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NASA NTRS1992

Polar cloud and surface classification using AVHRR imagery - An intercomparison of methods

Six Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer local area coverage (AVHRR LAC) arctic scenes are classified into ten classes. Three different classifiers are examined: (1) the traditional stepwise discriminant analysis (SDA) method; (2) the feed-forward back-propagation (FFBP) neural network; and (3) the probabilistic neural network (PNN). More than 200 spectral and textural measures are computed. These are reduced to 20 features using sequential forward selection. Theoretical accuracy of the classifiers is determined using the bootstrap approach. Overall accuracy is 85.6 percent, 87.6 percent, and 87.0 percent for the SDA, FFBP, and PNN classifiers, respectively, with standard deviations of approximately 1 percent.

Welch, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Maximum a posteriori classification of multifrequency, multilook, synthetic aperture radar intensity data

We present a maximum a posteriori (MAP) classifier for classifying multifrequency, multilook, single polarization SAR intensity data into regions or ensembles of pixels of homogeneous and similar radar backscatter characteristics. A model for the prior joint distribution of the multifrequency SAR intensity data is combined with a Markov random field for representing the interactions between region labels to obtain an expression for the posterior distribution of the region labels given the multifrequency SAR observations. The maximization of the posterior distribution yields Bayes's optimum region labeling or classification of the SAR data or its MAP estimate. The performance of the MAP classifier is evaluated by using computer-simulated multilook SAR intensity data as a function of the parameters in the classification process. Multilook SAR intensity data are shown to yield higher classification accuracies than one-look SAR complex amplitude data. The MAP classifier is extended to the case in which the radar backscatter from the remotely sensed surface varies within the SAR image because of incidence angle effects. The results obtained illustrate the practicality of the method for combining SAR intensity observations acquired at two different frequencies and for improving classification accuracy of SAR data.

Rignot, E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lightning Contribution to Improvement of Passive Microwave Vertical Structure and Rainfall Estimation

Joint observations from the TRMM mission are used to examine the contribution which lightning observations can make towards estimation of vertical structure and rainfall from passive microwave data. Passive microwave (TMI) observations are binned into distinct vertical structure categories based on cluster analysis of radar (PR) vertical profiles and convective/stratiform (C/S) classifiers. TMI rain estimates are high-biased relative to radar for stratiform and mixed convective/stratiform vertical structures and low-biased relative to radar for convective structures. Significant ambiguity exists in the TMI brightness temperature space between midlevel stratiform and convective profile types which are primary contributors to tropical rainfall. The ambiguity is worst for convective profile types with radar echo tops within and just above the mixed-phase region. The ability of TMI data (including all low and high frequency polarized brightness temperatures; 19V, 19H, 21V, 37V, 37H, 85V, 85H) to predict vertical structure is assessed. The incremental benefit of including TMI convective/stratiform (C/S) classifiers (both 85 GHz polarization and 19, 37 and 85 GHz texture-based) and LZS lightning observations is then considered. The use of all parameters (brightness temperatures, TMI C/S classifiers, lightning data, predicted vertical structure) to reduce TMI/PR rainfall estimate scatter is demonstrated. For both vertical structure and rainfall estimation, inclusion of C/S classifiers and lightning observations provide statistical skill improvements but do not completely alleviate critical midlevel profile C/S ambiguity and related rain estimate errors.

