Power Distribution System Characterization With Active Probing: Real-World Testing and Analysis
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
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Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications
Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Diffusion characteristics of water molecules in a lamellar structure formed by triblock copolymers
The distribution and diffusion of water molecules are playing important roles in determining self-assembly and transport properties of polymeric systems. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) experiments and molecular dynamics (MD) simulation have been applied to understand the distribution of water molecules and their dynamics in the lamellar membrane formed by Pluronic L62 block copolymers. Penetration of water molecules into the polyethylene oxide (PEO) layers of the membranes has been estimated using scattering length density (SLD) profiles obtained from SANS measurements, which agree well with the molecular distribution observed from MD simulations. The water diffusion coefficient at different regions of the lamellar membrane was further investigated using MD simulation. The diffusion characteristic shows a transition from normal to anomalous diffusion as the position of the water molecule changes from the bulk to PEO and to the polypropylene oxide (PPO) layer. Here we find that water molecules within the PEO or PPO layers follow subdiffusive dynamics, which can be interpreted by the model of fractional Brownian motion.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
An Evaluation of Advanced Tools for Distributed Wind Turbine Performance Estimation
We evaluate various classes of distributed wind turbine performance tools across two sites in the United States. The class of tools ranges from the simple mass conservation model to the coupled Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model, all initiated by the WIND Toolkit data set. The resource estimation at the site is evaluated against measured data at the mast location. Taking a sample 100-kW wind turbine and constant losses, we evaluate Openwind, Continuum, and WindNinja tools and document annual energy production (AEP) and time-series statistics associated with the performance estimation of the wind turbine. Using a methodology that is consistent and unbiased across the three options currently available in the industry, we elaborate results at the two sample locations and discuss the probable sources of discrepancy in the AEP estimates. Two main sources of the discrepancy come from the input WIND Toolkit data and the spatial modeling techniques of the tools to capture atmospheric physics. The discussion includes additional values that these tools may bring into the energy assessment process to enhance the owners' confidence over the distributed wind power systems.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Digital twin advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) and methods
Advanced Distribution Management Systems not generally optimize over the entire feeder because there are few high-fidelity distribution circuit models and real-time distribution-connected sensors are rare. The limited observability at the distribution level makes it difficult to globally optimize distribution operations and issue control setpoints to power systems equipment or Distributed Energy Resources (DER) to perform grid-support services. For example, setpoints can be issued to DER based on results from an optimization module that incorporates a static or time-series feeder simulation. Feeder simulation initial conditions are populated with photovoltaic (PV) and load forecasts, state estimation results, and/or digital twin measurements or state output. The real-time (RT) digital twin runs a model of the feeder to generate state estimation pseudo-measurements since there are limited live feeder measurements.
Johnson, Jay Tillay↗
Model of Operation-and-Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems
This article presents a method for calculating costs associated with operation and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) systems. It compiles details regarding the cost and frequency of multiple O&M services to estimate annual O&M costs ($\$$/year) for each year of an analysis period, the net present value ($\$$) of life cycle costs accumulated over the analysis period, and the reserve account amount ($\$$). Here we show that this method is an improvement over the previous averaged or levelized per-unit ($\$$/kW/year) valuations for estimating PV O&M costs, because it allows a detailed selection of services to perform based on system size, market served (e.g., residential, commercial, or utility), type and configuration of system components (e.g., micro-, string or central inverter) and site and environmental conditions (e.g., snow, pollen, bird populations). This model also distinguishes costs that vary from year to year and increase at different rates over time because of heuristic failure distributions (e.g. Weibull or Lognormal distribution) based on actuarial data for many of the services. This cost model was created by the PV O&M Working Group of researchers and industry, sponsored by DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office, and has been published in an on-line version hosted by SunSpec Alliance at apsuite.sunspec.org. A spreadsheet version is included with this paper as supplementary material.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Evaluating the Effects of Precipitation and Evapotranspiration on Soil Moisture Variability Within CMIP5 Using SMAP and ERA5 Data
