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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO 2 , GeO 2 , CeO 2 , TiO 2 , HfO 2 , SnO 2 , ZnO and ZrO 2 ) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Photovoltaic System Modeling: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from photovoltaic systems. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify uncertainty in the output of each model using empirical distributions of each model’s residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampling these distributions to obtain an empirical distribution of a PV system’s output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power. Our analysis considers a notional PV system comprising an array of FirstSolar FS-387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that uncertainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Workshop on the Initialization of High-Resolution Earth System Models

From weather to climate timescales, weeks to decades, societal needs require detailed predictions of the atmosphere, ocean, and land-surface to facilitate informed planning. Central to this scientific endeavor is the ability to accurately initialize the earth system models (ESMs), since frequently the skill in forecasts, predictions, and projections depends on the quality of the initialization. However, initialization of high-resolution ESMs remains an outstanding challenge, particularly for the climate modeling community where initialization has received relatively less attention and where longer-term information is needed. This need, after a review of previous workshop outcomes, led the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to host a workshop that focused exclusively on the opportunities that data assimilation (DA) and, specifically, coupled data assimilation (CDA) might provide to the ESM enterprise with particular attention toward initialization. The workshop was held April 9-10, 2018, at the Rockville Hilton in Rockville, Maryland, with 41 participants. It was composed of seven sessions, each with a distinct topical theme that related to the broad challenge of initializing high-resolution ESMs. The first session was used to frame the workshop challenge. Two of the sessions (2 and 7) focused the current state of the art of CDA within laboratory and operational centers at both the short-term, subseasonal and long-term, climate time scales. Three of the sessions (3, 4, and 5) addressed new algorithmic approaches to CDA at high resolution. Session 6 focused on the computational science solutions for the management of large input/output streams required to carry out the assimilation procedure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Important ice processes are missed by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Southern Ocean mixed–phase clouds: Bridging SOCRATES observations to model developments

Global climate models (GCMs) are challenged by difficulties in simulating cloud phase and cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean (SO). Some of the new generation GCMs predict too much liquid and too little ice in mixed-phase clouds. This misrepresentation of cloud phase in GCMs results in weaker negative cloud feedback over the SO and a higher climate sensitivity. Based on a model comparison with observational data obtained during the Southern Ocean Cloud Radiation and Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), this study addresses a key uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) related to cloud phase, namely ice formation in pristine remote SO clouds. It is found that sea spray organic aerosols (SSOA) are the most important type of ice nucleating particles (INPs) over the SO with concentrations one order of magnitude higher than those of dust INPs based on measurements and CESM2 simulations. Secondary ice production (SIP) which includes riming splintering, rain droplet shattering, and ice-ice collisional fragmentation as implemented in CESM2 is the dominant ice production process in moderately cold clouds with cloud temperatures greater than –20°C. SIP enhances the in-cloud ice number concentrations (Ni) by 1-3 orders of magnitude and predicts more mixed-phase (with percentage occurrence increased from 15% to 21%), in better agreement with the observations. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accurately representing cloud phase over the pristine remote SO by considering the ice nucleation of SSOA and SIP processes, which are currently missing in most GCM cloud microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 2: Stratospheric and free-tropospheric response

The paper constitutes Part 2 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) at various single latitudes in the tropics, as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models – CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0, and GISS-E2.1-G. Building on Part 1 (Visioni et al., 2023) we demonstrate the role of biases in the climatological circulation and specific aspects of the model microphysics in driving the inter-model differences in the simulated sulfate distributions. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface SAI responses discussed in Part 1. We show that the differences in the aerosol spatial distribution can be explained by the significantly faster shallow branches of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in CESM2, a relatively isolated tropical pipe and older tropical age of air in UKESM, and smaller aerosol sizes and relatively stronger horizontal mixing (thus very young stratospheric age of air) in the two GISS versions used. We also find a large spread in the magnitudes of the tropical lower-stratospheric warming amongst the models, driven by microphysical, chemical, and dynamical differences. These lead to large differences in stratospheric water vapor responses, with significant increases in stratospheric water vapor under SAI in CESM2 and GISS that were largely not reproduced in UKESM. For ozone, good agreement was found in the tropical stratosphere amongst the models with more complex microphysics, with lower stratospheric ozone changes consistent with the SAI-induced modulation of the large-scale circulation and the resulting changes in transport. In contrast, we find a large inter-model spread in the Antarctic ozone responses that can largely be explained by the differences in the simulated latitudinal distributions of aerosols as well as the degree of implementation of heterogeneous halogen chemistry on sulfate in the models. The use of GISS runs with bulk microphysics demonstrates the importance of more detailed treatment of aerosol processes, with contrastingly different stratospheric SAI responses to the models using the two-moment aerosol treatment; however, some problems in halogen chemistry in GISS are also identified that require further attention. Overall, our results contribute to an increased understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms as well as identifying and narrowing the uncertainty in model projections of climate impacts from SAI.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pd3Ag(111) as a Model System for Hydrogen Separation Membranes: Combined Effects of CO Adsorption and Surface Termination on the Activation of Molecular Hydrogen

