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NASA NTRS1983

Nd:YAG holographic interferometer for aerodynamic research

A holographic interferometer system has been installed in the NASA Ames 2- by 2-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. The system incorporates a modern 10 pps, Nd:YAG pulsed laser which provides reliable operation and is easy to align. The spatial filtering requirements of the unstable resonator beam are described, as well as the integration of the system into the existing schlieren system. A two-plate holographic interferometer is used to reconstruct flow field data. For static wind tunnel models, the single exposure holograms are recorded in the usual manner; however, for dynamic models such as oscillating airfoils, synchronous laser hologram recording is used.

Craig, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Solar activity predictions using the data assimilation approach have demonstrated great potential to build reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to a non-linear dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. These developments assume an empirical relationship between the mean toroidal magnetic field flux and the sunspot number. Estimated from the sunspot number series, variations of the toroidal field have been used to assimilate the data into the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin (PKR) dynamo model by applying the EnKF method. The dynamo model describes the evolution of the toroidal and poloidal components of the magnetic field and the magnetic helicity. Full-disk magnetograms provide more accurate and complete input data by constraining both the toroidal and poloidal global field components, but these data are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of limited time series observations on the accuracy of solar activity predictions. We present EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Applying Motion Constraints Based on Test Data

MSC ADAMS is a simulation software that is used to analyze multibody dynamics. Using user subroutines, it is possible to apply motion constraints to the rigid bodies so that they match the motion profile collected from test data. This presentation describes the process of taking test data and passing it to ADAMS using user subroutines, and uses the Morpheus free-flight 4 test as an example of motion data used for this purpose. Morpheus is the name of a prototype lander vehicle built by NASA that serves as a test bed for various experimental technologies (see backup slides for details) MSC.ADAMS"TM" is used to play back telemetry data (vehicle orientation and position) from each test as the inputs to a 6-DoF general motion constraint (details in backup slides) The MSC.ADAMS"TM" playback simulations allow engineers to examine and analyze flight trajectory as well as observe vehicle motion from any angle and at any playback speed. This facilitates the development of robust and stable control algorithms, increasing reliability and reducing development costs of this developmental engine The simulation also incorporates a 3D model of the artificial hazard field, allowing engineers to visualize and measure performance of the developmental autonomous landing and hazard avoidance technology ADAMS is a multibody dynamics solver. It uses forces, constraints, and mass properties to numerically integrate equations of motion. The ADAMS solver will ask the motion subroutine for position, velocity, and acceleration values at various time steps. Those values must be continuous over the whole time domain. Each degree of freedom in the telemetry data can be examined separately; however, linear interpolation of the telemetry data is invalid, since there will be discontinuities in velocity and acceleration.

Burlone, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Failure Prognostic Model for PV Inverter Using Field Measurements

Here, this study presents a novel approach for the precise monitoring and prognosis of photovoltaic (PV) inverter status, which is crucial for the proactive maintenance of PV systems. It addresses the gaps in traditional model-based methods, which tend to neglect the overall reliability of inverters, and the limitations of data-driven approaches that largely depend on simulated data. This research presents a robust solution applicable to real-world scenarios. The proposed data-driven model for PV inverter failure prognosis employs actual inverter measurements, integrating various operational and weather-related factors based on domain knowledge. This approach effectively represents inverter stressors and operational status. Utilizing an Enhanced Siamese Convolutional Neural Network (ESCNN), the model merges operational data with domain knowledge features, redefining the prognosis challenge as a classification task. Furthermore, the paper discusses an ESCNN-based real-time inverter failure monitoring method developed on the well-trained model. The proposed models are rigorously trained and tested with real inverter data and a novel filtering method is included to address accidental failures in practical scenarios. The results validate the model's efficacy, and the directions for future research are also outlined.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Phase 3 Gearbox 2 Test Report

