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NASA NTRS1990

Stress field rotation or block rotation: An example from the Lake Mead fault system

The Coulomb criterion, as applied by Anderson (1951), has been widely used as the basis for inferring paleostresses from in situ fault slip data, assuming that faults are optimally oriented relative to the tectonic stress direction. Consequently if stress direction is fixed during deformation so must be the faults. Freund (1974) has shown that faults, when arranged in sets, must generally rotate as they slip. Nur et al., (1986) showed how sufficiently large rotations require the development of new sets of faults which are more favorably oriented to the principal direction of stress. This leads to the appearance of multiple fault sets in which older faults are offset by younger ones, both having the same sense of slip. Consequently correct paleostress analysis must include the possible effect of fault and material rotation, in addition to stress field rotation. The combined effects of stress field rotation and material rotation were investigated in the Lake Meade Fault System (LMFS) especially in the Hoover Dam area. Fault inversion results imply an apparent 60 degrees clockwise (CW) rotation of the stress field since mid-Miocene time. In contrast structural data from the rest of the Great Basin suggest only a 30 degrees CW stress field rotation. By incorporating paleomagnetic and seismic evidence, the 30 degrees discrepancy can be neatly resolved. Based on paleomagnetic declination anomalies, it is inferred that slip on NW trending right lateral faults caused a local 30 degrees counter-clockwise (CCW) rotation of blocks and faults in the Lake Mead area. Consequently the inferred 60 degrees CW rotation of the stress field in the LMFS consists of an actual 30 degrees CW rotation of the stress field (as for the entire Great Basin) plus a local 30 degrees CCW material rotation of the LMFS fault blocks.

Ron, Hagai↗
NASA NTRS1993

Chemical and luminosity evolution, and counts of galaxies in a merger model

A merger model is applied to the chemical and luminosity evolution of galaxies. Two aspects are focused on. The first is the problem of abundance ratios as a function of metallicity. The second is related to the luminosity evolution of galaxies. In relation to the former, we calculate the evolution of several chemical elements exploring a broad space of possible star formation rates, including those derived using phenomenological arguments from a multiple merger galaxy formation scenario. We are able to reproduce the observed plateau in the ratio of the abundances of oxygen to iron versus metallicity as a direct consequence of one of the merging SFR used; we have utilized a standard Type II supernovae nucleosynthesis scenario coupled with a reasonable binary model for Type Ia supernovae and its consequent nucleosynthetic yields. Following the consequent luminosity effects in a straightforward way enables the estimation of the evolution of bolometric luminosity. We have used our recently developed code for photometric evolution of galaxies to make a preliminary computation of the number-magnitude relationship, assuming a standard picture of galaxy evolution, in the B and K bands.

Colin, P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Weakly damped modes in star clusters and galaxies

A perturber may excite a coherent mode in a star cluster or galaxy. If the stellar system is stable, it is commonly assumed that such a mode will be strongly damped and therefore of little practical consequence other than redistributing momentum and energy deposited by the perturber. This paper demonstrates that this assumption is false; weakly damped modes exist and may persist long enough to have observable consequences. To do this, a method for investigating the dispersion relation for spherical stellar systems and for locating weakly damped modes in particular is developed and applied to King models of varying concentration. This leads to a following remarkable result: King models exhibit very weakly damped m = 1 modes over a wide range of concentration (0.67 less than or equal to c less than or equal to 1.5 have been examined). The predicted damping time is tens of hundreds of crossing times. This mode causes the peak density to shift from and slowly revolve about the initial center. The existence of the mode is supported by n-body simulation. Higher order modes and possible astronomical consequences are discussed. Weakly damped modes, for example, may provide a neutral explanation for observed discrepancies between density and kinematic centers in galaxies, off-center nuclei, the location of velocity cusps due to massive black holes, and both m = 1 and barlike disturbances of disks enbedded in massive halos or spheroids. Gravitational shocking may excite the m = 1 mode in globular clusters, which could modify their subsequent evolution and displace the positions of exotic remnants.

