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This presentation details the current project status and approach for the VTO funded project "Holistic Modeling of Future Transportation Energy Use and Emissions" using the TEMPO model.
We study the X-ray emission in a sample of galaxy clusters using the BeppoSAX PDS instrument in the 20-80 keV energy band. We estimate the nonthermal hard X-ray (HXR) cluster emission by modeling the thermal contribution from the cluster gas and the nonthermal contamination from the unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the clusters. We also evaluate the systematic uncertainties due to the background fluctuations. Assuming negligible contamination from the obscured AGNs, the resulting nonthermal component is detected at a 2 sigma level in approx. 50% of the nonsignificantly AGN-contaminated clusters: A2142, A2199, A2256, A3376, Coma, Ophiuchus, and Virgo. The data are consistent with a scenario whereby relaxed clusters have no hard X-ray component of nonthermal origin, whereas merger clusters do, with a 20-80 keV luminosity of approx. 10(exp 43)-10(exp 44) h(sup -2 sub 50) ergs/s. The co-added spectrum of the above clusters indicates a power-law spectrum for the HXR emission with a photon index of 2.8(sup +0.3 sub -0.4) in the 12-115 keV band, and we find indication that it has extended distribution. These indications argue against significant contamination from obscured AGNs, which have harder spectra and a centrally concentrated distribution. These results are supportive of the assumption of the merger shock acceleration of electrons in clusters, which has been proposed as a possible origin of the nonthermal hard X-ray emission models. Assuming that the cosmic microwave background photons experience inverse Compton scattering from the merger-accelerated relativistic electrons and thus produce the observed HXR, the measured hard X-ray slope corresponds to a differential momentum spectra of the relativistic electrons with a slope of mu = 3.8-5.0. In presence of cluster magnetic fields this relativistic electron population produces synchrotron emission with a spectral index of 1.4-2.1, consistent with radio halo observations of merger clusters. Thus both hard X-ray and radio observations of merger clusters are consistent with the inverse Compton model.
We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency’s projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency’s roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.
Current models estimate global aviation contributes approximately 5% to the total anthropogenic climate forcing, with aerosol-cloud interactions having the greatest effect. However, radiative forcing estimates from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions remain undetermined. There is an expected significant increase in aircraft emissions with aviation demand expected to rise by over 4% per year. Soot may play an important role in the ice nucleation of aircraft-induced cirrus formation due to a high emission rate, but the ice nucleating properties are poorly constrained. Understanding the microphysical processes leading to atmospheric ice crystal formation is crucial for the reliable parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models due to their impact on precipitation and cloud radiative properties. Ice nucleation of aircraft-emitted soot is potentially affected by particle morphology with condensation of supercooled water occurring in pores followed by ice nucleation. However, soot has heterogeneous properties and undergoes atmospheric aging and oxidation that could change surface properties and contribute to complex ice nucleation processes. Further, this review synthesizes current knowledge of ice nucleation catalyzed by aviation in the cirrus regime and its effects on global radiative forcing. Further research is required to determine the ice nucleation and microphysical processes of cirrus cloud formation from aviation emissions in both controlled laboratory and field investigations to inform models for more accurate climate predictions and to provide efficient mitigation strategies.
Emissivity spectra of particulate mineral samples are highly dependent on particle size when that size is comparable to the wavelength of light emitted (5-50 micrometers for the midinfrared). Proper geologic interpretation of data from planetary infrared spectrometers will require that these particle size effects be well understood. To address this issue, samples of quartz powders were produced with narrow, well-characterized particle size distributions. Mean particle diameters in these samples ranged from 15 to 227 micrometers. Emission spectra of these powders allow the first detailed comparison of the complex spectral variations with particle size observed in laboratory data with the predictions of radiative transfer models. Four such models are considered here. Hapke's relectance theory (converted to emissivity via Kirchoff's law) is the first model tested. Hapke's more recently published emission theory is also employed. The third model, the 'Mie/Conel' model, uses Mie single scattering with a two-stream approximation for multiple scattering. This model, like the first, is a converted reflec- tance model. Mie scattering assumes particles are both spherical and well separated, which is not true for the quartz powders, but includes diffraction effects. The fourth model uses the Mie solution for single scattering by spheres and inputs those results into the multiple scattering formalism of Hapke's emission theory. The results of the four models are considered in relation to the values of the optical constants n and k. We have grouped these as class 1 (k large), class 2 (k moderate, n is approximately 2), class 3 (k small, n is approximately 2), and class 4 (k small, n is approximately 1). In general, the Mie/Hapke hybrid model does best at predicting variations with grain size. In particular, it predicts changes of the correct pattern, although incorrect magnitude, for class 1 bands, where large increases in emissivity with decreasing grain size are observed. This model also does an excellent job on moderate (class 2) and very weak and intraband (class 3) regions, and correctly predicts the emission maximum and its invariance with grain size near the Christiansen frequency (class 4). The Mie/Hapke hybrid model also has the fewest free parameters of the four models examined, while maintaining the most physical treatment of the radiative transfer. The Mie/Conel model performs as well as the Mie/Hapke hybrid model in strong bands (class 1) but does not accurately model the behavior of moderate (class 2) and very weak (class 3) bands.