Boccippio, Dennis↗

NASA NTRS1994

Amazon Rain Forest Classification Using J-ERS-1 SAR Data

The Amazon rain forest is a region of the earth that is undergoing rapid change. Man-made disturbance, such as clear cutting for agriculture or mining, is altering the rain forest ecosystem. For many parts of the rain forest, seasonal changes from the wet to the dry season are also significant. Changes in the seasonal cycle of flooding and draining can cause significant alterations in the forest ecosystem.Because much of the Amazon basin is regularly covered by thick clouds, optical and infrared coverage from the LANDSAT and SPOT satellites is sporadic. Imaging radar offers a much better potential for regular monitoring of changes in this region. In particular, the J-ERS-1 satellite carries an L-band HH SAR system, which via an on-board tape recorder, can collect data from almost anywhere on the globe at any time of year.In this paper, we show how J-ERS-1 radar images can be used to accurately classify different forest types (i.e., forest, hill forest, flooded forest), disturbed areas such as clear cuts and urban areas, and river courses in the Amazon basin. J-ERS-1 data has also shown significant differences between the dry and wet season, indicating a strong potential for monitoring seasonal change. The algorithm used to classify J-ERS-1 data is a standard maximum-likelihood classifier, using the radar image local mean and standard deviation of texture as input. Rivers and clear cuts are detected using edge detection and region-growing algorithms. Since this classifier is intended to operate successfully on data taken over the entire Amazon, several options are available to enable the user to modify the algorithm to suit a particular image.

J-ERS-1↗

NASA NTRS2006

Characterization of Days Based On Analysis of National Airspace System Performance Metrics

Days of operations in the National Airspace System can be described in term of traffic demand, runway conditions, equipment outages, and surface and enroute weather conditions. These causes manifest themselves in terms of departure delays, arrival delays, enroute delays and traffic flow management delays, Traffic flow management initiatives such as, ground stops, ground delay programs, miles-in-trail restrictions, rerouting and airborne holding are imposed to balance the air traffic demand with respect to the available capacity, In order to maintain operational efficiency of the National Airspace System, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) maintains delay sad other statistics in the Air Traffic Operations Network (OPSNET) and the Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) databases. OPSNET data includes reportable delays of fifteen minutes ox more experienced by Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flights. Numbers of aircraft affected by departure delays, enroute delays, arrival delays and traffic flow delays are recorded in the OPSNET data. ASPM data consist of number of actual departures, number of canceled departures, percentage of on time departures, percentage of on time gate arrivals, taxi-out delays. taxi-in delays, gate delays, arrival delays and block delays. Surface conditions at the major U.S. airports are classified in terms of Instrument Meteorological Condition (IMC) and Visual Meteorological Condition (VMC) as a function of the time of the day in the ASPM data. The main objective of this paper is to use OPSNET and ASPM data to classify the days in the datasets into few distinct groups, where each group is separated from the other groups in terms of a distance metric. The motivations for classifying the days are two-fold, 1) to enable selection of days of traffic with particular operational characteristics for concept evaluation using system-wide simulation systems such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Airspace Concepts Evaluation Tool (ACES) and 2) to enable evaluation of a given day with respect to the characteristics of the classified groups. The first part of the paper is devoted to the analysis of major trends seen in the OPSNET and ASPM data. The second part of the paper is devoted to describing features or measures derived from the OPSNET and ASPM data that are suitable for characterizing days, and the classification algorithm used for grouping the days. Finally, the method for evaluating the characteristics of a given day with respect to the properties of the groups is described.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Classification Experiments on Real-World Texture

Many papers have been published concerning the analysis of visual texture and yet, very few application domains use texture for image classification. A possible reason for this low transfer of the technology is the lack of experience and testing in real-world imagery. In this paper, we assess the performance of texture-based classification methods on a number of real-world images relevant to autonomous navigation on cross-country terrain and to autonomous geology. Texture analysis will form part of the closed loop that allows a robotic system to navigate autonomously. We have implemented two different classifiers on features extracted by Gabor filter banks. The first classifier models feature distributions for each texture class using a mixture of Gaussians. Classification is performed using Maximum Likelihood. The second classifier represents local statistics using marginal histograms of the features over a region centered on the pixel to be classified. We measure system performance by comparison to ground truth image labels.

image segmentation↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Classification Table for Achondrites