Many gearboxes in wind turbines have not been achieving their expected design life [1]; they do, however, commonly meet or exceed the design criteria specified in current standards in the gear, bearing, and wind turbine industry as well as third-party certification criteria. The cost of gearbox replacements and rebuilds, as well as the downtime associated with these failures, has elevated the cost of wind energy. In 2006, the U.S. Department of Energy established the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Gearbox Reliability Collaborative (GRC). Its key goal is to understand the root causes of premature gearbox failures and improve their reliability [2]. The GRC is examining a hypothesis that the gap between design-estimated and actual wind turbine gearbox reliability is caused by underestimation of loads, inaccurate design tools, the absence of critical elements in the design process, or insufficient testing. This test report describes the recent tests of GRC gearbox (GB) 2 in the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) dynamometer and documents any modifications to the original test plan [3]. In this manner, it serves as a guide for interpreting the publicly released data sets with brief analyses to illustrate the data. Specific objectives of the test were to assess the effect of dynamic nontorque load (NTL) on the planetary section, generator misalignment on the highspeed shaft (HSS), and field representative conditions on the gearbox in general. Detailed analysis of those test objectives will be presented in subsequent publications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A systematic analytical framework for multi-source municipal solid waste characterization for energy recovery

Advancing municipal solid waste (MSW) management from disposal-oriented practices toward circular, value-driven systems requires standardized methodologies capable of identifying material composition and resource recoverable potential at the point of generation. Despite extensive research, MSW characterization remains fragmented due to inconsistences in sampling methodologies, waste sorting categories, and temporal coverage across previous studies which limit cross-site comparability, reproducibility, and constrain the reliable evaluation of potential resource recovery pathways. This lack of consistency has hindered the development of a unified framework for MSW characterization and resource assessment. This study introduces a standardized, field-validated protocol for MSW sampling and composition analysis that ensures consistent, traceable data across diverse waste sources. The protocol integrates randomized spatial sampling, systematic material sorting, and controlled subsampling for multi-site and multi-season field campaigns. Validation included MSW collection from residential, grocery, restaurant, and school MSW streams across five U.S. states, including Maryland, Idaho, Virginia, Ohio, and Mississippi, to demonstrate the protocol’s ability to identify source-based composition patterns relevant to resource recovery applications. Grocery and restaurant streams were dominated by food waste and high-moisture organics, while school waste contained higher paper content and residential waste showed greater heterogeneity. Aggregation into energy-relevant fractions highlighted practical recovery pathways via anaerobic digestion or gasification, supporting data-driven planning, policy, and circular economy strategies for sustainable waste management across waste sources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Data-Driven User-Defined Model for Inverter-based and Conventional Power Plants

Recent events in Odessa [1], [2] have shed light on the complexities of integrating large Inverter-Based Resource (IBR) plants with the transmission system, prompting NERC to stress continuous performance monitoring by transmission operators. Challenges such as plant control updates, IBR model revisions, Phase-locked loop loss of synchronism, and protection events have been identified, underscoring the need for enhanced monitoring protocols by regulatory bodies. The recent FERC 901 order underscores the importance of accurate data exchange regarding IBRs for reliability studies. However, limited access to IBR plant-related data hampers effective decision-making for transmission operators (TOP). This paper proposes a method for constructing data-driven User-Defined dynamic Models (UDM) for power plants for validating multiple-event data using field measurements from interconnection bus locations. The problem is formulated as a power plant model identification problem and a multi-task learning approach under partial input observability assumptions is proposed in this work. This approach aims to predict aggregated responses of conventional and IBR power plants during various dynamic physical events which is useful for planning studies under diverse disturbance conditions. Ultimately, this methodology emphasizes the importance of plant visibility to operators in addressing power system challenges, facilitating improved planning and operational studies.

Mahapatra, Kaveri [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis

The accurate quantification of the performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems is critical for project economics. Following the current research activities in the photovoltaic performance and reliability field, this work presents a comparative assessment between common change point methods for performance loss rate estimation of fielded photovoltaic installations. An extensive testing campaign was thus performed to evaluate time series analysis approaches for performance loss rate evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Historical electrical data from eleven photovoltaic systems installed in Nicosia, Cyprus, and the locations’ meteorological measurements over a period of 8 years were used for this investigation. The application of change point detection algorithms on the constructed monthly photovoltaic performance ratio series revealed that the obtained trend might not always be linear. Specifically, thin film photovoltaic systems showed nonlinear behavior, while nonlinearities were also detected for some crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. When applying several change point techniques, different numbers and locations of changes were detected, resulting in different performance loss rate values (varying by up to 0.85%/year even for the same number of change points). The results highlighted the importance of the application of nonlinear techniques and the need to extract a robust nonlinear model for detecting significant changes in time series data and estimating accurately the performance loss rate of photovoltaic installations.

