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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Land Surface Data Assimilation and the Gulf Coast Sea-Breeze

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts simulations of near-surface meteorology on the 4- to 48-hour time scale. The technique is implemented within the PSU/NCAR MM5 V34 and applied on a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest centered over Oklahoma. Two Friday periods during 2000 were selected for study, one during the warm season (May-June) and the other in the cold season (Nov-Dec). Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and dewpoint show that the assimilation technique can improve numerical simulations on both regional and continental scales. Comparison of the simulated surface energy and water fluxes with observations from Energy Balance Bowen Ratio measurements taken at CART/ARM sites in the Southern Great Plains showed the assimilation technique produces a realistic argument of the Bowen ratio in both seasons. Additional runs with the Oregon State University land surface scheme as implemented within MM5 will be made and comparisons with assimilation results will be presented at the meeting.

Lapenta, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Two-Season ACTPol Extragalactic Point Sources and Their Polarization Properties

We report on measurements of the polarization of extragalactic sources at 148 GHz made during the first two seasons of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Polarization (ACTPol) survey. The survey covered 680 deg 2 of the sky on the celestial equator. Polarization measurements of 169 intensity-selected sources brighter than 30 mJy, that are predominantly active galactic nuclei, are presented. Above a total flux of 215 mJy where the noise bias removal in the polarization measurement is reliable, we detect 26 sources, 14 of which have a detection of linear polarization at greater than 3σ significance. The distribution of the fractional polarization as a function of total source intensity is analysed.

Rahul Datta↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Continuing Long-term Global SO 2 Data Record with JPSS OMPS Instruments

NASA’s long-term Earth Observing System (EOS) SO 2 climate data record (CDR) started with Aura/Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI, launched in 2004) and is now being continued with the SNPP/Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS, launched in 2011). Both OMI and SNPP/OMPS SO 2 CDRs are produced with the Goddard principal component analysis (PCA) spectral fitting algorithm. By inherently accounting for various instrumental factors, the PCA technique enables highly consistent retrievals between different instruments. In this presentation, we will provide an overview on our effort to further extend the EOS SO 2 CDR, by implementing the PCA SO 2 algorithm with multiple OMPS instruments flying on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) constellation, including NOAA-20 (launched in 2017) and NOAA-21 (launched in 2022). We will present results analyzing our new NOAA-20/OMPS PCA SO 2 EOS continuity product, to be publicly released in fall of 2023. We will show statistical analyses on the quality of NOAA-20 PCA SO 2 product, such as retrieval noise, biases over background areas, and long-term stability. We will employ a previously established top-down method to estimate SO2 emissions from selected large point sources, using NOAA-20 SO 2 retrievals and assimilated wind fields as input. The SO 2 emission estimates derived from NOAA-20 retrievals will be compared with those from OMI, SNPP/OMPS, and S5P/TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument). We will also demonstrate the application of a new machine learning technique that further reduces the noise of NOAA-20 SO 2 retrievals. Finally, we will present preliminary PCA SO 2 retrievals from recently launched satellite sensors, including NOAA-21/OMPS and NASA’s geostationary TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) instrument.

SO2↗
NASA NTRS1992

Spacecraft flight control system design selection process for a geostationary communication satellite

The Earth's first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, slowly tumbled in orbit. The first U.S. satellite, Explorer 1, also tumbled out of control. Now, as we launch the Mars observer and the Cassini spacecraft, stability and control have become higher priorities. The flight control system design selection process is reviewed using as an example a geostationary communication satellite which is to have a life expectancy of 10 to 14 years. Disturbance torques including aerodynamic, magnetic, gravity gradient, solar, micrometeorite, debris, collision, and internal torques are assessed to quantify the disturbance environment so that the required compensating torque can be determined. Then control torque options, including passive versus active, momentum control, bias momentum, spin stabilization, dual spin, gravity gradient, magnetic, reaction wheels, control moment gyros, nutation dampers, inertia augmentation techniques, three-axis control, reactions control system (RCS), and RCS sizing, are considered. A flight control system design is then selected and preliminary stability criteria are met by the control gains selection.

