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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A Hybrid Index for Characterizing Drought Based on a Nonparametric Kernel Estimator

This study develops a nonparametric multivariate drought index, namely, the nonparametric multivariate standardized drought index (NMSDI), by considering the variations of both precipitation and streamflow. Building upon previous efforts in constructing nonparametric multivariate drought index, the nonparametric kernel estimator is used to derive the joint distribution of precipitation and streamflow, thus providing additional insights into drought-index development. The proposed NMSDI is applied in the Wei River basin (WRB), on the basis of which the drought-evolution characteristics are investigated. Three main results were found: 1) In general, NMSDI captures drought onset in a way that is similar to that of the standardized precipitation index and captures drought termination and persistence in a way that is similar to that of the standardized streamflow index. We report the drought events identified by NMSDI match well with historical drought records in the WRB. Performance is also consistent with that of an existing multivariate standardized drought index at various time scales, confirming the validity of the newly constructed NMSDI in drought detections. 2) An increasing risk of drought has been detected for past decades and will persist to a certain extent in the future in most areas of the WRB. 3) The identified changepoints of annual NMSDI are mainly concentrated in the early 1970s and mid-1990s, coincident with extensive water use and soil conservation practices. In summary, this study highlights a nonparametric multivariable drought index that can efficiently and comprehensively be used for drought detections and predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Placement and Sizing of Inverter-Based Renewable Systems in Multi-Phase Distribution Networks

This study develops a tractable formulation for optimal placement and sizing of inverter-based renewable systems in multi-phase distribution networks. The goal of the formulation is to minimize the cost of inverter installation, average power import, and average distributed generation curtailment. Threephase and single-phase inverter models are presented that preserve the underlying mappings between renewable uncertainty to power injection. The uncertainty of distributed generators (DGs) and loads are characterized by a finite set of scenarios. Linear multi-phase power flow approximations are used in conjunction with scenario reduction techniques to arrive at a tractable twostage stochastic formulation for optimal DG placement and sizing. First-stage decisions are locations for DG deployment and capacity sizes, and second-stage decisions include DG real power curtailment, reactive power support, as well as feeder voltage profile. The resulting formulation is a mixed-integer second-order cone program and can be solved efficiently either by existing optimization solvers or by relaxing the binary variables to the [0,1] interval. Simulation studies on standard multi-phase IEEE test feeders promise that optimal stochastic planning of DGs reduces costs during validation, compared to a scheme where uncertainty is only represented by its average value.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

GeoVision Analysis Supporting Task Force Report: Electric Sector Potential to Penetration

This report describes research and analysis performed in support of the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office for its Geothermal Vision Study. A summary of the study is captured in DOE’s report, GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet and included ground-breaking, detailed research on geothermal technologies. The study projects and quantifies the future electric and nonelectric deployment potentials of these geothermal technologies within a range of scenarios in addition to their impacts on U.S. jobs, the economy, and environment. Coordinated by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office, the Geothermal Vision Study development relied on collecting, modeling, and analyzing robust data sets through seven national laboratory partners that were organized into eight technical task force groups. These task forces and their respective principal leading national laboratory are listed in Table F-1. The table also provides a guide to the final research documents produced by each GeoVision task force. In most cases, these were prepared as laboratory reports, and they are referenced accordingly. Consult these external reports for detailed discussions of the topics contained within, which form the basis of the GeoVision analysis.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Game theoretic modeling and optimization of competition and collaboration in dual channel electronic waste supply chains

The rapid growth of electronic waste (e-waste) presents critical challenges for sustainable resource recovery and environmental protection. This study develops a dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) model formulated as a hierarchical Stackelberg game, that integrates dynamic pricing and cost-sharing mechanisms to optimize both economic and environmental outcomes. The model explicitly captures strategic interactions between manufacturer-led and third-party recycling channels, accounting for consumer behavior, regulatory incentives, and market competition. Numerical simulations conducted (implemented over a four-iteration horizon using a commercial optimization solver) show that, relative to the baseline equilibrium, manufacturer profit increases from 11.6 thousand USD to 37.9 thousand USD (+226.8%), total recycled volume rises from 7,848 to 7,942 units (+1.2%), and collector profit nearly doubles under cost-sharing, enabling more equitable profit distribution. Furthermore, scenario-based simulations across Sub-Saharan Africa, high-income economies, and emerging Asian industrial countries reveal that infrastructure quality, policy intensity, and labor costs critically shape recycling efficiency and profit allocation. These findings demonstrate that subsidies alone are insufficient to ensure system efficiency. Instead, coordinated strategies that integrate internal incentive alignment with context-sensitive policy support are required. Overall, this study offers a robust framework for designing resilient, efficient, and regionally adaptable e-waste management systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Interplay Between Climate and Urban Expansion on Building Energy Demand in Morocco

