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At least 487 records · Page 27

How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Abstract. A 15-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional simulations of the fast-moving and destructive derecho of 29–30 June 2012 that impacted the northeastern urban corridor of the USA is presented. This event generated 1100 reports of damaging winds, generated significant wind gusts over an extensive area of up to 500 000 km2, caused several fatalities, and resulted in widespread loss of electrical power. Extreme events such as this are increasingly being used within pseudo-global-warming experiments to examine the sensitivity of historical, societally important events to global climate non-stationarity and how they may evolve as a result of changing thermodynamic and dynamic contexts. As such it is important to examine the fidelity with which such events are described in hindcast experiments. The regional simulations presented herein are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The resulting ensemble is used to explore simulation fidelity relative to observations for wind gust magnitudes, spatial scales of convection (as is manifest in high composite reflectivity, cREF), and both rainfall and hail production as a function of model configuration (microphysics parameterization, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), start date, use of nudging, compiler choice, damping, and number of vertical levels). We also examine the degree to which each ensemble member differs with respect to key mesoscale drivers of convective systems (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) and critical manifestations of deep convection, e.g., vertical velocities, cold-pool generation, and how those properties relate to the correct characterization of the associated atmospheric hazards (wind gusts and hail). Use of a double-moment, seven-class scheme with number concentrations for all species (including hail and graupel) results in the greatest fidelity of model-simulated wind gusts and convective structure to the observations of this event. All ensemble members, however, fail to capture the intensity of the event in terms of the spatial extent of convection and the production of high near-surface wind gusts. We further show very high sensitivity to the LBCs employed and specifically that simulation fidelity is higher for simulations nested within ERA-Interim compared to ERA5. Excess convective available potential energy (CAPE) in all ensemble members after the derecho passage leads to excess production of convective cells, wind gusts, cREF > 40 dBZ, and precipitation during a frontal passage on the subsequent day. This event proved very challenging to forecast in real time and to reproduce in the 15-member hindcast simulation ensemble presented here. Future work could examine if simulations with other initial and lateral boundary conditions can achieve greater fidelity.

Shepherd, Tristan (ORCID:0000000186276419)↗

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗

Hybrid EMT-TS Simulation Strategies to Study High Bandwidth MMC-Based HVdc Systems

Modular multilevel converters (MMCs) are widely used in the design of modern high-voltage direct current (HVdc) transmission system. High-fidelity dynamic models of MMCs-based HVdc system require small simulation time step and can be accurately modeled in electro-magnetic transient (EMT) simulation programs. The EMT program exhibits slow simulation speed and limitation on the size of the model and brings certain challenges to test the high-fidelity HVdc model in system-level simulations. This paper presents the design and implementation of a hybrid simulation framework, which enables the co-simulation of the EMT model of Atlanta-Orlando HVdc line and the transient stability (TS) model of the entire Eastern Interconnection system. This paper also introduces the implementation of two high-fidelity HVdc line models simulated at different time steps and discusses a dedicated method for sizing the buffer areas on both sides of the HVdc line. The simulation results of the two HVdc models with different sizes of buffer areas are presented and compared.

Liu, Yuan↗

Real-time simulator and controller of power system using distributed data streaming server

Systems and methods for simulating and controlling a power system in real time, using a controller, are provided. The controller includes a simulation layer to simulate an operation of the power system, a disturbance generation layer to provide data to the simulation layer to disturb the simulated operation of the power system, an application layer to display the simulated operation of the power system and generate a control signal to control, based on the simulated operation of the power system, at least one element of the power system, and a distributed data streaming server (D2S2) to allow interoperability among the simulation layer, the disturbance layer, and the application layer.

Li, Fangxing↗

Comparison of Electromagnetic Transient and Phasor-based Simulation for the Stability of Grid-Forming-Inverter-based Microgrids

The increasing interest in studying feeder-level, inverter-based microgrids requires appropriate simulation methods that can effectively simulate the dynamics of distribution feeders that typically have thousands of nodes. To examine the accuracy of phasor-based simulation for the stability of feeder-level, inverter-based microgrids, a comparative study between electromagnetic transient (EMT) and phasor-based simulation was conducted. Case studies of a two-inverter small microgrid and a modified version of the IEEE 34-Node Test System that has seven grid-forming inverters show that phasor-based simulation agrees well with EMT simulation when the P-f droop gains of grid-forming inverter controllers are within normal ranges. However, under extremely high P-f droop gains, phasor-based simulation can result in over-optimistic stability results. This study provides insight into the applicability of phasor-based simulation for the stability of feeder-level, inverter-based microgrids.

