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At least 487 records · Page 27

The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated latent heating in the water cycle is the dominant source in the heat budget that generates a net upward motion in convective regions, upper stratiform regions (above the freezing level), and a downward motion in the lower stratiform regions. The budgets reveal a cycle of water and energy resulted from radiation-dynamic-convection interactions that maintain equilibrium of the atmosphere.

Sui, C. H.↗

Comments on "The Sensitivity Study of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium in the Tropics with a Convective Resolving Model"

In general, there are two broad scientific objectives when using cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) to study tropical convection. The first one is to use them as a physics resolving models to understand the dynamic and microphysical processes associated with the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The second approach is to use the CRMs to improve the representation of moist processes and their interaction with radiation in large-scale models. In order to improve the credibility of the CRMs and achieve the above goals, CRMs using identical initial conditions and large-scale influences need to produce very similar results. Two CRMs produced different statistical equilibrium (SE) states even though both used the same initial thermodynamic and wind conditions. Sensitivity tests to identify the major physical processes that determine the SE states for the different CRM simulations were performed. Their results indicated that atmospheric horizontal wind is treated quite differently in these two CRMs. The model that had stronger surface winds and consequently larger latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean produced a warmer and more humid modeled thermodynamic SE state. In addition, the domain mean thermodynamic state is more unstable for those experiments that produced a warmer and more humid SE state. Their simulated wet (warm and humid) SE states are thermally more stable in the lower troposphere (from the surface to 4-5 km in altitude). The large-scale horizontal advective effects on temperature and water vapor mixing ratio are needed when using CRMs to perform long-term integrations to study convective feedback under specified large-scale environments. In addition, it is suggested that the dry and cold SE state simulated was caused by enhanced precipitation but not enough surface evaporation. We find some problems with the interpretation of these three phenomena.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Relationship Between the Sub-Micron Fraction (SMF) and Fine-Mode Fraction (FMF) in the Context of AERONET Retrievals

The sub-micron (SM) aerosol optical depth (AOD) is an optical separation based on the fraction of particles below a specified cutoff radius of the particle size distribution (PSD) at a given particle radius. It is fundamentally different from spectrally separated FM (fine-mode) AOD. We present a simple (AOD-normalized) SM fraction versus FM fraction (SMF vs. FMF) linear equation that explains the well-recognized empirical result of SMF generally being greater than the FMF. The AERONET inversion (AERinv) products (combined inputs of spectral AOD and sky radiance) and the spectral deconvolution algorithm (SDA) products (input of AOD spectra) enable, respectively, an empirical SMF vs. FMF comparison at similar (columnar) remote sensing scales across a variety of aerosol types. SMF (AERinv-derived) vs. FMF (SDA-derived) behavior is primarily dependent on the relative truncated portion (ε c ) of the coarse-mode (CM) AOD associated with the cutoff portion of the CM PSD and, to a second order, the cutoff FM PSD and FM AOD (ε f ). The SMF vs. FMF equation largely explains the SMF vs. FMF behavior of the AERinv vs. SDA products as a function of PSD cutoff radius (“inflection point”) across an ensemble of AERONET sites and aerosol types (urban-industrial, biomass burning, dust, maritime and a mixed class of Arctic aerosols). The overarching dynamic was that the linear SMF vs. FMF relation pivots clockwise about the approximate (SMF, FMF) singularity of (1, 1) in a “linearly inverse” fashion (slope and intercept of approximately 1−ε c and ε c ) with increasing cutoff radius. SMF vs. FMF slopes and intercepts derived from AERinv and SDA retrievals confirmed the general domination of ε c over ε f in controlling that dynamic. A more general conclusion is the apparent confirmation that the optical impact of truncating modal (whole) PSD features can be detected by an SMF vs. FMF analysis.

Norman T. O'Neill↗

Representative Phenomena of Cyclic Turbulent Combustion in High-Pressure Fuel Sprays

Abstract Cyclic variations in conventional diesel combustion engines can lead to large differences in engine out emissions even at steady operation. This study uses an optically accessible constant-pressure flow chamber to acquire fuel injections in quick succession to analyze mixing, auto-ignition, and combustion of diesel-surrogate n-heptane using multiple high-speed optical diagnostics. Prior studies have utilized fewer injections and/or they rely on analysis of ensemble average behavior. These approaches do not yield information on injection-to-injection variation or provide confidence in utilizing individual injection measurements for high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics(CFD) model validation. In this study, a large set of 500 injections is used to obtain global parameters including liquid length, vapor penetration length, ignition delay time, and lift-off length. Results for multiple injections are presented to illustrate large injection to injection variations. Potential sources for these variations are analyzed to conclude localized, small scale turbulence and rate of injection variations as the likely sources. Then, a statistical method based on z-scores is proposed and implemented to identify instantaneous injections that best represent the bulk data-set of jet boundaries measured independently by three different diagnostics. This synthesis of statistics-guided screening of data set and ensemble-average analysis offers higher confidence for CFD model validation relying upon both a representative single and average injection results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Understanding the Cascade: Removing GCM Biases Improves Dynamically Downscaled Climate Projections