Understanding building energy demand is critical for addressing climate uncertainty challenges and ensuring sustainable urban growth. This study develops a building energy demand (BED) model to explore how climate variation and urban expansion affect residential and commercial space heating and cooling demands in Morocco for three scenarios, namely, 2005, 2018, and 2018 + 1.5 °C. The results show that coastal cities have lower heating and cooling needs due to the oceanic influence, while interior cities require significantly higher heating demand per-unit-floorspace. Between 2005 and 2018, urban growth increased total heating and cooling demand by 218.8 GWh, particularly in northern and coastal regions, despite per-unit-floorspace reductions in milder climates and improved building efficiency in 2018. Residential heating remains the dominant energy use, though commercial demand is significant in urban centers. Under the 2018 + 1.5 °C hypothetical scenario, heating demand across Morocco declines by 335.8 GWh compared to 2018, with urban areas amplifying this trend. Meanwhile, cooling demand increases slightly by 44.4 GWh, with major cities experiencing relative increases of up to 50%. These findings highlight a trade-off where reduced winter heating needs are partly offset by increased summer cooling demands in densely urbanized areas. In conclusion, the study identifies key urban hotspots for targeted interventions, emphasizing the need for energy-efficient building designs, climate-adaptive urban planning, and resilient energy management strategies to sustainably address shifting seasonal energy patterns.

Morocco↗
DOE OSTI2026

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-scale sensing of field-level crop residue cover: Integrating field photos, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite data

Conservation tillage practices can bring benefits to agricultural sustainability. Accurate spatial and temporal resolved information of field-scale crop residue cover, which reflects tillage intensity, is highly valuable for evaluating the outcomes of government conservation programs and voluntary ecosystem service markets, as well as facilitating agroecosystem modeling to quantify cropland biogeochemical processes. Remote sensing has the potential to cost-effectively detect crop residue cover, however, existing regional-scale studies were limited by insufficient ground truth data, scale mismatch between coarse satellite pixels and ground data, and the lack of key spectral data for detecting crop residues. Therefore, this study developed an innovative cross-sensing framework to integrate proximal sensing, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite Earth Observation through deep learning to quantify field-level crop residue cover fractions at the regional scale. Specifically, we have collected intensive ground orthographic photos and conducted airborne hyperspectral surveys at corn and soybean fields of Champaign and nearby counties in Illinois, the heartland of the U.S. Corn Belt. Through semi-automatic labeling aided by ResNet-50 and superpixel image segmentation, we obtained 6719 records of ground residue fractions. With these ground data, we developed the 1-dimensional convolution neural network (CNN) model using airborne hyperspectral reflectance, which has 0.5m spatial resolution and 3–5 nm spectral resolution from 400 to 2400 nm, to predict residue fractions. By applying the CNN model to airborne pixels, we augmented “ground truth” data of crop residues and further combined them with Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) satellite data to quantify regional residue fractions at 30 m resolution. Results show that airborne hyperspectral imagery with CNN can accurately detect residue fractions (R 2 = 0.82, relative RMSE = 11.73%) to effectively generate quasi “ground truth” data to support satellite upscaling to all fields. With independent ground data for testing, we found that the ground-airborne-satellite integrative framework achieved better predictions in estimating crop residue cover (R 2 = 0.67, relative RMSE = 17.53%) than the conventional ground-satellite upscaling (R 2 = 0.22, relative RMSE = 32.09%). Here we also found that the shortwave infrared wavelengths, particularly 2100–2300 nm, are vital for predicting crop residue cover. Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data have a comparable capability to track residue fractions due to similar shortwave infrared wavelengths. This study highlights the high accuracy of hyperspectral imaging to detect agroecosystem tillage management practices and the advantages of cross-scale sensing to cost-effectively integrate multi-source data to quantify field-level agroecosystem variables across scales.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A validated thermal and biological model for predicting algal productivity in large scale outdoor cultivation systems