In this study, we simulate the Solar Wind Charge Exchange (SWCX) soft X-ray emissions at dayside magnetosheath and cusps by using magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and LAtmos TEst Particle (LaTeP) models. MHD models are unable to resolve the particle kinetic effects, such as the different behaviors of ions with different q/m, or distinguish the magnetospheric plasma from the solar wind plasma. We investigate these effects with the LaTeP model. As the LaTeP model does not self-compute magnetic and electric field, the magnetic and electric field data obtained from Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM) and Lagrangian version of the piecewise parabolic method (PPMLR) MHD model are used as the input to LaTeP model. The soft X-ray emissivity maps simulated from pure OpenGGCM and PPMLR MHD approaches and from LaTeP-OpenGGCM and LaTeP-PPMLR approaches are presented and compared. The results indicate that the LaTeP model can well resolve the kinetic effects and can be used to investigate the individual spectral characteristics. Therefore, the LaTeP model is a complementary approach for simulating the X-ray emissions near the dayside magnetopause. We also calculate the ratio of integrated OVII/OVIII line intensities, produced by charge exchange of O7+ ions and O8+ ions, respectively. We find a relatively higher ratio at the bow shock compared to the surrounding areas, suggesting that this ratio can be an effective parameter to identify the bow shock location.
In this paper we present the first early dry season (early June-early August) emission factor measurements for carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (Ca), nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and particulates with a diameter less than 2.5 microns (pM2.5) for southern African grassland and woodland fires. Seasonal emission factors for grassland fires correlate linearly with the proportion of green grass, used as a surrogate for the fuel moisture content, and are higher for products of incomplete combustion in the early part of the dry season compared with later in the dry season. Models of emission factors for NMHC and PM(sub 2.5) versus modified combustion efficiency (MCE) are statistically different in grassland compared with woodland ecosystems. We compare predictions based on the integration of emissions factors from this study, from the southern African Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative 1992 (SAFARI-92), and from SAFARI-2000 with those based on the smaller set of ecosystem-specific emission factors to estimate the effects of using regional-average rather than ecosystem-specific emission factors. We also test the validity of using the SAFARI-92 models for emission factors versus MCE to predict the early dry season emission factors measured in this study. The comparison indicates that the largest discrepancies occur at the low end (0.907) and high end (0.972) of MCE values measured in this study. Finally, we combine our models of MCE versus proportion of green grass for grassland fires with emission factors versus MCE for selected oxygenated volatile organic compounds measured in the SAFARI-2000 campaign to derive the first seasonal emission factors for these compounds. The results of this study demonstrate that seasonal variations in savanna fire emissions are important and should be considered in modeling emissions at regional to continental scales.
The effectiveness of climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies depend on the availability of high-quality future weather data. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of the energy research community and the focus of the climate modeling community, primarily due to a historical lack of communication and collaboration between the two groups. Here, to address this issue, this work provides a comprehensive overview of the critical aspects involved in creating future weather data for building and energy system modeling, including emissions scenarios, general circulation models, downscaling methods, categories of future weather data, and uncertainties in climate simulations. Moreover, it critically evaluates the applicability and suitability of various types of future weather data in five key application scenarios: energy use analysis, resilience analysis, HVAC design, utility-scale analysis, and renewable energy analysis. Finally, this work presents recommendations for high-level actions and research directions to foster collaboration between the energy research and climate modeling communities and to promote the integration of future weather data into energy codes and the design practices of buildings and energy systems.