=The effects of precipitation (Pr) and evapotranspiration (ET) on surface soil moisture (SSM) play an essential role in the land-atmosphere system. Here we evaluate multimodel differences of these effects within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) compared to Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) products and ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) as references in a frequency domain. The variability of SSM, Pr, and ET within three frequency bands (1/7 ~ 1/30 days -1 , 1/30 ~ 1/90 days -1 , and 1/90 ~ 1/365 days -1 ) after normalization is quantified using Fourier transform. We analyze the impact of ET and Pr on SSM variability based on a transfer function assuming that these variables form a linear time-invariant (LTI) system. For the total effects of ET and Pr on SSM variability, the CMIP5 estimations are smaller than the reference data in the two higher frequency bands and are larger than the reference data in the lowest frequency band. Besides, the effects on SSM by Pr and ET are found to be different across the three frequency bands. In each frequency band, the variability of the factor that dominates SSM (i.e., Pr or ET) from CMIP5 is smaller than that from the references. This study identifies the spatiotemporal distribution of differences between CMIP5 models and references (SMAP and ERA5) in simulating ET and Pr effects on SSM within three frequency bands. This study provides insightful information on how soil moisture variability is affected by varying precipitation and evapotranspiration at different time scales within Earth System Models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Spatiotemporal Pattern Recognition in the PMU Signals in the WECC system
Phasor measurement unit (PMU) data has been used by multiple power system applications, including state estimation, post event analysis, oscillation detection, model validation, and many others. Still, due to its big data nature and availability to general research institutions, comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying mechanisms are incomplete. This study applies a set of signal processing and machine learning approaches aiming at deciphering the characteristic behaviors of multiple phasor measurement units (PMUs) attributes (e.g., voltage, frequency, rate of change of frequency, phase angle), including their auto-correlation, cross-dependence, similarities and discrepancies across units and temporal scales, and distributions of anomalies and their linkages to potential external factors such as weather events. Data analytics are applied to PMUs from the U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The PMU measurements, recorded events, outages, and weather extremes are all from real world datasets. The findings from the study and mechanistic understanding of the PMU dynamics help provide guidance on system control or preventing blackouts. The derived metrics can be directly used for adjusting or filtering simulated PMU data used for advanced algorithm development.
Hou, Zhangshuan↗
Performance Comparison of Clipping Detection Techniques in AC Power Time Series
In this research, a variety of methods were developed to detect clipping periods in AC power time series. AC power data streams associated with 36 unique systems across the United States were collected, and data points representing clipping periods were manually labeled by experts. Using this data set for training and validation, novel logic-based and machine learning (ML) approaches were developed to classify time series values as clipping or non-clipping. These approaches were compared to the RdTools method for detecting clipping periods. The logic-based and ML XGBoost approaches achieved F-scores of 85.0 and 77.6, respectively, when cross-validated against the manually labeled data, as compared to the current RdTools approach (F-score of 56.4), indicating a significant improvement at detecting clipping periods. Additionally, the effects of each clipping filter when evaluating system degradation rates were assessed, using 31 unique systems across the United States. Results indicate that estimated system degradation rate can vary based on the type of clipping filter used, by up to 0.6% degradation rate for some cases.
clipping↗
Quantifying the time‐specific kinetic energy of simulated rainfall using a dynamic rain gauge system
Abstract Raindrop impact derives from the kinetic energy of falling raindrops. Determining the kinetic energy of rainfall requires the size distribution and terminal velocity of raindrops, which necessitates complex instrumentation. To avoid this, empirical relations have been developed that relate rainfall intensity and the rate of kinetic energy, i.e., time‐specific kinetic energy (KE time ). In this study, a dynamic rain gauge system (DRGS) was used to quantify the KE time generated by a rainfall simulator without need of measuring raindrop size distributions or impact velocities. In a series of 10 rainfall tests, the KE time and rainfall intensity were 860.9 (±88.6) J m 2 h −1 and 72.1 (±1.9) mm h −1 , respectively. Estimated KE time was found to agree well with the power‐law relation presented by Petrů and Kalibová for high‐intensity simulated rainfall, which are the conditions when higher deviations occur. The DRGS may be a useful tool in quantifying the KE time of rainfall simulators in hopes to better understand raindrop impact mechanisms.