Proper assessment of the sustainability of algal products requires an understanding of algal growth rate with regional and temporal resolution. This study developed a bulk growth model that utilizes geospatial data, reactor geometry inputs, and a maximum of six strain-specific parameters to predict algal productivity with temporal and regional resolution. The model requires local weather data to calculate the time-resolved culture temperature which is combined with a biological model based on maximum theoretical carbon fixation to predict the time-resolved algal concentration. Validation of the model against experimental data illustrates an average ac- curacy of 0.27% ± 5.32% when comparing algal concentration at harvest over 45 days of cultivation data for Galdieria sulphuraria 5587.1, and Galdieria sulphuraria Soos grown in photobioreactors (PBRs) in Mesa, AZ (33.4152° N, 111.8315° W). For open raceway ponds (ORPs), an accuracy of 0.9% ± 2.35% was achieved when comparing algal concentration at harvest over 50 days of cultivation data for Chlorella vulgaris, Desmodesmus intermedius, Nannochloropsis oceanica grown in Atlanta, GA (33.7490° N, 84.3880° W) and Mesa, AZ (33.4152° N, 111.8315° W). The validation trials spanned three seasons (winter, spring, and summer) to ensure model ac- curacy throughout the year, and concentration between harvests was modeled with hourly resolution. The validated model is used to assess the productivity at several case-study locations in the United States with Chlorella vulgaris, grown in open raceway ponds and Galdieria sulphuraria grown in vertical flat panel photo- bioreactors. In conclusion, the model has been published as an open-source tool, in an effort to increase the fidelity of future studies that rely on outdoor algae cultivation for feedstock production and allow for time resolved results for future techno-economic and life cycle assessments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Kinetic Simulation and Energetic Neutral Atom Imaging of the Magnetosphere

Advanced simulation tools and measurement techniques have been developed to study the dynamic magnetosphere and its response to drivers in the solar wind. The Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) is a kinetic code that solves the 3D distribution in space, energy and pitch-angle information of energetic ions and electrons. Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) imagers have been carried in past and current satellite missions. Global morphology of energetic ions were revealed by the observed ENA images. We have combined simulation and ENA analysis techniques to study the development of ring current ions during magnetic storms and substorms. We identify the timing and location of particle injection and loss. We examine the evolution of ion energy and pitch-angle distribution during different phases of a storm. In this talk we will discuss the findings from our ring current studies and how our simulation and ENA analysis tools can be applied to the upcoming TRIO-CINAMA mission.

Fok, Mei-Ching H.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Novel Atmospheric Correction Algorithm to Exploit the Diurnal Variability in Hypertemporal Geostationary Observations

This study developed a new atmospheric correction algorithm, GeoNEX-AC, that is independent from the traditional use of spectral band ratios but dedicated to exploiting information from the diurnal variability in the hypertemporal geostationary observations. The algorithm starts by evaluating smooth segments of the diurnal time series of the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance to identify clear-sky and snow-free observations. It then attempts to retrieve the Ross-Thick–Li-Sparse (RTLS) surface bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) parameters and the daily mean atmospheric optical depth (AOD) with an atmospheric radiative transfer model (RTM) to optimally simulate the observed diurnal variability in the clear-sky TOA reflectance. Once the initial RTLS parameters are retrieved after the algorithm’s burn-in period, they serve as the prior information to estimate the AOD levels for the following days and update the surface BRDF information with the new clear-sky observations. This process is iterated through the full time span of the observations, skipping only totally cloudy days or when surface snow is detected. We tested the algorithm over various Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites and the retrieved results well agree with the ground-based measurements. This study demonstrates that the high-frequency diurnal geostationary observations contain unique information that can help to address the atmospheric correction problem from new directions.

atmospheric correction↗
DOE OSTI2016

Use of C-Arm Cone Beam CT During Hepatic Radioembolization: Protocol Optimization for Extrahepatic Shunting and Parenchymal Enhancement

