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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Process Image Analysis using Big Data, Machine Learning, and Computer Vision

The development of algorithms for machine learning and data analysis for the 3013 MIS corrosion surveillance program is a collaborative effort by SRNL, USC and GT. For corrosion detection, LCM image data is extracted from large binary files, with software written to convert the data to physical attributes (i.e. height, color and grayscale values; all as functions of a location in a plane projection). The user interface for the software permits selective downloading of binary data and interrogation of attributes. User input thresholds are used to flag attributes of interest. Machine learning algorithms, developed for this application, are used to determine whether the features are the result of corrosion. To address the fundamental mechanisms of corrosion, machine learning algorithms are being developed to derive interatomic potential force-fields from ab-initio DFT calculations. The goal is to apply molecular modeling on a large enough scale to guide the design of resistant materials.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

AIACHNE's contribution for Nuclear Energy Agency Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation Subgroup 50

The AIACHNE (AI/ML Informed cAlifornium CHi Nuclear data Experiment) project aims at designing an experiment for the 252 Cf Prompt Fission Neutron Spectrum (PFNS) that explores systematic biases in an experimental database retrieved from the EXFOR databases. To that end, machine learning (ML) methods were applied to pint-point measurement features likely related to bia. From that information, we selected a feature that should be explored by the AIACHNE experiment. Measurement features are metadata encapsulating all pertinent information about the physical measurement and analysis techniques. Examples are, for instance, what neutron and fission detectors were used for the physical metadata, and what background reduction techniques were employed for analysis techniques. Such metadata were retrieved both from EXFOR entries as well as the literature of data sets described in detail in Ref. [2]. The prerequisite for applying machine learning techniques is casting the metadata into a format that can be parsed by the algorithm. This step might seem trivial but requires to find a unique language where metadata that carry the same physics meaning across several experiments must have the same identifier. One example is, for instance, the neutron detector. As seen in Figure 1, the machine learning code identified the use of 6 Li detectors as being related to bias in some datasets of the AIACHNE 252 Cf PFNS experimental database. In fact, here are several experiments that used neutron detectors containing 6Li in the database, for instance for the example below. EXFOR format has a unique keywords describing detectors such as “SCIN” or “GLASD”. One may think that these keywords are already sufficient descriptors for ML to uniquely find an issue. However, “SCIN” (used for [3, 4]) and “GLASD” (used for [5]) fail to inform the algorithm what is the active material in the detector. And, the key common issue leading to bias in 252 Cf related to neutron detectors is not whether it is a glass detector or a scintillator. No, the issue is that 6 Li was within both detector types and that even small mistakes in the detector response functions around approximately 200 keV are amplified by the 6 Li(n,α) resonance there leading to bias in data as highlighted in Fig. 1 and Ref. [1]. Hence, the features describing the neutron detector must call out the active material in the detector, rather than the existing EXFOR detector keyword, that the ML algorithm can find physically meaningful features related to bias. The AIACHNE team used a precursor of the WPEC (Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation) SG(Subgroup)-50 format to store the metadata for the ML analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review of Quantum Computing Technologies in Power System Optimization

As modern power grids increasingly integrate variable renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and energy storage systems, classical optimization techniques are facing unprecedented challenges. This review examines the emerging application of quantum computing to overcome these challenges in power system optimization, including optimal power flow (OPF), unit commitment (UC), economic dispatch (ED), and intelligent switching and topology optimization (IS-TO). Recent research has introduced various quantum methodologies—such as gate-based, annealing-based, variational algorithms, and quantum-inspired algorithms—to address the combinatorial complexity inherent in grid reconfiguration and energy management. The review summaries the quantum algorithms, quantum devices and the power system test cases, highlighting hybrid quantum–classical strategies that leverage the complementary strengths of both paradigms. Some quantum advantages have been observed, including theoretical speedup, accurate simulation results, scalable qubit usage, efficient QUBO mapping. In particular, the review emphasizes the importance of integrating quantum optimization techniques with classical control frameworks, these hybrid approaches demonstrate the potential to improve real-time grid management and operational reliability. A significant portion of the analysis is devoted to the practical limitations of current quantum devices. Present-day quantum hardware, operating in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era, remains highly sensitive to noise and limited in qubit connectivity, which constrains the scale and accuracy of implemented algorithms. The review delves into specific challenges such as the need for qubit-efficient encoding techniques and error mitigation strategies that are critical for handling real-world grid optimization problems. In addition, the work draws attention to the performance discrepancies between theoretical quantum speedups and experimental validations, underscoring the importance of rigorous benchmark studies using representative power grid test cases. In summary, this review highlights both the promise and limitations of quantum computing for power system optimization. It provides a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art technologies, categorizes recent advancements in algorithm design, and discusses practical considerations for implementation, and serves as an informative resource on current research. Future research directions include developing robust hybrid frameworks, advancing qubit-efficient formulations, and scaling up experimental demonstrations to confirm the theoretical advantages of quantum methods in large-scale power system operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Veridical data science

