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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Arctic Impact Identification with Less Data Using Variable Relationships: An Exploratory Express LDRD project.

Regional impacts from sea ice loss can be challenging to separate from internal climate variability, potentially requiring thousands of ensemble members. East Asian wintertime cooling has been linked to sea ice loss from present day conditions in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project with these large ensemble counts. This cooling is theorized to arise from a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Jet response. The strengthened Siberian High can be detected with one fifth the ensemble members needed for the East Asian wintertime cooling in a single model. We thus hypothesize that leveraging relationships between multiple variables in a conditional pathways-based approach would reduce the number of required ensemble members to conclusively attribute East Asian wintertime cooling to future sea ice concentrations. In all analyzed cases, confidence was increased when evaluating sea ice loss’s responsibility for the joint effects of East Asian cooling, East Asian Jet strengthening, and Siberian High strengthening over just East Asian cooling. However, we were not able to confidently attribute future East Asian wintertime cooling to sea ice loss in a single model. We found that significant intra-ensemble variability within single Earth System Models (ESMs) produced highly uncertain forcing response models upon which attribution results were undermined. We were able to show that ensemble mean seasonally averaged metrics from multiple ESMs greatly improved the accuracy of the forcing response linear models and exposed the necessity of all three steps in the pathway (sea ice area, Siberian High pressure, and East Asian Jet speed) for accurate prediction of East Asian wintertime cooling. Although all three steps were necessary, East Asian wintertime cooling possesses a large dependence on the Siberian High pressure, which weakens the confidence associated with overall strong joint-attribution comparing present day and future scenarios. We believe transitioning the pathway nodes to relative changes between the Siberian High and Aleutian Low as well as between the midlatitude westerlies and subtropical jet in the East Asianj Jet region may be able to produce significant attribution more fully dependent upon all three steps. Ultimately, this research demonstrates the simple extensibility of conditional pathways-based attribution to sea ice loss forcing on the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Middle Atmosphere Program. Handbook for MAP, volume 28

Extended abstracts from the fourth workshop on the technical and scientific aspects of MST (mesosphere stratosphere troposphere) radar are presented. Individual sessions addressed the following topics: meteorological applications of MST and ST radars, networks, and campaigns; dynamics of the equatorial middle atmosphere; interpretation of radar returns from clear air; techniques for studying gravity waves and turbulence; intercomparison and calibration of wind and wave measurements at various frequencies; progress in existing and planned MST and ST radars; hardware design for MST and ST radars and boundary layer/lower troposphere profilers; signal processing; and data management.

Liu, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

Ko, Malcolm↗
NASA NTRS2001

Platform and Environmental Effects on Above- and In-Water Determinations of Water-Leaving Radiances

A comparison of above- and in-water spectral measurements in Case-1 conditions showed the uncertainty in above-water determinations of water-leaving radiances depended on the pointing angle of the above-water instruments with respect to the side of the ship. Two above-water methods were used to create a diagnostic variable to quantify the presence of superstructure reflections which degraded the above-water intracomparisons of water-leaving radiances by 10.9-33.4% (for far-to-near viewing distances, respectively). The primary conclusions of the above- and in-water intercomparison of water-leaving radiances were as follows: a) the SeaWiFS 5% radiometric objective was achieved with the above-water approach, but reliably with only one method and only for about half the data; b) a decrease in water-leaving radiance values was seen in the presence of swell, although, wave crests were radiometrically brighter than the troughs; and c) standard band ratios used in ocean color algorithms remained severely affected, because of the relatively low signal and, thus, proportionally significant contamination at the 555nm wavelength.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
NASA NTRS2021

ACIX-Aqua: A Global Assessment of Atmospheric Correction Methods for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 Over Lakes, Rivers, and Coastal Waters

