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At least 487 records · Page 27

Modeling evacuation demand during no-notice emergency events: Tour formation behavior

Disastrous events have been drastically increasing – both in frequency and destructive capacity – over the past few years. While advance-notice events have received a great deal of attention in the literature of disaster management, not much attention so far has been given to the no-notice events mainly because of the scarcity of data. As an attempt to address this critical gap, the current study proposes a disaggregate evacuation demand framework to understand evacuees’ travel behavior in case of no-notice emergency events. Here, the proposed framework comprises four main steps of evacuation decision, evacuation planning, tour formation, and activity schedule update. This article is dedicated to the introduction of the framework structure and elaboration on the tour formation step. In this step, we first estimate the total number of intermediate stops, travel time, and distance of the evacuation tours for those who decide to evacuate through a joint modeling structure and then, determine the type of each intermediate stop (if any). It is found that a broad range of factors including evacuees’ demographic profiles, built-environment attributes, and characteristics of the disastrous event plays a significant role in people’s evacuation behavior during no-notice emergency events. The findings of this study can assist responsible agencies in understanding evacuees’ complex behavior, and consequently, in devising effective strategies to alleviate economic damages and casualties resulted by such events.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Transportation Fuel Resiliency: Case Study of Tampa Bay

Here, this case study presents findings from an analysis of the emergency preparation and response for Hurricane Irma, the most recent hurricane impacting the Tampa Bay region. The Tampa Bay region, in particular, is considered one of the most vulnerable areas in the United States to hurricanes and severe tropical weather. A particular vulnerability stems from how all petroleum fuel comes to the area by marine transport through Port Tampa Bay, which can be (and has been in the past) impacted by hurricanes and tropical storms. The case study discussed in this paper covers previous fuel challenges, vulnerabilities, and lessons learned by key Tampa Bay public agency fleets during the past 10 years (mainly as a result of the most recent 2017 Hurricane Irma) to explore ways to improve the area’s resilience to natural disasters. Some of the strategies for fuel-supply resiliency include maintaining emergency fuel supply, prioritizing fuel use, strategically placing the assets around the region to help with recovery, investing in backup generators (including generators powered by alternative fuels), planning for redundancies in fuel supply networks, developing more efficient communication procedures between public fleets, hurricane preparedness-planning, and upgrading street drainage systems to reduce the threat of local flooding.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

ERAD: A Graph-Based Tool for Energy Resilience Analysis of Electric Distribution Systems

Understanding the impact of extreme events on people's ability to access energy is crucial for designing resilient energy systems. In the event of a disaster, damage to the electric system and related infrastructure (e.g., downed power lines, flooded equipment, hacked communication systems, damaged roads, etc.) can impact people's access to critical services, including not just electricity but also shelter, food, healthcare, and more. There is a key need to understand such impacts better and evaluate options to improve energy resilience. The Energy Resilience Analysis for Electric Distribution Systems (ERAD) tool is a free and open-source software package designed to help researchers and decision-makers analyze and improve energy system resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Solar Photovoltaics in Severe Weather: Cost Considerations for Storm Hardening PV Systems for Resilience

Solar photovoltaic (PV) power has many advantages as a resilient power source, including the ability to provide power after a natural disaster. While solar arrays often survive severe weather events, systems are occasionally compromised and left unable to provide power. For PV systems to act as resilient power providers, they must remain operational. Building a system that is more likely to survive a storm comes at a cost, though. Previous efforts have identified various system measures and practices that can increase the likelihood of a PV system surviving a severe weather event. But what is the cost premium for a storm hardened PV system? This report provides initial estimates for the up-front cost premiums for various methods of storm hardening PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Clear Sky Toolkit: Decision Support User Guide

The Clear Sky Decision Support Template is a Microsoft Excel-based resource that enables users to screen and prioritize critical facilities for the addition of solar + storage. The Decision Support Template consolidates and streamlines the most relevant resources from the emergency management discipline, the electric utility sector, and national energy research institutions to assist in further site analysis and decision-making. The Decision Support Template is intended for use by local government and private sector decision-makers who aim to mitigate the effects of power outages on critical infrastructure, understand the potential for deploying photovoltaic (PV) and storage solutions on critical facilities, and align emergency management planning processes and utility needs with community resilience objectives. The Decision Support Template is divided into five modules that provide a structured, step-by-step approach users can follow and apply to unique circumstances. This process guides a more thorough and accurate assessment of a site's potential to accommodate a solar + storage system, provide grid benefits to utilities, and support community resilience and disaster mitigation for the broader region. After identifying potentially viable and preferred sites for solar + storage using the Decision Support Template, users should conduct a more detailed evaluation and consultation with a solar professional.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Clear Sky Tampa Bay: Project and Toolkit Overview - Resilience-Based Resources for Assessing Solar + Storage on Critical Facilities