Weinberg, Martin D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Study of Effects of Time Variations in the Earth's Gravity Field on Geodetic Satellites

The temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field are the consequences of complex interactions between atmosphere, ocean, solid Earth, hydrosphere and cryosphere. The signal ranges from several hours to 18.6 years to geological time scale. The direct and indirect consequences of these variations are manifested in such phenomena as changes in the global sea level and in the global climate pattern. These signals produce observable geodetic satellites. The primary objectives of the proposed effects on near-Earth orbiting investigation include (1) the improved determination of the time-varying gravity field parameters (scale from a few hour to 18.6 year and secular) using long-term satellite laser rs ranging (SLR) observations to multiple geodetic satellites, and (2) the enhanced understanding of these variations with their associated meteorological and geophysical consequences.

Shum, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

CONSTELL: NASA's Satellite Constellation Model

The CONSTELL program represents an initial effort by the orbital debris modeling group at NASA/JSC to address the particular issues and problems raised by the presence of LEO satellite constellations. It was designed to help NASA better understand the potential orbital debris consequences of having satellite constellations operating in the future in LEO. However, it could also be used by constellation planners to evaluate architecture or design alternatives that might lessen debris consequences for their constellation or lessen the debris effects on other users of space. CONSTELL is designed to perform debris environment projections rapidly so it can support parametric assessments involving either the constellations themselves or the background environment which represents non-constellation users of the space. The projections need to be calculated quickly because a number of projections are often required to adequately span the parameter space of interest. To this end CONSTELL uses the outputs of other NASA debris environment models as inputs, thus doing away with the need for time consuming upfront calculations. Specifically, CONSTELL uses EVOLVE or ORDEM96 debris spatial density results as its background environment, debris cloud snapshot templates to simulate debris cloud propagation, and time dependent orbit profiles of the intact non- functional constellation spacecraft and upper stages. In this paper the environmental consequences of the deployment of particular LEO satellite constellations using the CONSTELL model will be evaluated. Constellations that will undergo a parametric assessment will reflect realistic parameter values. Among other results the increase in loss rate of non-constellation spacecraft, the number of collisions involving constellation elements, and the replacement rate of constellation satellites as a result of debris impact will be presented.

Theall, Jeffrey R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Abundant raw material for cis-regulatory evolution in humans

Changes in gene expression and regulation--due in particular to the evolution of cis-regulatory DNA sequences--may underlie many evolutionary changes in phenotypes, yet little is known about the distribution of such variation in populations. We present in this study the first survey of experimentally validated functional cis-regulatory polymorphism. These data are derived from more than 140 polymorphisms involved in the regulation of 107 genes in Homo sapiens, the eukaryote species with the most available data. We find that functional cis-regulatory variation is widespread in the human genome and that the consequent variation in gene expression is twofold or greater for 63% of the genes surveyed. Transcription factor-DNA interactions are highly polymorphic, and regulatory interactions have been gained and lost within human populations. On average, humans are heterozygous at more functional cis-regulatory sites (>16,000) than at amino acid positions (<13,000), in part because of an overrepresentation among the former in multiallelic tandem repeat variation, especially (AC)(n) dinucleotide microsatellites. The role of microsatellites in gene expression variation may provide a larger store of heritable phenotypic variation, and a more rapid mutational input of such variation, than has been realized. Finally, we outline the distinctive consequences of cis-regulatory variation for the genotype-phenotype relationship, including ubiquitous epistasis and genotype-by-environment interactions, as well as underappreciated modes of pleiotropy and overdominance. Ordinary small-scale mutations contribute to pervasive variation in transcription rates and consequently to patterns of human phenotypic variation.

NASA Discipline Evolutionary Biology↗
NASA NTRS2001

Effects of afternoon "siesta" naps on sleep, alertness, performance, and circadian rhythms in the elderly