Atmospheric correction over inland and coastal waters is one of the major remaining challenges in aquatic remote sensing, often hindering the quantitative retrieval of biogeochemical variables and analysis of their spatial and temporal variability within aquatic environments. The Atmospheric Correction Intercomparison Exercise (ACIX-Aqua), a joint NASA – ESA activity, was initiated to enable a thorough evaluation of eight state-of-the-art atmospheric correction (AC) processors available for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data processing. Over 1000 radiometric matchups from both freshwaters (rivers, lakes, reservoirs) and coastal waters were utilized to examine the quality of derived aquatic reflectances (ρ̂w). This dataset originated from two sources: Data gathered from the international scientific community (henceforth called Community Validation Database, CVD), which captured predominantly inland water observations, and the Ocean Color component of AERONET measurements (AERONET-OC), representing primarily coastal ocean environments. This volume of data permitted the evaluation of the AC processors individually (using all the matchups) and comparatively (across seven different Optical Water Types, OWTs) using common matchups. We found that the performance of the AC processors differed for CVD and AERONET-OC matchups, likely reflecting inherent variability in aquatic and atmospheric properties between the two datasets. For the former, the median errors in ρ̂w560 and ρ̂w664 were found to range from 20 to 30% for best-performing processors. Using the AERONET-OC matchups, our performance assessments showed that median errors within the 15–30% range in these spectral bands may be achieved. The largest uncertainties were associated with the blue bands (25 to 60%) for best-performing processors considering both CVD and AERONET-OC assessments. We further assessed uncertainty propagation to the downstream products such as near-surface concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chla) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS). Using satellite matchups from the CVD along with in situ Chla and TSS, we found that 20–30% uncertainties in ρ̂w490≤λ≤743nm yielded 25–70% uncertainties in derived Chla and TSS products for top-performing AC processors. We summarize our results using performance matrices guiding the satellite user community through the OWT-specific relative performance of AC processors. Our analysis stresses the need for better representation of aerosols, particularly absorbing ones, and improvements in corrections for sky- (or sun-) glint and adjacency effects, in order to achieve higher quality downstream products in freshwater and coastal ecosystems.

Nima Pahlevan↗
NASA NTRS2010

NICMOS Spectroscopy of HD 189733b

Spectral features corresponding to methane and water opacity were reported based on transmission spectroscopy of HD 189733b with Hubble/NICMOS. Recently, these data, and a similar data set for XO-1b, have been reexamined in Gibson et al. 2010, who claim they cannot reliably reproduce prior results. We examine the methods used by the Gibson team and identify two specific issues that could act to increase the formal uncertainties and to create instability in the minimization process. This would also be consistent with the GPA10 finding that they could not identify a way to select among the several instrument models they constructed. In the case of XO-1b, the Gibson team significantly changed the way in which the instrument model is defined (both with respect to the three approaches they used for HD 189733b, and the approach used by previous authors); this change, which omits the effect of the spectrum position on the detector, makes direct intercomparison of results difficult. In the experience of our group, the position of the spectrum on the detector is an important element of the instrument model because of the significant residual structure in the NICMOS spectral flat field. The approach of changing instrument models significantly complicates understanding the data reduction process and interpreting the results. Our team favors establishing a consistent method of handling NICMOS instrument systematic errors and applying it uniformly to data sets.

infrared↗
NASA NTRS2003

MOBY, A Radiometric Buoy for Performance Monitoring and Vicarious Calibration of Satellite Ocean Color Sensors: Measurement and Data Analysis Protocols

The Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY) is the centerpiece of the primary ocean measurement site for calibration of satellite ocean color sensors based on independent in situ measurements. Since late 1996, the time series of normalized water-leaving radiances L(sub WN)(lambda) determined from the array of radiometric sensors attached to MOBY are the primary basis for the on-orbit calibrations of the USA Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), the Japanese Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS), the French Polarization Detection Environmental Radiometer (POLDER), the German Modular Optoelectronic Scanner on the Indian Research Satellite (IRS1-MOS), and the USA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). The MOBY vicarious calibration L(sub WN)(lambda) reference is an essential element in the international effort to develop a global, multi-year time series of consistently calibrated ocean color products using data from a wide variety of independent satellite sensors. A longstanding goal of the SeaWiFS and MODIS (Ocean) Science Teams is to determine satellite-derived L(sub WN)(labda) with a relative combined standard uncertainty of 5 %. Other satellite ocean color projects and the Sensor Intercomparison for Marine Biology and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project have also adopted this goal, at least implicitly. Because water-leaving radiance contributes at most 10 % of the total radiance measured by a satellite sensor above the atmosphere, a 5 % uncertainty in L(sub WN)(lambda) implies a 0.5 % uncertainty in the above-atmosphere radiance measurements. This level of uncertainty can only be approached using vicarious-calibration approaches as described below. In practice, this means that the satellite radiance responsivity is adjusted to achieve the best agreement, in a least-squares sense, for the L(sub WN)(lambda) results determined using the satellite and the independent optical sensors (e.g. MOBY). The end result of this approach is to implicitly absorb unquantified, but systematic, errors in the atmospheric correction, incident solar flux, and satellite sensor calibration into a single correction factor to produce consistency with the in situ data.

