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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Developing an Automated Uncertainty Quantification Tool to Improve Watershed-Scale Predictions of Water and Nutrient Cycling

Managing the flow of water, nutrients, and contaminants in watersheds is vital to addressing pressing issues related to water scarcity, access to clean drinking water, energy production, resilience to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, and ecological restoration. Decisions about the management of watersheds critically depend on the accuracy with which the flow of water and chemicals through the watershed can be predicted by computer models. Prediction uncertainty can be reduced by matching the model to data, which are collected in the field at great expense. The contribution of watershed characterization data to reducing uncertainty of relevant model predictions can be evaluated in a so-called data-worth analysis, which provides transparent, quantitative metrics about a data set’s value for the support of relevant watershed management objectives. To achieve this goal, we developed a software package that implements the data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. The purpose of the proposed data-worth analysis is to help decision-makers allocate resources for watershed characterization such that the uncertainty in model predictions can be significantly reduced, which leads to better, more effective management decisions. At the same time, watershed characterization costs can be reduced. The specific technical objectives of this SBIR/STTR Phase II project were to develop a framework and associated software toolsets that implement the uncertainty quantification and data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. This goal was achieved by (A) developing a user-friendly, robust software package that is accessible to a wide audience, including watershed managers, policy-makers, and public stakeholders; (B) by demonstrating application of the prototype on several use cases that are representative of complex watershed management challenges spanning a range of scales and that consider different open-source, DOE-based codes and other modeling platforms; and (C) by gathering information about the needs and requirements from potential users to help guide future developments, ensuring that the final product will be commercially viable. The developed software consists of a graphical user interface that guides the user through a sequence of analysis steps, supported by toolsets that leverage state-of-the-art computational simulation-optimization capabilities. A prototype of the software runs on multiple platforms (PC, Mac, multi-processor Linux environment), is linked to diverse watershed simulators (e.g., ECOSYS, TOUGH2, TOUGHREACT, Amanzi-ATS), performs multiple analysis tasks (predictive simulations, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, automatic parameter estimation, and data-worth analysis, multicomponent geothermometry), and is readily extensible to include external simulators and analysis tools. The software is being commercialized and will be continually updated to address user needs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extracting Vehicle Trajectories from Partially Overlapping Roadside Radar

This work presents a methodology for extracting vehicle trajectories from six partially-overlapping roadside radars through a signalized corridor. The methodology incorporates radar calibration, transformation to the Frenet space, Kalman filtering, short-term prediction, lane-classification, trajectory association, and a covariance intersection-based approach to track fusion. The resulting dataset contains 79,000 fused radar trajectories over a 26-h period, capturing diverse driving scenarios including signalized intersections, merging behavior, and a wide range of speeds. Compared to popular trajectory datasets such as NGSIM and highD, this dataset offers extended temporal coverage, a large number of vehicles, and varied driving conditions. The filtered leader–follower pairs from the dataset provide a substantial number of trajectories suitable for car-following model calibration. The framework and dataset presented in this work has the potential to be leveraged broadly in the study of advanced traffic management systems, autonomous vehicle decision-making, and traffic research.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decentralized Microgrid Protection Through Relative Fault Direction Classification: Preprint

Protection in inverter-based resources (IBRs) dominated microgrids generally face significant challenges due to the low fault current and inconsistent fault behaviors from IBRs. Recently, machine learning-based approaches have attracted considerable attention to address these challenges. This paper introduces a novel decentralized protection strategy for microgrids. The proposed method decomposes the protection challenge into several distributed learning tasks, enabling individual relays to autonomously determine the direction of faults using a binary classification framework based on support vector machine (SVM) algorithms. Following the distributed fault direction estimation, classifier outcomes are shared among neighboring relays, facilitating a local decision-making process to ascertain the presence of faults within the neighborhood. Finally, a tripping signal is generated based on the classifier results of each relay to operate the circuit breaker. To test and validate this approach, a 100% renewable microgrid model is simulated in MATLAB/Simulink. In the numerical analysis, the application of SVM classifiers in our approach yields impressive results: an average relay classification accuracy of 98%, and a 96% accuracy in circuit breaker control. These findings highlight the potential of machine-learning-based approaches in enhancing the efficiency and reliability of microgrid protection systems.

decentralized algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2024

GIS Supported Optimal Site Selection for Coastal Structure Integrated Wave Energy Converters: Preprint

