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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Linking habitat suitability with a longleaf pine-hardwood model: Building a species-predictive fire-land management framework

Active management of fire-dependent ecosystems for specific species leads to complex tradeoffs, which affect conservation outcomes to other species. Therefore a multi-species evaluation of management actions is required. Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) can help in predicting the likelihood of species occurrence using corresponding environmental variables and empirical relationships that link occurrence with specific environmental conditions. Incorporating multiple species into HSMs and relating them to habitat dynamics is crucial for ecosystems that require active management with prescribed fire. To address this issue, we developed multi-species HSM driven within an existing population model of the longleaf pine-hardwood ecosystem to assess the suitability of an ecosystem given different fire management strategies and environmental conditions. The population model used in this study provides spatial and temporal changes of longleaf pine-hardwood habitat structure in response to fire. These habitat values are used by the HSM to calculate habitat suitability for three threatened and endangered faunal species of this ecosystem, which all thrive with frequent fire, but have unique habitat requirements. Transient habitat conditions are traced to predict longleaf pine ecosystem trajectories under various management strategies, thereby evaluating current land management actions, such as thinning or prescribed fire frequencies. We tested a suite of environmental conditions to emphasize the sensitivity of the species to different fire management actions. The results of our modeling suggest that maximum suitable habitat for all three species can be achieved with fire frequency occurring at approximately once every three years. The modeling results support current management actions and provide a new habitat assessment tool that incorporates ecological factors for multiple species, thus providing for habitat optimization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial evidence of cryptic methane cycling and methylotrophic metabolisms along a land–ocean transect in salt marsh sediment

Methylotrophic methanogenesis in the sulfate-rich zone of coastal and marine sediments couples with anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM), forming the cryptic methane cycle. This study provides evidence of cryptic methane cycling in the sulfate-rich zone across a land–ocean transect of four stations–two brackish, one marine, and one hypersaline–within the Carpinteria Salt Marsh Reserve (CSMR), southern California, USA. Samples from the top 20 cm of sediment from the transect were analyzed through geochemical and molecular (16S rRNA) techniques, in-vitro methanogenesis incubations, and radiotracer incubations utilizing 35 S-SO 4 , 14 C-mono-methylamine, and 14 C-CH 4 . Sediment methane concentrations were consistently low (3 to 28 µM) at all stations, except for the marine station, where methane increased with depth reaching 665 µM. Methanogenesis from mono-methylamine was detected throughout the sediment at all stations with estimated CH 4 production rates in the sub-nanomolar to nanomolar range per cm 3 sediment and day. 16S rRNA analysis identified methanogenic archaea (Methanosarcinaceae, Methanomassiliicoccales, and Methanonatronarchaeacea) capable of producing methane from methylamines in sediment where methylotrophic methanogenesis was found to be active. Metabolomic analysis of porewater showed mono-methylamine was mostly undetectable (<3 µM) or present in trace amounts (<10 µM) suggesting rapid metabolic turnover. In-vitro methanogenesis incubations of natural sediment showed no linear methane buildup, suggesting a process limiting methane emissions. AOM activity, measured with 14 C-CH 4 , overlapped with methanogenesis from mono-methylamine activity at all stations, with rates ranging from 0.03 to 19.4 nmol cm −3 d −1 . Geochemical porewater analysis showed the CSMR sediments are rich in sulfate and iron. Porewater sulfate concentrations (9–91 mM) were non-limiting across the transect, supporting sulfate reduction activity (1.5–2,506 nmol cm −3 d −1 ). Porewater sulfide and iron (II) profiles indicated that the sediment transitioned from a predominantly iron-reducing environment at the two brackish stations to a predominantly sulfate-reducing environment at the marine and hypersaline stations, which coincided with the presence of phyla (Desulfobacterota) involved in these processes. AOM activity overlapped with sulfate reduction and porewater iron (II) concentrations suggesting that AOM is likely coupled to sulfate and possibly iron reduction at all stations. However, 16S rRNA analysis identified anaerobic methanotrophs (ANME-2) only at the marine and hypersaline stations while putative methanogens were found in sediment across all stations. In one sediment horizon at the marine station, methanogen families (Methanosarcinaceae, Methanosaetaceae, Methanomassiliicoccales, and Methanoregulaceae) and ANME 2a,2b, and 2c groups were found together. Collectively, our data suggest that at the brackish stations methanogens alone may be involved in cryptic methane cycling, while at the marine and hypersaline stations both groups may be involved in the process. Differences in rate constants from incubations with 14 C-labeled methane and mono-methylamine suggest a non-methanogenic process oxidizing mono-methylamine to inorganic carbon, likely mediated by sulfate-reducing bacteria. Understanding the potential competition of sulfate reducers with methanogens for mono-methylamine needs further investigation as it might be another important process responsible for low methane emissions in salt marshes.