Du, Wei↗

Incorporation of Thermal Hydraulic Models for Thermal Power Dispatch into a PWR Power Plant Simulator

This report describes the development, modeling, and results of a generic pressurized water reactor power plant simulator that incorporates coupled electrical and thermal power dispatch to an industrial process located approximately one kilometer from the nuclear power plant. The simulator is a commercial PWR simulator that has been modified to include thermal power dispatch as described in past milestone reports [ , ]. The commercial PWR simulator is a generic simulator available from GSE SYSTEMS® (Sykesville, MD, USA) that is built using RELAP5-HDTM Real-Time Solution and in-house software developed by GSE Systems. This generic PWR (GPWR) simulator performs real-time simulation of the complete power plant from the reactor neutronics to the electricity generation and distribution. All primary, secondary, and auxiliary systems are modeled including all control logic in order to provide the most accurate representation of actual nuclear power plant (NPP) operation, and the simulator results have been rigorously verified by an actual NPP operating at approximately 1 GWe. This report is a continuation of worked performed in previous years, and supplemental information from previous reports is included in the appendix for reference.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Snowmass2021 Computational Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations and Modeling

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Efficient Subset Simulation using Hamiltonian Neural Network enhanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

The Monte Carlo method delivers an unbiased estimate of the probability of failure. However, the variance of the estimate depends on the number of evaluated samples. This number must be very large for estimations of a low probability of failure. If the evaluation of each sample is computationally expensive, the crude Monte Carlo simulation strategy is impracticable. Therefore, subset simulations are used to reduce the required number of evaluations. Subset simulations require a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, such as the random walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The algorithm, however, struggles with sampling in low-probability regions, especially if they are narrow. As a consequence, advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations have been developed. In particular, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method explores the target distribution rapidly. Driven by the idea of Hamiltonian dynamics, this sampler provides a non-random walk through the target distribution. The incorporation of subset simulation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods has shown promising results for reliability analysis. One downside of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method is that gradient evaluations are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with high-dimensional problems and evaluating long trajectories. We show that integrating Hamiltonian neural networks in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulations significantly speeds up the sampling task. Furthermore, the enhancement of adaptive trajectory length within the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo results in the efficient proposal of the following states. Based on this recent enhancement, we provide a fast sampling strategy for subset simulations using Hamiltonian neural networks to replace the evaluation of the gradient and significantly speed up the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Buffer-IPyC separation process in TRISO fuel particles simulated with Bison code

During High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) operation, tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated-particle fuel undergoes irradiation-induced changes in morphology and thermomechanical properties. Experimental results from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program show, among other things, the mechanism of gap formation between the buffer and inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) layers, which could be explored further via computational simulations using the Bison code. Two simulation models were developed, the debonding restricted model, where no gap formation between buffer and IPyC layers is permitted, and the debonding enabled model, where the gap between those layers is created. The inputs of the simulated models are based on the irradiation conditions from the AGR-1 experiment. The research included simulations on spherical and aspherical fuel types. Under the specific temperatures and fluences of the AGR-1 irradiation experiment, and the Bison simulations, it was concluded that the most common scenario is a gap formation along the buffer-IPyC interface, while the least possible scenario is the situation where there is no gap formation at the buffer-IPyC junction. The computational results confirmed that the sphericity of the fuel influences the thickness of the gap that occurs at the buffer-IPyC junction, in a way that with increasing aspect ratio the gap thickness increases. The results obtained for spherical and aspherical fuel are nearly identical. Finally, performed simulations match conclusions observed from the AGR-1 experiment, which as such shows that the Bison code is a good computational method for simulating the TRISO fuel. Future simulations will include the validation of performed research and comparison of the results between Bison and PARFUME codes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The Importance of Being Adaptable: An Exploration of the Power and Limitations of Domain Adaptation for Simulation-Based Inference with Galaxy Clusters