photovoltaics↗

NASA NTRS1976

A vector autopilot system

Current technology has evolved low cost, highly reliable solid state vector magnetometers with excellent angular resolution. This paper discusses the role of a three-axis magnetometer as a new instrument for aircraft attitude determination. Using flight data acquired by an instrumented aircraft, attitude is calculated using the earth's magnetic field vector and compared to measured attitudes. The magnetic field alone is not adequate to resolve all attitude variations and the need for a second reference angle or vector is discussed. A system combining the functions of heading determination and attitude measurement is presented to show that both functions can be implemented with essentially the same component count required to measure heading alone. It is concluded that with the correlation achieved in calculated and measured attitude there is a potential application of vector magnetometry in attitude measurement systems.

Pietila, R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Geopotential models of the Earth from satellite tracking, altimeter and surface gravity observations: GEM-T3 and GEM-T3S

Improved models of the Earth's gravitational field have been developed from conventional tracking data and from a combination of satellite tracking, satellite altimeter and surface gravimetric data. This combination model represents a significant improvement in the modeling of the gravity field at half-wavelengths of 300 km and longer. Both models are complete to degree and order 50. The Goddard Earth Model-T3 (GEM-T3) provides more accurate computation of satellite orbital effects as well as giving superior geoidal representation from that achieved in any previous GEM. A description of the models, their development and an assessment of their accuracy is presented. The GEM-T3 model used altimeter data from previous satellite missions in estimating the orbits, geoid, and dynamic height fields. Other satellite tracking data are largely the same as was used to develop GEM-T2, but contain certain important improvements in data treatment and expanded laser tracking coverage. Over 1300 arcs of tracking data from 31 different satellites have been used in the solution. Reliable estimates of the model uncertainties via error calibration and optimal data weighting techniques are discussed.

Lerch, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Combustion Sensors: Gas Turbine Applications

This report documents efforts to survey the current research directions in sensor technology for gas turbine systems. The work is driven by the current and future requirements on system performance and optimization. Accurate real time measurements of velocities, pressure, temperatures, and species concentrations will be required for objectives such as combustion instability attenuation, pollutant reduction, engine health management, exhaust profile control via active control, etc. Changing combustor conditions - engine aging, flow path slagging, or rapid maneuvering - will require adaptive responses; the effectiveness of such will be only as good as the dynamic information available for processing. All of these issues point toward the importance of continued sensor development. For adequate control of the combustion process, sensor data must include information about the above mentioned quantities along with equivalence ratios and radical concentrations, and also include both temporal and spatial velocity resolution. Ultimately these devices must transfer from the laboratory to field installations, and thus must become low weight and cost, reliable and maintainable. A primary conclusion from this study is that the optics-based sensor science will be the primary diagnostic in future gas turbine technologies.

Human, Mel↗

NASA NTRS2015

Principal Component Analysis of Thermographic Data

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been shown effective for reducing thermographic NDE data. While a reliable technique for enhancing the visibility of defects in thermal data, PCA can be computationally intense and time consuming when applied to the large data sets typical in thermography. Additionally, PCA can experience problems when very large defects are present (defects that dominate the field-of-view), since the calculation of the eigenvectors is now governed by the presence of the defect, not the "good" material. To increase the processing speed and to minimize the negative effects of large defects, an alternative method of PCA is being pursued where a fixed set of eigenvectors, generated from an analytic model of the thermal response of the material under examination, is used to process the thermal data from composite materials. This method has been applied for characterization of flaws.

Winfree, William P.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Transverse charge and magnetization densities: Improved chiral predictions down to b=1 fms

The transverse charge and magnetization densities provide insight into the nucleon’s inner structure. In the periphery, the isovector components are clearly dominant, and can be computed in a model-independent way by means of a combination of chiral effective field theory (cEFT) and dispersion analysis. With a novel N=D method, we incorporate the pion electromagnetic formfactor data into the cEFT calculation, thus taking into account the pion-rescattering effects and r-meson pole. As a consequence, we are able to reliably compute the densities down to distances b1 fm, therefore achieving a dramatic improvement of the results compared to traditional cEFT calculations, while remaining predictive and having controlled uncertainties.