There is an urgent need for adaptative engineering towards more resilient coastal communities, and Coastal Structure Integrated Wave Energy Converters (CSI-WECs) are a promising solution. CSI-WECs are wave energy converters (WECs) that are built into coastal protection structures, such as breakwaters. These devices provide the dual benefits of coastal protection and local energy production, and unlike other WECs, maximizing energy production is not always the main objective. CSI-WECs are located near the shore, where the wave resource is lower, thus site selection for these devices differs from the typical offshore WECs. Other attributes of a site that may be more important than wave power include existing coastal structures, port proximity, electric transmission line proximity, and location of disadvantaged communities. Geospatial information systems (GIS) interfaces can be used to easily visualize geospatial data that represents these difference kinds of criteria important for the determination of optimal marine energy sites. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a geospatial analysis method that allows for the evaluation of multiple, usually overlapping, criteria. This project applies GIS-based MCDA methods to two distinct case studies in Puerto Rico and California for CSI-WEC site selection. The two study sites contrast in terms of wave resource, coastal hazards, and local energy needs. This research demonstrates the utility of applying an MCDA framework within GIS to facilitate efficient site selection for devices with unique characteristics in different use cases.

coastal protection↗
DOE OSTI2023

Immersive Digital Twins and Decision Making

This work focuses on developing and implementing immersive digital twins to support decision-making processes in construction automation and energy simulation analysis. The use of digital twins enables users to explore and interact with virtual replicas of physical systems, providing a unique and valuable perspective for problem-solving. In the context of construction automation, we present two case studies that integrate immersive visualization and worker-machine interaction. In the context of energy simulation analysis using digital twins, we describe our digital twin framework that combines interactive visualization with machine learning techniques to approximate computationally expensive simulations, allowing for faster and more efficient analysis of complex energy systems. Through these research endeavors, we demonstrate the potential of immersive digital twins in decision-making across various domains.

digital twins↗
DOE OSTI2026

Satellite Embedding-Based Population Imputation for Areas with Missing Building Footprint Data: A Computer Vision-Based Approach

High-resolution population modeling is important for supporting effective decision-making across diverse sectors. LandScan Mosaic generates population estimates at the level of individual buildings and aggregates them to 3 arc-second grids, and this approach performs well in regions where building footprint data are comprehensive and reliable. However, large portions of the globe still suffer from incomplete, sparse, or entirely missing building stock datasets, creating a structural limitation for strictly building-based population models. To address this research gap, this study proposes a computer vision-based framework that employs Google Earth Engine satellite embeddings and UNet, which allows us to directly impute grid-level population estimates in building-data-deficient areas. Applied to Taiwan as a case study, the framework achieved strong predictive performance with R$^{2}$ of 0.89, RMSE of 18.70, and MAE of 8.41, outperforming traditional machine learning approaches. Notably, the proposed framework effectively addressed building false-positive errors inherent in Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, correctly identifying uninhabited areas that were erroneously classified as populated. The framework also offers significant advantages for global population mapping, particularly in terms of scalability and temporal consistency, thereby extending the coverage and accuracy of high-resolution population products in data-scarce regions worldwide. Urban planners, decision makers, and related stakeholders can obtain granular population distributions to support more accurate and targeted infrastructure investment, service delivery, resource allocation, and risk assessment decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty

As two of the highest trending green technologies, photovoltaic panels and green roofs are proven to be effective practices for energy generation and energy saving. The achievable impact from the widespread installation of such technologies is, however, not clearly established. This is mainly because the degree of this impact highly depends on the inherently uncertain environmental and climate factors, as well as the unknown adoption rates of these technologies, which in turn depend on different characteristics of decision makers and interactions among them. To that end, this study aims to investigate the diffusion rate of these green technologies under uncertainties caused by climate change, characteristics of adopters, and their interactions. An integrated framework is developed to capture the interplay between financial and attitudinal aspects, as well as the uncertainties due to both the stochastic nature of system parameters and the interactions among agents involving human beings. Specifically, this framework consists of a integer programming model to optimize the green roof and/or photovoltaic panel installation settings for a given building under climate change uncertainty, and an agent-based model to factor in the role of human behavior and interactions. A case study for the city of Knoxville, TN, is presented to evaluate the effects of different policies on the diffusion rate of the green technologies of interest. The results show that the affordability of green technologies and public awareness are the key drivers of the adoption of these technologies, which highlight the important role of the decision makers in impacting the diffusion rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploring microscopic driving volatility in naturalistic driving environment prior to involvement in safety critical events—Concept of event-based driving volatility