The application of deep machine learning methods in astronomy has exploded in the last decade, with new models showing remarkably improved performance on benchmark tasks. Not nearly enough attention is given to understanding the models' robustness, especially when the test data are systematically different from the training data, or "out of domain." Domain shift poses a significant challenge for simulation-based inference, where models are trained on simulated data but applied to real observational data. In this paper, we explore domain shift and test domain adaptation methods for a specific scientific case: simulation-based inference for estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray profiles. We build datasets to mimic simulation-based inference: a training set from the Magneticum simulation, a scatter-augmented training set to capture uncertainties in scaling relations, and a test set derived from the IllustrisTNG simulation. We demonstrate that the Test Set is out of domain in subtle ways that would be difficult to detect without careful analysis. We apply three deep learning methods: a standard neural network (NN), a neural network trained on the scatter-augmented input catalogs, and a Deep Reconstruction-Regression Network (DRRN), a semi-supervised deep model engineered to address domain shift. Although the NN improves results by 17% in the Training Data, it performs 40% worse on the out-of-domain Test Set. Surprisingly, the Scatter-Augmented Neural Network (SANN) performs similarly. While the DRRN is successful in mapping the training and Test Data onto the same latent space, it consistently underperforms compared to a straightforward Yx scaling relation. These results serve as a warning that simulation-based inference must be handled with extreme care, as subtle differences between training simulations and observational data can lead to unforeseen biases creeping into the results.

Ntampaka, Michelle [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci↗

Python Library for Monte Carlo Simulations with Ab Initio and Machine-Learned Interatomic Potentials

There is a growing need in the simulation community for software that provides a transparent, reproducible, usable, and extensible (TRUE) Monte Carlo (MC) simulation framework employing energies from ab initio methods and machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs). We introduce a Python library (ASE-MC) that adds Monte Carlo functionality to the Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE) package. Now, we can combine the powerful tools used to build systems and perform ab initio and MLIP in ASE with MC simulation algorithms to sample the configurational space with a concise Python script. After presenting the design philosophy, we demonstrate the flexibility of our approach using selected examples. These example simulations include liquid water described with a message-passing MLIP in the canonical and isothermal–isobaric ensembles, sampling the characteristic dihedral angle of biphenyl and comparing an MLIP to first-principles calculations, and a grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation of ammonia adsorption on Pt(111). These examples showcase the main features of the software, which include flexibility in the choice of ab initio or MLIP engine, ab initio or MLIP grand canonical MC with cavity bias insertions and deletions, the ability to add custom MC moves to the move set, and how users can condense complex MC workflows into a single Python script. Finally, this library serves as a framework for reproducible Monte Carlo simulations, facilitating easy reproduction of the work and application to new systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Progress Toward Simulating Departure from Nucleate Boiling at High-Pressure Applications with Selected Wall Boiling Closures

Recently, a Eulerian-based two-fluid computational fluid dynamics (CFD) framework with a wall heat flux partitioning approach has been intensively investigated for departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) simulation under the U.S. Department of Energy–funded Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Understanding of the DNB characteristics over a range of pressurized water reactor–like operating conditions and accurate prediction of boiling crisis in the nuclear power system have been grand challenges because of the large impact of DNB on reactor safety and operational economics. The ultimate goal of this task in the CASL program is to introduce a robust multiphase CFD–based DNB modeling framework that is capable of characterizing an entire boiling history in which the wall boiling mode experiences the following through multiple stages of heat transfer mode: (1) single-phase convective heat transfer, (2) nucleate boiling heat transfer, and (3) identification of the departure of nucleate boiling. To validate the CASL boiling model, we have benchmarked simulated DNB over three different flow channel configurations (pipe flow, 5 × 5 fuel bundle with mixing vane tests, and 5 × 5 fuel bundle without mixing vane tests) against experimental measurements, and the validation result with open literature is reported. The DNB detection criteria in the simulation are checked by monitoring the peak wall temperature, wall dryout factor, and net energy balance. In addition to the DNB performance test, some preliminary sensitivity results on closure model selection are reported to address the prediction capability of local void profile against measurements. The boiling simulation tested in this study exhibits a maximum deviation of 24% from the measured DNB value in a high-pressure (i.e., 138 bars) subcooled pipe flow test. The ranges of operating conditions are as follows: 1650 to 2650 kg/m 2 ·s for mass flux and 8.5 to 96 K for subcooled inlet temperature. The deviation is even reduced to 7% when the subcooled temperature is less than 40 K. Besides accuracy, base practice guidelines for DNB detection criteria are tested by monitoring three simulation variables: (1) maximum wall temperature, (2) wall dryout factor (i.e., K-value), and (3) energy balance. Numerical robustness of DNB simulation is largely achieved in most of the validation test except for a few high subcooled test cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

