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At least 487 records · Page 27

State of the art, gaps, and prospects in fusion materials theory and modelling

Advancing the theory and simulation of materials for fusion applications remains a key component of global roadmaps aimed at delivering much-needed fusion power. Especially as the drive for commercial application increases, prototypes must be designed against radiation damage before the relevant experimental data can be collected and cost reductions that are possible by testing materials in silico become even more important. Here, we summarise the state of the art as it emerged during the 7 th Fusion Materials Theory & Modelling Workshop that took place in 2024, with the aim to highlight present gaps and future directions for the fusion materials modelling community. Of particular interest were the effects of transmutations, chemical complexity with the development of novel alloys and interatomic potentials, advancements in modelling high-dose microstructures, comparison with experimental data and multiscale models for structural assessment relying on high-performance computing and virtual reality.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Dynamic performance of a passively self-adjusting floating wind farm layout to increase the annual energy production

One of the main differences between floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) and fixed-bottom turbines is the angular and translational motions of FOWTs. When it comes to planning a floating wind farm (FWF), the translational motions introduce an additional layer of complexity to the FWF layout. The ability of a FOWT to relocate its position represents an opportunity to mitigate wake losses within an FWF. By passively relocating downwind turbines out of the wake generated by upwind turbines, we can reduce wake-induced energy losses and enhance overall energy production. The translational movements of FOWTs are governed by the mooring system attached to it. The way a FOWT relocates its position changes if the design of the mooring system attached to it changes. Additionally, the translational motion of a FOWT attached to a given mooring system is different for different wind directions. Hence, we can tailor a mooring system design for a FOWT to passively control its motions according to the wind direction. In this work, we present a new self-adjusting FWF layout design and assess its performance using both static and dynamic methods. The results show that relocating the FOWTs in an FWF can increase the energy production by 3 % using a steady-state wake model and 1.4 % using a dynamic wake model at a wind speed of 10 m s -1 . Moreover, we compare the fatigue and ultimate loads of the mooring systems of the self-adjusting FWF layout design to the mooring systems in a current state-of-the-art FWF baseline design. The comparison shows that with smaller mooring system diameters, the self-adjusting FWF design has similar fatigue damage compared to the baseline design with bigger mooring system diameters at rated wind speed. Finally, the ultimate loads on the mooring systems of the self-adjusting FWF design are lower than those on the mooring systems of the baseline design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Acoustic-based monitoring and machine learning of component status for microreactor applications

This report provides a description and assessment of recent efforts to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models in order to enhance structural health monitoring capabilities for nuclear microreactors. With resilient embedded sensors in development by others supported by programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy, the work described herein builds upon ongoing efforts to improve non-destructive testing technology that relates measured acoustic signatures to component stresses and/or structural defects, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning architectures. The experimental procedure remained similar to that developed for the previous year’s demonstration of damage detection by the authors, with the same damaged sample tested under similar applied stress conditions. Notably, a new mounting fixture was designed and implemented to improve measurement consistency and a more sophisticated laser Doppler vibrometer was employed to make high-fidelity vibration measurements. Two nominally identical sets of training data were collected for each experimental setup to better understand the repeatability of the experiment and to better test the generality of trained neural network models. Additionally, we obtained new high-quality 3D mode shapes of the damaged test article at various stress and excitation levels, providing greater insights into the physical response of the sample during testing. Previously, we demonstrated that a machine learning model based on a convolutional neural network can predict structural details of an artificially introduced interface (intact, rough cut, smooth cut), and the applied torque level. In this study, we have transitioned to graph-based neural network architectures to better develop and test a flexible framework that is more suitable to being transferred away from controlled benchtop experiments and into more applied settings where less-structured data inputs may be expected. In general, performance testing of a graph neural network on frequency-domain representations of the data indicates strong and consistent identification of test conditions for datasets recorded on damaged components. With goals of predicting damage location and other changing experimental conditions using limited datasets, predictive models using a graph neural network architecture correctly predicted the applied torque level with an accuracy of 85% using only a single measurement point and predicted within one torque level in 95% of test windows. Predictions of damage location had limited success due to the symmetry and minimal number of the damage scenarios presented during model training. Results were ambiguous as to whether the model could detect the location of the artificial damage, or if it was instead learning the location of a given measurement point on the part and subsequently detecting which points were closest to the location of the damage. This finding will be factored into upcoming planned work on damaged graphite components, where new experimental tests with a larger number and variety of damage scenarios are expected to provide improved validation of recent developments in monitoring methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

