Territory of the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands Energy Sector Risk Profile
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Raffety, Ashton↗
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Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands Energy Sector Risk Profile
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Raffety, Ashton↗
Assessing Effects of Climate Change on Legacy Waste at the Enewetak Atoll
The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is in the central Pacific Ocean ~4,500 km west of Hawaii. The Enewetak Atoll, located in the northwest part of the RMI, was the site for 43 nuclear weapon tests between 1948 and 1958. Fallout and deposition from the tests contaminated the island surfaces, lagoon waters and sediment, and nearby ocean waters at the atoll. In the 1970s, a cleanup effort collected radioactive waste and placed it in the Cactus Crater on Runit Island (also called the Runit Dome). In December 2021, Congress directed the U.S. Department of Energy to study the impacts of climate change on the Runit Dome nuclear waste disposal site. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) assembled a multidisciplinary team of climate scientists, ocean modelers, environmental scientists, and health physicists to assess the likely effects of remaining radionuclides at the Enewetak Atoll. PNNL’s approach focused on effects of tropical cyclones that were postulated to mobilize and transport contaminated lagoon sediments and result in human and biota exposure. PNNL’s study estimated (1) the radionuclide source term, (2) the effects of climate change on severe storms, (3) mobilization and transport of radionuclides, and (4) radiation dose to humans and biota. Radionuclides in the lagoon and/or ocean waters of the Enewetak Atoll were characterized by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) in 1972, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in 2015, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 2018. The RMI Nationwide Radiological Study was conducted in the early 1990s for radionuclides remaining in island soils. The 1972 AEC survey remains the most comprehensive source of radionuclide data on lagoon sediments. Climate change modeling at a regional scale in the central Pacific Ocean is limited. PNNL climate scientists simulated severe historical storms postulated to occur both in a recent climate (2015) and in the future (2090) using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model, employing a pseudo-global-warming technique. A postulated complete, future failure of the Runit Dome was also considered. PNNL developed a high-resolution regional ocean hydrodynamics model covering the entire RMI extended economic zone using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The FVCOM model was run using global reanalysis data for current climate and WRF-ARW simulation for the future climate. PNNL also developed a radionuclide fate and transport model using the FVCOM Integrated Compartment Model (FVCOM-ICM) to simulate the current and future mobilization and transport of radionuclides sorbed to lagoon sediments and the exchange of radionuclides between the water and sediment. FVCOM-ICM-predicted radionuclide concentrations were then used to estimate radiation dose to humans and biota at all islands of the Enewetak Atoll. Under current climate conditions, annual radiation exposures for the southern islands including Enewetak (Fred) and Medren (Elmer) were below the current U.S. standards. Radiation doses were somewhat elevated starting at Runit Island northward and westward to Enjebi Island (Janet). The islands in the northwest quadrant, particularly Bokoluo (Alice) and Bokombako (Belle), remain relatively contaminated. The islands in the southwestern quadrant have low contamination. The highest contribution to radiation doses comes from consumption of locally grown foods. Two radionuclides, 90Sr and 137Cs, contributed the greatest fraction for most terrestrial foods. In current climate conditions, the storms temporarily increased radionuclide concentrations in the lagoon waters, increasing the radiation dose slightly. In future conditions, doses are expected to be smaller, primarily because of the radioactive decay of the shorter-lived radioisotopes of 90Sr and 137Cs. This could make all islands in the far northwest of the atoll – except Bokombako (Belle) and perhaps Bokoluo (Alice) – suitable for residency. For the f
Prasad, Rajiv↗
Catalina Repower Feasibility Study: NREL Phases I & II Summary Report
