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NASA NTRS2017

CARA Status and Upcoming Enhancements

CAS 8.4.3 was deployed to operations on 13 June 2017. Discrepancies Between 3D Pc Estimates and advanced Monte Carlo Equinoctial-Sampling Pc Estimates discovered and discussed at 23 May 2017 Useras (Registered Trademark) Forum. The patch created the Reporting Pc, which is the greater value between the calculated 2D and 3D Pc values This changed the Pc reported in the CDMs to the Reporting Pc This changed the Pc reported on the Summary Report to the Reporting Pc This changed the Pc reported on Maneuver Screening Analysis (MSA) Report to the Reporting Pc. Both the 2D and 3D Pc added to the Summary Report details section The patch also updated the 3D Pc algorithm to eliminate velocity covariance from the Pc calculation This will bring 2D and 3D Pc into close alignment for vast majority of events, particularly for the events in which the 2D/3D discrepancy was found.

conjunction assessmen↗

NASA NTRS2001

Principal Components Analysis of Triaxial Vibration Data From Helicopter Transmissions

Research on the nature of the vibration data collected from helicopter transmissions during flight experiments has led to several crucial observations believed to be responsible for the high rates of false alarms and missed detections in aircraft vibration monitoring systems. This work focuses on one such finding, namely, the need to consider additional sources of information about system vibrations. In this light, helicopter transmission vibration data, collected using triaxial accelerometers, were explored in three different directions, analyzed for content, and then combined using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to analyze changes in directionality. In this paper, the PCA transformation is applied to 176 test conditions/data sets collected from an OH58C helicopter to derive the overall experiment-wide covariance matrix and its principal eigenvectors. The experiment-wide eigenvectors. are then projected onto the individual test conditions to evaluate changes and similarities in their directionality based on the various experimental factors. The paper will present the foundations of the proposed approach, addressing the question of whether experiment-wide eigenvectors accurately model the vibration modes in individual test conditions. The results will further determine the value of using directionality and triaxial accelerometers for vibration monitoring and anomaly detection.

Tumer, Irem Y.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Analysis and application of minimum variance discrete time system identification

An on-line minimum variance parameter identifier is developed which embodies both accuracy and computational efficiency. The formulation results in a linear estimation problem with both additive and multiplicative noise. The resulting filter which utilizes both the covariance of the parameter vector itself and the covariance of the error in identification is proven to be mean square convergent and mean square consistent. The MV parameter identification scheme is then used to construct a stable state and parameter estimation algorithm.

Kaufman, H.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Analysis and application of minimum variance discrete time system identification

Kotob, S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The effect of differences in time to detection of circulating microbubbles on the risk of decompression sickness

Circulating microbubbles (CMB) are frequently detected prior to the appearance of symptoms of Decompression Sickness (DCS). It is difficult to analyze the effect of CMB on symptoms due to differences in the time to detection of CMB. This paper uses survival analysis models to evaluate the risk of symptoms in the presence of CMB. Methods: Information on 81 exposures to an altitude of 6,400 m (6.5 psi) for a period of three hours, with simulated extravehicular activities, was examined. The presence or absence of CMB was included as a time dependent covariate of the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Using this technique, the subgroup of exposures with CMB was analyzed further. Mean (S.D.) time in minutes to onset of CMB and symptoms were 125 (63) and 165 (33) respectively, following the three hours exposure. The risk of symptoms (17/81) increased 14 times in the presence of CMB, after controlling for variations in time to detection of CMB. Further, the risk was lower when time to detection of CMB was greater than 60 minutes (risk ratio = 0.96; 95 percent confidence intervals = 0.94 - 0.99 0.99 P less than 0.01) compared to CMB before 60 minutes at altitude. Conclusions: Survival analysis showed that individual risk of DCS changes significantly due to variations in time to detection of CMB. This information is important in evaluating the risk of DCS in the presence of CMB.

Kumar, K. V.↗

NASA NTRS1976

On the computation and updating of the modified Cholesky decomposition of a covariance matrix

Methods for obtaining and updating the modified Cholesky decomposition (MCD) for the particular case of a covariance matrix when one is given only the original data are described. These methods are the standard method of forming the covariance matrix K then solving for the MCD, L and D (where K=LDLT); a method based on Householder reflections; and lastly, a method employing the composite-t algorithm. For many cases in the analysis of remotely sensed data, the composite-t method is the superior method despite the fact that it is the slowest one, since (1) the relative amount of time computing MCD's is often quite small, (2) the stability properties of it are the best of the three, and (3) it affords an efficient and numerically stable procedure for updating the MCD. The properties of these methods are discussed and FORTRAN programs implementing these algorithms are listed.