Clark, Dennis K.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing of Evapotranspiration over the Central Arizona Irrigation and Drainage District, USA

Knowledge of baseline water use for irrigated crops in the U.S. Southwest is important for understanding how much water is consumed under normal farm management and to help manage scarce resources. Remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET) is an effective way to gain that knowledge: multispectral data can provide synoptic and time-repetitive estimates of crop-specific water use, and could be especially useful for this arid region because of dominantly clear skies and minimal precipitation. Although multiple remote sensing ET approaches have been developed and tested, there is not consensus on which of them should be preferred because there are still few intercomparison studies within this environment. To help build the experience needed to gain consensus, a remote sensing study using three ET models was conducted over the Central Arizona Irrigation and Drainage District (CAIDD). Aggregated ET was assessed for 137 wheat plots (winter/spring crop), 183 cotton plots (summer crop), and 225 alfalfa plots (year-round). The employed models were the Satellite-Based Energy Balance for Mapping Evapotranspiration with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), the Two Source Energy Balance (TSEB), and Vegetation Index ET for the US Southwest (VISW). Remote sensing data were principally Landsat 5, supplemented by Landsat 7, MODIS Terra, MODIS Aqua, and ASTER. Using district-wide model averages, seasonal use (excluding surface evaporation) was 742 mm (millimeters) for wheat, 983 mm for cotton, and 1427 mm for alfalfa. All three models produced similar daily ET for wheat, with 6-8 mm per day mid-season. Model estimates diverged for cotton and alfalfa sites. Considering ET over cotton, TSEB estimates were 9.5 mm per day, METRIC 6 mm per day, and VISW 8 mm per day. For alfalfa, the ET values from TSEB were 8.0 mm per day, METRIC 5 mm per day, and VISW 6 mm per day. Lack of local validation information unfortunately made it impossible to rank model performance. However, by averaging results from all of them, ET model outliers could be identified. They ranged from minus 10 percent to plus 18 percent, values that represent expected ET modeling discrepancies. Relative to the model average, standardized ET-estimators - potential ET (ET (sub 0)), FAO-56 ET, and USDA-SW gravimetric-ET - showed still greater deviations, up to 35 percent of annual crop water use for summer and year-round crops, suggesting that remote sensing of actual ET could lead to significantly improved estimates of crop water use. Results from this study highlight the need for conducting multi-model experiments during summer-months over sites with independent ground validation.

Alfalfa↗
NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of Raman Lidar and radiosonde measurements from the AWEX-G field campaign and its relation to Aqua validation

Early work within the Aqua validation activity revealed there to be large differences in water vapor measurement accuracy among the various technologies in use for providing validation data. The validation measurements were made at globally distributed sites making it difficult to isolate the sources of the apparent measurement differences among the various sensors, which included both Raman lidar and radiosonde. Because of this, the AIRS Water Vapor Experiment-Ground (AWEX-G) was held in October - November, 2003 with the goal of bringing validation technologies to a common site for intercomparison and resolution of the measurement discrepancies. Using the University of Colorado Cryogenic Frostpoint Hygrometer (CFH) as the water vapor reference, the AWEX-G field campaign resulted in new correction techniques for both Raman lidar, Vaisala RS80-H and RS90/92 measurements that significantly improve the absolute accuracy of those measurement systems particularly in the upper troposphere. Mean comparisons of radiosondes and lidar are performed demonstrating agreement between corrected sensors and the CFH to generally within 5% thereby providing data of sufficient accuracy for Aqua validation purposes. Examples of the use of the correction techniques in radiance and retrieval comparisons are provided and discussed.