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine the effects of a 90-minute afternoon nap regimen on nocturnal sleep, circadian rhythms, and evening alertness and performance levels in the healthy elderly. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nine healthy elderly subjects (4m, 5f, age range 74y-87y) each experienced both nap and no-nap conditions in two studies each lasting 17 days (14 at home, 3 in the laboratory). In the nap condition a 90-minute nap was enforced between 13:30 and 15:00 every day, in the no-nap condition daytime napping was prohibited, and activity encouraged in the 13:30-15:00 interval. The order of the two conditions was counterbalanced. PARTICIPANTS: N/A INTERVENTIONS: N/A MEASUREMENTS: Diary measures, pencil and paper alertness tests, and wrist actigraphy were used at home. In the 72 hour laboratory studies, these measures were augmented by polysomnographic sleep recording, continuous rectal temperature measurement, a daily evening single trial of a Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT), and computerized tests of mood, activation and performance efficiency. RESULTS: By the second week in the "at home" study, an average of 58 minutes of sleep was reported per siesta nap; in the laboratory, polysomnography confirmed an average of 57 minutes of sleep per nap. When nap and no-nap conditions were compared, mixed effects on nocturnal sleep were observed. Diary measures indicated no significant difference in nocturnal sleep duration, but a significant increase (of 38 mins.) in 24-hour Total Sleep Time (TST) when nocturnal sleeps and naps were added together (p<0.025). The laboratory study revealed a decrease of 2.4% in nocturnal sleep efficiency in the nap condition (p<0.025), a reduction of nocturnal Total Sleep Time (TST) by 48 mins. in the nap condition (p<0.001) which resulted primarily from significantly earlier waketimes (p<0.005), but no reliable effects on Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO), delta sleep measures, or percent stages 1 & 2. Unlike the diary study, the laboratory study yielded no overall increase in 24-hour TST consequent upon the siesta nap regimen. The only measure of evening alertness or performance to show an improvement was sleep latency in a single-trial evening MSLT (nap: 15.6 mins., no nap: 11.5 mins., p<0.005). No significant change in circadian rhythm parameters was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy seniors were able to adopt a napping regimen involving a 90-minute siesta nap each day between 13:30 and 15:00, achieving about one hour of actual sleep per nap. There were some negative consequences for nocturnal sleep in terms of reduced sleep efficiency and earlier waketimes, but also some positive consequences for objective evening performance and (in the diary study) 24-hour sleep totals. Subjective alertness measures and performance measures showed no reliable effects and circadian phase parameters appeared unchanged.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2000

Cardiovascular response to lower body negative pressure stimulation before, during, and after space flight

BACKGROUND: It is well known that space travel cause post-flight orthostatic hypotension and it was assumed that autonomic cardiovascular control deteriorates in space. Lower body negative pressure (LBNP) was used to assess autonomic function of the cardiovascular system. METHODS: LBNP tests were performed on six crew-members before and on the first days post-flight in a series of three space missions. Additionally, two of the subjects performed LBNP tests in-flight. LBNP mimics fluid distribution of upright posture in a gravity independent way. It causes an artificial sequestration of blood, reduces preload, and filtrates plasma into the lower part of the body. Fluid distribution was assessed by bioelectrical impedance and anthropometric measurements. RESULTS: Heart rate, blood pressure, and total peripheral resistance increased significantly during LBNP experiments in-flight. The decrease in stroke volume, the increased pooling of blood, and the increased filtration of plasma into the lower limbs during LBNP indicated that a plasma volume reduction and a deficit of the interstitial volume of lower limbs rather than a change in cardiovascular control was responsible for the in-flight response. Post-flight LBNP showed no signs of cardiovascular deterioration. The still more pronounced haemodynamic changes during LBNP reflected the expected behaviour of cardiovascular control faced with less intravascular volume. In-flight, the status of an intra-and extravascular fluid deficit increases sympathetic activity, the release of vasoactive substances and consequently blood pressure. Post-flight, blood pressure decreases significantly below pre-flight values after restoration of volume deficits. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the cardiovascular changes in-flight are a consequence of a fluid deficit rather than a consequence of changes in autonomic signal processing.

manned↗
NASA NTRS2005

Ice-Ridge Pile Up and the Genesis of Martian "Shorelines"