Building and expanding on principles of statistics, machine learning, and scientific inquiry, we propose the predictability, computability, and stability (PCS) framework for veridical data science. Our framework, composed of both a workflow and documentation, aims to provide responsible, reliable, reproducible, and transparent results across the data science life cycle. The PCS workflow uses predictability as a reality check and considers the importance of computation in data collection/storage and algorithm design. It augments predictability and computability with an overarching stability principle. Stability expands on statistical uncertainty considerations to assess how human judgment calls impact data results through data and model/algorithm perturbations. As part of the PCS workflow, we develop PCS inference procedures, namely PCS perturbation intervals and PCS hypothesis testing, to investigate the stability of data results relative to problem formulation, data cleaning, modeling decisions, and interpretations. We illustrate PCS inference through neuroscience and genomics projects of our own and others. Moreover, we demonstrate its favorable performance over existing methods in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in high-dimensional, sparse linear model simulations, including a wide range of misspecified models. Finally, we propose PCS documentation based on R Markdown or Jupyter Notebook, with publicly available, reproducible codes and narratives to back up human choices made throughout an analysis. The PCS workflow and documentation are demonstrated in a genomics case study available on Zenodo.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of a grey-box refrigerated case model in EnergyPlus via Python plugin

Commercial buildings, in particular grocery stores (due mainly to their large refrigeration load), provide opportunities for energy cost reductions. Grocery stores could offer substantial load flexibility to the power grid through participation in demand response programs because of their usage patterns and relatively high energy intensity. This load flexibility could come from modifying the control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, refrigeration systems, or both. Although estimation of the HVAC system’s load flexibility potential is relatively targeted in the literature, estimating load flexibility of refrigeration systems is nascent and has been a challenge, in part because of the lack of proper simulation tools that capture the dynamics in the refrigeration cases. The existing refrigerated case model within EnergyPlus, a whole building energy simulation program, assumes a constant case temperature throughout the simulation period and does not explicitly model the cycling of the compressor serving the refrigerated case. In addition, it does not encompass modeling of temperatures of the product inside the refrigerated case. This difference between modeled and actual operation can be a barrier to the development of demand control algorithm and accurate analysis of load flexibility potential. In this paper, we present a grey-box model for modeling refrigerated cases in grocery stores, which include medium temperature and low temperature. Four cases are modeled; two are low-temperature closed cases and two are medium-temperature cases with one closed and one open. Data from an experimental facility are used to train and test the models. Results demonstrate the efficacy of the grey-box models in predicting the temperatures. This model is integrated into EnergyPlus to capture the dynamic effects of case temperature on the environment and enhance the calculation of sensible and latent heat exchange with the environment (case credits). These enhancements can be leveraged more broadly to model advanced refrigeration controls such as defrost, develop and test unique algorithms that could affect refrigeration interactions with HVAC, and refine store design for any commercial building with refrigeration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

MADLens, a python package for fast and differentiable non-Gaussian lensing simulations

Here, we present MADLens a python package for producing non-Gaussian lensing convergence maps at arbitrary source redshifts with unprecedented precision. MADLens is designed to achieve high accuracy while keeping computational costs as low as possible. A MADLens simulation with only particles produces convergence maps whose power agrees with theoretical lensing power spectra up to within the accuracy limits of HaloFit. This is made possible by a combination of a highly parallelizable particle-mesh algorithm, a sub-evolution scheme in the lensing projection, and a machine-learning inspired sharpening step. Further, MADLens is fully differentiable with respect to the initial conditions of the underlying particle-mesh simulations and a number of cosmological parameters. These properties allow MADLens to be used as a forward model in Bayesian inference algorithms that require optimization or derivative-aided sampling. Another use case for MADLens is the production of large, high resolution simulation sets as they are required for training novel deep-learning-based lensing analysis tools. We make the MADLens package publicly available under a Creative Commons License