Wacha, Kenneth M.↗
Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems
Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Porosity-Permeability Evolution During Simultaneous Mineral Dissolution and Precipitation
Permeability in reactive porous media evolves in complex ways that are hard to predict. Macroscopic empirical equations are often used to estimate permeability evolution but fail to reflect the impact of pore scale reactions on permeability. This work aims to understand the evolution of permeability in systems where mineral dissolution and precipitation occur simultaneously. Pore network models are used for permeability simulation of a Paluxy sandstone using pore and pore-throat size distributions from the analysis of X-ray CT images. Pore and pore-throat radii are increased and decreased to reflect the effects of dissolution and precipitation reactions. Varying spatial distributions of reactions are simulated and the resulting porosity and permeability values compared with commonly used macroscopic equations. It is observed that when dissolution occurs at the inlet and precipitation at the outlet, porosity increases while permeability decreases. Similar results are also observed in the respective opposite scenario where precipitation occurs at the inlet and dissolution at the outlet. When dissolution and precipitation reactions are randomly distributed throughout the network, porosity increases with little change in permeability that is not captured by the empirical equations. When reactions are controlled by pore and pore-throat sizes, such as dissolution occurring in pores and pore-throats of small size and precipitation in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability decrease. When precipitation occurs in pores and pore-throats of smaller size and dissolution in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability increase and is described relatively well by the Verma-Pruess porosity-permeability equation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Constructing auxiliary dynamics for nonequilibrium stationary states by variance minimization
We present a strategy to construct guiding distribution functions (GDFs) based on variance minimization. Auxiliary dynamics via GDFs mitigates the exponential growth of variance as a function of bias in Monte Carlo estimators of large deviation functions. The variance minimization technique exploits the exact properties of eigenstates of the tilted operator that defines the biased dynamics in the nonequilibrium system. We demonstrate our techniques in two classes of problems. In the continuum, we show that GDFs can be optimized to study the interacting driven diffusive systems where the efficiency is systematically improved by incorporating higher correlations into the GDF. On the lattice, we use a correlator product state ansatz to study the 1D weakly asymmetric simple exclusion process. We show that with modest resources, we can capture the features of the susceptibility in large systems that mark the phase transition from uniform transport to a traveling wave state. Our work extends the repertoire of tools available to study nonequilibrium properties in realistic systems.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Theoretical investigation of decoherence channels in athermal phonon sensors
The creation and evolution of nonequilibrium phonons is central in applications ranging from cosmological particle searches to decoherence processes in qubits. However, the fundamental understanding of decoherence pathways for athermal phonon distributions in solid-state systems remains an open question. Using first-principles calculations, we investigate the primary decay channels of athermal phonons in two technologically relevant semiconductors—Si and GaAs. We quantify the contributions of anharmonic, isotopic, and interfacial scattering in these materials. From this, we construct a model to estimate the thermal power in a readout scheme as a function of time. We discuss the implication of our results on noise limitations in current phonon sensor designs and strategies for improving coherence in next-generation phonon sensors.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Revenue-Maximizing Shared Parking and Electric Vehicle Charging Management in Multi-Unit Dwellings
In urban areas, searching for parking and electric vehicle (EV) charging can result in cruising, congestion, and environmental externalities. Recognizing the business opportunity of offering private parking and charging infrastructure access within multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) during daytime, we model a shared parking and EV charging management system. We maximize the revenue of MUD charging hubs in mixed land use, catering to public demand. Our approach accounts for the objectives of the two stakeholders involved: a demand model is fitted on the choices of EV charging users, and the supply model optimizes the allocation of parking and charging requests in an MUD parking lot. A binary integer linear programming model for the allocation of parking and charging spaces with a rolling horizon is integrated with matching rules that handle both parking and charging requests. In our numerical experiments in a neighborhood of Chicago, Illinois, we estimate the performance of the MUD parking and charging system with metrics that include revenue, number of matchings, and utilization rates. At any given time, MUDs with lower prices attract more charging requests, particularly those of longer duration, resulting in higher revenue and greater charging utilization. Dynamic pricing facilitates a more equitable distribution of requests; as MUD parking lots reach capacity and their fees increase, other MUDs become more competitive, attracting additional requests. Comparing our method against first-come-first-served and optimal-solution benchmarks, we demonstrate our model’s effectiveness in dynamically managing mixed parking and charging demand in MUD charging hubs.