Polarization surrounding bias correction (BC) in creating climate projections arises from its lack of physicality. Here, we perform and analyze 18 dynamical downscaling simulations (with and without BC) to better understand the physical impacts of BC, applied before downscaling, on regional climate output across the western United States. Without BC, downscaled precipitation is systematically and unrealistically wet biased compared to a hierarchy of observationally based datasets over the 1980–2014 period due to cascading mean–state Global Climate Model (GCM) biases: (a) overly strong lower–tropospheric lapse rates (5 K/km), (b) overly cold (2 K) tropospheric temperatures, and (c) anomalous mid–tropospheric cyclonic vorticity advection. With BC, downscaled precipitation (snow) biases are virtually eliminated (halved). Identified GCM biases are common to the broader Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. Physical effects of BC on the quality of the regionalized projections, pending an evaluation of BC's distortion of the downscaled climate response, may motivate its broader application by dynamical downscalers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Engineering long-lived entanglement through dissipation in quantum hybrid solid-state platforms

Spin squeezing, a form of many-body entanglement, is a crucial resource in quantum metrology and information processing. While experimentally viable protocols for generating stable spin squeezing have been proposed in quantum optics setups, there is growing interest in quantum hybrid solid-state systems as alternative platforms for both engineering and exploring many-body quantum phenomena. In this work, we propose a scheme to generate long-lived spin squeezing in an ensemble of solid-state qubits interacting with electromagnetic noise emitted by a squeezed solid-state bath. We identify the conditions under which quantum correlations within the bath can be transferred to the qubit array, driving it into an entangled state independently of its initial configuration. To assess the experimental feasibility of our approach, we analyze the dynamics of an array of solid-state spin defects coupled to a common ferromagnetic bath, which is driven into a non-equilibrium squeezed state through its interaction with a surface acoustic wave mode. Our results demonstrate that the ensemble can exhibit steady-state spin squeezing under suitable conditions, opening new pathways for the generation of robust many-body entanglement in solid-state spin ensembles.

NV centers↗

Flowfield dynamics in blunt fin-induced shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions

Fluctuating wall pressure measurements were made on centerline upstream of a blunt fin in a Much 5 turbulent boundary layer. By examining the ensemble average wall pressure distributions for different fixed shock foot positions, it was shown that local fluctuating wall pressure measurements are due to a distinct pressure distribution, P(i), which undergoes a stretching and flattening effect as its upstream boundary translates aperiodically between the upstream influence and separation lines. The locations of the maxima and minima in the centerline wall standard deviation distribution can be accurately predicted using this distribution, providing quantitative confirmation of the model. This model also explains the observed cross-correlations and ensemble average measurements within the interaction. Using the P(i) model, wall pressure signals from under the separated flow region were able to reproduce the position-time history of the separation shock foot. The negative time delay peak in the cross-correlation between the predicted and actual shock foot histories shows that the separated region fluctuations precede shock foot motion.

Brusniak, L.↗

Alchemical Free Energy Estimators and Molecular Dynamics Engines: Accuracy, Precision, and Reproducibility

The binding free energy between a ligand and its target protein is an essential quantity to know at all stages of the drug discovery pipeline. Assessing this value computationally can offer insight into where efforts should be focused in the pursuit of effective therapeutics to treat a myriad of diseases. In this work, we examine the computation of alchemical relative binding free energies with an eye for assessing reproducibility across popular molecular dynamics packages and free energy estimators. The focus of this work is on 54 ligand transformations from a diverse set of protein targets: MCL1, PTP1B, TYK2, CDK2, and thrombin. These targets are studied with three popular molecular dynamics packages: OpenMM, NAMD2, and NAMD3 alpha. Trajectories collected with these packages are used to compare relative binding free energies calculated with thermodynamic integration and free energy perturbation methods. The resulting binding free energies show good agreement between molecular dynamics packages with an average mean unsigned error between them of 0.50 kcal/mol. The correlation between packages is very good, with the lowest Spearman’s, Pearson’s and Kendall’s tau correlation coefficients being 0.92, 0.91, and 0.76, respectively. Agreement between thermodynamic integration and free energy perturbation is shown to be very good when using ensemble averaging.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitivity of Grass Fires Burning in Marginal Conditions to Atmospheric Turbulence