PurposeTo optimize a C-arm computed tomography (CT) protocol for radioembolization (RE), specifically for extrahepatic shunting and parenchymal enhancement.Materials and MethodsA prospective development study was performed per IDEAL recommendations. A literature-based protocol was applied in patients with unresectable and chemorefractory liver malignancies undergoing an angiography before radioembolization. Contrast and scan settings were adjusted stepwise and repeatedly reviewed in a consensus meeting. Afterwards, two independent raters analyzed all scans. A third rater evaluated the SPECT/CT scans as a reference standard for extrahepatic shunting and lack of target segment perfusion.ResultsFifty scans were obtained in 29 procedures. The first protocol, using a 6 s delay and 10 s scan, showed insufficient parenchymal enhancement. In the second protocol, the delay was determined by timing parenchymal enhancement on DSA power injection (median 8 s, range 4–10 s): enhancement improved, but breathing artifacts increased (from 0 to 27 %). Since the third protocol with a 5 s scan decremented subjective image quality, the second protocol was deemed optimal. Median CNR (range) was 1.7 (0.6–3.2), 2.2 (−1.4–4.0), and 2.1 (−0.3–3.0) for protocol 1, 2, and 3 (p = 0.80). Delineation of perfused segments was possible in 57, 73, and 44 % of scans (p = 0.13). In all C-arm CTs combined, the negative predictive value was 95 % for extrahepatic shunting and 83 % for lack of target segment perfusion.ConclusionAn optimized C-arm CT protocol was developed that can be used to detect extrahepatic shunts and non-perfusion of target segments during RE.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracking seasonal variability in plant traits from spaceborne PRISMA and NEON AOP across forest types and ecoregions

Plant traits serve as critical indicators of how plants adapt to environmental changes and influence ecosystem functions. While airborne hyperspectral remote sensing effectively maps plant traits through detailed reflectance properties, it is limited by cost and scale, making large-scale and temporal studies challenging. The recently launched spaceborne hyperspectral imager, PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), offers frequent, large scale and high-fidelity observations on a spatial resolution of 30 m and a revisit time of around 29 days, making it suitable for large-scale seasonal trait mapping. However, their potential remains largely unexplored. This study developed a multi-stage framework by leveraging the PRISMA spaceborne hyperspectral data and National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) hyperspectral data to investigate the seasonal dynamics of four key plant traits — chlorophyll content, carotenoid content, equivalent water thickness, and nitrogen content — across eleven NEON sites representing diverse forest types and ecoregions in the contiguous U.S. Our results demonstrated that PRISMA hyperspectral data can reliably track seasonal variability in plant traits, achieving overall R 2 values ranging from 0.78 to 0.88 and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) values ranging from 5.4% to 8.4% for the four traits. Seasonal patterns revealed bell-shaped trajectories for chlorophyll and carotenoids, while equivalent water thickness decreased steadily across most sites, driven by structural changes during leaf maturation and senescence. Nitrogen content exhibited less pronounced seasonal variation but followed expected nutrient resorption patterns. Analysis of environmental drivers showed that seasonal variability is primarily controlled by solar radiation and day length in northern sites, vapor pressure in semi-arid regions, and temperature in mid-southeastern sites. Spatial variability, meanwhile, was primarily driven by soil properties, particularly during the peak growing season. However, the influence of soil variables slightly declines toward the end of the season at several sites, as climatic factors become more prominent. This study highlights the capability of PRISMA, and potentially other similar spaceborne hyperspectral data for large-scale, time-series plant trait mapping and provides valuable insights into the interactions between plant traits and environmental factors. In conclusion, these findings contribute to advancing our understanding of plant functional ecology and improving predictions of ecosystem responses to environmental changes.

Environmental drivers↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method

This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.

boundary layer height↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution

Importance Opioid-related overdose accounts for almost 80 000 deaths annually across the US. People who use drugs leaving jails are at particularly high risk for opioid-related overdose and may benefit from take-home naloxone (THN) distribution. Objective To estimate the population impact of THN distribution at jail release to reverse opioid-related overdose among people with opioid use disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants This study developed the agent-based Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to model a synthetic population of individuals with and without a history of opioid use. Epidemiological data from 2014 to 2020 for Cook County, Illinois, were used to identify parameters pertinent to the synthetic population. Twenty-seven experimental scenarios were examined to capture diverse strategies of THN distribution and use. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical mediating and moderating variables associated with population impact and a proxy metric for cost-effectiveness (ie, the direct costs of THN kits distributed per death averted). Data were analyzed between February 2022 and March 2024. Intervention Modeled interventions included 3 THN distribution channels: community facilities and practitioners; jail, at release; and social network or peers of persons released from jail. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the percentage of opioid-related overdose deaths averted with THN in the modeled population relative to a baseline scenario with no intervention. Results Take-home naloxone distribution at jail release had the highest median (IQR) percentage of averted deaths at 11.70% (6.57%-15.75%). The probability of bystander presence at an opioid overdose showed the greatest proportional contribution (27.15%) to the variance in deaths averted in persons released from jail. The estimated costs of distributed THN kits were less than $\$$15 000 per averted death in all 27 scenarios. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that THN distribution at jail release is an economical and feasible approach to substantially reducing opioid-related overdose mortality. Training and preparation of proficient and willing bystanders are central factors in reaching the full potential of this intervention.