HERO WEC V1.0 2024 - WEC-Sim Detailed Simulation Runs and Summary Data

This dataset includes results from simulations of NREL's hydraulic and electric reverse osmosis wave energy converter (HEREO WEC). Simulation runs include 135 wave cases that were based on the updated WEC-Sim model, which is linked below. The data represented in this repository is based on an updated WEC-Sim model using laboratory data to tune and refine the original WEC-Sim model for the V1.0 HERO WEC. The 135 wave cases represent waves with the following wave height and wave period ranges: - Significant Wave Height: 0.25 - 3.75m in 0.25m increments - Wave Period: 5 - 13 sec in 1 sec increments Each run was simulated using a Pierson-Moskowitz irregular wave spectrum with a 100 second ramp time, a total simulation time of 3,100 seconds, and a simulation time-step of 0.005s. A reference table has been included to map each multi condition run (MCR) case with each wave condition. Summary data set includes a spreadsheet and image files with matrices that are associated with data from simulation runs. All matrices cover the same significant wave height and wave periods from the simulation runs, in the same increments. The following matrices are included: - Power Abs: The average absorbed power from the WEC (calculated from anchor reaction force and heave velocity) - Power Hyd: The average hydraulic power output at pump (calculated from pump output flow and pressure) - Power - Hyd ROi: The average hydraulic power measured at the RO system inlet (calculated from RO system pressure and flow (pre-accumulator)) - Flow - Pump out: The average flowrate measured at the pump outlet - Flow - Perm: The average permeate (clean water) production - Flow - RO (pre): The average flowrate measured at the inlet of the RO system before the accumulators - Flow - RO (post): The average flowrate measured after the accumulator bank in the RO system - Pressure - RO: The average pressure measured at the inlet of the RO system This data set has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Water Power Technologies Office.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Regional-Scale 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of M w 7 Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, Northern California Resolving Frequencies 0–10 Hz and Including Site-Response Corrections

Large earthquake ground-motion simulations in 3D Earth models provide constraints on site-specific shaking intensities but have suffered from limited frequency resolution and ignored site response in soft soils. In this work we report new regional-scale 3D simulations for moment magnitude 7.0 scenario earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, northern California with SW4. Simulations resolved significantly broader band frequencies (0–10 Hz) than previous studies and represent the highest resolution simulations for any such earthquake to date. Seismic waves were excited by a kinematic rupture following Graves and Pitarka (2016) and obeyed wave propagation in a 3D Earth model with topography from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assuming a minimum shear wavespeed, VSmin, of 500 m/s. We corrected motions for linear and nonlinear site response for the shear wavespeed, VS, from the USGS 3D model, using a recently developed ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra . At soft soil locations subjected to strong shaking, the site-corrected intensities reflect the competing effects of linear amplification by low V S material, reduction of stiffness during nonlinear deformation, and damping of high frequencies. Sites with near-surface V S of 500 m/s or greater require no linear site correction but can experience amplitude reduction due to nonlinear response. Averaged over all sites, we obtained reasonable agreement with empirical ergodic median GMMs currently used for seismic hazard and design ground motions (epsilon less than 1), with marked improvement at soft sedimentary sites. At specific locations, the simulated shaking intensities show systematic differences from the GMMs that reveal path and site effects not captured in these ergodic models. Results suggest how next generation regional-scale earthquake simulations can provide higher spatial and frequency resolution while including effects of soft soils that are commonly ignored in scenario earthquake ground-motion simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of Simulations of Double-detonation Type Ia Supernovae to Integration Methodology

