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At least 487 records · Page 27

Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation by Integrating Physical with Statistical Models

Accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is crucial for distribution grid control and optimization. Unfortunately, most of the residential solar PV installations are behind-the-meter. Thus, utilities only have access to the net load readings. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for estimating solar PV generation by disaggregating the net load readings. The proposed framework synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model with a statistical model for load estimation. Specifically, our algorithm iteratively estimates solar PV generation with a physical model and electric load with the Hidden Markov model regression. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is validated against net load and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. The validation results show that our method reduces mean squared error by 44% compared to the state-of-the-art disaggregation algorithm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Physics of the primitive solar accretion disk

The theory of viscous accretion disks developed by Lynden-Bell and Pringle (1974) has been applied to the evolution of the primitive solar nebula. The additional physical input needed to determine the structure of the disk is described. A series of calculations was carried out using a steady flow approximation to explore the effects on the disk properties of variations in such parameters as the angular momentum and accretion rate of the infalling material from a collapsing interstellar cloud fragment. The more detailed evolutionary calculations involved five cases with various combinations of parameters. It was concluded that the late stages of evolution of the disks would be dominated by the effects of mass loss from the expansion of a hot disk corona into space, and the effects of this were included in the evolutionary calculations. A new theory of comet formation is formulated upon these results. The most important result is the conclusion that the primitive solar accretion disk was repeatedly unstable against axisymmetric perturbations, in which rings would form and collapse upon themselves, with the subsequent formation of giant gaseous protoplanets.

Cameron, A. G. W.↗

Heliophysics: The Solar and Space Physics of a New Era. Recommended Roadmap for Science and Technology 2009-2030

Our planet is immersed in a seemingly invisible yet exotic and inherently dangerous environment. Above the protective cocoon of Earth's lower atmosphere is a plasma soup composed of electrified and magnetized matter entwined with penetrating radiation and energetic particles. The Earth's magnetic field interacts with the Sun's outer atmosphere to create this extraordinary environment.

Heliophysics↗

The physical chemistry of solar fuels catalysis

The demonstration of effective light-driven electrochemical water splitting at the surface of a TiO 2 electrode in the seminal 1972 Honda–Fujishima publication spurred global research efforts to understand this effect and design advanced systems for solar H 2 generation from water as a carbon-free and sustainable fuel. In the 50+ years since that discovery, research investigating approaches toward the catalytic generation of the so-called “solar fuels,” i.e., not only H 2 from water but also CO 2 reduction products and NH 3 from N 2 , has expanded dramatically in scope and scale. The development of new experimental and computational methods and construction and commissioning of large-scale facilities have paved the way for important insights into the machinery of natural photosynthesis, leading to a greater understanding of the complexity of light-to-chemical energy conversion with an exquisite temporal and spatial resolution. Finally, these studies have provided the foundation for biologically inspired molecular and hybrid designs with the goal to promote the photochemical steps critical to solar fuels generation while avoiding unproductive or unnecessary pathways.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Overview of cosmic rays, solar and interplanetary physics research (1987-1990)

A brief survey of recent U.S. investigations in the field of heliospheric plasmas and their manifestations is presented, introducing the following collection of detailed reviews (accessions A91-46959 to A91-46964). Topics examined include the large-scale structure of interplanetary plasmas, models of Galactic cosmic-ray production and propagation, solar-wind turbulence, long-period solar-terrestrial variability, the possible relation between solar-neutrino counts and the sunspot cycle, X-ray studies of solar flares and their implications for solar processes, and the near-sun magnetic field.

Jokipii, J. R.↗

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-year analysis of physical interactions between solar PV arrays and underlying soil-plant complex in vegetated utility-scale systems

Concerns over the land use changes impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) development are increasing as PV energy development expands. Co-locating utility-scale solar energy with vegetation may maintain or rehabilitate the land's ability to provide ecosystem services. Previous studies have shown that vegetation under and around the panels may improve the performance of the co-located PV and that PV may create a favorable environment for the growth of vegetation. While there have been some pilot-scale experiments, the existence and magnitude of these benefits of vegetation has not been confirmed in a utility-scale PV facility over multiple years. In this study we use power output data coupled with microclimatic measurements in temperate climates to assess these potential benefits. Here this study combines multi-year microclimatic measurements to analyze the physical interactions between PV arrays and the underlying soil-vegetation system in three utility-scale PV facilities in Minnesota, USA. No significant cooling of PV panels or increased power production was observed in PV arrays with underlying vegetation. Fine soil particle fraction was the highest in soils within PV arrays with the vegetation which was attributable to the lowest wind speeds from the compounding suppression of wind by vegetation and PV arrays. Soil moisture and soil nutrient response to re-vegetation varied between PV facilities, which could be attributed to differing soil texture. No statistically significant vegetation-driven panel cooling was observed in this climate. This finding prompts a need for site-specific studies to identify contributing factors for environmental co-benefits in co-located systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