Barret, C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A contactless in situ EFISH method for measuring electrostatic potential profile of semiconductor/electrolyte junctions

In photoelectrochemical cells, promising devices for directly converting solar energy into storable chemical fuels, the spatial variation of the electrostatic potential across the semiconductor–electrolyte junction is the key parameter that determines the cell performance. In principle, electric field induced second harmonic generation (EFISH) provides a contactless in situ spectroscopic tool to measure the spatial variation of electrostatic potential. However, the total second harmonic generation (SHG) signal contains the contributions of the EFISH signals of semiconductor space charge layer and the electric double layer, in addition to the SHG signal of the electrode surface. The interference of these complex quantities hinders their analysis. In this work, to understand and deconvolute their contributions to the total SHG signals, bias-dependent SHG measurements are performed on the rutile TiO2(100)–electrolyte junction as a function of light polarization and crystal azimuthal angle (angle of the incident plane relative to the crystal [001] axis). A quadratic response between SHG intensity and the applied potential is observed in both the accumulation and depletion regions of TiO2. The relative phase difference and amplitude ratio are extracted at selected azimuthal angles and light polarizations. At 0° azimuthal angle and s-in–p-out polarization, the SHG intensity minimum has the best match with the TiO2 flatband potential due to the orthogonal relative phase difference between bias-dependent and bias-independent SHG terms. We further measure the pH-dependent flatband potential and probe the photovoltage under open circuit conditions using the EFISH technique, demonstrating the capability of this contactless method for measuring electrostatic potential at semiconductor–electrolyte junctions.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

SpecDis: Value Added Distance Catalog for 4 Million Stars from DESI Year-1 Data

We present the SpecDis value-added stellar distance catalog accompanying DESI Data Release 1. SpecDis trains a feed-forward neural network (NN) with Gaia parallaxes and gets the distance estimates. To build up an unbiased training sample, we do not apply selections on parallax error or signal-to-noise (S/N) of the stellar spectra, and instead, we incorporate parallax error into the loss function. Moreover, we employ principal component analysis to reduce the noise and dimensionality of stellar spectra. Validated by independent external samples of member stars with precise distances from globular clusters, dwarf galaxies, stellar streams, combined with blue horizontal branch stars, we demonstrate that our distance measurements show no significant bias up to 100 kpc, and are much more precise than Gaia parallax beyond 7 kpc. The median distance uncertainties are 23%, 19%, 11%, and 7% for S/N < 20, 20 ≤ S/N < 60, 60 ≤ S/N < 100, and S/N ≥ 100. Selecting stars with ${\mathrm{log}}\,g\lt 3.8$ and distance uncertainties smaller than 25%, we have more than 74,000 giant candidates within 50 kpc of the Galactic center and 1500 candidates beyond this distance. Additionally, we develop a Gaussian mixture model to identify unresolvable equal-mass binaries by modeling the discrepancy between the NN-predicted and the geometric absolute magnitudes from Gaia parallaxes and identify 120,000 equal-mass binary candidates. Our final catalog provides distances and distance uncertainties for >4 million stars, offering a valuable resource for Galactic astronomy.

astronomy data analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Clustering analysis of medium-band selected high-redshift galaxies

Next-generation large-scale structure spectroscopic surveys will probe cosmology at high redshifts (2.3 < z < 3.5), relying on abundant galaxy tracers such as Lyα emitters (LAEs) and Lyman break galaxies (LBGs). Medium-band photometry has emerged as a potential technique for efficiently selecting these high-redshift galaxies. In this work, we present clustering analysis of medium-band selected galaxies at high redshift, utilizing photometric data from the Intermediate Band Imaging Survey (IBIS) and spectroscopic data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We interpret the clustering of such samples using both Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) modeling and a perturbation theory description of large-scale structure. Our modeling indicates that the current target sample is composed from an overlapping mixture of LAEs and LBGs with emission lines. Despite differences in target selection, we find that the clustering properties are consistent with previous studies, with correlation lengths r 0 ≃ 3-4 h -1 Mpc and a linear bias of b ∼ 1.8-2.5. Finally, we discuss the simulation requirements implied by these measurements and demonstrate that the properties of the samples would make them excellent targets to enhance our understanding of the high-z universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 AMIP Simulated Clouds and Surface Shortwave Radiation Using ARM Observations over Different Climate Regions

