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NASA NTRS1993

Multivariate statistical analysis software technologies for astrophysical research involving large data bases

The existing and forthcoming data bases from NASA missions contain an abundance of information whose complexity cannot be efficiently tapped with simple statistical techniques. Powerful multivariate statistical methods already exist which can be used to harness much of the richness of these data. Automatic classification techniques have been developed to solve the problem of identifying known types of objects in multiparameter data sets, in addition to leading to the discovery of new physical phenomena and classes of objects. We propose an exploratory study and integration of promising techniques in the development of a general and modular classification/analysis system for very large data bases, which would enhance and optimize data management and the use of human research resource.

Djorgovski, George↗
NASA NTRS1994

A statistical equilibrium analysis of interstellar CO toward zeta Ophiuchi as recorded by the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph

High-resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio echelle observations made by the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS), aboard the Hubble Space Telescope, of molecular (12)C(16)O and (13)C(16)O in the absorbing gas toward zeta Oph are reported. A statistical equilibrium model, incorporating a different way of dealing with the radiation field in the interstellar clouds, is presented. Based upon previous observations, two velocity components of the gas at V(sub LSR) = - 0.79 and 0.39 km/s, corresponding to solar velocity = -14.6 and -13.4 km/s, together with three different sets of velocity dispersions are adopted in our models. The ratios of the computed emergent intensities (I(sub em)) resulting from the emission lines in the lowest transitions (J = 1 goes to 0, 2 goes to 1, 3 goes to 2) of ground state of CO are presented. The ratios for the two velocity components, (I(sub em)(1 goes to 0)(sub 1))/(I(sub em)(1 goes to 0)(sub 2)), and (I(sub em)(2 goes to 1)(sub 1))/I(sub em)(1 goes to 0)(sub 1)) are comparable to the observed corrected antenna temperature ratios. From the solutions to the statistical equilibrium equations including the six lowest rotational transitions of CO and from multiple Voigt profile fits, the observed (12)CO and (13)CO UV abroption features are successfully reproduced. Profile fitting and double cloud curve-of-growth analysis using the GHRS and Copernicus data indicate that the abundance of CO is (1.8 +/- 0.2) x 10(exp 15)/sq cm. The most recently measured wavelength of the (6 goes to 0) (13)CO band by Haridass & Huber (R(0) = 1370.616 A) shows that the tentative (13)CO features in the GHRS data are unquestionably identified. If there is no blending from any other unknown interstellar species, the isotope ratio of (12)CO/(13)CO is approximately 82 +/- 25. This result is close to the terrestrial value of 90 and implies that the CO is not substantially fractionated, and (12)C(16)O experiences little preferential self-shielding through the selective isotopic photodissociation process. This conclusion differs strongly with that of Sheffer et al. Other implications of the results are discussed.

Lyu, Cheng-Hsuan↗
NASA NTRS1994

Solar granulation and statistical crystallography: A modeling approach using size-shape relations

The irregular polygonal pattern of solar granulation is analyzed for size-shape relations using statistical crystallography. In contrast to previous work which has assumed perfectly hexagonal patterns for granulation, more realistic accounting of cell (granule) shapes reveals a broader basis for quantitative analysis. Several features emerge as noteworthy: (1) a linear correlation between number of cell-sides and neighboring shapes (called Aboav-Weaire's law); (2) a linear correlation between both average cell area and perimeter and the number of cell-sides (called Lewis's law and a perimeter law, respectively) and (3) a linear correlation between cell area and squared perimeter (called convolution index). This statistical picture of granulation is consistent with a finding of no correlation in cell shapes beyond nearest neighbors. A comparative calculation between existing model predictions taken from luminosity data and the present analysis shows substantial agreements for cell-size distributions. A model for understanding grain lifetimes is proposed which links convective times to cell shape using crystallographic results.

Noever, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Statistics and topology of the COBE differential microwave radiometer first-year sky maps

We use statistical and topological quantities to test the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) first-year sky maps against the hypothesis that the observed temperature fluctuations reflect Gaussian initial density perturbations with random phases. Recent papers discuss specific quantities as discriminators between Gaussian and non-Gaussian behavior, but the treatment of instrumental noise on the data is largely ignored. The presence of noise in the data biases many statistical quantities in a manner dependent on both the noise properties and the unknown cosmic microwave background temperature field. Appropriate weighting schemes can minimize this effect, but it cannot be completely eliminated. Analytic expressions are presented for these biases, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the best strategy for determining cosmologically interesting information from noisy data. The genus is a robust discriminator that can be used to estimate the power-law quadrupole-normalized amplitude, Q(sub rms-PS), independently of the two-point correlation function. The genus of the DMR data is consistent with Gaussian initial fluctuations with Q(sub rms-PS) = (15.7 +/- 2.2) - (6.6 +/- 0.3)(n - 1) micro-K, where n is the power-law index. Fitting the rms temperature variations at various smoothing angles gives Q(sub rms-PS) = 13.2 +/- 2.5 micro-K and n = 1.7(sup (+0.3) sub (-0.6)). While consistent with Gaussian fluctuations, the first year data are only sufficient to rule out strongly non-Gaussian distributions of fluctuations.

