Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Scenario Development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27

Ares I-X Malfunction Turn Range Safety Analysis

Ares I-X was the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares I rocket which was developed by NASA (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) component of the Constellation Program). The Ares I-X flight test vehicle achieved a successful flight test on October 28, 2009, from Pad LC-39B at Kennedy Space Center, Florida (KSC). As part of the flight plan approval for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could have caused the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path. The effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version II (POST2) simulation tool. The Ares I-X simulation analysis provided output files containing vehicle trajectory state information. These were used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at KSC, and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer in the event of a flight test anomaly of the vehicle. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study.

Beaty, J. R.↗

Enhancing the EVI-X National Framework to Address Emerging Questions on Charging Infrastructure Deployment

As national investments in EV charging infrastructure accelerate, this project advances the state-of-the-art in infrastructure analysis to better inform deployment strategies. It enhances NLR's EVI-X Suite, a set of tools supporting national network planning, local site design, and financial evaluation. These capabilities will position VTO to provide timely analysis to the DOT/DOE Joint Office, and to guide the strategic buildout of the national charging network. EVI-X development is closely coordinated with other VTO-funded efforts to ensure consistent, integrated use of key inputs and outputs, including EV adoption scenarios from TEMPO and infrastructure designs developed through EVs@Scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

Beaty, James R.↗

Constraint-Based Off-Nominal Behavior Modeling for Europa Clipper

The risk analysis for the Europa Clipper mission evaluates the probability of mission failure based on the failure rates of individual components and dependencies among them. The probabilities are calculated by integrating over the intervals of time within which a fault occurs, accounting for an infinite number of cases. The response of the spacecraft to different faults can result in different schedules of activities, changing the intervals of integration. Europa currently uses models of spacecraft systems and components to simulate individual flight scenarios. The goal is to develop a framework for integrating, automating, and improving this modeling process. We describe an approach to generating the schedules for the different fault cases and determining the intervals for faults. It is not enough to just simulate individual cases because we are working with continuous variables that generate an infinite number of possible futures. Instead, we determine time windows within which certain faults can occur and use these time windows as bounds for integration. We found that determining these time windows is a constraint optimization problem. In order to represent these problems, we employ a language based on ontologies of behavior and scenarios. The language enables us to specify constraints in a simple, declarative syntax. A constraint-based analysis engine uses the declarative specification to identify bounds on system parameters and fill in details of behavior. For example, we created a detailed model of power generation, power use, and the corresponding effects on the battery in order to determine when an undervoltage fault can occur. An undervoltage during a trajectory correction maneuver requires that thrusting be interrupted for just enough time to recharge the battery such that the maneuver can be completed within battery limits. This behavior is generated based on the model to minimize the interruption time. For certain scenarios the constraint optimization problems were simple enough to be solved by hand, but the framework made the process substantially faster. It also produced solutions to other problems that we could not solve by hand or with existing tools and allowed us to generate and run many scenarios at once. The scenario language and engine greatly simplified the process of identifying time bounds and separating cases.

Everline, Chester J.↗

A Cost Comparison of Alternative Approaches to Distance Education in Developing Countries

This paper presents a cost comparison of three approaches to two-way interactive distance learning systems for developing countries. Included are costs for distance learning hardware, terrestrial and satellite communication links, and designing instruction for two-way interactive courses. As part of this project, FSEC is developing a 30-hour course in photovoltaic system design that will be used in a variety of experiments using the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS). A primary goal of the project is to develop an instructional design and delivery model that can be used for other education and training programs. Over two-thirds of the world photovoltaics market is in developing countries. One of the objectives of this NASA-sponsored project was to develop new and better energy education programs that take advantage of advances in telecommunications and computer technology. The combination of desktop video systems and the sharing of computer applications software is of special interest. Research is being performed to evaluate the effectiveness of some of these technologies as part of this project. The design of the distance learning origination and receive sites discussed in this paper were influenced by the educational community's growing interest in distance education. The following approach was used to develop comparative costs for delivering interactive distance education to developing countries: (1) Representative target locations for receive sites were chosen. The originating site was assumed to be Cocoa, Florida, where FSEC is located; (2) A range of course development costs were determined; (3) The cost of equipment for three alternative two-way interactive distance learning system configurations was determined or estimated. The types of system configurations ranged from a PC-based system that allows instructors to originate instruction from their office using desktop video and shared application software, to a high cost system that uses a electronic classroom; (4) A range of costs for both satellite and terrestrial communications was investigated; (5) The costs of equipment and operation of the alternative configurations for the origination and receive sites were determined; (6) A range of costs for several alternative delivery scenarios (i.e., a mix of live-interactive; asynchronous interactive;use of videotapes) was determined; and (7) A preferred delivery scenario, including cost estimate, was developed.