electric vehicle, multi-unit dwelling, charging in↗
Global weak solutions for a nonlocal multispecies Fokker–Planck–Landau system
The global-in-time existence of weak solutions to a spatially homogeneous multispecies Fokker–Planck–Landau system for plasmas in the three-dimensional whole space is shown. The Fokker–Planck–Landau system is a simplification of the Landau equations assuming a linearized, velocity-independent, and isotropic kernel. The resulting equations depend nonlocally and nonlinearly on the moments of the distribution functions via the multispecies local Maxwellians. Furthermore, the existence proof is based on a three-level approximation scheme, energy and entropy estimates, as well as compactness results, and it holds for both soft and hard potentials.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Energy characteristics of multi-chiller load distribution algorithms in a large office building
Here, this study evaluates the energy efficiency of multi-chiller systems in large office buildings, focusing on their optimization across various climate zones as defined by ASHRAE. Using EnergyPlus for simulations, the research examines five different load distribution algorithms in multi-chiller systems that range from one to ten chillers, aiming to understand their effectiveness in 15 distinct climate zones. The primary objectives of the study include identifying the energy efficiency of multi-chiller systems in each climate zone, determining the appropriate number of chillers for each zone, and evaluating the performance of the load distribution algorithms. Based on the U.S. Department of Energy’s commercial building model, the results suggest that multi-chiller systems can significantly reduce cooling energy consumption in various climates. Among the algorithms evaluated, the Sequential Uniform Part Load Ratio (SUPLR) algorithm demonstrates notable efficiency, especially in the 4A climate zone (Baltimore), where it achieves substantial energy savings. Applying the SUPLR algorithm in a multi-chiller setup with four chillers in this zone leads to an estimated 24.5 % reduction in energy usage, equivalent to 183 MW annually. The research indicates that a range of 3 to 5 chillers is typically optimal for most climate zones. In-depth analysis in the 4A climate zone highlights the importance of minimizing operation hours at low Part Load Ratios (PLR) to ensure that chillers operate at a high Coefficient of Performance (COP). This strategy underscores the potential of well-designed multi-chiller systems to reduce cooling energy demand, particularly in climates with transitional seasons. This study provides an overview of the energy-saving potential of multi-chiller systems, applicable across a variety of climatic scenarios.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Aging Effect Analysis of PV Inverter Semiconductors for Ancillary Services Support
PV inverters can provide reactive power while generating active power. An ongoing microgrid implementation at Duke Energy actively engages non-utility PVs to generate/absorb reactive power in support of ancillary services to increase microgrid resiliency during extreme events. PV systems are requested to provide reactive power support: 1) in response to grid voltage variation to better regulate the local voltage; or 2) in response to utility incentives, such as following Transactive Energy System (TES) incentives. However, providing ancillary services might shorten the lifetime expectation of PV inverter semiconductors. This paper summarizes the potential impacts on a PV inverter semiconductor's lifetime when providing ancillary services. The analysis presented in this research work shows that providing reactive power support will increase the mean junction temperature and the junction temperature variation of the inverter diodes. This increased junction temperature will eventually lead to shorter diode lifetime. The lifetime estimation of semiconductors is briefly reviewed. The power losses of PV inverter semiconductors are derived as a support analysis to the junction temperature calculation. In addition, the impact of the filtering inductor on the semiconductor current distribution is discussed. The theoretical analysis presented in this research work is supported by simulation results.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