Anaerobic oxidation of methane↗
DOE OSTI2020

A geospatial model for the analysis of time-dependent land subsidence induced by reservoir depletion

Land subsidence due to fluid depletion is an outcome of physical processes operating across a wide range of time and length scales. Although geomechanical models are crucial to simulate reservoir compaction and predict its long-term fate, their use across large regions often bears prohibitive computational costs. To overcome this obstacle, this paper proposes a simplified modelling framework consisting of (i) a near-field numerical solver simulating the coupling between fluid flow and rock deformation with reference to a simplified one-dimensional geometry and (ii) a far-field geospatial algorithm mapping ground settlements across a region through the superposition of poroelastic computations at multiple wells. The model computes the delay between depletion history and reservoir compaction in proximity of a producing well by assuming basal depletion of a fluid-saturated deformable disk, while the Geertsma solution of nucleus of strain is used to extrapolate the impact of such time-varying reservoir compaction around the well. This approach has been used to back-analyze the spatio-temporal progression of subsidence at the Groningen gas field. The results are compared against measurements collected over 50 year of production at 25 benchmark locations scattered over an area of 900 km 2 . It is shown that coupled simulations based on average values of rock compressibility and permeability lead to nonlinear trends of subsidence evolution in good agreement with field measurements, while uncoupled analyses overpredict settlements by more than 70%. Lastly, synthetic forecasts based on different rates of depletion were provided. The results suggest that slower depletion rates lead to lower subsidence at a given time, and that residual subsidence may continue to develop for several decades after interruption of production activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intercomparison of flood inundation models across land use types and hydrological flood stages

Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) model selection is a key operational decision because accurate, rapid mapping underpins early warning and resource allocation. FIM performance is context-dependent and can vary with hydrograph phase, land-use/land-cover (LULC), and the evaluation benchmark. Intercomparison studies typically assess a single near-peak snapshot against one reference dataset. Here, we provide a context-stratified intercomparison across (i) multiple hydrograph phases, (ii) LULC classes, and (iii) benchmark types, for five FIM approaches spanning a wide range of physical complexity and operational cost (TRITON, LISFLOOD-FP, HEC-RAS 2D, ARC-Curve2Flood, and OWP HAND-FIM). We use the Hurricane Matthew flood (2016) in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, USA, as a case study. Using high-resolution remote sensing-derived flood inundation maps, hand-labeled points, and building footprints, we assess model skill across two rising and two falling hydrograph limbs and across major LULC types. Results show that model rankings shift systematically across contexts: LISFLOOD-FP ranks highest in three of four flood phases, while TRITON leads during one rising limb phase; LISFLOOD-FP performs best in vegetated areas, whereas HEC-RAS improves relative performance in agricultural and urban areas; and benchmark choice influences conclusions, with LISFLOOD-FP performing best for flooded-building detection in the late falling limb, while TRITON ranks highest against hand-labeled points. We also report representative wall-clock runtimes for each workflow to provide use-case context for operational feasibility. Together, these results offer transferable guidance for model selection and for designing large-scale, benchmark-aware FIM intercomparison studies.