Classifying chondrites is relatively easy and the criteria are well documented. It is based on mineral compositions, textural characteristics and more recently, magnetic susceptibility. It can be more difficult to classify achondrites, especially those that are very similar to terrestrial igneous rocks, because mineralogical, textural and compositional properties can be quite variable. Achondrites contain essentially olivine, pyroxenes, plagioclases, oxides, sulphides and accessory minerals. Their origin is attributed to differentiated parents bodies: large asteroids (Vesta); planets (Mars); a satellite (the Moon); and numerous asteroids of unknown size. In most cases, achondrites are not eye witnessed falls and some do not have fusion crust. Because of the mineralogical and magnetic susceptibility similarity with terrestrial igneous rocks for some achondrites, it can be difficult for classifiers to confirm their extra-terrestrial origin. We -as classifiers of meteorites- are confronted with this problem with every suspected achondrite we receive for identification. We are developing a "grid" of classification to provide an easier approach for initial classification. We use simple but reproducible criteria based on mineralogical, petrological and geochemical studies. We presented the classes: acapulcoites, lodranites, winonaites and Martian meteorites (shergottite, chassignites, nakhlites). In this work we are completing the classification table by including the groups: angrites, aubrites, brachinites, ureilites, HED (howardites, eucrites, and diogenites), lunar meteorites, pallasites and mesosiderites. Iron meteorites are not presented in this abstract.

Chennaoui-Aoudjehane, H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimization of a Multi-Stage ATR System for Small Target Identification

An Automated Target Recognition system (ATR) was developed to locate and target small object in images and videos. The data is preprocessed and sent to a grayscale optical correlator (GOC) filter to identify possible regionsof- interest (ROIs). Next, features are extracted from ROIs based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and sent to neural network (NN) to be classified. The features are analyzed by the NN classifier indicating if each ROI contains the desired target or not. The ATR system was found useful in identifying small boats in open sea. However, due to "noisy background," such as weather conditions, background buildings, or water wakes, some false targets are mis-classified. Feedforward backpropagation and Radial Basis neural networks are optimized for generalization of representative features to reduce false-alarm rate. The neural networks are compared for their performance in classification accuracy, classifying time, and training time.

false alarm rate↗

NASA NTRS2016

Machine-z: Rapid Machine-Learned Redshift Indicator for Swift Gamma-Ray Bursts

Studies of high-redshift gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) provide important information about the early Universe such as the rates of stellar collapsars and mergers, the metallicity content, constraints on the re-ionization period, and probes of the Hubble expansion. Rapid selection of high-z candidates from GRB samples reported in real time by dedicated space missions such as Swift is the key to identifying the most distant bursts before the optical afterglow becomes too dim to warrant a good spectrum. Here, we introduce 'machine-z', a redshift prediction algorithm and a 'high-z' classifier for Swift GRBs based on machine learning. Our method relies exclusively on canonical data commonly available within the first few hours after the GRB trigger. Using a sample of 284 bursts with measured redshifts, we trained a randomized ensemble of decision trees (random forest) to perform both regression and classification. Cross-validated performance studies show that the correlation coefficient between machine-z predictions and the true redshift is nearly 0.6. At the same time, our high-z classifier can achieve 80 per cent recall of true high-redshift bursts, while incurring a false positive rate of 20 per cent. With 40 per cent false positive rate the classifier can achieve approximately 100 per cent recall. The most reliable selection of high-redshift GRBs is obtained by combining predictions from both the high-z classifier and the machine-z regressor.

gamma-ray burst: general↗

NASA NTRS2017

A 3D Active Learning Application for NeMO-Net, the NASA Neural Multi-Modal Observation and Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment

