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At least 487 records · Page 27

Stratospheric dynamics

A global circulation model is being used to study the dynamical behavior of stratospheric planetary waves (waves having horizontal wavelengths of tens of thousands of kilometers) forced by growing cyclonic disturbances of intermediate scale, typically with wavelengths of a few thousand kilometers, which occur in the troposphere. Planetary scale waves are the dominant waves in the stratosphere, and are important for understanding the distribution of atmospheric trace constituents. Planetary wave forcing by intermediate scale tropospheric cyclonic disturbances is important for producing eastward travelling planetary waves of the sort which are prominent in the Southern Hemisphere during winter. The same global circulation model is also being used to simulate and understand the rate of dispersion and possible stratospheric climatic feedbacks of the El Chichon volcanic aerosol cloud. By comparing the results of the model calculation with an established data set now in existence for the volcanic cloud spatial and temporal distribution, stratospheric transport processes will be better understood, and the extent to which the cloud modified stratospheric wind and temperature fields can be assessed.

Young, Richard E.↗

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗

Seasonal variation of surface and atmospheric cloud radiative forcing over the globe derived from satellite data

Global distributions of surface and atmospheric cloud radiative forcing parameters have been derived using parameterized radiation models with satellite meteorological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, and directly measured top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Specifically, shortwave, longwave, and total cloud forcing at the surface, and column-averaged values of longwave cloud forcing of the atmosphere were derived for the midseasonal months of April, July, and October 1985 and January 1986, covering a complete annual cycle. Seasonal variability is illustrated by comparing the results for July 1985 and January 1986, which represent the seasonal extremes. Surface shortwave cloud forcing is always negative, representing a cooling of the surface, with strongest cooling (-120 to -180 W/sq m) occurring over midlatitude storm tracks of the summer hemisphere. Surface longwave cloud forcing is always positive, representing a warming of the surface, with strongest warming (60 to 75 W/sq m) occurring over storm tracks of the winter hemisphere. Zonal averages show the entire summer hemisphere dominated by shortwave cooling, the middle and high latitudes of the winter hemisphere dominated by longwave warming, and a broad zone of transition in between. The globally averaged total cloud forcing amounts to a cooling throughout the year, ranging from a low of about -12 W/sq m for July 1985 to a high of about -25 W/sq m for January 1986. The longwave cloud forcing of the atmosphere shows a strong warming over deep convective regions in the tropics and a moderate cooling outside the tropics, amounting to a weak cooling (-2 to -5 W/sq m) in the global average. Comparisons of the results with general circulation model simulations show broad qualitative agreement regarding the locations of prominent warming and cooling regions. Quantitative comparisons, on the other hand, show significant differences between the magnitudes of warming and cooling in these regions. Most of the larger differences can be attributed to known deficiences of the general circulation model simulations. Comparisons with satellite-derived results of other investigators show much better agreement.

Gupta, Shashi K.↗

Using TRMM Latent Heat as a Source to Estimate Convection Induced Gravity Wave Momentum Flux in the Lower Stratosphere

Due to a lack of observations, it is a big challenge to quantify the momentum flux transported from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere by gravity waves generated by convection. This limits our understanding of the dynamics of general circulation in the stratosphere and the realism of simulations of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. In the past decade, some general circulation models have linked the momentum flux to the latent heating from subgrid scale convective precipitation with some success. However, there is still a large uncertainty in the sources of subgrid scale convection in these models. This study applies the links between the momentum flux and convective latent heating directly to the convective precipitation derived from 16 years of TRMM precipitation radar observations in the tropics and subtropics. The total and directional momentum flux at 100 hPa are derived at individual convective pixels by using the TRMM Spectrum Latent Heating product and large-scale wind profiles from the ERA-Interim dataset. For the first time, we are able to estimate the geographical distribution of momentum flux at 100 hPa in tropics and subtropics from the observed convective sources. The diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variations of the derived momentum flux are presented and discussed. These results could provide a reference to validate the dynamic coupling between the tropical troposphere and the stratosphere in the general circulation models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Radiative Interactions in Tropical Cyclone Development under Realistic Boundary Conditions

