Results for “error analysis” — Page 27

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Analysis of Mode Hopping Impacts on OFDR Sensing Performance

This article examines the impacts of mode hopping on the sensing performance of optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) and explores the potential for developing economical OFDR interrogators employing low-cost distributed feedback (DFB) lasers. By conducting numerical simulations, this study reveals that mode hopping has minimal effects on distance sensing measurements in free space due to the limited duration of beat interference signal at the incorrect frequency within the coherence length. Additionally, the simulations indicate that mode hopping only slightly affects the distributed strain sensing of OFDR, resulting in an error range of less than ±1µε when 100µε is applied to the sensing fiber. These findings highlight the potential of using low-cost DFB lasers with a 1-nm wavelength sweep range and a 1-MHz linewidth as tunable laser sources in OFDR while maintaining reliable and accurate sensing performance.

Wang, Qirui (ORCID:0000000336532984)↗

DOE OSTI2025

HOLISTIC ENERGY EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF ELECTRIFIED OFF-HIGHWAY MATERIAL HANDLER: FROM DRIVE CYCLE CHARACTERIZATION TO POWERTRAIN, HYDRAULIC, AND THERMAL SYSTEM PERFORMANCE

Three complexities surrounding the operation and testing of hybrid electric, heavy-duty nonroad machines have been addressed experimentally and using 1D simulation. Their resolutions have been intertwined with the development of a prototype machine that was proven to reduce fuel consumption in excess of 20%. A real-world drive cycle that leveraged hydraulic cylinder position was developed and utilized to ensure accurate reproduction of hydraulic work between the baseline and hybrid machines, while simultaneously maintaining less than 5% RMS error in position for main load handling functions. The newly developed, machine-specific drive cycle also contributed towards making equivalent comparisons in energy consumption between machine types through composite performance metrics that were extrapolated over a typical shift duration. Lastly, this work addressed thermal management energy consumption, a topic of increasing popularity when discussing electrified vehicles, by proposing a 1.4% energy savings through special mechanization and control of cooling system components.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century

Inconsistencies in the calculation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms of the global carbon cycle are investigated. The two terms—the direct anthropogenic flux (caused by direct human disturbance in anthromes, currently a carbon source to the atmosphere) and the indirect anthropogenic flux (caused indirectly by human activities that lead to global change and affecting all biomes, currently an atmospheric carbon sink)—are typically calculated independently, resulting in inconsistent underlying assumptions. We harmonize the estimation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms by incorporating previous estimates of these inconsistencies. We recalculate the global carbon budget (GCB) and apply change-point analysis to the cumulative budget imbalance. Cumulative over 1850–2018 (1959–2018), harmonization results in a 13% lesser (4% greater) land use source from anthromes and a 20% (23%) lesser land sink. This recalculation yields a greater non-closure of the GCB, indicating a missing carbon sink averaging 0.65 Pg C year -1 since the early 20th century. The imbalance likely results from a combination of method discontinuity and structural errors in the assessment of the direct anthropogenic land use flux, greater ocean carbon uptake, structural errors in land models, and in how these land terms are quantified for the budget. We caution against overconfidence in considering the GCB a solved problem and recommend further study of methodological discontinuities in budget terms. We strongly recommend studies that quantify the direct and indirect anthropogenic land fluxes simultaneously to ensure consistency, with a deeper understanding of human disturbance and legacy effects in anthromes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Association Kinetics for Perfluorinated n -Alkyl Radicals