Whiteman, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS2023

AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation for Global Wheat

The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗
NASA NTRS1987

Equatorial ozone profiles from the ground to 52 km during the Southern Hemisphere autumn

The results of an ozone measurement campaign conducted at Natal, Brazil from March 25 to April 15, 1985 are reported. Complete profiles of ozone, pressure, and temperature were obtained from the ground to 52 km, and all of the profiles correspond with site overpasses by ozone instruments on NASA and NOAA satellites. The profiles from this measurement series show reasonable agreement with established satellite climatologies. Stratospheric ozone variability was 2 percent or less during the 3 weeks of the measurement campaign, with stratospheric temperature and pressure variabilities half that amount. Low variability at a single location for this period implies comparable uniformity for ozone profiles over a large area around the measurement site. The auxiliary pressure and temperature profiles presented here allow the use of this data set as a transfer standard between satellite instruments with different fundamental ozone measurements. Finally, the low ozone variability in the stratosphere at Natal during this measurement series should provide an opportunity for high-quality intercomparisons of measured and modeled ozone concentrations in the equatorial stratosphere and lower mesosphere as well as a consistency check among satellite ozone measurements.

Barnes, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Comparison of satellite derived dynamical quantities in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere

The proceedings are summarized from a pre-MASH planning workshop on the intercomparison of Southern Hemisphere observations, analyses and derived dynamical quantities held in Williamsburg, Virginia during April 1986. The aims of this workshop were primarily twofold: (1) comparison of Southern Hemisphere dynamical quantities derived from various satellite data archives (e.g., from limb scanners and nadir sounders); and (2) assessing the impact of different base-level height information on such derived quantities. These tasks are viewed as especially important in the Southern Hemisphere because of the paucity of conventional measurements. A further strong impetus for the MASH program comes from the recent discovery of the springtime ozone hold over Antarctica. Insight gained from validation studies such as the one reported here will contribute to an improved understanding of the role of meteorology in the development and evolution of the hold, in its interannual variability, and in its interhemispheric differences. The dynamical quantities examined in this workshop included geopotential height, zonal wind, potential vorticity, eddy heat and momentum fluxes, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes. The time periods and data sources constituting the MASH comparisons are summarized.

Miles, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project: First Algorithm Intercomparison Project

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) was established by the World Climate Research Program to produce global analyses of the area- and time-averaged precipitation for use in climate research. To achieve the required spatial coverage, the GPCP uses simple rainfall estimates derived from IR and microwave satellite observations. In this paper, we describe the GPCP and its first Algorithm Intercomparison Project (AIP/1), which compared a variety of rainfall estimates derived from Geostationary Meteorological Satellite visible and IR observations and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) microwave observations with rainfall derived from a combination of radar and raingage data over the Japanese islands and the adjacent ocean regions during the June and mid-July through mid-August periods of 1989. To investigate potential improvements in the use of satellite IR data for the estimation of large-scale rainfall for the GPCP, the relationship between rainfall and the fractional coverage of cold clouds in the AIP/1 dataset is examined. Linear regressions between fractional coverage and rainfall are analyzed for a number of latitude-longitude areas and for a range of averaging times. The results show distinct differences in the character of the relationship for different portions of the area. These results suggest that the simple IR-based estimation technique currently used in the GPCP can be used to estimate rainfall for global tropical and subtropical areas, provided that a method for adjusting the proportional coefficient for varying areas and seasons can be determined.