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Final Technical Report - Rapid Surface Microanalysis using a Low Temperature Plasma

This project focused on improving our current understanding and scientific knowledge in the area of plasma-surface interactions and plasma assisted material synthesis related to advanced microelectronics and nanotechnology. Current challenges include: controlling the interaction of Low Temperature Plasma (LTP) with a single layer of atoms to manufacture integrated circuits, continued miniaturization of integrated circuits, LTP processing of material surfaces and thin films to enable industrial scale fabrication of advanced microelectronics, synthesis of new materials, nanomaterials, nanotubes, and complex materials, Technology developed in this subtopic is of value to either (i) enable scans of surfaces (~1 sq. cm area) using various microscopies (electron, optical, other) at high resolution (micron or sub-micron resolution) rapidly (hours or days rather than years to complete a high-resolution scan of such a large surface area), or (ii) enable scans of surfaces (~1 sq. cm area) using various microscopies (electron, optical, other) at relatively low resolution rapidly, then apply algorithms to select spots for micron-scale imaging. Sputtering occurs when particles of a solid material are ejected from its surface by energetic particles from a plasma. While the degradation of the solid material and the subsequent deposition of the ejected material onto vulnerable surfaces are the usual subjects of sputtering studies, plasma science has yet to be combined with sputtering to create new diagnostics devices and systems. Small changes in the design of the plasma discharge device make it possible to create broad plasma beams for rapid scanning or small plasma beams to obtain the distribution of ejected elements with micron resolution. In the high-resolution use, the ion flux is extracted from the gas-discharge plasma and focused by a spherical emission surface to micron sizes onto the target specimen, providing very local sputtering and local elemental analysis. We call this “self-focusing”. The radiation from the excited and ionized sputtered atoms is recorded by a spectrometer through a window and fiberglass cable and analyzed with standard software packages used for optical glow discharge spectroscopy. Computer simulations of beam formation were used to verify and optimize the designs to be tested. A prototype was designed, constructed, and used to start experiments of beam formation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning reveals factors that control ion mobility in anti-perovskite solid electrolytes

Solid-state batteries are projected to exhibit improved energy densities and safety compared to liquid-electrolyte-based systems. Consequently, the development of solid electrolytes that can conduct cations at rates comparable to that of liquid electrolytes is an active area of research. To facilitate this search it is desirable to understand the chemical and structural features that control ion transport through a crystalline lattice. Here, machine learning (ML) is used to identify features that influence ion mobility in solids, quantify the relative importance of those features, and demonstrate how the variation of individual features alters ion mobility. Adopting the anti-perovskite lattice as a model system, ML algorithms were trained to predict migration barriers from a data set containing hundreds of barriers calculated using density functional theory. In this study, more than 10 6 feature sets of non-redundant descriptors were evaluated for their ability to predict migration barriers. The present analysis correctly reiterates the importance of several features that are known to influence mobility – for example, anion polarizability – but also identifies others whose importance is not widely recognized. Lattice properties such as hopping distance and channel width exhibit the greatest influence on cation mobility. Individual conditional expectation analyses performed on these features shows that barriers decrease as hopping distance decreases and as channel width increases. The defect formation energy – which is commonly associated with the concentration of defects, but not with their mobility – is identified as an important feature for interstitial migration. In sum, this analysis aids in the design of optimal solid electrolytes by simplifying the multi-dimensional design space to a sub-set of properties that are the most important.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Analysis of Recuperated Joule-Brayton Pumped Thermal Energy Storage

This article describes a techno-economic model for pumped thermal energy storage systems based on recuperated Joule-Brayton cycles and two-tank liquid storage. Models have been developed for each component, with particular emphasis on the heat exchangers. Economic metrics such as the power and energy capital costs (i.e., per-kW and per-kWh capacity) and levelized cost of storage are evaluated by gathering numerous cost correlations from the literature, thereby enabling estimates of uncertainty. It is found that the use of heat exchangers with effectivenesses up to 0.95 is economically worthwhile, but higher values lead to rapidly escalating component size and system cost. Several hot storage fluids are considered; those operating at the highest temperatures (chloride salts) improve the round-trip efficiency but the benefit is marginal and may not warrant the additional material costs and risk when compared to lower-temperature nitrate salts. Cost-efficiency trade-offs are explored using a multi-objective optimization algorithm, yielding optimal designs with round-trip efficiencies in the range 59-72% and corresponding levelized storage costs of 0.12 0.03 and 0.38 0.10 $/kWhe. Lifetime costs are competitive with lithium-ion batteries for discharging durations greater than 6 h under current scenarios.