Radical-radical reaction channels are important in the pyrolysis and oxidation chemistry of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). In particular, unimolecular dissociation reactions within unbranched n-perfluoroalkyl chains, and their corresponding reverse barrierless association reactions, are expected to be significant contributors to the gas-phase thermal decomposition of families of species such as perfluorinated carboxylic acids and perfluorinated sulfonic acids. Unfortunately, experimental data for these reactions are scarce and uncertain. Furthermore, obtaining reliable theoretical predictions for such reactions is a laborious and computationally intensive task. Here, in this work, the chemical kinetics of the various association/decomposition reactions producing/decomposing the C 2 -C 4 series of unbranched n-perfluoroalkanes (C 2 F 6 , C 3 F 8 , and C 4 F 10 ) are examined using state-of-the-art ab initio transition-state-theory-based master-equation calculations. The variable-reaction-coordinate transition-state theory (VRC-TST) formalism is employed in computing the microcanonical and canonical rates for the association reactions. Reaction thermochemistry is obtained via composite quantum chemistry calculations and the laddering of error-canceling reaction schemes via a connectivity-based hierarchy approach employing ANL1/ANL0-style reference energies. Lennard-Jones collision model parameters for the considered systems were estimated by a direct dynamics approach, and collisional energy transfer parameters were obtained from analogies to systems of similar size and heavy-atom connectivity. A one-dimensional master equation approach was used to convert the microcanonical rate coefficients from the VRC-TST analysis into temperature- and pressure-dependent rate constants for the association reactions and the reverse dissociation reactions. The data are reported in standardized formats for usage in comprehensive chemical kinetic models for PFAS thermal destruction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

One Million Open-source Cislunar Orbits

Cislunar space, encompassing the region from geosynchronous orbit to beyond the Moon, is poised to become a cornerstone for future exploration, scientific discovery, and national security. Missions in this region, spanning durations from weeks to decades, require robust infrastructure and reliable transit capabilities. The complex gravitational influences of the Moon, Sun, and planets, along with thermal radiation from Earth and the Sun, lead to significant trajectory deviations, resulting in kilometer-scale errors within days. Leveraging the high-performance computing resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), we have simulated one million high-fidelity cislunar trajectories, now publicly available via LLNL’s Green Data Oasis and the Unified Data Library. Generated using the open-source Space Situational Awareness Python package, these trajectories match the precision of commercial tools such as AGI’s Systems Tool Kit and NASA’s General Mission Analysis Tool. This data set is a valuable resource for reference, statistical analysis of cislunar orbit populations, and training machine learning models for rapid orbit classification with minimal observational input. Preliminary analysis reveals stable bands in Keplerian element space, particularly around five geosynchronous radii across a range of inclinations and eccentricities. Beyond this threshold, the Moon’s influence disrupts most unassisted orbits, though co-orbiting L4/L5 Lunar Trojans persist throughout the six-year simulation.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2024

The use of digital thread for reconstruction of local fiber orientation in a compression molded pin bracket via deep learning

A deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) was used for microstructure reconstruction using artificial intelligence (MR-AI) by predicting local average fiber orientation distributions (FOD) in a 3D prepreg platelet molded composite (PPMC) pin bracket. To train the MR-AI model, surface strain fields from residual stresses simulated in PPMC plates were used as the input to the DCNN. A training dataset included PPMC plates with various degrees of global fiber alignment, based on the information obtained from high-fidelity flow simulation of a pin bracket. Further, the MR-AI model was then deployed to analyze FOD in the 3D pin bracket by conducting thermo-elastic residual stress analysis. Initially, the MR-AI model was established entirely on the synthetic simulation data. Then, a μCT scan of a physically molded pin bracket was used to create a finite element model that provided data for additional validation of the DCNN model. For the μCT scan finite element pin bracket the MR-AI model predicted the distribution of fiber orientation tensor components with MAE of 0.10 indicating a global prediction error of 10%. For the flow simulated pin bracket, the MR-AI model predicted the distribution of fiber orientation tensor components with a global prediction error of 11%. The MR-AI model showed the ability to predict regions of varying alignment in the base and flange of the pin bracket. The proposed MR-AI methodology allows for rapid prediction of FOD in geometrically complex parts and offers a promising path to detecting unique fiber orientation states in molded components.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Applying Machine Learning and Bayesian Inference to Identify and Locate Moving Anthropogenic Sources Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) systems, which use existing telecommunication fibers, offer high‐resolution capabilities ideal for recording anthropogenic sources. However, the complexity of urban environments and the large amount of data recorded by DAS require automated methods to efficiently detect and categorize anthropogenic sources. Here, we evaluate how well three machine learning models (k‐nearest neighbor [k‐NN], convolutional neural networks, and recurrent‐convolutional neural networks) can identify various anthropogenic sources recorded by DAS. Our findings reveal that both k‐NN and neural network methods perform well in high signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR) settings. However, their accuracy decreases at SNRs <4. We also use Kalman filtering, a form of Bayesian inference, on backprojected locations of these sources to recover locations that generally fall within standard smartphone Global Positioning System errors. By combining machine learning and Kalman filter results, we calculate a multidimensional model of moving anthropogenic sources. These results demonstrate the potential of DAS data in urban seismology for accurately identifying and locating such sources. Depending on the research objectives, these sources can be further studied or filtered out to improve the quality of seismic data for earthquake studies. Such methods provide a valuable tool for urban seismology and seismic hazard analysis.