Unique geomorphologic features such as basin terraces exhibiting topographic continuity have been found within several Martian craters as shown in Viking, MOC, and THEMIS images. These features, showing similarity to terrestrial shorelines, have been mapped and cataloged with significant effort [1]. Currently, open wave action on the surface of paleolakes has been hypothesized as the geomorphologic agent responsible for the generation of these features [2]. As consequence, feature interpretations, including shorelines, wave-cut benches, and bars are, befittingly, lacustrine. Because such interpretations and their formation mechanisms have profound implications for the climate and potential biological history of Mars, confidence is crucial. The insight acquired through linked quantitative modeling of geomorphologic agents and processes is key to accurately interpreting these features. In this vein, recent studies [3,4] involving the water wave energy in theoretical open water basins on Mars show minimal erosional effects due to water waves under Martian conditions. Consequently, sub-glacial lake flattens the surface, produces a local velocity increase over the lake, and creates a deviation of the ice flow from the main flow direction [11]. These consequences of ice flow are observed at Lake Vostok, Antarctica an excellent Martian analogue [11]. Martian observations include reticulate terrain exhibiting sharp inter-connected ridges speculated to reflect the deposition and reworking of ice blocks at the periphery of ice-covered lakes throughout Hellas [12]. Our model determines to what extent ice, a terrestrial geomorphologic agent, can alter the Martian landscape. Method: We study the evolution of crater ice plugs as the formation mechanism of surface features frequently identified as shorelines. In particular, we perform model integrations involving parameters such as ice slope and purity, atmospheric pressure and temperature, crater shape and composition, and an energy balance between solar flux, geothermal flux, latent heat, and ablation. Our ultimate goal is to understand how an intracrater ice plug could create the observed shoreline features and how these

Barnhart, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Four-Point-Latching Microactuator

An experimental inchworm-type linear microactuator is depicted. This microactuator is a successor to one described in "MEMS-Based Piezoelectric/Electrostatic Inchworm Actuator" (NPO-30672), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 6 (June 2003), page 68. Both actuators are based on the principle of using a piezoelectric transducer operated in alternation with electrostatically actuated clutches to cause a slider to move in small increments. However, the design of the present actuator incorporates several improvements over that of the previous one. The most readily apparent improvement is in geometry and, consequently, in fabrication: In the previous actuator, the inchworm motion was perpendicular to the broad faces of a flat silicon wafer on which the actuator was fabricated, and fabrication involved complex processes to form complex three-dimensional shapes in and on the wafer. In the present actuator, the inchworm motion is parallel to the broad faces of a wafer on which it is fabricated. The components needed to produce the in-plane motion are nearly planar in character and, consequently, easier to fabricate. Other advantages of the present design are described, including that the previous actuator contained two clutches (denoted 'holders' in the cited prior article), the present actuator contains four clutches. The operational sequence of the previous two-clutch actuator is similar. However, the two-clutch configuration is susceptible to tilt of the slider and a consequent large increase in drag. Hence, the primary operational advantages of the present four-point-latching design over the prior two-point-latching design are less drag and greater control robustness arising from greater stability of the orientation of the slider.

Toda, Risaku↗
NASA NTRS2009

Determining the Relative Criticality of Diverse Exploration Risks in NASA's Human Research Program

The mission of NASA s Human Research Program (HRP) is to understand and reduce the risk to crew health and performance in exploration missions. The HRP addresses 27 specific risks, primarily in the context of Continuous Risk Management. Each risk is evaluated in terms of two missions (a six month stay on the Moon and a thirty month round trip to Mars) and three types of consequences (in-mission crew health, post-mission crew health, and in-mission performance). The lack of a common metric between the three consequence scales, such as financial costs or quality adjusted life years lost, makes it difficult to compare the relative criticality of the risks. We are, therefore, exploring the use of a ternary scale of criticality based on the common metric of influencing an operational decision. The three levels correspond to the level of concern the risk generates for a "go/no-go" decision to launch a mission: 1) no-go; 2) go with significant reservations; 3) go. The criticality of each of the 27 risks is scored for the three types of consequence in both types of mission. The scores are combined to produce an overall criticality rating for each risk. The overall criticality rating can then be used to guide the prioritization of resources to affect the greatest amount of risk reduction.