Arkin, Phillip A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Precision Lower Stratospheric Temperature Monitoring with the MSU: Technique, Validation, and Results, 1979-1991

Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 data from the TIROS-N (Television and Infrared Operational Satellite)-N series of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellites are intercalibrated to provide a continuous global record of deep-layer averaged lower stratospheric temperatures during 1979-1991. A 13-year record of temperature anomalies is time averaged into pentads and months on a 2.5 deg. grid. The monthly gridpoint anomalies are validated with ten years of radiosonde data during 1979-88. The calibration stability of each satellite's measurements is evaluated during satellite overlap periods, the longest of which reveal no measurable instrumental drift at the level of 0.01 C yr (exp -1). Intercomparisons between NOAA-6 and NOAA- 7 anomalies indicate monthly gridpoint precision of 0.05 C in the tropics to around 0.10 C in the extratropics, and signal-to-noise ratios precision and stability statistics are much better than have been previously reported by other investigators for MSU channel 4. Pentad precision is about 0.10 C in the tropics to around 0.25 C at high latitudes and signal-to- noise ratios generally over 250 in the tropics and high latitudes, but 100-200 in the middle latitudes. Radiosonde comparisons to the monthly gridpoint anomalies have correlations ranging from 0.90 in the tropics (where the interannual variability is smallest) to as high as 0.99 at high-latitude stations. The corresponding standard error of estimate is generally around 0.3 C. A significant difference in decadal trends is found between the satellite and radiosonde systems, with a step change of 0.21 C (sondes cooler) compared to the satellite measurements. Investigations of the possible sources of the discrepancy lead us to suspect that the gradual transition from on-site calibration of sondes with thermometers to factory calibration of sondes around 1982 might have caused a change in the calibration, although this conclusion must be viewed as tentative. The largest globally averaged temperature variations during 1979-91 occur after the El Chichon (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions. These warm events are superimposed upon a net downward trend in temperatures during the period. This cooling trend has more of a step function than linear character, with the step occurring during the El Chichon warm event. It is strongest in polar regions and the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes. These characteristics are qualitatively consistent with radiative adjustments expected to occur with observed ozone depletions.

Spencer, Roy W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

"Hot Spots" of Land Atmosphere Coupling

Previous estimates of land-atmosphere interaction (the impact of soil moisture on precipitation) have been limited by a severe paucity of relevant observational data and by the model-dependence of the various computational estimates. To counter this limitation, a dozen climate modeling groups have recently performed the same highly-controlled numerical experiment as part of a coordinated intercomparison project. This allows, for the first time ever, a superior multi-model approach to the estimation of the regions on the globe where precipitation is affected by soil moisture anomalies during Northern Hemisphere summer. Such estimation has many potential benefits; it can contribute, for example, to seasonal rainfall prediction efforts.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Analysis of Raman Lidar and Radiosonde Measurements from the AWEX-G Field Campaign and Its Relation to Aqua Validation

Early work within the Aqua validation activity revealed there to be large differences in water vapor measurement accuracy among the various technologies in use for providing validation data. The validation measurements were made at globally distributed sites making it difficult to isolate the sources of the apparent measurement differences among the various sensors, which included both Raman lidar and radiosonde. Because of this, the AIRS Water Vapor Experiment-Ground (AWEX-G) was held in October-November 2003 with the goal of bringing validation technologies to a common site for intercomparison and resolving the measurement discrepancies. Using the University of Colorado Cryogenic Frostpoint Hygrometer (CFH) as the water vapor reference, the AWEX-G field campaign permitted correction techniques to be validated for Raman lidar, Vaisala RS80-H and RS90/92 that significantly improve the absolute accuracy of water vapor measurements from these systems particularly in the upper troposphere. Mean comparisons of radiosondes and lidar are performed demonstrating agreement between corrected sensors and the CFH to generally within 5% thereby providing data of sufficient accuracy for Aqua validation purposes. Examples of the use of the correction techniques in radiance and retrieval comparisons are provided and discussed.

Whiteman, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Momentum and Energy Assessments with NASA and Other Model and Data Assimilation Systems

Support from the NASA Global Modeling and Analysis Program has been used for the following research objectives: 1) the study of aspects of dynamics of torques and angular momentum based on the Goddard GEOS and other analyses; 2) the study of how models participating in the second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-2) have success in simulating certain large-scale quantities; 3) the study of the energetics and momentum cycle from certain runs from the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres and other models as well; 4) the assessment of changes in diabatic heating and related energetics in the community climate model (CCM3); 5) the analysis of modes of climate of the atmosphere, especially the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations. Further information on these endeavors will be provided in published works and the Final Report of the project.

Salstein, David↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more accurate projections of future climate.

climate change↗