Engineers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) supported Southern California Edison (SCE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by conducting technical and economic analyses for energy systems at Santa Catalina (Catalina) Island, which is located 22 miles off the coast of Long Beach, California. This effort was part of a broader Repower Catalina Feasibility Study that was also supported by NV5, an engineering consulting firm and project partner to NREL for this analysis. This document describes NREL’s techno-economic modeling and optimization analysis for the first two phases of this project which focus on supply-side generation and energy storage options for Catalina. SCE’s goal for this analysis is to determine a strategy for electricity generation on Catalina Island that results in lower energy costs, improved energy resiliency, and reduced air emissions. EPA goals for this effort are to reduce emissions of air pollution and encourage renewable energy development on contaminated and formerly contaminated lands when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. Currently, an on-island SCE power plant serves the Catalina Island electrical load with 6 reciprocating diesel generators totaling 9.4 MW; 23 propane-fueled microturbines totaling 1.5 MW; and a 1-MW, 7.2-MWh sodium sulfur battery energy storage system (BESS). In 2017, the electricity consumption on the island was 29.1 GWh, with an average load of 3.3 MW and peak load of approximately 5.5 MW. Considering new environmental standards on diesel generator emissions from California’s South Coast Air Quality Management District, a 60% renewable energy target for 2030 laid out in California’s Senate Bill 100, SCE’s Clean Power Electrification Pathway, and the characteristics of the island’s existing diesel generators, SCE is seeking to evaluate the technical and economic implications of different energy technology options to determine a path forward. Phases I and II of the Repower Catalina Feasibility Study, summarized in this document, evaluated the following: Interconnection with the mainland via an undersea cable; On-island fossil fuel generation, including diesel, propane, and/or liquified natural gas (LNG); On-island renewable energy (RE) technologies, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and wave energy devices; BESS to support the above generation technologies; Initial analysis of the potential impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures. Results indicate strong techno-economic potential for a mix of on-island diesel and/or propane generators, solar PV, BESS, and energy efficiency measures to help SCE and Catalina achieve their goals compliant with California’s emissions and clean energy standards while minimizing electricity life cycle costs (LCC) over the 30-year analysis period. This document summarizes the considerations and findings of Phases I and II, focusing on high-level takeaways from Phase I and more detailed results from Phase II, and discusses a potential path forward for Phase III.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Dynamic voltage frequency scaling based on active memory barriers
A processing unit includes compute units partitioned into one or islands that are provided with operating voltages and clock signals having clock frequencies independent of providing operating voltages or clock signals to other islands of compute units. The processing unit also includes dynamic voltage and frequency scaling (DVFS) hardware configured to compute one or more numbers of active memory barriers in the one or more islands. The DVFS hardware is also configured to modify the operating voltages or clock frequencies provided to the one or more islands in response to a change in numbers of active memory barriers in the one or more islands. In some cases, the operating voltage or clock frequency provided to an island is increased in response to the number of active memory barriers in the island decreasing. The operating voltage or clock frequency provided to the island is decreased in response to the number of active memory barriers in the island increasing.
Bharadwaj, Vedula Venkata Srikant↗
In situ mechanical characterization of a single cell-cell adhesion interface under large strain
A method of measuring a stress-strain curve in a cell-cell adhesion interface, the method including: providing a structure including a first movable island supported by a first beam, a second movable island supported by a second beam, and a gap therebetween connected by a pair of cells forming a junction, the pair of cells comprising a cell-cell adhesion interface having an initial length defined by a distance between nuclei of the pair of cells; moving the second movable island with a defined displacement; determining a displacement of the first movable island based on moving the second movable island; calculating a difference between the displacement of the first movable island and the defined displacement of the second movable island based on moving the second movable island; determining an applied strain in the cell-cell adhesion interface between the pair of cells based on the difference divided by the initial length of the cell-cell adhesion interface; calculating a force between the cell-cell adhesion interface of the pair of cells based on the displacement of the first movable island; calculating a stress in the cell-cell adhesion interface between the pair of cells based on the force; and determining the stress-strain curve of the cell-cell adhesion interface between the pair of cells by plotting the calculated stress against the applied strain.