Abstract The impact of radiative interactions on tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is investigated using a global, TC-permitting general circulation model (GCM) with realistic boundary conditions. In this model, synoptic-scale radiative interactions are suppressed by overwriting the model-generated atmospheric radiative cooling rates with their monthly varying climatological values. When radiative interactions are suppressed, the global TC frequency is significantly reduced, indicating that radiative interactions are a critical component of TC development even in the presence of spatially varying boundary conditions. The reduced TC activity is primarily due to a decrease in the frequency of pre-TC synoptic disturbances (“seeds”), whereas the likelihood that the seeds undergo cyclogenesis is less affected. When radiative interactions are suppressed, TC genesis shifts toward coastal regions, whereas TC lysis locations stay almost unchanged; together the distance between genesis and lysis is shortened, reducing TC duration. In a warmer climate, the magnitude of TC reduction from suppressing radiative interactions is diminished due to the larger contribution from latent heat release with increased sea surface temperatures. These results highlight the importance of radiative interactions in modulating the frequency and duration of TCs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

Adaptation to climate change through strategic integration of long fallow into cropping system in a dryland Mediterranean-type environment

The crop-growing region of Western Australia characterized by a Mediterranean-type climate is projected to become warmer and drier. Appropriate selection of crop sequences will be of importance to cope with these climatic changes for this largest grain-producing region of Australia. Through linking a widely used crop model (APSIM), 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with one Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP585) and economic analysis, we explored how the climate change would affect dryland wheat cropping and whether/how long fallow (the practice of leaving a field out of production for an entire growing season) could be integrated into wheat cropping system in Western Australia. The potential adaptation of long fallow into wheat system was assessed with four fixed rotations (fallow-wheat, fallow-wheat-wheat, fallow-wheat-wheat-wheat, and fallow-wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat) and four flexible sowing rule-based rotations (the land was fallowed if sowing rule was not met), compared with continuous wheat. The simulation results at four representing locations show that climate change would have negative impacts on both yield and economic return of continuous wheat cropping in Western Australia. Wheat after fallow out-yielded and out-profited wheat after wheat under future climate. But integrating fallow into wheat cropping systems with the above fixed rotations would lead to yield and economic loss. By contrast, cropping systems in which fallowing took place when sowing condition could not be met at a certain time would achieve comparable yield and economic return to continuous wheat, with wheat yield being only 5% less than continuous wheat and the gross margin being $12ha -1 more than continuous wheat averaged across locations. We highlight strategic integration of long fallow into cropping system in a dryland Mediterranean-type environment would have a great potential to cope with future climate change. These findings can be extended into other Mediterranean-type cropping regions in Australia and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Dependence of Simulated Convection on Domain Size in CRMs

Abstract We present a heuristic model to explain the suppression of deep convection in convection‐resolving models (CRMs) with a small number of grid columns, such as those used in super‐parameterized or multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) general circulation models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Domains with few grid columns require greater instability to sustain convection because they force a large convective fraction, driving strong compensating subsidence warming. Updraft dilution, which is stronger for reduced horizontal grid spacing, enhances this effect. Thus, suppression of deep convection in CRMs with few grid columns can be reduced by increasing grid spacing. Radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations using standalone CRM simulations with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) and using GCM‐coupled CRM simulations with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)‐MMF confirm the heuristic model results.

CRM↗

Winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model

The GLAS climate model is a general circulation model based on the primitive equations in sigma coordinates on a global domain in the presence of orography. The model incorporates parameterizations of the effects of radiation, convection, large scale latent heat release, turbulent and boundary layer fluxes, and ground hydrology. Winter and summer simulations were carried out with this model, and the resulting data are compared to observations.

Shukla, J.↗

Nonlinear influence of mesoscale land use on weather and climate

It is shown that the influence of mesoscale landscape spatial variability on the atmosphere must be parameterized or explicitly modeled in larger-scale atmospheric model simulations including general circulation models. The mesoscale fluxes of heat that result from this variability are shown to be of the same order of magnitude but with a different vertical structure than found for the turbulent fluxes. These conclusions are based on experiments in which no phase changes of water were permitted. To parameterize surface thermal inhomogeneities, the influence of landscape must be evaluated using spectral analysis or an equivalent procedure. To include the nonlinear contribution of each scale, numerical model simulations for the range of observed surface and overlying atmospheric conditions must be performed.