INJECTION OF PLASMA INTO THE NASCENT SOLAR WIND VIA RECONNECTION DRIVEN BY SUPERGRANULAR ADVECTION

To understand the origin of the solar wind is one of the key research topics in modern solar and heliospheric physics. Previous solar wind models assumed that plasma flows outward along a steady magnetic flux tube that reaches continuously from the photosphere through the chromosphere into the corona. Inspired by more recent comprehensive observations, Tu et al. suggested a new scenario for the origin of the solar wind, in which it flows out in a magnetically open coronal funnel and mass is provided to the funnel by small-scale side loops. Thus mass is supplied by means of magnetic reconnection that is driven by supergranular convection. To validate this scenario and simulate the processes involved, a 2.5 dimensional (2.5D) numerical MHD model is established in the present paper. In our simulation a closed loop moves toward an open funnel, which has opposite polarity and is located at the edge of a supergranulation cell, and magnetic reconnection is triggered and continues while gradually opening up one half of the closed loop. Its other half connects with the root of the open funnel and forms a new closed loop which is submerged by a reconnection plasma stream flowing downward. Thus we find that the outflowing plasma in the newly reconnected funnel originates not only from the upward reconnection flow but also from the high-pressure leg of the originally closed loop. This implies an efficient supply of mass from the dense loop to the dilute funnel. The mass flux of the outflow released from the funnel considered in our study is calculated to be appropriate for providing the mass flux at the coronal base of the solar wind, though additional heating and acceleration mechanisms are necessary to keep the velocity at the higher location. Our numerical model demonstrates that in the funnel the mass for the solar wind may be supplied from adjacent closed loops via magnetic reconnection as well as directly from the footpoints of open funnels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Physical properties of solar chromospheric plages. I - Line profiles of the CaII H, K, and infrared triplet lines.

Double pass photoelectric observations are presented of five CaII lines (H, K, 8498 A, 8542 A, and 8662 A) in a number of solar plages of different degrees of activity, quiet regions, and a sunspot. The data are compared with previous work. All five lines show increasing emission together in plages, and the least opaque of the infrared triplet lines appears to exhibit core emission prior to the more opaque members of the multiplet. The question of source function equality is considered and the differences and similarities among plage profiles and between plage and quiet profiles are shown qualitatively and quantitatively.

Shine, R. A.↗

Physical properties of solar chromospheric plages. II - Chromospheric plage models

Chromospheric models of plages are proposed to explain profiles of the Ca II H, K, 8498-A, 8542-A, and 8662-A lines. These models are consistent with boundary conditions imposed by the photosphere and the Lyman continuum. It is found that increasing emission in these lines is consistent with a picture of increasing temperature gradient in the low chromosphere and the resulting increase in pressure and electron density at similar line optical depths. With this picture it is shown how the distribution of chromospheric parameters across the solar disk can be empirically determined directly from Ca II filtergrams. It is also proposed that the high-density aspects of solar activity are produced by steep temperature gradients in the low chromosphere and thus by the enhanced heating mechanisms that steepen these gradients.

Shine, R. A.↗

Physical properties of solar chromospheric plages. III - Models based on Ca II and Mg II observations

Solar plages are modeled using observations of both the Ca II K and the Mg II h and k lines. A partial-redistribution approach is employed for calculating the line profiles on the basis of a grid of five model chromospheres. The computed integrated emission intensities for the five atmospheric models are compared with observations of six regions on the sun as well as with models of active-chromosphere stars. It is concluded that the basic plage model grid proposed by Shine and Linsky (1974) is still valid when the Mg II lines are included in the analysis and the Ca II and Mg II lines are analyzed using partial-redistribution diagnostics.

Kelch, W. L.↗

Studies conducted as a search for physical mechanisms relating solar variability and the troposphere

Chains of causative mechanisms that are hypothesized to relate solar variability to the behavior of the Earth's lower atmosphere were assessed. Solar variations believed most likely to constitute the forcing functions in hypothesized solar terrestrial atmosphere chain, changes in the Earth's atmospheric electrical characteristics due to solar variability, and the observed variations in atmospheric behavior that are influenced by solar variability were also examined.

Wu, S. T.↗

Ultraviolet Al III emission lines and the physics of the solar transition region

Two lines of the solar UV spectrum were identified as due to 3p-3d Al III transitions near 1612 A; the ratios of these lines to the 3s-3p Al III doublet near 1855 A were found to be very sensitive to temperature. Thus, the temperatures of formation of the Al III lines could be determined by using one of the line ratios in two quiet sun regions, a coronal hole, and an active region. The results were found to be consistent with expectations based on the assumption of ionization equilibrium for Al III. It is suggested that S III lines near 1350 A and 1200 A may also serve as a temperature diagnostic.

Doschek, G. A.↗

Solar active region physical parameters inferred from a thermal cyclotron line and soft X-ray spectral lines

Simultaneous high-resolution observations of coronal loops were made at the 20-cm wavelength with the VLA and at soft X-ray wavelengths with the SMM FCS. The images obtained at both wavelengths have nearly identical sizes and ellipsoidal shapes, with the emission stretching between and across regions of opposite magnetic polarity in the underlying photosphere. The results indicate that the radiation at 20 cm and soft X-ray wavelengths originates from the same region, and that 20 cm maps can image X-ray coronal loops. The X-ray spectral lines were used to obtain values of electron temperature, T(e), of about 2.6 x 10 to the 6th K and electron density, N(e), of about 3.1 x 10 to the 9th/cu cm. These parameters were used to show that the layers emitting 20-cm radiation can be optically thick to either thermal bremsstrahlung or thermal gyroresonance radiation, depending upon unknown but plausible values of loop thickness, magnetic scale height, and magnetic field strength.

Lang, Kenneth R.↗