The sequence of instantaneous driving decisions and its variations, known as driving volatility, prior to involvement in safety critical events can be a leading indicator of safety. Here, this study focuses on the component of “driving volatility matrix” related to specific normal and safety-critical events, named “event-based volatility.” The research issue is characterizing volatility in instantaneous driving decisions in the longitudinal and lateral directions, and how it varies across drivers involved in normal driving, crash, and/or near-crash events. To explore the issue, a rigorous quasi-experimental study design is adopted to help compare driving behaviors in normal vs unsafe outcomes. Using a unique real-world naturalistic driving database from the 2nd Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP), a test set of 9593 driving events featuring 2.2 million temporal samples of real-world driving are analyzed. This study features a plethora of kinematic sensors, video, and radar spatiotemporal data about vehicle movement and therefore offers the opportunity to initiate such exploration. By using information related to longitudinal and lateral accelerations and vehicular jerk, 24 different aggregate and segmented measures of driving volatility are proposed that captures variations in extreme instantaneous driving decisions. In doing so, careful attention is given to the issue of intentional vs. unintentional volatility. The volatility indices, as leading indicators of near-crash and crash events, are then linked with safety critical events, crash propensity, and other event specific explanatory variables. Owing to the presence of unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variable bias, fixed- and random-parameter discrete choice models are developed that relate crash propensity to unintentional driving volatility and other factors. Statistically significant evidence is found that driver volatilities in near-crash and crash events are significantly greater than volatility in normal driving events. After controlling for traffic, roadway, and unobserved factors, the results suggest that greater intentional volatility increases the likelihood of both crash and near-crash events. A one-unit increase in intentional volatility is associated with positive vehicular jerk in longitudinal direction increases the chance of crash and near-crash outcome by 15.79 and 12.52 percentage points, respectively. Importantly, intentional volatility in positive vehicular jerk in lateral direction has more negative consequences than intentional volatility in positive vehicular jerk in longitudinal direction. Compared to acceleration/deceleration, vehicular jerk can better characterize the volatility in microscopic instantaneous driving decisions prior to involvement in safety critical events. Finally, the magnitudes of correlations exhibit significant heterogeneity, and that accounting for the heterogeneous effects in the modeling framework can provide more reliable and accurate results. The study demonstrates the value of quasi-experimental study design and big data analytics for understanding extreme driving behaviors in safe vs. unsafe driving outcomes.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Maximising the investment returns of a grid‐connected battery considering degradation cost

Energy storage systems (ESSs) are being deployed widely due to numerous benefits including operational flexibility, high ramping capability, and decreasing costs. This study investigates the economic benefits provided by battery ESSs when they are deployed for market‐related applications, considering the battery degradation cost. A comprehensive investment planning framework is presented, which estimates the maximum revenue that the ESS can generate over its lifetime and provides the necessary tools to investors for aiding the decision making process regarding an ESS project. The applications chosen for this study are energy arbitrage and frequency regulation. Lithium‐ion batteries are considered due to their wide popularity arising from high efficiency, high energy density, and declining costs. A new degradation cost model based on energy throughput and cycle count is developed for Lithium‐ion batteries participating in electricity markets. The lifetime revenue of ESS is calculated considering battery degradation and a cost–benefit analysis is performed to provide investors with an estimate of the net present value, return on investment and payback period. The effect of considering the degradation cost on the estimated revenue is also studied. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the IEEE Reliability Test System and historical data from PJM Interconnection.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation for Robust UQ Within Agent-Based Simulation on HPC Systems

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run multiple realizations of the model then compute aggregate statistics. This approach is limited due to the compute time required for a solution. When faced with an emerging biothreat, public health decisions need to be made quickly and solutions for integrating near real-time data with analytic tools are needed. We propose an integrated Bayesian UQ framework for agent-based models based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Given streaming or static data about the evolution of an emerging pathogen this Bayesian framework provides a distribution over the parameters governing the spread of a disease through a population. These estimates of the spread of a disease may be provided to public health agencies seeking to abate the spread. By coupling agent-based simulations with Bayesian modeling in a data assimilation, our proposed framework provides a powerful tool for modeling dynamical systems in silico. We propose a method which reduces model error and provides a range of realistic possible outcomes. Moreover, our method addresses two primary limitations of ABMs: the lack of UQ and an inability to assimilate data. Our proposed framework combines the flexibility of an agent-based model with UQ provided by the Bayesian paradigm in a workflow which scales well to HPC systems. We provide algorithmic details and results on a simulated outbreak with both static and streaming data.