X‐ray scattering reveals disordered linkers and dynamic interfaces in complexes and mechanisms for DNA double‐strand break repair impacting cell and cancer biology

Abstract Evolutionary selection ensures specificity and efficiency in dynamic metastable macromolecular machines that repair DNA damage without releasing toxic and mutagenic intermediates. Here we examine non‐homologous end joining (NHEJ) as the primary conserved DNA double‐strand break (DSB) repair process in human cells. NHEJ has exemplary key roles in networks determining the development, outcome of cancer treatments by DSB‐inducing agents, generation of antibody and T‐cell receptor diversity, and innate immune response for RNA viruses. We determine mechanistic insights into NHEJ structural biochemistry focusing upon advanced small angle X‐ray scattering (SAXS) results combined with X‐ray crystallography (MX) and cryo‐electron microscopy (cryo‐EM). SAXS coupled to atomic structures enables integrated structural biology for objective quantitative assessment of conformational ensembles and assemblies in solution, intra‐molecular distances, structural similarity, functional disorder, conformational switching, and flexibility. Importantly, NHEJ complexes in solution undergo larger allosteric transitions than seen in their cryo‐EM or MX structures. In the long‐range synaptic complex, X‐ray repair cross‐complementing 4 (XRCC4) plus XRCC4‐like‐factor (XLF) form a flexible bridge and linchpin for DNA ends bound to KU heterodimer (Ku70/80) and DNA‐PKcs (DNA‐dependent protein kinase catalytic subunit). Upon binding two DNA ends, auto‐phosphorylation opens DNA‐PKcs dimer licensing NHEJ via concerted conformational transformations of XLF‐XRCC4, XLF–Ku80, and LigIV BRCT –Ku70 interfaces. Integrated structures reveal multifunctional roles for disordered linkers and modular dynamic interfaces promoting DSB end processing and alignment into the short‐range complex for ligation by LigIV. Integrated findings define dynamic assemblies fundamental to designing separation‐of‐function mutants and allosteric inhibitors targeting conformational transitions in multifunctional complexes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The RAM-SCB model and its applications to advance space weather forecasting

Energetic particle fluxes that are part of the Earth’s ring current and radiation belts can intensify significantly during space weather events like geomagnetic storms and could cause severe damage to satellite-based technologies. Understanding the physical processes that control their dynamics and improving our capability for their prediction is thus extremely important. In the context of space weather applications and user needs, this paper provides a brief description of our kinetic ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB) and its further extension to implement a self-consistent electric (E) field. Specific examples that demonstrate RAM-SCB capabilities and limitations to reproduce the near-Earth space weather environment are given. In this paper, the current status of RAM-SCB is assessed and plans for its further improvement are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Remaining Life Determination

This project developed and demonstrated the capability of nondestructive evaluation methods for detecting early stage fatigue damage in grey cast iron metal. Non-collinear ultrasonic wave mixing and laser speckle differentiation were the primary technologies evaluated on custom fatigue specimens having properties specified by Caterpillar, Inc. The ultrasonic method showed the greatest potential for estimating the remaining fatigue life in grey cast iron, which may provide remanufacturers with a level of confidence when fielding used component cores in high-stress applications. While successes were realized during this project, there are still follow-on research tasks required to prove the commercial applicability of the methods. The following report sections document the steps completed during the project and an assessment of the technologies applied.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessment of thermal and radiation induced creep in the dual cooled lead lithium blanket

The creep in recently designed blanket for the fusion nuclear science facility is described by decomposing it into thermal, irradiation and cavity swelling creep. Initial estimates of thermal creep using elastic high temperature rules showed that the recent heat transfer improvements at the first wall (FW) is feasible, and the FW can withstand heat flux of 0.35 MW/m 2 at 3000 hrs without rupture. A viscoplastic model that is based on Norton's power law and relies on Multiphysics coupling of solid mechanics and heat transfer modules is used to capture the inelastic deformation in the blanket. Results showed that the design peak heat flux of 0.25 MW/m 2 produced maximum thermal creep strain of 0.45 % and the relaxation of the thermal stress at the FW. Irradiation creep is prescribed to be proportional to the displacement damage dose and applied stress. The displacements from irradiation creep radially decrease from the FW to the back wall, but the maximum deformation is found at the back wall that is connected to the Helium manifold due to the high stresses at the region. In conclusion, cavity swelling creep is dominant at steady state and combined with radiation creep to produce displacement of about 8 mm at the FW.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Hygrothermal Performance of Bio-Based Materials in Residential Building Wall Envelope Systems