Abstract The co-adsorption of hydrogen and carbon monoxide on Pd 3 Ag(111) alloy surfaces has been studied as a model system for Pd-Ag alloys in membrane and catalysis applications using periodic density functional theory calculations (PW91-GGA). We explored the effects of Pd–Ag surface composition, since segregation of silver towards and away from the surface has been suggested to explain the experimentally observed changes in H 2 activation, CO inhibition and reactivity. We found that CO pre-adsorbed on the surface weakens the adsorption of H on Pd 3 Ag(111) alloy surfaces irrespective of whether the surface termination corresponds to the bulk Pd 3 Ag composition, or is purely Pd-terminated. A higher coverage of H with CO present is obtained for the Pd-terminated surface; this surface also exhibits a larger range of chemical potentials for co-adsorbed hydrogen and CO. The barrier for H 2 activation increases with increasing CO coverage, but the surface composition has the largest impact on H 2 activation at intermediate CO coverage. The results imply that Pd-based membranes with typically ~ 23 wt% Ag are less prone to CO poisoning if the surface becomes Pd-terminated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

ENSO Diversity and the Simulation of Its Teleconnections to Winter Precipitation Extremes Over the US in High Resolution Earth System Models

Abstract Accounting for the diversity in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s spatial pattern, with the novel ENSO longitudinal index (ELI), we evaluate the simulation of its teleconnections to US winter precipitation extremes by seven global high‐resolution (HR) Earth System Models (ESM). Six (four) HR ESMs simulate the observed increase in precipitation extremes over Southwest US (Southeast US) during ELI‐defined El Niño events better than their low‐resolution counterparts, which are low‐biased. The stronger ENSO‐dependence over the Southwest US and Southeast US in those models is associated with an improved simulation of moisture flux into the regions and/or storm track activity there. HR ESMs, however, generally overestimate the increase in precipitation extremes over the Pacific‐Northwest during La Niña events. Model bias there is associated with bias in moisture transport into the region during La Niña events, which is amplified by the enhanced vertical mass fluxes in HR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward Energy-Efficient HPC: Insights from Power Profiling a Cloud-Resolving Earth System Model

Power is a fundamental constraint as supercomputing advances to exascale. Efficient operation within strict power budgets requires application-aware power management based on a detailed understanding of application-level power behavior. This work analyzes the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere component, SCREAM, on Perlmutter (NERSC) and Frontier (OLCF). We characterize power variation across inputs, concurrency levels, and power caps, evaluate the energy impact of code optimizations, and attribute energy within the code using a newly developed GPU energy model. Results show that SCREAM’s peak power remains stable during its core execution phase and decreases gradually as concurrency increases. Power capping experiments reveal a performance–energy "sweet spot". On Perlmutter, limiting GPU power to 50% of thermal design power (TDP) achieves up to 15% energy savings with a 7% performance penalty. On Frontier, a 40% TDP cap yields up to 10% energy savings with less than 10% performance loss. Code optimizations reduce SCREAM energy by shortening run time without increasing power. Modeling reveals a critical insight: data movement accounts for approximately 70% of SCREAM’s GPU energy. This fundamentally shifts the optimization focus from FLOPS to data transfer reduction for this class of applications, offering the most impactful strategy for improving energy efficiency. This work establishes a foundation for practical, application-aware power management at exascale.

Zhao, Zhengji [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic System Models for Informing Licensing and Safeguards Investigations of Molten Salt Reactors

Fluid-fueled molten salt nuclear reactors (MSRs) have recently gained significant interest. As with all reactors, modeling and simulation are key factors for advanced reactor design and licensing and will be required for the deployment of MSRs. However, there are significant gaps between simulation capabilities and system behavior for MSRs. This paper presents a system model of an MSR based on the Molten Salt Demonstration Reactor. The model includes important physics specific to MSRs, such as fission product and tritium transport, as well as reactivity feedback.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Description and evaluation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2)