Alarcon, Jose Manuel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Temporal Predictive Modelling of Sorghum Biomass Using UAV-Based Hyperspectral and LiDAR Data

High-throughput phenotyping using high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution remote sensing (RS) data has become a critical part of the plant breeding chain focused on reducing the time and cost of the selection process for the “best” genotypes with respect to the trait(s) of interest. In this paper, the potential of accurate and reliable sorghum biomass prediction using visible and near infrared (VNIR) and short-wave infrared (SWIR) hyperspectral data as well as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired by sensors mounted on UAV platforms is investigated. Predictive models are developed using classical regression-based machine learning methods for nine experiments conducted during the 2017 and 2018 growing seasons at the Agronomy Center for Research and Education (ACRE) at Purdue University, Indiana, USA. The impact of the regression method, data source, timing of RS and field-based biomass reference data acquisition, and the number of samples on the prediction results are investigated. R2 values for end-of-season biomass ranged from 0.64 to 0.89 for different experiments when features from all the data sources were included. Geometry-based features derived from the LiDAR point cloud to characterize plant structure and chemistry-based features extracted from hyperspectral data provided the most accurate predictions. Evaluation of the impact of the time of data acquisition during the growing season on the prediction results indicated that although the most accurate and reliable predictions of final biomass were achieved using remotely sensed data from mid-season to end-of-season, predictions in mid-season provided adequate results to differentiate between promising varieties for selection. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the accuracies of the predictive models showed that both the data source and regression method are important factors for a reliable prediction; however, the data source was more important with 69% significance, versus 28% significance for the regression method.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

High concentrations of ice: Investigations using polarimetric radar observations combined with in situ measurements and cloud modeling (Final Report)

This DOE-funded joint project had the over-arching goal of understanding the reasons for observed size distributions of ice particles in cold clouds. Its approach involves the use of cloud models and field observations by radar and aircraft of real storms. The project addresses three major research objectives: (1) Utilize a novel polarimetric radar technique to retrieve size distributions and amounts of ice from radar data collected during the previous DOE ARM field campaigns; (2) Evaluate the results of ice microphysical retrievals using available in situ aircraft measurements and other remote sensors (e.g., vertically pointing cloud radars and wind profilers); (3) Improve the treatment of microphysical processes leading to cloud glaciation and ice multiplication in numerical cloud models. The study was performed by three research organizations: University of Oklahoma, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, and Lund University, Sweden. The Israel and Swedish partners were funded by the sub-awards from the University of Oklahoma. Cloud modeling studies have been performed by the research teams at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJ) and Lund University to identify the origins of high concentrations of cloud ice in areas of high ice water content (HIWC). The Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM) with full spectral bin microphysics and the Lund University aerosol-cloud (AC) model with a hybrid bin / bulk microphysics scheme complementing HUCM were utilized for simulations. Both research teams had particular focus on secondary ice production (SIP) as one of the possible sources of enhanced ice concentration. The HUJ group suggested a novel concept of ice multiplication during droplet freezing. It is assumed that splintering and droplet fragmentation during droplet freezing takes place because of dendritic growth within a supercooled drop. The resulting simulations of SIP generated small ice in concentrations exceeding hundreds per liter similar to what was observed in the HIWC regions of the tropical storms. The Lund team explored the SIP mechanisms such as breakup of ice particles due to ice-ice collisions and ice sublimation that are expected to dominate the continental storms. They also quantified the impact of homogeneous nucleation of cloud droplets on the total number concentration of ice at very low temperatures near the tops of the clouds. Additionally, the Lund AC model is able to simulate the effect of aerosols of various types (including biological) on the cloud life cycle and the corresponding ice production. The HUCM / AC model was used to simulate one of the “golden” cases of the DOE MC3E campaign on 20 May 2011. The model output was converted into the fields of polarimetric radar variables using the polarimetric radar forward operator developed at the University of Oklahoma and compared with radar observations and in situ microphysical measurements onboard research aircraft. It was demonstrated that specific differential phase KDP is the best radar parameter to identify the HIWC areas and quantify the corresponding ice parameters. For the first time, the shape of the vertical profile of KDP was realistically reproduced by the cloud model with the KDP maximum in the dendritic growth layer (DGL) centered at the -15°C isotherm. The University of Oklahoma team has developed a methodology for polarimetric radar retrievals of such microphysical parameters of ice as ice water content (IWC), mean volume diameter (Dm), and total number concentration (Nt) of ice particles. These retrievals have been validated using in situ aircraft measurements during 6 field campaigns and proved to be quite robust and reliable. This allowed to build the first climatology of the vertical profiles of polarimetric radar variables and retrieved microphysical parameters for the three types of weather systems: continental MCSs, maritime MCSs, and tropical cyclones / hurricanes (Hu and Ryzhkov 2022). The data were collected by a multitude of the WSR-88D radars in 13 continental and 10 maritime MCSs and 11 landfalling hurricanes. The HIWC areas were identified within the examined storms and the corresponding “HIWC statistics” was compared with the “background” one without HIWC. An overarching conclusion of the study is that maritime tropical storms (MCSs and hurricanes) are characterized by smaller size ice in higher concentration compared to the continental MCSs. High ice water content in the HIWC areas is primarily caused by a strong jump in a number concentration of ice particles rather than the increase of their size compared to the “background” environment. This may point to the homogeneous nucleation of excessive amounts of supercooled droplets and / or secondary ice production as the possible origins of HIWC. Such a climatology provides a good observational reference for the modelers to evaluate the performance of their models. As an example, the in-depth analysis of the 20 May 2011 MC3E case shows that the advanced cloud models developed in the course of this study still tend to underestimate the number concentration of ice in the HIWC areas although they succeed in reproducing realistically looking vertical profiles of IWC and Nt. The results of the project research are summarized in 13 journal papers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Energy Storage Data Reporting in Perspective—Guidelines for Interpreting the Performance of Electrochemical Energy Storage Systems