In the United States, building envelope systems contribute approximately 28% of building energy consumption, with walls being a primary factor. As the construction industry explores new approaches to lower the energy intensity needed to manufacture materials and, in turn, reduce energy consumption, bio-based materials are gaining attention as a promising alternative. While prior studies have demonstrated that bio-based materials can decrease material energy intensity, their long-term hygrothermal behavior within a whole residential wall system is not yet fully understood. This study aims to evaluate the potential of replacing Oriented Strand Board (OSB) and drywall in residential wall systems with bio-based alternatives. The research focuses on two bio-based materials, assessing their hygrothermal performance under Chicago climate condition (Climate Zone 5). To achieve that, a series of laboratory experiments were conducted to measure key properties of the bio-based materials such as thickness, dimensions, density, thermal conductivity (as a function of temperature and humidity), moisture-dependent permeance and water vapor permeability (WVP), and sorption isotherms. These properties were then used in WUFI® simulations to predict the moisture durability of a standard residential wall system in Climate Zone 5. Results show that substituting OSB and drywall with bio-based materials can achieve acceptable moisture durability, effectively mitigating risks of mold growth and structural damage over time.

Palani, Hevar [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000220211994)↗

Green synthesis and characterization of nontoxic L-methionine capped silver and gold nanoparticles

The simple green method for synthesis of stable L-Methionine (L-Met) capped silver (Ag@LM NPs) and gold (Au@LM NPs) nanoparticles (NPs) without adding any additional reduction agent or stabilizer was developed. Colloidal dispersions were characterized by UV–Vis spectrophotometry. The size and spherical shape of NPs were evaluated by transmission electron microscopy. Their surface covering was confirmed by atomic force microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering, and zeta potential measurements. Density functional theory calculations pointed that the preferential adsorption mode of L-Met on both Ag and Au surfaces was a vertical binding geometry via –NH2 group, while horizontal binding mode via [sbnd]S[sbnd] and –NH2 groups is also possible. The genotoxicity (evaluated by the micronucleus assay) of NPs, as well as their effects on some oxidative stress parameters (catalase activity, malondialdehyde level), were assessed in vitro using human peripheral blood cells as a model system. The influence of NPs on the morphology of lymphocyte cells studied using atomic force microscopy revealed that the membrane of cells remained unaffected after the treatment with NPs. When considering the effects of NPs on catalase activity and malondialdehyde level, neither particle type promoted oxidative stress. However, the treatment of lymphocytes with Ag@LM NPs induced a concentration-dependent enhancement of the micronuclei incidence and suppression of the cell proliferation while Au@LM NPs promoted cell proliferation, with no significant effects on micronuclei formation. The Ag@LM NPs were more prone to induce DNA damage than Au@LM NPs, which makes the latter type more suitable for further studies in nano-medicine. © 2019.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Effects of Transient Purge Flow on Stator-Rotor Seal Performance

Abstract As modern engine designs target higher efficiencies through increased turbine inlet temperatures, critical turbine components are at increased risk of damage from conditions exceeding material melting temperatures. In particular, improperly designed underplatform hardware components are susceptible to damage when hot main gas path flow is ingested into the stator-rotor cavity. While all turbines inherently experience transients during operation, a majority of publicly available turbine studies have been executed using steady operating conditions or inherently transient “blowdown” rigs. For this reason, routine transient events are not well understood. To address this need, the present study utilized a combined experimental and computational approach. The test article is a continuous-duration, one-stage test turbine operating with true-scale engine hardware and seal geometries at engine-representative flow conditions. The nature of the continuous-duration facility uniquely supports the direct assessment of transient events through its ability to transition between steady-state operating conditions. The effects of a transient purge flow were investigated in this study to identify general trends for transient events in a full-scale engine. Results from multiple measurement techniques in the wheelspace region show an interdependence of transient purge flow with a thermal lag of the underplatform hardware. Through experiments conducted at different coolant-to-main gas path temperature ratios, the use of pressure measurements as an indicator of fully purged behavior was introduced, and a thermally driven influence on rim seal performance was quantified. The computational results show good agreement with experimental pressure measurements and provide insight into the physical mechanisms that drive the relationship between pressure and sealing effectiveness measurements observed for the tested geometry.