The simulations of clouds and surface radiation from 10 CMIP6 models and their CMIP5 predecessors are compared to the ARM ground-based observations over different climate regions. Compared to the ARM radar-lidar derived total cloud fractions (CFT) and cloud fraction vertical distributions over the six selected sites, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 significantly underestimated CFT and low-level CF over the Northern Hemispheric midlatitude sites (SGPC1 and ENAC1), although the biases are generally smaller in CMIP6. Over the tropical oceanic site (TWPC2), 5 out of 10 CMIP6 models better simulated low-level CF than their CMIP5 predecessors. CMIP6 simulations generally agreed well with the ARM observations in CFT and cloud fraction vertical distributions over the tropical continental (MAOM1) and coastal (TWPC3) sites but missed the transitions between dry and wet seasons, similar to CMIP5 simulations. The improvements in downwelling shortwave fluxes (SWdn) at the surface from the majority of CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 primarily resulted from the improved cloud fraction simulations, especially over the SGPC1, ENAC1, and TWPC3 sites. By contrast, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models exhibited diverse performances of clouds and shortwave radiation over the Arctic site (NSAC1), where CMIP6 models produced more clouds than CMIP5 models, especially for the low-level clouds. The comparisons between observations and CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations provide valuable quantitative assessments of the accuracy of mean states and variabilities in the model simulations and shed light on general directions to improve climate models in different regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probing Axial Symmetry Breaking in the Galaxy with Gaia Data Release 2

We study a set of solar neighborhood ($d < 3$ kpc) stars from Gaia Data Release 2 to determine azimuthal star count differences, i.e., left and right of the line from the Galactic center through the sun - and compare these differences north and south. In this companion paper to Gardner et al. (2020), we delineate our procedures to remove false asymmetries from sampling effects, incompleteness, and/or interloper populations, as this is crucial to tests of axisymmetry. Particularly, we have taken care to make appropriate selections of magnitude, color, in-plane Galactocentric radius and Galactic $|b|$ and $|z|$. We find that requiring parallax determinations of high precision induces sampling biases, so that we eschew such requirements and exclude, e.g., regions around the lines of sight to the Magellanic clouds, along with their mirror-image lines of sight, to ensure well-matched data sets. After making conservative cuts, we demonstrate the existence of azimuthal asymmetries, and find differences in those, north and south. These asymmetries give key insights into the nature and origins of the perturbations on Galactic matter, allowing us to assess the relative influence of the Magellanic Clouds (LMC & SMC), the Galactic bar, and other masses on the Galactic mass distribution, as described in Gardner et al. (2020). The asymmetry's radial dependence reveals variations that we attribute to the Galactic bar, and it changes sign at a radius of $(0.95 \pm 0.03) R_0$, with $R_0$ the Sun-Galactic-Center (GC) distance, to give us the first direct assessment of the outer Lindblad resonant radius.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1977

SEM analysis of ionizing radiation effects in linear integrated circuits

A successful diagnostic technique was developed using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) as a precision tool to determine ionization effects in integrated circuits. Previous SEM methods radiated the entire semiconductor chip or major areas. The large area exposure methods do not reveal the exact components which are sensitive to radiation. To locate these sensitive components a new method was developed, which consisted in successively irradiating selected components on the device chip with equal doses of electrons /10 to the 6th rad (Si)/, while the whole device was subjected to representative bias conditions. A suitable device parameter was measured in situ after each successive irradiation with the beam off.

Stanley, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Biodiversity within hot spring microbial mat communities: molecular monitoring of enrichment cultures

We have begun to examine the basis for incongruence between hot spring microbial mat populations detected by cultivation or by 16S rRNA methods. We used denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) to monitor enrichments and isolates plated therefrom. At near extincting inoculum dilutions we observed Chloroflexus-like and cyanobacterial populations whose 16S rRNA sequences have been detected in the 'New Pit' Spring Chloroflexus mat and the Octopus Spring cyanobacterial mat. Cyanobacterial populations enriched from 44 to 54 degrees C and 56 to 63 degrees C samples at near habitat temperatures were similar to those previously detected in mat samples of comparable temperatures. However, a lower temperature enrichment from the higher temperature sample selected for the populations found in the lower temperature sample. Three Thermus populations detected by both DGGE and isolation exemplify even more how enrichment may bias our view of community structure. The most abundant population was adapted to the habitat temperature (50 degrees C), while populations adapted to 65 degrees C and 70 degrees C were 10(2)- and 10(4)-fold less abundant, respectively. However, enrichment at 70 degrees C favored the least abundant strain. Inoculum dilution and incubation at the habitat temperature favored the more numerically relevant populations. We enriched many other aerobic chemoorganotrophic populations at various inoculum dilutions and substrate concentrations, most of whose 16S rRNA sequences have not been detected in mats. A common feature of numerically relevant cyanobacterial, Chloroflexus-like and aerobic chemorganotrophic populations, is that they grow poorly and resist cultivation on solidified medium, suggesting plating bias, and that the medium composition and incubation conditions may not reflect the natural microenvironments these populations inhabit.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1986