Ventre, Gerard G.↗

Component-Level Electronic-Assembly Repair (CLEAR) Operational Concept

This Component-Level Electronic-Assembly Repair (CLEAR) Operational Concept document was developed as a first step in developing the Component-Level Electronic-Assembly Repair (CLEAR) System Architecture (NASA/TM-2011-216956). The CLEAR operational concept defines how the system will be used by the Constellation Program and what needs it meets. The document creates scenarios for major elements of the CLEAR architecture. These scenarios are generic enough to apply to near-Earth, Moon, and Mars missions. The CLEAR operational concept involves basic assumptions about the overall program architecture and interactions with the CLEAR system architecture. The assumptions include spacecraft and operational constraints for near-Earth orbit, Moon, and Mars missions. This document addresses an incremental development strategy where capabilities evolve over time, but it is structured to prevent obsolescence. The approach minimizes flight hardware by exploiting Internet-like telecommunications that enables CLEAR capabilities to remain on Earth and to be uplinked as needed. To minimize crew time and operational cost, CLEAR exploits offline development and validation to support online teleoperations. Operational concept scenarios are developed for diagnostics, repair, and functional test operations. Many of the supporting functions defined in these operational scenarios are further defined as technologies in NASA/TM-2011-216956.

Oeftering, Richard C.↗

Joint Composable Object Model and LVC Methodology

Within the Department of Defense, multiple architectures are created to serve and fulfill one or several specific service or mission related LVC training goals. Multiple Object Models exist across and within those architectures and it is there that those disparate object models are a major source of interoperability problems when developing and constructing the training scenarios. The two most commonly used architectures are; HLA and TENA, with DIS and CTIA following close behind in terms of the number of users. Although these multiple architectures can share and exchange data the underlying meta-models for runtime data exchange are quite different, requiring gateways/translators to bridge between the different object model representations; while the Department of Defense's use of gateways are generally effective in performing these functions, as the LVC environment increases so too does the cost and complexity of these gateways. Coupled with the wide range of different object models across the various user communities we increase the propensity for run time errors, increased programmer stop gap measures during coordinated exercises, or failure of the system as a whole due to unknown or unforeseen incompatibilities. The Joint Composable Object Model (JCOM) project was established under an M&S Steering Committee (MSSC)-sponsored effort with oversight and control placed under the Joint Forces Command J7 Advanced Concepts Program Directorate. The purpose of this paper is to address the initial and the current progress that has been made in the following areas; the Conceptual Model Development Format, the Common Object Model, the Architecture Neutral Data Exchange Model (ANDEM), and the association methodology to allow the re-use of multiple architecture object models and the development of the prototype persistent reusable library.