Tatara, Eric [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Marginal Land Availability Based on Land Use Change Information in the Contiguous United States

Utilization of marginal land for growing dedicated bioenergy crops for second-generation biofuels is appealing to avoid conflicts with food production. This study develops a novel framework to quantify marginal land for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) based on a history of satellite-observed land use change (LUC) over the 2008–2015 period. Frequent LUC between crop and noncrop is assumed to be an indicator of economically marginal land; this land is also likely to have a lower opportunity cost of conversion from food crop to bioenergy crop production. We first present an approach to identify cropland in transition using the time series of Cropland Data Layer (CDL) land cover product and determine the amount of land that can be considered marginal with a high degree of confidence vs with uncertainty across the CONUS. We find that the biophysical characteristics of this land and its productivity and environmental vulnerability vary across the land and lie in between that of permanent cropland and permanent natural vegetation/bare areas; this land also has relatively low intrinsic value and agricultural profit but a high financial burden and economic risk. We find that the total area of marginal land with confidence vs with uncertainty is 10.2 and 58.4 million hectares, respectively, and mainly located along the 100th meridian. Only a portion of this marginal land (1.4–2.2 million hectares with confidence and 14.8–19.4 million hectares with uncertainty) is in the rainfed region and not in crop production and, thus, suitable for producing energy crops without diverting land from food crops in 2016. These estimates are much smaller than the estimates obtained by previous studies, which consider all biophysically low-quality land to be marginal without considering economical marginality. The estimate of marginal land for bioenergy crops obtained in this study is an indicator of the availability of economically marginal land that is suitable for bioenergy crop production; whether this land is actually converted to bioenergy crops will depend on the market conditions. Here, we note the inability to conduct field-level validation of cropland in transition and leave it to future advances in technology to ground-truth land use change and its relationship to economically marginal land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Effect of Spectrally Varying Albedo of Vegetation Surfaces on Shortwave Radiation Fluxes and Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing

This study develops an algorithm for representing detailed spectral features of vegetation albedo based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) observations at 7 discrete channels, referred to as the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Albedo (MEVA) algorithm. The MEVA algorithm empirically fills spectral gaps around the vegetation red edge near 0.7 micrometers and vegetation water absorption features at 1.48 and 1.92 micrometers which cannot be adequately captured by the MODIS 7 channels. We then assess the effects of applying MEVA in comparison to four other traditional approaches to calculate solar fluxes and aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) at the top of atmosphere (TOA) based on the MODIS discrete reflectance bands. By comparing the DRF results obtained through the MEVA method with the results obtained through the other four traditional approaches, we show that filling the spectral gap of the MODIS measurements around 0.7 micrometers based on the general spectral behavior of healthy green vegetation leads to significant improvement in the instantaneous aerosol DRF at TOA (up to 3.02Wm(exp -2) difference or 48% fraction of the aerosol DRF, .6.28Wm(exp -2), calculated for high spectral resolution surface reflectance from 0.3 to 2.5 micrometers for deciduous vegetation surface). The corrections of the spectral gaps in the vegetation spectrum in the near infrared, again missed by the MODIS reflectances, also contributes to improving TOA DRF calculations but to a much lower extent (less than 0.27Wm(exp -2), or about 4% of the instantaneous DRF). Compared to traditional approaches, MEVA also improves the accuracy of the outgoing solar flux between 0.3 to 2.5 micrometers at TOA by over 60Wm(exp -2) (for aspen 3 surface) and aerosol DRF by over 10Wm(exp -2) (for dry grass). Specifically, for Amazon vegetation types, MEVA can improve the accuracy of daily averaged aerosol radiative forcing in the spectral range of 0.3 to 2.5 micrometers at equator at the equinox by 3.7Wm(exp -2). These improvements indicate that MEVA can contribute to regional climate studies over vegetated areas and can help to improve remote sensing-based studies of climate processes and climate change.

Zhu, L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Transient Traceability Analysis of Land Carbon Storage Dynamics: Procedures and Its Application to Two Forest Ecosystems

Abstract Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage ( X ) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity ( X c ) and C storage potential ( X p ). X c is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and X p represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. X c is codetermined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (τ N ), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. X p is the product of redistribution matrix (τ ch ) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that different mechanisms lead to a similar trajectory between the two ecosystems. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