Carnot battery↗
DOE OSTI2020

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of degradation in residential battery energy storage systems for rate-based use-cases

This article examines the impact of residential battery energy storage (BES) systems' operational modes on the life (i.e. usable energy capacity) of the battery under several climatic conditions and battery chemistries. The sharp increase in residential BES installations has been a result of decreasing costs of batteries, increase in rate structures motivated applications such as solar self-consumption and time-of-use energy management, and customers purchasing these systems for backup power. While these different modes of operations provide a combination of increased bill savings, reliability of supply, and energy sustainability to the customer, their operational characteristics vary significantly between use-cases. Functional life of BES systems is known to be strongly dependent on their operating conditions. In this article, we analyze the operation of residential BES systems under different rate-based use-cases, for different battery chemistries and cell designs, and under different environmental conditions. This is conducted by simulating the control of BES operations using rate-based cycling algorithms and analyzing the prognosis of multiple battery lifetime models that consider complex nonlinear dependencies of operational stress factors such as state-of-charge, depth-of-discharge, and temperature on degradation. Significant variations in battery life are observed owing to the differences in characteristics of the uses-cases coupled with environmental conditions and battery chemistries. Such differences lead to the conclusion that choice of residential BES technologies and chemistries should account for their intended use-cases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trigger Detection for the sPHENIX Experiment via Bipartite Graph Networks with Set Transformer

Trigger (interesting events) detection is crucial to high-energy and nuclear physics experiments because it improves data acquisition efficiency. It also plays a vital role in facilitating the downstream offline data analysis process. The sPHENIX detector, located at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider in Brookhaven National Laboratory, is one of the largest nuclear physics experiments on a world scale and is optimized to detect physics processes involving charm and beauty quarks. Furthermore, these particles are produced in collisions involving two proton beams, two gold nuclei beams, or a combination of the two and give critical insights into the formation of the early universe. This paper presents a model architecture for trigger detection with geometric information from two fast silicon detectors. Transverse momentum is introduced as an intermediate feature from physics heuristics. We also prove its importance through our training experiments. Each event consists of tracks and can be viewed as a graph. A bipartite graph neural network is integrated with the attention mechanism to design a binary classification model. Compared with the state-of-the-art algorithm for trigger detection, our model is parsimonious and increases the accuracy and the AUC score by more than 15%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for design principles for single atom catalysts towards electrochemical reactions

Machine learning (ML) integrated density functional theory (DFT) calculations have recently been used to accelerate the design and discovery of heterogeneous catalysts such as single atom catalysts (SACs) through the establishment of deep structure–activity relationships. Here, this review provides recent progress in the ML-aided rational design of heterogeneous catalysts with the focus on SACs in terms of structure–activity relationships, feature importance analysis, high-throughput screening, stability, and metal–support interactions for electrochemistry. Support vector machine (SVM), random forest regression (RFR), and deep neural networks (DNN) along with atomic properties are mainly used for the design of SACs. The ML results have shown that the number of electrons in the d orbital, oxide formation enthalpy, ionization energy, Bader charge, d-band center, and enthalpy of vaporization are mainly the most important parameters for the defining of the structure–activity relationships for electrochemistry. However, the black-box nature of ML techniques occasionally makes a physical interpretation of descriptors, such as the Bader charge, d-band center, and enthalpy of vaporization, non-trivial. At the current stage, ML application is limited by the lack of a large and high-quality database. Future prospects for the development of a large database and a generalized ML algorithm for SAC design are discussed to give insights for further studies in this field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