NeMO-Net, the NASA neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment, is an open-source deep convolutional neural network and interactive active learning training software aiming to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology as well as mapping of spatial distribution. We present an interactive video game prototype for tablet and mobile devices where users interactively label morphology classifications over mm-scale 3D coral reef imagery captured using fluid lensing to create a dataset that will be used to train NeMO-Nets convolutional neural network. The application currently allows for users to classify preselected regions of coral in the Pacific and will be expanded to include additional regions captured using our NASA FluidCam instrument, presently the highest-resolution remote sensing benthic imaging technology capable of removing ocean wave distortion, as well as lower-resolution airborne remote sensing data from the ongoing NASA CORAL campaign. Active learning applications present a novel methodology for efficiently training large-scale Neural Networks wherein variances in identification can be rapidly mitigated against control data. NeMO-Net periodically checks users input against pre-classified coral imagery to gauge their accuracy and utilize in-game mechanics to provide classification training. Users actively communicate with a server and are requested to classify areas of coral for which other users had conflicting classifications and contribute their input to a larger database for ranking. In partnering with Mission Blue and IUCN, NeMO-Net leverages an international consortium of subject matter experts to classify areas of confusion identified by NeMO-Net and generate additional labels crucial for identifying decision boundary locations in coral reef assessment.

NeMO=NET↗

NASA NTRS2018

Advances in Hyperspectral Image Classification Methods for Vegetation and Agricultural Cropland Studies

Hyperspectral data are becoming more widely available via sensors on airborne and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms, as well as proximal platforms. While space-based hyperspectral data continue to be limited in availability, multiple spaceborne Earth-observing missions on traditional platforms are scheduled for launch, and companies are experimenting with small satellites for constellations to observe the Earth, as well as for planetary missions. Land cover mapping via classification is one of the most important applications of hyperspectral remote sensing and will increase in significance as time series of imagery are more readily available. However, while the narrow bands of hyperspectral data provide new opportunities for chemistry-based modeling and mapping, challenges remain. Hyperspectral data are high dimensional, and many bands are highly correlated or irrelevant for a given classification problem. For supervised classification methods, the quantity of training data is typically limited relative to the dimension of the input space. The resulting Hughes phenomenon, often referred to as the curse of dimensionality, increases potential for unstable parameter estimates, overfitting, and poor generalization of classifiers. This is particularly problematic for parametric approaches such as Gaussian maximum likelihood–based classifiers that have been the backbone of pixel-based multispectral classification methods. This issue has motivated investigation of alternatives, including regularization of the class covariance matrices, ensembles of weak classifiers, development of feature selection and extraction methods, adoption of nonparametric classifiers, and exploration of methods to exploit unlabeled samples via semi-supervised and active learning. Data sets are also quite large, motivating computationally efficient algorithms and implementations. This chapter provides an overview of the recent advances in classification methods for mapping vegetation using hyperspectral data. Three data sets that are used in the hyperspectral classification literature (e.g., Botswana Hyperion satellite data and AVIRIS airborne data over both Kennedy Space Center and Indian Pines) are described in Section 3.2 and used to illustrate methods described in the chapter. An additional high-resolution hyperspectral data set acquired by a SpecTIR sensor on an airborne platform over the Indian Pines area is included to exemplify the use of new deep learning approaches, and a multiplatform example of airborne hyperspectral data is provided to demonstrate transfer learning in hyperspectral image classification. Classical approaches for supervised and unsupervised feature selection and extraction are reviewed in Section 3.3. In particular, nonlinearities exhibited in hyperspectral imagery have motivated development of nonlinear feature extraction methods in manifold learning, which are outlined in Section 3.3.1.4. Spatial context is also important in classification of both natural vegetation with complex textural patterns and large agricultural fields with significant local variability within fields. Approaches to exploit spatial features at both the pixel level (e.g., co-occurrence–based texture and extended morphological attribute profiles [EMAPs]) and integration of segmentation approaches (e.g., HSeg) are discussed in this context in Section 3.3.2. Recently, classification methods that leverage nonparametric methods originating in the machine learning community have grown in popularity. An overview of both widely used and newly emerging approaches, including support vector machines (SVMs), Gaussian mixture models, and deep learning based on convolutional neural networks is provided in Section 3.4. Strategies to exploit unlabeled samples, including active learning and metric learning, which combine feature extraction and augmentation of the pool of training samples in an active learning framework, are outlined in Section 3.5. Integration of image segmentation with classification to accommodate spatial coherence typically observed in vegetation is also explored, including as an integrated active learning system. Exploitation of multisensor strategies for augmenting the pool of training samples is investigated via a transfer learning framework in Section 3.5.1.2. Finally, we look to the future, considering opportunities soon to be provided by new paradigms, as hyperspectral sensing is becoming common at multiple scales from ground-based and airborne autonomous vehicles to manned aircraft and space-based platforms.