Engineering↗

Mixture Model Framework for Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis Using Heterogeneous Clinical and Outcome Data

Prognoses of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) outcomes are neither easily nor accurately determined from clinical indicators. This is due in part to the heterogeneity of damage inflicted to the brain, ultimately resulting in diverse and complex outcomes. Using a data-driven approach on many distinct data elements may be necessary to describe this large set of outcomes and thereby robustly depict the nuanced differences among TBI patients’ recovery. In this work, we develop a method for modeling large heterogeneous data types relevant to TBI. Our approach is geared toward the probabilistic representation of mixed continuous and discrete variables with missing values. The model is trained on a dataset encompassing a variety of data types, including demographics, blood-based biomarkers, and imaging findings. In addition, it includes a set of clinical outcome assessments at 3, 6, and 12 months post-injury. The model is used to stratify patients into distinct groups in an unsupervised learning setting. We use the model to infer outcomes using input data, and show that the collection of input data reduces uncertainty of outcomes over a baseline approach. In addition, we quantify the performance of a likelihood scoring technique that can be used to self-evaluate the extrapolation risk of prognosis on unseen patients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Transient recovery problem in acoustics: A multichannel model-based deconvolution approach

Critical acoustical systems operating in complex environments contaminated with disturbances and noise offer an extreme challenge when excited by out-of-the-ordinary, impulsive, transient events that can be undetected and seriously affect their overall performance. Transient impulse excitations must be detected, extracted, and evaluated to determine any potential system damage that could have been imposed; therefore, the problem of recovering the excitation in an uncertain measurement environment becomes one of multichannel deconvolution. Recovering a transient and its initial energy has not been solved satisfactorily, especially when the measurement has been truncated and only a small segment of response data is available. The development of multichannel deconvolution techniques for both complete and incomplete excitation data is discussed, employing a model-based approach based on the state-space representation of an identified acoustical system coupled to a forward modeling solution and a Kalman-type processor for enhancement and extraction. In conclusion, synthesized data are utilized to assess the feasibility of the various approaches, demonstrating that reasonable performance can be achieved even in noisy environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High Throughput In-Line Coating Metrology Development for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Manufacturing

Coatings play key roles in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack durability. For example, diffusion barrier coatings on Cr-containing interconnect and balance of plant (BOP) components protect electrodes from Cr poisoning over the long operational lifetimes (>10,000 hours) of the fuel cell stack. Common defects in coatings, such as cracks, pinholes, and porosity, result in a failure to protect the electrodes, resulting in shorter operational lifetime and thus higher cost. It is very unlikely, even in the best coating process, that all these defects can be mitigated, hence identifying critical defects in parts, and removing defective parts from production before they can damage the stack, becomes paramount. Furthermore, these quality control techniques must be operational in the production/assembly line (in-line), i.e., high throughput and non-destructive, and cost effective. Redox Power Systems, LLC (Redox) together with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed much needed high throughput, in-line metrology techniques for protective coatings. The overall goal of the project is to lower cost while increasing robustness, reliability, and endurance of SOFC stacks. To accomplish this, we had several objectives, including: to identify key coating and substrate defects that lead to coating failure through the use of detailed characterization methods (e.g., microscopy, XRD, EDS, electrochemistry); to assess capabilities of in-line metrology techniques, e.g., optical profilometry (Redox) and thermography (NREL), to probe these defects, or evidence thereof; demonstrate long-term performance of “defect-free” protective coatings, as identified by in-line metrology, in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack operation. In the first part of this project, the ability to identify key defects expected to lead to coating and SOFC degradation using in-line metrology tools were evaluated. Coated interconnect samples with controlled defect types and populations were tested under conditions similar to SOFC operation, followed by detailed post-test analysis to reveal the defects responsible for observed degradation. In the second part of the project, the optimal in-line metrology techniques and methodologies were used to map the defect distribution in full-size interconnects with critical defects intentionally allowed to exist in some cases. These interconnects underwent SOFC testing for extended periods (up to ~3,000 hours) followed by post-test analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of in-line metrology techniques in mitigating MCO coating related degradation. Key accomplishments in this project included the following: Demonstrated ASR of < 0.05 ohm-cm 2 at 650 °C for 1,000 hours with low defect (determined by in-line metrology) interconnect samples (average ASR=37 milliohms-cm 2 after over 1,000 hours). Demonstrated that low defect coatings on interconnects (as screened using in-line metrology) have low volatilization of chromium at ~650 °C for 1,000 hours as detected using Cr-getter material (< 5 at% increase above baseline); 1022 hour duration tests under humidified, elevated temperature (750 °C rather than 650 °C) compared a base case against different coating thicknesses. Demonstrated capability to identify initial key defects of interest with in-line metrology techniques using up to 8 cm by 10 cm having coatings with and without intentional defects of interest using thermal imaging and optical profilometry. Correlated key defects identified using metrology techniques with observed coating performance (e.g., ASR and Cr volatility). Conducted several 4 cm by 4 cm cell tests using MCO-interconnects that were pre-screened using some of the metrology techniques developed in the project (e.g., optical profilometry). An analysis of ASR measurements were able to show that defect-free coatings resulted in the anticipated performance in the cell tests.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Characterization of partial wetting by CMAS droplets using multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics and data-driven discovery based on PINNs