Abstract Atmospheric forcing and interactions between the fire and atmosphere are primary drivers of wildland fire behavior. The atmosphere is known to be a chaotic system that, although deterministic, is very sensitive to small perturbations to initial conditions. We assume that as a result of the tight coupling between fire and atmosphere; wildland fire behavior, in turn, should also be sensitive to perturbations in atmospheric initial conditions. Observations suggest that low intensity prescribed fire, in particular, is susceptible to small perturbations in the wind field, which can significantly alter fire spread. Here, we employ a computational fluid dynamics model of coupled fire‐atmosphere interactions to answer the question: How sensitive is fire behavior to small variations in atmospheric turbulence? We perform ensemble simulations of fires in homogenous grass fuels. The only difference between ensemble members is the state of the turbulent atmosphere provided to the model throughout the simulation. The atmospheric state is a function of the initial conditions applied at the start of the simulation and boundary conditions applied throughout the simulation. We find a wide range of outcomes, with area burned ranging from 2,212 to 11,236 m 2 (>400% change), driven primarily by sensitivity to initial conditions, with nonnegligible contributions from boundary condition variability during the initial 30 s of simulation. Our results highlight the need for ensemble simulations, especially when considering fire behavior in marginal burning conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI-driven multiscale simulations illuminate mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 spike dynamics

We develop a generalizable AI-driven workflow that leverages heterogeneous HPC resources to explore the time-dependent dynamics of molecular systems. We use this workflow to investigate the mechanisms of infectivity of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, the main viral infection machinery. Our workflow enables more efficient investigation of spike dynamics in a variety of complex environments, including within a complete SARS-CoV-2 viral envelope simulation, which contains 305 million atoms and shows strong scaling on ORNL Summit using NAMD. We present several novel scientific discoveries, including the elucidation of the spike’s full glycan shield, the role of spike glycans in modulating the infectivity of the virus, and the characterization of the flexible interactions between the spike and the human ACE2 receptor. We also demonstrate how AI can accelerate conformational sampling across different systems and pave the way for the future application of such methods to additional studies in SARS-CoV-2 and other molecular systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Merging Cluster Collaboration: A Panchromatic Atlas of Radio Relic Mergers

Golovich et al. (2017b) presents an optical imaging and spectroscopic survey of 29 radio relic merging galaxy clusters. In this paper, we study this survey to identify substructure and quantify the dynamics of the mergers. Using a combined photometric and spectroscopic approach, we identify the minimum number of substructures in each system to describe the galaxy populations and estimate the line of sight velocity difference between likely merging subclusters. Herein, we find that the line-of-sight velocity components of the mergers are typically small compared with the maximum three dimensional relative velocity (usually < 1000 km s -1 and often consistent with zero). This suggests that the merger axes of these systems are generally in or near the plane of the sky matching findings in magneto-hydrodynamical simulations. In 28 of the 29 systems we identify substructures in the galaxy population aligned with the radio relic(s) and presumed associated merger induced shock. From this ensemble, we identify eight systems to include in a \gold" sample that is prime for further observation, modeling, and simulation study. Additional papers will present weak lensing mass maps and dynamical modeling for each merging system, ultimately leading to new insight into a wide range of astrophysical phenomena at some of the largest scales in the universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flowfield dynamics in blunt fin-induced shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions

Fluctuating wall pressure measurements have been made on centerline upstream of a blunt fin in a Mach 5 turbulent boundary layer. By examining the ensemble averaged wall pressure distributions for different separation shock foot positions, it has been shown that local fluctuating wall pressure measurements are due to a distinct pressure distribution, Rho(sub i), which undergoes a stretching and flattening effect as its upstream boundary translates aperiodically between the upstream influence and separation lines. The locations of the maxima and minima in the wall pressure standard deviation can be accurately predicted using this distribution, providing quantitative confirmation of the model. This model also explains the observed cross-correlations and ensemble average measurements within the interaction. Using the Rho(sub i) model, wall pressure signals from under the separated flow region were used to reproduce the position-time history of the separation shock foot. Further, the negative time delay peak in the cross-correlation between the predicted and actual shock foot histories suggests that the separated region fluctuations precede shock foot motion. The unsteady behavior of the primary horseshoe vortex and its relation to the unsteady separation shock are described.