Nikrou, Parvaneh [University of Alabama]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of cycling conditions on lithium-ion battery performance for electric vertical takeoff and landing applications

The development of better electrochemical energy storage systems has sparked significant interest in using Li-ion batteries for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) applications. To ensure the optimal performance and safety of onboard batteries, their behavior under different charging/discharging protocols and environmental conditions must be understood. Here, this paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of commercial Li-ion batteries for eVTOL applications, focusing on their responses to varying charging/discharging strategies and mechanical vibrations experienced during flight. Through controlled experiments, the effects of rapid cycling on battery performance were investigated, including effects on lifespan, capacity, and internal resistance. Additionally, the impact of mechanical vibrations on battery behavior was assessed to identify potential challenges for onboard batteries. The results of this study revealed intriguing insights into the interplay between temperature, vibration, and battery performance. This work contributes to the broader adoption of electric aerial transportation, promising a greener and safer future for urban mobility.

18650 cells↗
DOE OSTI2021

Post-landing major element quantification using SuperCam laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

The SuperCam instrument on the Perseverance Mars 2020 rover uses a pulsed 1064 nm laser to ablate targets at a distance and conduct laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) by analyzing the light from the resulting plasma. SuperCam LIBS spectra are preprocessed to remove ambient light, noise, and the continuum signal present in LIBS observations. Prior to quantification, spectra are masked to remove noisier spectrometer regions and spectra are normalized to minimize signal fluctuations and effects of target distance. In some cases, the spectra are also standardized or binned prior to quantification. To determine quantitative elemental compositions of diverse geologic materials at Jezero crater, Mars, we use a suite of 1198 laboratory spectra of 334 well-characterized reference samples. The samples were selected to span a wide range of compositions and include typical silicate rocks, pure minerals (e.g., silicates, sulfates, carbonates, oxides), more unusual compositions (e.g., Mn ore and sodalite), and replicates of the sintered SuperCam calibration targets (SCCTs) onboard the rover. For each major element (SiO 2 , TiO 2 , Al 2 O 3 , FeO T , MgO, CaO, Na 2 O, K 2 O), the database was subdivided into five “folds” with similar distributions of the element of interest. One fold was held out as an independent test set, and the remaining four folds were used to optimize multivariate regression models relating the spectrum to the composition. We considered a variety of models, and selected several for further investigation for each element, based primarily on the root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) on the test set, when analyzed at 3 m. In cases with several models of comparable performance at 3 m, we incorporated the SCCT performance at different distances to choose the preferred model. Shortly after landing on Mars and collecting initial spectra of geologic targets, we selected one model per element. Subsequently, with additional data from geologic targets, some models were revised to ensure results that are more consistent with geochemical constraints. The calibration discussed here is a snapshot of an ongoing effort to deliver the most accurate chemical compositions with SuperCam LIBS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vegetation-induced asymmetric diurnal land surface temperatures changes across global climate zones

Unprecedented global vegetation greening during past decades is well known to affect annual and seasonal land surface temperatures (LST). However, the impact of observed vegetation cover change on diurnal LST across global climatic zones is not well understood. In this study, using global climatic time-series datasets, we investigated the long-term growing season daytime and nighttime LST changes globally and explored associated dominant contributors including vegetation and climate factors including air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. Results revealed asymmetric growing season mean daytime and nighttime LST warming (0.16 °C/10a and 0.30 °C/10a, respectively) globally from 2003 to 2020, as a result, the diurnal LST range (DLSTR) declined at 0.14 °C/10a. The sensitivity analysis indicated the LST response to changes in LAI, precipitation, and SSRD mainly concentrated during daytime instead of nighttime, however, which showed comparable sensitivities for air temperature. Combining the sensitivities results and the observed LAI and climate trends, we found rising air temperature contributes to 0.24 ± 0.11 °C/10a global daytime LST warming and 0.16 ± 0.07 °C/10a nighttime LST warming, turns to be the dominant contributor to the LST changes. Increased LAI cooled global daytime LST (–0.068 ± 0.096 °C/10a) while warmed nighttime LST (0.064 ± 0.046 °C/10a); hence LAI dominates declines in DLSTR trends (–0.12 ± 0.08 °C/10a), despite some daynight process variations across climate zones. In Boreal regions, reduced DLSTR was due to nighttime warming from LAI increases. In other climatic zones, daytime cooling, and DLSTR decline, was induced by increased LAI. Biophysically, the pathway from air temperature heats the surface through sensible heat and increased downward longwave radiation during day and night, while the pathway from LAI cools the surface by enhancing energy redistribution into latent heat rather than sensible heat during the daytime. These empirical findings of diverse asymmetric responses could help calibrate and improve biophysical models of diurnal surface temperature feedback in response to vegetation cover changes in different climate zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water Quality Effects of Economically Viable Land Use Change in the Mississippi River Basin under the Renewable Fuel Standard