An evaluation of errors observed in the measurement of low wind velocities

Measurements of low wind velocities (the absolute value of V sub H is approx. equal to 6 m/s) with a VHF wind profiler can be difficult if ground clutter or other biases in the system dominate in altering the position of the perceived peak in the calculated power spectrum. A variety of methods for ground clutter suppression are used in profiler systems today (Cornish, 1983). An editing method called zero suppression takes the spectral value of selectable number of points (N) on each side of 0 velocity (one point on either side, in this study) and sets them equal to the mean value of the points exterior to the specified N points on either side of 0. Analysis done with the PSU VHF(1) radar, shows that this zero-suppression method can systematically bias horizontal wings V sub H below 6 m/s. With the zero suppression, an artificial increase in absolute wind velocities occurs when the spectral peaks fall within the plus or minus N points of the FFT (personal communication, Strauch, 1985). It was also established that the method artificially decreases the absolute wind velocities inferred from spectral peaks that are outside but near the suppressed region. Comparisons of wind profiles observed with and without zero suppression are given. The range of the biased velocities extends to about plus or minus 6 m/s. Biases have been deduced to be as much as 2 m/s, but more commonly they are on the order of 1.0 m/s.

Williams, S. R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact Mapping for Geospatial Reasoning and Decision Making

Objective The reported study evaluated a novel approach to aiding geospatial reasoning and decision making. Background Impact mapping aims to alleviate the cognitive demands of geospatial tasks in part by externalizing data in the form of an integrated decision surface. This is achieved by aggregating data across multiple sources of information and visualizing their combined utility rather than objective measurements or individual utility. Previous research has shown that geospatial decisions improve when aided in this manner, but it remains unknown if dynamic decision making, often plagued by fatigue and anchoring bias, would benefit similarly. Method The experiment implemented a systematic manipulation of the presence of a composite impact map and the number of attributes present in a two-stage disaster relief, resource allocation task to investigate when and how impact mapping is beneficial or deleterious to decision makers. Results The presence of the composite impact map increased the utility of selected sites, increased re-planning decisions, reduced information display views, and reduced workload. Generally, the effect of the composite impact map was greater when participants were asked to evaluate more attributes. Conclusion Composite impact maps appear to improve repeated geospatial reasoning and minimize anchoring bias because they alleviate the cognitive demands otherwise necessary to interpret and maintain information from multiple attributes. Application Data visualization techniques, such as impact mapping, can improve repeated geospatial decision making in environments that include high cognitive demand.

Illingworth, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clustering of CODEX clusters

The clustering of galaxy clusters links the spatial nonuniformity of dark matter halos to the growth of the primordial spectrum of perturbations. The amplitude of the clustering signal is widely used to estimate the halo mass of astrophysical objects. The advent of cluster mass calibrations enables using clustering in cosmological studies. Aims. We analyze the autocorrelation function of a large contiguous sample of galaxy clusters, the Constrain Dark Energy with X-ray (CODEX) sample, in which we take particular care of cluster definition. These clusters were X-ray selected using the ROentgen SATellite All-Sky Survey and then identified as galaxy clusters using the code redMaPPer run on the photometry of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We develop methods for precisely accounting for the sample selection effects on the clustering and demonstrate their robustness using numerical simulations. Methods. Using the clean CODEX sample, which was obtained by applying a redshift-dependent richness selection, we computed the two-point autocorrelation function of galaxy clusters in the 0.1 < z < 0.3 and 0.3 < z < 0.5 redshift bins. We compared the bias in the measured correlation function with values obtained in numerical simulations using a similar cluster mass range. Results. By fitting a power law, we measured a correlation length r 0 = 18.7 ± 1.1 and slope γ = 1.98 ± 0.14 for the correlation function in the full redshift range. By fixing the other cosmological parameters to their nine-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe values, we reproduced the observed shape of the correlation function under the following cosmological conditions: Ω m0 = $0.22_{-0.03}^{+0.04}$ and S 8 = σ 8 (Ω m0 /0.3)0.5 = $0.85_{-0.08}^{+0.10}$ with estimated additional systematic errors of σ Ω m0 = 0.02 and σS 8 = 0.20. We illustrate the complementarity of clustering constraints by combining them with CODEX cosmological constraints based on the X-ray luminosity function, deriving Ωm = 0.25 ± 0.01 and σ 8 = $0.81_{-0.02}^{+0.01}$ with an estimated additional systematic error of σ Ω m0 = 0.07 and σ σ8 = 0.04. The mass calibration and statistical quality of the mass tracers are the dominant source of uncertainty.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tuning magneto-optical zero reflection via dual-channel hybrid magnonics