Spannaus, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225213657)↗
DOE OSTI2023

PoliMOR

PoliMOR is a scalable, automated, and customizable policy engine framework for multi-tiered parallel file systems. It is composed of single-purpose agents that handle tasks such as gathering file metadata, making policy decisions, and then executing actions based on those policies. These agents are designed to communicate using distributed message queues, allowing the number of individual agents to be scaled up as needed. PoliMOR automates the data management tasks by precluding the need for admin intervention. The agents in PoliMOR can be customized to integrate any utilities/tools that perform tasks like metadata scanning and data placement management.

Brumgard, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards verifiable cancer digital twins: tissue level modeling protocol for precision medicine

Cancer exhibits substantial heterogeneity, manifesting as distinct morphological and molecular variations across tumors, which frequently undermines the efficacy of conventional oncological treatments. Developments in multiomics and sequencing technologies have paved the way for unraveling this heterogeneity. Nevertheless, the complexity of the data gathered from these methods cannot be fully interpreted through multimodal data analysis alone. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in delineating the underlying mechanisms to explain sources of heterogeneity using patient-specific data. Intra-tumoral diversity necessitates the development of precision oncology therapies utilizing multiphysics, multiscale mathematical models for cancer. This review discusses recent advancements in computational methodologies for precision oncology, highlighting the potential of cancer digital twins to enhance patient-specific decision-making in clinical settings. We review computational efforts in building patient-informed cellular and tissue-level models for cancer and propose a computational framework that utilizes agent-based modeling as an effective conduit to integrate cancer systems models that encode signaling at the cellular scale with digital twin models that predict tissue-level response in a tumor microenvironment customized to patient information. Furthermore, we discuss machine learning approaches to building surrogates for these complex mathematical models. These surrogates can potentially be used to conduct sensitivity analysis, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification, which is especially important for tumor studies due to their dynamic nature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

SimLBR: Learning to Detect Fake Images by Learning to Detect Real Images

The rapid advancement of generative models has made the detection of AI-generated images a critical challenge for both research and society. Recent works have shown that most state-of-the-art fake image detection methods overfit to their training data and catastrophically fail when evaluated on curated hard test sets with strong distribution shifts. In this work, we argue that it is more principled to learn a tight decision boundary around the real image distribution and treat the fake category as a sink class. To this end, we propose SimLBR, a simple and efficient framework for fake image detection with Latent Blending Regularization (LBR). Our method significantly improves cross-generator generalization, achieving up to +24.85% accuracy and +69.62% recall on the challenging Chameleon benchmark. SimLBR is also highly efficient, training orders of magnitude faster than existing approaches. Furthermore, we emphasize the need for reliability-oriented evaluation in fake image detection, introducing risk-adjusted metrics and worst-case estimates to better assess model robustness. All the code and models are availabe at: https://github.com/mvrl/SimLBR

Dhakal, Aayush [Washington University, St. Louis]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods and system for siting advanced nuclear reactors and evaluating energy policy concerns

There is a growing sociopolitical desire to develop cleaner energy sources in the United States and maintain energy security. Regardless of politics, many coal-fired electric plants have already been shut down and many utilities are vowing to retire their current coal-fired assets within the next two decades. Replacement power assets require consideration of appropriate siting. A geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is useful to assist utility and energy companies, as well as policymakers, to evaluate potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States. A GIS-based framework is simply a database of location information that allows for mapping, querying, modeling, and analyzing data based on location. The spatial output can be structured to be visual, allowing for easier analysis of location data. The need to site additional power assets, including renewable resources and clean power sources, such as nuclear, led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool discussed in this paper. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth visual analysis for siting options. Energy companies and other stakeholders can use OR-SAGE to procure feedback quickly and effectively on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. Policymakers can use OR-SAGE to analyze the impacts of future energy technology decisions, while balancing competing resource use. Overall, this paper discusses the recent use of OR-SAGE for these purposes and plans for future development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Caldera_Grid