Abstract We study the coupling of hydrodynamics and reactions in simulations of the double-detonation model for Type Ia supernovae. When assessing the convergence of simulations, the focus is usually on spatial resolution; however, the method of coupling the physics together as well as the tolerances used in integrating a reaction network also play an important role. In this paper, we explore how the choices made in both coupling and integrating the reaction portion of a simulation (operator/Strang splitting versus the simplified spectral deferred corrections method we introduced previously) influences the accuracy, efficiency, and nucleosynthesis of simulations of double detonations. We find no need to limit reaction rates or reduce the simulation time step to the reaction timescale. The entire simulation methodology used here is GPU-accelerated and made freely available as part of the Castro simulation code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Portable interactive visualization of large-scale simulations in geotechnical engineering using Unity3D

Development in large-scale geotechnical engineering simulation places tremendous demand for efficient visualization of such simulation data. This study presents a lightweight software tool, i.e. Geotechnical Interactive Visualization (GIV), as a solution to this challenge, which achieves efficient interactive visualization of large-scale simulations data in geotechnical engineering. Visualization data flow and algorithms specifically optimized for common geotechnical engineering applications are implemented in GIV. GIV can visualize geotechnical structure models with time-varying attributes attached to mesh with fixed topology, and also models with time-varying mesh topologies but no attributes attached, the two most common visualization tasks in geotechnical engineering. Furthermore, challenges for large-scale simulation data visualization, including parallel simulation data redundancy, massive data size, dynamic user interaction, and portability are overcome via specifically designed algorithms for simulation data preprocessing and optimized visualization modules using the powerful 3D rendering and interactive game engine Unity3D. Comparison of GIV with several widely used visualization tools for the visualization of large-scale idealized datasets and realistic geotechnical simulations highlights the visualization efficiency, smooth interactivity, and lightweight features of GIV.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the convergence of statistics in simulations of stationary incompressible turbulent flows

When reporting statistics from simulations of statistically stationary chaotic phenomenon, it is important to verify that the simulations are time-converged. This condition is connected with the statistical error or number of digits with which statistics can be reliably reported. In this work we consider numerical experiments of low Reynolds number incompressible homogeneous and isotropic turbulence as a model problem to investigate statistical convergence over finite simulation times. Specifically, we investigate the time integration requirements that allow meaningful reporting of the statistical error associated with finiteness of the temporal domain. We address two key questions: (1) How long should a simulation be performed in terms of large eddy time, and (2) How should the simulation time be divided among temporal windows over which a quantity of interest is estimated so that its statistical error could be reliably reported? We find that reliable reporting of statistical errors requires simulations on the order of 10 4 large eddy times, which is orders of magnitude longer than typically performed. Additionally, data post-processing should employ windows of at least ten times the large eddy time scale, with the most robust computation of statistical error of the mean requiring window sizes of an additional factor of ten. For practical simulations, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the statistical error within a factor of two under a less stringent condition in which a minimum of four windows with size at least ten large eddy times are used. In conclusion, our observations for homogeneous isotropic turbulence are also shown to hold in turbulent channel flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗

3D xRAGE simulation of inertial confinement fusion implosion with imposed mode 2 laser drive asymmetry

Low-mode asymmetries represent an important obstacle to achieving high-gain inertial confinement fusion implosions. As a step in learning how to control such effects, an OMEGA experiment with imposed mode 2 laser drive asymmetries was done to study the expected signatures of this type of asymmetry [M. Gatu Johnson et al., PRE 2018]. In the present work, a 3D xRAGE simulation including the stalk mount has been brought to bear on the data from that experiment. Furthermore, comprehensive comparisons between simulated and measured observables are made. Good agreement between simulated and measured x-ray image-inferred shell trajectories, bang times and neutron emission widths are seen, showing that the hydrodynamics are well captured in the simulation. Asymmetries seen in simulated and measured time-resolved and time-integrated x-ray images and areal densities also compare well, showing impact of both stalk and mode 2. On the other hand, important differences in measured and simulated neutron emission histories, yield, and ion temperature (T ion ) asymmetries are seen, suggesting that the simulation is overestimating shock yield. Overall, the results clearly demonstrate the importance of considering all asymmetry sources when interpreting measured signatures of asymmetry.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