Vanrooy, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Analysis and application of minimum variance discrete linear system identification

An on-line minimum variance (MV) parameter identifier is developed which embodies both accuracy and computational efficiency. The formulation results in a linear estimation problem with both additive and multiplicative noise (AMN). The resulting filter which utilizes both the covariance of the parameter vector itself and the covariance of the error in identification is proven to be mean-square convergent and mean-square consistent. The MV parameter identification scheme is then used to construct a stable state and parameter estimation algorithm.

Kotob, S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Interval prediction in structural dynamic analysis

Methods for assessing the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models are examined with attention given to the effects of modal mass, stiffness, and damping uncertainties. The methods are based on a nondeterministic analysis called 'interval prediction' in which interval variables are used to describe parameters and responses that are unknown. Statistical databases for generic modeling uncertainties are derived from experimental data and incorporated analytically to evaluate responses. Covariance matrices of modal mass, stiffness, and damping parameters are propagated numerically in models of large space structures by means of three methods. The test data tend to fall within the predicted intervals of uncertainty determined by the statistical databases. The present findings demonstrate the suitability of using data from previously analyzed and tested space structures for assessing the predictive accuracy of an analytical model.

Hasselman, Timothy K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Investigation of a geodesy coexperiment to the Gravity Probe B relativity gyroscope program

Geodesy is the science of measuring the gravitational field of and positions on the Earth. Estimation of the gravitational field via gravitation gradiometry, the measurement of variations in the direction and magnitude of gravitation with respect to position, is this dissertation's focus. Gravity Probe B (GP-B) is a Stanford satellite experiment in gravitational physics. GP-B will measure the precession the rotating Earth causes on the space time around it by observing the precessions of four gyroscopes in a circular, polar, drag-free orbit at 650 km altitude. The gyroscopes are nearly perfect niobium-coated spheres of quartz, operating at 1.8 K to permit observations with extremely low thermal noise. The permissible gyroscope drift rate is miniscule, so the torques on the gyros must be tiny. A drag-free control system, by canceling accelerations caused by nongravitational forces, minimizes the support forces and hence torques. The GP-B system offers two main possibilities for geodesy. One is as a drag-free satellite to be used in trajectory-based estimates of the Earth's gravity field. We described calculations involving that approach in our previous reports, including comparison of laser only, GPS only, and combined tracking and a preliminary estimate of the possibility of estimating relativistic effects on the orbit. The second possibility is gradiometry. This technique has received a more cursory examination in previous reports, so we concentrate on it here. We explore the feasibility of using the residual suspension forces centering the GP-B gyros as gradiometer signals for geodesy. The objective of this work is a statistical prediction of the formal uncertainty in an estimate of the Earth's gravitation field using data from GP-B. We perform an instrument analysis and apply two mathematical techniques to predict uncertainty. One is an analytical approach using a flat-Earth approximation to predict geopotential information quality as a function of spatial wavelength. The second estimates the covariance matrix arising in a least-squares estimate of a spherical harmonic representation of the geopotential using GP-B gradiometer data. The results show that the GP-B data set can be used to create a consistent estimate of the geopotential up to spherical harmonic degree and order 60. The formal uncertainty of all coefficients between degrees 5 and 50 is reduced by factors of up to 30 over current satellite-only estimates and up to 7 over estimates which include surface data. The primary conclusion resulting from this study is that the gravitation gradiometer geodesy coexperiment to GP-B is both feasible and attractive.