Multichannel coupling in hybrid systems makes an attractive testbed not only because of the distinct advantages entailed by each constituent mode but also because the opportunity to leverage interference among the various excitation pathways. Here, via combined analytical calculation and experiment, we demonstrate that the phase of the magnetization precession at the interface of a coupled yttrium iron garnet (YIG)/permalloy (Py) bilayer is collectively controlled by the microwave photon field torque and the interlayer exchange torque, manifesting a coherent, dual-channel excitation scheme that effectively tunes the magneto-optical spectrum. Furthermore, the different torque contributions vary with frequency, external bias field, and type of interlayer coupling between YIG and Py, which further results in destructive or constructive interferences between the two excitation channels, and hence selective suppression or amplification of the hybridized magnon modes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology

Abstract In this study, we calibrate a regional climate model’s (RCM) underlying land surface model (LSM). In addition to providing a realistic representation of runoff across the hydroclimatically diverse western United States, this is done to take advantage of the RCM’s ability to physically resolve meteorological forcing data in ungauged regions, and to prepare the calibrated hydrologic model for tight coupling, or the ability to represent land surface–atmosphere interactions, with the RCM. Specifically, we use a 9-km resolution meteorological forcing dataset across the western United States, from the fifth generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) downscaled by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, as an offline forcing for Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP). We detail the steps involved in producing an LSM capable of accurately representing runoff, including physical parameterization selection, parameter calibration, and regionalization to ungauged basins. Based on our model evaluation from 1954 to 2021 for 586 basins with daily natural streamflow, the streamflow bias is reduced from 24.2% to 4.4%, and the median daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is improved from 0.12 to 0.36. When validating against basins with monthly natural streamflow data, we obtain a similar reduction in bias and a median monthly NSE improvement from 0.18 to 0.56. In this study, we also discover the optimal setup when using a donor-basin method to regionalize parameters to ungauged basins, which can vary by 0.06 NSE for unique designs of this regionalization method. Significance Statement This study provides useful guidance for improving a land surface model to accurately represent runoff across a spatially extensive and hydroclimatically diverse region (the western United States). The land surface model is updated to represent runoff more accurately at gauged basins, and then additionally updated for basins without observational data using a mathematical approach called the donor-basin method. We make use of a regional climate model’s reanalysis-derived meteorological data and its underlying land surface model to achieve realistic runoff. The calibrated land surface model can thus be tightly coupled in subsequent studies in a manner that should more accurately reflect runoff conditions. Findings from this study will serve as a useful reference for the atmospheric (and hydrologic) modeling communities and their ability to represent large-scale hydrology accurately.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model

Abstract. Warming trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed in recent decades, and concerns continue to rise about the pace and pattern of future climate change over the world's largest freshwater system. To date, most regional climate models used for Great Lakes projections either neglected the lake-atmosphere interactions or are only coupled with a 1-D column lake model to represent the lake hydrodynamics. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that has employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes. Using the three carefully selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), we show that the GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces surface air temperature and precipitation biases of the driving GCM ensemble average in present-day climate simulations. The improvements are not only displayed from an atmospheric perspective but are also evident in the accurate simulations of lake temperature and ice coverage. We further present the GLARM projected climate change for the mid-21st century (2030–2049) and the late 21st century (2080–2099) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the Great Lakes basin is projected to warm by 1.3–2.1 ∘C by the mid-21st century and 4.1–5.0 ∘C by the end of the century relative to the early century (2000–2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) reduces the mid-century warming to 0.8–1.8 ∘C and late-century warming to 1.8–2.7 ∘C. Annual precipitation in GLARM is projected to increase for the entire basin, varying from 0 % to 13 % during the mid-century and from 9 % to 32 % during the late century in different scenarios and simulations. The most significant increases are projected in spring and fall when current precipitation is highest and a minimal increase in winter when it is lowest. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) are also projected to increase across the five lakes in all of the simulations, but with strong seasonal and spatial variability. The most significant LST increases occur in Lakes Superior and Ontario. The strongest warming is projected in spring that persists into the summer, resulting from earlier and more intense stratification in the future. In addition, diminishing winter stratification in the future suggests the transition from dimictic lakes to monomictic lakes by the end of the century. In contrast, a relatively smaller increase in LSTs during fall and winter is projected with heat transfer to the deep water due to the strong mixing and energy required for ice melting. Correspondingly, the highest monthly mean ice cover is projected to reduce to 3 %–15 % and 10 %–40 % across the lakes by the end of the century in RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. In the coastal regions, ice duration is projected to decrease by up to 60 d.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