Yang, Ruiguo↗
Grid Resiliency with a 100% Renewable Microgrid
San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E) installed America’s first and largest utility-scale microgrid in Borrego Springs in 2013. The first generation Borrego Springs Microgrid utilized diesel generators to form and stabilize the microgrid island, with support from grid-scale batteries and local solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. In this project, SDG&E in partnership with National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) demonstrated through modeling, simulation and utility field testing that blackstart and islanding of the microgrid can be led with 100% renewable, inverter based resources (IBRs), to help reduce community reliance on conventional generation resources. Through equipment upgrades, grid-forming island leader capability was transitioned to a battery IBR instead of the Borrego Springs Microgrid diesel generators. A new microgrid controller was integrated to the microgrid and programmed to control and manage multiple energy storage systems. Synchrophasor and other power quality data verified autonomous, high-speed response of the IBRs through blackstart, islanding, and load step testing. Results of project field evaluations provide distribution systems operators (DSO) with increased confidence that renewable, IBR can replace traditional generators to blackstart and island microgrids and rapidly establish stable island frequency with rapid changes in peak power demand. Importantly, the project validated the integration feasibility of a distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) controller that manages multiple grid-forming and grid-following IBRs, establishing a standard design interface to reduce the complexity of integrating new DERs in the future and supporting replication by the industry. As a result of learnings in this project, SDG&E has implemented the microgrid controller strategy at multiple other microgrid sites, thereby validating the replicability of the solution. Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations including power and controller HIL hardware — along with electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations of Borrego Springs Microgrid —informed adjustments to inverter parameters and were important to characterize the performance of the IBRs in relevant operating conditions before deployment. The EMT and HIL simulations of islanding the entire community are important contributions in providing confidence in IBR performance prior to future islanding of the community in the field. High-fidelity EMT and/or HIL simulation of IBRs can de-risk field operations, and its relevance and importance as a tool is increasing as distribution grids and microgrids become more complex and dynamic with an increasing proportion of renewable generation, distributed energy storage, and two-way power and energy flows.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Analytical model of plasma response to external magnetic perturbation in absence of no-slip condition
Recent simulation and experimental results suggest that the magnetic island and flow on a resonant surface often do not satisfy the “no-slip” condition in the steady state. A new theoretical model on a nonlinear plasma response to external magnetic perturbation in the absence of a no-slip condition is proposed. The model is composed of the equations for the evolution of both the width and phase of the magnetic island due to forced reconnection driven by the external magnetic perturbation, and the force-balance equation for the plasma flow. When the island width is much less than the resistive layer width, the island growth is governed by the linear Hahm–Kulsrud–Taylor solution in the presence of time-dependent plasma flow. In the other regime when the island width is much larger than the resistive layer width, the evolution of both the island width and phase can be described using the Rutherford theory. The island solution is used to construct the quasilinear electromagnetic force, which, together with the viscous one, contributes to the nonlinear variation in plasma flow. The no-slip condition assumed in the conventional error field theory is not imposed here, where the island oscillation frequency depends on but does not necessarily equal to the plasma flow frequency at the rational surface.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Effects of edge-localized electron cyclotron current drive on edge-localized mode suppression by resonant magnetic perturbations in DIII-D
Abstract According to recent DIII-D experiments (Logan et al 2024 Nucl. Fusion 64 014003), injecting edge localized electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) in the counter-plasma-current (counter- I p ) direction reduces the n = 3 resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) current threshold for edge-localized mode (ELM) suppression, while co- I p ECCD during the suppressed ELM phase causes a back transition to ELMing. This paper presents nonlinear two-fluid simulations on the ECCD manipulation of edge magnetic islands induced by RMP using the TM1 code. In the presence of a magnetic island chain at the pedestal-top, co- I p ECCD is found to decrease the island width and restore the initially degraded pedestal pressure when its radial deposition location is close to the rational surface of the island. With a sufficiently strong co- I p ECCD current, the RMP-driven magnetic island can be healed, and the pedestal pressure fully recovers to its initial ELMing state. On the contrary, counter- I p ECCD is found to increase the island width and further reduce the pedestal pressure to levels significantly below the peeling-ballooning-mode limited height, leading to even stationary ELM suppression. These simulations align with the results from DIII-D experiments. However, when multiple magnetic island chains are present at the pedestal-top, the ECCD current experiences substantial broadening, and its effects on the island width and pedestal pressure become negligible. Further simulations reveal that counter- I p ECCD enhances RMP penetration by lowering the penetration threshold, with the degree of reduction proportional to the amplitude of ECCD current. For the ∼1 MW ECCD in DIII-D, the predicted decrease in the RMP penetration threshold for ELM suppression is approximately 20%, consistent with experimental observations. These simulations indicate that edge-localized ECCD can be used to either facilitate RMP-driven ELM suppression or optimize the confinement degradation.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Designing a validation experiment for radio frequency condensation