Demand for biofuel production driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) has coincided with increased land in corn production and increasing nitrogen (N) loss to the Gulf of Mexico. Diversifying cropland with perennial energy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass) may reduce N loss and improve water quality. However, the extent of these benefits depends on the mix of biomass feedstocks (corn stover, perennials) incentivized by the RFS2 and the extent to which energy crops displace N-intensive row crops. We developed an integrated economic-biophysical model to quantify the water quality impacts of three potential policy scenarios that provided corn ethanol at levels before the RFS2 (RFS1 baseline); 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol (corn ethanol only); or 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol in addition to corn ethanol (corn + cellulosic ethanol). Our results showed that economically optimal locations for perennial energy crop production were distributed across idle cropland with lower intrinsic N loss than active cropland. We found stover removal incentivized by the RFS2 offset N loss benefits of perennial energy crops. Furthermore, this finding suggests that targeted incentives for N loss reduction are needed to supplement the RFS2 to induce displacement of N-intensive row crops with energy crops to reduce N losses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Potential and Cost of Carbon Dioxide Removal Using Direct Air Capture with Land-Based Wind and Utility-Scale Photovoltaics

The rapid deployment of direct air capture and storage (DACS) is critical for achieving emission targets, necessitating precise evaluation of the scale and cost of carbon dioxide removal. This study examines the availability of land, electricity generation, and geologic CO 2 storage within the United States, estimating a technical potential for low-temperature, adsorbent-based DACS to remove approximately 9 gigatonnes of CO 2 annually. By 2050, a substantial portion of this removal could be achieved at net-removed costs below $\$$300/tonneCO 2 , though costs are highly variable depending on factors such as facility scale, construction expenses, climate-dependent productivity and heating efficiency, and geologic storage conditions. In the short term, DACS deployment will help identify key research priorities for advancing technology and reducing removal costs. Concurrently, there is an urgent need for scientifically robust and standardized frameworks for monitoring, reporting, and verifying DACS performance across both established and emerging technologies and energy sources.

Carbon capture↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observational Evidence of State‐Dependent Positive and Negative Land Surface Feedback on Afternoon Deep Convection Over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The detection of soil moisture‐precipitation feedback is complicated by the dependence of feedback sign on atmospheric state and cloud types. We evaluated responses of convective clouds to changes in surface evaporative fraction (EF) from satellite and ground‐based measurements over the Southern Great Plains in summer months. Strong responses to EF were inferred only after accounting for tropospheric states supporting systematically positive or negative responses. State dependence (inferred from controlled model experiments) explains the weak response found in previous studies. The probability of transitions from shallow to deep cumulus, and subsequent precipitation onset, increases by 58% over drier surfaces in weakly stratified environments having deeper boundary layers. Boundary layer dynamics play a more important role than low‐level relative humidity in these environments. Wetter surfaces yield increased deep convection in moist and thermally stratified environments. The distinct pathways of convective initiation over dry and wet land surfaces can play important roles in drought onset and termination.