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), version 5, is now coupled to extensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, called CAM5-chem, and is available in addition to CAM4-chem in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2. The main focus of this paper is to compare the performance of configurations with internally derived "free running" (FR) meteorology and "specified dynamics" (SD) against observations from surface, aircraft, and satellite, as well as understand the origin of the identified differences. We focus on the representation of aerosols and chemistry. All model configurations reproduce tropospheric ozone for most regions based on in situ and satellite observations. However, shortcomings exist in the representation of ozone precursors and aerosols. Tropospheric ozone in all model configurations agrees for the most part with ozonesondes and satellite observations in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere within the variability of the observations. Southern hemispheric tropospheric ozone is consistently underestimated by up to 25%. Differences in convection and stratosphere to troposphere exchange processes are mostly responsible for differences in ozone in the different model configurations. Carbon monoxide (CO) and other volatile organic compounds are largely underestimated in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes based on satellite and aircraft observations. Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are biased low in the free tropical troposphere, whereas peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is overestimated in particular in high northern latitudes. The present-day methane lifetime estimates are compared among the different model configurations. These range between 7.8 years in the SD configuration of CAM5-chem and 8.8 years in the FR configuration of CAM4-chem and are therefore underestimated compared to observational estimations. We find that differences in tropospheric aerosol surface area between CAM4 and CAM5 play an important role in controlling the burden of the tropical tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH), which causes differences in tropical methane lifetime of about half a year between CAM4-chem and CAM5-chem. In addition, different distributions of NO x from lightning explain about half of the difference between SD and FR model versions in both CAM4-chem and CAM5-chem. Remaining differences in the tropical OH burden are due to enhanced tropical ozone burden in SD configurations compared to the FR versions, which are not only caused by differences in chemical production or loss but also by transport and mixing. For future studies, we recommend the use of CAM5-chem configurations, due to improved aerosol description and inclusion of aerosol–cloud interactions. However, smaller tropospheric surface area density in the current version of CAM5-chem compared to CAM4-chem results in larger oxidizing capacity in the troposphere and therefore a shorter methane lifetime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties

There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.

energy economics↗
DOE OSTI2017

Investigating the Direct Meltwater Effect in Terrestrial Oxygen-Isotope Paleoclimate Records Using an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

Variations in terrestrial oxygen-isotope reconstructions from ice cores and speleothems have been primarily attributed to climatic changes of surface air temperature, precipitation amount, or atmospheric circulation. In this work, we demonstrate with the fully coupled isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model an additional process contributing to the oxygen-isotope variations during glacial meltwater events. This process, termed “the direct meltwater effect,” involves propagating large amounts of isotopically depleted meltwater throughout the hydrological cycle and is independent of climatic changes. We find that the direct meltwater effect can make up 15–35% of the δ 18 O signals in precipitation over Greenland and eastern Brazil for large freshwater forcings (0.25–0.50 sverdrup (10 6 m 3 /s)). Model simulations further demonstrate that the direct meltwater effect increases with the magnitude and duration of the freshwater forcing and is sensitive to both the location and shape of the meltwater. These new modeling results have important implications for past climate interpretations of δ 18 O.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?

Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2013

Aerosol–climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model – NorESM1-M

The objective of this study is to document and evaluate recent changes and updates to the module for aerosols and aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in the atmospheric module CAM4-Oslo of the core version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), NorESM1-M. Particular attention is paid to the role of natural organics, sea salt, and mineral dust in determining the gross aerosol properties as well as the anthropogenic contribution to these properties and the associated direct and indirect radiative forcing. The aerosol module is extended from earlier versions that have been published, and includes life-cycling of sea salt, mineral dust, particulate sulphate, black carbon, and primary and secondary organics. The impacts of most of the numerous changes since previous versions are thoroughly explored by sensitivity experiments. The most important changes are: modified prognostic sea salt emissions; updated treatment of precipitation scavenging and gravitational settling; inclusion of biogenic primary organics and methane sulphonic acid (MSA) from oceans; almost doubled production of land-based biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOA); and increased ratio of organic matter to organic carbon (OM/OC) for biomass burning aerosols from 1.4 to 2.6. Compared with in situ measurements and remotely sensed data, the new treatments of sea salt and dust aerosols give smaller biases in near-surface mass concentrations and aerosol optical depth than in the earlier model version. The model biases for mass concentrations are approximately unchanged for sulphate and BC. The enhanced levels of modeled OM yield improved overall statistics, even though OM is still underestimated in Europe and overestimated in North America. The global anthropogenic aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) at the top of the atmosphere has changed from a small positive value to -0.08 W m-2 in CAM4-Oslo. The sensitivity tests suggest that this change can be attributed to the new treatment of biomass burning aerosols and gravitational settling. Although it has not been a goal in this study, the new DRF estimate is closer both to the median model estimate from the AeroCom intercomparison and the best estimate in IPCC AR4. Estimated DRF at the ground surface has increased by ca. 60%, to -1.89 W m-2. We show that this can be explained by new emission data and omitted mixing of constituents between updrafts and downdrafts in convective clouds. The increased abundance of natural OM and the introduction of a cloud droplet spectral dispersion formulation are the most important contributions to a considerably decreased estimate of the indirect radiative forcing (IndRF). The IndRF is also found to be sensitive to assumptions about the coating of insoluble aerosols by sulphate and OM. The IndRF of -1.2 W m-2, which is closer to the IPCC AR4 estimates than the previous estimate of -1.9 W m-2, has thus been obtained without imposing unrealistic artificial lower bounds on cloud droplet number concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