Pielke, R. A.↗

Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM: Sensitivity to convective parametrization

The sensitivity of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) General Circulation Model (UGCM) to two very different approaches to convective parametrization is described. Comparison is made between a Kuo scheme, which is constrained by large-scale moisture convergence, and a convective-adjustment scheme, which relaxes to observed thermodynamic states. Results from 360-day integrations with perpetual January conditions are used to describe the model's tropical time-mean climate and its variability. Both convection schemes give reasonable simulations of the time-mean climate, but the representation of the main modes of tropical variability is markedly different. The Kuo scheme has much weaker variance, confined to synoptic frequencies near 4 days, and a poor simulation of intraseasonal variability. In contrast, the convective-adjustment scheme has much more transient activity at all time-scales. The various aspects of the two schemes which might explain this difference are discussed. The particular closure on moisture convergence used in this version of the Kuo scheme is identified as being inappropriate.

Slingo, Julia↗

Modeling the Atmospheric Structure and Dynamics of the Martian Atmosphere

Models of the general circulation and climate system of Mars have reached a high level of maturity, but observations to validate them have lacked the kind of global and temporal coverage required. However, we are now on the verge of a new era in Mars exploration as Mars Global Surveyor, and the now enroute Mars Climate Orbiter, will provide daily global coverage of the atmosphere for two Mars years. In the coming years, data from these missions will test the predictions of general circulation models (GCM's) whose results have perhaps become too accepted as truth. This talk will review what GCM's tell us about Mars, what their weaknesses are, and what the latest results imply for their future. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Winter Storm Zones on Mars

Preferred regions of weather activity in Mars' winter middle latitudes-so called 'storm zones' are found in a general circulation model of Mars' atmospheric circulation. During northern winter, these storm zones occur in middle latitudes in the major planitia (low-relief regions) of the western and eastern hemisphere. In contrast, the highlands of the eastern hemisphere are mostly quiescent. Compared to Earth's storm zones where diabatic heating associated with land-sea thermal contrasts is crucial, orography on Mars is fundamental to the regionalization of weather activity. Future spacecraft missions aimed at assessing Mars' climate and its variability need to include such regions in observation strategies.

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗

Summary of Cumulus Parameterization Workshop

A workshop on cumulus parameterization took place at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from December 3-5, 2001. The major objectives of this workshop were (1) to review the problem of representation of moist processes in large-scale models (mesoscale models, Numerical Weather Prediction models and Atmospheric General Circulation Models), (2) to review the state-of-the-art in cumulus parameterization schemes, and (3) to discuss the need for future research and applications. There were a total of 31 presentations and about 100 participants from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and South Korea. The specific presentations and discussions during the workshop are summarized in this paper.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Global Cloud-Resolving Models

Global cloud-resolving models (GCRMs) are a new category of atmospheric global models designed to solve different flavors of the nonhydrostatic equations through the use of kilometer-scale global meshes. GCRMs make it possible to explicitly simulate deep convection, thereby avoiding the need for cumulus parameterization and allowing for clouds to be “resolved” by microphysical models responding to grid-scale forcing. GCRMs require high-resolution discretization over the globe, for which a variety of mesh structures have been proposed and employed. The first GCRM was constructed 15 years ago, and in recent years, other groups have also begun adopting this approach, enabling the first intercomparison studies of such models. Because conventional general circulation models (GCMs) suffer from large biases associated with cumulus parameterization, GCRMs are attractive tools for researchers studying global weather and climate. In this review, GCRMs are described, with some emphasis on their historical development and the associated literature documenting their use. The advantages of GCRMs are presented, and currently existing GCRMs are listed and described. Future prospects for GCRMs are also presented in the final section.

Satoh, Masaki↗

Thermosphere-ionosphere coupling - An experiment in interactive modeling

Using the NCAR thermosphere general circulation model, a series of controlled experiments is performed to investigate the interactive coupling between ionospheric plasma densities and thermospheric neutral winds. The interaction is accomplished by parameterizing the F layer peak height, h(m)F2, in an empirical ionospheric model in terms of the meridional wind, v(south), and by forcing the h(m)F2 and the v(south) parameters to remain mutually coupled in a dynamical calculation. It was found that mutual coupling between forcing and meridional wind is weak during the daytime when the F layer exhibits a broad vertical structure. At night, when the F2 layer is more localized, the neutral dynamical structure is dependent on whether forcing is significantly above or below the altitude (about 275-300 km) at which ion drag effectively competes with viscosity in the neutral momentum balance.

Forbes, Jeffrey M.↗