HPDR: High-Performance Portable Scientific Data Reduction Framework

The rapid growth in scientific data generation is outpacing advancements in computing systems necessary for efficient storage, transfer, and analysis, particularly in the context of exascale computing. With the deployment of first-generation exascale computing systems and next-generation experimental facilities, this gap is widening and necessitates effective data reduction techniques to manage enormous data volumes. Over the past decade, various data reduction methods, including lossless compression, error-controlled lossy compression, and data refactoring, have been developed to accelerate I/O in scientific workflows. Despite significant reductions in data volume, these methods introduce considerable computational overhead, which can become the new bottleneck in data processing. To mitigate this, GPU-accelerated data reduction algorithms have been introduced. However, challenges remain in their integration into exascale workflows, including limited portability across different GPU architectures, substantial memory transfer overhead, and reduced scalability on dense multi-GPU systems. To address these challenges, we propose HPDR, a high-performance and portable data reduction framework. HPDR is designed to enable the execution of state-of-the-art reduction algorithms across diverse processor architectures while reducing memory transfer overhead to 2.3 % of the original, resulting in up to 3.5× faster throughput compared to existing solutions. It also achieves up to 96% of the theoretical speedup in multi-GPU settings. In addition, evaluations on accelerating I/O operations at scale up to 1,024 nodes of the Frontier supercomputer demonstrate that HPDR can achieve up to 103 TB/s reduction throughput, providing up to 4× acceleration in parallel I/O performance compared to existing data reduction routines. This work highlights the potential of HPDR to significantly enhance data reduction efficiency in exascale computing environments.

Chen, Jieyang [University of Oregon]↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation and power quality analysis of a Loose-Coupled bipolar DC microgrid in an office building

With distributed generation and battery storage technologies thriving in microgrids, the use of direct current (DC) microgrids in the building sector offers multiple advantages in energy efficiency and power quality compared with alternating current (AC) systems. This study developed a new concept of a loose-coupled bipolar DC building power system. In this work, the concept was used to design a real-world office building in Shenzhen, China. A power system model was developed to study the stability and control of the DC power system and to verify DC power quality. The design and modeling of the DC power control system is discussed in detail. The study developed a few common fault scenarios in DC building microgrids that were simulated in the MATLAB-Simulink environment to validate the design of a loose-coupled bipolar DC system. The results indicate that the proposed loose-coupled bipolar DC system schema, when implemented with proper control algorithms, can achieve good fault-tolerant performance with reliable power quality, even during disruptive system events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep residual networks for crystallography trained on synthetic data

The use of artificial intelligence to process diffraction images is challenged by the need to assemble large and precisely designed training data sets. To address this, a codebase called Resonet was developed for synthesizing diffraction data and training residual neural networks on these data. Here, two per-pattern capabilities of Resonet are demonstrated: (i) interpretation of crystal resolution and (ii) identification of overlapping lattices. Resonet was tested across a compilation of diffraction images from synchrotron experiments and X-ray free-electron laser experiments. Crucially, these models readily execute on graphics processing units and can thus significantly outperform conventional algorithms. While Resonet is currently utilized to provide real-time feedback for macromolecular crystallography users at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource, its simple Python-based interface makes it easy to embed in other processing frameworks. This work highlights the utility of physics-based simulation for training deep neural networks and lays the groundwork for the development of additional models to enhance diffraction collection and analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of Algorithms for Using Particle Morphology in Pre-Detonation Nuclear Forensics

A major goal in pre-detonation nuclear forensics is to infer the processing conditions and/or facility type that produced radiological material. This review paper focuses on analyses of particle size, shape, texture (“morphology”) signatures that could provide information on the provenance of interdicted materials. For example, uranium ore concentrates (UOC or yellowcake) include ammonium diuranate (ADU), ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC), sodium diuranate (SDU), magnesium diuranate (MDU), and others, each prepared using different salts to precipitate U from solution. Once precipitated, UOCs are often dried and calcined to remove adsorbed water. The products can be allowed to react further, forming uranium oxides UO3, U3O8, or UO2 powders, whose surface morphology can be indicative of precipitation and/or calcination conditions used in their production. This review paper describes statistical issues and approaches in using quantitative analyses of measurements such as particle size and shape to infer production conditions. Statistical topics include multivariate t tests (Hotelling’s T 2 ), design of experiments, and several machine learning (ML) options including decision trees, learning vector quantization neural networks, mixture discriminant analysis, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC is emphasized as an attractive option to include the effects of model uncertainty in the selected and fitted forward model used for inferring processing conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