The Clear Sky Tampa Bay Team, convened by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (TBRPC) and composed of county and city partners, private and public sector stakeholders, solar energy experts, and academic partners, collaboratively developed a set of resources to support the expanded use of solar + storage in the context of community resilience in Florida. Key questions guiding the project included: (1) What types of buildings and systems provide the maximum resilience benefits? (2) Where within our communities should we prioritize future solar + storage analysis or investment to mitigate the impacts of disasters? (3) How might other societal variables be incorporated into a site assessment when considering solar + storage for resilience? (4) Can a standardized process be developed that leverages existing resources to assist local governments with solar + storage for resilience research and decision-making?

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quick Talk: Resilient Communities, Maryland

Groundswell, Inc., in partnership with the Maryland Energy Administration (MEA), Ayika Solutions, the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), and the Baltimore Office of Sustainability, is advancing a vision for resilient, community-centered energy systems in Maryland. This effort aligns with Groundswell's commitment to a clean energy economy that equitably benefits all communities, closing gaps in representation, wages, and access to wealth generation, savings, and local jobs within a diverse energy supply chain. Project Vision and Objectives The project emphasizes "energy resilience," defined as a community’s capacity to anticipate, adapt to, and swiftly recover from power disruptions through inclusive planning and technical solutions. The approach centers on Resilience Hubs—designated community facilities equipped to support residents before, during, and after power-related disruptions. These hubs offer emergency resources, coordinate communications, and deliver essential services while reducing carbon emissions, ultimately enhancing residents' quality of life. Additionally, Resilience Hubs foster social connections, support disaster preparedness, and provide spaces for community programming and everyday use. The goals of Resilient Communities Maryland include: Developing a replicable framework for community energy resilience, applicable beyond Maryland. Defining community-led indicators of social impact and resilience. Establishing equitable decision-making processes in project design and implementation. Informing MEA of practical, community-based resilience strategies to shape future state initiatives. Approach Groundswell and its partners prioritize collaborative engagement with local stakeholders, ensuring that solutions are responsive to each community's unique needs. By integrating feedback from residents, local organizations, and government entities, the team has developed a holistic model for resilience that balances immediate benefits, such as improved emergency response, with long-term gains in social equity and environmental sustainability. Key Outcomes This initiative has produced valuable resources and insights, including: A Community Energy Resilience Framework: Designed to guide other communities in establishing energy resilience strategies tailored to their specific needs. Case Studies: Documenting best practices and lessons learned from pilot projects to serve as models for future resilience efforts. Community-Driven Impact Metrics: Highlighting the positive social impacts that resilience initiatives can bring, such as improved social connectedness and local decision-making power. Recommendations for MEA: Offering evidence-based insights to inform policies and funding opportunities that support resilient energy infrastructure in vulnerable communities. Next Steps Groundswell's final report will detail findings, including the potential for scaling resilience hubs across Maryland and other regions, with a focus on equitable access and community-driven outcomes. This project underscores the importance of aligning energy resilience with social equity, reinforcing community agency, and building systems that withstand and recover from future challenges effectively and sustainably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Weather-Driven Resilience for Distribution Systems

With increasing billion dollar disasters due to weather events, it is of utmost priority for utility and grid operators to maintain and enhance the resilience of distribution grid. Traditionally, such analysis were conducted with reliability metrics alone. However, with increasing complexity of distribution grid and advancements in grid edge resources, evaluating grid resilience is challenging and involves multi-faceted analysis of the impact of weather events on the distribution grid. This presentation provides background, details, and future works in the field of weather-driven resilience for power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SMART Subsea Cables for Observing the Earth and Ocean, Mitigating Environmental Hazards, and Supporting the Blue Economy