The molten sand that is a mixture of calcia, magnesia, alumina and silicate, known as CMAS, is characterized by its high viscosity, density and surface tension. The unique properties of CMAS make it a challenging material to deal with in high-temperature applications, requiring innovative solutions and materials to prevent its buildup and damage to critical equipment. Here, we use multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics simulations to study the wetting dynamics of highly viscous molten CMAS droplets. The simulations are performed in three dimensions, with varying initial droplet sizes and equilibrium contact angles. We propose a parametric ordinary differential equation (ODE) that captures the spreading radius behaviour of the CMAS droplets. The ODE parameters are then identified based on the physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework. Subsequently, the closed-form dependency of parameter values found by the PINN on the initial radii and contact angles are given using symbolic regression. Finally, we employ Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) to assess and quantify the uncertainty associated with the discovered parameters. In brief, this study provides insight into spreading dynamics of CMAS droplets by fusing simple parametric ODE modelling and state-of-the-art machine-learning techniques.

Mechanics↗

Radiation characterization summary for the WSMR fast burst reactor environment at the 6-inch location

The characterization of the neutron, prompt gamma-ray, and delayed gamma-ray radiation fields for the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) Fast Burst Reactor, also known as molybdenum-alloy Godiva (Molly-G) has been assessed at the 6-inch irradiation location. The neutron energy spectra, uncertainties, and common radiation metrics are presented. Code-dependent recommended constants are given to facilitate the conversion of various dosimetry readings into radiation metrics desired by experimenters. The Molly-G core was designed and configured similarly to Godiva II, as an unreflected, unmoderated, cylindrical annulus of uranium-molybdenum-alloy fuel with molybdenum loading of 10%. At the 6-inch position, the axial fluence maximum is about 2.4×10 13 n/cm 2 per MJ of reactor energy; about 0.1% of the neutron fluence is below 1 keV and 96% is above 100 keV. The 1-MeV Damage-Equivalent Silicon (DES) fluence is estimated at 2.2×10 13 n/cm 2 per MJ of reactor energy. The prompt gamma-ray dose is roughly 2.5E+03 rad(Si) per MJ and the delayed gamma-ray dose is about 1.3E+03 rad(Si) per MJ.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Designing a repository in domal salt: The influence of design variants in different modelling environments

To understand the long-term environmental impact of disposing radioactive waste of in a deep geological repository and to optimise its design, performance assessments are used. In this study, four teams (COVRA, GRS, Quintessa, and DOE) modified the previously developed generic repository of DECOVALEX task F2 to identify commonalities and differences between the teams for specific changes in repository design. The teams tested six design modifications: (1) Replacing concrete abutments with run-of-mine salt; (2) Replacing the salt seal with a concrete abutment and using run-of-mine salt instead for the two concrete abutments in each drift seal; (3) Halving the size of the infrastructure area; (4) Using run-of-mine salt instead of gravel for backfilling the infrastructure area; (5) Disposal of spent nuclear fuel without the POLLUX-10 containers (6); Lower initial saturation of the spent nuclear fuel and vitrified waste disposal drifts. Despite different modelling strategies used, models agreed that a smaller infrastructure area has a limited effect on radionuclide transport. Responses to the absence of the two concrete abutments in each seal, the use of single large concrete abutments (200 m each), or the use of run-of-mine salt in the infrastructure area differ between teams due to differing modelling assumptions. Based on these results, the estimated efficacy of containment depends strongly on the model assumptions of each team. More specifically, it appears to depend on the compaction model used and therefore on the backfill material used in different areas of the repository. However, the drift seal appears to be a critical design element in all models, effectively limiting radionuclide transport by hydrologically disconnecting sections of the repository. Additional beneficial design choices include the use of dry salt in disposal drifts to limit radionuclide transport and reducing the infrastructure area costs and minimizing host rock damage.

DECOVALEX↗