Luckie, Thomas William [Sandia National Laboratori↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmological Constraints from Combining Photometric Galaxy Surveys and Gravitational Wave Observatories

Spatial variations in survey properties due to selection effects generate substantial systematic errors in large-scale structure measurements in optical galaxy surveys on very large scales. On such scales, the statistical sensitivity of optical surveys is also limited by their finite sky coverage. By contrast, gravitational wave (GW) sources appear to be relatively free of these issues, provided the angular sensitivity of GW experiments can be accurately characterized. We quantify the expected cosmological information gain from combining the forecast LSST 3$\times$2pt analysis (combination of three 2-point correlations of galaxy density and weak lensing shear fields) with the large-scale auto-correlation of GW sources from proposed next-generation GW experiments. We find that in $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM models, there is no significant improvement in cosmological constraints from combining GW with LSST 3$\times$2pt over LSST alone, due to the large shot noise for the former; however, this combination does enable a $\sim6\%$ constraint on the linear galaxy bias of GW sources. More interestingly, the optical-GW data combination provides tight constraints on models with primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), due to the predicted scale-dependent bias in PNG models on large scales. Assuming that the largest angular scales that LSST will probe are comparable to those in Stage III surveys ($\ell_{\rm min}\sim50$), the inclusion of next-generation GW measurements could improve constraints on the PNG parameter $f_{\rm NL}$ by up to a factor of $\simeq6.6$ compared to LSST alone, yielding $\sigma(f_{\rm NL})=8.5$. These results assume the expected capability of a network of Einstein Telescope-like GW observatories, with a detection rate of $10^6$ events/year. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to different assumptions about future GW detectors as well as different LSST analysis choices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Heliostat Consortium: Gap Analysis on State of the Art in Wind Load Design

Wind loads are a major driver of heliostat cost. Standardized methods and tools are needed for a more detailed understanding of the static and dynamic loads of a heliostat design. This will enable cost reduction of wind-dependent heliostats to avoid unnecessarily conservative heliostat designs and increase field efficiency and reliability to reduce the risk of component failures due to high-wind events. Gaps related to wind load include lack of site characterization for wind measurements, insufficient critical load cases for heliostat design, insufficient understanding of turbulence impacts on heliostat tracking error, lack of knowledge on wind load under various heliostat array configurations, and underexplored heliostat field wind-load reduction and operating strategies. Recommended pathway forward is to develop wind load and site characterization guidelines for heliostat design and develop heliostat field wind-load models with optical performance impacts.

aerodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Partial wave analysis of 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝐽/𝜓 and cross section measurement of 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 ± ⁢𝑍 𝑐 ⁢(3900) ∓ from 4.1271 to 4.3583 GeV

Based on 12.0 fb −1 of 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − collision data samples collected by the BESIII detector at center-of-mass energies from 4.1271 to 4.3583 GeV, a partial wave analysis is performed for the process 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝐽/𝜓. The cross sections for the subprocesses 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 + ⁢𝑍 𝑐 ⁢(3900) − + c.c. → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝐽/𝜓, 𝑓 0 ⁡(980)⁢(→ 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − )⁢𝐽/𝜓, and (𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ) S−wave⁢ 𝐽/𝜓 are measured for the first time. The mass and width of the 𝑍 𝑐 ⁢(3900) ± are determined to be 3884.6 ± 0.7 ± 3.3 MeV/𝑐 2 and 37.2 ± 1.3 ± 6.6 MeV, respectively. The first errors are statistical and the second systematic. The final state (𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ) S−wave ⁢𝐽/𝜓 dominates the process 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝐽/𝜓. By analyzing the cross sections of 𝜋 ±⁢ 𝑍 𝑐 ⁢(3900) ∓ and 𝑓 0 ⁡(980)⁢𝐽/𝜓, 𝑌⁡(4220) has been observed. Its mass and width are determined to be 4225.7 ± 4.1 ± 3.4 MeV/𝑐 2 and 57.5 ± 9.4 ± 12.1 MeV, respectively.