Everitt, C. W. F.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗

NASA NTRS2010

Large Scale Covariability in the Aerosol-SST-Precipitation Relation: A Satellite Perspective

Although large scale aerosol effects on precipitation have attracted increasing attention in recent years, significant uncertainties still remain in the current understanding of'such effects. One of the factors contributing to these uncertainties is the availability of aerosol data sets that are sufficiently long, stable, and comprehensive to be used for climate analysis. Such data sets are crucial for any long-term studies that are needed to demonstrate the statistical significance of large scale aerosol effects on precipitation when compared to the effects from other climate factors, such as remote or local sea surface temperature (SST) variability (ENSO. etc.). A longterm consistent aerosol product that complements the existing MODIS and AVHRR aerosol products is therefore needed to minimize aerosol data uncertainty issues for such Studies. The SeaWiFS instrument was primarily designed to measure ocean color, and it has been the mayor source for providing a comprehensive global data set of such measurements since its launch in 1997. Besides being used in this capacity, however, the well-calibrated set of radiances measured in the wavelength range from the visible (0.41 m) to the near infrared (0.87 m) is also well suited to creating long-term climate data records of aerosols. Recently, a new 13-year SeaWiFS aerosol optical depth dataset has been developed that expands its capacity to be used for such atmospheric studies. This SeaWiFS aerosol product provides us with an unprecedented opportunity to examine the covariability of aerosol, SST and precipitation on both a regional and global scale. We also use concurrent independent SST (NOAA Optimum Interpolation, OI, SST V2) and precipitation (GPCP V2) datasets for this study. We will present and discuss results from this study over several aerosol hot spot regions ( -,North Atlantic. South Atlantic, Western Pacific, Indian Ocean etc.) during the SeaWIFS data period (1997 -- current) from this study will be presented and discussed. These results will highlight the value and impact of this unique product to climate studies

Hsu, N. Christina↗

NASA NTRS1976

Analysis and application of minimum variance discrete time system identification

An on-line minimum variance parameter identifier was developed which embodies both accuracy and computational efficiency. The new formulation resulted in a linear estimation problem with both additive and multiplicative noise. The resulting filter is shown to utilize both the covariance of the parameter vector itself and the covariance of the error in identification. It is proven that the identification filter is mean square covergent and mean square consistent. The MV parameter identification scheme is then used to construct a stable state and parameter estimation algorithm.

Kotob, S.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Orbit Determination Adaptations for the Cassini Grand Finale

satellite encounters. Over this period, there have been several papers describing the orbit determination process and performance up through 2016 [1-5]. In April of 2017, Cassini will enter its Grand Finale mission phase when it will traverse the gap between the D-ring and the Saturn atmosphere twenty-two times before plunging deep into the atmosphere to end the mission. The lack of targeted satellite encounters during this period necessitates updates to the nominal Cassini Orbit Determination (OD) process. This paper describes these planned adaptations for the operation of the Grand Finale. During the Equinox and Solstice Mission Phase (2008-2016), navigation analysis has been divided into segments focused on two particular targeted satellite encounters, called an “arc”. Maneuvers in an arc were usually targeted to encounter B-plane position and time, so the OD state and covariance were mapped forward to the B-plane of the encounter within the arc. Trajectory dispersions during the Grand Finale need instead to be mapped to equator crossings and targeted Cartesian positions. In addition, trajectory arcs have typically covered a few orbital revolutions (~2-8 weeks), in order to span the time between two encounters. However, the Grand Finale will encompass five months of time without an encounter which necessitates an adjusted arc strategy. A modified arc strategy was developed based on OD behavior during long multi-rev periods between encounters in the year leading up to the Grand Finale. The OD covariance study conducted for the Grand Finale mission phase will also be examined.

Criddle, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS2020

Spatial Heterogeneity in CO2, CH4, and Energy Fluxes: Insights from Airborne Eddy Covariance Measurements Over the Mid-Atlantic Region

The exchange of carbon between the Earth’s atmosphere and biosphere influences the atmospheric abundances of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Airborne eddy covariance can quantify surface-atmosphere exchange from landscape-to-regional scales, offering a unique perspective on carbon cycle dynamics. We use extensive airborne measurements to quantify fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, CO2, and CH4across multiple ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic region during September 2016 and May 2017. In conjunction with footprint analysis and land cover information, we use the airborne dataset to explore the effects of landscape heterogeneity on measured fluxes. Our results demonstrate large variability in CO2 uptake over mixed agricultural and forested sites, with fluxes ranging from -3.4 ± 0.7 to -11.5 ± 1.6μmol m-2s-1 for croplands and -9.1 ± 1.5 to -22.7 ± 3.2μmol m-2s-1for forests. We also report substantial CH4emissions of 32.3 ± 17.0to 76.1 ± 29.4nmol m-2s-1 from a brackish herbaceous wetland and 58.4± 12.0 to 181.2 ± 36.8nmol m-2s-1 from a freshwater forested wetland. Comparison of ecosystem-specific aircraft observations with measurements from eddy covariance flux towers along the flight path demonstrate that towers capture ~30–75% of the regional variability in ecosystem fluxes. Diel patterns measured at the tower sites suggest that peak, midday flux measurements from aircraft accurately predicts net daily CO2exchange. We discuss next steps in applying airborne observations to evaluate bottom-up flux models and improve understanding of the biophysical processes that drive carbon exchange from landscape-to-regional scales.