Smoot, G. F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Gaussian statistics of the cosmic microwave background: Correlation of temperature extrema in the COBE DMR two-year sky maps

We use the two-point correlation function of the extrema points (peaks and valleys) in the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometers (DMR) 2 year sky maps as a test for non-Gaussian temperature distribution in the cosmic microwave background anisotropy. A maximum-likelihood analysis compares the DMR data to n = 1 toy models whose random-phase spherical harmonic components a(sub lm) are drawn from either Gaussian, chi-square, or log-normal parent populations. The likelihood of the 53 GHz (A+B)/2 data is greatest for the exact Gaussian model. There is less than 10% chance that the non-Gaussian models tested describe the DMR data, limited primarily by type II errors in the statistical inference. The extrema correlation function is a stronger test for this class of non-Gaussian models than topological statistics such as the genus.

Kogut, A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Eclipse timings of the low-mass X-ray binary EXO 0748-676: Statistical arguments against orbital period changes

EXO 0748-676, an eclipsing low-mass X-ray binary, is one of only about four or five low-mass X-ray binaries for which orbital period evolution has been reported. We observed a single eclipse egress with ROSAT . The time of this egress is consistent with the apparent increase in P(sub orb) previously reported on the basis of EXOSAT and Ginga observations. Standard analysis, in which O-C (observed minus calculated) timing residuals are examined for deviations from a constant period, implicitly assume that the only uncertainty in each residual is measurement error and that these errors are independent. We argue that the variable eclipse durations and profiles observed in EXO 0748-676 imply that there is an additional source of uncertainty in timing measurements, that this uncertainty is intrinsic to the binary system, and that it is correlated from observation to observation with a variance which increases as a function of the number of binary cycles between observations. This intrinsic variability gives rise to spurious trends in O-C residuals which are misinterpreted as changes in the orbital period. We describe several statistics tests which can be used to test for the presence of intrinsic variability. We apply those statistical tests which are suitable to the EXO 0748-676 observations. The apparent changes in the orbital period of EXO 0748-676 can be completely accounted for by intrinsic variability with an rms variability of approximately 0.35 s per orbital cycle. The variability appears to be correlated from cycle-to-cycle on timescales of less than 1 yr. We suggest that the intrinsic variability is related to slow changes in either the source's X-ray luminosity or the structure of the companion star's atmosphere. We note that several other X-ray binaries and cataclysmic variables have previously reported orbital period changes which may also be due to intrinsic variability rather than orbital period evolution.

Hertz, Paul↗
NASA NTRS1995

Improved Noise-Power Estimators Based On Order Statistics

Technique based on order statistics enables design of improved noise-power estimators. In original intended application, noise-power estimators part of microwave-signal-processing system of Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence project. Involves limiting dynamic range of value to be estimated; making it possible to achieve performance of order-statistical estimator with simple algorithms and equipment and with only one pass over input data. Technique also applicable to other signal-detection systems and to image-detection systems required to exhibit constant false-alarm rates.

Zimmerman, George A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Earth-space links and fade-duration statistics

In recent years, fade-duration statistics have been the subject of several experimental investigations. A good knowledge of the fade-duration distribution is important for the assessment of a satellite communication system's channel dynamics: What is a typical link outage duration? How often do link outages exceeding a given duration occur? Unfortunately there is yet no model that can universally answer the above questions. The available field measurements mainly come from temperate climatic zones and only from a few sites. Furthermore, the available statistics are also limited in the choice of frequency and path elevation angle. Yet, much can be learned from the available information. For example, we now know that the fade-duration distribution is approximately lognormal. Under certain conditions, we can even determine the median and other percentiles of the distribution. This paper reviews the available data obtained by several experimenters in different parts of the world. Areas of emphasis are mobile and fixed satellite links. Fades in mobile links are due to roadside-tree shadowing, whereas fades in fixed links are due to rain attenuation.

Davarian, Faramaz↗
NASA NTRS1996

Using Statistical Penalties In The Tsai-Wu Failure Criterion

Improved methods of applying statistical penalties when using Tsai-Wu failure criterion lead to more accurate predictions of failures of composite-material structural components under stress, and provide better safety factors for designing such components. Intended to ensure proper use of statistical penalties with respect to failure hypersurface.