Pasolli, Edoardo↗

NASA NTRS2020

Improving Trust in Deep Neural Networks with Nearest Neighbors

Deep neural networks are used increasingly for perception and decision-making in UAVs. For example, they can be used to recognize objects from images and decide what actions the vehicle should take. While deep neural networks can perform very well at complex tasks, their decisions may be unintuitive to a human operator. When a human disagrees with a neural network prediction, due to the black box nature of deep neural networks, it can be unclear whether the system knows something the human does not or whether the system is malfunctioning. This uncertainty is problematic when it comes to ensuring safety. As a result, it is important to develop technologies for explaining neural network decisions for trust and safety. This paper explores a modification to the deep neural network classification layer to produce both a predicted label and an explanation to support its prediction. Specifically, at test time, we replace the final output layer of the neural network classifier by a k-nearest neighbor classifier. The nearest neighbor classifier produces 1) a predicted label through voting and 2) the nearest neighbors involved in the prediction, which represent the most similar examples from the training dataset. Because prediction and explanation are derived from the same underlying process, this approach guarantees that the explanations are always relevant to the predictions. We demonstrate the approach on a convolutional neural network for a UAV image classification task. We perform experiments using a forest trail image dataset and show empirically that the hybrid classifier can produce intuitive explanations without loss of predictive performance compared to the original neural network. We also show how the approach can be used to help identify potential issues in the network and training process.

Lee, Ritchie↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerial Object Trajectory Classification by Training on Flight Controller Data and Testing on RADAR Generated Tracks

Onboard collision avoidance is needed to enable safe, autonomous flight operations for NASA projects such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), as well as many commercial applications. Real-time aerial object classification will improve onboard collision avoidance algorithm decision making and may reduce unnecessary activation of avoidance systems. This work trains an aircraft trajectory classifier using trajectories from flight controller logs and tests the classifier using RADAR collected trajectories during air to air experiments and ground to air experiments. In contrast to RADAR data, these flight controller logs are relatively abundant, which makes the possibility of substituting flight data for RADAR data an attractive, cost-effective option. The SVM model developed in this work achieved a 79.7% classification accuracy on the first second of radar trajectories of GA, multirotor sUAS, and fixed wing sUAS. Findings from this work indicate that it is feasible to classify sensor collected trajectories using a classifier trained on flight controller data.

Henry Holbrook↗

NASA NTRS2022

DataSet: Aerial Object Trajectory Classification by Training on Flight Controller Data and Testing on RADAR Generated

Onboard collision avoidance is needed to enable safe, autonomous flight operations for NASA projects such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), as well as many commercial applications. Real-time aerial object classification will improve onboard collision avoidance algorithm decision making and may reduce unnecessary activation of avoidance systems. This work trains an aircraft trajectory classifier using trajectories from flight controller logs and tests the classifier using RADAR collected trajectories during air to air experiments and ground to air experiments. In contrast to RADAR data, these flight controller logs are relatively abundant, which makes the possibility of substituting flight data for RADAR data an attractive, cost-effective option. The SVM model developed in this work achieved a 79.7% classification accuracy on the first second of radar trajectories of GA, multirotor sUAS, and fixed wing sUAS. Findings from this e that it is feasible to classify sensor collected trajectories using a classifier trained flight controller data.

Chester V Dolph↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% was shown on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning (ML) Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