lepton colliders↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simplification of the Grid Model and its Impact on the Analysis of Electrical Power Systems

Here, this paper analyzes the impact of the use of Kron reduction on the state variables of a three-phase electrical system, even when it does not meet the necessary conditions for its application. Reduction is applied to a power line model to eliminate the equation corresponding to the neutral conductor of the line. The ATP program is used to model and simulate the behavior of an electrical system considering different degrees of disequilibrium as a reference for the comparison of results. The results show that under certain conditions of disequilibrium the Kron reduction can lead to significant errors in the state variables of the system.

Electric Power Systems↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multibody for Everybody (M4E): A Symbolic Dynamics Modeling Tool with Applications in Simulation, Control, and Optimization

Developing the analytical model of a multibody system is often the initial step in control and optimization. The analytical model (equations of motion) describes a system’s time evolution under specified forcing conditions. Although developing these equations is easy for simple systems, this process becomes more complex for systems composed of multiple bodies. Deriving equations of motion for complex multibody systems requires specialized expertise in multibody dynamics, is time-consuming, and is susceptible to error. To address this issue, this paper presents an open-source, easy-to-use, systematic framework to derive symbolic equations of motion in both Python and MATLAB using the joint coordinate formulation. This formulation results in a set of ordinary differential equations that use the minimum set of coordinates needed to model a system. The symbolic representation provides better insight into the influence of design parameters on system performance, facilitates sensitivity analysis and parameter studies, and supports direct implementation of control and optimization routines. The tool enables numerical simulation for specified parameter sets, is modular for straightforward integration with other tools and libraries, and allows incorporation of hydrodynamics, mooring, and other external forces. The result is a reproducible, extensible pipeline for modeling, simulation, and design of complex multibody systems. The proposed tool is versatile and can be applied to domains such as robotics, control, and design. In addition, we integrated external libraries that provide capabilities for modeling offshore systems such as underwater robots and marine energy converters.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Testing of a Line Driver With Configurable Pre-Emphasis on Lossy Transmission Lines

Rare-event physics experiments such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) or the next Enriched Xenon Observatory (nEXO) experiment search for rare, low-energy events, detected by sensitive detectors immersed in a cryogenic noble liquid (e.g., liquid argon or xenon). Readout electronics used within such detectors must consume minimal power while operating reliably in cryogenic environments. Furthermore, in the case of nEXO, maximizing the radiopurity of the environment is vital to minimize background noise, thus placing strict limits on the volume of dielectric materials, leading to high-loss data cables spanning distances up to 12 m. Such cables cause high attenuation and intersymbol interference (ISI), resulting in a high bit-error rate (BER). These issues were addressed by developing an integrated line driver with configurable pre-emphasis in a 65-nm CMOS process. The pre-emphasis parameters can be programmed to minimize BER for specific cables and data rates under power constraints. Here, the driver was tested at both room and cryogenic temperatures. In both cases, the output BER was found to be strongly correlated with the pre-emphasis settings. Furthermore, analysis and simulation showed that adapting the pre-emphasis settings based on the incoming bit sequence can further improve performance with minimal changes to the current solution.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI DR2 Ly$\alpha$ BAO analysis using synthetic datasets

The second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), containing data from the first three years of observations, doubles the number of Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly$\alpha$) forest spectra in DR1 and it provides the largest dataset of its kind. To ensure a robust validation of the Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) analysis using Ly$\alpha$ forests, we have made significant updates compared to DR1 to both the mocks and the analysis framework used in the validation. In particular, we present CoLoRe-QL, a new set of Ly$\alpha$ mocks that use a quasi-linear input power spectrum to incorporate the non-linear broadening of the BAO peak. We have also increased the number of realisations used in the validation to 400, compared to the 150 realisations used in DR1. Finally, we present a detailed study of the impact of quasar redshift errors on the BAO measurement, and we compare different strategies to mask Damped Lyman-$\alpha$ Absorbers (DLAs) in our spectra. The BAO measurement from the Ly$\alpha$ dataset of DESI DR2 is presented in a companion publication.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