Richardson, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Earth-Space Links and Fade-Duration Statistics

In recent years, fade-duration statistics have been the subject of several experimental investigations. A good knowledge of the fade-duration distribution is important for the assessment of a satellite communication system's channel dynamics: What is a typical link outage duration? How often do link outages exceeding a given duration occur? Unfortunately there is yet no model that can universally answer the above questions. The available field measurements mainly come from temperate climatic zones and only from a few sites. Furthermore, the available statistics are also limited in the choice of frequency and path elevation angle. Yet, much can be learned from the available information. For example, we now know that the fade-duration distribution is approximately lognormal. Under certain conditions, we can even determine the median and other percentiles of the distribution. This paper reviews the available data obtained by several experimenters in different parts of the world. Areas of emphasis are mobile and fixed satellite links. Fades in mobile links are due to roadside-tree shadowing, whereas fades in fixed links are due to rain attenuation.

Davarian, Faramaz↗
NASA NTRS1996

Study of Analytic Statistical Model for Decay of Light and Medium Mass Nuclei in Nuclear Fragmentation

The angular momentum independent statistical decay model is often applied using a Monte-Carlo simulation to describe the decay of prefragment nuclei in heavy ion reactions. This paper presents an analytical approach to the decay problem of nuclei with mass number less than 60, which is important for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) studies. This decay problem of nuclei with mass number less than 60 incorporates well-known levels of the lightest nuclei (A less than 11) to improve convergence and accuracy. A sensitivity study of the model level density function is used to determine the impact on mass and charge distributions in nuclear fragmentation. This angular momentum independent statistical decay model also describes the momentum and energy distribution of emitted particles (n, p, d, t, h, and a) from a prefragment nucleus.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Statistical Process Control for KSC Processing

The 1996 Summer Faculty Fellowship Program and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) served as the basis for a research effort into statistical process control for KSC processing. The effort entailed several tasks and goals. The first was to develop a customized statistical process control (SPC) course for the Safety and Mission Assurance Trends Analysis Group. The actual teaching of this course took place over several weeks. In addition, an Internet version of the same course complete with animation and video excerpts from the course when it was taught at KSC was developed. The application of SPC to shuttle processing took up the rest of the summer research project. This effort entailed the evaluation of SPC use at KSC, both present and potential, due to the change in roles for NASA and the Single Flight Operations Contractor (SFOC). Individual consulting on SPC use was accomplished as well as an evaluation of SPC software for KSC use in the future. A final accomplishment of the orientation of the author to NASA changes, terminology, data format, and new NASA task definitions will allow future consultation when the needs arise.

Ford, Roger G.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Solar energetic particle events: Statistical modelling and prediction

Solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) can have a significant effect on the design and operation of earth orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft. In relation to this, the calculation of proton fluences and fluxes are considered, describing the current state of the art in statistical modeling. A statistical model that can be used for the estimation of integrated proton fluences for different mission durations of greater than one year is reviewed. The gaps in the modeling capabilities of the SEPE environment, such as a proton flux model, alpha particle and heavy ion models and solar cycle variations are described together with the prospects for the prediction of events using neural networks.

Gabriel, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

LOAD CONTROL↗
NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.

REAL TIME↗
NASA NTRS1997

Statistical Evaluation of Molecular Contamination During Spacecraft Thermal Vacuum Test

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the statistical molecular contamination data with a goal to improve spacecraft contamination control. The statistical data was generated in typical thermal vacuum tests at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The magnitude of material outgassing was measured using a Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCM) device during the test. A solvent rinse sample was taken at the conclusion of the each test. Then detailed qualitative and quantitative measurements were obtained through chemical analyses. All data used in this study encompassed numerous spacecraft tests in recent years.

Chen, Philip↗
NASA NTRS1998

Statistical Evaluation of Molecular Contamination During Spacecraft Thermal Vacuum Test

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the statistical molecular contamination data with a goal to improve spacecraft contamination control. The statistical data was generated in typical thermal vacuum tests at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The magnitude of material outgassing was measured using a Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCM) device during the test. A solvent rinse sample was taken at the conclusion of each test. Then detailed qualitative and quantitative measurements were obtained through chemical analyses. All data used in this study encompassed numerous spacecraft tests in recent years.

Chen, Philip↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Evaluation of Molecular Contamination During Spacecraft Thermal Vacuum Test

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the statistical molecular contamination data with a goal to improve spacecraft contamination control. The statistical data was generated in typical thermal vacuum tests at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The magnitude of material outgassing was measured using a Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCNO device during the test. A solvent rinse sample was taken at the conclusion of each test. Then detailed qualitative and quantitative measurements were obtained through chemical analyses. All data used in this study encompassed numerous spacecraft tests in recent years.

Chen, Philip↗