Qiu, Shaoyue↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mathematical Reconstruction of Land Carbon Models From Their Numerical Output: Computing Soil Radiocarbon From C Dynamics

Radiocarbon ( 14 C) is a powerful tracer of the global carbon cycle that is commonly used to assess carbon cycling rates in various Earth system reservoirs and as a benchmark to assess model performance. Therefore, it has been recommended that Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 report predicted radiocarbon values for relevant carbon pools. However, a detailed representation of radiocarbon dynamics may be an impractical burden on model developers. Here, we present an alternative approach to compute radiocarbon values from the numerical output of an ESM that does not explicitly represent these dynamics. The approach requires computed 12 C stocks and fluxes among all carbon pools for a particular simulation of the model. From this output, a time-dependent linear compartmental system is computed with its respective state-transition matrix. Using transient atmospheric 14 C values as inputs, the state-transition matrix is then applied to compute radiocarbon values for each pool, the average value for the entire system, and component fluxes. We demonstrate the approach with ELMv1-ECA, the land component of an ESM model that explicitly represents 12 C, and 14 C in 7 soil pools and 10 vertical layers. Results from our proposed method are highly accurate (relative error <0.01%) compared with the ELMv1-ECA 12 C and 14 C predictions, demonstrating the potential to use this approach in CMIP6 and other model simulations that do not explicitly represent 14 C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

SSP‐Based Land‐Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections

Abstract To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North‐American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA‐CORDEX) simulations, but with future LUCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related to a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). We examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without two urban and agricultural LUC scenarios that follow SSP3 and SSP5 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by one global climate model, the MPI‐ESM, under the RCP8.5 scenario. We find that LUCs following different societal trends under the SSPs can significantly affect climate projections in different ways. In regions of significant cropland expansion over previously forested area, projected annual mean temperature increases are diminished by around 0.5°C–1.0°C. Across all seasons, where urbanization is high, projected temperature increases are magnified. In particular, summer mean temperature projections are up to 4°C–5°C greater and minimum and maximum temperature projections are increased by 2.5°C–6°C, amounts that are on par with the warming due to GHG‐forced climate change. Warming is also enhanced in the urban surroundings. Future urbanization also has a large influence on precipitation projections during summer, increasing storm intensity, event length, and the overall amount over urbanized areas, and decreasing precipitation in surrounding areas.

Bukovsky, Melissa S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Abstract Southeast Asia is a region known for active land‐use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO 2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process‐based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book‐keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil‐palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three Decades of Divergent Land Use and Plant Community Change Alters Soil C and N Content in Tallgrass Prairie

Frequent fire and grazing by megafauna are important determinants of tallgrass prairie plant community structure. However, fire suppression and removal of native grazers have altered these natural disturbance regimes and changed grassland plant communities with potential long-term consequences for soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) storage. We investigated multidecade changes in soil C and N pools in response to contrasting long-term burning and grazing treatments. Fire suppression with or without grazers and exclusion of grazers in annually burned prairie increased soil C content and shifted the δ 13 C signature of soil C over time, concomitant with changes in plant community composition. Soil δ 13 C values indicated that increased soil C content was associated with an increased contribution from plants using a C 3 photosynthetic pathway (i.e., woody shrubs) under fire suppression. Soil N content also increased when fire was suppressed, relative to frequently burned grassland, but the rate of increase was slower when grazers were present. Additionally, changes in δ 15 N values suggested that grazing increased the openness of the N cycle, presumably due to greater N losses. By coupling long-term fire and grazing treatments with plant community data and soil samples archived over three decades, we demonstrate that human-caused changes to natural disturbance regimes in a tallgrass prairie significantly alter soil C and N cycles through belowground changes associated with shifts in the plant community. Since natural disturbance regimes have been altered in grasslands across the world, our results are relevant for understanding the long-term biogeochemical consequences of these ongoing land use changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Precipitation Displacement of a Simulated MCS to Changes in Land Surface Conditions