Due to the tremendous importance of electrochemical energy storage, numerous new materials and electrode architectures for batteries and supercapacitors have emerged in recent years. Correctly characterizing these systems requires considerable time, effort, and experience to ensure proper metrics are reported. Many new nanomaterials show electrochemical behavior somewhere in between conventional double-layer capacitor and battery electrode materials, making their characterization a non-straightforward task. It is understandable that some researchers may be misinformed about how to rigorously characterize their materials and devices, which can result in inflation of their reported data. Additionally, this is not uncommon considering the current state of the field nearly requires record breaking performance for publication in high-impact journals. Incorrect characterization and data reporting misleads both the materials and device development communities, and it is the shared responsibility of the community to follow rigorous reporting methodologies to ensure published results are reliable to ensure constructive progress. This tutorial aims to clarify the main causes of inaccurate data reporting and to give examples of how researchers should proceed. The best practices for measuring and reporting metrics such as capacitance, capacity, coulombic and energy efficiencies, electrochemical impedance, and the energy and power densities of capacitive and pseudocapacitive materials are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Photocatalytic water splitting

With the goal of achieving large-scale H 2 production from renewable resources, water splitting into H 2 and O 2 using semiconductor photocatalysts (sometimes called artificial photosynthesis) has been studied for five decades. Unfortunately, the lack of rigour and reproducibility in the data collection and analysis of experimental results has hindered progress in the field. This Primer provides a comprehensive overview of proper characterization and evaluation of photocatalysts for overall water splitting. In particular, the Primer covers various pitfalls in photocatalysis research, best practices for reproducibility and reliable methods for conducting rigorous experiments. As a result, the recommendations are intended to reduce false positives in the literature and to promote progress towards a practical technology for producing H 2 from water by using sunlight.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying uncertainties on fission fragment mass yields with mixture density networks

Probabilistic machine learning techniques can learn both complex relations between input features and output quantities of interest as well as take into account stochasticity or uncertainty within a data set. In this initial work, we explore the use of one such probabilistic network, the mixture density network (MDN), to reproduce fission yields and their uncertainties. In this paper, we study mass yields for the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf, exploring the number of training samples needed for converged predictions, how different levels of uncertainty propagate from the training set to the MDN predictions, and how well physical constraints of the yields—such as normalization and symmetry—are upheld by the algorithm. Finally, we test the ability of the MDN to interpolate between and extrapolate beyond samples in the training set using energy-dependent mass yields for the neutron-induced fission on 235 U. The MDN provides a reliable way to include and predict uncertainties and is a promising path forward for supplementing sparse sets of nuclear data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