The Joint Task Force, Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications (JTF SMART) Subsea Cables, is working to integrate environmental sensors for ocean bottom temperature, pressure, and seismic acceleration into submarine telecommunications cables. The purpose of SMART Cables is to support climate and ocean observation, sea level monitoring, observations of Earth structure, and tsunami and earthquake early warning and disaster risk reduction, including hazard quantification. Recent advances include regional SMART pilot systems that are the first steps to trans-ocean and global implementation. Examples of pilots include: InSEA wet demonstration project off Sicily at the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory Western Ionian Facility; New Caledonia and Vanuatu; French Polynesia Natitua South system connecting Tahiti to Tubaui to the south; Indonesia starting with short pilot systems working toward systems for the Sumatra-Java megathrust zone; and the CAM-2 ring system connecting Lisbon, Azores, and Madeira. This paper describes observing system simulations for these and other regions. Funding reflects a blend of government, development bank, philanthropic foundation, and commercial contributions. In addition to notable scientific and societal benefits, the telecommunications enterprise’s mission of global connectivity will benefit directly, as environmental awareness improves both the integrity of individual cable systems as well as the resilience of the overall global communications network. SMART cables support the outcomes of a predicted, safe, and transparent ocean as envisioned by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and the Blue Economy. As a continuation of the OceanObs’19 conference and community white paper (Howe et al., 2019, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00424), an overview of the SMART programme and a description of the status of ongoing projects are given.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space shuttle operations at the NASA Kennedy Space Center: the role of emergency medicine

The Division of Emergency Medicine at the University of Florida coordinates a unique program with the NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to provide emergency medical support (EMS) for the United States Space Transportation System. This report outlines the organization of the KSC EMS system, training received by physicians providing medical support, logistic and operational aspects of the mission, and experiences of team members. The participation of emergency physicians in support of manned space flight represents another way that emergency physicians provide leadership in prehospital care and disaster management.

Emergency Medicine/education/organization & admini↗

When Weather Matters: Science and Service to Meet Critical Societal Needs

The goal of weather prediction is to provide information people and organizations can use to reduce weather-related losses and enhance societal benefits, including protection of life and property, public health and safety, and support of economic prosperity and quality of life. In economic terms, the benefit of the investment in public weather forecasts and warnings is substantial: the estimated annualized benefit is about $31.5 billion, compared to the $5.1 billion cost of generating the information. Between 1980 and 2009, 96 weather disasters in the United States each caused at least $1 billion in damages, with total losses exceeding $700 billion. Between 1999 and 2008, there were an average of 629 direct weather fatalities per year. The annual impacts of adverse weather on the national highway system and roads are staggering: 1.5 million weather-related crashes with 7,400 deaths, more than 700,000 injuries, and $42 billion in economic losses.

Weather forecasting↗

Developing Land Use Land Cover Maps for the Lower Mekong Basin to Aid Hydrologic Modeling and Basin Planning

This paper discusses research methodology to develop Land Use Land Cover (LULC) mapsfor the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) for basin planning, using both MODIS and Landsat satellitedata. The 2010 MODIS MOD09 and MYD09 8-day reflectance data was processed into monthlyNDVI maps with the Time Series Product Tool software package and then used to classify regionallycommon forest and agricultural LULC types. Dry season circa 2010 Landsat top of atmosphere reflectance mosaics were classified to map locally common LULC types. Unsupervised ISODATAclustering was used to derive most LULC classifications. MODIS and Landsat classifications werecombined with GIS methods to derive final 250-m LULC maps for Sub-basins (SBs) 1–8 of the LMB.The SB 7 LULC map with 14 classes was assessed for accuracy. This assessment compared randomlocations for sampled types on the SB 7 LULC map to geospatial reference data such as Landsat RGBs,MODIS NDVI phenologic profiles, high resolution satellite data, and Mekong River Commissiondata (e.g., crop calendars). The SB 7 LULC map showed an overall agreement to reference data of~81%. By grouping three deciduous forest classes into one, the overall agreement improved to ~87%.The project enabled updated regional LULC maps that included more detailed agriculture LULCtypes. LULC maps were supplied to project partners to improve use of Soil andWater AssessmentTool for modeling hydrology and water use, plus enhance LMB water and disaster managementin a region vulnerable to flooding, droughts, and anthropogenic change as part of basin planningand assessment.

land use land cover mapping; SWAT hydrologic model↗

Perspectives on flood forecast-based early action and opportunities for Earth observations

This paper seeks to identify opportunities to integrate Earth observations (EO) into flood forecast-based early action and propose future directions for research and collaboration between EO and humanitarian communities. Forecast-based early action (FbA) is an approach to shift disaster response toward anticipation to mitigate impacts to at-risk communities; however, timely and accurate information is needed in the development of data-based triggers and thresholds for action. Therefore, this paper considers the readiness of a wide range of EO for flood monitoring and forecasting in the design, operations, and evaluation phases of FbA. The most significant opportunities for EO to inform FbA efforts lie in the design and evaluation phases, as EO can aid in the development of impact-based triggers. The EO products most readily applicable include precipitation, streamflow estimates, and exposure mapping, and those requiring the greatest amount of further research include vulnerability and impact assessments. This paper identifies collaboration opportunities for the EO and humanitarian communities to create tailored products, such as overlays combining flood extents with exposure maps. Such collaboration opportunities can be fostered by open data sharing, data verification efforts, and incentives for supporting boundary organizations capable of enabling the use of EO for FbA.