airborne measurements to quantify fluxes of sensib↗

NASA NTRS1991

Analysis of global cloud imagery from multiple satellites

IR measurements simultaneously conducted by four GEO and two polar-orbit satellites have been used to create synoptic global cloud-field images. The composite Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), with 0.5-deg horizontal resolution and 3-hr temporal resolution, constitute a nearly instantaneous snapshot of the global cloud pattern. To facilitate analysis of global cloud behavior, the GCI has been constructed with certain homogeneous properties. An interactive Image Analysis System (IAS) is developed in order to investigate the space-time behavior of global cloud activity. Due to its customized architecture and the homogeneous properties of the GCI, the IAS can perform space-time covariance analyses of the three-dimensional data with 'interactive' speed. Statistical properties of cloud variability are given.

Salby, Murry L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An interactive system for analysis of global cloud imagery

Synoptic images of the global cloud pattern composited from six contemporaneous satellites provide an unprecedented view of the global cloud field. Having horizontal resolution of about 0.5 deg and temporal resolution of 3 h, the global cloud imagery (GCI) resolves most of the variability of organized convection, including several harmonics of the diurnal cycle. Although the GCI has these attractive features, the dense and 3D nature of that data make it a formidable volume of information to treat in a practical and efficient manner. An interactive image-analysis system (IAS) has been developed to investigate the space-time variability of global cloud behavior. In the IAS, data, hardware, and software are integrated into a single system providing a variety of space-time covariance analyses in a menu-driven format. Owing to its customized architecture and certain homogeneous properties of the GCI, the IAS calculates such quantities effectively. Many covariance statistics are derived from 3D data with interactive speed, allowing the user to interrogate the archive iteratively in a single session. The 3D nature of those analyses and the speed with which they are performed distinguish the IAS from conventional image processing of 2D data.

Woodberry, Karen↗

NASA NTRS1996

Flight data results of estimate fusion for spacecraft rendezvous navigation from shuttle mission STS-69

A recently developed rendezvous navigation fusion filter that optimally exploits existing distributed filters for rendezvous and GPS navigation to achieve the relative and inertial state accuracies of both in a global solution is utilized here to process actual flight data. Space Shuttle Mission STS-69 was the first mission to date which gathered data from both the rendezvous and Global Positioning System filters allowing, for the first time, a test of the fusion algorithm with real flight data. Furthermore, a precise best estimate of trajectory is available for portions of STS-69, making possible a check on the performance of the fusion filter. In order to successfully carry out this experiment with flight data, two extensions to the existing scheme were necessary: a fusion edit test based on differences between the filter state vectors, and an underweighting scheme to accommodate the suboptimal perfect target assumption made by the Shuttle rendezvous filter. With these innovations, the flight data was successfully fused from playbacks of downlinked and/or recorded measurement data through ground analysis versions of the Shuttle rendezvous filter and a GPS filter developed for another experiment. The fusion results agree with the best estimate of trajectory at approximately the levels of uncertainty expected from the fusion filter's covariance matrix.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2016

Control Systems with Normalized and Covariance Adaptation by Optimal Control Modification

Disclosed is a novel adaptive control method and system called optimal control modification with normalization and covariance adjustment. The invention addresses specifically to current challenges with adaptive control in these areas: 1) persistent excitation, 2) complex nonlinear input-output mapping, 3) large inputs and persistent learning, and 4) the lack of stability analysis tools for certification. The invention has been subject to many simulations and flight testing. The results substantiate the effectiveness of the invention and demonstrate the technical feasibility for use in modern aircraft flight control systems.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