISS provided unique opportunities to understand them, and the implications of the resulting targeted risks for the experiment design and operational parameters. Based on those objectives and characteristics, ISS safety and integration requirements were examined, experiment concepts developed to address them and their feasibility assessed. This paper will describe the analysis effort and conclusions and present the resulting flight experiment concept. The flight experiment, implemented by NASA and launched in two packages in January and August 2011, integrates the swing bed with supporting elements including electrical power and controls, sensors, cooling, heating, fans, air- and water-conserving functionality, and mechanical packaging structure. It is now on board the ISS awaiting installation and activation.

Hodgson, Edward↗