Rheinsmith, Richard↗

Space and Ground Trades for Human Exploration and Wearable Computing

Human exploration of the Moon and Mars will present unique trade study challenges as ground system elements shift to planetary bodies and perhaps eventually to the bodies of human explorers in the form of wearable computing technologies. This presentation will highlight some of the key space and ground trade issues that will face the Exploration Initiative as NASA begins designing systems for the sustained human exploration of the Moon and Mars, with an emphasis on wearable computing. We will present some preliminary test results and scenarios that demonstrate how wearable computing might affect the trade space noted below. We will first present some background on wearable computing and its utility to NASA's Exploration Initiative. Next, we will discuss three broad architectural themes, some key ground and space trade issues within those themes and how they relate to wearable computing. Lastly, we will present some preliminary test results and suggest guidance for proceeding in the assessment and creation of a value-added role for wearable computing in the Exploration Initiative. The three broad ground-space architectural trade themes we will discuss are: 1. Functional Shift and Distribution: To what extent, if any, should traditional ground system functionality be shifted to, and distributed among, the Earth, Moon/Mars, and the human. explorer? 2. Situational Awareness and Autonomy: How much situational awareness (e.g. environmental conditions, biometrics, etc.) and autonomy is required and desired, and where should these capabilities reside? 3. Functional Redundancy: What functions (e.g. command, control, analysis) should exist simultaneously on Earth, the Moon/Mars, and the human explorer? These three themes can serve as the axes of a three-dimensional trade space, within which architectural solutions reside. We will show how wearable computers can fit into this trade space and what the possible implications could be for the rest of the ground and space architecture(s). We intend this to be an example of explorer-centric thinking in a fully integrated explorer paradigm, where integrated explorer refers to a human explorer having instant access to all relevant data, knowledge of the environment, science models, health and safety-related events, and other tools and information via wearable computing technologies. The trade study approach will include involvement from the relevant stakeholders (Constellation Systems, CCCI, EVA Project Office, Astronaut office, Mission Operations, Space Life Sciences, etc.) to develop operations concepts (and/or operations scenarios) from which a basic high-level set of requirements could be extracted. This set of requirements could serve as a foundation (along with stakeholder buy-in) that would help define the trade space and assist in identifying candidate technologies for further study and evolution to higher-level technology readiness levels.

Lupisella, Mark↗

The NREL Sensor Laboratory Detection of Hydrogen Emissions

The development of a functional hydrogen detection system is a multifaceted process that integrates hardware, deployments strategies, and analytics which can be supported by the NREL Sensor Laboratory: 1. Support of the design, validation and optimization of sensing prototypes; 2. Guide optimized sensing element development, including control electronics; 3. Laboratory testing to validate/optimize metrological performance (measurement range, detection limit, etc.); 4. Provide test sites for field deployments representative of real-world scenarios with controlled hydrogen releases; 5. Develop sensor placement and operation guidance; 6. Provide guidance on electronics to accommodate facility integration; 7. Electrical safety designs to allow for operation within restricted zones; 8. Integration into facility monitoring and control systems; 9. Guide incorporation of cyber security elements to protect facilities from malicious attacks; 10. Modeling and application of advanced analytics to detect and quantify emissions; 11. Higher Order dispersion models to guide sensor placement for reliable detection; 12. Advanced analytics for improved metrological performances, and to inform inverse modeling; 13. Market support and commercialization (national and international markets); 14. Commercial deployments in H2@SCALE markets (e.g., HUBs and other large-scale hydrogen markets); and 15. Leverage off international collaborations/partnerships (e.g., NREL is on the advisory board for the European initiative "pre-Normative Research on Hydrogen Releases Assessment"-NHyRA).

08 HYDROGEN↗

Communications payload concepts for geostationary facilities

Summarized and compared are the major results of two NASA sponsored studies that defined potential communication payload concepts to meet the satellite traffic forecast for the turn of the century for the continental US and Region 2 of the International Telecommunications Union. The studies were performed by the Ford Aerospace and Communications Corporation and RCA Astro-Electronics (now GE-RCA Astro-Space Division). Future scenarios of aggregations of communications services are presented. Payload concepts are developed and defined in detail for nine of the scenarios. Payload costs and critical technologies per payload are also presented. Finally the payload concepts are compared and the findings of the reports are discussed.