Abstract This study investigates the role of the land surface on the precipitation produced by an elevated mesoscale convective system (MCS) in Iowa between 24–25 June 2015 during the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign. Previous studies have shown a strong effect of low‐level atmospheric moisture on the location of this MCS. A series of semi‐idealized and realistic simulations with irrigation are conducted to understand the effect of moisture perturbations on the MCS precipitation displacement. In general, numerical simulations place the MCS east of the observed location. Adding moisture directly in the low‐level atmosphere in the semi‐idealized experiments reduces this displacement error. However, experiments with perturbed soil moisture result in drying over Iowa induced by moisture flux divergence from cooler low‐level temperatures and higher surface pressure, causing the MCS to move further to the east. The irrigation impact on low‐level moisture is highly dependent on the length of simulation period. Shorter simulations on the order of days generate similar drying over Iowa but the opposite is found for month‐long simulations. Despite the lack of low‐level moistening in the perturbed soil moisture and short‐term irrigation experiments, the sensitivity to low‐level moisture is similar in all runs. More low‐level moisture generates a more convectively unstable environment with less inhibition and a lower level of free convection that leads to more rapid MCS development and a change in MCS location.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synoptic Drivers of Atmospheric River Induced Precipitation Near Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) that reach the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) transport anomalous moisture from lower latitudes and can impact the AIS via extreme precipitation and increased downward longwave radiation. ARs contribute significantly to the interannual variability of precipitation over the AIS and thus are likely to play a key role in understanding future changes in the surface mass balance of the AIS. Dronning Maud Land (DML) is one of four maxima in AR frequency over coastal East Antarctica, with AR precipitation explaining 77% of the interannual variability in precipitation for this region. We employ a 16-node self-organizing map (SOM) trained with MERRA-2 sea-level pressure anomalies to identify synoptic-scale environments associated with landfalling ARs in and around DML. Node composites of atmospheric variables reveal common drivers of precipitation associated with ARs reaching DML including anomalous high-low surface pressure couplets, anomalously high integrated water vapor, and coastal barrier jets. Using a quasi-geostrophic framework, we find that upward vertical motion associated with the occlusion process of attendant cyclones dominates atmospheric lift in AR environments. We further identify mechanisms that explain the variability in AR precipitation intensity across nodes, such as the lift associated with the occlusion process of attendant cyclones and the spatial coincidence of ascent induced by the occlusion process and frontogenesis. Here, the latter suggests that ARs making landfall during the mature phase of cyclogenesis result in higher precipitation intensity compared to landfalling ARs that occur during the occluded phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation and Optimization of Snow Albedo Scheme in Noah-MP Land Surface Model Using In Situ Spectral Observations in the Colorado Rockies

The Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) ground snow albedo algorithm is commonly used in land-surface models (LSM), weather forecasting and research applications. This study addresses key uncertainties in BATS simulated ground snow albedo within the Noah-MP LSM framework through evaluation and optimization of the Noah-MP BATS ground snow albedo formulation using 2-band (visible and near-infrared (NIR)) in situ albedo observations at Rocky Mountain field stations. The Noah-MP BATS ground snow albedo scheme is extremely sensitive to its input parameters. Namely, an ensemble generated by varying BATS input parameters within potentially plausible ranges provides an average daily range (maximum ensemble member minus minimum ensemble member) of ground snow albedo exceeding 0.45 in visible and NIR bands. Parameter optimization improves agreement between simulated and in situ observed ground snow albedo in visible, NIR and broadband spectrums. Importantly, optimized parameters result in reduced biases relative to observed fresh-snow albedo and better agreement with observed albedo decay. Our analysis across different sites supports that the optimized BATS ground snow albedo parameters are appropriate to transfer in space and time, at least within the region studied (the central-southern Rocky Mountains). The primary error source remaining after parameter optimization is that observed fresh-snow albedo is highly variable, particularly in the NIR spectrum, whereas BATS fresh-snow albedo is constant, an issue which requires further investigation. This study shows significant correlations between observed fresh-snow albedo and surface meteorological conditions (e.g., downward shortwave radiation and temperature) which can support future model development that attempts to include a time-varying formulation for fresh-snow albedo.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