Caldera Grid is part of Caldera software platform, a suite of collective, open-source tools that was developed to improve the state of the art in modeling the impacts of Electric Vehicle (EV) charging on the grid. Caldera Grid is a co-simulation framework implemented using Hierarchical Engine for Large scale Infrastructure Co-Simulation (HELICS). The framework facilitates the co-simulation of EV charging and Smart Charge Management (SCM) strategies in Caldera Infrastructure Charge Model (ICM) with distribution level grid models in OpenDSS. Vehicle energy needs and charge session requirements generated using Caldera Charge Decision Module (CDM) are fed in as input to Caldera Grid. The EV charging models in Caldera ICM simulates both the uncontrolled charging loads as well as loads modified by the SCM strategies to develop distributed load profiles for each grid node hosting an Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) – also known as chargers. These loads were simulated in OpenDSS alongside existing distribution feeder loads. Each of these models are co-simulated in a HELICS federate. The HELICS co-simulation framework facilitates communication and synchronization between the federates. By co-simulating EV loads and distribution feeder loads, Caldera Grid can assess the potential grid impacts of EV charging on distribution feeders under various grid conditions. A control strategy federate is implemented with an interface where control strategies based on feedback from EV charging status and grid conditions can be developed and implemented. The platform can also support multiple control strategies in a single co-simulation.

Sundarrajan, ManojKumar Cebol↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design and optimization of a modular hydrogen-based integrated energy system to maximize revenue via nuclear-renewable sources

Here, this paper demonstrates a novel modular distributed framework that uses optimal energy-dispatching strategies to enable greater flexibility and profitability in nuclear-renewable integrated energy systems (NR-IES). Hydrogen is used as a commodity in this framework since its production can improve grid stability and system operational flexibility, decarbonize heavy industry, and create an additional revenue stream for electricity generators, particularly nuclear power plants with high operational expenses. The proposed solution addresses the challenges associated with merging multiple software and services from various domains by using functional mock-up units (FMU) to co-simulate diverse subsystems designed in various platforms. The tightly coupled integrated energy system (IES) is optimized to maximize revenue by utilizing the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) technique to make smart dispatching decisions based on variable electricity prices and the availability of renewable energy. Proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm is used in training and testing the DRL agent. Over a period of 120 days, the proposed hydrogen-based IES framework showed about 10% revenue boost compared to a non-hydrogen generating baseline IES while also providing an easily-adoptable framework which can help to improve the flexibility of future generation nuclear power plants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A time-varying vulnerability index for COVID-19 in New Mexico, USA using generalized propensity scores

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted systemic inequities in the United States and resulted in a larger burden of negative social outcomes for marginalized communities. New Mexico, a state in the southwestern US, has a unique population with a large racial minority population and a high rate of poverty that may make communities more vulnerable to negative social outcomes from COVID-19. To identify which communities may be at the highest relative risk, we created a county-level vulnerability index. After the first COVID-19 case was reported in New Mexico on March 11, 2020, we fit a generalized propensity score model that incorporates sociodemographic factors to predict county-level viral exposure and thus, the generic risk to negative social outcomes such as unemployment or mental health impacts. We used four static sociodemographic covariates important for the state of New Mexico—population, poverty, household size, and minority population—and weekly cumulative case counts to iteratively run our model each week and normalize the exposure score to create a time-varying vulnerability index. We found the relative vulnerability between counties varied in the first eight weeks from the initial COVID-19 case before stabilizing. This framework for creating a location-specific vulnerability index in response to an ongoing disaster may be used as a quick, deployable metric to inform health policy decisions such as allocating state resources to the county level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the behavioral realism of energy system models in light of the consumer adoption literature

Effective policymaking to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions demands an understanding of the complex drivers of, and barriers to, consumer adoption behavior via behaviorally realistic energy system models. Existing models tend to oversimplify by focusing on homogenized financial factors while neglecting consumer heterogeneity and non-monetary influences. This study develops and applies a comprehensive framework for evaluating the behavioral realism of consumer adoption models, informed by the adoption literature. It introduces a typology for factors influencing low-carbon technology adoption decisions: monetary and non-monetary factors relating to household characteristics, psychology, technological attributes, and contextual conditions. Next, reviews of the consumer adoption and decision-making literature identify the most influential adoption factor categories for distributed solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and air-source heat pumps. Finally, the extent to which a selection of energy system models accounts for these adoption factors is assessed. Existing models predominantly emphasize the economic aspects of technology, which are generally identified as the most important factors. Where the models fall short — in considering moderately important factor categories — sector-specific and agent-based models can offer more behaviorally realistic insights. This study sheds light on which types of factors are most important for consumer adoption decisions and investigates how well current models rise to the challenge of behavioral realism. The end-to-end analysis presented enables internally consistent comparisons across models and energy technologies. This research advances timely conversations on consumer adoption. It could inform more behaviorally realistic energy system modeling, and thereby more effective decarbonization policymaking.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