It is widely believed that the late stages of evolution for Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars are influenced by the presence of binary companions. Unfortunately, there is a lack of direct observational evidence of binarity. However, more recently, strong indirect evidence comes from the discovery of UV emission in a subsample of these objects (fuvAGB stars). AGB stars are comparatively cool objects (< or =3000 K), thus their fluxes falls off drastically for wavelengths 3000 Angstroms and shorter. Therefore, ultraviolet observations offer an important, new technique for detecting the binary companions and/or associated accretion activity. We develop new models of UV emission from fuvAGB stars constrained by GALEX photometry and spectroscopy of these objects. We compare the GALEX UV grism spectra of the AGB M7 star EY Hya to predictions using the spectral synthesis code Cloudy, specifically investigating the ultraviolet wavelength range (1344-2831 Angstroms). We investigate models composed of contributions from a photoionized "hot spot" due to accretion activity around the companion, and "chromospheric" emission from collisionally ionized plasma, to fit the UV observations.
The ESA's Rosetta spacecraft will arrive at comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in 2014. The study of gas and dust emission is primary objective of several instruments on the Rosetta spacecraft, including the Microwave Instrument for the Rosetta Orbiter (MIRO). We developed a model of dust thermal emission to estimate the detectability of dust in the vicinity of the nucleus with MIRO. Our model computes the power received by the MIRO antenna in limb viewing as a function of the geometry of the observations and the physical properties of the grains. We show that detection in the millimeter and submillimeter channels can be achieved near perihelion.
The IR emission of a sample of 24 OH/IR stars is modeled, and the properties of circumstellar dust and mass-loss rate of the central star are derived. It is shown that for some sources the observations of the far-IR emission is well fitted with a lambda exp -1 law, while some have a steeper index of 1.5. For a few sources, the presence of circumstellar ice grains is inferred from detailed studies of the observed 10-micron feature. Dust mass-loss rates are determined from detailed studies for all the stars in this sample. They range from 6.0 x 10 exp -10 solar mass/yr for an optically visible Mira to 2.2 x 10 exp -6 solar mass/yr for a heavily obscured OH/IR star. These dust mass-loss rates are compared to those calculated from IRAS photometry using 12-, 25-, and 60-micron fluxes. The dust mass-loss rates are also compared to gas mass-loss rates determined from OH and CO observations. For stars with tenuous shells, a dust-to-gas ratio of 0.001 is obtained.
A simple model was constructed to calculate the far-infrared emission of galaxies made up of a disk component containing cool dust heated by the general interstellar radiation field and of a molecular cloud component containing warm dust heated by recently formed massive stars. This model is fitted to the optical and far-infrared data of 120 Shapley-Ames galaxies and of 20 optically studied mini-survey galaxies, resulting in the determination of blue face-on extinctions and of the total luminosities of recently born massive stars and disk stars. The ratio of these two luminosities is a more reliable star formation activity index than the previously used ratio L sub IR/L sub B. The results show that infrared selected galaxies are on the average almost three times more dusty than optically selected ones. Only about 10% of the mini-survey galaxies exhibits strongly enhanced star formation.
Astrophysical X-rays bring information about location, energy, time, and polarization. X-rays from compact objects were seen in the first explorations to vary in time. Eclipses and pulsations have simple explanations that identified the importance of X-ray binaries and magnetic neutron stars in the first decade of X-ray astronomy. The dynamics of accretion onto stellar and supermassive black holes and onto neutron stars with relatively low magnetic fields shows up as more complex variations, quasi-periodic oscillations, noise with characteristic frequency spectra, broad-band changes in the energy spectra. To study these variations, RXTE instruments needed to have large area and operational flexibility to find transient activity and observe when it was present. Proportional counters and Phoswich scintillators provided it in a modest mission that has made textbook level contributions to understanding of compact objects. The first seen, and the brightest known, X-ray binary, Sco X-1 is one of a class of neutron stars with low mass companions. Before RXTE, none of these had been seen to show pulsations, though they were hypothesized to be the precursors of radio pulsars with millisecond periods and low magnetic fields. RXTE's large area led to identifying coherent millisecond pulsars in a subset which are relatively faint transients. It also led to identifying short episodes of pulsation during thermonuclear bursts, in sources where a steady signal is not seen. The X-ray stage verifies the evolution that produces millisecond radio pulsars.Masses and radii of neutron stars are being determined by various techniques, constraining the equation of state of matter at nuclear densities. Accretion should lead to a range of neutron star masses. An early stage of superstrong magnetic field neutron stars is now known to produce X-ray and gamma-ray bursts in crust quakes and magnetic field reconnection releases of energy. Soft Gamma Repeaters, Anomolous X-ray Pulsars, and high magnetic field rotation-powered pulsars are all now called magnetars, because they have pulse periods indicating they are slowing down as they would with magnetic dipole radiation for a surface field above 5x1013 gauss. The accretion disk has been connected to the launching of radio jets from black holes, and even from neutron stars. Estimates of the angular momenta of black holes are being made from different approaches, modelling a high frequency oscillation that may be related to how close the inner part of the accretion disk is to the black hole, modelling the continua spectra of the X-ray emission, and modeling the emission of red-shifted iron that may be emitted from the accretion disk. These investigations require early discovery of the black hole transient with the All Sky Monitor on RXTE or other monitoring information, frequent extended observations, and coordinated observations with missions that give higher energy resolution, or radio and infrared information.