Abstract Theoretical studies have suggested that nonlinear effects can lead to ‘radio frequency (RF) condensation’, where an initially broad current profile can coalesce in islands when they reach sufficient width. In suitable conditions, RF condensation can ‘self-focus’ the driven current to the center of an island, improving stabilization efficiency and reducing control complexity. In unsuitable conditions, the effect can prematurely deplete the RF energy before it reaches the island center, impairing stabilization. It is predicted that the RF condensation effect can significantly impact reactor-scale tokamaks. This paper presents a set of simulations investigating the conditions under which RF condensation might be encountered in present-day tokamaks. For concreteness, the calculations use equilibrium reconstructions for two shots from DIII-D and AUG. The Current Condensation Amid Magnetic Islands (OCCAMI) simulation code has been used for this investigation. The code takes as its input a numerically specified axisymmetric EFIT equilibrium solution, and it perturbatively constructs a 3D field with an island embedded at the appropriate rational surface. In the OCCAMI code, the GENRAY code is used for ray tracing and for calculating the power deposition along a ray trajectory, and GENRAY is coupled self-consistently to a solution of the thermal diffusion equation in the island. The simulation results described in the paper illuminate the conditions required for experimental validation of the theory of RF condensation. The simulations also provide an explanation of why the effect was not noticed in experiments prior to the publication of theoretical papers on the subject.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Imaging Phase Segregation in Nanoscale Li x CoO 2 Single Particles
Li x CoO 2 (LCO) is a common battery cathode material that has recently emerged as a promising material for other applications including electrocatalysis and as electrochemical random access memory (ECRAM). During charge– discharge cycling LCO exhibits phase transformations that are significantly complicated by electron correlation. While the bulk phase diagram for an ensemble of battery particles has been studied extensively, it remains unclear how these phases scale to nanometer dimensions and the effects of strain and diffusional anisotropy at the single-particle scale. Understanding these effects is critical to modeling battery performance and for predicting the scalability and performance of electrocatalysts and ECRAM. Here we investigate isolated, epitaxial LiCoO 2 islands grown by pulsed laser deposition. After electrochemical cycling of the islands, conductive atomic force microscopy (c-AFM) is used to image the spatial distribution of conductive and insulating phases. Above 20 nm island thicknesses, we observe a kinetically arrested state in which the phase boundary is perpendicular to the Li-planes; we propose a model and present image analysis results that show smaller LCO islands have a higher conductive fraction than larger area islands, and the overall conductive fraction is consistent with the lithiation state. Thinner islands (14 nm), with a larger surface to volume ratio, are found to exhibit a striping pattern, which suggests surface energy can dominate below a critical dimension. When increasing force is applied through the AFM tip to strain the LCO islands, significant shifts in current flow are observed, and underlying mechanisms for this behavior are discussed. The c-AFM images are compared with photoemission electron microscopy images, which are used to acquire statistics across hundreds of particles. Finally, the results indicate that strain and morphology become more critical to electrochemical performance as particles approach nanometer dimensions.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration
Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.
chance constrained optimization↗
Two-stage crash process in resistive drift ballooning mode driven ELM crash
We report a two-stage crash process in edge localized mode (ELM) driven by resistive drift-ballooning modes (RDBMs) numerically simulated in a full annular torus domain with a scale-separated four-field reduced MHD (RMHD) model using the BOUT++ framework. In the early nonlinear phase, the small first crash is triggered by linearly unstable RDBMs, and m/n=2/1 magnetic islands are nonlinearly excited by nonlinear coupling of RDBMs as well as their higher harmonics. Here, m is the poloidal mode number, n is the toroidal mode number, the q = 2 rational surface exists near the pressure gradient peak, and q is the safety factor. Simultaneously, middle-n RDBM turbulence develops but is poloidally localized around X-points of the magnetic islands, leading to the small energy loss. The second large crash occurs in the late nonlinear phase. Higher harmonics of m/n=2/1 magnetic islands well develop around the q = 2 surface via nonlinear coupling and make the magnetic field stochastic by magnetic island overlapping. Turbulence heat transport develops at X-points of higher harmonics of m/n=2/1 magnetic islands, resulting in the turbulence spreading in the poloidal direction. The large second crash is triggered when the turbulence covers the whole poloidal region so that the magnetic island generation and magnetic field stochastization before the large crash can be interpreted as ELM precursors. It is concluded that the ELM trigger is attributed to the turbulent spreading in the poloidal direction in synchronization with the magnetic field stochastization and the crash is driven by E × B convection rather than the conventional Rechester–Rosenbluth anomalous electron heat transport.