Dolling, David S.↗

From clutter to clarity: Emergent neural operators via questionnaire metrics

Real-world datasets in chemical engineering and bioengineering processes—such as those from catalytic reactors, multiphase flows, polymerization reactors, bioreactors, and clinical trials—can often be unlabeled or disorganized, rendering the training of existing supervised learning models ineffective at learning the underlying dynamics. To salvage these datasets for decision-making, we first seek to obtain clarity from the cluttered data. Here, we present a framework for developing “structural” generative models, discovering emergent equations, and constructing efficient emulators from scrambled datasets by integrating unsupervised organizational learning techniques (Questionnaires) with advanced deep learning architectures (Deep Hidden Physics Models and Deep Operator Networks). Our approach is demonstrated on two illustrative model systems: (a) a 1D advection–diffusion partial differential equation representing a winding underground pipe and (b) an ensemble of Stuart–Landau oscillators, an agent-based system of coupled ordinary differential equations. In both cases, we successfully reconstruct meaningful spatial, temporal, and parameter embeddings from scrambled data, enabling good predictions of system dynamics. As a result, we highlight the framework’s potential for broader applications, enabling data-driven system identification in fields with inherently disorganized or hidden parameter spaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Enabling machine learning-ready HPC ensembles with Merlin

With the growing complexity of computational and experimental facilities, many scientific researchers are turning to machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze large scale ensemble data. With complexities such as multi-component workflows, heterogeneous machine architectures, parallel file systems, and batch scheduling, care must be taken to facilitate this analysis in a high performance computing (HPC) environment. Here, we present Merlin, a workflow framework to enable large ML-friendly ensembles of scientific HPC simulations. By augmenting traditional HPC with distributed compute technologies, Merlin aims to lower the barrier for scientific subject matter experts to incorporate ML into their analysis. As a producer–consumer workflow model, Merlin enables multi-machine, cross-batch job, dynamically allocated yet persistent workflows capable of utilizing surge-compute resources. Key features of Merlin are a flexible HPC-centric interface, low per-task overhead, multi-tiered fault recovery, and a hierarchical sampling algorithm that allows for $\mathscr{O}$(N) task execution and $\mathscr{O}$(N ln N) task queuing to ensembles of millions of tasks. In addition to Merlin’s design, we test the algorithm’s performance in an HPC center and demonstrate the ability to enqueue 40 million simulations in 100 s, with a 30 millisecond per-task overhead that is independent of ensemble size. Finally, we describe some example applications that Merlin has enabled on leadership-class HPC resources, such as the ML-augmented optimization of nuclear fusion experiments and the calibration of infectious disease models to study the progression of and possible mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Polarons are probes of the dynamic nanoscale environments found in electrochemically doped π-conjugated polymers

Charge carriers (i.e., polarons) in electrochemically doped organic (semi)conductors are proposed to be regulated by several physicochemical features, including the chemical compositions and structures of the π-conjugated frameworks of the semiconductor building blocks, the chemistry of the electrolyte (considering both the salt and solvent), multiscale and time-dependent morphology variations across the material as a function of electrochemical processes, and assorted permutations of these and other factors. To address these hypotheses, we investigate the energetic, optoelectronic, chemical, and local structural properties of negative polarons (radical anions) as a function of electrochemical doping in the donor–acceptor, π-conjugated redox copolymer P(NDI2OD-T2), also referred to as N2200. A critical finding is that there is not just “one type” of polaron in electrochemically doped P(NDI2OD-T2). Rather, an ensemble of polarons exists, with the polarons having optoelectronic signatures that are defined by their nanoscale environments. Importantly, the polaron optical signatures serve as local probes for how the operando electrochemical environments are dynamically working in concert to facilitate charge transport. Collectively, the distinctive and extensive integration of theory and measurement science presented here establishes a baseline for the roles that semiconductor and electrolyte chemistries and dynamic structural features have on polarons in electrochemically doped organic semiconductors and how these factors influence the energetics and rates of polaron transport.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Thermofield Theory for Finite-Temperature Electronic Structure

Wave function methods have offered a robust, systematically improvable means to study ground-state properties in quantum many-body systems. Theories like coupled cluster and their derivatives provide highly accurate approximations to the energy landscape at a reasonable computational cost. Analogues of such methods to study thermal properties, though highly desirable, have been lacking because evaluating thermal properties involve a trace over the entire Hilbert space, which is a formidable task. Besides, excited-state theories are generally not as well studied as ground-state ones. In this mini-review, we present an overview of a finite-temperature wave function formalism based on thermofield dynamics to overcome these difficulties. Thermofield dynamics allows us to map the equilibrium thermal density matrix to a pure state, i.e., a single wave function, albeit in an expanded Hilbert space. Ensemble averages become expectation values over this so-called thermal state. Around this thermal state, we have developed a procedure to generalize ground-state wave function theories to finite temperatures. As explicit examples, we highlight formulations of mean-field, configuration interaction, and coupled cluster theories for thermal properties of Fermions in the grand-canonical ensemble. To assess the quality of these approximations, we also show benchmark studies for the one-dimensional Hubbard model, while comparing against exact results. We will see that the thermal methods perform similarly to their ground-state counterparts, while merely adding a prefactor to the asymptotic computational cost. Furthermore, they also inherit all the properties, good or bad, from the ground-state methods, signifying the robustness of our formalism and the scope for future development.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