Poley, William A.↗

Wellbore Stability and Mud Loss Management in Geothermal Drilling: Optimizing Mud Weight to Mitigate Tensile Wellbore Fracturing at The Geysers, California

As part of a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office-funded initiative, Geysers Power Company, LLC, a subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, has been working to enhance drilling performance at the world’s largest geothermal field, The Geysers, in northern California. In a recent drilling operation of the GDC-36 well, excessive mud losses were encountered, initially addressed through repeated but largely ineffective cement plugging. Ultimately, the most effective strategy was to drill blind through the loss zones, made feasible by the high rate of penetration (ROP) achieved with PDC bits, allowing significant progress before the mud tanks were depleted and water-sensitive argillic formation layers could collapse. In response to these challenges, the project team explored alternative methods to minimize downtime and risks associated with cement plugging and continuous mud loss and to contemplate the driving mechanisms for the losses. Wellbore imaging using Formation MicroImager (FMI) and Ultrasonic Borehole Imager (UBI) tools revealed longitudinal tensile fractures, which were attributed to mud weights exceeding the minimum circumferential stress resulting from the native stress field and formation pressure. This study examines the mud losses encountered and leverages wellbore imaging data to understand the mechanisms behind mud induced tensile fracturing in specific rock facies. Understanding fracture behavior across different lithologies is crucial, as fractures within the reservoir can enhance steam migration throughout the system. The reservoir at The Geysers lies within the Mesozoic Franciscan Assemblage, a tectonic mélange formed by subduction. It consists of metamorphosed turbidite sandstone (greywacke) and mudstone (argillite), oceanic upper crust (including greenstone and chert), and serpentinized ultramafic rocks - each exhibiting distinct geomechanical fracturing properties. The structural fabric of the Franciscan Assemblage was shaped by low-angle Mesozoic thrust faulting and later overprinted by sub-vertical strike-slip structures related to the Pacific-North American plate boundary. A wellbore stability model was developed using core measurements and logs to simulate fracturing scenarios during drilling under varying stress conditions. These simulations guided the development of an optimized mud weight management strategy that should enable adaptive adjustments during drilling, reducing the likelihood of tensile fracturing and mud losses, ultimately improving operational efficiency.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

MEGASTAR: The Meaning of Energy Growth: An Assessment of Systems, Technologies, and Requirements

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach that includes the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption for the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario. The total requirements and the energy subsystems for each scenario are assessed for their primary impacts in the areas of society, the environment, technology and the economy.

Source record↗

MEGASTAR: The meaning of growth. An assessment of systems, technologies, and requirements

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach methodology including the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption from the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario.

Source record↗

Modeling Temporal Processes in Early Spacecraft Design: Application of Discrete-Event Simulations for Darpa's F6 Program

While the ability to model the state of a space system over time is essential during spacecraft operations, the use of time-based simulations remains rare in preliminary design. The absence of the time dimension in most traditional early design tools can however become a hurdle when designing complex systems whose development and operations can be disrupted by various events, such as delays or failures. As the value delivered by a space system is highly affected by such events, exploring the trade space for designs that yield the maximum value calls for the explicit modeling of time.This paper discusses the use of discrete-event models to simulate spacecraft development schedule as well as operational scenarios and on-orbit resources in the presence of uncertainty. It illustrates how such simulations can be utilized to support trade studies, through the example of a tool developed for DARPA's F6 program to assist the design of "fractionated spacecraft".

trade space exploration↗

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗

A full-scope, high-fidelity simulator-based hardware-in-the-loop testbed for comprehensive nuclear power plant cybersecurity research

Nuclear power plant (NPP) cybersecurity research often relies on hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbeds that integrate real hardware components into simulated environments. These testbeds allow researchers to identify vulnerabilities, evaluate attack impacts, and test security measures in a controlled setting. Furthermore, previous HIL testbeds lacked fidelity to accurately represent real nuclear systems, limiting the scope of cybersecurity analysis. This study presents the creation of a HIL testbed, devised upon a full-scope, high-fidelity NPP simulator, to facilitate realistic and comprehensive cybersecurity research. To demonstrate its capabilities, the control logic for the steam generator water level was migrated from the simulator to an external programmable logic controller. As a practical application of the developed testbed, supply chain attack scenarios were simulated by injecting malicious code into the controller logic, and the effects of manipulating sensor inputs and control commands were observed. While this HIL testbed provides more detailed simulations, enhanced realism, and wider applicability compared to other options utilizing a less complex simulator, it is also more intricate and costly. For this reason, we include a detailed comparison with some alternative architectures to aid fellow researchers and practitioners in the selection of a suitable HIL architecture based on specific research objectives.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