Seto, H. (ORCID:0000000259278643)↗
Electron cyclotron emission detection of neoclassical tearing modes for control for ITER
Successful operation of ITER requires control of magnetic instabilities including neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) that can degrade confinement and lead to disruption. Low latency detection by electron cyclotron emission (ECE) diagnostics has been demonstrated in a few current experiments. Using a synthetic diagnostic, we demonstrate low latency NTM detection for ITER with plasmas described by ITER IMAS database scenarios and with realistic limitations imposed on the instrumentation by these high temperature scenarios. 2/1 NTMs are detected 430 ms after magnetic island seeding and before island locking. The radiometer configuration was optimized using simulation, and the smallest detectable island size was explored. Island sizes of ∼3 cm are detectable at the 2/1 surface. The simulated signals incorporate recent physics models for island growth and rotation, which show early locking and continued island growth after locking and before disruption. This work determines limits for ITER ECE spatial resolution imposed by relativistic broadening of channels, which informs hardware design. Real-time detection is demonstrated in hardware that is required by ITER, including on an NI PXI-7853R FPGA system. Development of a synthetic diagnostic and details of the hardware will be discussed.
Cyclotron radiation↗
Predictions of m/n = 2/1 neoclassical tearing mode stabilization via high field side lower hybrid current drive on the DIII-D tokamak
Neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) are a class of resistive instabilities that arise in tokamaks at rational surfaces and form magnetic islands. These islands flatten the pressure gradient, reducing plasma performance and may lead to disruptions if they grow large enough. Driving current within the island can stabilize the NTM, which has been achieved with electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) on multiple devices. An alternative to ECCD is lower hybrid current drive (LHCD), which offers the advantages of increased current drive efficiency and reduced system cost. LHCD has been viewed as poorly suited for NTM suppression due to the large spatial extent of the driven current when in the multi-pass absorption regime (as has been the case in all past LHCD experiments). However, the driven current is more localized when in the single pass absorption regime, as is predicted for the DIII-D high field side (HFS) LHCD experiment. This work evaluates the feasibility of NTM suppression with HFS LHCD on DIII-D by predicting the island growth rate for a set of representative DIII-D plasmas via the modified Rutherford equation with and without the application of LHCD. In these plasmas, NTM suppression is achieved at reasonable power levels, even with finite misalignment between LH current and the island. The effect of current condensation was included and found to be most significant at smaller island sizes, assuming an experimentally typical temperature perturbation amplitude of 10%.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Non-disruptive error field measurement in DIII-D low safety factor plasmas and projection to ITER
Previous experiments in DIII-D (Paz-Soldan et al 2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 126007) introduced a method to identify intrinsic error fields (EFs) in tokamaks with minimal disruption risk by promptly healing driven magnetic islands during the conventional 'compass scan'. This paper presents recent experimental and numerical advancements in extending this approach to low q 95 plasmas, and projects its applicability to ITER. Non-disruptive EF measurement is achieved at q 95 = 4.5 and 3.9 without any initial EF correction (EFC) by reducing the time between the occurrence of the locked mode (LM) and control action to 10 ms and increasing the density 50%–100%. However, 50% correction of the intrinsic EF is required to achieve island healing at q 95 = 3.2 with 10 ms delay for the control action. Nonlinear two-fluid modeling with the TM1 code reproduces the DIII-D experimental observations, indicating that promptly turning off the 3D coil current reduces both magnetic island width and electromagnetic force, while raising the density increases plasma viscosity, facilitating magnetic island healing. The simulations show that for scenarios with q 95 = 3.2, lowering the control action time to 5 ms will lead to island healing without EFC. TM1 simulations are extended to future ITER scenarios with 5 MA and 7.5 MA plasma currents, predicting the dependence of required density rise on action time and EF amplitude. These simulations indicate that, benefiting from the much longer resistive time, island healing can be successfully achieved in ITER when taking control action 100–500 ms after a LM occurrence.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Experimental Characterization Test of a Grid-Forming Inverter for Microgrid Applications
Standardized experimental testing protocols for grid forming (GFM) inverters to ensure expected operation under both normal and contingency conditions do not exist. Such protocols increase the confidence of system owner/operators that an inverter deployed in a proposed system will engage in typical behaviors to ensure interoperability with other units and ancillary equipment (e.g. protection equipment). This paper presents systematic and comprehensive test protocols to evaluate the performance of GFM inverters under the following operational configurations: islanded operation, heterogeneous islanded operation (parallel with a synchronous generator), grid-connected operation, and transition operation. A commercial GFM inverter is used to verify the test protocols and to understand the inverter's performance and functionalities. In particular, required configuration and tuning of the inverter will be explained in the full paper to enrich the testing protocol.
black start↗
Hawai‘i Play Fairway (Final Report)
Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