Kundrot, Craig E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Constellation Program Lessons Learned: Detailed Lessons Learned - Volume 2

These lessons learned are part of a suite of hardware, software, test results, designs, knowledge base, and documentation that comprises the legacy of the Constellation Program. The context, summary information, and lessons learned are presented in a factual format, as known and described at the time. While our opinions might be discernable in the context, we have avoided all but factually sustainable statements. Statements should not be viewed as being either positive or negative; their value lies in what we did and what we learned that is worthy of passing on. The lessons include both "dos" and "don ts." In many cases, one person s "do" can be viewed as another person s "don t"; therefore, we have attempted to capture both perspectives when applicable and useful. While Volume I summarizes the views of those who managed the program, this Volume II encompasses the views at the working level, describing how the program challenges manifested in day-to-day activities. Here we see themes that were perhaps hinted at, but not completely addressed, in Volume I: unintended consequences of policies that worked well at higher levels but lacked proper implementation at the working level; long-term effects of the "generation gap" in human space flight development, the need to demonstrate early successes at the expense of thorough planning, and the consequences of problems and challenges not yet addressed because other problems and challenges were more immediate or manifest. Not all lessons learned have the benefit of being operationally vetted, since the program was cancelled shortly after Preliminary Design Review. We avoid making statements about operational consequences (with the exception of testing and test flights that did occur), but we do attempt to provide insight into how operational thinking influenced design and testing. The lessons have been formatted with a description, along with supporting information, a succinct statement of the lesson learned, and recommendations for future programs and projects that may be placed in similar circumstances.

Jennifer Rhatigan↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using Agent Based Modeling (ABM) to Develop Cultural Interaction Simulations

Today, most cultural training is based on or built around "cultural engagements" or discrete interactions between the individual learner and one or more cultural "others". Often, success in the engagement is the end or the objective. In reality, these interactions usually involve secondary and tertiary effects with potentially wide ranging consequences. The concern is that learning culture within a strict engagement context might lead to "checklist" cultural thinking that will not empower learners to understand the full consequence of their actions. We propose the use of agent based modeling (ABM) to collect, store, and, simulating the effects of social networks, promulgate engagement effects over time, distance, and consequence. The ABM development allows for rapid modification to re-create any number of population types, extending the applicability of the model to any requirement for social modeling.

Drucker, Nick↗
NASA NTRS2014

Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) Development Risk Communication