A radiative-transfer model for simulating microwave brightness temperatures over land surfaces is described. The model takes into account sensor viewing conditions (spacecraft altitude, viewing angle, frequency, and polarization) and atmospheric parameters over a soil surface characterized by its moisture, roughness, and temperature and covered with a layer of vegetation characterized by its temperature, water content, single scattering albedo, structure, and percent coverage. In order to reduce the influence of atmospheric and surface temperature effects, the brightness temperatures are expressed as polarization ratios that depend primarily on the soil moisture and roughness, canopy water content, and percentage of cover. The sensitivity of the polarization ratio to these parameters is investigated. Simulation of the temporal evolution of the microwave signal over semiarid areas in the African Sahel is presented and compared to actual satellite data from the SMMR instrument on Nimbus-7.
The origin of prompt emission from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) remains to be an open question. Correlated prompt optical and gamma-ray emission observed in a handful of GRBs strongly suggests a common emission region, but failure to adequately fit the broadband GRB spectrum prompted the hypothesis of different emission mechanisms for the low- and high-energy radiations. We demonstrate that our multi-component model for GRB -ray prompt emission provides an excellent fit to GRB 110205A from optical to gamma-ray energies. Our results show that the optical and highest gamma-ray emissions have the same spatial and spectral origin, which is different from the bulk of the X- and softest gamma-ray radiation. Finally, our accurate redshift estimate for GRB 110205A demonstrates promise for using GRBs as cosmological standard candles.
Direct emission from individual grains and multiple scattering between regolith particles are encompassed by the present model of particulate planetary surface thermal emission, whose randomly positioned spherical grains are large relative to the emission's wavelength scale. A Monte Carlo ray-tracing method is used to calculate the spectral and directional emissivity of the surface and the polarization of the emitted radiation, for 7-16 micron wavelengths. The effects of roughness at the scale of individual grains and scattering are separated to elucidate how each affects the emitted radiation. Implications of these results for planetary remote sensing are discussed.
Particulate emissions from burning fuels from sub-Saharan Africa is currently poorly characterized. With increasing population and industrialization, emissions are expected to grow. Optical methods for measuring light absorption in the ultraviolet (UV) and visible (vis) regions of the spectrum are crucial for understanding the optical properties of BB aerosols (Bond and Bergstrom, 2006; Lack and Cappa, 2010; Moschos et al., 2021). One such instrument is the dual-spot AE33 model aethalometer is a common filter-based instrument that can be used to measure aerosol absorption properties (Hansen et al., 1984). This instrument has many figures of merit; however, the method's limitations include potential biases from scattering within the filter material, multiple scattering effects of the particles, filter loading (i.e. particle shadowing), and the need for wavelength-specific correction factors (Cλ), which depend on accurate intercomparison with other in situ techniques (Bond et al., 1999; Collaud Coen et al., 2010). This work aims to: 1. Optically characterize BB aerosol generated from African fuel 2. Correct the aethalometer at multiple wavelengths 3. Parametrize these correction factors. 4. Combusting the same fuels with two difference tube furnace systems assess the general applicability of this flexible means of producing BB aerosol. This was accomplished by conducting laboratory studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and North Carolina A&T State University (NCA&T), where aethalometer measurements were compared to in situ optical measurements. Mass cross sections of BB aerosol from these under-studied fuels will be determined along with their wavelength dependence.
In the upper atmospheres of the Jovian and Terrestrial planets a dominant mechanism for energy transfer occurs through electron collisional processes with neutral species leading to UV radiation. In response to the need for accurate collision cross sections to model spectroscopic observations of planetary systems, JPL has measured in the laboratory emission cross sections and medium resolution spectra of H, H(sub 2), N(sub 2), SO(sub 2), and other important planetary gases.Voyager and International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spacecraft have established that band systems of H(sub 2) and N(sub 2) are the dominant UV molecular emissions in the solar system produced by electron impact. Applications of our data to models of Voyager, IUE, Galileo, and Hubble Space Telescope observations of the planets will be described.