disasters↗

Designing Resilience for Advanced Energy Systems

Advancements in energy technologies are making the grid more powerful, more efficient, and cleaner. As these promising innovations flourish across our communities, it is essential that our nation's infrastructure also becomes more resilient. Natural disasters, cyberattacks, user error, and a changing climate all present risks that could have devastating consequences. Individual emergencies are unique, but holistic planning and proactive measures can harden the grid and help anticipate and respond to any number of threats. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is at the forefront of this transition, establishing a vision for resilient energy systems today, and in the future.

energy disruption↗

Dynamics and Control of Microgrids as a Resiliency Source

Microgrids can be operated in a utility-connected mode with the neighboring distribution system or in an islanded mode in separation with the distribution system. As the major disasters occur more and more often, islanded microgrid is proposed as a possible solution to serve essential loads until the utility service is restored. This paper evaluates the feasibility of using microgrids as a resiliency resource by a field test. A control scheme, integrating droop control and feedback control, is applied on a modified IEEE 13-node test feeders. The simulation results validate the proposed control scheme and the transient stability

Lee, Lung-An↗

Sensitivity of Fine‐Resolution Urban Heat Island Simulations to Soil Moisture Parameterization

ABSTRACT Urban areas experience the impact of natural disasters, such as heatwaves and flash floods, disparately in different neighbourhoods across a city. The demand for precise urban hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological modelling to examine this disparity, and the interacting challenges posed by climate change and urbanisation, has thus surged. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has served such operational and research purposes for decades. Recent advancements in WRF, including enhanced numerical schemes and sophisticated urban atmospheric‐hydrological parameterizations, have empowered the simulation of urban geophysical processes at high resolution (~1 km), but even this resolution misses significant urban microclimate variability. This study applies the large‐eddy simulations (LES) mode within WRF, coupled with single‐layer urban canopy models (SLUCM), to enable even finer‐scale modelling (150 m) of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in the Baltimore metropolitan area. We run nine scenarios to evaluate various methods of initializing soil moisture and various spinup lead times, and to assess the impact of WRF's Mosaic approach in depicting subgrid‐scale processes. We evaluate the scenarios by comparing the WRF simulated land surface temperature (LST) against Landsat LST and the WRF simulated hourly 2‐m air temperatures (AT) with observations from eight weather stations across the domain. Results underscore the paramount influence of the lead spinup time on the spatiotemporal distribution of simulated soil moisture, consequently shaping WRF's efficacy in predicting the UHI. Furthermore, interpolating soil moisture‐related parameters from the parent for child domain initialization yields a notable reduction in mean and root‐mean‐squared errors. This improvement was particularly evident in simulations with the longest spinup time, affirming the importance of carefully designing the initialization of soil moisture for improved urban temperature predictions.

Talebpour, Mahdad↗

The quality/cosmology tension for a post-inflation QCD axion

Abstract It is difficult to construct a post-inflation QCD axion model that solves the axion quality problem (and hence the Strong CP problem) without introducing a cosmological disaster. In a post-inflation axion model, the axion field value is randomized during the Peccei-Quinn phase transition, and axion domain walls form at the QCD phase transition. We emphasize that the gauge equivalence of all minima of the axion potential (i.e., domain wall number equals one) is insufficient to solve the cosmological domain wall problem. The axion string on which a domain wall ends must exist as an individual object (as opposed to a multi-string state), and it must be produced in the early universe. These conditions are often not satisfied in concrete models. Post-inflation axion models also face a potential problem from fractionally charged relics; solving this problem often leads to low-energy Landau poles for Standard Model gauge couplings, reintroducing the quality problem. We study several examples, finding that models that solve the quality problem face cosmological problems, and vice versa. This is not a no-go theorem; nonetheless, we argue that it is much more difficult than generally appreciated to find a viable post-inflation QCD axion model. Successful examples may have a nonstandard cosmological history (e.g., multiple types of cosmic axion strings of different tensions), undermining the widespread expectation that the post-inflation QCD axion scenario predicts a unique mass for axion dark matter.

Physics↗

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.

+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