There are clear advantages of development of a Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) for a crewed mission to Mars. NTR for in-space propulsion enables more ambitious space missions by providing high thrust at high specific impulse (approximately 900 sec) that is 2 times the best theoretical performance possible for chemical rockets. Missions can be optimized for maximum payload capability to take more payload with reduced total mass to orbit; saving cost on reduction of the number of launch vehicles needed. Or missions can be optimized to minimize trip time significantly to reduce the deep space radiation exposure to the crew. NTR propulsion technology is a game changer for space exploration. However, "NUCLEAR" is a word that is feared and vilified by some groups and the hostility towards development of any nuclear systems can meet great opposition by the public as well as from national leaders and people in authority. Communication of nuclear safety will be critical to the success of the development of the NTR. Why is there a fear of nuclear? A bomb that can level a city is a scary weapon. The first and only times the Nuclear Bomb was used in a war was on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War 2. The "Little Boy" atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945 and the "Fat Man" on Nagasaki 3 days later on August 9th. Within the first 4 months of bombings, 90- 166 thousand people died in Hiroshima and 60-80 thousand died in Nagasaki. It is important to note for comparison that over 500 thousand people died and 5 million made homeless due to strategic bombing (approximately 150 thousand tons) of Japanese cities and war assets with conventional non-nuclear weapons between 1942- 1945. A major bombing campaign of "firebombing" of Tokyo called "Operation Meetinghouse" on March 9 and 10 consisting of 334 B-29's dropped approximately1,700 tons of bombs around 16 square mile area and over 100 thousand people have been estimated to have died. The declaration of death is very clear for conventional weapons and then the declaration of death due to radiation becomes vague and unclear. This may have been due to people mis-understanding the dangers and effects of radiation when assessing the damage and harm to people initially, but it is also become insidious when expressing opposition to nuclear energy. A nuclear radiation accident can be scary due to the power involved and the fear of radiation release. The International Atomic Energy Agency defines a nuclear and radiation accident a "an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility." There have been 3 commercial nuclear reactor accidents (Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima) that stand out to the public and much of the information about the result and impact to workers, environment, and public can be misleading. Often information is presented without clear correlation with radiation and other pertinent information is left out presenting a very scary situation to affect the emotions of the reader. A very boring but "critically acclaimed" movie was made in 1979 called "The China Syndrome" starring Jane Fonda and Jack Lemmon. The film was released on March 16, 1979, 12 days before the 3-Mile Island nuclear accident in Pennsylvania. The basis from the movie was from a few nuclear plant incidents and in particular, the Brown's Ferry Alabama Power Plant fire. In one scene from the movie, a physicist Dr. Elliott Lowell played by Donald Hotton states that a China Syndrome event would make "an area the size of Pennsylvania" permanently uninhabitable. Real serious nuclear incidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima are often sited to make people fear the consequences of using nuclear power. However, the consequences are at best poorly communicated and at worst fictitiously inflated to instigate social unrest against nuclear power. There is an article being circulated on Facebook with a title "28 Signs that the (US) West Coast is being absolutely fried with nuclear radiation from Fukushima" which focus on mis-information and fear mongering. Nuclear power and NTR are powerful resources that can open many doors for future prosperity and capability. With great power comes great responsibility. Radiation and its effects need to be better understood, quantified, and communicated. A human mission to mars has its own risks of deep space radiation and is considered a considerable risk at 400 milli-Sieverts per year in deep space and 245 milli-Sieverts per year on the surface of Mars as measured by the Mars Curiosity mission. Although these quantities of ionizing radiation are within the astronaut career limit, it exceeds the yearly average amounts of ionizing radiation. Astronaut crews have experienced these levels of radiation before, but for durations shorter than a year, and a mission to Mars could possibly be 3 years in length. There is also evidence that people can comfortably handle higher levels of ionizing radiation where the radiation occurs naturally like Ramsar, Iran when people can experience 270 milli-Sieverts per year. A risk posture that the development, test, and flight of an NTR will meet opposition from groups who oppose nuclear energy must be likely and the impact can be sever to the effort. Active risk mitigation must be taken for an NTR full-scale development project. The NTR design must take into account safety for transport and off nominal conditions. Nuclear fuel element must consider containment of fission products and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) that may meet less opposition should be considered for safety and security reasons. Even though testing was conducted on Rover/NERVA safely and successfully in the 60's with exhaust sent heavenward in to open air, modern testing of NTR must consider full containment and no release of ionizing radiation to the public and must meet the current requirement of no more than 0.1 milli-Sieverts per year to the public. 0.1 milli-Sieverts is equivalent to eating one banana or a 20 hour plane flight. Good communication with the public and regulatory agencies will be essential to show that all effort is applied toward protection to the public and astronauts. The inspiring endeavor to put humans on Mars to study the planet, search for life, and learn more about this Solar System will be full of risks but it will be worth it. NTR will be worth the development effort if it allows humans to explore our Solar System.

Kim, Tony↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed versus a requirement to provide a numerical value as part of a probabilistic risk assessment. Industries involved with humans operating large equipment or transport systems (ex. railroads or airlines) would have more need to address the man machine interface than medical workers administering medications. Human error occurs in every industry; in most cases the consequences are relatively benign and occasionally beneficial. In cases where the results can have disastrous consequences, the use of Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify the risk of human errors allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these types of risks and prevent costly tragedies.

DeMott, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Africa's Megafans and Their Tectonic Setting

Megafans are a really extensive continental sediment bodies, fluvially derived, and fan-shaped in planform. Only those >80 km long were included in this study. Africa's megafans were mapped for purposes of both comprehensive geomorphic description and as a method of mapping by remote sensing large probable fluvial sediment bodies (we exclude sediment bodies deposited in well defined, modern floodplains and coastal deltas). Our criteria included a length dimension of >80 km and maximum width >40 km, partial cone morphology, and a radial drainage pattern. Visible and especially IR imagery were used to identify the features, combined with topographic SRTM data. We identified 99 megafans most of which are unstudied thus far. Their feeder rivers responsible for depositing megafan sediments rise on, and are consequent drainages oriented down the slopes of the swells that have dominated African landscapes since approximately 34 Ma (the high points in Africa's so-called basin-and-swell topography [1]). Most megafans (66%) have developed along these consequent rivers relatively near the swell cores, oriented radially away from the swells. The vast basins between the swells provide accommodation for megafan sediment wedges. Although clearly visible remotely, most megafans are inactive as a result of incision by the feeder river (which then no longer operates on the fan surface). Two tectonic settings control the location of Africa's megafans, 66% on swell flanks, and 33% related to rifts. (i) Swell flanks Most megafans are apexed relatively near the core of the parent swell, and are often clustered in groups: e.g., six on the west and north flanks of the Hoggar Swell (Algeria), seven on the north and south flanks of the Tibesti Swell (Libya-Chad borderlands), twelve on the west flank of the Ethiopian Swell, four on the east flank of the East African Swell (Kenya), Africa's largest, and eight around Angola's Bié Swell (western Zambia, northern Namibia). A cluster of possible fans lies on the western margin of the Congo Basin (Mayombe Swell), and on the coastal slopes of the Namibia Swell. Sheer size may have militated aginst the recognition of many megafans: the largest in the Sahara are the Teghahart (378 km, Hoggar Swell, Algeria), and the Wadi Albalata (340 km, Uweinat Swell, Egypt). In southern Africa the largest are the Cubango (320 km, Bié Swell, Angola/ Namibia), and the Limpopo (230 km, Mozambique). (ii) Rift zones (a) Steer's horns basins-wide depressions centered on rifts. The largest contiguous group (n=14) developed in a steer's-horns basin occupies the wide Muglad depression (200-350 km, South Sudan). Four rift-related megafans lie SE of Lake Chad (Chad). Nine megafans occupy the complex Anza Rift in Kenya/South Somalia. The Salamat megafan (Chad), is unusual because it oriented parallel with the linked Salamat, Doseo and Doba rift axes, and is consequently one of the longest in Africa (465 km). (b) Rift depressions sensu stricto. Most rifts are too narrow to provide a transverse dimension large enough to accommodate megafans. Although well-known, the Okavango Rift (NW Botswana, NE Namibia) is unique in Africa in hosting three megafans within identifiable faulted margins. The Nile megafan is Africa's largest (476 km) and comprises the vast Sudd wetland (South Sudan). An explanation for its remarkable size may be its location in a depression at the junction of two conducive tectonic zones, the East African Swell margin and the Muglad steer's-horns depression. Discharge of the River Nile, the largest in the region, has allowed the Nile megafan to outcompete neighboring megafans for space.

Wilkinson, M. J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Systems Risk Network - A Ranking Analysis of Risks

INTRODUCTION The Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for understanding, managing, and mitigating the risks associated with spaceflight. For a particular mission, the HSRB assigns each human system risk a rating on a 5x5 grid assessing its likelihood and consequence, which is ultimately used to compare and rank the risks. The HSRB approaches risk management by primarily establishing the context of each human system risk individually with the understanding that mitigating one risk might affect the likelihood, consequence, and mitigation approaches of another. To support this effort the HSRB, subject matter experts, and risk custodian teams created directed acyclic graphs (DAG), often called a causal graph, for the twenty-nine risks. In this presentation, we propose a new ranking algorithm for the risks which includes the downstream influence of each risk according to the information in the DAGs and provide an application of graph theoretic tools. METHODS In 2014, Mindock and Klaus proposed a taxonomy for human system risk influences which we have adopted to categorize the nodes in each DAG. Analyzing the nodes that correspond to the risks in this taxonomy allows us to analyze and understand how each risk influences the others. We construct an auxiliary network, which we call the Primary Risk Network (PRN), where the nodes are the twenty-nine space flight risks and, a directed edge connects Risk A to Risk B if Risk A has some influence on the likelihood or consequence of Risk B as described in the DAGS. We perform a variety of graph theoretic ranking methods on the nodes (or risks) in the PRN, including Katz centrality. RESULTS We rank the nodes in the PRN using the Katz centrality score. The ten risks with the highest score are pictured in Figure 1, colored (light to dark) according to their score. We analyze other centrality measures like betweenness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and the Estrada index, and provide the meaning of the corresponding rankings in terms of the risks. Future work includes analyzing the other categories in the taxonomy defined by Mindock and Klaus [1]. For example, we are interested in analyzing the nodes that are labeled as countermeasures or capabilities and perform similar analysis to measure their effect on certain medical conditions.

dag↗
NASA NTRS2023

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